The Texas Longhorns survived a scare on Friday to advance past Oakland in the second round of the NCAA tournament, but things won’t be any easier today. Their third-round match-up is a tough Arizona Wildcat team that won the Pac 10 regular-season title and lost in overtime in the championship of the post-season tournament.

A win would put the Longhorns through to the Sweet 16, a place they have been only once since 2005. In the first half of the decade, Texas was in elite company with Duke, West Virginia, and Pitt as the most frequent guests of the NCAA’s second weekend, but that now seems like a distant memory. The Longhorns will have to beat a formidable opponent this evening if they want to once again join that prestigious club.

By the numbers

Arizona has a highly efficient offense and a sound defense. The Wildcats are aggressive with the basketball, always looking to get to the rim. Their offense has constant movement, both off the ball and with the ball. As a result, Arizona is scoring 1.154 adjusted points per possession, making them 15th-best nationally in that metric.

Every starter can drive from the perimeter, so Arizona typically sets up with four players on the perimeter and one playing the high or low post. This great floor spacing gives extra room for their slashing guards and wings to attack the paint and get layups. If the post defender helps, the Wildcats have a wide open big man waiting for the dump-off. If perimeter defense collapses down to help, the Wildcats have a bevy of three-point shooters waiting to knock down the open look.

The one drawback to Arizona’s floor spacing is that they have a hard time grabbing offensive rebounds. With most of their players far from the rim, the Wildcats are only grabbing 32.9% of their misses, a number that is just slightly above the national average. If Texas can use their size to limit Arizona to even fewer offensive boards this evening, it could seriously cripple Arizona’s offense.

The Wildcats were the best three-point shooting team in Pac 10 play, and are the 11th most-deadly team behind the arc in Division I basketball. Arizona has made 39.6% of its long-range looks, and they take nearly 37% of their shots from behind the arc. As a team, the Wildcats average nearly 20 long-range attempts per game.

Defensively, Arizona doesn’t let teams have nearly as much success from beyond the arc. The Wildcats allow opponents to shoot just 29.1% from long range, good enough for 4th place in the national rankings. Texas is actually just percentage points better, allowing a 28.7% success rate.

The weakness for Arizona is interior defense. They allow teams to make more than 50% of their shots from inside the arc, and hardly ever block shots or steal the ball. They also rarely force opponent miscues, as their defensive turnover rate is only 18.9%, ranking them 254th out of 345 D-I schools.

Meet the Wildcats

Arizona is led by sophomore Derrick Williams, an all-around athlete that was named Pac 10 Player of the Year and is one of the 30 players on the Naismith Award midseason list. (Jordan Hamilton is also part of that revered group.) Last year, he was the Pac 10’s top freshman and led the team in both scoring and rebounding.

At 6’8″, Williams is a handful to contain. He’s averaging 19.2 points and 8.2 rebounds per game, and his points come in a variety of ways. Although he only attempts about two three-pointers per game, Williams has an insane 61% success rate behind the arc.

That long-range threat helps Williams when he’s matched up with big, lumbering defensive players. He can draw them out to the perimeter and easily take them off the dribble for buckets. In an early-season game against Kansas and the Morris twins, Williams scored 27 by slashing from the perimeter and getting points in the paint.

Against smaller defenders, the Wildcats love to isolate him in the post as a part of their four-out, one-in look, and Williams will take full advantage of the situation. When stationed at the high post, he can knock down the jumper or use his great handles to shake defenders and get an easy two.

In the backcourt, another sophomore keeps the Wildcat offense churning. Lamont “MoMo” Jones is the team’s point guard, but he’s much more scorer than simple assist man. Jones is a supremely confident, shifty guard who is second on the team with 9.8 points per game.

MoMo has a really quick release, so he doesn’t need any space to get off a shot. He’ll take a couple of rapid-fire threes in front of surprised defenders, and on the year he’s made 32.1% of his attempts. When Jones drives the lane, he’s incredibly elusive and manages to constantly finish ridiculous shots that often should be blocked.

Joining Jones in the backcourt is junior Kyle Fogg, who has been playing with a pulled quad the last two weeks. The injury limited him to just 13 minutes per game in the Pac 10 tournament, but he saw the floor for 23 minutes in the NCAA win over Memphis. The injury was just another setback for Fogg, who has had a serious run of bad luck in Tucson. Last year, he suffered a knee injury and even contracted H1N1 early in the season.

Fogg is not a guy who is going to score many points in most games, but when he does get hot — look out. Against Arizona State he made seven of 13 from beyond the arc, scoring 26 points to lead the ‘Cats to victory over their in-state rivals. He knocked down four three-pointers in four other conference games, and sunk three of them in four others. On the year, Fogg has knocked down 34.8% of his three-point attempts.

Sophomore Solomon Hill is a prototypical small forward who has started all 35 games this season, and he is averaging 7.8 points in 24.9 minutes per contest. Like most of the Wildcats, Hill is a strong 6’6″ guy who also has the ballhandling skills to slash from the wings and cause havoc inside. He’s also the team’s second-leading rebounder with 4.5 boards per game.

Junior Jesse Perry is another slashing wing for Coach Sean Miller, and he arrived in Tucson after transferring from a junior college in Saint Louis. At 6’7″, Perry gives the ‘Cats another long, athletic body that can play both inside and out, but his favorite shot is the mid-range jumper on the baseline. Like Hill, Perry provides some extra rebounding punch to help out Williams.

The sole senior on the roster is Jamelle Horne, who started 13 games for the Wildcats this season, but has settled into a role as the team’s sixth man. He is another big-time threat from long range, where he’s knocked down 40.6% of his attempts on the year. Despite playing just 18.5 minutes per game, Horne is second on the team in three-point attempts behind Fogg.

Also coming off the bench is Kevin Parrom, a 6’6″ sophomore who mirrors the rest of the Arizona roster with his ability to shoot from outside or create with the dribble-drive. He is 41.4% from behind the arc this season, but only averages 2.5 attempts per game.

Jordin Mayes is another long-range shooter on the Arizona bench, and he’s coming into this one with a hot hand. In his last three games, Mayes is 5-for-6 from behind the arc. If the Longhorns pay too much attention to Williams or overhelp on the drives from the wings, Mayes will definitely make them pay on kickouts.

While Sean Miller’s bench runs 10 deep, he has been cutting back on the minutes for Brendon Lavender and Kyryl Natyazhko in post-season play. Lavender is a catch-and-shoot guy who is averaging just seven minutes per game in the post-season.

Natyazhko is a 6’11” Ukranian who gives the ‘Cats some extra size inside, and he’s always working hard to set screens when he’s on the floor. Unfortunately, he is only averaging six minutes in four post-season games for Arizona.

Keys to the game

Just as it was against Oakland, the primary concern for Texas will be keeping Tristan Thompson and Jordan Hamilton out of foul trouble. Williams is the most-fouled player in the Pac 10, and his 88.9% free-throw rate is ninth in all of D-I basketball. He also draws nearly eight fouls per contest, so Texas will have to spread out the whistles to keep their starters in the game.

Defending Williams will be a challenge for Texas. Thompson cannot defend him on the perimeter and would often be beaten on Williams’ slashing attacks. Jordan Hamilton, meanwhile, is a perfect match-up in size and athleticism, but has had his share of defensive lapses this season. Gary Johnson gives up a few inches, but is athletic enough to stick with Williams on the dribble-drive. Of course, if Johnson is tasked with Williams, you can be sure Arizona will isolate him in the post.

While Arizona is a strong three-point shooting team, they have hit the skids recently. In the Pac 10 championship game, Arizona made just 33.3% of their shots from behind the arc, and ultimately lost to Washington in overtime. In their second round NCAA game against Memphis, the ‘Cats made just 26.3% from long range and struggled to knock off the Tigers. If Texas can contain Arizona’s three-point threat, the Wildcat offense becomes much less potent.

Although Texas isn’t a team that turns you over that often, the Longhorns will want to pressure the Arizona guards. This will help with the perimeter defense, and also can lead to some costly Wildcat turnovers. This young Arizona team has had seven different games with turnover rates north of 23%, so the Longhorns should be able to force mistakes. Late in games this season, the Wildcat guards have also had fits with full-court presses, particularly traps in the backcourt.

On offense, Texas needs to attack inside. We’ve already discussed the statistical gulf between Arizona’s perimeter and interior defense, but the Memphis game showed just how successful the Longhorns can be. The Tigers constantly drove baseline and found open layups or easy interior passes against the Arizona defense. For Hamilton and J’Covan Brown, that weakness on the baseline is excellent news.

Finally, Texas cannot dig a hole. The Wildcats are 26-2 this season when leading at halftime, and a big part of that is their success at the line. Arizona has made 75% of their free throws this year, while the Longhorns have stumbled to a 65% mark. If this is a close game in the final minutes, the edge would have to go to Arizona. The Longhorns need to be in control when the game comes down to the wire, or it could spell the end of their season.

March has been a tough month for the Texas Longhorns in recent years. In the first half of the decade, Texas was one of the nation’s best performers in the NCAA tournament. From 2002 to 2006, the Longhorns made the Sweet 16 four different times, played in one Elite Eight, and even landed in the Final Four in 2003.

But since then, Texas has had difficulties advancing past the first weekend. Although the Longhorns advanced to the Elite Eight as a No. 2 seed in 2008, they lost in the second round in both 2007 and 2009, and were knocked out at the overtime buzzer in the first round by Wake Forest last season.

Throw in the epic collapse by last year’s Texas team, and there’s been a lot of national attention on Texas this March. Yahoo’s Jason King claimed that Rick Barnes is the coach with the most pressure in this NCAA tournament, and he may be right. But even more than historical trends and cute storylines, the true source of pressure comes in the form of a very tough opening match-up for the Longhorns.

Predicted by many to be a No. 2 seed in this year’s field, Texas inexplicably showed up on the 4-seed line when the brackets were revealed. As an added bonus, the Longhorns were paired with the Summit League champion Oakland, a very scary squad that could easily pull off the upset.

By the numbers

The Grizzlies are an up-tempo team that can score the ball in a hurry. Oakland averages 72.9 possessions per game, which is the 7th-fastest pace in D-I basketball and a full six possessions per game faster than the Longhorns.

Oakland has a team full of quick, athletic players that can score, and as a result, have a solid offensive efficiency mark of 1.159 points per possession. Their effective field goal percentage — a statistic that takes into account the greater value of a three-point shot — is third-best in the nation at 56.1%.

All of the Golden Grizzlies have excellent handles, and it allows them to run tons of curls from the perimeter following ball screens. They also move really well without the basketball, leading to tons of open looks at the rim when defenses lose their men on the backcuts. Add in one of the nation’s premier big men, and it’s easy to see why Oakland’s offensive numbers are so potent.

The Golden Grizzlies want to turn today’s game into a track meet because they simply cannot defend. They allow more than 1.03 adjusted points per possession, ranking them 200th in the country. Oakland doesn’t guard the perimeter, where opponents are shooting more than 36%, and the Grizzlies simply don’t force turnovers.

Meet the Golden Grizzlies

The player you’ve heard about all week is big man Keith Benson. At 6’11”, he’s much more athletic and sleek than other players his size. Benson leads Oakland with 18 points and 10.1 rebounds per game, and is guaranteed to be a first-round draft pick if the NBA doesn’t follow the same path as the NFL this summer.

Benson is tough to defend because he’s much more mobile than other big men. He can knock down the jump shot, even out to the three point line, where he is 9-for-22 on the season. Inside, his length makes it practically impossible to block his shot, and he has a solid left-handed hook.

Benson isn’t just the scoring machine inside for Oakland, though. He was the Summit League’s Defensive Player of the Year, and is leading his team with 3.6 blocked shots per game.

In the backcourt, Reggie Hamilton gets the Oakland offense going. A junior, Hamilton transferred from UMKC and has made an immediate impact for Coach Greg Kampe. He can drive the lane with either hand, and has such a quick first step that he can easily get to the rim or stick a quick pull-up jumper that leaves defenders stumbling backwards.

The speedy Hamilton is also the facilitator in the Oakland offense. When he’s dissecting defenses with his dribble-drive, the junior always has his head up, looking for passing lanes that open up as the defense reacts. As a result, Hamilton averages more than 5.3 assists per game.

Joining Hamilton in the backcourt is freshman sharpshooter Travis Bader. The 6’4″ Michigan product is averaging more than 10 points per game, in large part thanks to his ridiculous three-point shot. Bader has made 45.8% of his long-range attempts this season, and is second on the team with 201 attempts.

At the three, slasher Drew Valentine is averaging 7.9 points per game. He is a steady ball-handler who can finish through traffic thanks to his strength, and he is constantly active on the glass. Valentine averages 5.6 rebounds per game for Oakland.

Another excellent rebounder for the Grizzlies is senior forward Will Hudson. Even though Hudson is often at the free-throw line when Oakland runs their high-low game with Benson, he is still second on the team with 7.1 rebounds per game, and is 44th in the nation with an offensive rebounding mark of 14.1%.

Guard Larry Wright was the Summit League’s Sixth Man of the Year, averaging 9.8 points per game. He is yet another long-range weapon for Coach Kampe, drilling 35.8% of his attempts from behind the arc.

Another guard off the bench is tiny freshman Ryan Bass. He only averaged 9.5 minutes per game this season, but saw his average climb to 11.3 minutes in conference play. Like Hamilton, Bass is a speedster, but hasn’t been able to handle defensive pressure as well as the starter. When Hamilton needed a breather in the Summit League Championship, Oral Roberts broke out a full-court press against Bass and caused major issues.

The only other player to see significant minutes in Oakland’s eight-man core rotation is guard Ledrick Eackles. Like Bass, he averaged just over 11 minutes per game in Summit League play, and averaged nearly four points per game. The son of former NBA player Ladell Eackles, Ledrick has yet to make a huge impact on the Oakland program.

Keys to the game

As Texas fans saw all too clearly last Saturday, the number one thing the Longhorns must do is keep Tristan Thompson out of foul trouble. Benson is an exceptional post player that is going to give Thompson a real challenge in the paint. Texas needs Tristan’s scoring punch and offensive rebounding skills to keep the offense clicking, so he simply cannot afford to pick up cheap fouls guarding the 6’11” Benson.

On defense, Texas must stop Oakland’s transition game. The Golden Grizzlies score a ton of points on the fast break, but score even more on the secondary break. The Longhorns need to get down the court in a hurry and force Oakland into playing a half-court game.

The Grizzlies haven’t faced a defense as good as Texas’ since they played Ohio State back in December. In that one, the Buckeyes held Oakland to just 0.862 points per possession. If Texas can keep the Grizzlies from getting a lot of easy points on the fast break and secondary break, they can have the same kind of defensive success.

If Texas is able to do that, they then must also limit damage from the perimeter. While Benson is an outstanding player, he will not beat the Longhorns on his own. If Texas can shut down the transition game and prevent Oakland from knocking down threes, there is no way Oakland can win the game solely on Benson’s talent.

One of the biggest reasons that teams get upset in NCAA play is hot three-point shooting from low-seeded opponents. With five different Grizzlies posting three-point percentages of greater than 35%, Texas has to make sure it doesn’t fall prey to that this morning.

Before the newspaper ink was even dry on January 23rd, people were already taking about March 12th. Jayhawk fans, still stinging from a shocking home loss to Texas the night before, were eager for a rematch in the conference tournament.

That rematch seemed all but destined, as the teams continued their march through conference play, with the Longhorns sprinting out to an 11-0 start and the Jayhawks staying just a game behind them. Texas stumbled on the road in the final weeks of the season, opening the door for Kansas to claim a seventh-straight league title and raising questions about the Longhorns’ moxie.

A win in Waco to close out the regular season was a step in the right direction for Texas, and they built upon that with solid tournament victories over Oklahoma and A&M to set up the long-awaited championship re-match. Beating the Bears, Sooners, and Aggies definitely bolsters fan confidence, but this game with Kansas gives Texas a chance to prove that their earlier win was no fluke, and that this year’s team won’t be collapsing in March.

Then there’s the big picture. When the weekend started, Texas was fourth in line for the final two 1-seeds in the NCAA tournament. Pitt, Notre Dame, and Duke all had stronger résumés, and adding to those with victories in the conference tournament would only solidify their elite status. Longhorn wins over the mediocre middle of the league wouldn’t do much to help their profile, so a 2-seed was practically assured.

Then the Big East Tournament mixed things up. Pitt lost in its first game, falling victim to Kemba Walker and his heroics. Notre Dame looked impressive in thumping Cincinnati, but stumbled in overtime against Louisville last night. Throw in the toe troubles for Duke’s Nolan Smith, and suddenly Texas is back in the conversation.

Of course, that all becomes irrelevant if the Longhorns can’t top the Jayhawks for a second time.

Meet the Jayhawks

If you aren’t already familiar with the Kansas roster or style of play, we invite you to re-visit our in-depth game preview from the first meeting in Lawrence.

The first meeting

Kansas jumped out to an early lead in Lawrence, riding the hot hand of Tyrel Reed to a 12-2 lead at the first media timeout. The Longhorns had not even scored their first bucket until three minutes had elapsed, and it looked like another KU rout was in progress.

The Longhorn defense quickly stiffened, though, limiting dribble penetration from the Jayhawk guards and turning them into a one-dimensional team. Kansas settled for a simple high-low game with Thomas Robinson and Marcus and Markieff Morris constantly being fed inside. The three big men combined for 28 points, but did it at inefficient rate. Marcus was 6-of-17 from the field, while Markieff managed to sink just two of seven attempts.

Texas was able to keep the Jayhawks within striking distance, heading to the locker room trailing by just 12 points. Coach Rick Barnes then broke out his magic sharpshooter sauce, and gave a healthy dose to the entire team. The Longhorns shot an incredible 63.6% from the field in the second half — including 4-of-6 from behind the arc — and dropped 51 more points on Kansas.

With J’Covan Brown playing like a man possessed and Cory Joseph banking in three-pointers, it seemed like there was no way to stop Texas. But in the face of those long odds, Kansas displayed the poise of a champion down the stretch. Trailing by 12 with 3:45 to play, the Jayhawks sliced the lead to five with just over 90 seconds to go. Responding to the challenge, Gary Johnson drilled a clutch jumper from the baseline on the next possession to stop the rally and clinch the win for Texas.

Since then…

The Jayhawks had a close call in their next game at Colorado, but looked practically unstoppable after that. Kansas won nine of their next ten games, all by double digits, with six of those wins coming by more than 20 points. If not for an uncharacteristically poor game in Manhattan, the Jayhawks would have finished the conference season on a 12-game winning streak.

In Kansas City, though, the Jayhawks have once again looked human. Poor shooting against a packed-in Oklahoma State defense nearly led to a quarterfinal exit for Kansas. Against Colorado in last night’s semifinal, poor perimeter defense let the Buffaloes hang around in a game they had no business competing in.

Just like Texas, the Jayhawks have had some bi-polar tendencies. And just like the Longhorns, Kansas has won based on pure talent in some of their poorer performances this season. If both teams show up tonight, we are in store for a highly entertaining championship game. But if either team lets their bad habits peek through the armor, you can be sure that their opponents will take full advantage.

Keys to the game

Unlike our typical game previews, there’s no way to limit ourselves to three keys for this one. Against a team as talented, deep, and disciplined as Kansas, the Longhorns have a lot of things to worry about if they expect to leave Missouri with the tournament title.

Most importantly, Johnson and Thompson must avoid foul trouble. In their win over Colorado last night, Kansas immediately put the Buffalo big men in foul trouble, leading to a revolving door of ineffectiveness that let Markieff and Marcus combine for 40 points and 21 rebounds. Not only do the Longhorns need Gary and Tristan for their scoring punch, but also to contain the big, athletic Kansas frontcourt.

Unfortunately, the Jayhawks are a team that can score in a variety of ways, which is precisely what makes it so hard to beat them. They move the ball incredibly well, which often leads to open looks when opponents choose to double down on the Morris brothers in the post. Just like in Lawrence, Texas needs to play conservative defense and avoid the temptation to jump passing lanes or double down from the guard positions.

The Longhorns will also need Good Jordan and Good J’Covan to show up this evening. Both players poured on the points in the first game, combining for 40 points. Brown was 3-of-6 behind the arc and provided the spark for Texas’ second-half surge. Late in the season, both players struggled for the Longhorns, but have picked it up in the team’s first two tournament games. If they can avoid forcing things and continue to take smart shots, Texas has a chance to pull off the sweep.

In Lawrence, the Longhorns were able to limit the damage from the Brothers Morrii thanks to a solid effort from Hill. His lack of scoring was more than made up for by the fact that he used all five fouls, and most of his fouls were hard enough to avoid and-one situations. The Longhorns don’t need much from Hill and Alexis Wangmene, but they need adequate minutes from the post reserves. Avoiding defensive lapses against the Morris brothers and limiting turnovers on the offensive end are really the only things Texas needs from them.

Finally, Texas must fight through the crowd. The Sprint Center is essentially Allen Fieldhouse East, and today will be no exception. Although the roof isn’t touching the top row like at the Phog, there are 2,000 more seats in the Sprint Center, and 99% of them will be occupied by folks in blue and red.

While this Longhorn team seems to feed off of the energy of road crowds, there’s no doubt that Jayhawk Nation will be exceptionally loud as they look for revenge tonight. When Kansas makes their runs — and rest assured, they will have a few — Texas cannot let the energy in the building lead to more mistakes.

Rivalry week continues for Texas this evening, as they follow up their quarterfinal win over Oklahoma with a semifinal battle against Texas A&M. The Longhorns are a perfect 5-0 against their two rivals this season, with their two victories over the Aggies coming by a combined 41 points.

As we discussed in yesterday’s game preview, there aren’t any “big picture” things on the line for Texas tonight. By beating Oklahoma, the Horns avoided a bad loss that might have dropped them to a 3-seed, while Ohio State, Kansas, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Duke have the inside track on the four 1-seeds even if Texas manages to win the conference tournament. For the Longhorns, this weekend is more about getting the team back on track, playing the kind of basketball they did while dominating the first few weeks of Big 12 play.

The Aggies, meanwhile, still have a lot to play for. Prior to last night’s win over Missouri, The Bracket Matrix reported that Texas A&M’s averaged a 6-seed in 83 different bracket projections. With the potential to log massive résumé-boosting wins over Texas and Kansas in the conference tournament, the Aggies could earn themselves a significant seed bump this weekend.

Meet the Aggies

For a detailed look at the Texas A&M roster, please read our preview of the first game between the two teams.

The first meeting

The Longhorns never trailed when they defeated A&M in Austin by an 81-60 count. Texas attacked the Aggie frontcourt early, feeding Tristan Thompson for eight of the team’s first 12 points. Texas’ commitment to feeding the post led to early foul trouble for A&M, with Kourtney Roberson picking up three fouls in a 26-second span.

Thompson finished the night with 18 points, while Gary Johnson scored 14 of his own. Jordan Hamilton was the Horn who most enjoyed the Lone Star Showdown, though, scorching the Ags for 27 points on 10-of-14 shooting.

Defensively, Texas turned A&M into a one-man show. Khris Middleton dropped in 16 points, but no other Aggie scored more than eight. In terms of efficiency, the effort was actually one of Texas’ weaker outings. The Longhorns allowed 1.048 points per possession, a number buoyed by a flurry of late threes from A&M. Although that’s still a solid number against a good basketball team, it paled in comparison to the dominating sub-0.800 performances the Texas D was putting up early in conference play.

The second meeting

When the teams reconvened in College Station less than two weeks later, the Texas defense was much more oppressive. Once again, the Longhorns never trailed against their rivals, and dominated the first half so much that they took a 45-20 lead to the locker room. In the first twenty minutes, the Horns allowed just 0.559 points per Aggie possession. Texas was clicking so well, in fact, that their 17 first-half bench points nearly eclipsed those of the entire A&M offense.

Most impressive was the fact that the Longhorns completely shut out Middleton in the re-match. Texas played excellent team defense, sagging off the weak side and hedging to prevent Middleton jumpers off of curls. With their star player shut out, the Aggies were led by B.J. Holmes’ 19 points, many of which came at the expense of defender Jai Lucas.

Hamilton once again loved playing against the Aggies, scoring 20 points to go with eight rebounds. He constantly attacked off the dribble, going 6-of-10 from inside the arc, and he drew enough defensive attention on his baseline drives to add three assists.

The good passes and crisp ball movement was contagious, with the Longhorns dishing out 15 assists on 27 buckets. Cory Joseph and J’Covan Brown each matched Hamilton with three assists of their own, while big man Thompson even added a pair by making the extra pass inside.

Since then…

The Aggies have taken care of business since their last loss to Texas. They won six of their final eight regular season games, with the losses coming in tough back-to-back road games against Baylor and Kansas. The offense was able to get back on track, posting efficiency numbers of greater than a point per possession in five of the games.

Last night, however, A&M broke the scale. Long known as a defensive team under both Billy Gillispie and Turgeon, the Aggies simply could not miss in their quarterfinal against Missouri. Texas A&M scored an impressive 1.201 points per possession, shooting 57.8% from the field and 50% from behind the arc.

The scariest thing is that the Aggies were able to do all this with Middleton essentially relegated to a supporting role. The star sophomore only had to play 23 minutes in the blowout, and chipped in a modest nine points in the winning effort. Holmes was once again the catalyst, drilling 4-of-6 from long range to fuel his 20-point outburst. Down low, David Loubeau abused the overmatched Tiger frontcourt, scoring 20 points of his own.

Keys to the game

For the Longhorns, once again it will be important to play suffocating defense early. Just like Oklahoma, the Aggies come into this one fresh off of their best offensive game of the year. And also just like the Sooners, the Aggies were dominated by the Longhorns in the first two match-ups this season. If Texas can once again send an early message that things will be no different this time around, the Horns could squash A&M’s hopes for an upset.

Texas must also avoid foul trouble in tonight’s game. The Aggies have the 15th-best free throw rate in Division I basketball, with Middleton and Loubeau combining to draw more than 11 fouls per game. Last night was no different, with Texas A&M frustrating the Tigers and their fans by drawing 25 fouls and 34 free throws. The Longhorns are not nearly as deep as the Tigers, and the drop-off in frontcourt talent is a steep one. Having Thompson, Gary Johnson, or Hamilton in early foul trouble could spell disaster for Texas.

Finally, the Longhorns must limit the perimeter scoring. The Aggies drilled eight threes against the Tigers last night, and made six against Texas when the teams played in Austin. If the Texas offense is struggling against a solid A&M defense, a sudden frenzy of three-pointers could change the complexion of the game in an instant.

The Longhorns must close out on Holmes and Middleton, and play another sound team game on the defensive end. Good communication should eliminate the breakdowns we saw when Levi Knuston and Rodney McGruder torched Texas from long range in losses to Colorado and Kansas State.

The last three weeks have been dicey for the Texas Longhorns. Considered the trendy pick for National Champion by many pundits back in early February, the Longhorns struggled through three losses in their last five regular season games. Even in a road win over Baylor in the season finale, the Texas offense was painful to watch.

But now, the real season begins. Sure, college basketball’s November-to-March regular season is much more exciting than practically every other sport. But once Championship Week tips off, the rules are the same for everyone. From the one-time title favorites to the NJITs of the world, all you have to do is win. Win and advance.

Fortunately for Texas, the Big 12 Tournament isn’t a must-win. They are safely in the NCAA’s field of 68, and are likely locked into a 2-seed. A loss today could make things interesting, and perhaps slide them down the S-curve into the 3-seed range. But even if the Longhorns reel off a three-game streak to claim the tournament title, there are other teams that would likely shut them out of a 1-seed. What is at stake for Texas is a chance to reclaim momentum and to rediscover the things that made their offense so scary in January and early February.

They will get their first chance to do that against the Oklahoma Sooners this evening. Texas knocked off the Sooners in both games this year, and have won 10 out of the last 12 games against their Red River rivals. An old college hoops cliché holds that it’s tough to beat the same team three times in one season. Teams learn tendencies and have more chances to adjust, making each rematch a little tougher for the victor to defend their crown.

Of course, if you’re a Texas fan that puts stock into historical numbers, you can shrug that off with smug satisfaction. In 2008, the last time Texas and Oklahoma met three times on the hardwood, the Longhorns swept the series and went on to the Elite Eight.

Meet the Sooners

For a full look at the Oklahoma roster, please read the preview of the first game between the two teams.

The first meeting

The Longhorns knocked off the Sooners 66-46 in Austin on January 15th, a game in which Texas led wire to wire. The Horns jumped out to an early lead by holding OU to just three field goals in their first 13 attempts, and allowed the Sooners just 19 points in the first half.

On the offensive end, the Longhorns were given numerous open looks from long range, and they were able to knock down seven of 12 from behind the arc on the afternoon. Jordan Hamilton was the biggest beneficiary of the poor perimeter D, and he knocked down five threes as part of his 17-point performance.

For the Sooners, Andrew Fitzgerald was the lone bright spot in an embarrassing loss. The big man had 18 points, scoring at will inside. Tiny guard Carl Blair also had a pair of easy layups when defended by Texas’ Jai Lucas, who couldn’t match Blair’s speed. Unfortunately for Blair, Lucas only played six minutes in the game.

All told, the 0.747 points per possession that Texas allowed was OU’s worst offensive performance of the year. The Sooners were just 1-of-15 from long range, leading to an effective field-goal percentage of just 40.2%, their lowest mark at that point of the season.

The second meeting

Texas’ excellent field goal defense would actually get even better when the two teams squared off again on February 9th. The Longhorns limited the Sooners to an eFG of only 36.6% on that night in Norman, as Oklahoma actually shot better beyond the arc (38.5%) than inside it (30.2%).

The Texas defense set the tone early, holding Oklahoma to just four buckets on their first 17 attempts. Like the first meeting, the Longhorns never trailed, and this time they actually built a massive 15-point advantage in the first ten minutes.

Offensively, the Longhorns had a well-balanced attack in which all five starters scored at least 11 points. Dogus Balbay opened the scoring by constantly attacking the rim, and the Sooners seemed disinterested in stopping the Turkish guard in transition. He finished with 12 points and four rebounds, and even knocked down a mid-range jumper.

The rest of the Longhorns simply toyed with the Sooners for most of the first half. Excellent ball movement and great interior passing led to numerous easy layups and dunks, with Gary Johnson logging four assists to go with his 14 points.

Since then…

The home loss to Texas was only the beginning of the slide for the Sooners. They dropped their next six, suffering through a seemingly interminable eight-game losing streak. Last year, Oklahoma lost their last eight regular season games before bowing out in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament. Unlike that team, these Sooners managed to stop the bleeding by defending their home court against Oklahoma State for a narrow three-point win in the season finale.

Last night, the Sooners built upon that OSU game and started an actual winning streak, dominating Baylor — sans Perry Jones III — for an 84-67 victory. Cade Davis led the way for Oklahoma, scoring 24 points in just 30 minutes thanks to 4-of-8 shooting behind the arc.

The Sooners scored an amazing 1.29 points per possession against the Bears, a stat made even more impressive when you consider that Oklahoma was so careless with the ball that they posted a 21.5% turnover rate.

Keys to the game

First and foremost, Texas needs to set the defensive tone early. The Longhorns raced out to early leads in the first two games with Oklahoma, largely on the back of their stingy defense. With the Sooners coming off an incredible shooting night against Baylor, Texas needs to send an early message that today is going to be very different.

The Longhorns also need to exploit the rebounding advantage this evening. Texas outrebounded the Sooners in both previous meetings, but they really wreaked havoc by limiting Oklahoma to just one offensive rebound in the first half of the game in Norman. If Texas can keep Andrew Fitzgerald and Cameron Clark from extending Oklahoma’s possessions, they should be able to finish off the sweep.

Finally, we’ll be looking to see if this is the game that gets Jordan Hamilton out of his slump. Although he is averaging 17 points per game over his last six games, those points have come on 31.4% shooting from the field.

Hamilton and the Longhorns need to rediscover the offensive mojo they had at the beginning of the conference season. At that point, the sophomore took most of his outside shots off of curls or coming around solid screens. For the last few weeks, most of his three-point attempts come as he’s dribbling against a defender and decides he has enough space to suddenly pop one.

In the two games against Oklahoma, Hamilton scored 37 points on 46% shooting, including an 8-of-17 mark from behind the arc. If there’s any opponent left in the tournament field that can help Jordan bust out of his slump, Oklahoma would be it.