Last night, the Texas Longhorns took the first and easiest step in their pursuit of an improbable Big 12 title, dispatching No. 10 seed TCU, 70-57. Texas must win the conference tournament to avoid missing the NCAA tournament for the first time in 15 years, which means that the young Horns have to put together four wins in four days. With the first victory under their belt, things now get much tougher for Rick Barnes’ inconsistent bunch.

Awaiting the Horns in the quarterfinals are the experienced Kansas State Wildcats, who beat the Horns by a combined 38 points in the team’s two meetings earlier this year. It has long been said that it’s tough to beat the same team three times in a season, but those prior results offer Texas fans little reason for optimism about tonight’s match-up. Even in the relatively-close 12-point loss to Kansas State in Austin, Texas was out of the game for the entire second half, and trailed by as many as 19 points.

Ken Pomeroy gives the Horns a 27% chance to win, predicting a six-point margin of victory for the ‘Cats. The Longhorns will have to overcome those odds and what will amount to a home crowd for KSU if they want to keep their NCAA dreams alive.

Meet the Wildcats

For an in-depth look at the Kansas State roster and the team’s style of play, check out LRT’s game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first match-up

When Texas and Kansas State first faced off on January 30th, the game was quickly out of reach. The Longhorns had two leads in the first four minutes, but trailed 9-7 at the under-16 media timeout. Texas would never get any closer, falling victim to a brutal stretch of offensive inefficiency. For a span of more than 12 minutes in the first half, Texas managed only eight points, with all of them coming from Sheldon McClellan.

The Longhorns did manage to get some good looks early in the game, but could not make any buckets. With shots not falling, Texas only made things worse by constantly turning it over and giving up easy points to the Wildcats. On the night, Texas ended 27.5% of their possessions with a turnover and allowed KSU to score 33 points off of those miscues. In a lopsided 83-57 loss, those wasted possessions and free points were easily the difference in the game.

Most troubling for Texas fans is that this beatdown came with Rodney McGruder limited due to foul trouble and Will Spradling (No. 55) playing with a broken nose he suffered in the first half. With those two only chipping in 12 points, it was Texas-born big man Thomas Gipson (No. 42) who dominated the game, scoring 17 points and grabbing seven boards in only 21 minutes on the court.

The rematch

Even with Myck Kabongo back in the lineup, things did not get much better for Texas when they hosted Kansas State on February 23rd. The Longhorns failed to challenge the Kansas State shooters all afternoon, allowing the Wildcats to knock down 50% of their 18 three-point attempts.

Texas still managed to find itself down just three points late in the first half, but a disastrous exchange shoved the momentum to the Kansas State sideline before the teams headed to the locker room. With 22 seconds left, it appeared the Wildcats would hold for the last shot. Instead, Javan Felix fouled Angel Rodriguez (No. 13), who knocked down a pair of free throws. Kabongo then turned it over with just two seconds left in the half, and the Wildcats raced down the court for a three from Shane Southwell (No. 1) just before the horn.

Things continued to deteriorate in the second half. The Longhorns took more than four minutes to score a basket, allowing Kansas State to extend its lead out to fifteen points. Texas never recovered, trailing by as many as 19 points midway through the half. The Horns closed the gap for cosmetic purposes, but still dropped the final decision at home, 81-69.

Kabongo led the way for Texas, scoring what was then his career high of 24 points. McClellan came off the bench to score 15 points, rebounding quickly from his benching in the TCU game just five days earlier. Both players were able to score in transition and Kabongo drove to the rack in half-court sets, but otherwise the offense was bogged down.

The Longhorns also again struggled to keep Kansas State from reclaiming missed shots. The Wildcats snagged 41.4% of their offensive rebounding opportunities in Austin, improving upon the impressive 40% mark they had posted in Manhattan. Those extra chances only resulted in seven second-chance points for K-State, but they demoralized the Longhorn defense when it did manage to force a missed shot.

Keys to the game

1) Look for transition opportunities – In both games against Kansas State, the Texas offense had a very difficult time scoring in their half-court sets, but did find some success on the break in Austin. Unfortunately, the Wildcats take good care of the ball, turning it over on only 18.4% of their possessions. That means that transition opportunities for Texas will have to come off of missed K-State shots. Of course, the Horns have had difficulties winning defensive rebounds against the Wildcats, so this could be a very tall order.

2) Communicate and rotate on defense – Kansas State’s offense can look like a well-oiled machine when it is clicking, as the Longhorns discovered when the ‘Cats sliced them up with crisp ball movement in Austin. In addition, Rodriguez has the ability to slash through defenses and pull defenders away from the K-State bigs inside and the shooters waiting on the perimeter. The Longhorns must play sound team defense, communicate, and rotate quickly if they hope to disrupt a Kansas State offense that scored 1.26 points per possession against them in their two earlier meetings.

3) Aggression from the guards and wings – Texas found success in the second half of last night’s game when Kabongo, McClellan, and Julien Lewis started attacking with the bounce and making harder cuts off the ball. As a result, the Horns posted a free-throw rate of 82% against TCU, meaning that they shot more than eight free throws for every ten field goal attempts. Coming on the heels of a 62.7% free-throw rate against Texas Tech, it appears that the normally-stagnant Texas offense is finally making an effort to grind out points at the line.

Combine this recent trend with Kansas State’s penchant for sending opponents to the stripe, and the Longhorns may be able to pile up some points. Even if Texas does not end up drawing many fouls by attacking with the bounce, any sort of aggression will be an improvement. Static possessions with excessive perimeter passing and challenged looks late in the shot clock have unfortunately been the norm for Texas for much of the season. If the ballhandlers can be aggressive, while Lewis and McClellan work hard to get open off the ball, Texas can stay competitive this evening. If not, the Horns will likely be victims of a third K-State beatdown this year.

The Texas Longhorns open play in the Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship with one, straightforward goal: win the whole damned thing. For the Longhorns, anything less than that will mean an end to a 14-year streak of NCAA appearances. And while Texas is hoping to preserve its historic streak, the rest of the program’s history is stacked against it. The Longhorns have never won the Big 12 Championship, despite appearing in the finals on six different occasions.

Even getting to that championship will be extremely difficult, as Texas must win three games in a row to reach that point. Until Saturday’s overtime win at Texas Tech, the Longhorns had not even strung together two consecutive victories in league play. Furthermore, Texas would still have to get past Kansas State and then either Oklahoma State or Baylor, three teams which the Horns posted a 1-5 record against in the regular season.

Of course, the old adage holds that you must take it one game at a time. For Texas, that would be sage advice. Although the Horns open tournament play against last-place TCU, they have to remember that the Horned Frogs have pulled off surprising upsets to earn their two league victories. Earlier this season, TCU shocked the college basketball world with a home win over a Top 5 Kansas team. On Saturday, they wrapped up their regular season by building a massive lead against Oklahoma and then hanging on for the improbable win. If Texas makes the mistake of looking ahead to a possible matchup with Kansas State tomorrow night, the Horns might not even get there.

Meet the Horned Frogs

For an in-depth look at the TCU roster and the team’s style of play, check out LRT’s preview of the first match-up between these two teams.

The first meeting

Texas had to grind it out with TCU in the first game, which saw only 57 possessions on the night. Even with such a slow tempo, the Longhorns were able to build a lead as large as 19 points and won the game by a 17-point final margin. Texas used stifling defense to limit the already-anemic TCU offense to just 0.753 points per possession, while having one of its best shooting nights of the season on the other end.

One reason Texas was able to get so many good looks is that the team made it a point to work the ball inside-out against TCU. Connor Lammert cracked double-digits in points for the first time in his collegiate career, logging 10 on a perfect 5-for-5 shooting night. Since then, the freshman has continued to play with confidence, earning starts in the team’s last two games.

Ioannis Papapetrou also had a solid night against the Horned Frogs, scoring 13 points in his 34 minutes on the court. More importantly, the Greek forward snagged nine boards on a night where the Longhorns performed terribly on the glass. The Longhorns grabbed just 30 rebounds as a team, posting an ugly 26.9% mark on the offensive glass.

For TCU, the bright spots were in the frontcourt, where Connell Crossland (No. 2) continued his surge in conference play. The senior had 12 rebounds, including four on the offensive end. Fellow big man Adrick McKinney (No. 24) led TCU in the scoring department with 13, while also logging eight boards.

The rematch

When the two teams squared off once again on February 19th, Myck Kabongo was back on the court for Texas, and he made an immediate impact. The sophomore point guard scored eight points in the first half and dished out five dimes, as the Longhorns took a 33-25 lead to the locker room.

Texas moved the ball extremely well in the first half, while Kabongo was aggressive with the bounce. The Longhorns could have been even more efficient on offense, if not for a series of poor passes into the paint that resulted in turnovers.

On the other end, the Longhorn defense had a tough time shutting down a TCU team that typically struggles to score. Even though Demarcus Holland did a solid job turning back the penetration of point guard Kyan Anderson (No. 5), the Horned Frog bigs repeatedly found great post position. Cameron Ridley especially struggled to force McKinney off the block, and he played only six minutes as a result. Even with that interior success, TCU did not limit its scoring to the paint, as Garlon Green repeatedly knocked down midrange jumpers.

In the second half, TCU coach Trent Johnson made adjustments to slow down the Horns, most notably tabbing Nate Butler Lind (No. 21) to guard Kabongo. While he is perhaps a step slower than Anderson, Butler Lind’s extra length made it tougher for Kabongo to score, even when the Texas point guard was able to drive the lane.

The Longhorns briefly experimented with a zone in the second half, but Anderson quickly took advantage without Holland in his shirt. Anderson penetrated the zone and hit his teammates in good position as the defense collapsed, logging six assists in the second half alone. He also chalked up some of those dimes by being alert after missed Texas shots, judiciously picking the spots where he could push the tempo for transition points. His leadership allowed the Horned Frogs to tie the game with just under nine minutes to go, and he kept them within a few buckets of Texas down the stretch.

In the end, it was clutch plays from Connor Lammert and Holland that iced the game, keeping Texas just ahead of a determined TCU squad. After a pass by Kabongo from the opposite three-point line, Lammert made an acrobatic, backwards layup in transition as he was fouled, and then he converted the free throw. A few possessions later, Holland drilled a three from the corner as the shot clock neared zero. Thanks to those timely buckets, the Longhorns escaped Daniel-Meyer Coliseum with a 68-59 win, their first true road win of the season.

Keys to the game

1) Clean up the glass – Although TCU is just an average rebounding team, the Longhorns had trouble keeping them away from the offensive boards in both games. Texas allowed the Horned Frogs to reclaim 37.8% of their misses in the first meeting between the two teams and 45.2% of their misses in the second game. The Horned Frogs do not shoot the basketball well and rely mostly on scoring from their bigs in the post. If the Horns wants to avoid the upset tonight, they have to take advantage of that offensive weakness by limiting second and third chances once they have forced missed shots.

2) Make the bigs uncomfortable – With TCU’s preference for dumping it into the post, Texas has to make it a point to put the Horned Frog bigs in uncomfortable positions. (No, not the back of a Volkswagen.) The Longhorns can force TCU to make entry passes further up the lane or perhaps choose to immediately double on the catch near the block. With TCU hitting less than 31% of their threes on the season, the risk of doubling down is diminished greatly.

No matter which approach is taken, the Horns have to focus on making things tough for McKinney and Devonta Abron (No. 23). The Longhorns also need to make sure that their interior fouls count, limiting the number of and-one opportunities they concede. At the line, TCU is the eighth-worst team out of 347 in the country, making less than 60% of their attempts. If the Horns are beat in the paint, they must make the Horned Frog bigs earn both of the points, not give up the two and still allow a chance for the bonus.

3) Aggression from the guards – TCU has a very stout defense that packs it in tight and forces opponents to beat them with outside and midrange shooting. In the last meeting, Kabongo showed how easily dribble penetration can make that TCU defense break down. The adjustment to put Butler Lind on Kabongo slowed down his attack, and it also slowed down the Horns as a result.

If the Texas point guard is unable to mix things up with the bounce, Holland, Sheldon McClellan, and Julien Lewis will need to pick up the slack and drive from the wings and along the baseline. Otherwise, the Longhorns will be forced to win this game with their jump shots, and those have been very inconsistent all season long.

The worst regular season for the Texas basketball program in nearly two decades comes to its quiet end on the South Plains this afternoon as the Longhorns take on Texas Tech. This year, Texas suffered its worst start in conference play since the 1970’s, posted its first losing record in conference since Tom Penders’ final season in 1997-98, and will need a miracle run at the Big 12 Championship in Kansas City to avoid missing out on the NCAA tournament for the first time in 15 years.

With no hopes for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, Texas is playing only for seeding in the Big 12 Championship. If West Virginia loses at home to Iowa State this afternoon, the Longhorns can lock up a No. 7 seed in the conference tournament with a win over Texas Tech. That would set up a game against TCU on Wednesday in Kansas City, with the winner advancing to face the No. 2 seed, which will be Kansas or Kansas State. If the Mountaineers defeat Iowa State this afternoon, the Longhorns will be playing for nothing but pride when they tip off in Lubbock.

Meet the Red Raiders

For an in-depth look at the Texas Tech roster and the team’s tendencies, check out LRT’s game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first match-up

The Longhorns entered their first game against Texas Tech with an 0-5 Big 12 record and in desperate need of a win. The opening minutes of the game did little to calm the fears of Longhorn fans, as the team scored just 10 points in the first eight minutes, while point guard Javan Felix picked up two fouls.

With Felix on the bench, Ioannis Papapetrou took over primary ballhandling duties and Demarcus Holland stepped up. Texas closed out the half with a 25-14 push, building a lead as large as 13 late in the first half. Holland played 17 of the first 20 minutes, scoring nine points with aggressive drives and a triple. His three steals also flustered Josh Gray (No. 5) and the Tech offense, which coughed it up nine other times in the first half.

In the second, Texas extended its lead to as many as 16 points in the first few minutes. Tech refused to fold, however, slicing the lead to only eight points with just under eight minutes to play. After wasting late leads against USC, UCLA, Kansas, and West Virginia, it looked like the Horns might once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Instead, Papapetrou fueled a late-game surge, hitting a trey before assisting on three straight buckets. The Longhorns outscored Tech 17-6 over the next five minutes and cruised to a 73-57 win, their first victory in Big 12 play.

Sophomore guard Julien Lewis led Texas with 18 points, despite having a rough 2-for-7 performance behind the arc. The Longhorns also received a strong effort from freshman Cameron Ridley, who chipped in six points and ripped down ten rebounds. Texas made it a point to get their big man the ball, and it led not only to points in the paint, but opportunities for other Horns.

Since then…

The loss to Texas was the first in a nine-game skid for the Red Raiders, who finally broke out of the funk last Saturday with a home victory over TCU. Porous defense was the culprit in all of the losses, with the Red Raiders allowing 1.18 points per possession during the losing streak. Their best defensive effort came in a narrow road loss to West Virginia, where they still allowed the anemic Mountaineer offense to put in 1.015 points per possession.

Big man Dejan Kravic (No. 11) has continued to be inconsistent for Coach Walker, performing admirably in early February losses to West Virginia and Kansas State before going into a terrible slump. In Monday’s loss at Kansas, Kravic hit his absolute low, posting an offensive rating of five.

To put that performance into perspective, we can compare it to the day that Northern Illinois tied an NCAA record with four points in one half and went on to score 25 total. The Huskies had only one player who posted a single-digit offensive rating, and that was bench man Akeem Springs, who somehow managed an ORtg of just one.

It’s clear that Texas Tech is much better when Kravic is able to use his throwback game to earn points in the paint. Unfortunately, he has had little success doing that in conference play. If he continues to struggle this afternoon, the Red Raiders will likely find it tough to close out their season on a positive note.

At the point, freshman Gray has put up some solid performances down the stretch, but he is still struggling with decision making. His speed is very tough to defend and he can get to the rim with ease, but his lack of a consistent outside shot allows opponents to sag off. When opponents hunker down and take away his driving ability, Gray will often make a questionable pass inside that results in a turnover.

Even with those weaknesses, Gray scored 46 total points in back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Iowa State. He also dished out six dimes against TCU, with many of those coming after he had sliced up the Horn Frogs off the bounce. The freshman clearly has a bright future in the Big 12, but needs to make better passing decisions from the perimeter and he will have to work on finishing at the rim and developing an outside shot over the summer.

Keys to the game

1) Come out with intensity – United Spirit Arena was once a dangerous road trip in the Big 12, as Kansas repeatedly found out in the late 2000’s. Unfortunately, numerous coaching changes and abysmal seasons have killed the crowd support and turned the arena into an empty cavern. That provides little energy for games, and it can make it difficult for visiting teams to show up to play. Kansas and Kansas State both struggled to put Tech away until late in their visits to Lubbock this season, while Iowa State actually fell victim to the Red Raiders in mid-January.

With the Longhorns having very little to play for, they will have to manufacture their own energy this afternoon. Although the team could be playing for a No. 7 seed in the Big 12 Championship, that doesn’t provide too much motivation. If they come out flat like they have on numerous occasions this season, the Horns will certainly let Tech hang around and be in a position to pull off an upset.

2) Force mistakes – In the first meeting, Texas forced Tech into 19 turnovers and converted that into 22 points. That was no anomaly, as the Red Raiders have struggled controlling the ball all year. Their turnover rate of 21.3% is one of the 100 worst marks in D-I hoops, and they actually have coughed it up slightly more against Big 12 opponents, with 21.5% of their possessions ending in a miscue.

With Holland now in the starting five, the Longhorns will get even more minutes out of a guy who gave the Red Raiders fits in the first game. If they can get a repeat performance from him and force Tech to waste their possessions, the Horns should be able to finish the regular season with a win.

3) Clean up defensive glass – Even though Texas won the first game comfortably, their effort on the defensive glass left a lot to be desired. The Horns allowed Tech to reclaim 48.6% of their missed shots, and the Red Raiders turned all of those second chances into 17 extra points. The Longhorns had particular trouble with Jordan Tolbert (No. 32), who grabbed 13 boards on the night, with eight of those coming on the offensive end. If the Longhorns allow that many offensive rebounds in this game, a Tech offense that typically struggles to score will suddenly become much more dangerous.

When the Big 12 released its conference schedule last summer, Texas’ home finale against Baylor looked like it would be a very important Big Monday showdown. Although the consensus was that Kansas was once again the prohibitive favorite, both the Bears and Longhorns would likely be battling for seeding in both the Big 12 and NCAA tournaments. Baylor would probably be playing for the right to play its NCAA opening weekend games in Austin, while the Horns would be working towards their fifteenth consecutive NCAA appearance, and perhaps a favorable draw that would feed into the Arlington regional.

Instead, tonight’s game is huge for very different reasons. The Bears have lost four out of their last five and currently sit in the “First Four Out” of Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracket Math ($), with Kansas coming to town on Saturday. While a win over Texas does nothing to improve Baylor’s lot, a defeat at the hands of a Longhorn squad holding an RPI of 122 would be crippling.

There’s also the distinct possibility that the Bears could finish the season below .500 in the Big 12, with only one of their league wins coming against a team projected to be in the NCAAs. Earlier this season, Lunardi also ran the numbers ($) on teams who made the NCAA field with a losing record in conference play. In the last 10 seasons, only nine squads earned at-large bids with losing records in their leagues. Six of those nine teams had non-conference strength of schedules that ranked in the top 50 nationally; Baylor’s is ranked 43rd.

The numbers would seem to give the Bears some hope that they could survive losses in their last two games, especially with all of the horrible losses suffered by other bubble teams this weekend. Still, antiperspirant sales would skyrocket in Waco ahead of Selection Sunday if the Bears were to lose to both Texas and Kansas this week. That would give Baylor a 1-6 record in its last seven games, and an 8-10 mark in the conference. It’s safe to say that tonight’s game is a must-win for the reeling Bears.

For Texas, the stakes are much lower. The Longhorns have no shot at an at-large bid to the NCAAs, and would need to win four games in four days at the Big 12 Championship in Kansas City to make the field. There are still post-season options in the form of the NIT and CBI, but as we explained in the TCU game preview two weeks ago, even the NIT looks like a long shot. Although the rule was removed that requires NIT teams to have a .500 record, no team with a losing mark has ever actually been invited to the tournament. Even with wins against Baylor and Texas Tech this week, the Horns would still have to win their opener in KC and then upset the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the quarterfinals just to reach that .500 mark.

The Longhorns could still be selected for the College Basketball Invitational with a losing record, but there’s no guarantee that Texas would even accept that bid. The CBI is a 16-team tournament that culminates with a best-of-three championship series, with all games at campus sites. In the five-year history of the event, six of the 80 participating teams played with a losing record, and all were from the Big East or Pac-12. As long as the Horns avoid losing their next three games, it’s hard to imagine the Gazelle Group not inviting Texas, which participates in many of its November tournaments. Still, it’s incredibly sobering to reflect upon how far expectations have fallen in just six short months.

Meet the Bears

For an in-depth look at the Baylor roster and the team’s tendencies, check out LRT’s game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first match-up

In the first Big 12 game of the year, it was overworked freshman point guard Javan Felix who shouldered the load for Texas. With the Longhorns down nine at the half, Felix came out of the locker room firing and poured in 15 second-half points to carry the Horns into overtime at Baylor.

In the extra period, Felix scored the first four points for Texas, which led by one with only 1:29 to go. The Bears responded with three free throws over the next half-minute, leaving the Horns with a two-point deficit, the ball, and 50 seconds to go. But, after leading the Texas upset bid all afternoon, it was Felix who missed an ugly turnaround jumper to tie the game with 30 seconds to go. After a few more Baylor free throws and some desperation attempts from Texas, the Bears escaped with a seven-point win in overtime.

The biggest difference in the game was Baylor’s composure at the free-throw line. The Bears were more aggressive all afternoon, hustling for rebounds and loose balls, while the big men repeatedly got to the rim against the Texas frontcourt. All told, Baylor shot 45 free throws in the game, knocking down 80% of their attempts. In a game that had to go an extra five minutes to decide the winner, missing just a free throw or two during regulation could have resulted in a loss for Baylor.

The Bears were led by a 25-point performance from Pierre Jackson (No. 55). He scored 11 of those points in overtime, including 9-of-11 shooting at the charity stripe in the extra period. Baylor’s twin towers, Cory Jefferson (No. 34) and Isaiah Austin (No. 21), combined for 33 points and 22 rebounds against the overmatched Texas forwards.

Since then…

Thanks to a quirk in the schedule, Baylor and Texas have gone more than eight weeks between their two meetings this season. The Bears are now sitting in sixth place in the Big 12, just one game behind Iowa State with two games to go. Unfortunately, seven of their eight wins have come against the four teams below them in the standings, with their home win against Oklahoma State providing the only victory against an upper-division Big 12 team.

The struggles have intensified in recent weeks. Baylor has lost four out of five, including a heartbreaking defeat against Kansas State on Saturday. The Bears never let the Wildcats get ahead by more than six in the second half, and ended up with the ball and a second left in a tie game. A full-court heave from rarely-used Jacob Neubert went out of bounds untouched, giving K-State the ball under its own basket. The Bears lost Rodney McGruder on staggered screens along the baseline, and he popped out to the wing for a game-winning three at the buzzer.

The difficulties of the long conference season have seemed to weigh the most on 7’1″ freshman Austin, who has been visibly frustrated during the team’s last few games. In the team’s last ten games, Austin’s offensive rating has dipped below 100 in six contests, reaching the low 70’s in games against Iowa State and West Virginia. His three-point percentage has also taken a slight dip in conference play, with just 24.2% of his attempts going down in the last ten games.

Although he’s still averaging more than 13 points per game in Big 12 play, Austin’s inconsistencies have been frustrating. The freshman seems to be lacking a soft touch on the hook and turnaround in his post-up opportunities, and he now appears to be a bit timid in face-up situations, lacking the fluidity that allowed him to stretch the floor and made him such a difficult match-up.

With Austin regressing slightly on the offensive end, Jefferson has quietly become one of the most underrated players in the Big 12. Much of that is due to the fact that the Bears are mired in the middle of the league standings, giving his solid performances less attention from the media. Jefferson is averaging 11 points and nearly eight boards in conference games, while also providing an intimidating interior presence on the defensive end. His excellent timing makes him a formidable shot blocker, which repeatedly caused issues for Kansas State in Saturday’s close-fought game.

As always, the straw that stirs Scott Drew’s drink — a Dr. Pepper, of course — is the point guard, Jackson. The senior leads the Big 12 in both points and assists, scoring 18.6 points against league opponents while dishing out 6.5 dimes per game. Even though turnovers continue to be a problem for Jackson, all of the other fantastic things he does on the court far outweigh those issues.

When Jackson is on his game and dissecting opponents on the bounce, the Baylor offense can be a thing of beauty. It’s not unsurprising, then, that in most of Baylor’s conference losses, the point guard can be found chucking up an inordinate amount of threes. In Baylor’s eight Big 12 defeats, Jackson averaged more than eight three-point attempts, and made only 31.3% of them. In the team’s eight league wins, Pierre averaged just over six attempts and made 38% of those looks.

Keys to the game

1) Play tougher inside – Baylor abused the Longhorns in the paint during their first meeting. Jefferson and Austin both posted double-doubles, with Jefferson also earning 14 trips to the line. The Texas big men played terrible interior defense, and they repeatedly found themselves out of position on the glass. The Longhorns allowed Baylor to reclaim 39.1% of its missed shots, including three offensive boards that all came in one 93-second possession late in regulation.

Tonight, the Texas frontcourt must do a better job limiting those second-chance points and must also play much better defense against Jefferson and Austin. With the troubles that the Longhorn bigs have had defending their counterparts all season long, that could be a very tough task.

2) Limit Jackson’s penetration – It was outlined above just how much of a difference Jackson makes when he is aggressive with the bounce. Although the Bears have a capable frontcourt that can get points in the traditional manner, Baylor’s offense is at its best when Jackson is utilizing ball screens to penetrate and start the help-defense domino effect. His driving ability frees up Austin and Jefferson inside, and it sets up sharpshooter Brady Heslip (No. 5) for numerous wide-open threes.

In the first game preview, it was mentioned that Jackson and the Bears struggled against non-conference opponents who blitzed Baylor’s ball screens. With Austin currently struggling to knock down his threes, that becomes an even more important strategy. His usefulness as a pick-and-pop guy decreases, and the pick-and-roll is much easier to defend with help. If the Longhorns can limit the number of drives by Jackson — hopefully by doubling hard on those ball screens — it will force Baylor to create shots in other ways, something that the team has had a hard time doing.

3) Be alert in transition defense – One of the other ways that Baylor often scores is by beating opponents in transition. The Bears do a fantastic job of running the floor and excel at getting open looks from the perimeter and easy finishes at the rim when opponents are still trying to set up defensively. Texas has especially struggled at giving up transition points in recent games, so this is a major cause for concern in tonight’s match-up. The Longhorns have to force Baylor score from half-court sets, or else they will have a tough time keeping up on the scoreboard.

Although it has been more than 10 weeks since the Texas Longhorns have put together a winning streak, the team still enters this afternoon’s showdown with Oklahoma State riding some momentum. Thanks to a furious 22-point comeback in the final eight minutes, Texas stormed back against rival Oklahoma on Wednesday night, eventually earning a 92-86 victory in overtime.

The emotional comeback rejuvenated a team that looked to be sleepwalking on defense for the first 30 minutes, and it energized the bench in a way seen only a few times in this disastrous season. The victory also gave the team some confidence as it heads down the home stretch of the season, although it’s possible Coach Rick Barnes may have been a bit too caught up in the moment. “I don’t think there’s a team in the country that wants to play Texas,” he told reporters after the game.

While the proud coach may have overstated things, it’s undeniable that the Longhorns have looked like a different team since the return of Myck Kabongo. The team has slashed its turnover rate since his return, and the Horns’ two best offensive efficiency marks of the season have come in the last three games. Although Texas still doesn’t knock down its shots with consistency, there is more fluidity to the offense on most possessions.

Even with the improvements on offense, it’s hard to believe that Texas is somehow still in a position to avoid the first round of the Big 12 tournament and a potential quarterfinal matchup with the league’s first or second-place team. Although the odds are slim, the Longhorns could still grab the 6-seed in the Big 12 tourney by winning out, if Baylor loses to Kansas State and Kansas on the final two Saturdays of the season. To summarize and thus avoid getting into the minutiae of tiebreaking principles, the Longhorns would be slotted ahead of the Bears thanks to wins over Iowa State and Oklahoma.

Of course, the biggest hurdle in that scenario is Texas earning a very tough road win today. Oklahoma State is in the midst of its best season in nearly a decade, and historic Gallagher-Iba Arena is once again filling up and providing an intimidating home-court advantage. The Cowboys have lost just twice at home this year — by a combined two points — and the second of those losses took two overtimes to sort out. It’s safe to say that it will be a stiff challenge for the young Horns this afternoon, but at least there’s actually still something besides pride that this team can play for.

Meet the Cowboys

For an in-depth look at the Oklahoma State roster, check out LRT’s game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first match-up

In the final game without point guard Myck Kabongo, the Longhorns struggled to put the ball in the basket and never really challenged Oklahoma State in a 72-59 loss, the first OSU victory at the Erwin Center since 2004. Texas made only one of its 18 three-point attempts, the worst percentage ever by a Longhorn team, with the minimum qualification of at least 10 tries. Coming into the game, Oklahoma State opponents had made 34% of their shots from behind the arc.

Although the Longhorns actually bested their season average in the turnover department, the team still struggled to get any offensive flow thanks to numerous miscues by point guard Javan Felix. The freshman coughed it up eight times on the afternoon, while only logging one assist.

It was fellow freshmen Demarcus Holland and Ioannis Papapetrou who kept Texas in the game, combining for 28 points on 41.6% shooting. Unfortunately, the pair was also responsible for eight of the 17 three-point misses for Texas on the afternoon. Holland’s performance against Oklahoma State elevated him into the starting lineup days later against Iowa State, a role he has held for the last five games.

All-everything guard Marcus Smart (No. 33) led the way for Oklahoma State, pouring in 23 points to make up for seven turnovers. He was a strong 3-for-6 from long range, despite hitting just 27.7% of his three-point attempts prior to that game. OSU also enjoyed a solid performance from Le’Bryan Nash (No. 2), who had been consistently inconsistent all season. The 6’7″ sophomore snagged nine rebounds, a marked improvement in an area where he had been repeatedly under-performing.

It wasn’t only Nash who hit the glass hard, as Oklahoma State dominated the rebounding battle. The Cowboys reclaimed more than 41% of their missed shots, and they turned those extended possessions into an extra 14 points. On the other end of the floor, the Longhorns could only corral 25.6% of their misses against the long, athletic Cowboy roster. With struggles on the glass and struggles from the field, Texas was fortunate to limit the final margin to only 13 points.

Since then…

The victory over Texas was the fifth consecutive win for Oklahoma State, and it kept them just a game out of first place. The Pokes would then reel off two more, including a thrilling overtime win against in-state rival Oklahoma, which set up a monumental showdown with Kansas for first place.

Earlier in the year, Oklahoma State had ended the Jayhawks’ 33-game home winning streak, becoming just the second visiting team in 104 games to leave Phog Allen Fieldhouse with a win. When Smart punctuated the upset by doing a flashy backflip across the court, KU fans and players circled February 20th on the calendar, looking forward to the chance for revenge. The stage was only made bigger by the fact that both teams entered the game at 9-3 in Big 12 play and were squaring off for first place.

It would take two overtimes to decide the game, and a slew of whistles in the extra periods sucked much of the excitement out of an otherwise epic battle. Kansas made only one field goal in the two overtimes, but that one hoop would prove to be the difference. A jumper from Naadir Tharpe just inside the free throw line put Kansas ahead with 16.5 seconds left, and Markel Brown’s turnaround attempt from the perimeter drew iron in the final seconds.

The loss put the Cowboys just a game back of Kansas and Kansas State, but they have kept pace with the league leaders over the last week. Oklahoma State gets one more crack at the Wildcats when they host KSU in the season finale, but the team will still need outside help to catch up with Kansas. The Jayhawks have home games remaining against West Virginia and Texas Tech, but close out the year at Baylor. Although anything can happen, the schedule certainly seems to favor KU.

If Oklahoma State is going to run the table and finish 14-4 in league play, a big reason could be the emergence of Nash. The sophomore was a McDonald’s All-American, but never lived up to the hype in his freshman campaign. This year, he ceded the leadership role to Smart, but still was struggling to produce consistently. Nash often failed to play good defense, took poor position on rebounds, and liked to hang out on the perimeter, despite a three-point percentage hovering around the Mendoza line.

There is hope that the light has finally clicked on for Nash, however. In Wednesday night’s game against TCU, the sophomore was aggressive from the opening tip. He posted up and exploited his size advantage when mismatches arose. When facing bigger players who lacked foot speed, he would face up and drive to the rim. It all added up to a career high for Nash, who scored 28 and ripped down six boards in front of his family and friends who made the trip to Fort Worth from Dallas.

If Nash continues to give that kind of effort, the Cowboys will be very difficult to slow down the rest of the year. Of course, Nash’s sudden surge is not the only new wrinkle that opponents will now have to worry about. Guard Brian Williams (No. 4) is seeing even more minutes as he works his way back from a broken wrist, giving Oklahoma State additional length on the perimeter and another lockdown defender.

That defensive presence isn’t all that Williams brings to the table. Although his perimeter D is what he’s best known for, Williams averaged more than 16 points in the last six games of 2011-12. After missing the first 18 games of this season due to that broken wrist, it will likely take the sophomore a little while to build back up to that dominant level. When he does, an already-talented Oklahoma State team is going to be even scarier.

Keys to the game

1) Knock down the threes – The perimeter is one area where Oklahoma State opponents actually find success, but Texas was completely useless behind the arc in the first game between these two teams. The Longhorns should easily be able to improve upon the 5.6% mark they posted in that game, but they will need to do much better this afternoon to keep themselves competitive in the rematch.

In the last three games, Texas has connected on 35.2% of its three-point attempts. While the season average for the Horns is still an ugly 28.8%, the numbers are at least trending in the right direction. Thanks to OSU’s great shot blocking skills and ability to turn back most dribble penetration, the Longhorns are going to have to knock down threes to win this game. If they can continue with their recent trend, the Horns will have a shot, but a repeat of their performance in the first game could make things ugly in a hurry.

2) Battle on the boards – Texas was dominated on the glass when the teams first played in Austin, but the Horns were without sophomore forward Jonathan Holmes. If the Horns hope to stay in the game this afternoon, they will have to drastically improve upon their 58.5% mark on the defensive glass, and will have to win more second chances on the other end of the court.

The Cowboys tend to go with a four-out look, and their forwards are incredibly springy and athletic. If Texas elects to play both Holmes and Connor Lammert at the same time, the pair will have to get a body on the very slippery OSU forwards when shots go up. The Longhorn guards will also have to be alert, as Smart rebounds incredibly well from the perimeter. The Longhorns cannot afford to get into a shootout with the Pokes, so they will have to close out their defensive possessions with strong boards and eliminate second chances for OSU.

3) Avoid perimeter turnovers – Smart has some of the quickest hands in the nation, posting the country’s ninth-best steal rate. The rest of OSU’s perimeter D has length that makes it very difficult to penetrate or even pass it around the arc. As Texas learned in the first game, controlling the ball can be very tough against the Cowboys. Having Kabongo available this time around will certainly make a difference, but Texas still has to be careful.

While it’s obvious that turnovers hurt the offense by wasting possessions, miscues on the perimeter are even more deadly when playing on the road. Guard-to-guard passes that are swiped are almost always turned into a fast-break bucket, while balls stripped from the hands of a guard usually produce the same result.

In front of a pumped-up crowd at one of the toughest road venues around, live-ball turnovers that lead to fast-break points will only whip the crowd into more of a frenzy and build momentum for the home team. Texas not only needs to limit its turnovers this afternoon, but also has to hope that any miscues are mostly of the dead-ball variety.