The Longhorns return to the Erwin Center after a difficult two-game road trip, but simply returning to a friendly arena won’t make things any easier. This afternoon, Texas has the unenviable task of squaring off with the league-leading Kansas Jayhawks, who arrive in Austin on five days’ rest and riding high after an authoritative win over previously-undefeated Baylor.

We’ve made much of the tough six-game stretch that Texas is currently in the midst of, but this afternoon marks the first of three home games out of the team’s next four contests. While knocking off Kansas, Iowa State, or Missouri won’t be easy — even at home — if the Longhorns are to add to their weak NCAA résumé, the Erwin Center is the most likely place to do it.

The Jayhawks have won all three of their true road games so far this season, but all three wins came against rather weak competition. Southern Cal, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech have an average KenPom rank of 154 in D-I hoops, while the Longhorns currently check in at 25th in Pomeroy’s rankings. Kansas has knocked off big-name teams already this year in the likes of Georgetown, Ohio State, and Baylor, but none came in a true road environment.

By the numbers

For the last seven seasons, the Jayhawks have either won or shared the league’s regular season title, and have added five conference tournament championships during that same stretch. Many observers, myself included, thought that this year would be the season Kansas was finally knocked off of its throne atop the Big 12. Kansas lost four of five starters from last year’s Elite Eight team, but Bill Self has done a phenomenal coaching job to keep his team among the nation’s elite.

Kansas is one of just three teams to have both their adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies ranked in the top ten of Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. That unstoppable offense and suffocating defense add up to a scoring differential of +0.331 point per possession. Even in their first five conference games, which included contests against Baylor and Kansas State, the Jayhawks still have an impressive differential of +0.274.

Kansas has a Player of the Year candidate in Thomas Robinson down low, and his imposing presence is a big reason why the Jayhawks have one of the nation’s five best marks in two-point field-goal defense. On offense, his dominance also has helped Kansas post a 54.4% shooting percentage inside the arc, and allowed the Jayhawks to reclaim 37.1% of their missed shots. When a team shoots as well as Kansas does and gets a lot of second and third chances, it is very difficult to get a stop.

That rebounding advantage extends to the the other end of the court, as well, where the Jayhawks check in just outside the top 20 in defensive rebounding percentage. KU opponents snag just 27.5% of their offensive rebounding opportunities, making it very important for teams to be shooting well if they want to beat the ‘Hawks. Texas has actually done a very good job on the offensive glass so far this year, with a 39.7% mark that is 11th-best in the nation. If the Longhorns want to pull off the upset, they will have to continue to crash the glass and extend possessions against a tough Kansas D.

Meet the Jayhawks

When you introduce a guy as a contender for national Player of the Year, it goes without saying that he’s the star of his team. Already a dominant player as a sixth man last year, Thomas Robinson (No. 0) has taken over the role vacated by the Morris twins and has put up eye-popping numbers all season long.

T-Rob has logged thirteen double-doubles on the year, and actually averages one as well, scoring 17.8 points and 12.3 rebounds per game. Lest you think those numbers were built against creampuff opponents, it should be pointed out that his stats are even better against Big 12 foes. In five conference games, Robinson is averaging 18 points and 12.6 boards.

Robinson is nearly unstoppable on the glass, and has both a solid face-up game and quality post moves, making him a tough match-up for centers and and forwards of all types. The junior also can handle the ball pretty well, giving Kansas an additional player who can push the tempo and try to establish the break after turnovers and missed shots.

The only returning starter from last year’s team is senior Tyshawn Taylor (No. 10), who has had an up-and-down career in Lawrence. After a win over Kansas State, Coach Self said of his point guard, “He makes plays you can’t coach. And then he makes plays where it looks like he’s never been coached.”

That polarity has extended beyond the court, where Taylor has fought members of the football team, said he wanted to transfer on Facebook, and called out his critics on Twitter. Add all of those issues to the fact that sometimes Tyshawn struggles with turnovers, and there are times where the ever-obsessive Jayhawk Nation has been quite critical of their senior leader.

Last season, Taylor put up double-digit scoring lines in sixteen games, including a masterful 20-point, five-assist effort that powered Kansas to revenge and a Big 12 tournament title against Texas. This year, he’s turned those flashes of brilliance into a consistent scoring threat, chipping in 16.2 points per game. Taylor can slice through the defense with the dribble, drills nearly 45% of his long-range attempts, and always seems to come up with big buckets in the clutch.

Joining Taylor in the backcourt is Elijah Johnson (No. 15), who is also an adept ballhandler that can handle point duties. A highly-regarded recruit out of Las Vegas, Johnson struggled to find consistent playing time on an incredibly-loaded Kansas roster during his first two seasons. Now an everyday starter, he’s averaging nearly 10 points a game and provides excellent perimeter defense. While Johnson has only made 30% of his threes, he can heat up in a hurry, as evidenced by his 4-of-8 and 5-of-7 performances from long range against UCLA and Ohio State.

The third guard for Coach Self is Travis Releford (No. 24) a redshirt junior who is yet another slashing threat in the backcourt. At 6’5″, he’s also a quality rebounder at the guard position, snagging more than four boards per game to go with his 10 points. Like Johnson, Releford also plays solid defense on the perimeter, using his height and length to frustrate other guards and post a steal percentage of 2.7%.

In the middle, 7-footer Jeff Withey (No. 5) is the epitome of a role player. Playing only about 22 minutes per game, he still leads the Big 12 with more than three blocks per game and is a big part of Kansas’ dominance in the paint. Even when he’s not blocking shots, his simple presence in the lane can affect opposing offenses, and his 12.2% offensive rebounding percentage is tops on the team. One struggle for Withey this season has been foul trouble, but thanks to his limited minutes, he rarely actually fouls out of the game.

The sixth man for Kansas is Connor Teahan (No. 2), who makes a living on the perimeter. Although he is not the team’s best three-point shooter, he still takes 80% of his shots from behind the arc, and has knocked down 37.5% of them so far this year. Texas has to stay close to the senior guard and make him drive the basketball. Unfortunately, the Jayhawks are great at moving the ball quickly and crisply, so sticking in Teahan’s shirt will be a difficult task.

Kansas also uses a trio of reserves sparingly, getting a combined 26 minutes out of Kevin Young (No. 40), Justin Wesley (No. 4), and Naadir Tharpe (No. 1) in conference play. Young is an athletic forward who has rebounded very well after transferring from Loyola Marymount. Wesley is also a transfer forward, coming to Lawrence by way of Lamar. The younger brother of former Jayhawk Keith Langford, he’s a stout 6’8″, 220 pounds and excels at shot blocking. Tharpe will be the point guard of the future for KU and is extremely quick with the ball. For now, he is simply used to spell Taylor and Johnson for a few minutes each game.

Keys to the game

1) Attack Robinson – There isn’t as much depth on this Jayhawk roster as in years past, and there’s certainly nobody on the bench who can match the skill level of Thomas Robinson. Texas benefited from getting K-State’s Jamar Samuels in foul trouble on Wednesday night, and they would see huge returns from doing the same against T-Rob this afternoon. The caveat here is that Myck Kabongo and J’Covan Brown must be smart about this approach, as both Robinson and Withey can easily block ill-advised shots.

2) Rattle Taylor – While Tyshawn has been a scoring machine as of late, he still has issues controlling the ball. When he is clicking and can dissect a defense, Kansas is practically unstoppable. The Longhorns must force Taylor into mistakes and keep him from feeling comfortable. If not, he and Robinson will likely put up video game numbers en route to an impressive road win.

3) Make it count behind the arc – Texas isn’t one of the best in the country when it comes to three-pointers, but against a stout interior D from Kansas, the Horns will have to knock down some outside shots. The Longhorns were a hot 9-of-16 from long range against Missouri last Saturday, but followed that up with an inefficient 7-of-22 against K-State on Wednesday. Brown was a big part of those long-range struggles against the Wildcats, so he and the Longhorns not only need to knock down their threes, but also make sure that they aren’t forcing up bad looks.

4) Build momentum early – The Frank Erwin Center has been more like a library the last two seasons, but the building has certainly been home to some electric atmospheres in the past, particularly when Kansas was in the house. Texas fans are the type to only cheer when given a reason to do so, which means the Horns need to come out hot if they want to get the full advantage of home court. Fall behind early — which is always a big danger against Kansas — and the apathetic Texas fanbase will likely start chatting about football recruiting news.

The Texas Longhorns continue their brief road trip with yet another test, taking on a talented Kansas State team at the always-dangerous Bramlage Coliseum. This is just one more tough match-up for the Longhorns in the midst of a brutal six-game stretch that includes four games against teams currently ranked in the Top 10.

The Wildcats are much better than their conference record would indicate, as they’ve been forced to take on the league’s three best teams — Baylor, Kansas, and Missouri — in their first four games. Kansas State managed to defend their home court against the Tigers, but stumbled on the road against Oklahoma on Saturday.

Coach Frank Martin was so mad with his team prior to the loss against the Sooners that he made five players run stairs for more than two hours rather than practice. One can only imagine what the team has been put through in the three days since that loss, so you can be sure they will be angry and hungry for a win when they hit the court tonight against Texas.

By the numbers

The Wildcats are not a good shooting team, but still manage to be have one of the most efficient offenses in the country thanks to strong work on the glass and an ability to get to the line. High offensive rebounding percentages and free-throw rates are a trademark of Martin’s teams, and this year’s edition is no exception. The Wildcats are currently 5th-best in the land when it comes to reclaiming their misses, grabbing more than 42% of their opportunities. They also shoot nearly one free throw for every two field goal attempts, a free-throw rate that is 17th-best in Division I.

That success carries over to the defensive side of the ball, where Kansas State has one of the 20 best defensive efficiency marks in Division I, holding opponents to just 0.894 points per possession. Fortunately for the Longhorns, that defensive intensity has let up against the better opponents of the Big 12, as K-State’s conference opponents have scored nearly 1.05 points per possession. It was the suddenly spotty Wildcat defense that had Coach Martin angry enough to dole out that marathon stair session as punishment, so you’d have to think the team made some adjustments leading up to this game.

On paper, the strengths and weaknesses of these two teams match up in an interesting way. The Longhorns reclaim their missed shots with regularity, while K-State doesn’t close out defensive possessions. On the other end of the court, UT struggles to get defensive boards, while K-State is dominant on the offensive glass. With both teams so strong on the offensive boards, this could come down to who makes the most of their second chances.

Both teams also send their opponents to the line quite a bit, with their defensive free-throw rates ranking in the bottom 100 of Division I hoops. Just like the rebounding numbers, that weakness matches up poorly with the opposition’s strength, as both teams also get to the line quite often. While that’s a good sign for a Texas team that typically needs to manufacture points, it also means that on defense the Horns will likely be called for quite a few fouls, something that is problematic with such a short bench.

Meet the Wildcats

Kansas State has a rotation of eight players this season, and although Jacob Pullen and Curtis Kelly have exhausted their eligibility, there are still quite a few familiar faces. The Wildcats return three starters from last year’s team, where they were essentially role players supporting the team’s bearded star. This season, the focus is on a pair of those returning starters who have helped K-State exceed all preseason expectations.

The first of those two veterans is Rodney McGruder (No. 22), who Texas fans will remember all-too-well from his three-point barrage in Austin last season. McGruder was not only an excellent long-range shooter for K-State last year, but also actually led the team in rebounds. This season, he’s claimed the team lead in points, as he’s taken over the role of penetrating scorer from Pullen.

As a result of his new role, McGruder is taking far less threes this season and has seen his numbers drop off. This year, he’s only attempting about a third of his shots from behind the arc, and only connecting on 34.4% of them. Instead, the junior is putting the ball on the floor and attacking the paint, where he loves to elevate and put up soft floaters. He has excellent body control to avoid the charge, so there’s little that defenders can do when McGruder pulls up besides stand tall and hope that his touch is off.

Jamar Samuels (No. 32) is another of the returning starters for K-State, and like McGruder, his role with the team has changed. With Kelly on the roster last year, Samuels was able to use his face-up game with more regularity. As a guy who can blow by other big men yet also body up with them in the post, he offers excellent flexibility on the offensive end.

Without Kelly on the team, Samuels has had to take on more of the physical role, and as a result he’s now manufacturing a ton of his points. He’s tops on the team with nearly seven boards per game, and his hard work on the offensive glass leads to a ton of free throws. Jamar’s free-throw rate is just under 90%, meaning he nearly takes one free throw for every field goal attempt.

The third returning starter is guard Will Spradling (No. 55), and as you can probably guess, his role has changed as well. Used more as an off-guard last season, this year he’s taking over the point guard duties. The son of a coach, he’s proven to be an adept facilitator, leading the team in assists while still finding time to show off his deadly three-point shot. Spradling also moves really well without the ball, so Texas cannot afford to lose him after he passes it off.

Joining Spradling in the backcourt is Martavious Irving (No. 3), a good defender who pressures the ball and can create points with his D. Offensively, he’s not much of a threat, but is usually good for a nice feed or two through traffic. At the moment, it appears he’s in Martin’s doghouse, as he was limited to just 15 minutes against Oklahoma. The coach wouldn’t say which five players he put through the stair workout, but did say that the box score could shed some light on the mystery.

Another starter who was probably a part of the punished quintet is 7-footer Jordan Henriquez (No. 21). He played just eight minutes against the Sooners, but will see much more playing time tonight if Coach Martin has finished making a point. Henriquez is an excellent post defender with great shot-blocking skills, and has even started developing a face-up game on the offensive end. He’s shown the ability to knock down short and mid-range jumpers, but still lacks the consistency and confidence to make it a big part of his game.

The other big man for the Wildcats is freshman Thomas Gipson (No. 42), from Cedar Hill, Texas. At 6’7″, 275 pounds, Gipson looks nothing like an 18-year old, and that strong body has allowed him to immediately make an impact at the college level. The freshman doesn’t have much offensive game outside of the paint, but he has a nice jump hook and is a beast on the boards.

Sixth man Shane Southwell (No. 1) is used mostly for his rebounding and defensive work, but he’s also an excellent passer. The 6’6″ guard from Harlem has the vision of a point guard, and often sets up the big men with great feeds from the perimeter. He can also put the ball on the floor and drive from the wings, but prefers to get looks for his teammates.

The other Wildcat seeing significant minutes off the bench is tiny guard Angel Rodriguez (No. 13), yet another talented Miami product brought to the Little Apple thanks to Martin’s past as a high school coach in the Magic City. Rodriguez is another active perimeter defender and penetrates the lane well despite not having blazing speed. He sat the entire Oklahoma game as a result of poor play against Baylor and a lack of effort in practice, so his role tonight could be limited.

With Coach Martin using the bench as a teaching tool, some of the lesser-used Wildcats have seen a recent spike in minutes. Guard Jeremy Jones (No. 24) had a strong first half against OU with 12 points, but hurt his ankle and hardly played in the second. Freshman wing Nino Williams (No. 11) could also see more playing time tonight, and could create match-up problems with his ability to attack off the dribble.

Keys to the game

1) Limit second chance points – Kansas State often needs second and third chances to make their offensive trips count, so the Longhorns will have to work hard to keep the Wildcats off the glass. K-State clearly has the advantage inside, so there’s no doubt that they will still get their share of offensive rebounds. Texas will just have to try to limit those boards, and also prevent K-State from getting easy putbacks when they do reclaim their misses.

2) Avoid foul trouble – The physical Kansas State frontline is a match-up nightmare for Texas, and their ability to draw fouls and get to the line could really expose the thin Texas frontcourt. The Longhorns were decimated inside by Ricardo Ratliffe on Saturday when Clint Chapman was on the bench with foul trouble, so he’ll have to avoid the whistles tonight. Jaylen Bond and Jonathan Holmes will have to do the same, as Texas needs all the rebounding help it can get.

3) Be aggressive with the ball – While Kansas State gets to the line quite often, they also frequently send their opponents there. The Longhorn guards and wings need to be aggressive with the basketball and attack the defense. The Wildcats have been uncharacteristically weak with their perimeter defense of late, so the opportunity is there. Texas finally has a good free-throw shooting team this season, so the Horns can overcome some of their offensive woes by earning their points the hard way.

The Longhorns embark on the toughest portion of their schedule this afternoon, taking on a top-ten Mizzou squad that was still undefeated at this time last week. In the ensuing five games, Texas will also face Baylor and Kansas State on the road, while hosting Kansas, Iowa State, and this same Missouri team. Every single game is going to be tough to win, which is terrible news in a season where the Horns need every conference win they can get to simply make the NCAA tournament.

The one positive in all of this is that of the three tough road games, this is the one Texas has the best chance in. Against this murderer’s row, that’s not saying a whole lot, but it should be some comfort to Longhorn fans that amongst the league’s elite teams, these Tigers are the best match-up for Texas. The Horns are weakest in the frontcourt, which just so happens to be where the Tigers are thin, as well.

By the numbers

Although Mizzou’s frontcourt leaves a lot to be desired, they still have the best two-point field-goal percentage in the country, knocking down 57.6% of their shots from inside the arc. That’s a result of constantly attacking the paint, whether on the dribble or with smart, hard cuts that lead to easy layups. All told, Mizzou’s offensive efficiency is second in the nation, with the Tigers putting in 1.211 points per possession.

Behind the arc, Missouri is just as dangerous. The Tigers have made nearly 40% of their long-range attempts, led by seniors Kim English (No. 24) and Marcus Denmon (No. 12), who are shooting 53% and 48.7% behind the arc, respectively. The Tigers are also loaded with quick guards in the backcourt, so opposing teams have to decide whether they’d rather give up the blow-by when they are pressuring the perimeter or give up a wide-open three when sagging to cut off penetration. As the numbers show, there’s simply no good choice.

With former coach Mike Anderson now in Fayetteville, the Tigers no longer employ relentless full-court pressure, but they still play nasty defense. Under former Texas assistant Frank Haith, this year’s Missouri team just waits to turn up the pressure until after opponents have crossed half-court. Their talented crop of guards can all defend well on the perimeter, and they still force turnovers on more than 23% of possessions despite abandoning the “Fastest 40 Minutes of Basketball” approach. The high-octane offense and tenacious D still add up to a quick tempo, however, but the Tigers “only” average 69 possessions per game, currently the 82nd-fastest pace in Division I.

It’s also worth noting that the Tigers play good D without fouling. Their defensive free-throw rate is 15th-best in D-I at the moment, as opponents shoot just a little more than one free throw for every four field goal attempts. That discipline on the defensive end is huge, as Missouri is now down to just a seven-man rotation and cannot afford to have any players in foul trouble.

Meet the Tigers

That seven-man Missouri rotation was supposed to be nine deep, but a devastating injury and ill-timed transfer have dramatically changed the make-up of the Tiger roster. Senior forward Laurence Bowers tore his ACL on October 3rd, just a little more than a month before the Tigers tipped off the season, leaving Mizzou with only three legitimate options in the frontcourt. Then, just before conference play began, Toronto product Kadeem Green announced his intentions to transfer somewhere closer to home.

The Bowers injury and Green transfer left Ricardo Ratliffe (No. 10) as the sole big man in the starting five. At just 6’8″, Ratliffe is severely undersized as the primary post option against most Big 12 teams, but he knows how to establish good post position before the entry pass and makes quick, confident moves once he gets the ball. He’s smooth on his spin move and is solid with the jump hook, so even though Clint Chapman and Alexis Wangmene have a few inches on Ratliffe, they’ll have to push him off the block and deny those deep entry passes.

The Tigers have only one other big man in Steve Moore (No. 32), who comes off the bench to average just under 17 minutes per game. Moore is nowhere near the offensive threat of Ratliffe, but is a stout 6’9″ guy that provides some rebounding help and defensive presence in the paint.

With the lack of frontcourt options, the Tigers have had to rely on their strength in the backcourt. Coach Haith has elected to go with a four-guard look, and so far it has worked to near-perfection. Senior Marcus Denmon (No. 12) is the Big 12’s leading retuning scorer, and he’s near the top of the charts again this season with his 17.9 points per game. He’s incredibly quick with the basketball and can slice right through the defense to get to the rack. As mentioned earlier, he’s also a very dangerous three-point shooter, so it’s difficult to keep Denmon in check for very long.

The man facilitating the offense is sophomore guard Phil (Flip) Pressey (No. 1), who has made an amazing leap from his freshman year. The younger of two Presseys on the team, Phil struggled with turnovers during his first collegiate season, but has turned into a highly efficient point guard this year. He’s currently posting a 2.7 assist-to-turnover ratio, but is averaging 5.5 assists per game over his last ten.

Perhaps the area of greatest improvement for Flip this season is his new-found ability to adjust his speed as he reads the defense. Instead of flying recklessly into a waiting defense, he now hesitates, watches the play develop, and finds the cracks or passing lanes. If a team is slow getting back, he finds another gear and will take it coast to coast. Although this current Missouri roster is loaded with seniors, the future is still bright with Pressey running the point for two more years.

Phil’s older brother, Matt Pressey (No. 3) is possibly the best perimeter defender on the team, which is really saying something with this group of guards. He’s also no slouch on the offensive end, chipping in nearly nine points a game while making a third of his attempts from behind the arc.

Senior Kim English (No. 24) rounds out the starting five, where he’s playing what amounts to the power forward role despite having the body of a small forward. As previously mentioned, he’s been practically unconscious from outside so far this season, drilling 53% of his threes. English is also able to put the ball on the floor and slash from the wings to create looks for himself. His prowess from behind the arc plus his ability to generate good looks have the senior ranked second in the nation with an insane 68.7% effective field goal percentage.

Off the bench, Missouri’s sixth man is junior Michael Dixon (No. 11), who is another excellent perimeter defender for the Tigers. Despite seeing just 26 minutes per game off the bench, he’s still second on the team with 27 steals and he converts those turnovers into fast-break points. Once the starting point guard, Dixon has adjusted well to his new role as sixth man, which is a big reason for Missouri’s success so far. The best teams have guys who understand their roles, and the maturity with which Dixon has handled himself after losing the starting job to Pressey is a boost to the team’s performance and chemistry.

Keys to the game

1) Play sound team defense – The Tigers make great cuts without the basketball and have a roster filled with excellent ballhandlers who can attack the paint off the dribble. Texas will constantly be challenged on the defensive end, and will undoubtedly be plays where someone loses their man or gives up penetration. The key is for the Horns to play well as a defensive unit and be aware enough to provide timely help. Missouri can move the ball very well, but forcing them to work the ball around even more on busted assignments will keep things from getting out of hand.

2) Weather the storm – Missouri can score in bunches, and a full Mizzou Arena is an absolute powderkeg. With the planned “blackout” for today’s game, you can tell that fans are still treating this as a big game despite it being a down year for Texas. When the Tigers get on one of their inevitable runs, the roof is likely to blow right off the building. These young Longhorns have yet to produce a win under hostile conditions — sorry, an 80% empty L.A. Sports Arena doesn’t count — so they must show poise when things get tough this afternoon.

3) Clean the glass – Missouri doesn’t miss often, but the Longhorns can’t afford to give them extra chances when they do. Fortunately, this is one of the rare times this season that Texas has the edge in the frontcourt. The Longhorns must take advantage of this and close out good defensive possessions by securing the boards, something they had difficulty doing against A&M even when the ball was right in their hands. On the other end of the court, if Clint Chapman, Jonathan Holmes, or Jaylen Bond can get some putbacks, it will only make things easier against a tough Tiger D.

4) Avoid foul trouble – Not only is this important because the Longhorn roster lacks depth, but avoiding fouls also keeps the Tigers off the free-throw line, where they are practically automatic. Dixon has made 91% of his attempts, while Denmon is just a shade under 93% from the charity stripe. As a team, the Tigers are one of the 10 best in the country when it comes to converting the freebies, sinking almost 77% at the line.

The past two summers have been a blur of rumors and news reports surrounding the massive wave of realignment hitting conferences from coast to coast. Two years ago, the Big 12 was on the verge of collapse after Colorado and Nebraska departed and four other league members weighed an exodus to what was then the Pac-10. This summer and fall, the league saw more changes with the SEC’s addition of Texas A&M and Missouri and the Big 12’s own inclusion of West Virginia and TCU. Elsewhere, the Big East expanded from one ocean to the other, while losing two of its basketball powerhouses to the ACC.

The unfortunate byproduct of this Conferencegeddon is the loss of historic rivalries. It appears all but certain that the Border War between Kansas and Missouri is now confined to the history books, while the long-standing series between Texas A&M and Texas is dead for the foreseeable future. Tonight marks the last time that the state’s two flagship schools will meet on the hardwood of the Frank Erwin Center for quite some time.

Beyond the historical implications, this game is huge for both teams. When you look beyond the bragging rights, it becomes apparent that both squads have to face this game as a “must win.” The Aggies are struggling, dropping their first two conference games after being picked by coaches to win the league title in the preseason. The offense is scuttling and the season is in danger of spinning down the drain if the Aggies cannot right the ship tonight.

The Longhorns, meanwhile, follow tonight’s game with a brutal six-game stretch that includes road trips to Missouri, Kansas State, and Baylor and home games against Kansas, Missouri, and Iowa State. The Bears, Tigers, and Jayhawks are three of the league’s best teams, if not its three best. Iowa State, meanwhile, surprised Texas in Ames and shellacked the Aggies in College Station. Even with solid performances, there is a very real possibility that the Longhorns could could still just get one or two wins during that stretch. If they can’t secure a win against A&M tonight before heading into that buzzsaw, it could be a very long conference season.

By the numbers

Texas A&M is having a lot of difficulty putting the ball into the basket, especially now that conference play has begun. The Aggies are in the bottom 100 of Division I hoops when it comes to adjusted offensive efficiency, scoring just 0.955 points per possession. In their two conference losses to Baylor and Iowa State, the offense is even worse, putting in just 0.773 points each time down the court.

A big part of this problem is the team’s reliance on long-range jumpers, with many of them coming from the “danger zone” just inside the arc. Those shots from 17 to 20 feet are nearly as tough as three-pointers, yet offer just the same amount of points as a layup. In addition to being an inefficient strategic choice, the reliance on long jumpers also produces less trips to the line. As a result, Texas A&M has one of the twenty worst free-throw rates in the country, taking just over one free throw for every four field goal attempts.

What keeps A&M in games is their stifling defense. The team’s adjusted defensive efficiency numbers are 35th best in the country according to Ken Pomeroy, built upon the strength of great team defense and rebounding. The Aggies have the perimeter absolutely locked down, with opponents making just 26.4% of their attempts, the 8th-best defensive mark in Division I. When opponents miss, the Aggies limit them to reclaiming just 27.7% of their misses, making them one of the 30 best defensive rebounding teams in the land.

Meet the Aggies

Coach Billy Kennedy has seen his bench shrink over the last few weeks, as big man Kourtney Roberson (No. 32) has been sidelined by an ankle injury, and freshman guard Jamal Branch elected to transfer to St. John’s. That leaves the Aggies with a core rotation of eight players, although Kennedy will likely use senior transfer Zach Kinsley (No. 23) and freshman Daniel Alexander (No. 20) for at least a few minutes each.

The Aggies are led by senior Dash Harris (No. 5), a true point guard. Harris doesn’t have a good jump shot and doesn’t often attack the rim, but he brings lockdown defense to the perimeter and facilitates the offense in the half-court sets. When Dash does drive the lane, he prefers to dish it to open teammates as the defense collapses, as evidenced by his season averages of 4.2 assists and 5.4 points per game.

Joining him in the backcourt is Elston Turner (No. 31), a Houston native who transferred to A&M from Washington. Turner brings the team its only true long-range threat, and he leads the Aggies with a 39.7% mark from behind the arc. Elston can also create by putting the ball on the floor, and has been the team’s most consistent scorer in what has been an anemic offensive year. Turner averages 13.3 points per game and is one of the team’s only good free throw shooters, knocking down more than 80% of his attempts.

Junior Khris Middleton (No. 22) is still working his way back from an early-season knee injury, so it’s been tough for him to match the numbers of his breakout sophomore season. Still, he’s managed to become the team’s second-leading scorer with 12.6 points per game. When Middleton slashes from the wings, he’s incredibly tough to defend. Unfortunately, his jumper is accurate from all over the floor, so teams can’t simply sag off to take away the drive. At 6’7″, he also provides solid rebounding from the wings, and is actually second on the team with five boards per game.

Inside, senior David Loubeau (No. 10) has a solid face-up game with a good jump shot that he can pop at a moment’s notice. The 6’8″ forward uses the threat of that jumper to stretch out the floor a bit, but still chips in nearly five rebounds a night. Alexis Wangmene has had issues defending face-up forwards, while Clint Chapman has been rather inconsistent against all types of opponents. This could turn out to be one of the key match-ups in the game.

Loubeau’s frontcourt sidekick is Ray Turner (No. 35) a 6’9″ junior from Houston. He’s really smooth with the ball for a big guy, so don’t be surprised when he shows off some nice, quick spin moves from the block. Turner also is the team’s best rebounder, ripping down 6.6 boards per contest, and is third on the team with 11.4 points per game. Just as with Loubeau, how the Horns handle Turner inside will have a big impact on this game.

Freshman Jordan Green (No. 13) is getting some extra playing time with Branch’s departure at midseason, and he’s now averaging more than 18 minutes per game. At 6’4″, Green is a freakish athlete with a great vertical, but it’s taken some time for him to adjust to playing at the college level. His shot was really ugly for the first few weeks of the season, while he’s had a consistent issue with hanging on tho the ball. His 27.3% turnover rate is by far the worst of the core rotation.

Junior wingman Naji Hibbert (No. 2) is having a tough time making shots this year, which is bad news for a guy who isn’t known as a penetrator. Hibbert has taken more than a third of his shots from behind the arc, but is shooting an abysmal 13.3% from long range. The Longhorns can definitely shade off of Hibbert when he’s on the court, perhaps making it a little easier to limit the Aggies inside.

The Aggies also have a solid center on the bench in Keith Davis (No. 4). He has yet to make a major offensive impact in his first year and a half at A&M, but has been a rebounding machine so far this season. Despite playing less than 16 minutes per game, Davis is averaging more than four boards per game, posting an incredible 20.1% mark on the defensive glass. If Davis had played just five more minutes so far this season, his defensive rebounding percentage would rank him among the top 150 players in the country.

Keys to the game

1) Crash the glass – The Aggie offense has been particularly bad in recent weeks, but the only thing keeping them from being downright abysmal has been an ability to earn second-chance points. Texas A&M reclaims nearly 35% of their missed shots, while the Longhorns have been near the bottom when it comes to defensive rebounding. When a team is struggling on offense, often a few easy buckets is all it takes to build some confidence. The Longhorns cannot afford to give A&M unchallenged putbacks, and they must limit second-chance points.

2) Attack with the dribble – If J’Covan Brown is back to full speed in this game, it will be even easier for the Longhorns to penetrate against the Aggies. If not, Myck Kabongo, Sterling Gibbs, and Sheldon McClellan will have to shoulder the load. Texas A&M has played sound defense all season, but they have shown lapses when faced with quick, driving guards. Iowa State’s Scott Christopherson repeatedly found his way to the rim on Saturday, so Texas fans will have to hope their guards can do the same tonight.

3) Avoid foul trouble – The Aggies have an advantage in the frontcourt tonight, one that will only be strengthened if the thin Longhorn roster is constrained by foul difficulties. Chapman, Wangmene, Jonathan Holmes, and Jaylen Bond are going to have their hands full on defense tonight, so they cannot afford to give up cheap fouls. Bond wasted a few of his personals on the offensive end in the loss to Iowa State, so he and the other Longhorn forwards must be more careful tonight.

The NCAA tournament hopes of the Texas Longhorns took a hit on Wednesday night, as the young team let the opportunity for a precious road win slip away in Ames, Iowa. Predicted by many national pundits to be a bubble team, the Longhorns will need every win that they can get in Big 12 play, making the loss to Iowa State even more damaging. This evening, the team is back in action against the Oklahoma State Cowboys, another team that provides a ripe target for one of those important league victories.

By the numbers

Oklahoma State has played a challenging non-conference slate, but hasn’t fared well against the tougher teams on the schedule. The Cowboys are just 1-6 against opponents ranked in the Top 100 of Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. Of their other seven wins this year, one came against Langston University of the NAIA, and the remainder came against teams with an average KenPom ranking of 213.

The Cowboys haven’t been particularly efficient on offense, with their adjusted mark of 1.018 points per possession checking in just above the national median. What has kept Oklahoma State competitive is a solid defense, as opponents are scoring just 0.925 points per possession against the Pokes.

It should be noted that Oklahoma State’s solid defensive numbers are thanks in large part to dominating the worst teams on their schedule. In their seven wins, the Cowboys are limiting opponents to just 0.851 points per possession. In those six losses against Top 100 competition, their defense concedes 1.072 PPP. With the Texas offense checking in near the top of the efficiency rankings, it’s likely that they will put a performance similar to Oklahoma State’s other quality opponents.

With the ball, Oklahoma State is having a tougher time. As mentioned above, their overall efficiency numbers aren’t too far above the national median. Their shooting percentage and offensive rebounding numbers both put them in the bottom 100 of D-I hoops, but their lack of turnovers keeps the offense from really struggling. The Pokes have an eFG of just 45.7%, and reclaim only 27.1% of their rebounds. For a Texas team that has had issues defending the perimeter and cleaning the defensive glass, these are great numbers to see on the scouting report.

Meet the Cowboys

There was promise and hope in Stillwater during the offseason, as the arrival of highly-touted freshman Le’Bryan Nash (No. 2) made it appear that the Pokes could be a dark-horse contender in a wide-open Big 12. Instead, the team has been ravaged by injuries and departures, leaving head coach Travis Ford with a short, inexperienced bench.

In the last few weeks, both Reger Dowell and Fred Gulley announced their intentions to transfer, leaving Coach Ford without a single member of his 2009 recruiting class. Earlier this week, Jeff Goodman of CBS Sports wrote an excellent breakdown of Ford’s terrible track record of losing recruits, both at Oklahoma State and UMass.

In addition to all of the departures, Ford was also dealt a blow when Jean-Paul Olukemi tore his ACL in the final non-conference game against Virginia Tech. Not surprisingly, that severe of an injury has ended his season. The Pokes are also without nasty big man Darrell Williams, who has remained on the roster since rape charges were filed against him last season. His status with the team won’t be reviewed until the completion of his trial, which was originally scheduled to begin on Monday, but has been pushed back until May.

All told, that leaves the Cowboys with just an eight-man rotation, including five freshmen. Senior Keiton Page (No. 12) is the most experienced player left on the roster, and his recent hot streak has him leading the team with 14.5 points per game. He’s always been known as a three-point threat, but has had to develop more of a driving game during these last two seasons thanks to the team’s point guard issues. Without a true facilitator, Page could no longer camp out on the perimeter and play as simply a spot-up shooter.

Joining Page in the backcourt is redshirt freshman Brian Williams (No. 4). With Gulley and Dowell putting Stillwater in the rearview mirror, Williams earned his first career start against Texas Tech on Wednesday night. He struggled from the floor in his 26 minutes of action, knocking down just one of his six attempts.

On the wing, freshman Nash was expected to be a savior at Gallagher-Iba, but has yet to live up to expectations so far. At 6’7″, 230 pounds, Nash has the body to compete down low, but has the handles and jumper to stretch the floor and play outside. He’s second on the team with 12.4 points per game, but he’ll have to have a big performance tonight if Oklahoma State hopes to pull off the road win.

In the middle, junior transfer Philip Jurick (No. 44) is the second oldest player on the team. A four-star recruit out of Chattanooga, he originally committed to play for the Volunteers, but never played a single minute in Knoxville. He transferred to play junior college ball at Chattanooga State before ending up in Stillwater as the team’s center.

Jurick averages just over 18 minutes per game, but is still tops on the team with an average of six rebounds. The 6’11” big man is also a big part of the team’s defensive success, as his block percentage of 13.3% is 11th-best in the nation.

The team’s fifth starter will likely be Michael Cobbins (No. 20), a 6’8″ redshirt freshman who also is a shot-blocking threat. He was a highly-regarded recruit in high school, but a nasty knee injury ruined his senior year and necessitated last season’s redshirt.

Coming off the bench, freshman point guard Cezar Guerrero (No. 1)is fifth on the team in scoring with 7.5 points per game. Besides Page, he’s the team’s biggest threat from long range, where he’s launched nearly half of his attempts this year. He’s also incredibly quick with the ball, but has played a bit out of control so far this season. Thanks to the backcourt attrition, Guerrero will have to grow up quickly in Big 12 play.

Sophomore guard Markel Brown (No. 22) has started 11 of the team’s 14 games, but an injury forced him to be the sixth man in Wednesday’s win over Texas Tech. Brown, a former high school state champion in Louisiana, provides Oklahoma State with sound perimeter defense and valuable rebounding from the wings. With the team reeling and full of freshmen, the sophomore will have to step up as a leader down the stretch.

The only other Cowboy at Coach Ford’s disposal is Marek Souček, a Czech 7-footer who had made only three appearances for a total of six minutes during the team’s first 13 games. With Olukemi sidelined for the year, Souček was called upon for 15 minutes in the win over Tech, and responded well. As expected, he’s a true Euro-style big who is more comfortable on the perimeter and midrange than banging against big bodies in the paint.

Keys to the game

1) Establish the inside presence – With only Jurick and Souček providing size inside, the Longhorns need to get Clint Chapman started early, as they did against Iowa State. Establishing that inside presence also includes dominating the glass, something that the Longhorns should be able to do against a poor-rebounding Cowboy team. Even if J’Covan Brown is unable to play or is ineffective thanks to his injury, the Longhorns should be fine if they can play well inside.

2) Control the basketball – In three of the team’s last four games, the Longhorns have coughed it up on more than 22% of their possessions. Oklahoma State has not forced an inordinate number of turnovers this year, but Texas cannot afford to make unforced errors that give the Cowboys extra possessions.

3) Chase Page off the perimeter – Page is averaging 23.7 points over his last three games, including a solid 3-of-5 performance behind the arc against Tech on Wednesday night. The senior guard is always dangerous spotting up outside, so the Longhorns must make him put the ball on the floor. Page is much more effective on the quick catch-and-shoot, and tends to struggle when having to create his own shots.