After a surprisingly strong non-conference campaign, the Texas Longhorns are ready to tip off against tougher competition in the Big 12. The Horns — who are the sixth-youngest team in Division I, according to Ken Pomeroy — reeled off 11 wins in 13 non-conference games, including an impressive road victory against a talented, albeit inconsistent, North Carolina team.

Texas was not the only surprise team in the Big 12, though. Their opponents in tonight’s conference opener, the Oklahoma Sooners, have also posted an 11-2 mark. After losing three starters from last year’s team that went to the NCAA tournament, Oklahoma was expected to be a middle-of-the-pack team that might hang around on the bubble. Although the Sooners will probably still finish in the middle of the table in a fairly loaded Big 12, they have shown that even the top-tier teams in the league should be worried about playing them.

If the Sooners are truly going to live up to the new expectations they built in non-conference play, they will have to overcome some long odds in the first few weeks of the season. League schedule-makers did Lon Kruger no favors, giving the Sooners road trips to Texas, Kansas State, and Baylor in their first five games, while tabbing Kansas and Iowa State as the teams to visit Lloyd-Noble during that stretch.

Making an early statement in the Big 12 would be quite impressive for OU, given that opening gauntlet. Pomeroy gives the Sooners odds of no greater than 39% to win any of their first five games, with OU having a 32% chance to win tonight’s tilt in Austin, their most-winnable of the three road games. Looking at the cumulative odds for that stretch shows that Pomeroy gives the Sooners a 15% chance to be sitting at 0-5 in league play on January 19th.

By the numbers

Texas fans have seen some up-tempo basketball from the Horns this season, but it has been nothing compared to the track meets going on in Norman. Oklahoma has the ninth-fasted adjusted tempo in D-I hoops, according to Pomeroy, squeezing in 74.6 possessions per game. With the Horns having 72 possessions per game, fans should be treated to some exciting, up-and-down action tonight.

Oklahoma plays with a four-out, one-in look, but the team still has fared pretty well on the offensive glass. The Sooners have reclaimed nearly 35% of their missed shots, thanks in large part to guards and wings that rebound really well for their size. Oklahoma did have trouble when they played a much larger Michigan State team, as they won only 20.5% of their offensive rebounding chances in that game. Against the size of Texas’ frontcourt, OU could face similar struggles tonight.

Keeping the Sooners away from offensive rebounds will be especially important for Texas tonight because Oklahoma generally doesn’t miss very many shots to begin with. OU’s effective field-goal percentage of 53% ranks them 56th in the country, and it’s not a number inflated by layups. OU has a handful of good shooters who can knock down midrange looks and they are also accurate behind the arc, even though a long-range attack isn’t a key aspect of their gameplans.

All told, the Sooners score an adjusted 1.14 points per possession. Although their defensive numbers of 1.032 adjusted PPP are just a shade below the national average, that per-possession disparity adds up in a hurry when the game is played at Oklahoma’s pace. Since Texas loves to play nearly as quickly as the Sooners do, the Longhorn defense will have to step up tonight. The Texas offense is simply not reliable enough to keep up with Oklahoma’s if the Sooners are scoring at their usual rate.

Meet the Sooners

Oklahoma lacks the interior size it enjoyed with Amath M’Baye and Romero Osby last season, so Coach Kruger has adjusted his approach this season. The Sooners typically trot out only one big a time, with former Gonzaga Bulldog Ryan Spangler (No. 00) holding that role in the starting five, despite checking in at just 6’8″.

Spangler plays much bigger than his listed height, providing excellent interior defense and great performances on the glass. The sophomore has scored a ton of hoops on tip-ins this season and has a defensive rebounding rate of 23.8%, ranking him 73rd in Division I. Spangler has also shown the ability to face up opposing forwards and centers and take them off the bounce, but he has yet to prove that he has much of a shot. Teams can easily turn him into a one-dimensional threat by giving him space anytime he leaves the block, but they must always be aware of his location on the floor so they can get a body on him as soon as a shot goes up.

The team’s leading scorer is senior Cameron Clark (No. 21), an exciting player who averages 18.5 points per game, or roughly 21% of OU’s scoring. Clark made a splash as a sophomore before returning to a reserve role on last year’s loaded squad and ultimately ascending to the leadership role in his senior year. He is an incredibly athletic player who has always been known for his highlight-reel dunks, but he also has a good shot that is accurate all over the floor. Although his midrange game can be streaky at times, Clark has made 50% of his threes, but averages less than three of those attempts per game.

Even though Clark can sometimes go through cold spells from the midrange, he always finds a way to score. In Monday night’s overtime loss to Louisiana Tech, the senior was just 7-of-17 from the floor, but repeatedly attacked the basket to earn trips to the line. He also proved just how clutch of a player he can be when he grabbed an airballed three and raced out to the perimeter to hit his own game-tying, fadeaway triple with just 0.6 seconds left on the clock in regulation.

OU’s other aggressive scorer is sophomore guard Buddy Hield (No. 24). Hailing from the Bahamas, Hield has a good understanding of how to vary his speeds to beat the defense, and he has great strength and body control to score through contact. Like all of the Oklahoma guards, Hield is also very good at passing while driving to the hoop, often setting up Spangler underneath or kicking out to open teammates for midrange jumpers or threes.

Freshman point guard Jordan Woodard (No. 10) has been very impressive in his first year at Oklahoma, but he is coming off of the roughest outing of his young career. In the loss to Louisiana Tech, Woodard coughed it up eight times against just two assists, and made only 31% of his shots. Typically, he is another aggressive perimeter player for the Sooners, repeatedly attacking the rim for easy points or trips to the free throw line. Like Hield, Woodard’s driving ability often opens things up for little dumpoffs in the paint or kickouts to open teammates, and his personal assist rate of 26.9% ranks him in the Top 200 nationally.

Sophomore guard Isaiah Cousins (No. 11) rounds out the starting five for Oklahoma, and he is yet another solid shooter for the Sooners. He doesn’t take many three-point attempts, but has made 41.4% of his tries this season. Understandably, Cousins fires up a few more from long range when he’s feeling it, so he usually knocks down two or three if he makes any.

Cousins is also an excellent defender, thanks to quick hands, good footwork, and length that can clog passing lanes and make it tough for smaller guards. He often comes up with a nice swipe or two in each game by knocking it away from an oblivious rebounder or by stripping opponents when providing help defense. Many teams have been flustered by Oklahoma’s active defense, and Cousins’ skills on that end of the court are a big reason why.

Keys to the game

1) Limit penetration – Although they have good shooters, everything starts with dribble penetration for the Sooners. If Texas can limit the number of times Oklahoma beats them with the bounce, it forces the Sooners into taking challenged jumpers instead of allowing wide-open looks on kickouts. The Sooners still have the shooters to knock down some of those tough looks, but if the Longhorns want to keep Oklahoma from lighting up the scoreboard, they have to keep the OU guards in front of them.

2) Win transition battle – Both teams like to get the ball up the court in a hurry and score easy points before the defense is set, so tonight’s game could very well come down to which team is able to get more fast break buckets. The Longhorn defense can’t afford to give up transition hoops to an offense that is already going to be tough to stop, and their offense certainly needs to get as many points as it can without having to score in the half-court.

3) Exploit size advantage – The Longhorns are going to enjoy a definitive size advantage in this one, although they will likely have to use Cameron Ridley in short spurts thanks to the tempo of the game. Exploiting that size advantage is easier said than done, however. Oklahoma loves to trap and swarm everywhere on the court, but especially on the blocks. The Texas bigs have had issues this season with slow decision-making, something that will be deadly against a pressure defense.

Not only do the Longhorn bigs need to be quick and decisive with the ball on the block, but they will also need to contribute in the pick-and-roll game. Clark will likely be tasked with guarding Jonathan Holmes or Connor Lammert, which is already a size mismatch in favor of Texas. Add in OU’s preference for switching on ball screens, and Texas has a great opportunity to get Lammert and Holmes quite a few points as they crash to the hoop against smaller guards.

The Texas Longhorns shattered pre-season expectations when they ran out to a 9-1 start this season. Even with that stellar start, there were still doubts about how the team would perform when facing quality competition. The young team needed comebacks to earn many of their early-season victories against mid-major foes, and they melted down in the final minutes of a road game against Temple before stealing victory on a last-second three by Javan Felix.

Wednesday night, the Longhorns fired a warning shot to the doubters and the rest of the Big 12, pushing North Carolina around in their own house to earn a quality road upset. The win didn’t answer all questions, however. North Carolina has been up-and-down all season, and their 24-for-47 mark at the line played a massive role in Texas’ win. Meanwhile, the Longhorns again had to cling to their lead in the final minutes, once again giving up a comfortable advantage, as they had done in Philadelphia.

This afternoon, Texas gets another chance to send a strong message when it hosts Michigan State at the Erwin Center. The Spartans have only one blemish on their record, a home loss to those North Carolina Tar Heels that Texas knocked off just days ago. The Spartans came out flat in that one, letting Carolina set the tone physically. A valiant first-half comeback leveled things at the break, but as the team battled through a slew of injuries, the Heels pulled away in the second half.

Those injuries have been a theme for Michigan State over the last few weeks. Big man Matt Costello (No. 10) has been fighting mononucleosis and has missed the last two games. Although he was already dealing with the illness and missed the start against North Carolina, Costello still made a major impact with his effort and hustle in 17 minutes on the court.

Point guard Keith Appling (No. 11) injured his hip just before half against the Tar Heels, coming down hard after he went up to block a shot. He has not missed any games due to the injury, but Coach Tom Izzo limited him to just 27 minutes in an easy, blowout win over North Florida on Tuesday.

Two guard Gary Harris (No. 14) has been plagued by an ankle injury, which he aggravated in the loss to UNC. Harris had missed the prior game against Mount St. Mary’s and then turned it while trying to drive the lane against Carolina. He has been held out of the last two games, but is expected to be back in the starting lineup this afternoon.

Numbers to know

The Spartans have a Top 50 offense according to Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, and unselfishness is a big reason why. Michigan State scores a raw 1.13 points per possession, and the team logs an assist on nearly 65% of its baskets, which ranks them ninth in Division I.

The Spartans shoot the ball well and don’t turn it over, which makes up for the fact that their offensive rebounding numbers are very average for an Izzo team. MSU reclaims just 31.1% of their missed shots, but make more than 37% of their tries from behind the arc and nearly 54% inside it. Although the Spartans aren’t extending possessions, they oftentimes don’t even need a second shot. Their miserly turnover rate of 15.8% also keeps wasted possessions to a minimum.

On the other end of the floor, Michigan State has the seventh-best defense in the country when ranked by adjusted efficiency. The Spartans hold opponents to just 0.92 adjusted points per possession, but most impressively, they do it without fouling. Michigan State’s defensive free-throw rate of 32.2% is ranked 38th in Division I, yet they still have an 11% steal rate than ranks in the Top 50. They challenge shots and force bad looks, and they do sound work on the defensive glass, limiting opponents to reclaiming only 27.8% of their offensive-rebounding opportunities.

Players to watch

Every player who has stayed at Michigan State for four years during Izzo’s tenure has made it to a Final Four, so for senior point guard Appling and senior forward Adreian Payne (No. 5), the goal is clear — Arlington or bust.

Appling is the one who makes the Michigan State offense hum with his excellent court vision, and he’s also the trigger man on a very good transition game. Appling immediately looks up after defensive stops to scope out opportunities to push the pace.

In the past, the point guard has struggled with turnovers, but he has made improvements in that department each season. This year, his 15.7% turnover rate is at the lowest point in his career, while his assist rate of 27.7% is also a new career high. While he can still try to force questionable three-pointers when the team is struggling, his overall decision-making is solid.

Payne, meanwhile, has developed into a stretch forward who is a handful for opposing teams to contain. He now is a consistent threat beyond the arc, making the pick-and-pop a viable play for the Spartans. After taking just three three-point attempts in his first two seasons, Payne knocked down 38.1% of his 42 attempts last season and is on pace for more than 100 attempts this year. Not only did the big man up the volume of his shots this year, but he has also become incredibly deadly, sinking nearly 47% of his tries.

That outside threat forces defenders to shadow him to the perimeter, where Payne can also put the ball on the floor and beat other forwards to the rim. That limits his effectiveness on the offensive glass, but his size and instincts make him a vacuum on the other end. Payne’s defensive-rebounding rate of 23.1% ranks him among the top 100 players in D-I.

While Harris is expected back from his ankle injury today, his effectiveness will be key for the Spartans. After knocking down more than 41% of his three-point attempts as a freshman, Harris has made just 27.6% this year, and only 25.8% in his last three games. Some of that decrease is surely due to the ankle issues, but it is also a result of opponents now having a year of film on the sophomore.

A big part of Harris’ game is being able to shot fake against tight perimeter defense and then blowing by for a wide-open midrange jumper or a layup. Until he can get off the schneid this season, opponents can give him a little space and take away that offensive weapon. Of course, if he’s lacking burst thanks to the ankle problems, opponents would also have the luxury of being able to challenge Harris’ threes and not have to worry about him beating them for open midrange looks.

Keys to the game

1) Challenge shooters – North Carolina was able to give Michigan State fits early in their match-up simply by getting pressure on the ball and sticking close to shooters. Texas can easily do the same thing this afternoon, but also must avoid their bad habit of biting on shot fakes. If the Longhorns can stay on the ground and in position while harassing the Spartan shooters, their strong defensive rebounding should lead to quite a few one-shot possessions.

2) Push the tempo – Michigan State’s halfcourt defense is one of the best in the country, which is especially troubling for a Texas team that lacks a true perimeter threat and often stalls out in halfcourt sets. Texas likely will not force many turnovers by the Spartans, so the team has to be looking for opportunities to push the tempo and get easy buckets off of Michigan State misses.

3) Stop the ball in the open court – The Spartans are also going to be looking for opportunities to catch Texas napping, so the Longhorns must have their heads up and be ready to meet Appling beyond the perimeter. It is already going to be tough enough to slow down Michigan State’s offensive attack, so the Horns cannot afford to give up easy points because no one stops the ball.

The Texas Longhorns are back in action tonight at the Erwin Center, hosting Texas State in a game that has all the ingredients for a letdown performance. The Horns are coming off of a thrilling overtime win at Temple last Saturday, in which Javan Felix hit a clutch three with just seconds left to earn the win. Since then, the players have had a week off to deal with final exams, and now face a Bobcat team that should have no chance for an upset. With massive tests against North Carolina and Michigan State looming in the next week, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see a lackluster effort from the Horns tonight.

By the numbers

Texas State comes in sporting a disappointing 3-6 mark, with one of those wins coming on Wednesday against Division II foe Cedarville. The Bobcats are in the midst of a major culture change under new coach Danny Kaspar, who was famous for stifling defense at Stephen F. Austin. Texas State, on the other hand, was practically allergic to defense under old coach Doug Davalos, and the team always played at a breakneck pace. The Bobcats finished in the top seven of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted tempo rankings in each of Coach Davalos’ seven seasons. This year, Texas State is ranked 314th out of 351 Division I teams in that department.

It’s going to be a long process for Kaspar to get the Texas State program to the level at which he had the Lumberjacks. Through the first nine games of his tenure, the Bobcats are in the bottom third of D-I hoops in both adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency. They are seventh-worst in the nation at defending the three-point line, with opponents hitting more than 43% of their attempts. On the offensive end, they turn it over roughly once in every five possessions, and rarely manage to get to the free-throw line. Earning just three trips for every ten field-goal attempts ranks Texas State as the 31st-worst D-I team in free-throw rate.

Meet the Bobcats

To say Texas State relies heavily on senior forward Joel Wright (No. 25) would be a significant understatement. Wright’s usage rate of 35.7% is second-highest in the country, and he takes more than 33% of his team’s shots when he is on the floor. He can score in a variety of ways, as he can easily attack with the bounce from the perimeter, moves well without the ball, and has a nose for offensive rebounds. He also has shown an ability to knock down triples consistently, but he only takes a few from beyond the arc each game.

Unfortunately, with Wright the only reliable scorer on the team, he often forces things. He repeatedly takes on multiple defenders by himself in face up situations, rather than probing and drawing the extra defenders before hitting teammates. He also fails to exploit opponents who double him on the catch near the paint, missing opportunities to set up teammates with kickouts.

One player who should help take the load off of Wright this season is JUCO transfer Emani Gant (No. 21), who has a great post game despite being listed at just 6’8″. He makes strong, confident moves when he gets the ball down low, not allowing teams enough time to challenge him with help defense. His spin moves are smooth and he has a great ability to finish near the rim.

Another newcomer that will likely be a big part of Kaspar’s program-building project is freshman forward Kavin Gilder-Tilbury (No. 1). He came off the bench in the team’s first eight games, but earned the start in Wednesday’s win over Cedarville. Gilder-Tilbury has a great jumpshot that he can hit all over the court, but he has been especially hot from long range. He has made 14 of 29 from beyond the arc, and has taken just more than half of his total attempts from long range.

Guard Wesley Davis (No. 10) started most of the team’s games last year, but found himself coming off the bench in this season’s opener at Houston. His ability to put the ball on the floor and get to the rim has made him one of the top scorers on an offensively-challenged team, and it put him back in the starting lineup for every game since that season-opener.

Joining Davis in the backcourt is point guard Phil Hawkins (No. 0), a senior who is being trusted to implement Kaspar’s new, patient style of play. His assist rate is actually lower than his turnover rate, a stat that not only underscores how the Bobcats have struggled to score, but also serves as a reminder of Wright’s preference for trying to beat guys one-on-one. If Texas State is going to find success in the Sun Belt, they will have to get away from the mindset of dumping it in to Wright and letting him work and instead have Hawkins step up as more of a leader at the point.

Keys to the Game

1) Frustrate Wright – Although Wright is going to get his points against Texas, the Longhorns can easily force him to play into their hands. Wright often fails to identify help defense — or is perhaps just overly confident he can beat two and three defenders at once — and will repeatedly drive against sound, established defense. If the Longhorns give him just enough space to still be able to close out on jumpers and are also ready to provide the interior help that has made them dominant around the paint, Wright will likely make quite a few mistakes. When one player ends more than 35% of his team’s possessions, getting him to waste some of those on bad shots and turnovers is a very easy way to win.

2) Score in transition – Old habits die hard, and Texas State is still learning how to actually play Kaspar-style defense. The Bobcats often fail to stop transition, not only after missed shots, but even after their own makes, too. The Longhorns have used an up-tempo attack all season long, and they have scored a nice chunk of points in the transition game. Taking advantage of Texas State’s defensive lapses should give Texas quite a few easy hoops tonight.

3) Exploit size advantage inside – The Bobcats two tallest players, Gant and seldom-used Gordon Ball (No. 31), are listed at just 6’8″. The Longhorns, meanwhile, have four rotation guys taller than that, and are ranked 21st nationally in defensive rebounding percentage and 22nd in offensive rebounding percentage. If Texas continues that kind of dominance against a much smaller Texas State team, they should limit the Bobcats to numerous one-shot possessions and also earn quite a few second-chance points of their own. That size advantage should also make it very difficult for Texas State to score inside and should turn them into a jump-shooting team.

The Texas Longhorns face their first road test of the season this afternoon, as they travel to Philadelphia to take on Temple in an off-campus game at Wells Fargo Arena. I’m currently in Puerto Rico to compete in participate in Great Urban Race Nationals, which means that not only will this be the first road game I’ve missed since March of 2006, but also that you’re getting an incredibly abbreviated look at the Owls.

After losing five players from last year’s squad that lost in the NCAA tournament’s round of 32, Temple is now led by Anthony Lee (No. 3), a 6’9″ forward who is a handful in the post. Although he prefers to go over his right shoulder and score with a little left-handed hook, Lee has strong post moves in both directions and is an outstanding rebounder, especially on the defensive glass.

Point guard Will Cummings (No. 2) is a quick guard who loves to attack the rim and can easily slither through traffic to get there. With Temple’s constant motion and multiple screens off the ball, he’s also a great asset thanks to his timely passes that hit those cutters in the perfect position to score.

Sophomore guard Quenton DeCosey (No. 25) is a smooth ballhandler who can get to the rack in a hurry with his long strides. He has made only 33% of his triples and his mid-range game is wildly inconsistent, so Texas would be best served by giving him some space near the arc. DeCosey also has a tendency to dribble the air out of the ball and force passes, so he can be just as frustrating at times for Temple fans as he is exhilirating at others.

The X-factor in today’s game could be Dalton Pepper (No. 32), a 6’5″ guard who can light it up in a hurry. He needs very little space to get his shot off and is very accurate on the quick catch-and-shoot coming off of the numerous aforementioned screens. He’s been a streaky scorer, but still averages 16 points per game.

Keys to the game

1) Take advantage of second chances – Temple has had issues locking down the defensive glass this season, which is great news for a Texas team that is among the best nationally when it comes to grabbing offensive boards. Although the Owls will have the size advantage in the backcourt and on the wings, the Texas frontcourt should still get its share of short-range opportunities and tip-ins after their own missed shots. If the Longhorns can convert these extra chances into points, they should have a shot at the road win today.

2) Push the tempo after defensive boards – The Texas offense has gone through some dry spells in the half-court set this season. Fortunately, Temple prefers to play a man defense, and the Longhorns have had their greatest issues against the zone. Still, looking up after defensive boards for the quick strike downcourt will keep the Texas offense humming. Since the Owls hardly ever turn the ball over, pushing after defensive boards will be Texas’ only good chance at getting transition points.

3) Make free throws – This might seem like a stupid thing to include in the Keys to the Game, but after an awful outing in which Texas made just 15 of 29 against Vanderbilt, it deserves a mention. Compounding the problem is the fact that the Owls send opponents to the line fairly frequently, with a free-throw rate that is just outside of the nation’s bottom 20%. If Texas leaves a bunch of points at the line again this afternoon, it will be very tough to escape Philly with a road win.

Despite preseason expectations of doom and gloom on the Forty Acres, Rick Barnes and the Texas Longhorns have quietly taken care of business in the first month of the season. Although it took a fair number of second-half comebacks, the young Longhorns are off to the program’s best start since 2011.

While the Longhorns have beaten some solid mid-major opponents and took a very good BYU team to the wire, they have yet to take care of good competition. The next three weeks will provide Texas a chance to do just that, with road games against Temple and North Carolina to go along with a home tilt against top-ranked Michigan State. Tonight serves as a good warm-up for that tough slate, as the Horns host a Vanderbilt team expected to finish in the middle of the SEC pack.

Vandy sits at 4-2 coming into the game, with both losses reminding Commodore fans of the many frustrating ways their team lost last season. At Butler, Vanderbilt had a chance to win at the end of regulation, but gave it away on a travel and then wilted in overtime. Facing Providence in the Paradise Jam just three days later, the Commodores blew a 16-point lead with 10 minutes left. Vandy scored just one basket down the stretch, allowing the Friars to go on a 27-4 closing run to win the game.

By the Numbers

Vanderbilt has upped the tempo considerably this season, although that’s not saying much. Last year’s squad was one of the 20 slowest in the country, so this Commodore team is really just closer to the national average. Vandy is very patient with the basketball in the half-court, but they are always looking for opportunities to push the tempo after defensive rebounds. For a Texas team that has taken some poor shots and fueled opponents’ transition games, that could be a problem.

The Commodores love to spread the floor out and attack with the bounce, especially off of ball screens by the forwards and centers. While last year’s team also frequently fired it up from the perimeter, the summer departure of Kevin Bright has cut into Vandy’s long-range attack. The ‘Dores still have a good bunch of long-range shooters, but they have gone from taking almost 44% of their attempts from beyond the arc last season to shooting threes just 29% of the time this year.

One statistical category which could swing tonight’s result is the turnover department. Vanderbilt has frequently struggled at controlling the basketball, with errant passes often costing them possessions. Those problems played a key role in the meltdown against Providence, and it has led the team to waste 19.5% of their possessions on the year. Against a Texas team that thrives on the fast break, Vanderbilt has to avoid those same mistakes, especially those of the live-ball variety.

On the other end, the Commodores also don’t force their opponents into miscues, as Vandy’s defense causes turnovers just 14% of the time. Texas has done a pretty good job hanging on to the ball, especially with such a young lineup. If Vandy is wasting their own possessions and unable to get them back from Texas, it could be difficult for the ‘Dores to pull off the road win.

Finally, we’d like to provide a PSA for viewers of tonight’s game. While it has been extremely difficult to watch the Longhorns stumble through their attempts at the free throw line, this one is going to be painful to watch at both charity stripes. Vandy has actually posted an even worse free-throw mark than Texas, hitting just 60% of their attempts on the year. With Texas making only 61.4% of their own free throws, it is going to be an adventure every time these teams head to the line.

Meet the Commodores

Vanderbilt is led by a sophomore transfer who is going to have quite a few fans in the house tonight. Eric McClellan (No. 1) is a product of Austin High, and he arrived in Nashville by way of Tulsa. McClellan is a quick, aggressive guard who consistently gets to the rim. He cradles the ball well when he goes up in traffic, not only avoiding blocked shots and drawing contact, but also making sure he gets the shot off.

The Commodores repeatedly set screens for their point guard on the wings, and he needs very little time or space to get around the corner. However, he’s just 3-for-18 from behind the arc, so Texas should be content to simply go under those picks tonight. Butler also found some success by blitzing those screens with their bigs and forcing McClellan away from the hoop. If the Longhorns can rotate well and help guard the Vandy big men as they roll to the basket, that is also a good option.

Senior guard Kyle Fuller (No. 11) earned the start in the team’s most recent game against Loyola-Marymount, but that marked just his second starting nod in six contests. He typically comes in as the backup point guard, but Coach Stallings has experimented with having his two best ball handlers out there at the same time. Like McClellan, Fuller is also aggressive with the bounce and gets defenders on their heels. He consistently gets to the line and knows how to set up his teammates in a position to score.

In the four games where Fuller came off the bench, Dai-Jon Parker (No. 24) started at the two. Parker is a great long-range shooter who has hit seven of his 14 attempts on the year. That number isn’t skewed too much by the small sample size, as Parker drilled nearly 40% of his threes last season.

Another huge outside threat for Vandy is 6’9″ forward Rod Odom (No. 0). The big man is a very tough matchup, as he spreads the floor with his long-range accuracy, and can also face up opposing bigs and beat them with the bounce. Odom is a perpetual threat to beat teams on the pick-and-pop, and Vandy also likes to free him up with dual downscreens from their other bigs to isolate him at the top of the key.

Texas has one of the worst three-point defenses in the country, and Odom is going to be a particularly tough matchup. The Longhorns don’t have a true three in their lineup who could possibly serve as an undersized defender against Odom, and Jonathan Holmes will likely have issues defending him away from the paint. If the Longhorns once again get torched from the outside tonight, it will likely be Odom holding the flamethrower.

Junior James Siakam is a 6’7″ forward from Cameroon who really plays more of a power forward role with Odom stretching the floor. Siakam is very strong and has no problems posting up, despite his size. He is incredibly active on the glass and has a nice face-up game, but sometimes gets a little too excited when he’s ready to make a move. Siakam has been tagged with a few travels this season when trying to pump fake his defender before a drive.

In the middle, junior Josh Henderson (No. 40) has steadily improved his game. He really came on late last year, and appears to have put in even more hard work during the offseason. Henderson can knock down midrange jumpers, and while he sometimes struggles with making the easiest, short-range stuff, he does have a solid toolbox of post moves. The 6’11” big man is always setting screens on the perimeter, and he makes good cuts to the hoop for the pick-and-roll option.

Freshman Damian Jones (No. 30) has recently supplanted Henderson in the starting lineup, and it’s easy to see why Coach Stallings is excited about this kid. Jones chose Vandy over the likes of Florida, Duke, and Oklahoma State, and the 6’10”, 235-pound Louisiana native has a ton of potential.

Jones is already showing off good moves in the post, but he still has to work on his defense. He has been caught biting hard on pump fakes multiple times and his defensive miscues have led him to average more than seven fouls per 40 minutes. When he can improve his defense and keep himself on the court for more minutes, Jones is going to be a difference-maker in the SEC.

Vandy also has another pair of options in the middle, but neither are getting a ton of minutes this season. Luke Kornet (No. 3) is a 7-foot freshman who is still adjusting to the fact that he’s grown nine inches since starting his senior year of high school. Since he was just 6’3″ less than two years ago, Kornet has a great outside shot and can really stretch the defense. As he adds some muscle and gets used to his body, the freshman will easily command more playing time.

Shelby Moats (No. 34) is the other reserve forward for Vandy, but his effectiveness is limited. He is having trouble adjusting to the new rules emphasis on screens, and has picked up a few offensive fouls as a result. He lacks confidence with the ball and doesn’t keep it high enough in the paint, making it difficult for him to score inside. Moats is averaging less than a point in 8.7 minutes per game, and it’s unlikely he’ll have much of a role this season with Henderson, Jones, and Kornet all looking significantly better.

Keys to the Game

1) Limit dribble penetration – Texas is going to face hundreds of screens tonight as the Commodores work to get their guards free for drives to the rim. The Longhorns must prevent McClellan and Fuller from getting easy penetration against the defense, as so much of the Vanderbilt offense stems from their playmaking. Texas should absolutely not go over screens for McClellan, and the interior defense must react quickly and offer timely help on the situations where McClellan and Fuller do spring free.

2) Deny Odom and Parker on the perimeter – Texas has one of the nation’s worst three-point defenses, and Odom and Parker are two players who can easily exploit that. Although Odom provides a very difficult matchup for the Horns, they cannot afford to give him open looks from outside. Parker is not the same matchup problem that Odom is, so the Texas guards need to stick close to him as he roams around the arc.

3) Get the easy points in transition – Vanderbilt has frequently turned it over, which gives Texas a great opportunity to avoid facing a tough Commodore defense in half-court sets. Looking up after defensive rebounds can also give the Horns that same opportunity. If Texas can turn those Vanderbilt miscues into easy points and push the tempo after Commodore misses, they can make it very difficult for Vandy to escape Austin with a road win.