After the loss to Baylor on Saturday, ESPN’s Pat Forde welcomed Texas to “the crisis zone.” While an 18-3 record is certainly not something to panic over, there is no doubt that if the Longhorns still have any designs on a Big 12 title or a 1-seed in the NCAA tournament, their slide has to end here.

Unfortunately for Texas, their next match-up will not be an easy one. Gallagher-Iba Arena is not a place where opponents often find a win, but it’s been especially tough for ranked Longhorn teams. When Texas travels to GIA with a number next to their name, they are just 1-6.

By the numbers

There isn’t anything that Oklahoma State does exceptionally well, but they aren’t particularly bad at any facet of the game, either. With the exception of their loss to Missouri on Saturday, the Pokes are best at controlling the basketball, which is important for what is a rather small team. Thanks to their smaller lineup, Oklahoma State can sometimes have trouble earning offensive rebounds. As a result, limiting the number of turnovers is key to keeping their offense clicking.

If tonight’s game comes down to free throws, the Cowboys have a distinct advantage. While Texas is shooting just 61.3% from the charity stripe, Oklahoma State is significantly better with a 71.4% mark. Fortunately for the Longhorns, Coach Travis Ford has quite a short bench on his sideline, so he can’t afford to waste fouls trying to make Texas earn its points from the line.

One other statistic of note is that the Cowboys take more than 39% of their shots from behind the arc. While the Longhorns have a very strong interior defense, it is often at the expense of their perimeter D, and OSU is a team will certainly try to take advantage of it. Luckily, they are shooting just 33.5% from behind the arc, so unless they have a banner day from three-point range, the Pokes will need points from other places to pull off the upset.

Meet the Cowboys

The undeniable star of Oklahoma State’s lineup is junior guard James Anderson. With 22.5 points per game, he’s responsible for 30% of the team’s scoring. There’s no way Texas will completely shut down the sweet-shooting guard for 40 minutes, so the Horns will have to make sure they don’t allow the other Cowboys to beat them.

Senior Obi Muonelo is an all-around threat for Oklahoma State, despite checking in at just 6’5”. He’s a scrappy rebounder and a quality ballhandler, although at times he tends to play a little out of the control when trying to drive the lane. During his four years, Muonelo has also developed an outside shot to compliment his inside and mid-range games. So far this season, he’s leading the team with a 46% mark from the perimeter. Besides the out-of-control drives, the only other knock on Obi’s game is his pitiful 55% free throw shooting.

Freshman Ray Penn was one of the top point guard recruits in the country this spring, but he likely will not be in action tonight. Team doctors discovered a “hot spot” on his shin that they believe could develop into a stress fracture, so Penn sat out the Missouri game as a precaution. Since the only treatment is rest, Penn will likely miss a handful of games.

With Penn and his thirty minutes per game now out of the rotation, tiny sharpshooter Keiton Page is helping to pick up the slack at the point. Page is the kind of feisty, hustle guy who just irritates the hell out of opponents and their fans. He’s always chasing down loose balls, and is an incredible shooter that seems to always knock down a three in the clutch.

Another player picking up more minutes at the point is freshman Fred Gulley, a product of Fayetteville, Arkansas. Like the injured starter Penn, Gulley is a lightning-quick guard who tends to score more than dish out assists. Coach Ford wants both of his freshman points to work on their decision making and develop into facilitators, but there is no question that Gulley is already an offensive threat. His quick first step might even make the defensively-sound Texas backcourt look a bit slow at times tonight.

In the middle, Marshall Moses chews up most of the minutes and grabs most of the rebounds. He’s averaging 9.9 boards to go with his 10.6 points per game, which is even more impressive when you consider how often he is in foul trouble. Moses has only fouled out of two games this year, but he’s averaging nearly four whistles per game. That limits him to just 27 minutes per contest, the least amount of playing time among the five starters.

When he’s on the floor, Moses has a nice set of offensive tools. He’s solid around the basket, has a good midrange jumper that is excellent for busting zones, and he’s playing some stiff post D as of late. The Cowboys don’t have a ton of depth down low, so Texas would be wise to attack Moses early and often in the hopes of piling up fouls.

Backing up Moses is transfer Matt Pilgrim, a hard-nosed big man who is coming off his best game of the year. Pilgrim started his career at Hampton, but transferred to Kentucky to play for Billy Gillispie. When John Calipari took over head coaching duties, Pilgrim suddenly found himself without a scholarship offer. The NCAA wisely offered him a chance to transfer elsewhere and play right away, giving the Cowboys an immediate injection of talent in the post.

Pilgrim isn’t a flashy player, but he is built like a tank. Down low, he’s a bull of a forward that will pick up a ton of points on putbacks. Against Missouri, he scored 21 points in just 23 minutes off the bench as he relieved the foul-plagued Moses. Tonight, he will likely be needed for another quality performance against a much bigger Texas team.

Freshman Roger Franklin is the only other Oklahoma State player who sees significant minutes. As a high school teammate of Texas’ Shawn Williams at Duncanville, Franklin started all four years. He’s a very athletic guy, but still needs to develop the body to compete in the physical Big 12. With his twelve minutes per game during his freshman campaign, he’s logging the experience necessary to make him a major threat in future seasons.

Keys to the game

Against a smaller Oklahoma State, Texas must dominate the rebounding battle. The Cowboys aren’t going to cough the ball up that often, so the best way for the Longhorns to limit scoring chances is to prevent offensive rebounds.

As we’ve already mentioned, Anderson will get his points tonight. There have been a few teams that have shut him down for the first half, but he always comes out of the locker room firing. While Texas obviously can’t concede a 40-point night to the guard, the Longhorns should be more concerned with limiting the damage from the other Pokes. This will really hinge on whether or not Dogus Balbay, Justin Mason, and Avery Bradley can play serviceable D on Anderson.

Finally, the Longhorns simply have to control the basketball. There have been a rash of dumb turnovers in the last two Texas losses, and nothing gets a road crowd more riled up than a bunch of easy transition buckets. The Longhorns cannot afford to give up possessions by making stupid mistakes, and the young team also can’t afford to let the crowd fuel big runs. There is no question that crowd energy played a part in the losses to UConn and Kansas State.

The big finish

Already two games behind the Jayhawks in the league standings, Texas honestly can’t afford to lose any more games if there are any hopes of winning a conference title. Kansas simply doesn’t lose at Allen Fieldhouse, and their only “tough” road tests left are at Missouri and next Monday night in Austin. (Texas Tech fans will point out that Lubbock has also been a house of horrors for the ‘Hawks, but we generally laugh at Tech fans and wave dismissively when they start talking about basketball.)

With another road game on Saturday in Norman and the aforementioned Kansas game waiting on Monday, this stretch of schedule could be deadly for the Longhorns. As much as a game can be “must win” when a team is 18-3, this game is that. Texas absolutely needs to steal a road win tonight.

The Longhorns righted the ship with a high-scoring 95-83 victory over Texas Tech on Wednesday night, but the road ahead remains difficult. Texas hosts Baylor this afternoon, a young but incredibly talented team that is far exceeding its preseason expectations. While many media outlets pegged the Bears as the 10th-best team in the Big 12, they have shown flashes of absolute brilliance even in losses to teams like Kansas and K-State.

Although the Bears lost the senior leadership of Curtis Jerrells and Kevin Rogers after last season, they’ve added an imposing presence in the paint with Michigan transfer Ekpe Udoh. As just a sophomore, the big man broke Chris Webber’s blocked shot record, but he’s added a bevy of offensive moves since arriving in Waco.

Texas fans are very familiar with the backcourt combo of Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn. Both are very quick guards with silky-smooth shots, but Carter has become quite the facilitator in the point guard role this year. He is averaging 6.5 assists to go along with his 16.7 points per game. Dunn, meanwhile, is an incredibly streaky shooter who is very, very dangerous when he gets hot. In a 31-point blowout over Oklahoma earlier this season, he exploded for 28 points on a 6-for-8 performance behind the arc.

In the frontcourt, the Bears are incredibly intimidating. Besides the 6’10” Udoh, Baylor also starts 7-footer Josh Lomers and the 6’10” Anthony Jones. This trio of players gives Coach Scott Drew a back line in his 2-3 zone that blocks a lot of shots and gets great pressure out on the corners and wings. Jones is also a solid outside shooter, which means Texas will have to keep an eye on the pick-and-pop when he is setting screens for Dunn and Carter.

Off the bench, Quincy Acy is a high-energy sixth man who leads the team with a success rate of more than 71% from the field. This number is buoyed by the fact that Acy usually finds himself open for an authoritative dunk at least four or five times a game. If Texas continues its trend of poor defensive rotation, Acy is bound to get a ton of points this afternoon.

Keys to the game

Texas has had a lot of problems against zone defenses this season, and Baylor’s 2-3 is very, very good. The Longhorns have to be patient in their efforts to break down the zone, and simply cannot settle for lazy ball reversal around the perimeter that results in bad three-point looks. Texas must attack the soft middle of the zone and get its share of good looks inside the arc.

In addition, the Longhorns can’t afford to give Baylor a ton of points in transition. Last Saturday, Texas absolutely melted down in the second half against Connecticut, and turnovers were a huge part of the problem. The Bears love to pile up points by pushing the tempo, so Texas needs to limit their turnovers and get back quickly after their offensive possessions.

After two straight road losses and a narrow overtime victory against Texas A&M, a pair of home games is the perfect remedy for the Texas Longhorns. Fortunately, that two-game homestand starts with tonight’s tilt against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, a team that is just 2-4 on the road this year and will be playing without two of their starters in the frontcourt.

Historically, Texas has dominated this series, particularly in the Erwin Center. The Longhorns have won thirteen-straight meetings at the Drum, and are 21-3 against the Red Raiders since Rick Barnes took over as head coach. While Tech’s poor road play and battered roster will likely lead to an easy Texas victory tonight, fans should know that Coach Pat Knight has certainly improved his team since last year.

The key players

Tech’s offense is still anchored by the talented John Roberson, a lightning-quick guard from Plano who also has excellent court vision. When he’s not scoring his 13.8 points per game, he’s often threading the needle to get his teammates open looks. Roberson has more than five assists per game, and in Tech’s smooth-flowing motion offense, his ability to get the ball to his teammates at the right moment is key.

The other big-time playmaker for the Red Raiders is Mike Singletary. After being a starter two years ago, he was an on-again, off-again member of the starting five last season. Then came his signature game, a 43-point outburst against A&M in the opening round of last year’s Big 12 Tournament. At one point in his amazing performance, Singletary scored 29 consecutive points for the Red Raiders.

This year, there’s no question that Mike is the go-to guy. He’s leading the team with more than 15 points a game, and his presence down low will be even more important tonight thanks to the suspension of center Darko Cohaderavic and the injury to forward D’walyn Roberts. Texas must use their frontcourt depth to attack Singletary, as there will be a huge drop-off in talent if he is forced to the bench with foul trouble.

Thanks to the absence of Cohaderavic and Roberts, a ton of pressure now falls on the shoulders of Robert Lewandowski, a sophomore forward who has seen his production tail off after a promising freshman campaign. He’s great with his back to the basket, which gives Coach Knight the opportunity to focus a little more on an inside game instead of the typical Tech offense of constant cutting, midrange jumpers, and layups. The biggest knock on Lewandowski last season was his inability to get rebounds despite his 6’10” frame, and this year those troubles have limited him to about ten minutes per contest. Tech will need him to step up tonight, which includes making some immediate improvements on the glass.

Nick Okorie is a senior guard who is nearly as quick as Roberson, and is just as big of a threat to score. He’s only started ten games this season, but is still fourth on the team in scoring with nine points per game. He’s a very good rebounder for being just 6’1″, which is important for a team that will be giving up a lot of size against the Longhorns.

The Red Raiders don’t shoot very many threes, but if they do happen to get hot from long range tonight, it will likely be thanks to JuCo transfer David Tairu. The 6’3″ guard has only taken 36 three-pointers on the year, but is by far the most accurate long-range shooter for Tech so far. Tairu is also an in-your-face defender who loves to get in his man’s jersey well beyond the perimeter.

Brad Reese is the only other Tech player who is available tonight that has logged significant minutes. He’s another junior-college transfer, coming to Lubbock from Gulf Coast CC in Florida. He’s a versatile 6’6″ player who will likely be asked to fill a multitude of roles tonight. If Tech chooses to go small, which the roster changes may necessitate, he is able to slide down to the power forward position and actually can play some solid defense. Reese also has the handles to bring the ball up the floor and attack off the dribble, so the Red Raiders will likely be looking for some added offense from him tonight.

Keys to the game

As has already been mentioned, this thin Tech bench is going to have a hard time keeping up with the depth and size of the Texas offense. But based on the last twenty minutes of Longhorn basketball we’ve seen, it’s entirely possible that the Bad Horns could show up and tank against a well-coached team. Here, then, are our keys to getting the home win and getting back on track…

Extend the defensive pressure – The Red Raiders love to score on midrange jumpers and easy layups. They are constantly cutting across the lane, setting screens away from the ball, and forcing the defense to make decisions when their skilled ballhandlers penetrate. What Tech doesn’t like to do is shoot three-pointers. Texas needs to extend their defensive pressure out past the perimeter and make the Red Raider offense work 20 feet from the basket. They must force the cutters to catch passes out by the free throw line, instead of midway down the blocks for easy jumpers. If the Longhorns can keep their men in front of them and far from the rim, it should be very tough for Tech to cobble together much of an offense.

Get Dexter involved early – We talked about the issues leading to Dexter’s disappearance in last night’s column. While we’re not holding our breath for Barnes to make any of these changes in the near future, there has to at least be a concerted effort made tonight to work the ball inside to the big man early. Texas is going to enjoy quite the size advantage against this depleted lineup, so Pitt has to pile up some points. In addition, Big Dex also has to hold up his end of the bargain by avoiding the early fouls that have hampered his playing time in recent weeks.

Force mistakes – Statistically, the Red Raiders don’t make that many mistakes with the basketball. Their 19.2% turnover rate is 96th-best in the country, but they’ve shown a tendency to make many more mistakes on the road. In Tech’s last five road games — four of which were losses — their turnover rate was never lower than 20.9%, and it even spiked as high as 29.3% in a blowout loss to Oklahoma State. The Red Raiders coughed it up 21 times in that one, leading to 29 Cowboy points off the miscues. If Texas can take advantage of this trend and steal some possessions from a less-talented Red Raider squad, it should squash any hopes of an upset.

Not a lot of time for a proper game preview this afternoon, as we have to race around the central Connecticut area to pick up fellow travelers, grab some pre-game grub, and head to Storrs early enough to check out the campus. As such, we’ll jump right to our keys for today’s game…

Solid transition defense – UConn doesn’t force very many turnovers, but when they do, you can bet the ball will quickly be pushed up the floor. The Huskies also earn a bunch of points by beating their opponents down the court after misses. UConn’s offense has been fairly stagnant lately, but they are able to make up for that recent scoring anemia with these easy transition points. Texas shouldn’t be so concerned with transition buckets that they give up on offensive rebounding chances, but the Horns certainly need to be ready to backpedal down the floor.

Drive and dish – The Huskies are the best team in the nation when it comes to blocking shots, swatting more than one in every five opportunities. Against Kansas State, another great shot-blocking team, the Horns had their greatest success when the guards penetrated, drew defensive help, and then dished to a big man on the blocks. When Texas simply tried to force things inside, they were typically bogged down by double- and triple-teams, and the offensive either stalled or turned it over. If the Longhorn guards can penetrate this tough defense, it should open things up against the formidable UConn frontcourt.

Weather the crowd – We mentioned via Twitter that Monday night’s crowd was the loudest we had heard in four-plus years of traveling. Texas managed to fight through the crowd and the momentum that comes with it, fighting back from an eleven-point deficit to even take the lead. Today’s crowd could be just as electric as Texas plays its last game with the No. 1 crown.

The Huskies have been in a recent backslide, losing four out of seven, and will be playing without the leadership of legendary coach Jim Calhoun. Connecticut also doesn’t have a true “great win” on its résumé yet, and this afternoon’s contest definitely provides that opportunity. If that’s not enough to get a storied Big East crowd fired up, I don’t think there’s much that will.

This shouldn’t be a high-scoring, up-and-down game, so any scoring runs that either team can manage will be even more important than usual. If the Longhorns find themselves falling behind as the frenzied crowd starts to froth at its collective mouth, they will simply have to play smart basketball or risk digging a hole they can’t climb out of.

One final note… – Connecticut is the fourth-best team in the country when it comes to keeping opponents off the foul line. For Texas, that is outstanding news, especially coming off of a 9-for-22 free-throw performance against Kansas State. But it also means that the Longhorns must be able to knock down their shots against a very well-coached defense. Connecticut will keep the Texas players in front of them, while a steady frontcourt holds things down inside if the Longhorns happen to make it to that second wave of defenders. If Texas has a bad shooting day against this team, it could be a long, ugly afternoon.

The trip to Iowa State in the middle of the week has unfortunately put me waaaaay behind on absolutely everything, and as a result, we’ve only got time today for a very abbreviated game preview. Let’s cut right to the keys for tonight’s game…

1) Get Bryan Davis in foul trouble – Yes, we know that senior guard Donald Sloan leads the team with more than 17 points a game. And sure, no other Aggie even averages ten points (except for Derrick Roland, who is out for the year). But Texas A&M is a completely different team without their big senior, and if he’s riding the bench with foul trouble, Texas should be able to coast in this one.

Davis is the easily the team’s best post defender, so without his presence, the Texas frontcourt would have a field day. On the offensive side of the ball, his understudy David Loubeau can certainly score inside, but often doesn’t get in good position for entry passes and as a result the team’s guards will often settle for jumpers they shouldn’t be taking.

2) Keep the Aggies off the line – Texas A&M is the best team in the country when it comes to getting to the foul line, so the Longhorns must force their opponents to earn points from the field. Texas is clearly more talented and much deeper, so giving up free points will only serve to keep the Aggies close enough to start thinking about an upset.

3) Crash the glass – Texas A&M averages a thin +0.8 rebounding margin, but in two of their three losses they were outrebounded by double digits. Texas is a much bigger team and should win this battle on paper, but the last thing the Horns will need is to give the Aggies extra possessions by getting out-hustled on the boards.