The Texas Longhorns wrap up 2012 with one last non-conference game, hosting in-state rival Rice this afternoon at the Erwin Center. While the Owls have been on an upward trajectory the last few seasons, this year’s squad is the definition of a rebuilding project, making this game more of a tune-up for the Longhorns. The timing is great, as Texas is coming off a pair of tough match-ups against North Carolina and Michigan State, with a road trip to Baylor looming next weekend.

By the numbers

No matter how you slice it, the numbers aren’t pretty for Coach Ben Braun and the Owls. Their adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency numbers rank in the bottom 100 nationally, with their offensive rebounding mark dead last out of 347 Division I teams. The Owls are still trying to put the pieces together after a tumultuous offseason, and it shows on the court.

As a result, Coach Braun has turned his team from one of last year’s quickest (68.6 possessions per game) to one of the slowest (64.3). They play patient basketball on the offensive end, spreading the court and waiting for the best possible shot. That patience does result in the one statistical bright spot for Rice, as their turnover rate of 17% is 22nd-best in the country. The Owls might not be able to score or rebound, but they certainly will not waste possessions with careless mistakes.

Meet the Owls

After the program’s most successful season in years, Coach Braun and the Rice faithful were ready for an experienced bunch to take the team to new heights this season. Instead, the decision not to renew the contract of assistant coach Marco Morcos unleashed a deluge of transfers and departures, gutting the once-promising roster.

Five Rice players transferred during the offseason, while a sixth returned home to Lebanon to play professionally. Of the six players, five were recruited by Morcos. Big man Arsalan Kazemi was a double-double machine at Rice and is now averaging 9.2 points and 10.4 boards for Oregon. Egyptian center Omar Oraby took his 7’4″ frame to USC, while German forward Jarelle Reischel went to Rhode Island. Point guard Dylan Ennis also transferred east, heading to Villanova, while forward Ahmad Ibrahim elected to go the professional route.

That leaves the Owls with three returning rotation guys, a host of newcomers, and a decided lack of size. The tallest players in the rotation are 6’7″ Seth Gearhart (No. 41) and British freshman Ross Wilson (No. 11). Gearhart is more of a stretch forward, however, while Wilson is struggling through the beginning of his first collegiate year. With no true big men, Rice often spreads all five players on the perimeter and constantly runs cuts through the lane, hoping for a quick-hitter that leads to a layup.

The star of the team is senior Tamir Jackson (No. 3), a 6’3″ guard who plays stifling perimeter defense and rebounds extremely well for a guy his size. On the offensive end, he’s the team’s best option to create a look, as he can put the ball on the floor and get to the rim when defenders play him a little too close. He’s also got the ability to hit a pull-up jumper at a moment’s notice, and is accurate enough from long range to be a consistent threat.

The other returning scorer is 6’4″ sophomore Julian DeBose (No. 15), who is also an excellent rebounder from the perimeter. He’s struggling with his midrange game this season, but has still managed to average 9.9 points per game by driving to the rack for layups and by converting his rare offensive boards into second-chance points.

With Ennis now on the Main Line, diminutive freshman Max Guercy (No. 1) is running the point. Listed at a generous 5’9″, Guercy is often able to get to the rim, but has had difficulties finishing in traffic. He’s good at using the hesitation dribble and varying his speeds to fool the defense, but Guercy’s inability to convert the easy looks is a huge blow for a team that is so inept on the offensive end.

Off the bench, junior forward Austin Ramljak (No. 42) has proven to be a big-time three-point threat. Although he’s been streaky from behind the arc, when the California juco product gets hot, he can light it up in a hurry. At the DirecTV Classic in Anaheim, Ramljak knocked down 9-of-18 from behind the arc in back-to-back games against Georgia Tech and Drake. On the season, he’s made a more reasonable 35% of his long-range looks, but Texas certainly can’t let him get comfortable this afternoon.

Freshman Keith Washington (No. 5) rounds out the core rotation, hailing from Philadelphia. He has an aggressive streak with good driving ability, and he has the strength to absorb contact and still get his shot up. Washington has shown some flashes this season that give fans hope that he can be a star, but for now he’s still a role player who is averaging 5.5 points in his 20 minutes per game.

Keys to the game

1) Take care of the ball – It looked like the Longhorns were heading the right direction in the turnover department, coughing it up on less than 17.5% of their possessions against UCLA, Texas State, and North Carolina. Saturday’s loss to a feisty Michigan State team exposed those weaknesses again, however, as the Longhorns ended more than 26% of their possessions with a turnover. While the Owls aren’t a team that forces many miscues, this is a major issue that the Longhorns need to get under control before tackling their Big 12 slate.

2) Deny Jackson’s driving lanes – Tamir Jackson is the only player on the Rice roster who can consistently create his own shot, and their offense can go cold for extended periods of time when he’s not scoring. If Julien Lewis and the Longhorns can turn away his drives and force him to beat them with long jump shots, Rice will have a hard time putting up enough points to hang with Texas.

3) Shadow Ramljak on the perimeter – Austin Ramljak has proven he can put up a bunch of points from outside, and he doesn’t need a ton of space to get off his shot. The Texas defenders need to stay in his shirt when he’s floating around the arc, and they have to contest his long-range attempts. The three-pointer is the great equalizer for less talented teams, so if Texas can limit the damage from behind the arc, Rice will have little hope for an incredible upset.

The Texas Longhorns square off with Michigan State this afternoon in East Lansing, wrapping up one of the toughest weeks of the season, both on and off the court. On Wednesday night, Texas pulled off its biggest win of the season, knocking off a ranked North Carolina squad. As the final minutes of the victory ticked away, a Yahoo! report quickly spread through the sports world, breaking the news of a season-long suspension for sophomore point guard Myck Kabongo.

As it turns out, the suspension had been handed down five days prior, on December 14th, and the Texas program was already in the process of appealing the decision. Last night, after the team had already landed in Michigan without their point guard, that suspension was reduced to 23 games. With 11 games having already been served, Kabongo will be available for the final eight regular season games and post-season play.

With all of the off-court distractions, the Longhorns still had to prepare for a very tough test in the form of another talented Spartan team. Tom Izzo’s bunch has not lost to a non-conference opponent at home since Texas stormed out of the Breslin Center with a win in December of 2010. The upperclassmen on the Michigan State roster certainly remember that game, and will be looking for some revenge this afternoon.

By the numbers

As always, Izzo’s team plays nasty defense and is a handful on the glass. Michigan State’s adjusted defensive efficiency is tenth-best in the country according to Ken Pomeroy, allowing opponents just 0.863 points per possession. With the Texas defense ranked fifth in the same metric, fans should be treated to a scrappy battle with a lot of missed shots.

On the glass, the Spartans are in the upper echelon on both ends of the court. They reclaim 37.9% of their own missed shots, ranking them 41st in the country. On defense, they limit opponents to just 27.5% of their offensive rebounding opportunities, a mark that is ranked 36th nationally.

With that prowess on the offensive glass and a pair of imposing players scoring in the paint, the Spartans have a pretty efficient offense this season. Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive efficiency numbers give the Spartans 1.077 points per possession, which ranks them in the Top 50. Michigan State does it nearly all from inside, with only 20.5% of their scoring coming from behind the arc.

Like Texas, the biggest weakness for Michigan State is turnovers. The Spartans end 23% of their possessions with miscues, while the Horns cough it up on 24.4% of their own. If the tough defenses weren’t already going to make it hard to score today, the offenses would still do their part with unforced errors.

Meet the Spartans

The man at the point is junior Keith Appling (No. 11), who is a converted shooting guard. He’s tops on the team with 15 points a game, and his 11.1% defensive rebounding rate is outstanding for a guard.

The Spartans run a ton of ball screens for their point guard, and he takes full advantage. Even though he doesn’t take a ton of threes, Appling can knock it down when opponents go under the screen. When he gets his man on his hip, Appling immediately drives it to the rack and can creatively finish through contact. At times, he’s too aggressive, as he’s picked up quite a few charging fouls while driving the lane.

With Appling at the point, freshman Gary Harris (No. 14) is at his natural position of shooting guard, and it’s allowed him to play major minutes and make a big impact in his short collegiate career. Harris is second on the team with 12.7 points per game and is winning the coach’s favor with good perimeter defense.

Like Appling, Harris is a constant recipient of perimeter ballscreens, but his repertoire is even more robust than Appling’s. He was a running back in high school, so he doesn’t shy away from contact, and loves to score through fouls at the rim. When the defense steps in to draw charges, Harris has a nice floater and a good midrange jumper that he can pull up to drain. He’s also knocking down just over 34% of his three-point looks, hitting about one per game.

Tom Izzo has lamented the lack of a shooter on his interior-oriented team, and it’s clear that Harris is one of the best options to step into that role. He has a good shot and can get hot in a hurry, but has yet to consistently put it together. He knocked down 5-of-10 in his last game against Bowling Green, but was just 1-for-7 against Tuskegee three days prior. If he can build on his latest performance with another good game against Texas, Harris could be hitting his stride just in time for Big 10 play on December 31st.

Sophomore wing Branden Dawson (No. 22) is one of the team’s most exciting players, but an ACL tear in March has slowed down his development a little bit. Dawson was starting to break out as an offensive threat at the end of his freshman year, but suffered that devastating injury in the final regular season game. He went through an incredibly rapid rehab, returning to action in just seven months. Although Dawson is missing a little bit of his explosiveness and some of the lateral quickness that made him a tough defender, he’s still been impressive this season.

Dawson is built like a tank, and when he slashes to the rim he is very tough to stop. He has good body control and knows how to protect the ball so that he can use his strength to finish through contact. He’s also a good post-up option, especially when matched up against other wing players of similar size. Dawson rebounds extremely well from the wings and is ranked in the Top 250 for offensive rebounding percentage. If he can start to consistently knock down the jumper, the sophomore will be an all-around stud.

Coach Izzo has recently favored a smaller, four-guard look with freshman Denzel Valentine (No. 45) joining the starting lineup. At 6’5″, he brings some length to the perimeter and has the handles to slash from the wings. Valentine also has excellent court vision and makes great passes once he gets the defense reacting. Unfortunately, he’s also had a terrible time with turnovers this season, so he’s not getting the opportunity to really show off those other skills. Valentine has coughed it up 27 times against just 32 assists, giving him an ugly 30.9% individual turnover rate.

The man in the middle of the new lineup is 6’9″ senior Derrick Nix (No. 25). The big man has shed a lot of weight throughout his collegiate career, but in years past has been known to put it back on during the summer. This year, he showed up in the best shape yet, and his post game looks so much smoother as a result.

Unfortunately, that lack of a shooter on the Michigan State roster has allowed opponents to sag into the lane and constantly double the big man. At times, the Spartans have been lax in hurrying to his aid, abandoning him against the pressure. When he has teammates available for the kickout, Nix does a great job of tossing it out and immediately reposting. The rest of the Spartans just need to be more alert so they can help out the big man instead of stranding him in the post.

Nix is also dominant on the glass, grabbing more than 10% of his offensive rebounding opportunities and more than 22% of his chances on the defensive end. His 7.5 boards per game are tied for tops on the team.

Adreian Payne (No. 5) is the man tied with Nix atop the team rebounding rankings, despite volunteering to take on a sixth-man role early in the year. Payne was struggling with foul trouble during the first few weeks of the season, limiting his minutes and effectiveness. Since coming off the bench, he has avoided the quick fouls and increased his playing time.

Payne is a great defensive presence in the lane, with quick hops to block shots. At 6’10”, he can clean up shots from the help side and closes out numerous possessions with authoritative defensive boards. Payne is also a very good passer, a trait that makes the Spartans very tough to stop when he and Nix share the floor at the same time. He also can knock down shots out to about 17 feet, allowing him to pull opposing bigs out of the lane to clear space. It also makes him a consistent threat to pick and pop on the numerous ball screens that Michigan State sets.

The Spartans don’t have much depth in the post, with Alex Gauna (No. 2) providing the only other option. He’s averaging just 7.2 minutes per game, but he brings the same floor-stretching abilities to the court as Payne. Gauna is not nearly the rebounder that Nix and Payne are, but he’s still able to post up and is rather slippery for a guy his size.

Coach Izzo thinks he’s going to trim his rotation to nine guys at some point this season, meaning one of his three guard reserves will likely be the odd man out. Travis Trice (No. 20) is the backup point guard, but he’s missed some time this year due to concussion-symptoms suffered after taking a shot to the nose in the season opener against Connecticut. Sophomore Brendan Kearney (No. 3) is averaging nearly 18 minutes a game and brings good length and perimeter defense with his 6’5″ frame. Fellow sophomore Russell Byrd (No. 0) is struggling with his shot as he comes back from foot injuries, sinking just 19.4% of his 31 three-point attempts.

Keys to the game

1) Avoid settling for bad shots – Michigan State’s defense can be suffocating at times, and their presence on the defensive glass is downright dominant. The Spartans have allowed opponents to post effective field goal percentages greater than 47% in only four games — losses to UConn and Miami, and three-point victories over Kansas and Louisiana-Lafayette. In each of those games, the Spartans still held their opponents to offensive rebounding marks below 25%.

Even though Texas did a great job reclaiming missed shots against North Carolina on Wednesday, it’s doubtful they can consistently find much success today against the Spartans. That makes every shot more important, and Michigan State is great at forcing their opponents to take bad ones. The Longhorns have struggled this season to shoot the basketball, even when they work to get great looks. They will have to be patient today and actually capitalize when they are able to get good opportunities.

2) Capitalize on Spartan mistakes – The Spartans have had trouble hanging on to the basketball all season long, posting turnover marks north of 25% on five different occasions. With Michigan State’s defense being so difficult to crack, Texas needs to take advantage of these miscues and score some points before the Spartans can get entrenched in their half-court D.

It’s also important to note that many of Michigan State’s turnovers are live-ball ones, meaning that the Longhorns should have ample opportunity for runouts and fast break buckets. If Texas misses out on these opportunities, like they did in a crushing loss to UCLA, there will be no chance of an upset this afternoon.

3) Limit turnovers – This has been a staple in the Keys to the Game, and despite recent improvements by the Horns, it remains in today’s preview. Points will be very hard to come by this afternoon, and turnovers will only serve as a mistake that hurts on both ends of the court. Texas cannot afford to give up easy points to Michigan State, and the Horns cannot waste their own offensive possessions.

The Longhorns have posted turnover percentages of 15.5%, 17.4%, and 16.1% in their last three games. A performance similar to that will keep them in position to challenge for an upset today. Conversely, careless mistakes like those seen in the Maui Invitational and against Georgetown will quickly squash any hopes Texas has of pulling off a shocking road win.

Last year, the one consistent storyline throughout the season was a lack of quality wins. The Longhorns spent the entire season on the bubble, with every win crucial to what would eventually become the program’s 14th-consecutive NCAA bid. Thanks to an inability to win close games, Texas finished the season with just three victories against the RPI Top 100, while its fans sweated the bubble until a Big 12 tournament win over Iowa State.

Although most fans have already written this season off as an abject failure, the truth is that we’re only about a third of the way through it. The absence of both Jaylen Bond and Myck Kabongo has been crippling, as evidenced in low offensive rebounding numbers and a sky-high turnover rate. The return of one or both of those players can only make the Longhorns better and increase the odds that they pull off some quality wins in league play.

Unfortunately, the Big 12 is under-performing to an alarming degree this season. Predicted to be a deep, difficult conference in 2012-13, the Big 12 now looks like Kansas, a couple of challengers, and a whole lot of muck. That gives the Longhorns six conference games against current RPI Top 50 teams and another six games against teams ranked between 51 and 100, with West Virginia just a few losses away from falling below that critical threshold.

Texas could certainly build a résumé on wins against OU, Baylor, and Iowa State, but it wouldn’t hold much weight when considered alongside a loss to D-II Chaminade. So, while no one would consider a mid-December game a “must win,” the importance of tonight’s game against UNC cannot be understated. The Tar Heels are young and inconsistent, and this match-up provides the opportunity for a quality win that can add some meat to the tournament résumé.

To pull off the upset without those two key Longhorns would not only impress the critics, but it would also give this inexperienced team some confidence heading into conference play. On the other hand, a loss does little to harm reputation. Many observers have already written the obituary on the 2012-13 Texas season, and another loss would likely go unnoticed. Tonight is a low-risk, high-reward situation for these young Longhorns, who have made some key improvements in the last two weeks. Now, fans will get to see what direction the team will be headed in for the next three months.

By the numbers

As usual, the Tar Heels love to get out and push the tempo, with their 75.4 possessions per game the third-fastest adjusted pace in Division I. While no one would confuse North Carolina with the pressure-loving teams of Mike Anderson, the Tar Heels can and do force mistakes, and they are always looking up court after rebounds and made buckets.

With John Henson and Tyler Zeller gone to the NBA, North Carolina is no longer an inside-out team that looks for paint touches every possession. Instead, this year’s Tar Heel squad loves to shoot it from outside. The team takes 28.7% of its shots from behind the arc, up from 23.5% a season ago. While North Carolina is not going to indiscriminately fire up three-pointers, this season definitely features a different approach to the half-court game.

As a result of the new look, North Carolina hardly ever gets to the free throw line. The Heels have a free-throw rate of just 22.6%, meaning they earn about one free throw for every five field goal attempts. That is the fifth-worst mark in all of D-I hoops, but it might actually be good for the sanity of North Carolina’s fans. The Heels have made less than 65% of their shots at the charity stripe, putting them in the bottom third nationally.

When looking at the big picture, the Heels are an imposing bunch on both ends of the court. North Carolina has an adjusted offensive efficiency of 1.08 points per possession, while allowing opponents an adjusted mark of just 0.891 points each time down the floor. Good interior defense and a solid job on the glass are both big components of that defensive dominance.

Meet the Tar Heels

With Kendall Marshall joining Henson and Zeller in this summer’s NBA Draft, the Heels have to rely on freshman Marcus Paige (No. 5) to run the show. The Iowa product is more of a scoring point, which is a marked difference from the pass-first approach that Marshall brought to the table. Paige is still adjusting to the college game, as evidenced by his early problems with turnovers. But after coughing it up four times in his collegiate debut and not logging a single assist, he’s steadily improved that ratio to a 1.36 assist-to-TO mark on the season.

Senior Dexter Strickland (No. 1) has spent much of his collegiate career as the backup point guard in Chapel Hill, and the arrival of Paige allowed him to move off the ball to the shooting guard spot. Still, he can’t completely leave that old role behind. With Paige more of a scoring guard, Strickland has actually taken over the team lead in assists. He’s averaging five per game, and that resurgence as a floor general gives Coach Roy Williams incredible flexibility in the backcourt with a pair of guards that can both run the point and also score in bunches.

Strickland is much better as a slashing, driving guard, but he’s clearly been working on the jump shot. Although he’s only made 26.7% from behind the arc this season, Dexter is still taking the triples and long-range twos a few times each game. That persistence seems to finally be paying off, as his accuracy on mid and long-range jumpers has improved over the last few games.

The third guard for the Tar Heels is 6’7″ sharpshooter Reggie Bullock (No. 35). That height makes it tough for opposing guards and wings to prevent him from launching three-pointers, and he’s more than happy to take advantage. More than 55% of his shots have come from behind the arc this season, and Bullock has knocked down 46.9% of those attempts. He’s not a guy who is going to put the ball on the floor and get to the rack, so opponents have to stay in his shirt and communicate when he’s run off of screens.

Although Bullock is an incredibly dangerous offensive weapon, the team’s new star is sophomore James Michael McAdoo (No. 43). A relative of the great Bob McAdoo, this soft-spoken big man is a handful for opposing defenses. McAdoo has a good post repertoire, a great midrange game, and is a confident, aggressive driver. He also has a quick release and makes swift post moves, so defenses are often caught off-guard when he suddenly pops an uncontested look. McAdoo is tops on the team with 15.4 points per game and 8.3 boards.

The fifth starting spot has belonged to a rotating cast of characters, but it was most occupied by freshman Brice Johnson (No. 11). At 6’9″, the freshman from South Carolina is still very thin and wiry compared to most opposing post players. Still, he has a knack for finding the ball near the rim, and he makes great cuts without the ball to get himself in scoring position. His great hops and athleticism also make him tough on the boards, and he’s already provided some rim-rattling dunks this season. With some more experience and a few more pounds of muscle, Johnson is going to be a very exciting player for the Heels.

The other post option is fellow freshman Joel James (No. 0), a 6’10” big man with a soft touch and a lot of raw talent. He didn’t begin playing organized basketball until his sophomore year of high school, so there’s still a lot of learning on the fly for James. He lets himself get pushed out of position on the blocks and on the boards, so he will have to improve his court awareness and his assertiveness to make a bigger impact for UNC. Self-improvement has been no problem for James, however, a fact he proved by losing more than 50 pounds in one summer. If he applies that mental focus to improving his post game, this skilled big is going to be a beast in the ACC.

Off the bench, P.J. Hairston (No. 15) is a strong, aggressive guard who can put the ball on the floor and get to the rim. At 6’5″ and 220 pounds, he’s a handful for most defenders, and he has the strength to fight through contact. When he’s being confident and decisive, Hairston can take over a game. When he’s not providing that spark for the offense, it clearly shows for North Carolina. He did not make the trip to Indiana after spraining his knee in practice, and the offense sorely missed his ability to create as they were blown out by the Hoosiers.

Leslie McDonald (No. 2) is a junior who also brings a scoring punch off the bench. His 10 points per game is fourth on the team, despite the fact he’s started only one game. McDonald shoots threes even more often than Bullock, having taken nearly 57% of his shots from long range this year. Bullock does top him in one category, though, as McDonald’s 46.7% accuracy is just a bit shy of the team lead.

The final member of the core rotation is freshman J.P. Tokoto (No. 25), a solid defender with a lot of length. Tokoto has an impressive wingspan that he uses to disrupt passing lanes and challenge shots, and his lateral quickness on the perimeter makes it tough to beat him. Like fellow freshman Johnson, Tokoto has athleticism in spades and possesses the ability to jump right out of the gym.

Desmond Hubert (No. 14) and Luke Davis (No. 4) will also likely see limited action in this one. Hubert was the fifth starter for many of the early-season games, but his ineffectiveness in the post has limited him to a reserve role. Davis provides a few minutes per game at the point, and is playing as a walk-on after transferring following his freshman season at Gardner-Webb.

Keys to the game

1) Stop the ball in transition – North Carolina is practically unstoppable when they are piling up the points in transition, as the sophomore class of Longhorns can remember well from their visit to Chapel Hill last season. The Tar Heels are still inconsistent in the half-court set, a fact made glaringly clear in their losses to Butler and Indiana. If Texas can prevent the Tar Heels from getting easy buckets in transition and force them to work for their points in the half court, that already-tough Longhorn D can really stifle the UNC attack.

2) Push McAdoo out of his comfort zone – One player who is especially dangerous even in those half-court sets is the future NBA star McAdoo. If he gets the ball in a post-up situation, he doesn’t even need time to feel up the defender and then make a move. He can quickly spin and pop a jumper, or go right to the effective baby hook. Where he’s most deadly, though, is catching the ball as he’s already moving towards the hoop. With his long legs and one power dribble, he can get to the rim in an instant and finish for two.

For Texas, this means that McAdoo has to be forced off of the blocks and has to receive passes with his back to the hoop or his momentum moving away from the rim. There’s no way Texas can do this on every possession, but if they can force McAdoo into the spots they want him for much of the game, it will certainly limit his effectiveness.

3) Silence the three-point shooters – Shutting down McAdoo won’t make much of a difference if Bullock or McDonald get hot from long range. Both players have proven they can score in a hurry, as McDonald dropped six triples on Mississippi State and another five on UAB, while Bullock has made at least three of them in five different games. Although it can be very hard to prevent the lanky Bullock from getting his shot off, the Longhorns need to chase him off the perimeter and they need to challenge McDonald’s looks.

4) Clean up the defensive glass – Even if Texas can do all of these things on defense, it still will be a futile effort if they don’t close out possessions with defensive rebounds. Fortunately, the Heels have had some major struggles on the offensive glass against quality competition, so the chances are good for the Longhorns.

In UNC’s win over East Carolina on Saturday, not a single Tar Heel post player reclaimed one of his team’s missed shots. It was the third time Carolina was held to an offensive rebounding mark of less than 30%, with the other two coming in losses to Butler and Indiana.

Texas has done an average job so far this season on the defensive glass, but the team is coming off two strong rebounding performances against UCLA and Texas State. The Longhorns held both teams to offensive rebounding marks under 27%, which is impressive when you consider the length on that Bruin squad with the likes of Kyle Anderson and the Wear twins. If the Horns can continue that recent trend tonight, they can keep themselves in this ballgame until the end.

5) Hang on to the ball – As promised, the perennial Key to the Game returns for the North Carolina match-up. While the Heels aren’t a team that is pressuring 100% of the time, they do key in on weaknesses that present opportunities to trap and press. Against a Longhorn team that has frequently turned it over, you can be sure that Coach Williams will throw in a few extra pressure situations to force mistakes and fuel that transition game.

The Longhorns have done a much better job at controlling the basketball in their last two games against UCLA and Texas State, but it will be challenging to do the same against North Carolina tonight. The last time they faced a team with this much length and athleticism, the Longhorns turned it over on 32% of their possessions against Georgetown. If they can avoid that kind of meltdown tonight, the Horns will at least have a chance to pull off an impressive upset.

The Texas Longhorns take a brief reprieve from their brutal December schedule, retuning home this evening to host Texas State. The Horns are in desperate need of a win, coming off of a demoralizing loss to Georgetown in New York and a late-game meltdown against UCLA in Houston. Fortunately, the Bobcats have historically been an agreeable non-con visitor, losing the last 23 times in their series with Texas.

The Longhorns were headed in the right direction last Saturday, although the final four minutes of their loss to UCLA might have erased those memories from the minds of most Texas fans. Ball movement was crisp on the offensive end, players were moving consistently off the ball, and Cameron Ridley put in his a solid performance for the second consecutive game. Most importantly, the Longhorns did a fantastic job controlling the basketball for a majority of the game, although the turnover bug caught up with them in crunch time.

Tonight, it’s imperative that Texas continue to build on the things that were done correctly against UCLA. If the Longhorns can once again control the basketball against a Texas State team that pushes the tempo and forces mistakes, they will perhaps start to believe that they can overcome those issues. If Ridley and Javan Felix can follow up their strong performances with another good outing tonight, their confidence will be higher heading into two very tough games against North Carolina and Michigan State. Conference play is just three weeks away, so Texas has very few opportunities left to reinforce good habits and change the psychology of a team that Sheldon McClellan said is made up of “guys [who] don’t believe we can win.”

By the numbers

As has been the case since Coach Doug Davalos arrived on campus in 2006, the Bobcats love to get out and run. In each of Davalos’ first five seasons, Texas State was one of the five fastest teams in D-I hoops. Even last year, the Bobcats still were the seventh-fastest team in the nation, squeezing more than 72 possessions out of every game. This year, they are averaging more than 75 possessions per game, the third-quickest tempo in the country.

Historically, the Longhorns have had very little problem with the up-tempo approach of the Bobcats. In their six meetings with a Davalos-led Texas State squad, the Horns have averaged 79.5 possessions and have scored 1.153 points each time down the floor.

As it has been all season, the primary area for concern for the Longhorns is in controlling the basketball. Even after posting a turnover mark of just 15.5% against UCLA last Saturday, Texas still has a 26.6% turnover percentage for the year, one of the 20 worst marks in D-I hoops. The Bobcats, meanwhile, force mistakes on more than 24% of their opponents’ possessions. This evening’s game will provide a very good test for the Texas ballhandlers, one which should show whether or not the team’s improvement in ball control was the start of a trend or just a statistical blip.

On the other end of the court, Texas State has struggled to score consistently this season. According to Ken Pomeroy, their adjusted offensive efficiency is 0.955 points per possession, thanks in large part to an inability to reclaim missed shots. The Bobcats have grabbed just 28.9% of their offensive rebounding opportunities, one of the 100 worst marks in Division I.

The Longhorns were killed on the defensive glass in those painful final minutes against UCLA, so this offers a good chance for Texas to improve in that department. With only one member of the core Bobcat rotation checking in over 6’7″, there’s no reason why the Horns shouldn’t dominate on the glass tonight.

Meet the Bobcats

Texas State brings back quite a bit of experience this year, as three of the Bobcat starters faced off against Texas at the Erwin Center last season. The team has six upperclassmen, including a pair of JUCO transfers that have cracked the starting rotation.

Point guard Vonn Jones (No. 1) had a rough year shooting the ball as a junior, but has made good strides so far in his senior campaign. Jones is the team’s best three-point threat, leading the team in both attempts (33) and accuracy (45.5%). Coach Davalos also believes that Jones has improved his defense in the offseason, something that has helped him keep the starting job and average 24 minutes per game.

Wesley Davis (No. 10) joins Jones in the backcourt, where he’s started every game as a sophomore. Davis was recruited to be a shooter for the Bobcats, but has taken only about 17% of the team’s looks when he’s been on the floor. Perhaps the most confounding thing about Davis is his career mark of 64.5% from the line. For someone who is supposed to be launching it regularly, that level of accuracy on the easiest of shots is incredibly troubling.

JUCO transfers Joel Wright (No. 25) and Corey Stern (No. 5) have combined for 11 starts and more than 24 points per game. The addition of this pair of 6’7″ guys was supposed to be the solution to poor rebounding numbers from a year before, but results have been mixed so far. Wright has certainly done his part, posting an offensive rebounding percentage that ranks him as one of the Top 100 players nationally. Per game, his 6.2 rebounds are tops on the team, while Stern has managed just 4.4 per game.

In the middle, senior Matt Staff (No. 21) is still the team’s only true big man, checking in at 6’10”. He leads the team in both minutes and points, scoring more than 16 in just over 27 minutes per game. If the Longhorns can get him in foul trouble, as they did to UCLA’s Travis Wear last Saturday, they will suddenly have quite the size advantage over the Bobcats.

With Wright and Stern working their way into the starting five, junior Reid Koenen (No. 3) has shifted to a sixth-man role. The 6’7″ Wisconsin native is now back in his comfortable role of small forward, where he can match up better with quick opponents on the wings.

Also coming off the bench is freshman Phil Hawkins (No. 0), who was expected to challenge Jones for the starting point guard spot this year. While Hawkins hasn’t made any starts yet, he’s still averaging nearly 18 minutes per game. Turnovers have been holding back his progress this year, as he’s coughed it up 17 times against just eight assists.

Guards Darius Richardson (No. 13) and Ray Dorsey (No. 4) round out the core rotation for Texas State. Richardson is a strong 6’4″ guard who can play the two or the three and has seen the court for about 12 minutes per game. He was a regular starter at UT-Arlington before transferring to Texas State, but will have to wait another year before earning that honor for the Bobcats. Dorsey is a 6’3″ freshman who is playing around 10 minutes per game and has as many assists — seven — as buckets this year.

Keys to the game

1) Control the basketball – As promised, this key to the game is keeping its standard spot in the game preview. The Longhorns did a much better job controlling the basketball for a majority of the game against UCLA, but coughed it up when it mattered most. While Texas State hasn’t been a particularly good team this season, they can force mistakes with their up-tempo approach. If Texas wants to avoid the unthinkable upset, they cannot waste possessions with turnovers.

2) Take advantage inside – The Bobcats are undersized and have not done a good job on the glass this season. The Longhorns, meanwhile, have provided some excellent post defense and did a great job scoring in the paint against UCLA. Texas needs to establish a post presence early in this one and work to control the glass, something that has often been a challenge this season.

3) Get Sheldon McClellan going early – Against UCLA, McClellan once again had a rough first half, not even cracking the scoring column for the first 17-plus minutes of the game. He played much more aggressively in the second half, putting the ball on the floor to create better looks rather than relying exclusively on jump shots. While the Horns need to get Ridley the ball early in this game, Sheldon also must be aggressive with the ball to avoid yet another slow start.

Three months ago, the match-up between Texas and UCLA appeared to be one of those early-season non-conference battles that give fans an early taste of March Madness. The Bruins boasted the nation’s top recruiting class and were ranked 13th in both the Associated Press and USA Today Coaches Poll. The Longhorns were a fringe Top 25 team hoping to succeed with a well-seasoned sophomore core.

Since then, Myck Kabongo has been the subject of an interminable NCAA investigation into his eligibility and hasn’t played in a single game. Jaylen Bond suffered separate injuries to both feet, and saw just a few minutes of action in a loss to Division II Chaminade. At UCLA, another NCAA investigation delayed the start of Shabazz Muhammad‘s season by three games, while troubled big man Josh Smith and guard Tyler Lamb have both left the program.

The two teams have identical 5-3 records heading into this afternoon’s contest, taking all of the luster off of what was once an exciting non-conference game. Although the Bruin losses to Georgetown and San Diego State are certainly understandable, going to overtime against UC-Irvine is worthy of some head-scratching. Even worse, UCLA dropped a home game to Cal Poly when Norman Powell lost track of the score and intentionally fouled in a tie game with 14 seconds left.

The Longhorns, meanwhile, suffered the most embarrassing defeat of the young season when they lost to Chaminade in the Maui Invitational. A day later, they fell victim to their own late-game miscues in an overtime loss to USC. Things seemed to be clicking along rather nicely after that, as the Longhorns rebounded to put together a nice three-game win streak with dominating defense. The wheels came off in New York on Tuesday night, however, as Texas turned the ball over on 32% of its possessions in a 23-point loss to Georgetown.

So while today’s game might not be as appealing on paper, it’s now become even more important. For two teams who had high pre-season expectations, their NCAA tournament résumés are now alarmingly empty. Neither team is going to attract national attention by winning this afternoon’s game, but the victors could be earning a Top 100 win that will be beneficial at season’s end. Even more importantly, the loser will fall to just a game above .500, with conference play looming just weeks away.

By the numbers

Long known as a defensive coach who slows down the game, Ben Howland has adjusted to his young, talented roster by opening things up a bit this season. The Bruins are free to push the tempo in transition, and their offense looks much better as a result. UCLA’s tempo is up to 69 possessions per game, a far cry from the sub-65 possessions that the 2006 and 2007 Final Four squads averaged. Although they aren’t racking up fast break points, the secondary break is giving the Bruins lots of good looks for their strong shooters.

Defensively, UCLA isn’t as dominant as they were during the late 2000’s, but they are still very strong on that end of the court. The Bruins are allowing only 0.928 points per possession, thanks to their strong presence on the defensive glass and their ability to play defense without fouling. With a very tall backcourt, UCLA is limiting opponents to a 28.6% success rate on their offensive rebounding opportunities. The Bruins also have a defensive free-throw rate of 25.7%, the 26th-best mark in the country. In simpler terms, that means that UCLA only gives opponents roughly one free throw for every four field goal attempts.

Fortunately for Texas, the Bruins don’t rely on forcing turnovers to shut down their opponents. Of course, that hasn’t meant much for a Longhorn team that is sixth-worst in all of DI hoops when it comes to losing the basketball. The Bruins have a lot of size and their perimeter defense has the luxury of length, so they could rack up the turnovers without really even trying.

Meet the Bruins

The man that runs the offense is point guard Larry Drew II (No. 10), a former UNC Tar Heel who seems to have turned things around in Westwood. In Chapel Hill, Drew was often criticized for under-performing, and he announced his intent to transfer shortly after losing his starting job. Although that looked like the move of a man unwilling to work hard and improve, it’s clear he’s made some major strides since heading west.

Drew has cut way down on his turnovers, posting a nice 6.2 assist-to-turnover ratio so far this season. He’s also improved his midrange shot, although he still much prefers to facilitate. Most importantly, Drew has provided leadership to a team full of young stars.

Although Drew has played nearly 35 minutes per game, the Bruins have some flexibility at the point thanks to freshman phenom Kyle Anderson (No. 5). At 6’9″, he is truly a point-forward who looks completely comfortable handling the ball and running the offense. It looks so effortless when Anderson handles the basketball that it’s very easy to forget that he has six inches over most of his defenders.

Anderson isn’t much of a jump shooter and is averaging only 6.6 points per game, but the matchup problems he creates and the rebounding he brings from the wing are huge contributions. His 8.1 boards are tops on the team, and he’s ranked in the top 300 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates.

The other big name in the freshman class is Shabazz Muhammad (No. 15). Like Anderson, he was a consensus Top 5 recruit in the 2012 class and brings an explosive scoring threat to the Pac-12. He’s a left-handed slasher with a good mid-range game and accuracy that goes beyond the arc. At 6’6″, Muhammad is also a good rebounder from the wings, and he’s second on the team with 5.6 rebounds per game.

The team’s top scorer is Jordan Adams (No. 3), who was the least-heralded member of the top-ranked freshman class. Adams actually started the season on the bench, but played so well that Coach Howland had no choice but to move him into the starting role. The freshman has great body control, so he’s able to work through traffic and get off shots that sometimes seem to defy explanation. Adams is also very strong for his size, so he can muscle up near the paint to finish through contact. He’s also the team’s most consistent outside threat, hitting 37% as he chucks up nearly six three-point attempts per game.

The final piece of the starting rotation is 6’10” junior Travis Wear (No. 24), who also came to UCLA after transferring from North Carolina. Like his twin brother, David, Travis is a great stretch forward who is often used for perimeter screens and is deadly on the pick and pop. Coach Howland has said that both twins bulked up a bit in the offseason and should be better suited to bang down low on offense.

With the freshmen immediately earning playing time, David Wear (No. 12) shifted to a sixth-man role, where he’s earning about 22 minutes per game. The Wear twins both provide a good defensive presence in the lane, although David is not nearly the shot blocker that Travis is. Where David bests his brother, however, is on the offensive glass. So far this season, David has an offensive rebounding rate of 10%, while Travis has grabbed just under 6% of his opportunities.

The other former starter who has been squeezed into a reserve role is guard Norman Powell (No. 4). The sophomore is an excellent perimeter defender and dangerous three-point shooter who still averages nearly 28 minutes per game despite the demotion. Powell also has great closeout speed and seems to come out of nowhere to deflect shots when he’s providing help defense or recovering from behind the play.

The final member of the rotation is also the final member of the highly-touted recruiting class, freshman Tony Parker (No. 23). Although Parker only averages about seven minutes per game, there’s hope that he can fill the role that Josh Smith never quite could. At 6’9″ and 275 pounds, Parker provides a lot of heft in the paint and uses his soft hands to get off a jump hook that earned praise in high school.

Keys to the game

1) Limit the turnovers – Unless things dramatically improve, this key will likely be a mainstay in this portion of the game previews for the rest of the season. Texas is posting turnover numbers that are unheard of in the Rick Barnes era, and the inability to hang on to the ball is rendering the offense completely ineffective.

When the Horns are posting defensive numbers that should keep them in just about every game, it takes a special kind of ugly on the offensive end to still get blown out. The Longhorns managed to find a way to to do that on Tuesday night, and if they can’t eliminate those kinds of mistakes this afternoon, the Horns could be in for another embarrassing performance.

2) Battle on the glass – The Bruins have great rebounders on the wings in Anderson and Muhammad, while the 6’10” Wear twins provide the size inside. That kind of length has propelled the Bruins to a defensive rebounding rate that’s just outside the Top 70 and an offensive rebounding rate that is 102nd in the nation.

Texas has struggled to get rebounds in all three of their losses, and even had trouble getting boards in victories over the smaller Sam Houston State and UT-Arlington squads. Facing a UCLA team that has height advantages all over the court will certainly provide a big challenge for these young Longhorns. Some of the team’s turnover problems can be mitigated by earning second chances, but turning the ball over and failing to get offensive rebounds would be a recipe for the kind of offensive futility Texas fans saw on Tuesday night.

3) Get back on defense – Much of UCLA’s offensive success this season has come on the secondary break, as the Bruins look to push the tempo and attack a disorganized defense. They have been great at finding the open man as the D tries to get set, moving the ball crisply to keep opponents scrambling.

To slow down the UCLA attack, the Longhorns must get back down the floor and force the Bruins to work their halfcourt sets. UCLA has looked weakest against zone defenses, while Texas actually has a pretty solid 2-3 this season. Stopping transition and getting set in that zone will certainly make things tougher on the Bruins.