1.05.08
Posted by Ryan Clark at 5:39AM

#24 Saint Mary’s Gaels (11-1) at #14 Texas Longorns (12-2)
Tip: 5 PM | TV: FSN (Texas and Bay Area)

With Big 12 play just a week away, the Longhorns face one of their stiffest tests as they close out the non-conference portion of their schedule. The Saint Mary’s Gaels come to town riding a five-game winning streak and boasting an upset win over Oregon in November. The Ducks have since dropped off the map, so that win might not be the calling card it once was. But don’t let that fool you into thinking that SMC is going to be a pushover — this team can win in a multitude of ways.

The Gaels hope that this is the season in which they finally get over the hump in the West Coast Conference. Forever a league dominated by Gonzaga, the WCC seemed up for grabs last year when the Gaels took out the Bulldogs early in the season. But SMC dropped four straight games in February, and Gonzaga slipped past to win yet another league crown. This year, Saint Mary’s is clearly the stronger team, but nothing would give them a bigger boost heading into WCC play than a road upset over the Horns.

By the numbers

St. Mary’s is currently 4th in Ken Pomeroy’s RPI approximations and has amassed that 11-1 record against the 23rd-toughest schedule in the country. The Gaels are at their best when pushing the tempo and forcing their opponents into mistakes, but the scary thing is that Saint Mary’s is just as effective in the half-court game. Their offensive numbers are nearly as good as those of the Longhorns, but the Gaels have a leg up because their defensive efficiency is roughly five points better.

The key players

It all starts and ends with freshman point Patrick Mills. The kid is a speedy, unflappable guard who can attack off the dribble, shoot the three, and is absolutely stellar in transition. He’s also got an eye for the court, as he constantly feeds the pair of big men down low for Coach Randy Bennett.

As you’ll hear endlessly during today’s broadcast, Mills is an Aborigine from Australia, one of three active Aussies on the Gaels roster. Ben Allen is also from Oz, although he will have to sit the season after transferring from Indiana.

Diamon Simpson is one of the big men who will create problems for the Longhorns down low. He was named Player of the Month for the WCC in December, and has an array of solid post moves. He’s averaging nearly a double-double so far this year, with 12.2 PPG and 9.6 RPG for the Gaels. Although SMC doesn’t play a style similar to Wisconsin or Michigan State, rebounding was a big concern in both of those losses and could play a big role in today’s game.

The other big threat is the mohawked Omar Samhan. He’s a beast of a man, checking in at 6’11” and 265 pounds, which means that only one player on Rick Barnes’ bench truly matches up with him. The problem with using Dexter Pittman to slow down Samhan is that he’s a liability in the kind of up-and-down game we’re likely to see today. It is likely that Samhan will face a steady rotation of players, if freshmen Alexis Wangmene and Clint Chapman have found their way out of Coach’s doghouse.

Forward Ian O’Leary reminds me a lot of Connor Atchley in that he’s a white forward who has surprising range. Although he’s about four inches shorter than Connor, O’Leary can still play both inside and out. He’s only averaging roughly eight points per game so far, but with the problems Texas typically has at guarding the three-point line, O’Leary could threaten to score more.

Tron Smith is an electric guard off of the bench who is averaging over 21 minutes per game for the Gaels despite never starting a contest. He can absolutely jump out of the gym and is a solid scoring threat as well, averaging nine points per game so far this year.

What to look for

Don’t get frustrated – The Gaels are an excellent defensive team, and the Longhorns have struggled recently at putting the ball in the basket. If scoring is as difficult as to can be expected today, Texas cannot get frustrated and let it change their game plan.

Battle on the glass – These are quality big men for the Gaels, and the Longhorns have let bigger teams push them around on the boards. Texas cannot afford to let a team that is this good clean up on the offensive glass and earn extra possessions.

The guard situationA.J. Abrams is expected back from injury, but how effective will he be? D.J. Augustin has picked up a pair of fouls early in the first half against both TCU and Michigan State, crippling the offense with his time on the bench. If both can play solid games today, it opens up Justin Mason as a solid sixth man, and it instantly increases the potency of the Texas offense.

If you’re in Austin and even considering going to this game, please make it out to the Drum. Saint Mary’s is an excellent basketball team, but the average fan will see their name on the schedule and think it is just another creampuff. Texas can’t afford to have a half-empty, quiet arena in this ballgame. SMC does not usually play in arenas this big, and a rocking crowd of 14- to 16-thousand people would certainly shake them.

For those Longhorns out on the West Coast, please note that Fox Sports Net Plus will be airing the game in the Bay Area, while fans across the country with ESPN Full Court can also check this one out.

1.02.08
Posted by Ryan Clark at 1:29PM

TCU Horned Frogs (8-4) at #14 Texas Longhorns (11-2)
Tip: 4 PM | TV: FSN Southwest

The Longhorns hit the court again this afternoon, hoping a game against TCU can help them bounce back from consecutive losses to tough, physical Big 10 opponents. The big news of the day is the regular-season debut of freshman stud Gary Johnson, who should help the Longhorns with that weak inside game. Johnson’s return also relegates guard Justin Mason to the bench, which will help to ease the burden on the overworked combo of A.J. Abrams and D.J. Augustin.

While the losses to Michigan State and Wisconsin were not blowouts, one can’t help but think back to the Elite Eight season just two years ago. That Texas team started the year with nine straight wins before suffering back-to-back blowouts to Duke and Tennessee. That team finished the year at 30-7 — the best record in school history — and it took overtime to knock them out of the NCAA tournament just shy of the Final Four. One can only hope this season’s story arc will continue with its similar path.

By the numbers

The Horned Frogs are a sight for sore eyes on the Texas schedule at this point. TCU is an average 8-4 so far this year, and has amassed the mark against the 333rd toughest schedule in the country. Or if you prefer to look at it the other way, they did it against the 9th easiest schedule to date.

TCU’s losses have come against some familiar opponents, as they lost three straight after Thanksgiving to the likes of Tech, Oklahoma, and SMU. After beating up on some more patsies from the Southwestern Technical Association of Seminary Colleges, the Horned Frogs blew a big halftime lead on Saturday against the Rice Owls, ultimately losing by five.

Texas Christian is an up-tempo team, with an average of 71 possessions per game. While the Longhorns’ tempo numbers are muddled by slower games against UTSA, UCLA, Michigan State, and Wisconsin, it is undebatable that Texas plays better when pushing the issue and getting out in transition. Unless the Horned Frogs try to adjust their own style to slow down the Longhorns, this one could be ugly.

Offensively, TCU is a slightly above average squad, averaging just over a point per possession. While that’s no match for Texas — who sports the most effective offense in the land — the Horned Frogs’ troubles are further complicated by their struggling defense. Their numbers look good at first blush, but when adjusted to reflect that pitifully easy schedule, their DefEf plummets to 222nd in the country. If the Longhorns don’t score at will against these guys, something is horribly wrong.

Players to watch

Junior guard Henry Salter is the go-to guy for the Horned Frogs, averaging 14.9 points in only 26.1 minutes per game. He takes good care of the ball, and is a deadly shooter from behind the arc. Salter is 30-of-61 from long range so far this season, so if the Horned Frogs are going to have any chance of an upset, they’ll need him to continue the three-point bombing.

Big man Kevin Langford is the brother of former Kansas Jayhawk Keith Langford, but isn’t quite as good. This Langford knows how to get to the line, as he holds one of the highest free-throw rates in the nation. Unfortunately, he’s only 70% from the line once he gets there, although that still makes him one of the best Horned Frogs from the charity stripe. As a team, TCU is only 63% from the line.

Brent Hackett is the other starting guard for Coach Neil Dougherty, and he is not shy about launching the three-ball. While he’s not nearly as accurate as Salter, Hackett has 93 attempts from behind the arc and has connected on 34% of them. Although Mason will be coming off the bench, his lockdown defense will be needed to keep Salter and Hackett under control.

Coming off the bench is guard Jason Ebie. The 6-foot, 1-inch sophomore has quick hands and is adept at forcing steals that jumpstart the TCU transition game. If Ebie is in the game, Horn fans have to hope that Augustin is always at the point. The thought of Abrams or Mason having to run the show against this thief is pretty scary.

What to look for

Crashing the glass – TCU is a horrible rebounding team, and the addition of Gary Johnson to the lineup should only make things worse for the visitors. After struggling on the glass against Michigan State and throughout the second half of the Wisconsin game, this one should offer the Texas bigs a good chance to pad those stats.

The sixth man – How will Justin Mason respond to his new role as the first man off the bench? His offensive game has struggled lately, so one can only hope that this shake-up gives the kid the spark he needs to get back on track.

The Gary Johnson effect – In addition to helping out on the boards and in the paint, the addition of Johnson also should free up other Longhorn players on the court. I’m particularly interested to see how often Gary’s presence inside opens up Connor and Damion for those mid-range jumpers they can easily knock down.

The magic number – Although Texas really shouldn’t have a problem in this one, it is interesting to note that the Horned Frogs have scored at least 75 points in each of their eight wins this year. Unless TCU can shoot it over the Texas defense, they will likely be held below the magic 75 mark.

12.29.07
Posted by Ryan Clark at 9:22AM

Wisconsin Badgers (8-2) at #9 Texas Longhorns (11-1)
Tip: 11 AM | TV: ESPN2

Texas faces its second-straight Big 10 opponent this morning as Bo Ryan’s Wisconsin Badgers come to town. The Longhorns are looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season, suffered last Saturday at the hands of Michigan State. Wisconsin comes into this one as winners of three straight, having only suffered two losses — both to teams currently ranked in the Top 10.

By the numbers

Bo Ryan’s teams are always known for their defense, and this year’s squad is no different. The Badgers are the best defensive team in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy, but offensively they are not too shabby either. Wisconsin boasts a +30.5 scoring differential per 100 possessions, which is slightly better than Texas’ +26.5 mark.

The Badgers are holding opponents to 36.6% shooting on the season. In the loss to Michigan State, the Horns shot only 39.3% for the game, their first game under the 40% benchmark on the year. Texas will have to really fight for its baskets today, and must grab as many easy looks in transition as they can.

The Badger team

Bo Ryan returns an experienced starting five, with two seniors, two juniors, and a sophomore. Big man Brian Butch is an integral part of the game plan, as he cleans up on the offensive glass and gives the team a shot at a ton of second-chance points. When he went down with an injury in the late-season game against Ohio State last year, the Badgers’ hopes for a Final Four run disintegrated.

Guard Trevon Hughes leads the team in both minutes and points, with 31.2 MPG and 15.1 PPG so far. He’s only six feet tall, so he is not a much of a mismatch for the Texas guards as some players they have faced in the past. If the Horns can actually shut down Butch as they did with Kevin Love against UCLA, the Badgers will have to rely on Hughes to carry the weight.

Michael Flowers has seen his game improve since being promoted to the starting role four games ago. He’s also not a tall guard, checking in at 6-feet, 2-inches, but if he continues his hot shooting it will make the Horns have to pick their poison.

The forwards on this Badger squad are big and effective, and will combine with Butch to create problems for Texas in the paint. Joe Krabbenhoft may have looked ridiculous in the high, striped throwback socks earlier this month, but 7.6/6.3 average is anything but funny. Marcus Landry has similar numbers, with 9.5 points and 5.1 boards per game.

What to look for

This is going to be a physical, slow-down affair, the type of game that causes problems for Texas. With the 11 A.M. start and students still on vacation, the awful atmosphere in the Frank Erwin Center could definitely let the Badgers hang around longer than they should. Texas needs to get out to a quick start and keep the dogs at bay, but also should not panic if they struggle early. Bo Ryan’s team is going to make it incredibly tough to score, so the Horns can’t afford to give in at any point.

Game is on ESPN2 this morning, so if you can’t make it down to the FEC, be sure to tune in.

12.22.07
Posted by Ryan Clark at 9:45AM

This update comes to you from Toronto, our third stop on this lengthy trip. It is an amazing city and we stayed out a little too late last night, so unfortunately this game preview will have to be quite abbreviated to get us back across the border and up to Auburn Hills on time.

Michigan State, much like UCLA, is a tough match-up for the Horns. They play good defensive basketball, grinding the game down to their tempo. Ken Pomeroy has their tempo near the bottom of the rankings. The interesting thing about this year’s Spartan team, though, is their increased offensive efficiency, as their adjusted offensive efficiency is only seven points lower than Texas’ numbers.

If you remember last year’s meeting at Madison Square Garden, you may also remember that the Spartans held the Horns to only 20.6% shooting in the second half. Michigan State also beat the Horns solidly on the glass, grabbing a ton of rebounds and second-chance points. The battle on the glass could again be problematic for Texas this evening, particularly considering how the Horns have struggled to control the boards even against much smaller teams this season. Tom Izzo has some big-time rebounding threats in Raymar Morgan, Goran Sutan, and to a lesser extent Marquise Gray, so Connor Atchley and Damion James will have their hands full.

Drew Neitzel is obviously the heart and soul of this team, but he is struggling from an uncomfortable bout of streak-itis. He’s yet to put together a complete game against one of the tougher opponents on the Spartans’ schedule, but still averages 14.5 points per game. He also always seems to take — and make — the big shots late in the game, so if this one is close at the end, Texas needs to keep the ball out of his hands.

Texas proved in Los Angeles that it can win a tough, grind-it-out basketball game against a bigger team. That is going to be their task tonight, and they have a good chance to do so. They will need to limit the easy put-backs and fight through screens or constantly switch to keep Michigan State from freeing up Neitzel. Texas should also expect to struggle offensively against a Tom Izzo team, but must not abandon their game plan.

TV for this one is ESPN2, although it appears it won’t be in HD. Tip is 5:30 P.M. Central, so flip over to the Deuce as the Horns go for their third win over a top-ten opponent in only two months.

12.18.07
Posted by Ryan Clark at 4:02PM

Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (6-3) at #4/5 Texas Longhorns (10-0)
Tip: 5:30 PM | TV: FSN Southwest (TX only)

Although Texas defeated Texas State to move to 10-0 on Saturday night, Rick Barnes was anything but pleased. He put the team through a two-and-a-half hour film session the next day where every mistake was exposed, analyzed, and scrutinized by the coach. He was particularly disgusted with a defense that over-pursued and bit on too many ball fakes. Barnes certainly hopes that the session pays immediate dividends, as the sharpshooting Oral Roberts Golden Eagles arrive in Austin this evening.

This game is a perfect convergence of factors that could lead to an upset. Texas is playing on only two days rest, and the game against the Bobcats was a ridiculously up-tempo track meet. Oral Roberts, on the other hand, hasn’t played a game since December 8th. Texas certainly has problems with depth, and that could be a factor against a well-rested Golden Eagle team.

In addition, the inexplicable tip time of 5:30 P.M. means that John Q. Public will find it hard to make it to the game before it starts, and may even blow it off for the comfort of their couch. Meanwhile, many students have already gone home for the holidays, meaning that the Frank Erwin Center could be more of a morgue than an arena. If you think back to some of the team’s flattest games over the last few years, they often were accompanied by mediocre or quiet crowds.

Most importantly, Oral Roberts is a quality basketball team with experienced leadership. They have won their conference’s last two tournaments and won the regular season crown in each of the last three seasons. Last November, the Golden Eagles not only knocked off Kansas, but they did it in Allen Fieldhouse. While they’ve lost two starters from last season, their current roster has seven upperclassmen who play more than 20 minutes per game.

If Texas isn’t careful, tonight could get incredibly dicey. The combination of fatigue, an empty arena, and an experienced mid-major opponent could spell disaster.

By the numbers

Oral Roberts runs at a pace that is slightly below average, checking in with 64.5 possessions per game. That is a far cry from the 80+ that Texas State was averaging prior to Saturday night’s contest, which should help a tired Texas team. The Golden Eagles are also roughly middle-of-the-pack in both offensive and defensive efficiency, with no numbers that jump off of the page.

The starting five

Senior Moses Ehambe has started all nine games for Scott Sutton. Ehambe is a great outside shooter, hitting 46% of his threes so far this year. At 6’6″, he has quite a bit of height over the Texas guards and could knock down quite a few treys right in front of them. He has only been to the line ten times this year, so it’s safe to assume this guy won’t be attacking the rim. Texas needs to lock down on him around the perimeter, or it could be a long night.

Shawn King is another senior who has started all nine contests this year, averaging 10.4 points and 6.7 rebounds per game so far. He is a blocking machine, stuffing 20 in the first eight games. It will be interesting to see how D.J. Augustin’s game is affected when he tries to drive the lane with this guy waiting down low. Connor Atchley will also be tested by the 6’10” center from St. Vincent.

Yemi Ogunoye starts at forward, and is known as a fantastic on-the-ball defender. While one might expect him to match up with Damion James based simply on size, against North Dakota State he was tasked with shutting down the league’s leading scorer, a 5’11” guard. Ogunoye could very well be matched up with D.J. Augustin if Sutton decides to employ this mismatch technique again, but no matter who he is sticking, one Longhorn will have a tough night.

Robert Jarvis is the team’s leading scorer and another threat from downtown. While he isn’t quite as good as Ehambe so far this season, he is sinking 44.3% of his three-point attempts. Texas had difficulty last year defending the three ball and occasionally has struggled with it this season as well. Oral Roberts will likely look to exploit this in their upset bid.

The second starting guard for Scott Sutton is Adam Liberty, but he is not much of a scoring threat. When Liberty does score, though, it is usually from long range or the line. He’s made more free throws (29) than field goals (22), and is shooting less than five percentage points lower from behind the arc than inside it. At 6’2″, he is a good match-up for Texas’ quick, undersized guards, but the Horns need to make sure they keep him off the charity stripe.

What to look for

The high-flying transition game of Texas might be stuck in second gear tonight, as most of the starters will have very tired legs. This comes at an unfortunate time, considering this Oral Roberts team has a problem controlling the ball. Despite a winning 6-3 record, the Golden Eagles have only forced three more turnovers than they’ve given up. If the Longhorns can overcome the fatigue and win the transition battle, the chances for upset are significantly diminished.

With the tempo being much more normal in this game, fans can also look for more minutes out of Dexter Pittman. He doesn’t fit well into the flow of a transition game, but the half-court sets we should see tonight offer him a great opportunity to work on posting up. Also keep your eyes on freshman Clint Chapman in this one. He played hard on Saturday, but his effort was overshadowed by a handful of stupid fouls. It will be interesting to see if he can make a difference tonight without sending the Golden Eagles to the line.

It’s been mentioned multiple times in this preview, but the Horns must stop the three. They also need to improve their entire defensive showing after such a tough night against Texas State. If the Longhorn defense from the UCLA or Tennessee games shows up tonight, it’s going to be a bloodbath. If not, the Golden Eagles could be in it until the end.

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