With just 34 days to Selection Sunday, the margin for error is razor thin for the Texas Longhorns. Five of the team’s remaining eight games come against squads that are even with or below them in the standings, although four of those come on the road. Had Texas actually come up with a victory in one of the many close contests they had with the league’s top teams, it could afford a stumble down the stretch. Instead, the Longhorns will have to turn into road warriors over these last four weeks of the regular season.

The first of those road tests comes tonight, in the form of the Texas A&M Aggies. Reed Arena has been a tough place for the Longhorns to win, with last year’s victory being the first in College Station in the team’s last seven trips. While Texas A&M has struggled with injuries and transfers this season, the Aggies have been a resilient bunch, and you can be sure that the fans will be loud for what will be the last regular-season meeting between these two rivals for quite some time.

Meet the Aggies
For an in-depth look at Texas A&M’s players, stats, and styles, check out the LRT game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first game

Foul trouble for Myck Kabongo and a gimpy ankle for J’Covan Brown only made the stifling A&M defense even tougher when these teams met at the Erwin Center on January 11th. The Longhorns managed just two field goals in the first ten minutes of the game, yet still held a lead for much of the first half. Julien Lewis ended up leading Texas in scoring, having his best game of the season with 16 points on a 6-of-10 line, including a perfect 3-for-3 mark behind the arc.

A&M’s Ray Turner battled foul trouble for much of the game, earning the DQ in only 10 minutes on the floor. That left David Loubeau and Keith Davis as the only frontcourt threats for the Aggies, and Texas took advantage. Loubeau was held to just 10 points, while Davis was skunked, and Texas’ pairing of Clint Chapman and Alexis Wangmene combined for 16 points, nine rebounds, and two blocks.

The first meeting between these two teams was painfully slow. With just 61 possessions, it was the second-slowest contest for Texas all season, with only the UCLA game having a more lethargic tempo. The Aggies average just 63.4 possessions per game, one of the 50 slowest rates in the nation. The Longhorns aren’t much quicker, checking in at 65.7 per game. Big 10 fans will be thrilled with tonight’s contest, which will likely be another brutal, slow-down affair.

Since then…

If Texas A&M’s season weren’t already rough enough, the Aggies have had to deal with even more injuries in Big 12 play. Khris Middleton has missed the last four games as his knee injury has flared up, and he will be inactive again tonight. Senior point guard Dash Harris hurt his ankle just before half of the game against Kansas, and has missed the three games since then. He will also miss tonight’s game, according to coach Billy Kennedy.

Despite the injuries, the Aggies have been very competitive over the last two weeks. Without Middleton and with Harris hobbled for half the game, A&M fought the Jayhawks at Allen Fieldhouse until the final minutes. The Aggies also had a home win over Baylor within their grasp last Wednesday, but lost the lead and the game in the final seconds.

Although Texas A&M has posted a 3-4 record since playing Texas in Austin, the Aggies have actually looked better over the last two weeks. With just seven players left in the core rotation, it seems like this bunch has rallied together to play its best basketball with its back against the wall.

A big part of the team’s ability to compete without its two leaders is the emergence of freshman Daniel Alexander (No. 20), who has stepped up over the last two weeks. After averaging just 5.4 minutes in the team’s first 18 games, the freshman has seen his average increase to 26 minutes in the last four contests. At 6’9″, Alexander boasts a three-point threat that helps to spread the floor for Texas A&M. In the team’s two impressive performances against Kansas and Baylor, Alexander made a big impact with 6-of-9 shooting from beyond the arc.

Keys to the game

1) Attack the paint – The Longhorns won the battle for points in the paint the first time these teams met, outscoring the Aggies 20-12 in the lane. Although the Aggie defense did a good job pressuring beyond the perimeter, the Longhorns were still able to get a piece of the paint on the bounce and find teammates down low for good looks. With the Aggie roster even more thin this time around, that aggressiveness is not only important to earn easy points, but also to put the small A&M rotation in foul trouble.

With Brown back to full health, we’ll likely see much more dribble penetration this time around. If Kabongo can also avoid the frustration fouls that put him on the bench in the first game, the Texas guards could be the key to earning a road win tonight.

2) Crash the glass – Texas A&M did an excellent job on the boards in the first game, limiting a Texas team that has been quite good at reclaiming its missed shots. The Longhorns typically grab 39.7% of their missed shots, but were able to get to just 23.1% of their offensive board opportunities against the Aggies. In a game that will likely have very few possessions, Texas has to maximize the value of every single one. Extending possessions with offensive boards and earning easy points on putbacks will be key to grinding out a victory over A&M.

3) Own the perimeter – While rebounds will be incredibly important in a low-possession game, three-pointers will also be huge. It’s likely that this game finishes in the 50’s or low 60’s, so the boost of a three-point bucket in this game will be even more valuable. Alexander adds an extra three-point threat that the Aggies didn’t have when the teams met in Austin, while Elston Turner is always dangerous from long range. He went just 2-for-7 in the first meeting, which would be an acceptable line for the Longhorns to allow tonight. If he, Alexander, or Naji Hibbert suddenly get the hot hand, Texas could be in serious trouble. The Longhorns don’t necessarily need to chase shooters off the perimeter, but they do need to be in position to at least challenge all of those outside looks.

The Longhorns return to action tonight at the Erwin Center, having finally completed a brutal six-game stretch that was among the toughest in the country. Unfortunately, Texas had ample opportunity to steal a win or two against top-tier competition, but came up short almost every time. Only a home victory over Iowa State kept the Longhorns from an ugly six-game losing streak, and provided them with one more W against the RPI Top 50.

Now, the schedule get easier for Texas. The team’s nine remaining games come against squads with a combined record of 32-49 in Big 12 play. While the Longhorns won’t be able to just walk into Lloyd Noble Center, Reed Arena, or Gallagher-Iba Arena and expect to be handed wins, they are certainly capable of logging those road victories. Add in a pair of chances for revenge at home against Kansas State and Baylor — two teams who beat the Horns by just nine combined points — and it’s easy to see that all is not lost quite yet for Texas.

If you think of these final nine games as a new season for the Horns, Texas Tech provides the perfect opening opponent. The Red Raiders are winless in league play, and have a 45.4% chance to finish the year with an 0-18 mark, according to Ken Pomeroy. For a Texas team that may have had its confidence shaken by a handful of last-second losses over the last three weeks, Texas Tech provides an excellent chance to get their mojo back.

By the numbers

The Red Raiders are the league’s most inexperienced team, with eight freshmen and three sophomores on the roster. Just three players return from last year’s team, which finished 5-11 in Big 12 play and lost in the first round of the league’s tournament.

The Red Raiders aren’t a terrible shooting team, but they are incredibly inconsistent. The only thing they have been able to do consistently this season is turn it over, something they do on almost 26% of their possessions. Of the 345 teams in Division I, there are only five that waste possessions more frequently than Texas Tech.

When the Red Raiders do hang on to the basketball, they oftentimes have only one opportunity to score. Texas Tech reclaims just 26.8% of its missed shots, a mark that ranks the team 314th in D-I hoops. Unless the Red Raiders come out on absolute fire from the field, the stats don’t give them much of a chance for an upset this evening.

Another statistic that could make the upset difficult for the Red Raiders is their tendency to shoot from inside the arc. Although they make a respectable 36.6% of their three-point attempts, they take only 26.6% of their shots from long range. For a Texas team that has been torched by the threes of Iowa State and Mizzou, that is a great sign.

The Longhorns will also benefit from Tech’s bad habit of sending opponents to the line. Although Texas has left some valuable points at the charity stripe over its last three games, the team still has a success rate of nearly 72% from the line. Combine that with the fact that the Red Raiders give opponents one free throw for every two shots, and you have a recipe for tons of easy Longhorn points this evening.

Meet the Red Raiders

With a young, inexperienced team and a first-year coach in Billy Gillispie, minutes are up for grabs on the High Plains. Coach Gillispie has used 12 different starting lineups this season, and 10 Red Raiders average at least 11 minutes per game in conference play. He is still searching for a winning formula, and it’s clear that no player is above spending some time on the bench in order to learn a valuable message.

The team’s lone senior is big man Robert Lewandowski (No. 15), whose own inconsistent play mirrors the team as a whole. The 6’10” Kansas native has a good stable of post moves and can easily knock down mid-range jumpers. Unfortunately, he rarely puts it together for more than a game at a time, and often takes himself out of games with early foul trouble. The big man has also had some issues making quality entry passes when he’s in the high post, which is problematic on a team that loves to run the high-low game like Tech does.

With Lewandowski oftentimes ineffective, sophomore forward Jaye Crockett (No. 30) is having to pick up the slack. He loves to use the spin move for turnaround jumpers against bigger defenders, but also knows when to isolate on the block against smaller opponents. Crockett also can knock down the long baseline shot or elbow J, which some teams have dared him to take. In conference play, he’s leading the team with seven boards and more than 11 points per game.

The only other player consistently getting rebounds for the Red Raiders is freshman Jordan Tolbert (No. 32). Although he’s only 19 years old, Tolbert already has the chiseled body of a senior forward, and he’s used it to make an immediate impact at the college level. Tolbert is strong enough to score and rebound against the big men in a tough Big 12, and as a result he’s snagging almost six boards per game against league opponents.

Beyond those three, the Red Raiders have no real depth in the frontcourt. Freshman Terran Petteway (No. 2) fits best as a small forward, and although he’s strong enough to bang inside, he’s struggled against Big 12 frontcourts. He let his frustrations get out of hand in a blowout loss to Kansas, when he punched Connor Teahan in the head to earn an ejection and one-game suspension. Petteway has a pretty good jump shot and adequate handles, so when he puts it all together he should be a reliable slashing threat who can finish through contact.

Jaron Nash (No. 44) is another option at small forward, but he sees very little playing time. A transfer from Tyler Junior College, he’s long and athletic, but has yet to find his niche with this squad.

In the backcourt, Canadian product and Midland College transfer Ty Nurse (No. 4) is the team’s most dangerous long-range threat. He’s knocked down more than 38% of his three-point attempts, including an impressive 6-of-9 performance in the season opener against Troy. Nurse is also practically automatic at the line, having made 92.5% of his freebies this year.

Guard Javarez “Bean” Willis (No. 5) is quick and shifty with the ball, and is one of the team’s only quality penetrating threats. When Willis is aggressive with the ball, he’s able to find good looks for himself and his teammates, but it seems like he fails to flip that switch most of the time.

Freshman Kevin Wagner (No. 10) is another quick, talented guard who has worked his way into the starting lineup for the last three games. A hometown kid, the former Lubbock Estacado star is generously listed at 5’8″, and would likely lead the team in assists if he were playing more. His assist rate of 21.9% is best on the team, so despite averaging just about 15 minutes per game, he’s still near the top of the team leaderboard in that category.

Another freshman making an impact is DeShon “Biggie” Minnis (No. 3), who is one of the best rebounders in the backcourt for Tech. At 6’3″, the Philadelphia native is snagging nearly three boards in each Big 12 game and has parlayed that tenacity into four starts against conference opponents.

The Red Raiders are also getting about 11 minutes each from freshmen Luke Adams (No. 13) and Clark Lammert (No. 35). Adams is one of only two deaf players at the Division I level, and he wears cochlear implants along with a headband to help hold them steady. Although he’s listed at just 5’9″, Adams is a solid back-up at the point and has a quality jumper, even if he sometimes is a bit too eager to take the shot. Lammert is the older brother of future Longhorn Connor Lammert, and his height combined with a good long-range shot helps stretch the defense.

Keys to the game

1) Neutralize Lewandowski – There are a multitude of ways that the Longhorns can take the Tech big man out of the game, but the key is to get him uncomfortable early. Whether they achieve that by attacking him and drawing fouls or by forcing him off the block on offense, it doesn’t really matter. Texas just needs to make sure that Big Lew doesn’t get clicking early, because without him, the Red Raider offense usually grinds to a halt.

2) Keep Nurse off the perimeter – One of the easiest ways to get knocked off by an inferior opponent is to give up a ton of three-point shots. Ty Nurse is Tech’s best option from long range, and he’s coming in with the hot hand. In the team’s last two games, Nurse was 5-of-11 from beyond the arc, so the Longhorns have to make sure he doesn’t continue his success tonight.

3) Be aggressive – Tech’s defense constantly rewards opponents with trips to the charity stripe, so the Longhorns need to take full advantage by getting a piece of the paint. J’Covan Brown, Myck Kabongo, Julien Lewis, and Sheldon McClellan need to put the ball on the floor and drive to the bucket consistently. Not only will it lead to a ton of free points, but it can put the thin and already-undersized Tech frontcourt in foul trouble.

In a season where the Texas Longhorns are at risk of losing their 13-year streak of NCAA tournament appearances, the young team has had more than its fair share of chances to notch marquee wins. On the road against Kansas State and Baylor, the Horns had the ball on the final possession with a chance to tie the game. Both times, Texas failed to come up with the clutch basket. At home against Kansas, the Longhorns led by four with 3:24 to play, but didn’t score another field goal en route to a crushing loss.

All of this late-game futility adds up to an 0-6 record in games decided by two possessions or less, a stat that will haunt Longhorn fans if their team ends up on the wrong side of the bubble. Texas is now just 1-5 in games against the RPI Top 50, an important metric used by the NCAA Selection Committee. Thanks to Iowa State’s upset win over Kansas, the Longhorns can add one more Top 50 win if the Cyclones can climb at least two spots in today’s RPI update.

Without knowing who Texas will face in the Big 12 Tournament, it appears that the Horns have four more opportunities against RPI Top 50 squads, with three of them coming at home. The next chance for a résumé-building win comes tonight, in the form of the Missouri Tigers. It may seem early to start calling games “must-wins,” but the Longhorns are quickly running out of time to make their case. Texas needs to get over the hump and start turning these close losses into big-time wins.

Meet the Tigers

For an in-depth look at the Missouri players, stats, and tendencies, check out the preview from the first game between these two teams.

The first meeting

Texas opened in a zone defense against the Tigers, and Missouri quickly made the Horns pay with an incredible 73% mark from behind the arc in the first 20 minutes. Texas fell behind by as much as 16 points in the first half, compounding the poor perimeter defense with a string of miscues on offense. The Longhorns ended 22% of their possessions with a turnover, including back-to-back first-half possessions that ended on a shot clock violation and a five-count.

Even with the turnovers, Texas posted one of its most efficient offensive performances in conference play. The Longhorns scored 1.135 points per possession, the second-best mark achieved against the Tigers all year. J’Covan Brown was a huge part of the success, scoring 34 points on 62.5% shooting from the field, including an 85.7% mark from long range. Myck Kabongo also came up big for the Horns, aggressively attacking the lane as he logged his first collegiate double-double.

For the Tigers, Flip Pressey was the catalyst. He scored seven points in a 50-second stretch just after the Longhorns had cut the lead to five in the second half, effectively icing the win for his team. Just a 26% three-point shooter on the season, he drilled 3-of-7 against the Horns and consistently sliced up the Longhorn defense, scoring 18 to go with 10 assists. Ricardo Ratliffe was the main benefactor of the great Missouri guard penetration, scoring 21 points on a 10-of-12 shooting day.

Since then…

Ratliffe hasn’t slowed down since the win over Texas, earning Big 12 Conference Player of the Week honors for dominating performances against Texas A&M and Baylor. The big man scored 17 points and grabbed boards against the Aggies, then followed it up with a career-high 27 points in the road win over the Bears.

On Wednesday night, the Tigers suffered their second conference loss in a game where the importance of Ratliffe’s efficiency in the paint was underscored. Although he scored 25 points in the loss, his string of superhuman shooting percentages came to an end with a 10-of-17 line against Oklahoma State. It was the first time since the season opener that Ratliffe had missed more than three shots in a game.

The Tigers followed up the loss with a surprisingly close game against Texas Tech at home. The Red Raiders actually held the Tigers to just 1.03 points per possession, the team’s worst offensive efficiency number in their 19 wins. Tech limited Ratliffe to an eight-point, four-rebound afternoon, forcing the Missouri guards to carry the team. Kim English responded and knocked down 4-of-6 from behind the arc, but the rest of the Tigers were just 2-for-15 from long range. Missouri still held on for a 13-point win over the Red Raiders, but looked rather vulnerable heading into an important week where they travel to Texas and host Kansas.

Keys to the game

1) Stop dribble penetration – The four-guard look from Missouri was practically impossible for the Longhorns to stop when the teams met in Columbia earlier this month. As a result, the scrambling Texas defense was consistently out of position in the paint, leading to easy hoops for the guards and tons of points for Ratliffe. The Longhorns must stop the ball tonight and force the Tigers to beat them with contested jumpers, or else they will find themselves in another shootout with the nation’s second-most efficient offense.

2) Keep the backcourt humming – Both Brown and Kabongo had solid outings against Missouri the first time around, and both performed very well at Baylor on Saturday afternoon. If the pair of Longhorn guards can continue that high level of play against the Tigers tonight, the team should be able to find the same kind of offensive success that they did at Mizzou Arena. Throw in a little bit of defense, and that couldbe enough for a win this time around.

3) Chapman must avoid the whistles – In addition to the dribble penetration, the foul trouble that kept Clint Chapman on the bench gave Ratliffe and Steve Moore a hall pass in the lane. Chapman was again hounded by personals in the loss to Baylor on Saturday, and you can be sure that the Tigers will attack him tonight. The big man will have to be smart with his fouls and maximize his minutes if the Longhorns want to earn the upset.

4) Win the battle on the glass – Texas actually did a good job keeping Missouri off of the offensive glass during the first meeting, holding the Tigers to an offensive rebounding mark below 29%. Unfortunately, there weren’t many missed shots from Mizzou, so that strong performance on the boards didn’t amount to much. If the Longhorns can actually force some misses in this one, another solid night on the glass will make things much tougher for the Tigers this time around. The Horns should also be able to capitalize on the offensive end, as they reclaimed 47.1% of their misses in the first game and turned those extra chances into 17 points.

The Texas Longhorns took care of business on Tuesday night, earning a win they had to have over Iowa State. The Horns have spent most of the season positioned squarely on the proverbial NCAA tournament bubble, but another loss against a marginal RPI Top 50 team like the Cyclones would surely have darkened the postseason outlook for the Horns.

Today’s game against a deep, athletic Baylor team ranked in the Top 10 is certainly not a must-win. Even the most optimistic of Longhorn fans likely realizes just how difficult it will be for Texas to pull off a monumental road upset in Waco this afternoon. But while no one is expecting the Horns to march into the Ferrell Center and shock the nation, an improbable victory would provide a massive boost to Texas’ NCAA tournament chances.

By the numbers

The Bears roared out to a 17-0 record this season, the best start in school history. Baylor had close calls during that historic stretch, needing a clutch three and overtime to beat West Virginia in Las Vegas, while winning by just a bucket at Kansas State and against Mississippi State in Dallas. The Bears also won by three against BYU at the Marriott Center, one of the toughest venues in all of college basketball. With 11 games left until the conference tournament even begins, this Baylor team is already well-prepared for high-pressure situations.

Baylor has one of the ten most efficient offenses in college hoops, scoring 1.168 points per possession. Even against the tougher opposition in Big 12 play, the Bears have only seen that number dip to 1.149, the second-best mark in the league. Baylor’s success hinges on an incredibly high effective field goal percentage of 55.6%, a number boosted by the team’s deadly accuracy from long range. Six of the eight members of Baylor’s core rotation have made at least a third of their threes in league play, and the team has knocked down 41% of their long-range looks this season.

With a big, athletic frontline, the Bears also extend possessions when they happen to miss shots. The team’s 37% mark for offensive rebounding ranks in the Top 40 nationally, and that percentage has actually ticked up slightly in league games. On defense, that length and athleticism also leads to a lot of blocked shots, and the team’s 15.1% swat percentage is ranked 14th in the nation.

Where that height and athletic ability fails the Bears is on the defensive glass. Baylor is actually one of the 100 worst teams in Division I when it comes to securing defensive boards, as the team allows opponents to reclaim 34.3% of their misses. Under Scott Drew, the Bear defense has been synonymous with the 2-3 zone, although this year they have mixed in much more man and even a 1-3-1 look. With the team not used to having box out assignments in the zone, they have had difficulties remembering to put a body on opposing rebounders when playing man. For a Texas team that is actually very good at grabbing offensive boards, this could be huge.

Meet the Bears

While the Baylor lineup is full of highly-touted recruits and potential NBA lottery picks, the biggest impact this season has come from a junior college transfer. A player of the year at the JUCO level, Pierre Jackson (No. 55) has earned a starting spot in the team’s last two games, and it’s easy to see why. The Baylor offense is a completely different animal with Jackson on the floor, as he dices up defenses with his dribble penetration and always seems to put his teammates in the perfect position to score.

In conference play, Jackson is nearly averaging an unconventional double-double, posting 14 points and nine assists each night. In addition to being able to put the ball on the floor and thread the needle with ridiculous passes, the former Southern Idaho standout is also practically automatic from long range. In Big 12 games, Jackson has drilled 53.3% of his looks from behind the arc.

Joining Jackson in the backcourt is another guy who cans it from deep, Canadian product Brady Heslip (No 5). A transfer from Boston College, Heslip has taken 82% of his shots from downtown this season. With a 47% success rate from three-point range, it’s hard to fault the guy. Although Heslip doesn’t shoot it often from inside the arc, he has shown a deft touch when defenses run him off the perimeter. He can knock down the soft floater, and has even gone old-school with a few banked pull-up Js.

The name that all fans are likely familiar with is sophomore star Perry Jones III (No. 1). Known as PJ3, the 6’11” forward is an all-around stud who has the NBA scouts drooling. He’s played every position in his career, so he’s the deadly breed of big man with great handles who can also knock down jumpers all over the floor.

The main knock on PJ3’s game is that he disappears in the clutch, deferring to teammates when he should be demanding the rock. Critics made this claim following the team’s losses to Kansas and Missouri, but they also failed to point out that he injured his ankle during the game against the Jayhawks. Back to full strength on Tuesday night, PJ3 posted a 21-point, 12-rebound line against the upset-minded Sooners.

Alongside PJ3 in the Baylor frontcourt is senior big man Quincy Acy (No. 4), a high-energy guy who knows how to rock the rim. In his career, Acy has 219 dunks, which account for 51% of his made field goals. He’s often the recipient of great dump-offs from Jackson, but will also fiercely throw down an offensive rebound when the opportunity presents itself. The Bears also run a simple lob play on baseline inbounds situations to get Acy dunks, something they have been doing all four years he’s been on campus. He’s also a force inside on defense, swatting more than two shots per game for a block percentage of 8.4%, a mark that is just outside the Top 50 nationally.

Freshman forward Quincy Miller (No. 30) rounds out the starting five for Baylor, and he provides yet another all-around scoring threat. On a team without PJ3, Miller would likely be the go-to guy, but at Baylor he’s an incredibly-talented second option. He had major knee surgery during his senior year of high school, so his first step still isn’t quite as explosive as it once was, but he can still score in bunches with an array of moves and a jump shot that’s good past the arc. In conference play, Miller is tops on the team with 15.3 points per game.

Coming off the bench is point guard A.J. Walton (No. 22), who lost the starting job to Jackson. Known for his outstanding perimeter defense, Walton still averages around 20 minutes per game and will likely be tasked with shutting down J’Covan Brown when he’s on the floor. Walton has a steal percentage of 4.6%, which may not sound like much, but is actually the 25th-best individual mark in the nation.

Senior forward Anthony Jones (No. 41) is another displaced starter, but he is playing his role perfectly on this deep team. He provides a lot of length for the back line of that Baylor zone, but also is a long-range threat that loves to camp out in the corner for kickouts on the offensive end. Jones has made roughly 31% of his threes so far on the season, and is also one of three Bears to have an individual offensive rebounding mark north of 10%.

Sophomore guard Gary Franklin (No. 0) is a transfer from Cal who became eligible at midseason. He’s only playing about 11 minutes per game in conference, and is essentially just a long-range catch-and-shoot threat. Sixteen of his 17 field goal attempts in Big 12 games have come from behind the arc, and he’s hitting at a 37.5% clip.

Cory Jefferson (No. 34) rounds out the core rotation, playing about nine minutes per game against Big 12 opponents. He’s a long and lean 6’9″ forward who will undoubtedly lead the team in blocked shots before he graduates. Against UT-Arlington, he blocked seven shots in 25 minutes on the court. In 10 of the team’s first 17 games, Jefferson swatted at least two shots, but he has seen very little action over the last three contests.

Keys to the game

1) Make second chances count – One of Baylor’s biggest weaknesses is on the defensive glass, which matches up perfectly with the Texas strength of offensive rebounding. The Longhorns must turn those second chances into points if they want to have any chance for an upset this afternoon. It will be even better if Texas can quickly turn those offensive boards into easy putbacks, as the Horns have really struggled in the half-court lately.

2) Get efficient contributions from Brown – A big reason for those half-court struggles has been the ball-dominating play of junior J’Covan Brown. In the team’s last three games, Brown is 18-of-70 from the floor (25.7%), having taken 40% of the team’s shots. When you consider that the Longhorns won one of those games and were in it until the final seconds against both Kansas and Kansas State, one can only wonder how Texas would have fared if Brown involved his teammates a little more.

In addition to eating up possessions with a ton of missed shots, Brown’s one-man show also led to his teammates doing very little when he was off the ball. Most Longhorns stood around on offense, failing to make cuts or set screens, instead waiting for the junior guard to come back to the ball and shoot. If Texas wants to win this tough road test, they will have to get an efficient game from Brown that involves his teammates.

3) Rattle Jackson – When Pierre Jackson is on his game, Baylor is tough to stop. The quick, tiny guard can push the issue in transition, break down the defense in the halfcourt, and hit dagger threes with little separation from his man. That being said, he’s also shown a tendency to make mistakes, and to let those mistakes snowball.

Jackson has picked up a fair number of charges on the season, so quality help defense can pin a few offensive fouls on him. In addition, his turnover rate of more than 30% is incredibly high for a point guard, oftentimes the result of him trying to do too much. The Longhorns don’t necessarily need to apply a ton of pressure on Jackson, but do need to play sound, team defense so they can capitalize when he tries to force things.

With a third of the conference schedule now in the rear-view mirror, the Texas Longhorns are clinging perilously to the NCAA bubble. The young team had two big résumé-building wins within their grasp during the last week, but let both slip through their fingers. Down two against Kansas State last Wednesday, the Longhorns had the ball with 20 seconds left, but turned it over to preserve a Wildcat victory. On Saturday, Texas was up four on a top-five Kansas team with 3:24 left, but failed to score a field goal the rest of the way and let another big win fall through the cracks.

Those losses mean that the Longhorns are now 0-5 in games decided by six points or less. Even more importantly, those two games were missed opportunities to log victories over teams ranked in the Top 25 of the RPI, a key statistic used by the NCAA Selection Committee when choosing teams to put in the tournament.

While the Iowa State Cyclones are currently just 52nd in the RPI, tonight’s game still amounts to a must-win. Against Top 100 RPI competition, the Longhorns are 1-6, with only eight more games against Top 100 teams left on the schedule. Five of those are at the Erwin Center, so Texas must defend home court against quality competition, a trend they can start tonight.

The first meeting

The Longhorns looked to be in a good position when Iowa State do-everything star Royce White was saddled with two early fouls. Unfortunately, the Cyclones made up for their MVP’s absence by torching the Longhorns from long range. At half, Iowa State held a 10-point lead, thanks to an incredible 9-of-12 mark from behind the arc.

Texas roared back in the opening minutes of the second half, powered by a suddenly-rejuvenated J’Covan Brown. The Longhorns completely erased the deficit in less than three minutes, but the comeback bid stalled out following an ankle injury to Brown. The junior stayed in the game for a few more minutes, but was completely ineffective. When he headed to the bench for good, Texas trailed just 49-47. For the next six minutes, the Horns could only manage seven free throws, and Iowa State rebuilt a lead they would never relinquish.

The big story of the game for the Longhorns was the emergence of Clint Chapman. The fifth-year senior set career highs with 19 points and 14 rebounds, shooting 78% from the field. Texas made a concerted effort to get the big man involved early, and the Longhorn guards consistently found him open when they penetrated the lane. The game was clearly a turning point for Chapman, who has exploded in conference play, averaging 10.8 points and 6.8 rebounds in 27.7 minutes. In non-conference games, Chapman had scored just five points and grabbed 4.6 rebounds per game.

Since then…

Iowa State quickly proved that the win over Texas was no fluke, obliterating Texas A&M in College Station on the strength of a triple-double from White, who was still battling flu-like symptoms. The Cyclone schedule quickly toughened up and tested the surprise team, although the transfer-laden roster performed admirably in close games against Missouri and at Kansas. With their record leveled at 2-2, the Cyclones took care of business last week against lower-tier teams in Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, although it took a last-second, banked-in three by Scott Christopherson to knock off the Cowboys in regulation.

In conference play, White is averaging a double-double, scoring 12 points per game to go with 10.2 boards. His free-throw shooting, which has been a constant battle, continues to be subpar. The big man has made just 42.9% of his free throws in Big 12 play, so you can be sure that the Longhorns will be making him earn his points when he gets them out of position on defense.

Freshman Tyrus McGee has also increased his contributions in league play, earning Big 12 Rookie of the Week honors for stellar performances against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. McGee was a blistering 11-of-20 from long range and scored 37 points in the two games, and he also set a career-high with nine boards against the Cowboys.

McGee is not the only Cyclone killing it from long range, and as a result, Iowa State has actually increased the number of threes they attempt. In Big 12 play, the Cyclones have taken 44% of their shots from behind the arc, but when they make 38.8% of their attempts, you can’t blame them. In addition to McGee’s 48% mark in Big 12 games, Iowa State is also getting a solid 41.7% success rate from Christopherson.

Meet the Cyclones
For an in-depth look at the Iowa State roster, check out the game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

Keys to the game

1) Limit the damage from deep – When a team takes nearly half its shots from three-point range, there’s no way you can hope to completely shut down the perimeter. Instead, Texas must attempt to limit the damage that the Cyclones do from outside. Iowa State came out on fire against the Horns in Ames, so you would have to think that Texas will be playing much tighter on the perimeter in this one. If the Longhorns can hold Iowa State at or below their Big 12 rate of 38.8% behind the arc, they have to like their chances.

2) Be aggressive – Texas was able to penetrate at will during the first meeting when J’Covan Brown was in the game. He and Myck Kabongo will have to do the same tonight to ensure that the offense finds success. When teams cut off Texas’ dribble penetration and hedge hard on ball screens, the Longhorns often stand around for the majority of the shot clock before putting up a challenged shot. Texas obviously cannot afford to do that tonight, so the Horns will have to attack early.

3) Get to the line – Building off of the last point, the Longhorns need to earn a chunk of points at the charity stripe tonight. Texas has scored nearly 27% of its points from the line in conference play, thanks in large part to an impressive 76.4% mark at the stripe. With an offense that can often stall and lose all semblance of movement, manufacturing those points with free throws is key.

In the first meeting between these two teams, Sheldon McClellan did an excellent job earning the whistles, scoring 10 of his 14 points at the line, and the Horns scored nearly 34% of their points on free throws. Doing the same tonight will not only help Texas add to the point total, but it could also handcuff Royce White with foul trouble.