The Texas Longhorns return home after a hard-fought road victory against Baylor, sitting just a game out of first place in the Big 12 with a 4-1 mark. Their waiting opponents are the Kansas State Wildcats, a team that is much better than their 2-4 conference record would indicate. But lest my dear readers think I am playing Chicken Little with a KSU team that lost to Texas by nine at home last season even with Michael Beasley and Bill Walker — two players who will not be on their roster today — a quick glance at Kansas State’s strengths should support my claims.

Their strengths

The Wildcats rebound the ball well, particularly on the offensive glass. And for a Texas team that doesn’t score a ton of points and relies upon its defense to win games, there is nothing more frightening than the thought of numerous solid defensive stands being wiped away as KSU swipes an offensive board and adds a possession. The Wildcats are grabbing 42.8% of their offensive rebounding opportunities, which is good for second-best in the nation. The Longhorns, meanwhile, are already slightly below-average in allowing their opponents to grab those offensive rebounds, giving them up on 32.3% of the opportunities. If Texas cannot keep KSU off the offensive glass, this game will be much closer than it should be, and the Wildcats could even pull off their second straight win at the Frank Erwin Center.

Kansas State also shoots the ball well from outside, a fact that has kept them competitive in games against much better teams such as Oklahoma. The Wildcats are hitting 36% of their shots from long range, led by sixth man Fred Brown, who has knocked down 43% of his attempts on the year. Texas has improved their three-point defense as the year has progressed, but it should be noted that in the Longhorns’ four losses this season, opponents have hit 38% of their attempts from long range.

The glaring weakness

The one obvious problem that Kansas State has, though, is an inability to handle the basketball. Against Kansas, they turned it over eight times in the first seven minutes and fell behind 18-0 before you could say “Jim Wooldridge in a neck brace.” After hanging with Oklahoma for a half in the conference opener, KSU turned the ball over on seven straight possessions to give the game away. And in a 22-point road loss to Nebraska two weeks ago, the Wildcats coughed it up twenty-five times. Twenty-freakin-five.

Jacob Pullen is the biggest offender on the team, with 62 turnovers logged so far while only dishing out 68 assists. For a team with a lack of a true post player inside, this type of carelessness by the guards is highly problematic. Even point guard Denis Clemente has an awful assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.4-to-1. As often as the Wildcats extend possessions with their great offensive rebounding, they shoot themselves in the foot by giving those same possessions away with poor ball handling.

Keys to the game

As should be clear based on the above paragraphs, Texas has to crash the glass and harass the ball handlers for Kansas State. But they also cannot afford to let KSU push the tempo. The Wildcats run much deeper than Texas, as six players average twenty minutes of playing time, while two others see at least ten minutes a game. Kansas State definitely has the horses to push the transition game, as Denis Clemente is an incredibly fast guard who looks like a water-bug when he scurries coast-to-coast for a layup. Texas is a more talented team, but if KSU can tire the Longhorns out and force Rick Barnes to look further down the bench for fresh bodies, it plays into the hands of Wildcat coach Frank Martin.

In addition, Texas must exploit their strengths inside. While Luis Colon and Jamar Samuels block a lot of shots, they also put their opponents on the free throw line quite often. Kansas State opponents shoot an average of 24 free throws per game, which is nearly one free throw attempt for every two field goal attempts. According to Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, that puts KSU at 333rd in the country out of only 344 Division I teams. Texas must pound it inside, get to the line, and force Martin to use his depth in a reactive fashion as his players pick up fouls.

We’re back in Austin after an absolutely exhausting weekend of basketball and an all-night drive home, and I’m ready to sleep for about 86.3 hours. But first let’s talk a little about the bracket.

While it was certainly disappointing to lose to Kansas in the conference tournament finals again, things worked out incredibly well. If Texas would have earned a 1-seed in Detroit by winning the game, perhaps that loss was the best possible outcome. Texas now has the route of Little Rock-Houston-San Antonio if they win their games, which is reassuringly similar to the Birmingham-San Antonio-New Orleans route that the 2003 Final Four team took.

Oddly enough, I’ve seen Austin Peay play in person this season, as Bear and I stopped in Nashville when we were traveling to the Michigan State game in December. The game was at Belmont that night, and the one memory that stands out most in my mind was how sloppy the Governors were with the ball, nearly choking away a 17 or 18-point lead to the Bruins late in the game. I’ll have to dig up my notes and media info from that one to give a more detailed Austin Peay preview later in the week.

The CBS storyline machine is already working overtime, as former Rick Barnes assistant Frank Haith could coach against his mentor if the Miami Hurricanes and Longhorns both win in the first round… Up in Omaha, it’s a match-up of super freshmen when Michael Beasley and O.J. Mayo tangle. And we also can’t forget that Mayo’s former high school teammate Bill Walker is also on K-State… If Winthrop pulls the first round upset, they could face Notre Dame in the second round, which would be a rematch of the first-round game in Spokane last season where the Eagles upset the Fighting Irish.

Is Wisconsin undervalued as a 3-seed? While they only lost four games this year, their SOS of 61 really paled in comparison to most of the other 2 and 3-seeds, so moving them up a line might have been a stretch. But when you consider the road awaiting Duke in this tournament, I’m not sure any of the 3-seeds would’ve wanted to be bumped up. If they get by Belmont, the Blue Devils have to face the winner of West Virginia and Arizona, which is one hell of a second-round test for a 2-seed. And if Duke does happen to survive to the second weekend, they get to fly out to Phoenix with a potential Elite Eight game against UCLA awaiting. I guess even the anointed Blue Devils can’t get the sweetheart treatment when they go 5-4 to finish the year.

Have any other thoughts or storylines I missed in this pre-dawn post? Leave them in the comments section below as we talk hoops all week long leading up to the tourney.

Lots and lots of news for the Horns now that the regular season has come to a close. And that starts with the Big 12 conference awards, where Rick Barnes took home Coach of the Year in a season where his Longhorns set a school record for regular season victories. D.J. Augustin was a unanimous selection to the All-Big 12 First Team, while A.J. Abrams and Damion James were named to the second team. The king of hustle, Justin Mason, was named to the All-Defensive Team.

In the latest Bracketology from Joe Lunardi, the Horns are still a 2-seed playing in the Phoenix regional with UCLA as the 1-seed. God forbid this projection actually holds, as good ol’ Joe has a potential second-round match-up for Texas with Arkansas…in Little Rock. Hardcore amateur bracketologists will be happy to know that Joe is now going daily with his picks from until Selection Sunday.

Andy Glockner’s Bubble Watch — now also a daily feature — has the Big 12 with three “locks” in Texas, Kansas, and OU. He feels that Baylor and K-State are solidly in, and barring a Bear implosion against Colorado on Thursday, I would have to agree. That leaves A&M in the “work left to do” category, which could be something of a misnomer. As long as the bubble doesn’t contract further with cinderella auto-bids, the Aggies should be fine. But while they don’t actually need another win, they certainly can’t afford to somehow lose to Iowa State.

While everybody is focused on seeds and bubbles, there is still that weekly tradition of the polls, which saw Texas climb to 6th in the AP and 8th in the ESPN/USA Today.

Although there’s no Big Monday, there’s more tournament action from Championship Week tonight. Auto-bids will be handed out in the Southern Conference (8 PM CST, ESPN2), where bubble team fans will be pulling hard for Davidson. At the same time, those nervous folks will be hoping that Gonzaga can stave off San Diego in the WCC Championship (8 PM CST, ESPN). And just underway in Albany, Rider and Siena are battling for the MAAC title on ESPN2.

Although slots four through ten are no longer separated by just a game as they were this time last week, the league is still a complete mess in the middle as the season winds to a close. Thanks to a complete tanking by Kansas State — losers of four straight and five out of six — the Baylor Bears actually control their own destiny in regards to the 3-seed in Kansas City. And with a late-season push, even the Oklahoma State Cowboys are within striking distance of that fourth and final bye in the conference tournament.

Texas Longhorns (11-3)
Remaining games: vs. Nebraska (Tuesday), vs. Oklahoma State (Sunday)
Outlook: The loss to Tech puts the Longhorns in a tie with Kansas once again, but they hold the tiebreaker for the #1 seed in Kansas City thanks to the victory over the Jayhawks last month. The crowds for this week’s games could be abysmal, with the Nebraska tip at 6:30 P.M. and the Oklahoma State game being played during Spring Break.

Kansas Jayhawks (11-3)
Remaining games: vs. Texas Tech (Tonight), at Texas A&M (Saturday)
Outlook: Unless the Longhorns stumble, the best that Kansas can hope for is a split title and the 2-seed in the post-season tournament. But Kansas must match Texas stride-for-stride down the homestretch, and their schedule is admittedly more difficult. Tech has a very slim shot at the NCAAs, but a road win in Lawrence would propel them to the top of the bubble discussion. And with A&M fading fast, their backs will be against the wall when Kansas comes to town on Sunday. KU cannot afford to overlook either one of these two teams.

Baylor Bears (8-6)
Remaining games: vs. Texas A&M (Wednesday), at Texas Tech (Saturday)
Outlook: Thanks to the head-to-head win over K-State, the Bears would claim the 3-seed if they win their remaining two games. But a stumble against A&M or Tech opens the door for the four teams sitting just a game back at 7-7, so Scott Drew’s guard-tastic team has to stay on top of its game this final week.

Kansas State Wildcats (8-6)
Remaining games: vs. Colorado (Tuesday), at Iowa State (Saturday)
Outlook: While Baylor does hold the tiebreaker, the Wildcats have the more manageable schedule this week. The home game against Colorado should finally snap the KSU slide, but this team has struggled all season long on the road and Hilton Coliseum will be a tough place to win on Senior Night. A split this week could drop the ‘Cats all the way from first place at the beginning of February to an opening-round game next Thursday in KC.

Texas A&M Aggies (7-7)
Remaining games: at Baylor (Wednesday), vs. Kansas (Saturday)
Outlook: While the K-State slide might seem monumental, the Aggies are the only team in the country this year who have fallen from the Top 10 to sweating things out on the bubble. A&M managed less than a point a minute in Norman on Saturday, and that simply won’t get the job done against the high-powered offenses of Baylor and Kansas. If Texas A&M wants to feel secure about its place in the NCAAs, they really have to steal that road game in Waco on Wednesday night, one that Longhorn Road Trip will be watching live from the Ferrell Center.

Oklahoma Sooners (7-7)
Remaining games: at Oklahoma State (Wednesday), vs. Missouri (Saturday)
Outlook: Of the four southern teams knotted at 7-7, Oklahoma has the easiest schedule left. The road game against Bedlam rival OSU won’t be easy, but a 9-7 finish and a potential 4-seed is within the grasp of the Sooners.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-7)
Remaining games: vs. Oklahoma (Wednesday), at Texas (Sunday)
Outlook: Raise your hand if you thought OSU would be earning fringe bubble talk with a week left to go in the season. Anyone? Fry? Bueller? The Pokes have a bitch of a finish in Austin on Sunday, but home court in the Bedlam series could put them above .500 in league play for what feels like the first time since Grover Cleveland was in office.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-7)
Remaining games: at Kansas (Tonight), vs. Baylor (Saturday)
Outlook: Pat Knight already has two Top 25 upsets on his nine-game bio, but both of those came in the friendly confines of the United Spirit Arena. This difficult final stretch will test the Red Raiders, and they could easily drop both games and find themselves playing in the dreaded 8-9 game next week.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-8)
Remaining games: at Texas (Tuesday), vs. Colorado (Sunday)
Outlook: After a promising non-conference start, Nebraska fizzled in Big 12 play. Winning three of their last four has them in the mix, but a tough road date with the Longhorns could quickly kill that momentum. The home game against Colorado on Sunday should provide an easy win, setting the Huskers up for potential home games in the NIT.

Missouri Tigers (5-9)
Remaining games: vs. Iowa State (Wednesday), at Oklahoma (Saturday)
Outlook: A possible split to finish the season for the Tigers, who have to be happy with even five conference wins after their entire team decided to have a brawl in a nightclub. If only they’d decided to have their Ultimate Fighting Championship prior to the game with Texas…

Iowa State Cyclones (4-10)
Remaining games: at Missouri (Wednesday), vs. Kansas State (Saturday)
Outlook: With K-State struggling on the road, the Cyclones could put a nice capper on a disappointing season by pulling off the home upset on Jiri Hubalek’s senior day. While the season has generally been a wash, the young talent that Coach McDermott has on-board could mean that great things will be happening in Ames in the near future.

Colorado Buffaloes (3-11)
Remaining games: at Kansas State (Tuesday), at Nebraska (Sunday)
Outlook: Richard Roby will finally exhaust his eligibility. It’s about damned time.

The Longhorns come into Manhattan, Kansas tonight riding their first-ever seven-game conference winning streak and looking for their first undefeated February since the 1960’s. Standing in their way are the Kansas State Wildcats, a very scary team with a potential National Player of the Year. They have not lost a home game in conference play, and only dropped an overtime game against Oregon in their non-conference home slate.

By the numbers

The Wildcats have a fairly efficient offense that can really push the tempo. According to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics, K-State is the 18th-fastest team in the country and the 17th-most efficient. Their best statistical measure, though, comes on the offensive glass, where they are the top rated team in the nation. Texas has occasionally struggled with keeping big teams from getting second chances in the half-court, so they’ll have to keep K-State off the glass in this one.

The 1-2 punch

By now, everyone has heard of Michael Beasley, the man who could be the second-consecutive freshman to win National Player of the Year. Against Baylor on Saturday, he scored a league-record 44 points against the Bears in a losing effort. He’s an incredibly tough player to defend because he can score in the post, knock down mid-range jumpers, and sink the three-pointer with ease. Even when the D is tight on B-Easy, he often can launch lightning-quick pull-back Js with little space. The Longhorns are going to have their hands full with Beasley, but perhaps could learn from the box-and-one look that the Huskers threw at him on Wednesday night, in a game where they held him to a mere mortal line of 17 points and 10 boards.

Bill Walker is the next-best player on Kansas State, but he’s more than used to being second fiddle despite his great talent. In high school, he was the second-in-command to O.J. Mayo and is more than happy chipping in double-digit points with the defenses keyed on his high-powered teammates. The world-famous Towel Pisser is averaging 17 points and 7 boards per game, and his play has reached a new level in Big 12 games. Although he claims he can’t jump quite as high as he did prior to last year’s ACL injury, he still has a sweet three-point stroke and can quickly drive and dunk on defenders who over-pursue on the perimeter.

What to look for

1) Can Texas hang with the ‘Cats on the glass? They’ve looked really good in the rebounding department the last few weeks, but K-State is as solid as they get. Texas cannot afford to give up extra possessions to Martin’s bunch, and they also cannot afford to settle for perimeter shots of their own without crashing the boards.

2) How will Texas respond to the crowd? The Longhorns need to come out firing on all cylinders and cannot afford to get behind early. Reports from our KSU friends say that the student line is a bit soft this week, which is to be expected following the disappointing road losses to Nebraska and Baylor. But the fact of the matter is that Bramlage Coliseum is one of the most underrated home court advantages in the country, and it will still be rocking tonight. Texas cannot afford to let the crowd fuel the team like the Missouri fans did back in January.

3) What will the role players do? Beast-ley and Walker will both get their points, but it’s a question of how the rest of the ‘Cats do tonight. The Longhorns are a high-scoring team that can handle a 30+ game from Beasley, but if Clent Stewart, Jacob Pullen, and Blake Young play over their heads offensively, Texas could have problems. Rick Barnes’ team obviously must work hard to defend Beasley, but they can’t devote so much attention to him that the rest of the ‘Cats win the game.

This game is going to be the biggest test left for Texas, and was a game that I had penciled in as a loss earlier in the season. The recent play of the Longhorns has made it look much more winnable, but it is still going to be 40 minutes of hell. Vegas has the Wildcats as 3.5 point favorites, while Ken Pomeroy is predicting a 4-point K-State win. If by chance Texas can pull this one out, it is only more fodder for those pushing the Longhorns as a 1-seed in the Big Dance.

Action tips at 8 P.M., so if the Big East decides to finish their game on time, you can catch the action on ESPN.