The Texas Longhorns return to the Frank Erwin Center for their final home game of the year, just one win away from their tenth consecutive 20-win season. That of course makes it Senior Night for the Longhorns, who will be bidding adieu to A.J. Abrams and Connor Atchley at the end of the season. Unfortunately, Abrams is banged up from a late-game injury suffered against Oklahoma State, but he will be on the court tonight after his availability was a question mark all day.

The bad news, though, is that Gary Johnson likely won’t play. Johnson’s absence was painfully noticeable in the last two games for Texas, who struggled to establish an inside presence against much smaller teams from Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. The Baylor Bears are also a smaller, guard-oriented team, and having Johnson available to take advantage of Kevin Rogers and Quincy Acy would have been incredibly helpful.

For Texas, tonight’s game takes on massive importance not only for the magical twenty-win mark, but also because a loss tonight could seriously hamper the team’s NCAA chances. As mentioned in this afternoon’s Fast Break, the general opinion is that one win in the final two games will move the Longhorns into “lock” territory for the Big Dance. But a loss tonight could spell disaster with a road trip to Kansas looming just six days from now.

By the numbers

The Bears are a team that lives and dies by the three. They take nearly 40% of their shots from behind the arc and are fairly successful from that distance, hitting 36.4% of their attempts so far. It’s not an overstatement to say that Baylor is completely glued to the perimeter, oftentimes to their own detriment. Even if the longball isn’t falling, the Bear guards will continue to fire them off as their opponents build larger and larger leads.

Baylor’s biggest weakness is an incredibly porous defense, something that many pundits thought was going to be a point of emphasis in the offseason for Coach Scott Drew. If it was, the numbers certainly don’t show it, as they are averaging 82.6 points allowed in their 11 losses this year. A big reason for their struggles defensively is an inability to rebound off their opponents’ misses, giving teams multiple chances to score each trip down the floor.

Those rebounding struggles are not limited to the defensive end, though. Baylor opponents are grabbing more than three extra rebounds per game in relation to the Bears, and its hindering their formerly high-powered offense. Without the key offensive rebounds off of missed three-pointers, Baylor is often limited to one-and-done possessions before having to hustle back and play D.

The starting five

The leader of the team is senior Curtis Jerrells, an Austin product who will be playing in front of his friends and family at the Erwin Center for the last time. He’s fairly strong for a guy his size, so he is able to finish through contact when he drives the lane. But what Jerrells loves even more than penetrating and drawing fouls is kicking it out to find his open three-point shooters when the defense collapses on him. He leads the team with more than five assists per game, and his ability to slash is the key to Baylor’s long-range threat.

Joining Jerrells in the backcourt is another senior, Henry Dugat, who has been struggling through conference play. Just last season, Dugat was hitting 38.6% of his three pointers, and he made over 43% of his attempts in non-conference play this year. But once league competition began, he completely fell off the map, sinking just 19.5% of his threes in Big 12 games. Dugat can put the ball on the floor and attack the rim, though, so he’s still able to help out his team despite the slump.

Junior guard Tweety Carter is a heck of a player and a likely preseason All-Conference selection next season. For now, he’s content being one of many talented Bears in the backcourt, but he still manages to turn in a few highlight-reel plays every night. He’s definitely the flashiest slashing threat that Baylor has, but his ability to hit the three from well beyond NBA range keeps defenses honest. He can hit the runners and floaters, and his mid-range shooting is just as good. If the recent trend continues where a player has a breakout game against Texas, Carter is the most likely candidate.

In the frontcourt, Baylor relies on a couple of players who are only scoring threats within a few feet of the basket. Forwards Kevin Rogers and Quincy Acy are both solid defenders and shot blockers, but on the offensive end they live solely on putbacks and bunnies. Rogers has a bit more talent with the ball and loves to sink the short hook shots, but if Texas can keep these two off of the offensive glass, the Longhorns should be able to limit their production.

Off the bench

One of the best sixth men in the conference is LaceDarius Dunn, a sophomore who is the team’s second-leading scorer despite coming off of the bench. Dunn can hit shots from anywhere on the floor, can create his own looks, and knows how to get to the rim. The only knock on his offensive game is the fact that his shot comes from a nearly set position, so he has trouble getting it over lengthy defenders. With Johnson likely not playing tonight, Texas probably can’t find anyone who has not only the length to stifle Dunn, but also the speed to contain him. Hopefully this doesn’t result in a career night from the super soph.

With Dunn and the starting five eating up so many minutes for Coach Drew, the rest of the bench sees extremely limited action for Baylor. Anthony Jones has been earning a little more playing time in conference games, but the highly-touted freshman has still yet to make a major impact. He’s a string bean at 6’10”, but he’s incredibly lengthy and is a great shot blocker. He’s even a threat from three-point range, although he’s only pulled the trigger a couple of times per game.

Josh Lomers is another big man down low for Baylor, but even in his junior year he still looks awkward and overmatched. He’s a bit clunky, is famous for picking up stupid fouls, and looks completely lost when teams double down on him in the post. Lomers might eat up a few minutes, but he’s far from a game-changer.

Mamadou Diene is the other viable post option that Drew has on the bench, but since he was replaced by Acy in the starting lineup, he has seen only a few minutes per game. Diene is another lanky guy who can alter shots down low, but his offense leaves quite a bit to be desired.

Keys to the game

Crash the glass – Baylor’s weakness on the boards dovetails nicely with Texas’ strong rebounding numbers, but the Longhorns must absolutely dominate their opponents in this category tonight. The Bears love the three-pointer, and Texas is famous for giving them up in bunches. The number one defense against that is to limit Baylor to one-shot possessions, so the Longhorns have to grab those boards.

Convert the easy buckets – Texas could have easily won the game on Saturday night in Stillwater if it had made just three or four of the point-blank shots that were missed throughout the game. The Longhorns not only missed the numerous easy looks, but compounded the problem by not following them with tip-ins or even rebounds. If Texas gets that many inside looks tonight and is able to put them in, their field goal percentage will be through the roof.

Control the ball – This key isn’t really a reflection on Baylor’s defensive pressure, but rather their miserly attitude with the ball. The Bears simply do not give up possessions with dumb mistakes. Unfortunately, Texas has had a problem doing exactly that when they have the ball. If the Longhorns do not limit their unforced errors in this game, Baylor will have a huge advantage in turnover margin and a ton of extra possessions.

Tonight the Longhorns head into the lion’s den known as Gallagher-Iba Arena, looking for that magical 20th win of the season, and perhaps a convincing hold on 4th place in the Big 12 Conference. Should the Longhorns win today and the Cornhuskers steal a road victory from K-State, Texas would claim a two-game advantage over the Wildcats and Cowboys with only two games left on the schedule. In baseball terms, that would leave the magic number at one, meaning only a Texas win or a loss by both trailing teams would seal the deal.

But the first half of that equation could be the most difficult part. The Longhorns must first win in Gallagher-Iba Arena, one of the toughest places to play in the country. It has been a particularly tough venue for Rick Barnes and Texas, as the Horns have won only two times in their last six trips to Stillwater. And although this season Texas has already blown out the Pokes, they are starting to hit their stride and are looking to play their way into the NCAAs.

The previous meeting

Texas came into the first match-up with Oklahoma State absolutely reeling. They had lost their three previous games by a grand total of 11 points, and the fans and media were bailing from the bandwagon faster than Takeru Kobayashi demolishing a hot dog. Their backs were against the wall, and unless the Longhorns started claiming some more victories, the NCAA tournament would be nothing but a pipe dream.

Fortunately, Texas came out of the gates firing on all cylinders and cruised to a comfortable 99-74 win. It seemed that the Longhorns could do absolutely nothing wrong, as they shot almost 56% from the field, drained 46% of their threes, and easily outrebounded the smaller Cowboys. The only weakness in the Texas game was a porous defense that allowed the Pokes to hit over 52% of their shots. Even that seemed reasonable, as the Oklahoma State offense was ranked in the top ten nationally in nearly every metric.

The barrage of points came from all over the Texas lineup, as five players logged double digits in scoring, including Connor Atchley, who briefly broke out of his slump to hit two threes and score fourteen. A.J. Abrams was a scorching 4-of-5 from long range, while Damion James abused the undersized Pokes for 19 points.

Since then…

The lopsided win apparently served as a wake-up call, as OSU has won its four games since the Austin lambasting. The argument could be made that this hot streak is simply a result of an easier stretch of the schedule for the Cowboys, and it would be a compelling case. The Pokes earned their four victories against the bottom four teams in the league, defeating Iowa State, Texas Tech, Baylor, and Colorado.

The statistic would back up that theory, as well. OSU has been a high-powered offensive machine all season long, yet still dropped a ton of conference games. So when a high-scoring team can’t seal the deal, the blame must fall on an incredibly weak defense. By extension, if the Pokes had actually turned a corner and were ready to make a stretch run, one would expect to see their defensive numbers improve in those four wins, especially against the dregs of the conference. That didn’t happen. The Cowboys still allowed their weaker opponents to post eFG numbers of over fifty percent.

The biggest change for Oklahoma State has been the demotion of Obi Muonelo from starter to sixth man, switching places with diminutive guard Keiton Page. This is a puzzling move for Coach Ford, because Muonelo has led the team in rebounding all season long, and putting Page in the lineup costs the already-short Cowboys another six inches in height. Against Texas, giving Page more minutes could definitely pay off, however. He’s an absolute dead-eye from behind the arc (41.7%) and the Longhorns are famous for allowing long-range gunners to get hot.

For a review of all of the Oklahoma State players and the team’s tendencies, check out the game preview from the first time these teams met.

Keys to the game

Own the glass – Against the guard-oriented lineup of Oklahoma State, Texas will have to exploit its height advantage. While that certainly includes piling up the points down low, the main way that the Longhorns must take advantage is by dominating the rebounding battle. OSU boasts one of the top offenses in the country, so when Texas gets a defensive stop, they must end the possession with solid defensive rebounding. On the offensive end, Texas will also find success if they can get a lot of junk points off of putbacks.

Toe the line – Oklahoma State is 11th in the country at shooting the longball, and we all know that Texas has major issues locking down the perimeter. There’s no easier way to let the game get out of hand and rile up the rabid Gallagher-Iba crowd than to give up a ton of easy threes to the likes of Page, James Anderson, Terrel Harris, and Muonelo.

Execute in crunch time – The main reason that Texas had its three-game slide in January and early February was an inability to make the right plays down the stretch. On the road this evening, in one of the most hostile gyms in the nation, Texas will find it even more difficult to do so. If the Pokes and Longhorns are in a tight one as the seconds tick away, the Longhorns cannot waste possessions or make dumb mistakes on the defensive end. Of course, putting the game away early could make this a moot point and save me from a few ulcers. But what’s the likelihood of that?

Tonight the Longhorns host their second straight home game, just four days after the huge win over then-No. 2 Oklahoma on Saturday night. Texas is now in a tie for fourth in the conference with Kansas State, a team who owns the tiebreaker by virtue of their win in Austin on January 31st. If the Longhorns hope to earn a bye in the Big 12 tournament, they will have to finish at least a full game ahead of the Wildcats, who will likely finish their remaining schedule with a 3-1 or 2-2 mark.

Luckily for Texas, their home slate consists of two very winnable games, starting with tonight’s contest against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Coach Pat Knight will not be on the sidelines for the game due to a suspension the league levied for his comments following his team’s loss to Texas A&M on Saturday. For a preview of the key players on the Tech squad, check out the game preview from the first game between the two teams, a contest which the Longhorns won by a lopsided 71-49 count behind 18 points from Damion James.

The Erwin Center has been unkind to Tech, as the Red Raiders have lost in their last 12 trips to Austin. It will likely be even tougher tonight, as the jersey retirement ceremony of superstar Kevin Durant will ensure a much larger crowd than typically expected for an 8:30 tip on a Wednesday.

This should be a game that Texas coasts to victory in, but stranger things have certainly happened. Hopefully, the momentum from Saturday night will carry over, and the Longhorns will make this the blowout it should be. But for a Texas team that has seemingly played to the level of its competition all season long, things could certainly be much closer than necessary.

After suffering a crushing road loss to the rival Texas A&M Aggies on Monday night, the Texas Longhorns sit in a precarious position. At just one game above the .500 mark in league play, they are in significant danger of missing out on a first-round tournament bye for only the third time in the Big 12 Conference’s 13-year history. Even more chilling is the very real possibility that the Longhorns could melt down just enough this February to miss the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1998.

There are some who would say tonight is a “make or break” game for this team. That’s only half correct. The Longhorns can certainly make their season with an upset victory over the Oklahoma Sooners, a team that is ranked second nationally and is only two days away from ascending to the No. 1 position. But a loss tonight is not the last straw. Although the bookies are favoring Texas from one to two points, make no mistake about it. This is a game that the Sooners are expected to win.

So while the potential reward tonight is huge, the risk is not nearly as great. Texas would still need to win three of its remaining four games and probably even a conference tournament contest to be on the safe side of this year’s soft bubble. But a win tonight? A win could certainly change the picture…

The previous meeting

The two teams first met on January 17th in a game many expected would help establish a favorite in the conference race. But Texas looked awful coming right out of the gates, and an irritated Rick Barnes benched most of his starters to send a message. The fact that Harrison Smith played fourteen minutes in the game should be a crystal-clear indication of just how annoyed the head coach was during the first half. Heading to the locker room, Texas was already down eleven points to the Sooners.

In the second half, the starters seemed to get the message, playing with heart and determination as they whittled the lead down to only four points with just under 12 minutes to play. But then came the meltdown. The Sooners reeled off twelve straight points and kept the Longhorns at arm’s length the rest of the way, cruising to a convincing 78-63 win.

The game showcased just how balanced this year’s Oklahoma team is, with four of the five starters contributing 15 points or more. Superstar Blake Griffin led the way with one of his countless double-doubles, scoring 20 points to go with 10 rebounds.

Since then…

Oklahoma has not lost a single conference game this season, although they have made it interesting a few times. On the road, they struggled with Texas A&M, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State, while letting the Aggies and Colorado Buffaloes hang around in games at the Lloyd Noble Center in Norman. But in every single instance, the Sooners pulled away late on the strength of solid rebounding and efficient possessions. Oklahoma has proven that even if they find themselves in a dogfight as the minutes tick away in tonight’s ballgame, you’d still want to bet the house on them.

The biggest storylines since the last time these two teams met are the emergence of Austin Johnson and the addition of Juan Pattillo to the lineup. Johnson, the team’s senior point guard, has absolutely exploded in conference play. He is averaging nearly 12 points per contest in Big 12 games and is shooting 46% from behind the arc. But perhaps most importantly, his assist-to-turnover ratio is a serviceable 2.5-to-1, an impressive achievement for someone who was known as a turnover machine during his first three seasons.

The Sooners also gained a huge advantage when they decided to take the redshirt off of Pattillo, a 6’6″ forward. He has stepped right into the rotation and gives Oklahoma some much-needed depth. Not only is Pattillo an extra body for a team that once had a short bench, but he can actually play. He’s a force inside, but also has a great midrange jumper. He’s another quality shot blocker that pairs nicely with the Griffin brothers down low, and his deft passing is an asset for a team that runs a highly-efficient half-court set.

If you’re looking for a refresher on the rest of the Sooners and their style of basketball, be sure to check out the game preview from the first match-up in Norman.

Keys to the game

Don’t put the Sooners on the line – As we pointed out in that first game preview, Oklahoma owns a distinct advantage at the charity stripe. On the season, they are averaging 9.6 more free throw attempts per game than their opponents, and you can be sure that the Sooners will be looking to exploit that advantage tonight. There is a severe drop-off in talent after the core group of Longhorns, so they simply cannot afford to rack up fouls while sending OU to the line for free points.

Keep it close early – Oklahoma has jumped out to huge leads in many of their games, and that is the one way that the Sooners can quickly mitigate the crowd factor in tonight’s contest. OU has struggled on the road, and the Frank Erwin Center is the largest arena in the conference. If Texas wants to exploit that home-court advantage, they will need to keep the score close.

Defend the three-point line – The Sooners are going to get a ton of points in the paint. It’s simply a given fact that their opponents must find a way to deal with. But in the first match-up, Texas allowed OU to shoot 40% from behind the arc, with many of the three-pointers coming at inopportune moments. Texas is already going to have its hands full in this one, so they simply cannot afford to let Tony Crocker, Willie Warren, and Johnson to make things even more difficult with a barrage of threes.

The Longhorns travel to Boulder, Colorado today in a game that, at first blush, looks like an easy win on paper. And for a Texas team that is trying to get back on the right track after a brutal stretch where they lost three games by a combined total of eleven points, it couldn’t come at a better time. But this Colorado squad is playing much better basketball than their record would indicate, and the mile-plus elevation of Boulder has often made the Coors Events Center a dangerous gym for visiting conference opponents.

The Buffaloes have only one win in the Big 12, a home victory over Iowa State. And although those same Cyclones absolutely decimated Colorado in Ames on Wednesday night by a 70-42 count, Jeff Bzdelik and the Buffs have been putting a scare into the league’s top teams. Colorado played both Kansas State and Nebraska to narrow two-point losses and fell five points short against both Kansas in Lawrence and Oklahoma in Norman.

As if the recent play by Colorado wasn’t reason enough to harbor some doubts about today’s game, the Coors Events Center has given Texas fits in the past. The Final Four team suffered a loss here in 2003, getting absolutely shot out of the building by a red-hot Colorado team, 93-80. Two years later, the Buffs repeated the accomplishment with an 88-79 win on its home floor. Even the convincing 102-78 win by Kevin Durant and the Longhorns in 2007 was an absolute battle for the first 24 minutes or so. While the preview below will likely lead you to believe that Texas should cruise back home with a victory, things likely won’t be easy.

By the numbers

There is nothing remarkable about the Colorado offense or defense, as their efficiency numbers in both categories rank almost exactly in the middle of the NCAA pack. What is troublesome for Coach Bzdelik, though, is the fact that their margin is actually a -0.2, meaning that they give up 0.2 points per possession more than they score. He counters that problem with a Princeton offense that burns clock, so the Buffs typically only see 63 possessions per game, cutting down on the opportunities for their opponents to exploit that statistic.

Colorado struggles to rebound, particularly on the offensive side of things. They grab only 21.4% of their opportunities on the offensive glass, which puts is 342nd in the country for that metric. Three hundred and forty-second. Out of 344 teams. Quality. This inability to rebound is mostly a result of the four-out, one-in look that Colorado runs, along with the fact that their only post player is often setting screens up high and is nowhere near the basket when shots are released. Texas is already a solid rebounding team, but if they can limit Colorado to one-and-done possessions today, a win should come easily.

Another number that jumps out of Ken Pomeroy’s statistical overload is the fact that Colorado tends to win only when it keeps its opponents off the free throw line. Their season average for free throw rate is just in the middle of the pack for the NCAA, but in their losses it nearly doubles. Texas should attack the Colorado zone and draw fouls rather than simply settling for mid-range or three-point jumpers.

Meet the Buffs

Colorado runs only seven or eight deep on any given night, and has had the same starting five for nearly the entire season. Bzdelik’s team is very young after losing Richard Roby, Marcus Hall, and Marcus King-Stockton to graduation, and he is hoping that giving the core group of players a huge chunk of minutes will pay dividends in future seasons.

Australian freshman Nate Tomlinson is slotted at the point, and he’s doing a commendable job running the Princeton offense with no experience. Early in the season, you could see him struggling with the new system, as he actually had more turnovers than assists. But as the season has marched on into conference play, his confidence is up and he’s making less unforced errors. Texas must keep an eye on him today, as Tomlinson is deadly from behind the arc. His 43% success rate from three-point range leads the team, and is going to be needed for Colorado to hang around in today’s contest.

The leading scorer for Colorado is sophomore guard Cory Higgins, son of former NBA player Rod Higgins. He’s one of the best free throw shooters in the country at 86%, and had streaks of 45 and 23 consecutive made free throws earlier this season. Higgins can attack the basket with ease, so it’s important for Texas to turn away his drives before he draws the fouls inside and converts the nearly-automatic points at the charity stripe. In addition, Higgins is at the top of the conference in steals, so a turnover-prone Longhorn team will have to take care of the ball when he’s nearby.

The other Buffalo who is a surefire offensive threat is Dwight Thorne II, a cousin of former A&M standout Acie Law. (As an aside, when you consider that Law is actually Acie Law IV, it makes you wonder why that family can’t come up with any new names.) Thorne is another long-range gunner, having hit on 42% of his three-point tries this year. Colorado’s offense keys on backdoor cuts and open three-point looks, so Dwight is going to be needed if the Buffaloes hope for an upset today.

Freshman Austin Dufault is the lone big man in Bzdelik’s version of the Princeton offense, and he seems to be making a good adjustment to the new system. He was Mr. Basketball in the state of North Dakota last season, and it is easy to see why. Not only can Dufault score inside and clean up the glass when he is actually in position, but he also showcases a nice jumper out to seventeen feet or so. While he’s not going to be an impact player in the league anytime soon, Dufault seems like a four-year guy who is going to be an absolute headache for opponents in his last season or two.

Jermyl Jackson-Wilson is a bull of a player despite checking in at just 6’6″. He fights hard for those offensive rebounds that seem to elude the Buffs, and prefers to muscle his way in for closer looks. With only five points and four rebounds a game, he’s not a huge contributer on the stat sheet, but his energy and hustle seem to make the difference on a few key plays in each contest.

Bzdelik really only utilizes three players off the bench, although he occasionally looks deeper down the pine when things are going horribly wrong. Levi Knutson is a reserve guard who is really struggling this season, hitting only 15% of his three point attempts after being the team’s marksman last year. Big man Casey Crawford will be called upon to spell Dufault on occasion, but he is also a quality long-range shooter. Trey Eckloff is something of a project, as he was just 17 when he hit the CU campus and has had difficulty adjusting to the college game. At 6’9″, his inside presence will be needed in the future, but for now he is relegated to the bench.

Keys to the game

Kill them on the glass – When there are often four Colorado players on the court that are 6’6″ or less, and the lone big man is often at the top of the key setting screens, the rebounds should come quite easily for Texas. The Longhorns shouldn’t have to especially try to control the rebounding battle, but should dominate on the glass and limit the number of looks for the Buffaloes. In addition, Texas should hopefully see a spike in the number of second-chance points they earn this afternoon.

Limit the threes – Colorado is going to get quite a few easy layups as a result of their Princeton offense, and there is likely little that Texas can do to stop it. But the Buffaloes are not going to beat the Longhorns by piling up a ton of layups. The thing that could keep them in this game is hot outside shooting from Thorne and Tomlinson, so Texas must ensure that those two guards do not get any easy looks from behind the arc.

Use Balbay to dissect the D – Things seemed to open up with the insertion of Dogus Balbay into the starting lineup on Tuesday night against Oklahoma State. Connor Atchley enjoyed more open looks and took advantage of them, A.J. Abrams was freed up to the tune of 20 points, and the Longhorns enjoyed a salty assist-to-turnover ratio of nearly 3-to-1. The Buffaloes love to throw a ton of different defensive looks at their opponents, so Texas will need Balbay to probe the different zones and find the open lanes and open men. If he’s not the one handling the ball, Colorado could enjoy a fair share of Longhorn turnovers.