Tip: 8 PM, ESPN

Remember the year that A&M went 0-for-conference? Or how about a little more recently, when Coach Billy Gillispie had to grind out defensive wins in low-scoring games that ended up in the 40s or 50s? Forget about all of that. It’s ancient history at this point. The A&M team that is going to take the court tonight against the Texas Longhorns is a legit Final Four contender.

Texas A&M (19-3 overall, 7-1 Big 12) is coming into the game riding the biggest win in their school’s history, a last-minute victory on the road in Lawrence, Kansas. That triumph vaulted them into sole possession of first place and may have finally awoken the national media to the elite basketball team that Gillispie has quietly been building in College Station.

Looking at Ken Pomeroy’s statistical rankings, Texas A&M is one of only two teams that can claim a top-ten ranking in both defensive and offensive efficiency. The other? Perennial powerhouse North Carolina. If you crunch the numbers, the Aggies are enjoying a +36.5 efficiency margin, meaning they outscore their opponents by that number per 100 possessions.

Texas (16-6, 6-2) is going to have fits with big man Joseph Jones. Last year in Austin, Jones scored 31 points before fouling out late in the game. That ridiculous performance was against a Longhorn team that sported LaMarcus Aldridge and Brad Buckman inside. This smaller Texas squad is definitely going to have its hands full. Look for Barnes to employ the 2-3 zone that shut down LSU big man Glen Davis in an effort to deny Jones and Antanas Kavaliauskas the ball inside.

Of course, that 2-3 zone leaves the Horns susceptible to the three-point shot, as Kansas State so adeptly demonstrated on Saturday afternoon. For A&M, that will mean that Josh Carter and Acie Law XIVLCIII will have to shoot us out of it. (Or not, if we prefer to allow them 14 three-pointers.) Carter is hitting at 50% so far this year from behind the arc, so if he is on his game it could be a long night. Barnes may toy with putting Durant out on the perimeter in the zone, not only to protect against foul trouble, but also to actually get the pressure on shooters that was lacking Saturday.

Law is also one of the more underrated point guards in the country, and he can certainly penetrate and dish to the open man on the perimeter, or to the open big underneath if the help defense collapses. He is a huge part of A&M’s success thus far, and the LSU loss highlighted that fact. Law was 1-for-11 that night, and the Tigers absolutely blew them out, finishing with a 12-point win.

One of the most striking things about this A&M team is how much their offense has improved since just last season. Dominique Kirk is honestly only a fifth option for the Ags, yet he still manages nearly seven points a game while dishing out three assists. Everybody on this team contributes, and that can be bad news for a Texas team that likes to mysteriously lose a man on defense.

For the Horns, KD is going to be key, as always. If he isn’t scoring at least 25 points, Texas doesn’t stand a chance. Fortunately, his skill set allows him to score even when double and triple-teamed. (See: Oklahoma State, January 2007.) He can shoot the three over their tough defense, and should open up some of our other players just by drawing the extra attention from their defense.

Even with Durant, the Horns will need all of the other players to work within their roles. A.J. Abrams has to limit himself to a catch-and-shoot mentality, and needs to flash out to the perimeter quicker on defense. Justin Mason must continue to provide good D while occassionally adding a nice layup or three-pointer. Connor Atchley needs a fourth-straight big game on the glass against the bigger, tougher Aggie team. The same goes for Damion James, although a modicum of offense from the big guy would be a nice bonus. And D.J. Augustin is going to have to break down the Aggie defense, limit his turnovers against their pressure, and not force the ball inside when the passing lanes aren’t there.

All told, it’s a very tall order. I think that Texas can hang with A&M, but won’t be able to overcome a well-coached team playing in front of a rabid fanbase. Aggies take this one and continue their march through the Big 12, but Texas keeps it within ten.

Tip: 2:30 PM, ABC

It’s a chilly 32 degrees outside the Erwin Center, but inside my tent I’m cooking up a hot and fresh game preview. That was a pretty shitty lead, but then again, I can’t really feel my toes.

Today’s game is being called a split national telecast, but come on. It’s two games being shown regionally. And, according to this coverage map, Alaska and Hawaii are smack in the middle of the North Carolina region. Allllllrighty.

At the helm for Kansas State is infamous coach Bob Huggins. Love him or hate him, he’s the sports story of the year in Kansas and he’s gotten interest in Wildcat hoops back on the rise. One of six new coaches in the Big 12, Huggy Bear is planning to threaten the Jayhawks’ dominance in the near future. It doesn’t look like it’s going to happen this year, but with his squad at 5-2 in conference play, they are already competing for a first-round bye in the conference tournament.

The Wildcats play a style of ball similar to Billy Gillispie’s Aggies and are going to look to force the game into a physical, defensive battle. If Texas gets stuck settling for half-court sets, they will playing right into their opponent’s hands. Burnt Orange Nation took a look at Ken Pomeroy’s statistical analysis earlier this week to quantitatively show the things we’ve been seeing all along, including our reliance on transition and the need to stay away from that half-court game.

Fans of Texas basketball will remember K-State’s Cartier Martin, if only because the announcers of last year’s game said his name more times than they showed Jim Woolridge flailing aroud in his neck brace. This year, Martin is a sixth-man for the purple and grey, and is still just as effective. He is scoring 15.8 points in his nine games coming off the pine and is giving Huggins roughly 27 minutes a game.

For the past five games, the Wildcats have sported the same starting lineup — guards Clent Stewart, Lance Harris, Akeem Wright, and forwards David Hoskins and Luis Colon. Despite only starting two big men, K-State is third in the conference in rebounding advantage (+5.4). Although Texas leads the league in this category, this is going to be one of the toughest battles on the glass that the Horns have had thus far.

Hoskins and Martin are the key men on offense, according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. They combine to end possessions for the ‘Cats over 50 percent of the time, which indicates their importance to the (admittedly) anemic offense. Granted, K-State’s offense has seen an upswing with the recent stability of their starting lineup, but this is definitely a team that relies on their defense.

In their current six-game winning streak, the Wildcats are holding opponents to an average of 59 points per game. They are holding league foes to a 39.7 shooting percentage, good enough for fourth in the conference. As earlier stated, Texas cannot afford to let the score stay as low as Kansas State wants.

In the middle, freshman big man Jason Bennett towers over the lane at 7-foot, 3-inches. In only 13.6 minutes per game, he’s averaging 2.3 blocks. If our guards try to penetrate against this guy, we might have a few balls rejected into the mezzanine.

While I’d love to see Big Dex play against this good rebounding squad, I’m not sure he can keep up with the pace we’re going to want. If we can get three to four minutes out of him per half and utilize him inside during those stretches, he will have done his part. Damion James and Connor Atchley are going to have to step up and stop Martin and Colon, while getting the offensive rebounds to keep our possessions alive.

A quick recap of the keys to the game:

Play our tempo – The half-court set does nothing for Texas, particularly in these next two games against defensive-minded opponents. The Horns need to have a good transition game and also keep the Wildcats from capitalizing on their own turnovers.

Fight on the boards – This is particularly important on the offensive end, because K-State is going to likely force more misses from the Horns than they are used to. They’ll need to be nails on the offensive glass if they want to get the second- and third-chance points they’ll need.

Draw fouls – D.J. Augustin and Kevin Durant are particularly effective at getting to the rack and then the line. With Kansas State’s physical style of play, the Horns need to try to take advantage of the home-court whistles and get the key Wildcat players on the bench in foul trouble.

Tip is at a little after 2:30 on ABC, but there’s still activity at the ticket window on Red River. So buy up some mezzanine tickets, pack the Drum, and let’s send Huggy Bear back home with a loss — where he can continue to not graduate his players.

Tip: 8 PM
TV: ESPN2

After last year’s trip to Lubbock and the meager, half-dead crowd that filled United Spirit Arena, I never thought I’d call that gym a tough place to play. But in the past two weeks, two different top ten teams have fallen victim to the Texas Tech Red Raiders on their home court. Both Kansas and Texas A&M left the O’Reilly Auto Parts Corporate Whore Court (brought to you by the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal with the co-operation of Jason’s Deli) as a mob of red-clad students rushed the floor.

Texas (15-5 overall, 5-1 Big 12) comes to town having won their last two games after dropping the two prior. Texas Tech (15-6, 4-2) is looking to bounce back from an absolute ass-kicking at the hands of the Missouri Tigers this weekend.

The story of the game seems to be the injury bug going around the Red Raider locker room. Seven-footer Esmir Rizvic was knocked out a few weeks ago by the flailing elbows of Longar Longar, while starter Jon Plefka and key reserve Charlie Burgess were both missing from the loss to Mizzou. Plefka is suffering from a leg injury described as a tear and will likely miss tonight’s game. Burgess badly sprained his ankle at a team shootaround on Saturday. No word yet on whether he will be starting or even playing against the Horns.

Seniors Darryl Dora and Jarrius Jackson will be available for Coach Bob Knight, and he will need a ton of minutes out of them with the shortened bench. But if the Mizzou game was any indication, Knight is not too confident in Dora the Explorer. He sat the forward for most of the game, giving him only 10 minutes on the court. Jackson, on the other hand, has been as effective as ever. He’s hitting at just a hair under 50% from behind the arc and is the 8th best player in the entire country when it comes to protecting the basketball.

Martin Zeno is the other man to keep an eye on tonight. Zeno, Jackson, and the injured Burgess are the only players to average over 30 minutes a game for the Red Raiders, while a motley band shares responsibilities the rest of the time. Zeno is scoring 16.4 points a game and leads a poor rebounding team with 4.7 boards a game.

After watching Texas struggle against a Baylor team that was moving the ball very well, I’m fairly concerned about our ability to contain Knight’s highly-effective motion offense. Besides Justin Mason and Craig Winder, the Longhorns don’t have a whole lot of quality defense available, so it’s probably best for the team to stick with a zone. If Tech shoots us out of it, though, we could be in for some trouble.

Kevin Durant heads into the game with 488 points on the year, just 160 shy of Terrence Rencher’s freshman record. (As an interesting aside, I threw a football around with Rencher while waiting to be let into the Baylor game on Saturday. Not something I thought I’d be doing when I woke up that morning.) KD needs only 16 points per game the rest of the way to tie the mark, and I have a strong feeling we’ll be seeing much more than that tonight.

Tonight, Texas needs to look to take advantage of a Texas Tech squad that is not doing very well on the glass, and will now likely be without two of their “better” rebounders in Burgess and Plefka. The Horns average eleven more boards per game than Tech, and will hopefully be able to enjoy that margin against the depleted Red Raiders.

The injuries also mean that Texas should push the tempo in this game. While that’s always a good idea for a team like Texas that is lacking on defense, it should be especially important against a team who will be relying on reserves to fill in a ton of minutes. Get the opponents gassed, and Knight will have to look even further down his bench to get them some rest. Of course, this strategy means that Connor Atchley will have to come up big for a second straight game, while J.D. Lewis will need to refrain from offensive stupidity when giving our starters a brief spell.

The crowd is going to be a huge factor in this one, so hopefully Texas can jump out to an early lead. They had a huge advantage by halftime in Knoxville and never trailed by a significant margin in the first half of the road losses to Oklahoma State and Villanova. The Horns were able to fight back from five down on multiple occasions in the overtimes of the Okie State game, but we have yet to see how they’ll perform if faced with a massive deficit in front of a hostile crowd looking for the knockout punch.

For a shorter look at the game from our opponent’s point of view, be sure to check out the preview at the Red Raider blog Double T Nation. And don’t forget to buy your tickets for the home game against K-State on Saturday afternoon. As of Tuesday morning, approximately 2,600 tickets were remaining for the game. Could we have two huge crowds in a row for historically middle-of-the-road conference teams? I’ll cross my fingers.

See you again on Thursday for a game wrap, and perhaps another album from earlier in the season.

Tip: 5 PM
TV: ESPN2

It’s a gorgeous Saturday here in Central Texas, but I’m imploring you to stay inside. Inside the Frank Erwin Center, to be specific. Baylor is coming to town this evening, and is looking to end a 17-game losing streak to the Longhorns. Fortunately, this Bear squad is young and can’t buy a win on the road — they have lost 20 straight true road games heading into today’s matchup.

Baylor (11-8 overall, 1-5 Big 12) started out the year hot against a schedule that doesn’t do the word “soft” any justice. The Bears opened the year with a win over D-2 Angelo State and then scored another nine wins in non-conference play. The truth is hidden behind the scores, though. The combined record of the nine opponents Baylor beat in non-conference play is an abysmal 55-97.

In conference play, Scott Drew’s club has struggled. Their one win came by three at home against a Texas Tech team that is making a lot of noise. Otherwise, the Bears have been absolutely pasted in the Big 12; in their last two losses to Kansas and Oklahoma, the Bears fell by an average of 33 points.

Baylor has not had any statistical standouts on their team this year, but that isn’t to say their team is untalented. Aussie standout Aaron Bruce returns, and is one of the few experienced leaders on the team. The hot-shooting Bruce is averaging just over eleven points in roughly 30 minutes a game. If he gets rolling, Baylor can make a quick run. Texas will need to fight through the screens and stick with Bruce — although he does possess the ability to beat us off the dribble as well.

Big man Kevin Rogers could pose a problem for Texas down low. A teammate of Darrell Arthur at South Oak Cliff, Rogers is a blocking machine for the Bears. He’s leading the team with 12.3 points per game and 7.3 rebounds. With the emergence of Dexter Pittman, it should be fun to watch that pair tangle in the paint.

Sophomore guard Curtis Jarrells makes his second Frank Erwin Center appearance in front of his friends and family. A left-handed guard from Del Valle HS, Jarrells is one of Scott Drew’s biggest recruiting scores since stepping foot on the Waco campus. He can find the passing lanes with ease, but knows how to score as well.

Seven-footer Mamadou Diene is playing hobbled as of late, as he has had to struggle through both ankle and knee injuries. Hopefully this will limit his output against Texas today, but don’t be surprised to still see him blocking shots in the middle. The sophomore giant is blocking two shots a game despite only logging 20 minutes in each contest.

In the “interesting subplot” category, junior transfer Mark Shepard played at St. Michael’s Academy in Austin, the same school that produced UT fan-favorite Ian Mooney. If the game gets as ugly as it has the potential to become, we could see this pair of bench players facing off in the waning minutes of a blowout.

For Texas, the biggest thing to watch today is the development of Dexter Pittman. He showed great things on Wednesday against Nebraska, and Coach Barnes seems committed to making him a bigger part of the gameplan, now.

The Horns have actually been doing quite well on the glass without a consistent post presence, but Baylor has a pair of seven-foot centers that could make the rebounding battle something of a challenge. It’s up to Damion James and Pittman to step up in that regard, because we all know that Kevin Durant is going to get his double-double somehow.

Over 2,000 tickets remained as of noon yesterday, so give TBO a call and bring the family down to the Drum. And if Texas fans surprise me and this thing sells out, you can catch it at 5 PM on the Duece. Do they still call it that? And remember the logo? “Yeah, we’re ESPN….but look at how extreme we can be! We’ll draw a 2 in a squiggly font!”

But getting away from memory lane and back to the task at hand. Buy tickets. Show up.

Tip: 7 PM Central (Fox Sports Net)

I catch a flight for Nebraska in about three hours, so here is a quick pre-game look at the Cornhuskers.

Led by new coach Doc Sadler, Big Red looks to be an up-and-coming team in the Big 12. Fortunately for Texas, that process should take a few years. The team that takes the court tonight at the Devaney Sports Center is not exceptionally talented and will likely be a middle-of-the-pack conference team when all is said and done.

The biggest threat comes from center Aleks Maric, a beast of a man with a shaved dome and a propensity to dominate on the defensive glass. He is also the true focal point of the offense, taking shots in nearly one out of every three possessions he is on the floor. With the exception of the Iowa State game, all four teams that have defeated the Cornhuskers were able to hold Maric to six rebounds or less. I highly doubt that a Texas team lacking an inside presence will keep the 6’11” center from getting his boards, so it is important to try to at least keep those rebounds from becoming easy offensive putbacks.

The only player that gives more than 30 minutes a game for Coach Sadler is senior guard Charles Richardson, Jr. The seasoned floor general is a pass-first player, logging over five assists a game while only scoring about eight. He is also active on the defensive end, swiping more than two balls per game, good enough for a top 100 individual ranking when adjusted to reflect possessions played.

Although nearly half of the offense is from two-point field goals, Nebraska is still no slouch when it comes to three-point shooting. Senior Marcus Perry is only taking five a game, but is hitting them over 45% of the time. Ryan Anderson, Jay-R Strowbridge, and Paul Velander are also shooting above 40% from behind the arc, but only combine to take 2.5 trey attempts per game. While it’s going to be incredibly important to stop the inside game of Nebraska, the Horns can’t afford to forget about the outside threat too often.

While I don’t like how we match up with Nebraska on defense, they are going to have the exact same problem when we have the ball. Their matchup problem is obviously phenom Kevin Durant. While Maric is a great shot blocker down low, there isn’t a player on Big Red that should be able to shut down KD. Nebraska may learn from Villanova and work in some double teams to deny Durant the drive to the basket, but that will open up our other players around the court.

KD should easily get his points against this team, but the key for the Horns is to see a return of the offense. In Philadelphia, the team stood around, refused to get themselves open, and relied on D.J. Augustin to penetrate and go to the rack. That needs to change tonight if Texas wants a comfortable victory.

Without a doubt, Damion James will be important tonight for the Horns. Texas lacks anything resembling an inside presence, and a lot of the pressure will fall on Damion’s shoulders as they take on the giant Maric. Damion needs to keep himself out of foul trouble and stay competitive on the glass, while Connor Atchley will have to provide a few serviceable minutes in relief. If James does happen to get into foul trouble and Atchley is needed for more significant minutes, I fear a huge, huge game from Maric.

The subplot that everyone is probably tired of hearing about by this point is the homecoming of freshman Matt Hill. He was named Mr. Basketball in his final season at Southeast High School in Lincoln and will be playing in front of his hometown family and friends for the first time since last spring. I’m not sure that Matt is going to see much playing time after his rough outing on Saturday, and I’m not really sure that he’d want his family to see him match up with Nebraska’s inside play. Regardless, it’s a nice story and it’s going to be good for the kid to see his old stomping grounds in the middle of a tough road stretch.

Game is televised on FSN in Nebraska and Texas, although it is a market-by-market thing here in the Lone Star State. Check out TV clearance info from TexasSports.com to find out if it’s on in your area. For now, I’m off to ABIA and the land of the frozen corn.