For Michele Bachmann, last night’s Iowa caucus was the end of the road for her 2012 presidential campaign. On the other end of the spectrum, frontrunners Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul didn’t lock up November’s general election, but kept themselves alive by proving contenders to 120,000 farmers in America’s heartland.

That seemingly random intro leads us to this awkward segue, where we make the leap that for the Texas Longhorns, tonight’s conference opener at Iowa State provides a test similar to the Iowa caucus. A game that is seemingly inconsequential on paper — much like the opinions of 120,000 people in a country of 300-million — could prove huge in Texas’ pursuit of an NCAA bid. While a ticket to March Madness pales in comparison to a national party’s ticket to the general election, it’s clear that how Texas performs tonight will set the stage for conference play.

The Longhorns finished non-conference with a solid 10-3 mark, but lack any signature wins to beef up their NCAA résumé. The victory over Temple came when the Owls were lacking two star players, while a road win at UCLA is tarnished by the pathetic season the Bruins are stumbling through. In a very deep and balanced Big 12, the Longhorns will be tested every single night, and have to take the wins wherever they can get them. While the Cyclones are a scary (but inconsistent) team and Hilton Coliseum is not an easy venue to steal a win in, tonight’s game approaches must-win territory when you consider that the Longhorns have to play two games each against Baylor, Kansas, and Missouri.

By the numbers

Iowa State is near the top of the charts when it comes to three-pointers, and that’s clearly by design. Coach Fred Hoiberg typically has four players spread out on the perimeter, and often even moves big man Royce White (No. 30) to the top of the key for ball screens and iso plays. As a result, the Cyclones take nearly 43% of their shots from behind the arc, the 17th-highest percentage in the nation.

Fortunately, Iowa State is very streaky from behind the arc. On the year, they are making 37.8% from long range, which puts them in the Top 60 nationally. But when you break those numbers down, it’s clear that the Cyclones are a perfect example of the “live by the three, die by the three” cliché. In the team’s three losses — to Drake, Northern Iowa, and Michigan — they made just 16-of-64 (25%) from beyond the arc. In their ten wins, they sank 41.3% of their attempts, averaging just under 10 makes per victory.

The Cyclones also earn a fair share of points at the line, with more than 17 per game coming from free throws. Combining all of those freebies with the three-pointers means that just 42.3% of Iowa State’s points come from inside the arc. While that may seem like a large percentage, there are only 11 teams in the country who score less points from two-point range.

As would be expected, the bulk of the team’s free throws come from White getting fouled down low. Beyond that, there are some surprising numbers coming from guard Bubu Palo (No. 1), a former walk-on from Ames who has finally earned a scholarship for the spring semester. Palo draws an average of seven fouls per 40 minutes, and has an improbably high free-throw rate of 192.9%, meaning he shoots almost twice as many free throws as field goals.

Meet the Cyclones

As you could likely guess by this point, as Royce White goes, so go the Cyclones. At 6’8″, 270 pounds, he’s a remarkably big guy who was voted Big 12 Newcomer of the Year despite not playing a competitive game of basketball in over 900 days. White won a state title as a high schooler in Minnesota and elected to play close to home for Tubby Smith and the Golden Gophers. Unfortunately, he never played a single game there, sidelined by a slew of off the court issues — shoplifting at the Mall of America, assault of a mall security guard, and the theft of a laptop from a Minnesota dorm room.

With a fresh start at Iowa State, White has been able to show off his impressive skillset. Despite the big body, he is a deft passer and pretty good ball handler, giving Coach Hoiberg more flexibility on the offensive end. With that unusual blend of talents, White is tops on the team in points (13.1 per game), rebounds (8.9), and assists (3.9). He hardly played in the team’s last game thanks to flu-like symptoms, but should be back to full strength after three days of rest.

With defenses paying so much attention to White, that opens things up on the perimeter for the Cyclone guards. Chris Babb, a 6’5″ transfer from Penn State, is knocking down 36.4% of his long range attempts. He’s primarily a perimeter player, with nearly 80% of his shots coming from beyond the arc. Babb’s length in the backcourt is also a great boost on defense, and provides the Cyclones with an edge on the glass. He also runs the floor really well, which is huge for a team that can sometimes get bogged down in its half-court sets.

While Babb is seemingly glued to the perimeter on the offensive end, the team’s true marksman is senior Scott Christopherson (No. 11), who has made more than 40% of his attempts so far this year. Shockingly, that number actually represents a decline for the senior, who boasts a career three-point mark of 43%. It’s also worth noting that even Christopherson fits with Iowa State’s Transfer U theme, as he played his freshman season at Marquette in his home state of Wisconsin.

The third guard in Iowa State’s starting five is former Michigan State Spartan Chris Allen (No. 4), who is the closest thing the team has to a starting point guard. Although White can bring the ball up the floor and is the top assist man, Allen is generally the one setting the table on offense. Like Babb and Christopherson, the senior is a threat from outside, where he’s made 35.6% of his attempts. Unlike the other two guards, though, Allen can create shots for himself off the dribble, and does a good job attacking the paint on the bounce to get the defense moving.

Rounding out the starting lineup is Canadian product Melvin Ejim (No. 3), who doesn’t typically put up big numbers, but provides a solid rebounding and defensive presence. In the team’s most recent game, the sophomore was thrust into a bigger role thanks to White’s illness. He responded very well, posting an impressive 15-point, 15-rebound line that included a pair of triples.

The Cyclone bench isn’t used for a ton of minutes, but Coach Hoiberg does have instant offense available in the form of Tyrus McGee (No. 25). An All-American at the junior college level, McGee is an exciting player who can create shots without turning it over. Although he averages less than 20 minutes per game, McGee is fourth on the team in scoring with 9.8 points per game and has a turnover rate of just 10%.

The other primary reserve for Iowa State is Palo, who won the state title in Iowa as a point guard. On a team that lacks a quality floor general, that experience translates into playing time, and he sees the floor for 16 minutes per game. As previously mentioned, Palo does a great job attacking with the dribble and drawing fouls. Unfortunately, he’s not as good when it comes to converting those attempts, sinking just 64.8% of his tries at the charity stripe.

Iowa State also has a pair of frontcourt reserves each averaging about 12 minutes per game in Anthony Booker (No. 22) and freshman Percy Gibson (No. 24). Booker is yet another transfer for Coach Hoiberg, coming to Ames from Southern Illinois. He has a serviceable offensive skillset, but typically just produces on the glass and on the defensive end.

Gibson was the top-rated high school prospect out of Detroit and had originally committed to Dayton. But when Flyer coach Brian Gregory departed for Georgia Tech, assistant Cornell Mann made his way to Ames. Having been recruited by Mann, Gibson made the same switch and ended up at Iowa State. He’s yet to truly explode, but you can already see his skills. Gibson is a long, lean 6’9″, which makes him more mobile than a lot of other bigs, and that leads to some easy buckets and boards.

Keys to the game

1) Lock down the perimeter – Although White is the headlining star on this team, the numbers make it clear that Iowa State wins and loses games behind the arc. The Cyclones will certainly make some threes in this game, but if Texas can limit the damage, they will stand a good chance to win this one on the road.

2) Attack on offense – The Cyclone defense has looked porous at times, falling victim to both dribble penetration and off-ball movement. Teams are constantly abusing them with backdoor cuts, while driving guards often find their trip to the rim is rather easy. If J’Covan Brown and Myck Kabongo play aggressively, the Texas offense should be able to pile up some points.

3) Clean the defensive glass – It’s been a recurring theme in this section of the game previews, but it bears repeating. Texas must limit second-chance points by closing out defensive possessions with rebounds. On paper, Iowa State’s perimeter-oriented attack would seem to make this an easier task, but the ‘Clones are actually one of the 100 best offensive rebounding teams in the nation. The Longhorns have to neutralize White and Ejim on the glass to make sure the sharpshooting Cyclones don’t get extra looks.

After a nine-day layoff, the Texas Longhorns return to action this afternoon, closing out 2011 against their old Southwest Conference rivals, the Rice Owls. In recent years, the Owls have not proven to be much of a challenge for the Longhorns, dropping all five games against Texas since Rick Barnes has arrived on the 40 Acres.

Ben Braun has the Owls headed in the right direction, though. Last season, the Longhorns won by just three points when they faced Rice at the Erwin Center, while last week the Owls snapped Texas A&M’s 67-game non-conference winning streak at Reed Arena. If the Longhorns were looking for an easy victory to wash the taste of the North Carolina debacle out of their mouths, this match-up certainly doesn’t fit that bill.

By the numbers

Rice is a big team by Conference USA standards, and as a result they make their living in the paint. Nearly 80% of their points come from the free throw line or inside the arc, while the team’s free-throw rate is 14th-highest in Division I. The Owls have an FTR of 48.3%, meaning that they average almost one free throw for every two field goal attempts.

On the other side of the ball, that formidable size equates to solid defense inside and some questionable numbers at the perimeter. The Owls are allowing D-I opponents to make more than 38% of their threes this year, a number that puts them in the bottom 50 nationally. Of course, it should be noted that those stats are skewed slightly by an insane 14-of-29 performance by Iowa State when the teams met in South Padre last month.

On the glass, the size of the Rice roster doesn’t add up to the numbers you might expect. Not surprisingly, their defensive rebounding percentage is 20th in the nation, as the Owls only allow opponents to reclaim 26.6% of their missed shots. On the offensive end, however, Rice is rather mediocre. Despite having Arsalan Kazemi, whose personal OR% of 15.3 is 37th in the country, the team is grabbing just 31.5% of their offensive board opportunities, slotting the Owls a disappointing 211th in the nation.

Meet the Owls

Everything begins and ends with Kazemi (No. 14) for Rice. The Iranian-born big man is averaging a double-double, logging 13.9 points and 12.5 rebounds per game. At 6’7″, he can play the post against most C-USA opponents, but is often undersized against major conference foes. Kazemi has a solid array of post moves, however, and is a highly skilled passer and serviceable ball handler.

Even with all those skills, Kazemi makes his hay at the free throw line. His free-throw rate is 13th-highest in D-I hoops this year, and he finished his sophomore campaign with the second-best mark in the nation. Fortunately, Kazemi is only making about 63% of his free throws this year, so the main concern for the Longhorns is foul trouble. With a thin frontcourt, Texas will have to make sure they can defend Rice’s big man without drawing too many whistles.

The other junior leader for Rice is Tamir Jackson (No. 3), a combo guard from New Jersey who has taken the role of point by default. Averaging 13.7 points and 3.6 assists per game, Jackson is a strong 6’3″ guard who can slash to the rim, draw fouls, and finish through the contact. Like Kazemi, Jackson also struggles at the line, where he has made just 63.5% of his attempts so far.

Joining Jackson in the backcourt is sharpshooter Connor Frizzelle (No. 4), a senior who has struggled in his three previous meetings with Texas. Despite averaging 27.3 minutes in those games, Frizzelle has made just 1-of-9 from behind the arc and averaged just 3.7 points.

This year, he’s third on the team with 8.8 points per game, and is the team’s most reliable shooter on the kickouts from Kazemi. Frizzelle also has a good pull-up jumper, and likes to use it after a strong head fake draws the close-out from opposing defenders.

The team’s other spot-up shooter on the perimeter is Lucas Kuipers (No. 20), also a senior. At 6’8″, the forward from Minnesota is a threat both inside and outside, and is one of the team’s better rebounders outside of Kazemi. On offense, he typically hangs out around the perimeter, spacing the floor for the big man inside. On defense, though, he’s a big part of Rice’s success at limiting opponents to one-shot possessions.

The fifth starting slot has been split between a pair of freshmen, Julian DeBose (No. 15) and Dylan Ennis (No. 31). DeBose is an athletic wingman out of Washington, D.C., but is working his way back from an ankle injury that kept him out of the A&M game. On Wednesday night, he played just seven minutes against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.

Ennis is a 6’2″ Canadian guard who finished his high school career at Lake Forest Academy in Chicago. He’s a natural leader who will likely take over full-time point guard duties in the future, but is still averaging more than 22 minutes as a freshman. He is really struggling from long range, where he’s made just 19% of his attempts this season, so the Longhorns can sag off to limit his ability to drive the lane.

Off the bench, freshman wing Ahmad Ibrahim (No. 0) has had an impressive start to his college career. Originally from Lebanon, Ibrahim has an ability to find the cracks in the defense for flashy drives to the hoop. He has solid handles and great body control, so even when his shot looks impossible to finish, he typically finds a way to sink it.

The international theme continues for the Owls when you look at frontcourt reserve Omar Oraby (No. 34), who hails from Cairo, Egypt. Although he’s playing just a little over seven minutes per game, he has made huge steps forward in his sophomore campaign. At 7’2″, Oraby is still a raw talent, but he has really soft hands to corral rebounds and moves well laterally to help out on defense. And of course, when a 7’2″ guy is standing tall on the block, it seriously limits the interior options for opponents.

In addition to a player from Lebanon, Egypt, Iran, and Canada, the Owls also have German product Jarelle Reischel (No. 12), a freshman wing who finished his high school career in New Jersey. Reischel is averaging less than 12 minutes per game this season, limited mostly by his struggles to hang on to the ball. His individual turnover rate of 34.7% is by far the worst on the team.

The only other player averaging more than 10 minutes per game is 6’7″ freshman Seth Gearhart (No. 41). The Oregon native still needs to add some muscle to be effective in college, but has already shown good ball handling skills and the ability to slash from the wings. He’s also keeping defenders honest with his three-point threat, as he’s knocked down 46% of his long-range looks in his limited minutes.

Keys to the game

1) Earn second-chance points — The Longhorns have become one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country over the last few weeks, but they will be facing a tough test against a Rice team that is one of the best on the defensive glass. The Owls limited A&M to less than 30% of their offensive board opportunities in their upset victory at Reed Arena last week, so the Longhorns will have to do a better job if they want to avoid the same fate as the Aggies.

2) Knock down perimeter looks — Rice will give up their fair share of easy looks from beyond the arc, so the Longhorns will have to take advantage of that opportunity. The Owls were repeatedly confounded by a simple dribble handoff when they lost to Iowa State in South Padre, so Texas should be able to get J’Covan Brown, Julien Lewis, Sterling Gibbs, and Sheldon McClellan some open looks from long range.

3) Take care of the basketball — The Owls don’t force a ton of turnovers, but the same could have been said about North Carolina prior to their thorough whipping of the Longhorns last Wednesday. Texas allowed 21 Tar Heel points off of their 13 turnovers, many of them coming as a result of forcing plays that weren’t there. The Longhorns — particularly Myck Kabongo — need to use a smarter, more patient approach against Rice this afternoon, or else they will be giving away free points to a Rice team that is great in transition.

On April 6th, John Henson and Tyler Zeller announced their intentions to return and chase a national championship at North Carolina. It was just the first in a series of announcements by high-profile players, all surefire NBA picks, who were spurning the allure of the League for another year as Big Man on Campus.

Jared Sullinger of Ohio State and Perry Jones III of Baylor also elected to return to school, while Kentucky’s Terrence Jones withdrew his name after testing the waters. And then, just less than two weeks after Henson and Zeller made their joint announcement, Harrison Barnes made the Tar Heels the prohibitive preseason No. 1 when he passed on the NBA and returned to Chapel Hill.

Texas had their own trio of stars mulling their draft fate, but with the wave of big-name players returning elsewhere, Longhorn fans had reason to be optimistic. If Jordan Hamilton, Tristan Thompson, and Cory Joseph made the same three-man pact that Barnes, Zeller, and Henson had made, there was no doubt that tonight’s match-up between the two teams would be a titanic clash of teams in the Top 10.

It was not to be. Instead, the Longhorns enter tonight’s game at Chapel Hill with a young, rebuilding squad. Texas is unranked as they head into the Dean E. Smith Center, a place where the Tar Heels have knocked off the last 71 unranked non-conference opponents they’ve faced. Although the Longhorns have won the last four meetings between these two schools — a streak dating back to 1995 — the odds of that success continuing tonight are very, very slim.

By the numbers

The Tar Heels are an imposing bunch, not just in person, but also on paper. Their offense is seventh-best in the country when measured by adjusted efficiency, putting in 1.155 points each time down the floor. Lest opponents think they can simply get into a shootout with the Tar Heels, it must also be noted that the defense is nearly top-ten caliber, as well. The UNC defense is 11th-best in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing just 0.872 points per possession.

The Tar Heels love to get out and run, playing at an adjusted tempo that is currently third-fastest in the nation. UNC averages 74.5 possessions per game, and the team has played two games this season with more than 85 possessions. The Longhorns have proven that they will engage in a track meet against other up-tempo squads, so the points should come quickly and often in tonight’s contest.

Although North Carolina runs at a high pace, the team takes excellent care of the basketball. The Tar Heels are 14th in the country in turnover percentage, giving it up on just 16.7% of their possessions. In addition to valuing the ball, the Tar Heels also extend possessions with an offensive rebounding mark of 38.8%, a percentage that ranks in the top 30 of D-I hoops.

On defense, North Carolina’s imposing front line makes it incredibly difficult to score. Henson and Zeller block and alter numerous shots from the Tar Heel opponents, but most importantly they do it without fouling. UNC has the best defensive free-throw rate in the nation, allowing less than one free throw for every five opponent field goals.

The only one of Dean Oliver’s Four Factors that the Tar Heels don’t excel in is their defensive turnover percentage. North Carolina is one of the worst 100 teams in D-I hoops when it comes to forcing opponent miscues, a stat that makes their up-tempo success even more impressive. The Tar Heels simply run the floor better than their opponents, and are always looking to immediately move the ball up the court after both makes and misses.

Meet the Tar Heels

A big reason why that North Carolina transition game is so effective is lefty point guard Kendall Marshall (No. 5). When Texas faced the Heels in Greensboro last December, North Carolina still had Larry Drew at the point. Following his sudden departure for UCLA, Coach Roy Williams was forced to up Marshall’s minutes, and the Tar Heels immediately improved, starting a run that would end in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament.

Marshall is averaging more than 10 assists per game and is the catalyst for an offense fueled by future NBA talent. While he often dishes dimes that are eye-popping, he typically just makes the smart, simple pass while putting the ball right in the shooting pocket of his teammates. He also has an incredible ability to make the lengthy pass up-court in transition, a skill that comes in handy with a teammate like Zeller who runs the floor so well.

Marshall also seems to have prescient court vision, making passes that look like hockey one-timers. It is not uncommon to see him make passes where it is clear that he already had a target picked out before he even had the ball passed into his own hands. It’s also worth noting that while Marshall is not much of a threat to shoot jumpers, he will still drive the lane if presented with the opportunity.

Joining Marshall in the backcourt is junior guard Dexter Strickland (No. 1), who has become the team’s lockdown perimeter defender. He is tied for the team lead with 14 steals, but his biggest contribution comes in making an opposing guard’s stat line look ugly. Look for Strickland to be tasked with shutting down J’Covan Brown tonight, who leads the Longhorns with more than 19 points per game.

While Strickland has made a name for himself defensively, he’s still a threat on the offensive end. He is a quality slashing guard who can get to the rim or stop on a dime to knock down a pull-up J. His smart shot selection has given him a team-leading 57.6% field goal mark, and he’s averaging more than eight points per game.

If opponents can manage to get past Strickland, there’s even more defensive talent waiting in the frontcourt. John Henson (No. 31) — a former player at Round Rock High just outside of Austin — averages just over 3.4 blocks per game. His 7’4″ wingspan makes him a threat to block practically every shot that is taken in or near the paint, and as Luke Winn showed in an early-season Power Rankings column, he can quickly cover long distances to do so. He’s also a handful on inbounds plays from the baseline, as his height and wingspan take away any inside scoring plays and essentially force opponents to settle for a long lob to a backpedaling guard.

Henson also worked on his midrange game in the summer, and while he still has some issues with the baseline jumper, there’s no question he has improved. When he’s clicking and knocking down those 15-footers, North Carolina becomes even more dangerous.

Joining Henson inside is 7-footer Tyler Zeller (No. 44), a quality big man who has had his college career dogged by injuries during his first three years. As mentioned above, he runs the floor really well, which leads to a lot of easy buckets when Marshall finds him in transition. Even when those fast break points don’t materialize, the hustle allows Zeller to establish early post position, and his point guard usually finds him for the easy look. Once he gets the ball in the paint, Zeller’s array of post moves make him practically impossible to stop, a fact opposing fans quickly learn when he drills his first jump hook.

Defensively, Zeller’s height is difficult to game plan for. He stands tall and moves well laterally, so opposing players who can’t get position on him prior to the entry pass stand little chance of scoring. Of course, even when he is out of position, the excellent help D from Henson still makes it tough for opponents to score inside. Zeller is also extremely talented at picking up charging fouls, so Brown and Myck Kabongo will have to be careful when they attack the lane tonight.

Even with all that talent we’ve already covered, the Tar Heels still have a bigger star in the starting five. Harrison Barnes (No. 40) is an all-around stud, and he currently leads the team with 16.1 points per game and a 48.5% success rate from behind the arc. If there were a stat to track jumpers from just inside the arc, he’d likely be one of the national leaders in that category, too. Barnes is especially skilled at taking the ball on the perimeter, making one strong dribble towards the hoop, and then drilling a pull-up jumper.

Barnes has always been a quality jump shooter, but he worked on his handles and strength this summer, and is now able to slash to the rim with even more success. For a numerical perspective on that improvement, consider his free-throw rates. As a freshman, Barnes posted an FTR of 24.9%, or roughly one free throw earned for every four field goals attempted. This season, his FTR has climbed to 38.9%, or roughly two free throws for every five field goal attempts. He’s putting the ball on the floor more often this year, and earning more trips to the line as a result.

With a starting five that talented, the Tar Heels really only have to go three deep off the bench. Of course, since we’re talking about North Carolina, those bench players would likely be starters at most other schools.

Reggie Bullock (No. 35) is a three-point marksman who is fourth on the team with 9.2 points per game despite averaging less than 18 minutes. He is very quick on the catch-and-shoot, so the Longhorns can’t afford to lose him for even a moment on defense, especially with a point guard like Marshall who can find him immediately.

Freshman forward James Michael McAdoo (No. 43) is already built like an upperclassman, and he is making an impact off the bench. Averaging just 14 minutes per game, McAdoo still grabs about four rebounds per game and chips in roughly six points.

Fellow freshman P.J. Hairston (No. 15) is a shooting guard in a small forward’s body, checking in at 6’6″ and 220 pounds. He is a threat to shoot from outside, as he proved in the two-game Las Vegas Invitational at the end of November. Against South Carolina and UNLV, Hairston went 8-for-13 from long range and scored 34 total points. He’s now averaging 8.3 per game, but has seen his three-point percentage come back down to Earth, where it now sits at a still-impressive 38.8%.

Senior Justin Watts (No. 24) has also made an appearance in every game this season, but is averaging less than six minutes per game. He’s a high-energy player who provides a few minutes of good defense and work on the glass.

Keys to the game

For a young Longhorn team that has six freshmen on the roster, tonight’s game will be a completely new experience. Although they earned a road win against UCLA, the L.A. Sports Arena was nearly empty and there was little energy in the building. Tonight, the Dean Dome will be packed full with more than 21,000 fans who want nothing more than merciless revenge for the pair of Texas victories over UNC in the last two years. While the Tar Heels have proven to be fallible in losses to UNLV and Kentucky, Texas will have to play a nearly flawless game to escape Chapel Hill with a win tonight.

1) Clean the offensive glass – The Longhorns have steadily improved in this department all season, although one has to wonder how much their stats have been augmented by a weak string of opponents. Texas is ranked 13th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, reclaiming 40.4% of their missed shots.

While the Tar Heels are equally good on the defensive glass, they have had some issues giving up the offensive boards and second-chance points. Michigan State grabbed nearly 46% of their missed shots in the Carrier Classic, while the Kentucky Wildcats reclaimed more than 41% of their misses in Lexington at the beginning of the month. It’s obvious Alexis Wangmene, Clint Chapman, and Jaylen Bond aren’t on the same level as Derrick Nix, Draymond Green, or Anthony Davis, but the Longhorns can really help their chances by extending possessions with offensive boards.

2) Get back on defense – Combine this key to the game with the previous one, and you will quickly see the strategic difficulties inherent in facing this North Carolina squad. If your team crashes the offensive glass, it only serves to help the already-potent Tar Heel transition game. Sell out to stop transition defense by leaving just one or two offensive rebounders, and you’ll likely have a lot of one-shot possessions. While it’s practically impossible for Texas to completely shut down the transition game and still earn any offensive boards, the Longhorns will have to limit the damage on the break and secondary break.

3) Knock down the three-pointers – The Longhorns have been especially cold from long range in recent games, so fans can only hope that it means they are due for a great performance tonight. Texas made just 2-of-17 from long range in Saturday’s win over Temple, and the team has hit only 20.5% of their three-point attempts in the last two games.

North Carolina, meanwhile, has had some difficulties defending the perimeter. In their loss to UNLV, the Runnin’ Rebels were able to knock down 13 three-pointers. UNLV found the most success on the drive-and-kick, but also were able to get open looks when the Tar Heels doubled the ballhandler on perimeter screens and fell victim to a simple throwback to the screener.

Kabongo has really improved over the last few weeks, logging quite a few assists each night courtesy of the drive-and-kick. He’ll likely find many opportunities to do that against UNC tonight, so the Longhorn shooters have to take advantage of those open looks if they hope to pull off a monumental upset.

Although Selection Sunday is still three months away, the Longhorns could be putting their tournament hopes on the line this afternoon. In the latest projection from ESPN’s resident bracketologist, Joe Lundardi, Texas was one of the first four teams out of the field, a result of a weak non-conference schedule that included a pair of losses against the only two quality teams on it.

Today, Texas kicks off the truly challenging part of its schedule, hosting Temple before heading to North Carolina and then opening conference play a week later. If the Longhorns are going to make the Big Dance this season, they will have to win their home games against other tournament teams like Temple.

By the Numbers

The Owls aren’t a flashy, exciting bunch, but they are well-coached and well-disciplined. In past seasons under Fran Dunphy, Temple has checked in as part of the bottom third in D-I hoops when it comes to tempo. This season, they’ve sped it up a little, but still only average 67 possessions per game, just off the national average of 67.3 possessions.

On offense, Temple is one of the most efficient teams in the land. They score 1.103 points per possession, the 25th-best mark in the country. The Owls do this by being patient and taking smart shots, which has led to a 52.5% effective field goal mark. That methodical approach also helps to protect the ball, as the Owls turn it over on less than 20% of their possessions.

Defensively, Temple likes to sit back in a man defense reminiscent of the pack-line defense. While there is less pressure on perimeter ballhandlers, the Owls certainly sag off on D, daring opponents to shoot. So far, it’s been very successful this season, with Temple opponents having an effective field goal percentage of 47.1%, below the national average. The Owls have been hurt by a late-November injury to big man Micheal Eric (No. 50), so in recent games, opponents have been able to find more success once they get the ball inside.

Meet the Owls

Without Eric and with senior Scootie Randall (No. 33) working his way back from a torn meniscus, the Temple rotation is very thin. They are essentially running a seven-man rotation, with only one player — 6’9″ redshirt freshman Anthony Lee (No. 3) — checking in over 6-feet, 6-inches.

Although the Owls have lost a lot of size without Eric, they still have a very tall, experienced backcourt. The steady ballhandler is 6’4″ Juan Fernandez (No. 4), a senior from Argentina who is averaging 12.5 points and 4.1 assists per game.

Fernandez uses his size to his advantage, often working smaller guards down the lane before hitting a running floater or a turnaround jumper off the blocks. He’s also just dangerous enough from the outside to keep defenses honest, knocking down 36% of his long-range attempts so far this season. Fernandez looks best from outside when catching the ball in rhythm and stepping into the shot, and he particularly likes to pop it from the right wing.

Joining Fernandez in the backcourt is the team’s leading scorer, senior Ramone Moore (No. 10). Moore is a slippery guard who can create his own shot on the dribble. He’s smooth with the ball cutting through traffic, but he seems most comfortable driving and curling to his left. Moore’s averaging more than 18 points per game and actually has more than four rebounds per game.

The third member of the guard troika is junior Khalif Wyatt (No. 1), the three-point marksman. Although he’s only made 35.5% of his shots behind the arc this season, he has range well past the NBA line and made more than 42% of his threes as a sophomore. He’s also an adept ballhandler, and can take over at the point when Fernandez needs a breather or is in foul trouble.

On the wing, junior Rahlir Hollis-Jefferson (No. 32) is a great rebounder and shot blocker. He also added a mindrange jumper to the repertoire this offseason, and it’s keeping defenses more honest. While Hollis-Jefferson isn’t always knocking that shot down from the opening tip, he’s more than willing to take it.

With Eric out of the lineup, redshirt freshman Lee has been thrust into the starting five. He sat out last season with a herniated disk in his back, but had a great summer and is averaging nearly seven boards per game to go with five points. He’s not yet a post-up player, but he’s athletic and very active inside, so he cleans up the garbage and makes those all-important hustle plays.

Off the bench, sophomore guard Aaron Brown (No. 22) is playing roughly 14 minutes per game after starting the last nine games of his freshman campaign due to Randall’s injury issues. He has been the team’s most-consistent outside shooter so far, knocking down nearly 46% of his threes. On a team that can often go cold from outside, that kind of success rate truly stands out.

The final healthy member of the Temple rotation is 6’3″ T.J. DiLeo (No. 11). While he doesn’t stuff the stat sheet, DiLeo is a very scrappy player on defense, and is often found on the floor in the scramble for loose balls. He’s actually very quick with the dribble, but typically passes it off when he approaches the lane. On the season, DiLeo has attempted only 17 shots despite appearing in every game and averaging nearly 20 minutes.

Keys to the Game

1) Knock down shots – This would seem to be a fairly simple instruction, one that would be key to winning just about any basketball game. Make your shots, win the game. But against Temple, it’s even more important that Texas drill the looks they are given. The Owls are going to sit back on defense and force the Longhorns to take jumpers. If Texas can’t even do that, Temple has no reason to adjust their D. But if the Longhorns can prove they will hit jump shots, the Owls have to play a little tighter, the Texas guards can do more on dribble penetration, and the entire offense opens up.

2) Do work on the glass – Without Eric in the lineup, the Owls are similar in size to many of the low-major teams that Texas has faced in recent weeks. Texas can overcome that staunch Temple defense by grabbing offense boards and giving themselves easier second-chance looks inside, while they can stifle that smart, patient Temple offense by dominating on the defensive glass as well. Against a team that skews towards the slower pace of play, the handful of extra shots created or prevented by rebounding can be the difference in the game.

3) Score in transition – The best way to beat a sound defense is to never let it set up in the half court. While Texas doesn’t need to try to turn this into a track meet, the Horns do need to be looking up after Temple misses and trying to score easy points. Even in situations where the fast break isn’t there, pushing the tempo could allow things to open up in the secondary break, especially with the three-point shooters that the Longhorns have on the roster.

The Longhorns wrap up the cupcake portion of their non-conference schedule tonight, hosting the Nicholls State Colonels in what amounts to a glorified exhibition at the Frank Erwin Center. Tempo-free stat maven Ken Pomeroy has the Colonels ranked as the 21st-worst team in the country, even after they picked up their second Division I victory last night against Louisiana-Monroe.

The Longhorns have made vast improvements on the defensive side of the ball since their two losses in East Rutherford, holding their last five opponents to an effective field goal mark of just 37.4%. Of course, it should be noted that those five opponents currently have a combined record of just 20-23, with 10 of their wins coming against teams not in Division I. No matter how good Texas looks tonight against Nicholls State, fans must temper expectations, as the first true test of the team’s progress will come against Temple on Saturday.

By the numbers

Having lost leading scorer Anatoly Bose to graduation and the National Basketball League of his native Australia, the Colonels are working with four freshman, two transfers, and just one senior. Understandably, the Colonels were picked to finish dead last in the East Division of the Southland Conference by the league’s coaches.

As predicted, the on-court product has been quite sub-par so far this year. Nicholls State is averaging a per-possession point differential of -0.187, a discouraging number that is fueled by a terrible defense. The Colonels are the sixth-worst defense in the country according to Pomeroy, giving up 1.125 points per possession, thanks in large part to the 55% effective field goal percentage they are allowing opponents.

As it was on Saturday night against Texas State, tonight’s match-up on the glass is perfect for the Longhorns. Nicholls State is one of the ten worst offensive rebounding teams in the country, while Texas has struggled to stop opponents in that department for much of the season. Recently, the Longhorns have shown improvement, but again it is important to remember our earlier point regarding the level of competition over the last few games. Against this small, poor-rebounding team, the Longhorns should put up some video-game type numbers.

It is also worth noting that the Colonels have had some issues with ball control during their first nine games. The team’s turnover mark is a troubling 22.9%, a number that puts them in the bottom third of D-I teams. While Rick Barnes has never built the Texas offense on turnovers and transition, it’s still likely that the Horns will enjoy some fast break points courtesy of Nicholls State errors.

Meet the Colonels

As we mentioned, Nicholls State is truly in the midst of a rebuilding year. With Bose gone, 6’5″ senior Fred Hunter was supposed to carry the scoring load. Unfortunately, a knee injury from last year took longer than anticipated to heal, and Hunter elected to redshirt this season in the hopes of having a stronger senior campaign in 2012-13 with a more experienced squad.

The Colonels have a core rotation of nine players, but could go deeper down the bench against Texas, as they just played last night against Louisiana-Monroe. Injuries have forced Coach J.P. Piper to be very flexible with his lineups, meaning that eight different players have seen the starting five so far this season.

The lone senior is Ben Martin (No. 4), a guard who averaged less than five points per game last season. Like Hunter, Martin has been dealing with his own injuries, having been limited to just four games so far this season thanks to back problems. The guard hasn’t improved his scoring mark this season, averaging just four points per game, but has upped the shooting percentage. After knocking down less than 32% of his shots last year, Martin has made 45.5% of them in his four games.

The other key player to be hobbled by injuries this season is 6’2″ guard Dantrell Thomas (No. 1), who has been sidelined by a deep calf bruise. After missing two games due to the injury, Thomas made a surprise appearance off the bench last night, scoring nine points in the final minutes to carry the team to victory. During the preseason, Coach Piper hoped that Thomas would be the one to make up for Bose’s departing points, but so far he is averaging just over eight per game.

The player who has carried the team so far is 6’5″ freshman Trevon Lewis (No. 23). Averaging more than 14 points per game, Lewis made a splash in his collegiate debut, leading the team with 19 points against LSU in the season opener. The freshman is also grabbing more than five boards per game, making him the leading rebounder on a team that has no players over 6’7″. Lewis is an athletic guy who has the ability to defend all positions, but will find that a difficult task against a much bigger Texas lineup tonight.

Joining Lewis on the wing is 6’6″ sophomore Chris Talkington (No. 11), who is second on the team in scoring with a 12.7 average. He’s been the team’s best three-point shooter so far, knocking down 43.8% of his 48 attempts. Lest fans think Talkington is simply a long-range specialist, he’s also been attacking the rim to the tune of a 46.4% mark inside the arc, while earning 30 trips to the line.

The other three-point threat for Nicholls State is 6’7″ freshman Lachland Prest (No. 2), one of three Australians on the team roster. Prest is one of the two tallest players on the Colonel roster, but his 41.9% success rate behind the arc is key to stretching out defenses. For Coach Piper’s five-out, motion-based offense, having bigs with a good jumper is critical.

That type of offense doesn’t really call for a true point guard, but 6’2″ freshman Shane Rillieux (No. 21) is one of two guards who essentially fill that role. His 20 assists are second on the team, but the freshman has also coughed it up 21 times so far this season. He’s a good perimeter defender that is also rebounding very well in his freshman campaign, as he’s currently second on the team with 4.4 boards per game.

The other guard facilitating the offense is sophomore Bryan Hammond (No. 3), who has a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. His 8.6 points per game are third on the team, despite being relegated to the sixth-man role after Martin’s return.

Another player giving quality minutes off the bench is Sam McBeath (No. 15), the other “big man” for the Colonels at 6-feet, 7-inches. The Australian product is much more experienced than his fellow freshmen, as he’s currently 21 years old and has spent the last two years trying to gain NCAA eligibility. McBeath is averaging 7.7 points and 3.9 rebounds in his seven appearances.

The final player in the rotation is Jeremy Smith (No. 34), a 6’3″ sophomore guard who actually took a redshirt season after his freshman year. He plays considerably less minutes than the eight men ahead of him in the rotation, as he sees the court for just over 14 minutes per game. Smith has made an appearance in every contest, though, and averages nearly five points in his limited role.

Keys to the blowout

There’s absolutely no reason why the Longhorns should lose tonight, so for this game we have made a slight name change to this section of the preview.

1) Control the defensive glass – With nobody over 6’7″ on the opposing bench, the Longhorns should have no problems rebounding the basketball tonight. The Nicholls State offense is already rather pedestrian, so limiting the Colonels to one-shot possessions by grabbing the defensive boards will absolutely cripple their scoring chances.

2) Play sound team defense – The motion-based offense that Nicholls State uses will make it necessary for the Longhorns to communicate very well on D. If the Longhorns don’t, there will be quite a few plays where they simply lose a man on defense and give up an easy layup or wide-open jumper. While Nicholls State is not a powerhouse by any stretch of the imagination, playing against this type of scheme will be a good experience for the young Longhorn defense.

3) Attack the paint – Recently Texas has found great success by setting up their big men in position to score, whether it’s from good entries in the high-low game or from good drive-and-dish work by Myck Kabongo and J’Covan Brown. The Longhorns have a huge size advantage in this game, so there’s no reason why they shouldn’t consistently feed Alexis Wangmene, Clint Chapman, and Jonathan Holmes and pad their stats.