The Texas Longhorns shattered pre-season expectations when they ran out to a 9-1 start this season. Even with that stellar start, there were still doubts about how the team would perform when facing quality competition. The young team needed comebacks to earn many of their early-season victories against mid-major foes, and they melted down in the final minutes of a road game against Temple before stealing victory on a last-second three by Javan Felix.

Wednesday night, the Longhorns fired a warning shot to the doubters and the rest of the Big 12, pushing North Carolina around in their own house to earn a quality road upset. The win didn’t answer all questions, however. North Carolina has been up-and-down all season, and their 24-for-47 mark at the line played a massive role in Texas’ win. Meanwhile, the Longhorns again had to cling to their lead in the final minutes, once again giving up a comfortable advantage, as they had done in Philadelphia.

This afternoon, Texas gets another chance to send a strong message when it hosts Michigan State at the Erwin Center. The Spartans have only one blemish on their record, a home loss to those North Carolina Tar Heels that Texas knocked off just days ago. The Spartans came out flat in that one, letting Carolina set the tone physically. A valiant first-half comeback leveled things at the break, but as the team battled through a slew of injuries, the Heels pulled away in the second half.

Those injuries have been a theme for Michigan State over the last few weeks. Big man Matt Costello (No. 10) has been fighting mononucleosis and has missed the last two games. Although he was already dealing with the illness and missed the start against North Carolina, Costello still made a major impact with his effort and hustle in 17 minutes on the court.

Point guard Keith Appling (No. 11) injured his hip just before half against the Tar Heels, coming down hard after he went up to block a shot. He has not missed any games due to the injury, but Coach Tom Izzo limited him to just 27 minutes in an easy, blowout win over North Florida on Tuesday.

Two guard Gary Harris (No. 14) has been plagued by an ankle injury, which he aggravated in the loss to UNC. Harris had missed the prior game against Mount St. Mary’s and then turned it while trying to drive the lane against Carolina. He has been held out of the last two games, but is expected to be back in the starting lineup this afternoon.

Numbers to know

The Spartans have a Top 50 offense according to Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, and unselfishness is a big reason why. Michigan State scores a raw 1.13 points per possession, and the team logs an assist on nearly 65% of its baskets, which ranks them ninth in Division I.

The Spartans shoot the ball well and don’t turn it over, which makes up for the fact that their offensive rebounding numbers are very average for an Izzo team. MSU reclaims just 31.1% of their missed shots, but make more than 37% of their tries from behind the arc and nearly 54% inside it. Although the Spartans aren’t extending possessions, they oftentimes don’t even need a second shot. Their miserly turnover rate of 15.8% also keeps wasted possessions to a minimum.

On the other end of the floor, Michigan State has the seventh-best defense in the country when ranked by adjusted efficiency. The Spartans hold opponents to just 0.92 adjusted points per possession, but most impressively, they do it without fouling. Michigan State’s defensive free-throw rate of 32.2% is ranked 38th in Division I, yet they still have an 11% steal rate than ranks in the Top 50. They challenge shots and force bad looks, and they do sound work on the defensive glass, limiting opponents to reclaiming only 27.8% of their offensive-rebounding opportunities.

Players to watch

Every player who has stayed at Michigan State for four years during Izzo’s tenure has made it to a Final Four, so for senior point guard Appling and senior forward Adreian Payne (No. 5), the goal is clear — Arlington or bust.

Appling is the one who makes the Michigan State offense hum with his excellent court vision, and he’s also the trigger man on a very good transition game. Appling immediately looks up after defensive stops to scope out opportunities to push the pace.

In the past, the point guard has struggled with turnovers, but he has made improvements in that department each season. This year, his 15.7% turnover rate is at the lowest point in his career, while his assist rate of 27.7% is also a new career high. While he can still try to force questionable three-pointers when the team is struggling, his overall decision-making is solid.

Payne, meanwhile, has developed into a stretch forward who is a handful for opposing teams to contain. He now is a consistent threat beyond the arc, making the pick-and-pop a viable play for the Spartans. After taking just three three-point attempts in his first two seasons, Payne knocked down 38.1% of his 42 attempts last season and is on pace for more than 100 attempts this year. Not only did the big man up the volume of his shots this year, but he has also become incredibly deadly, sinking nearly 47% of his tries.

That outside threat forces defenders to shadow him to the perimeter, where Payne can also put the ball on the floor and beat other forwards to the rim. That limits his effectiveness on the offensive glass, but his size and instincts make him a vacuum on the other end. Payne’s defensive-rebounding rate of 23.1% ranks him among the top 100 players in D-I.

While Harris is expected back from his ankle injury today, his effectiveness will be key for the Spartans. After knocking down more than 41% of his three-point attempts as a freshman, Harris has made just 27.6% this year, and only 25.8% in his last three games. Some of that decrease is surely due to the ankle issues, but it is also a result of opponents now having a year of film on the sophomore.

A big part of Harris’ game is being able to shot fake against tight perimeter defense and then blowing by for a wide-open midrange jumper or a layup. Until he can get off the schneid this season, opponents can give him a little space and take away that offensive weapon. Of course, if he’s lacking burst thanks to the ankle problems, opponents would also have the luxury of being able to challenge Harris’ threes and not have to worry about him beating them for open midrange looks.

Keys to the game

1) Challenge shooters – North Carolina was able to give Michigan State fits early in their match-up simply by getting pressure on the ball and sticking close to shooters. Texas can easily do the same thing this afternoon, but also must avoid their bad habit of biting on shot fakes. If the Longhorns can stay on the ground and in position while harassing the Spartan shooters, their strong defensive rebounding should lead to quite a few one-shot possessions.

2) Push the tempo – Michigan State’s halfcourt defense is one of the best in the country, which is especially troubling for a Texas team that lacks a true perimeter threat and often stalls out in halfcourt sets. Texas likely will not force many turnovers by the Spartans, so the team has to be looking for opportunities to push the tempo and get easy buckets off of Michigan State misses.

3) Stop the ball in the open court – The Spartans are also going to be looking for opportunities to catch Texas napping, so the Longhorns must have their heads up and be ready to meet Appling beyond the perimeter. It is already going to be tough enough to slow down Michigan State’s offensive attack, so the Horns cannot afford to give up easy points because no one stops the ball.

In front of a raucous crowd of nearly 15,000, the young Texas Longhorns faced their first true road test of the season in East Lansing yesterday afternoon. While they didn’t escape the Breslin Center with an improbable win, the team responded to adversity and battled down to the final minutes in a game that was much tighter than the final score indicated.

The Horns came out of the gate very shaky, hitting just one of their first nine shots, with the make coming on a simple stickback by Jonathan Holmes. Texas turned it over five times in the team’s first ten possessions, giving fans flashbacks to the disastrous start against Georgetown in New York. After eight minutes of play, the Horns had already fallen behind 12-4 and had gone more than seven minutes without a field goal.

This time, the Longhorns didn’t wither under the pressure. The team suddenly heated up from long range and charged into the lead, while Sheldon McClellan woke up late in the half against a Michigan State defense that was keyed in on denying him the ball. He fought through tight defense, earning six free throw attempts as the half wound down, all of which he converted.

The one player Texas couldn’t stop in the first half was Derrick Nix, who had half of his team’s 28 points when they headed to the locker room. He put the Longhorn bigs in foul trouble early, sending Holmes and Cameron Ridley to the bench for extended periods of time. Michigan State continued to feed the big man in the second half, and the rotating Longhorn frontcourt was eaten alive. Nix finished with a career day, scoring 25 points to go with 11 boards. Eleven of his points came at the line, as he hit 84.6% of his free throws, well above his career average of 51%.

With Nix dominating and the Spartans putting on a run, the Longhorns found themselves down by as many as 10 points. Once again, they relied on stout defense down the stretch to hold the Spartans in check while they slowly mounted a comeback. Texas didn’t allow an offensive rebound and forced three turnovers during a seven-minute stretch where they clawed back to within two points of Michigan State. In the end, an inability to score in the clutch allowed the Spartans to slowly pull away over the final two minutes.

What looked good

Once again, the Longhorns were active in setting screens for their shooters, who had to fight through tight defensive pressure on every cut and curl. Texas has been much more active on the offensive end in their last four games, looking like a completely different team than the one that stood around on the court in the Maui Invitational. Javan Felix logged 11 assists on the afternoon, hitting the shooters at the right time for midrange jumpers.

Julien Lewis was the leading scorer for Texas, putting up 16 points for the game. Ten of his points came in the second half, where he repeatedly knocked down tough, contested jumpers in the lane. He was the only Longhorn who could be counted on to consistently score as the game wound down, and his buckets kept Texas in it until the final minutes.

Lewis is much more reliable this season, thanks to his new role as a catch-and-shoot guy. Last year, he often tried to create his own looks, and especially struggled if he couldn’t get going early. Now, Felix and the Horns are working hard to get Lewis open, and his quick release means he doesn’t need much space. The tight defense he is drawing is also opening up opponents to the shot fake and drive. Julien has done this on a few occasions this year, but with future opponents likely to throw additional pressure at him, he’ll have to mix it in even more.

The most important thing for these young Horns to take from this game was the experience. They are learning to respond to adversity and different players are trying to shoulder the load down the stretch. Connor Lammert had a huge bucket in the final minutes, although it appeared to be released after the shot clock had expired. Jonathan Holmes worked hard inside during the comeback push, but had a key hoop wiped out by a controversial charge. Lewis was a workhorse, and even Ioannis Papapetrou added a key three-point play and snagged timely defensive rebounds.

The Longhorns came up short in close games time after time last season, with most of their final possessions turning into an adventure. Texas’ primary option was clearly J’Covan Brown, and many times the late-game sets were simply him clearing out and trying to drive on an isolated defender. Opponents knew that and help defense was quick to respond.

This year, there are more players who are willing to step up and the team has more options. Unfortunately, the Longhorns are still not shooting the ball consistently, so those opportunities are not being converted. Only time will tell if this leads to a repeat of last year’s close-game frustrations, or if some of the youngsters will emerge as heroes and pull out a few tight victories.

What needed work

The player that most observers expected to take over Brown’s go-to role was sophomore Sheldon McClellan. Opponents have put a lot of energy into denying him the ball and making Texas have to work very hard to free him up. It’s been a struggle for Sheldon to get going in most games this year, as he often seems frustrated by the suffocating defense.

While he fought through the pressure late in the first half and earned some trips to the line, he was forcing things from the field all game long. He knocked down only one jumper on the afternoon, a three-pointer during Texas’ first-half run. His other two buckets came on drives to the rim, and he finished with an ugly 3-for-10 line. Most importantly, he missed two technical free throws with Texas down by one in the second half, energizing the crowd and fueling a nine-point run that gave Michigan State its largest lead of the game. He pressed the rest of the way, forcing terrible, off-balance looks.

Sheldon is drawing the bulk of the defensive attention, and it is going to be that way all season long. He has to stop backing down from the challenge and continue to fight for his looks, even when blanketed by top defenders. McClellan also has to start taking the ball to the rack. With defenders right on him as he catches the ball, almost all of his shots are contested. Shot fakes and head fakes will get the defense off balance and open up driving opportunities. Even if help shuts off those lanes, it forces opponents to rotate and will open up looks for his teammates.

Felix also forced things at time, taking some of the luster off of his 11-assist performance. The Texas bigs certainly had major issues handling passes in this game, but sometimes the blame rested on the point guard. Late in the game, Lammert bobbled a pass in the middle of the lane, but Felix had thrown it low and right into the middle of a gaggle of Spartan defenders. Also in the second half, Felix zipped an inbounds pass above the head of Prince Ibeh, which the big man tipped out of bounds. Prince often has trouble handling even easy passes, so a high heater only highlighted that weakness.

Javan also failed to make layups once he got to the rim, a problem that has been a team-wide affair in recent weeks. Felix missed a pair of layups after shaking the defense, and he also lost the ball on the way up in the final possession of the first half. Papapetrou also failed to convert his own open look at the rim after deftly slipping through the Spartan D.

The missed layup was the least of the problems for Papi on Saturday afternoon, however. He once again left a ton of points at the line, making just four of his nine free throw attempts. The Longhorns missed five other free throws, hitting only 58.3% at the stripe. A miss by Lammert also came on the front end of a one-and-one in the second half, essentially costing the team a possible two points. In a game that was close until the final minutes and in which the Spartans made nearly 77% of their free throws, the charity stripe played a huge role.

Even with that many points left at the line, the biggest problem for Texas came in defending the post. Nix and sixth man Adreian Payne had their way with the Longhorn bigs throughout the game, scoring against whoever Texas threw out there. They piled up the fouls on the Texas bigs, limiting both Ridley and Holmes to less than 20 minutes.

Ibeh was the only player to find much success against Nix, blocking two shots in consecutive second-half possessions. Nix was whistled for a technical after the second block as he argued for a foul, but Ibeh could have easily earned his own T for staring down the big man as he sat on the floor. When fighting hard for a win on the road, Ibeh’s preening after a good play could have been disastrous. He has to show some maturity and restraint in the future.

The lack of double teams on Nix was mystifying, as the Spartans had struggled with that at times this year. Michigan State players often forgot to help their big man, abandoning him against the pressure when he was doubled in previous games. In addition, the Spartans’ lack of a consistent midrange game and outside shooting meant that they likely would have struggled to beat Texas with the jumper. Instead, the Longhorns waited to offer post help until after Nix had beat the primary defender, resulting in easy buckets and needless fouls.

If one thing can be taken from the Texas struggles against Nix and Payne, it’s that the post players were forced to defend one-on-one. Against a team like Baylor that has length all over the court, doubling would be much less effective. If the Longhorn frontcourt can learn from their mistakes against MSU, perhaps it will pay off against some of the bigger teams in the Big 12.

Texas will also need to lock down the defensive glass in key situations as they move into conference play. On the whole, the Longhorns did an excellent job closing out defensive possessions with rebounds, limiting the Spartans to an offensive rebounding mark of 31%. The Longhorns performed even better in that category than UConn, Kansas, and Miami did against the Spartans, holding them well below their season average of 37.4%. However, the offensive boards that Michigan State did manage to control often resulted in second chance points. One was a big bucket at the end of the first half, and a clutch three by Keith Appling during Michigan State’s second-half push came after the Spartans reclaimed one of their missed free throws.

Texas has done good work on the defensive glass this season, but has struggled when the game is on the line. An inability to box out late in the UCLA game helped fuel that Bruin comeback, and the second chance points given to Michigan State were crippling. The Longhorns have to maintain their focus and close out defensive possessions with strong rebounds when the pressure is highest.

Finally, it must be noted that once again the turnover bug cost Texas in a big way. Although the Longhorns settled down for a long stretch of the first half, the five early turnovers killed their offense for nearly eight minutes. The team wasted 26.1% of their total possessions with miscues, the worst ball-control performance since the Georgetown game, and the third-worst of the season. It’s been said time and again, but for an offense that already struggles to score points, simply throwing away possessions is a recipe for failure.

Up next: vs. Rice (3-8); Saturday, 1 P.M.

The Texas Longhorns square off with Michigan State this afternoon in East Lansing, wrapping up one of the toughest weeks of the season, both on and off the court. On Wednesday night, Texas pulled off its biggest win of the season, knocking off a ranked North Carolina squad. As the final minutes of the victory ticked away, a Yahoo! report quickly spread through the sports world, breaking the news of a season-long suspension for sophomore point guard Myck Kabongo.

As it turns out, the suspension had been handed down five days prior, on December 14th, and the Texas program was already in the process of appealing the decision. Last night, after the team had already landed in Michigan without their point guard, that suspension was reduced to 23 games. With 11 games having already been served, Kabongo will be available for the final eight regular season games and post-season play.

With all of the off-court distractions, the Longhorns still had to prepare for a very tough test in the form of another talented Spartan team. Tom Izzo’s bunch has not lost to a non-conference opponent at home since Texas stormed out of the Breslin Center with a win in December of 2010. The upperclassmen on the Michigan State roster certainly remember that game, and will be looking for some revenge this afternoon.

By the numbers

As always, Izzo’s team plays nasty defense and is a handful on the glass. Michigan State’s adjusted defensive efficiency is tenth-best in the country according to Ken Pomeroy, allowing opponents just 0.863 points per possession. With the Texas defense ranked fifth in the same metric, fans should be treated to a scrappy battle with a lot of missed shots.

On the glass, the Spartans are in the upper echelon on both ends of the court. They reclaim 37.9% of their own missed shots, ranking them 41st in the country. On defense, they limit opponents to just 27.5% of their offensive rebounding opportunities, a mark that is ranked 36th nationally.

With that prowess on the offensive glass and a pair of imposing players scoring in the paint, the Spartans have a pretty efficient offense this season. Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive efficiency numbers give the Spartans 1.077 points per possession, which ranks them in the Top 50. Michigan State does it nearly all from inside, with only 20.5% of their scoring coming from behind the arc.

Like Texas, the biggest weakness for Michigan State is turnovers. The Spartans end 23% of their possessions with miscues, while the Horns cough it up on 24.4% of their own. If the tough defenses weren’t already going to make it hard to score today, the offenses would still do their part with unforced errors.

Meet the Spartans

The man at the point is junior Keith Appling (No. 11), who is a converted shooting guard. He’s tops on the team with 15 points a game, and his 11.1% defensive rebounding rate is outstanding for a guard.

The Spartans run a ton of ball screens for their point guard, and he takes full advantage. Even though he doesn’t take a ton of threes, Appling can knock it down when opponents go under the screen. When he gets his man on his hip, Appling immediately drives it to the rack and can creatively finish through contact. At times, he’s too aggressive, as he’s picked up quite a few charging fouls while driving the lane.

With Appling at the point, freshman Gary Harris (No. 14) is at his natural position of shooting guard, and it’s allowed him to play major minutes and make a big impact in his short collegiate career. Harris is second on the team with 12.7 points per game and is winning the coach’s favor with good perimeter defense.

Like Appling, Harris is a constant recipient of perimeter ballscreens, but his repertoire is even more robust than Appling’s. He was a running back in high school, so he doesn’t shy away from contact, and loves to score through fouls at the rim. When the defense steps in to draw charges, Harris has a nice floater and a good midrange jumper that he can pull up to drain. He’s also knocking down just over 34% of his three-point looks, hitting about one per game.

Tom Izzo has lamented the lack of a shooter on his interior-oriented team, and it’s clear that Harris is one of the best options to step into that role. He has a good shot and can get hot in a hurry, but has yet to consistently put it together. He knocked down 5-of-10 in his last game against Bowling Green, but was just 1-for-7 against Tuskegee three days prior. If he can build on his latest performance with another good game against Texas, Harris could be hitting his stride just in time for Big 10 play on December 31st.

Sophomore wing Branden Dawson (No. 22) is one of the team’s most exciting players, but an ACL tear in March has slowed down his development a little bit. Dawson was starting to break out as an offensive threat at the end of his freshman year, but suffered that devastating injury in the final regular season game. He went through an incredibly rapid rehab, returning to action in just seven months. Although Dawson is missing a little bit of his explosiveness and some of the lateral quickness that made him a tough defender, he’s still been impressive this season.

Dawson is built like a tank, and when he slashes to the rim he is very tough to stop. He has good body control and knows how to protect the ball so that he can use his strength to finish through contact. He’s also a good post-up option, especially when matched up against other wing players of similar size. Dawson rebounds extremely well from the wings and is ranked in the Top 250 for offensive rebounding percentage. If he can start to consistently knock down the jumper, the sophomore will be an all-around stud.

Coach Izzo has recently favored a smaller, four-guard look with freshman Denzel Valentine (No. 45) joining the starting lineup. At 6’5″, he brings some length to the perimeter and has the handles to slash from the wings. Valentine also has excellent court vision and makes great passes once he gets the defense reacting. Unfortunately, he’s also had a terrible time with turnovers this season, so he’s not getting the opportunity to really show off those other skills. Valentine has coughed it up 27 times against just 32 assists, giving him an ugly 30.9% individual turnover rate.

The man in the middle of the new lineup is 6’9″ senior Derrick Nix (No. 25). The big man has shed a lot of weight throughout his collegiate career, but in years past has been known to put it back on during the summer. This year, he showed up in the best shape yet, and his post game looks so much smoother as a result.

Unfortunately, that lack of a shooter on the Michigan State roster has allowed opponents to sag into the lane and constantly double the big man. At times, the Spartans have been lax in hurrying to his aid, abandoning him against the pressure. When he has teammates available for the kickout, Nix does a great job of tossing it out and immediately reposting. The rest of the Spartans just need to be more alert so they can help out the big man instead of stranding him in the post.

Nix is also dominant on the glass, grabbing more than 10% of his offensive rebounding opportunities and more than 22% of his chances on the defensive end. His 7.5 boards per game are tied for tops on the team.

Adreian Payne (No. 5) is the man tied with Nix atop the team rebounding rankings, despite volunteering to take on a sixth-man role early in the year. Payne was struggling with foul trouble during the first few weeks of the season, limiting his minutes and effectiveness. Since coming off the bench, he has avoided the quick fouls and increased his playing time.

Payne is a great defensive presence in the lane, with quick hops to block shots. At 6’10”, he can clean up shots from the help side and closes out numerous possessions with authoritative defensive boards. Payne is also a very good passer, a trait that makes the Spartans very tough to stop when he and Nix share the floor at the same time. He also can knock down shots out to about 17 feet, allowing him to pull opposing bigs out of the lane to clear space. It also makes him a consistent threat to pick and pop on the numerous ball screens that Michigan State sets.

The Spartans don’t have much depth in the post, with Alex Gauna (No. 2) providing the only other option. He’s averaging just 7.2 minutes per game, but he brings the same floor-stretching abilities to the court as Payne. Gauna is not nearly the rebounder that Nix and Payne are, but he’s still able to post up and is rather slippery for a guy his size.

Coach Izzo thinks he’s going to trim his rotation to nine guys at some point this season, meaning one of his three guard reserves will likely be the odd man out. Travis Trice (No. 20) is the backup point guard, but he’s missed some time this year due to concussion-symptoms suffered after taking a shot to the nose in the season opener against Connecticut. Sophomore Brendan Kearney (No. 3) is averaging nearly 18 minutes a game and brings good length and perimeter defense with his 6’5″ frame. Fellow sophomore Russell Byrd (No. 0) is struggling with his shot as he comes back from foot injuries, sinking just 19.4% of his 31 three-point attempts.

Keys to the game

1) Avoid settling for bad shots – Michigan State’s defense can be suffocating at times, and their presence on the defensive glass is downright dominant. The Spartans have allowed opponents to post effective field goal percentages greater than 47% in only four games — losses to UConn and Miami, and three-point victories over Kansas and Louisiana-Lafayette. In each of those games, the Spartans still held their opponents to offensive rebounding marks below 25%.

Even though Texas did a great job reclaiming missed shots against North Carolina on Wednesday, it’s doubtful they can consistently find much success today against the Spartans. That makes every shot more important, and Michigan State is great at forcing their opponents to take bad ones. The Longhorns have struggled this season to shoot the basketball, even when they work to get great looks. They will have to be patient today and actually capitalize when they are able to get good opportunities.

2) Capitalize on Spartan mistakes – The Spartans have had trouble hanging on to the basketball all season long, posting turnover marks north of 25% on five different occasions. With Michigan State’s defense being so difficult to crack, Texas needs to take advantage of these miscues and score some points before the Spartans can get entrenched in their half-court D.

It’s also important to note that many of Michigan State’s turnovers are live-ball ones, meaning that the Longhorns should have ample opportunity for runouts and fast break buckets. If Texas misses out on these opportunities, like they did in a crushing loss to UCLA, there will be no chance of an upset this afternoon.

3) Limit turnovers – This has been a staple in the Keys to the Game, and despite recent improvements by the Horns, it remains in today’s preview. Points will be very hard to come by this afternoon, and turnovers will only serve as a mistake that hurts on both ends of the court. Texas cannot afford to give up easy points to Michigan State, and the Horns cannot waste their own offensive possessions.

The Longhorns have posted turnover percentages of 15.5%, 17.4%, and 16.1% in their last three games. A performance similar to that will keep them in position to challenge for an upset today. Conversely, careless mistakes like those seen in the Maui Invitational and against Georgetown will quickly squash any hopes Texas has of pulling off a shocking road win.

Tom Izzo and Rick Barnes see each other so often, it sometimes seems like they’re in the same conference. The two coaches — who have a combined 877 wins between them — have met in each of the last four seasons, and they will renew their inter-conference rivalry once more when Michigan State and Texas face off in East Lansing tonight.

The five-year streak began in Madison Square Garden, where Drew Neitzel hit a last-second, game-winning shot in 2006 against a young Texas team led by a budding superstar named Kevin Durant. The Spartans also won the next two match-ups, which were played on the neutral NBA courts of the Rockets and Pistons. Last year, the series moved to an on-campus home-and-home set-up, with the Longhorns finally pulling out a win, 79-68, over a Spartan team that eventually made the Final Four.

Tonight’s game looks like another classic in this new rivalry, with both teams boasting high rankings and high expectations. The Spartans were slotted as high as 2nd in the nation in pre-season polls, but have suffered a trio of losses against very talented teams, all of which are currently ranked in the top ten. Tonight, Michigan State is hoping to add another signature win to their tournament résumé, which already includes a neutral-court win over Washington in Maui.

By the numbers

The Spartans have been excellent on offense so far this year, with an efficiency mark of 1.12 points per possession, good for 28th in the nation. They are most effective when the team is in motion, as the Spartans love to misdirect with screens and ball movement guiding the defense one way, while one of their excellent shooters curls around to the weak side for an open look.

Unfortunately, Michigan State has also had some long stretches of stagnant offense this season. When they aren’t moving around off the ball, the team tends to settle for outside shots. Against the tougher defenses they’ve faced this year, such as Syracuse’s patented 2-3 zone and Duke’s intense ball pressure beyond the perimeter, the Spartans tend to dribble the air out of the ball or simply pass it around the perimeter. The team is full of excellent shooters, but they have the most success when their looks come off of ball movement and slashing attacks, not when they simply settle for long-range jumpers.

The Spartans also had difficulty this year when Washington blitzed their ball screens in Maui. Guard Korie Lucious is just 5’11”, while starting point guard Kalin Lucas is 6’1″. With the extra length provided by Washington’s big men surging past the screen, the Husky double teams gave the Spartan guards fits. The Longhorns would be wise to do the same thing a few times tonight.

Typically, the Spartans are a dominant rebounding team. In fact, Michigan State led the NCAA in rebounding each of the last two seasons. This year, though, they look like mere mortals on the glass. The Spartans were outrebounded by eight in their loss to Syracuse, and finished even on the boards with UConn in that loss.

Despite having an “off” year on the glass, the Spartans are still very good at cleaning up their misses. So far this season, they are snagging 36.7% of offensive rebounding opportunities. Texas gave up a few easy putbacks in the second half against North Carolina on Saturday, so they need to learn from that and get a body on the Spartan rebounders when the shot is in the air.

Perhaps the biggest issue facing Tom Izzo’s team this year is ball control. They are averaging 16.2 turnovers per game, which equates to a miscue on 23% of their possessions. That turnover rate puts the team in the bottom third of Division I basketball for that metric. In all three Spartan losses this year, they had a turnover rate of greater than 23%, including a frustrating 26.9% mark in the loss at Duke.

Meet the Spartans

Michigan State has an experienced roster, so many faces will be familiar to Longhorn fans. In addition to the solid core of returning Spartans, there’s also a handful of highly-talented freshman who are already giving Coach Izzo quality contributions.

Senior swingman Durrell Summers is leading the team with 15.5 points per game so far this year, thanks in large part to his excellent stroke from long range. Summers is hitting 45.6% of his three-point attempts this season, so the Longhorns have to keep an eye on him when he’s hanging out on the weak side of the court. He’s also a solid rebounding guard, pulling down nearly five boards a night.

The aforementioned Kalin Lucas is yet another three-point threat for the Spartans, but he’s also able to attack and get to the rim at a moment’s notice. He tore his left Achilles tendon in the second round of last season’s NCAA tournament, so he is still working to get back to 100%. Even with the injury hampering his explosive first step, Lucas is one of the quickest guards in college basketball, and he’ll blow right past the Longhorns if they are playing too tight in an effort to limit his threes.

Although Draymond Green isn’t leading the team in scoring with his 12.5 points per game, he’s the team’s most important player. He leads the team with nine rebounds a game, is tops in total assists with 45, and his 14 blocks are just one shy of the team leader. He’s the Spartans’ top steal man by a wide margin, swiping it twice per game, and is even 50% from behind the arc on his 28 attempts this year.

Last season, Green was the obvious choice for the Big 10’s Sixth Man of the Year Award, and he’s well on his way to securing that honor again this season. Although Coach Izzo has used him in the starting lineup in six of the team’s first 11 games, he’s still just as productive coming off the bench. There is simply no way the Longhorns will shut Green down tonight, so they can only hope to limit his impact on the game.

Forward Delvon Roe is the man who has one more block than Green, and he’s also chipping in seven points and 5.1 rebounds each game. He’s not a flashy player or a bona fide superstar, but he gives the Spartans a junkyard dog in the paint who knows how to get to the basketball. He’s also a very good free-throw shooter for a big man, knocking down nearly 75% of his attempts this season.

Sophomore Garrick Sherman has started every game at center for the Spartans, and it’s clear that his offensive game improved tremendously in the off-season. He now has a handful of quality moves that he can use on the blocks, but still needs to put on weight if he’s going to body up down low. He gets pushed around far too often when trying to establish rebounding position, so Tristan Thompson and Gary Johnson will need to take advantage of that weakness tonight.

Korie Lucious has come off the bench in all 10 of his games this season, but he’s still the fourth-busiest player and fourth-highest scorer on the team with 24 minutes and nearly eight points a night. While Green leads the team in total assists, Lucious’ 4.2 per-game average is slightly higher. The junior can man the point when Lucas is on the bench, but he has the aggressive mindset of a scoring guard. He loves to isolate and take his man off the dribble, and quite often is the only player trying to attack the rim when the Spartans are going through one of their stagnant offensive stretches. He’s a fair three-point shooter, sinking 32.6% of his attempts so far, but on a Spartan team with much better long-range gunners, that’s not his primary role.

Freshman guard Keith Appling will likely be the point guard of the future for Michigan State, but for now he is performing well as the team’s back-up shooting guard. He was named Mr. Basketball in Michigan as a high school senior last year, averaging 28 points per game. Appling is one of the team’s most efficient players, scoring 6.5 points a night in just 16 minutes. He’s deadly when he chooses to shoot the triple, with an eye-popping success rate of 47.8% so far this season. When Appling makes it to the line, he’s even more impressive, having missed just once in 15 tries so far.

Joining Appling as a backcourt reserve is former walk-on Austin Thornton. The junior has actually started five games on the wing for the Spartans, but has been relegated to the bench as of late. Izzo is high on Thornton’s shooting ability, but so far he has struggled this season, making less than 32% of his threes. Often, Thornton looks nervous when the ball gets in his hands, and he tends to rush things. Defensively, he’s a quality option to guard opposing wings or smaller power forwards, and he buys into Coach Izzo’s active defensive philopshophy.

In the frontcourt, Derrick Nix remains a project in his sophomore season. He struggled with weight loss issues last year and didn’t accompany the team to Maui, reportedly for failing to commit to the team. After the Spartans struggled with Chaminade and lost to Connecticut, Nix was quoted as saying he felt like he let his teammates down, and he soon rejoined the roster.

Unfortunately, Nix still isn’t in very good shape, and he has a long way to go before he’ll be a significant contributor. He can’t move quickly enough to be of any use on pick and rolls, and his lack of speed makes him a huge liability in transition.

One player benefitting from Nix’s struggles is freshman Adreian Payne. He’s incredibly athletic for a 6’10” guy, but is still too undersized to be a star post player in the physical Big 10. For now, his incredible length and surprising hops make him a naturally-talented defender who is giving the team nearly 10 minutes and more than three rebounds per game.

Senior guard Mike Kebler will likely play only a couple of minutes tonight, but he earns a mention for the career outing he had against Prairie View A&M on Saturday. Kebler was averaging just 4.4 minutes and 0.6 points per game as a sparingly-used reserve, but he had the game of his life against the Panthers, scoring eight points in 15 minutes of action.

Keys to the game

For the Longhorns, the most important thing tonight will be an ability to win the rebounding battle, and they must do exceptionally well on the offensive glass. The Spartans have a correlation of 0.81 between their defensive rebounding percentage and their defensive efficiency. In layman’s terms, that means the Spartan defense is very, very reliant on keeping opponents off the offensive glass. The reason offensive rebounds are so important is because Michigan State forces teams to take bad shots. One-and-done possessions are a recipe for disaster.

On a related note, the Longhorns also need to shoot within the flow of the offense. Like the Spartans, Texas has stretches where the team fails to attack tough defenses and simply settles for bad shots. The Longhorns need to move without the ball, make the extra pass, and work for open looks instead of forcing up three-pointers with a defender just inches away. The two Longhorns we’ll specifically be watching in regard to this will be Jordan Hamilton and J’Covan Brown. Hamilton has greatly improved his shot selection as the season has rolled on, but Brown still tends to force things when the going gets tough.

Finally, Texas needs to pressure the Spartans. The Longhorns haven’t forced that many turnovers this year, but the one glaring weakness of the Michigan State offense is their tendency to cough it up. If the Longhorns let Michigan State get comfortable in their half-court sets, the very talented Spartan shooters are going to have a field day. Texas needs to mix in some full-court pressure, meet the ball handlers beyond the perimeter, and be willing to blitz and double-team when the Spartans use ball screens.

The University of Texas released the non-conference schedule for the men’s basketball team yesterday, and the Longhorns once again have a top-flight list of opponents before Big 12 play. Use the drop-down menu at the top of the page to check out the full season schedule, or simply click this handy-dandy hyperlink.

Texas opens the season with the Coaches vs. Cancer tournament, which culminates in a pair of games at Madison Square Garden against two of the tournament’s other three regional hosts — Illinois, Maryland, and Pittsburgh. The Terrapins and Panthers were both NCAA tournament teams in 2010, and both advanced out of the first round. While the Illini did not make it into the Big Dance, hopes are high for their 2010-11 campaign, and ESPN’s Andy Katz even ranked them 15th in his first preseason poll.

The Longhorns also face a trio of perennial powers in this season’s non-conference slate. Texas first travels to Greensboro, North Carolina to tangle with the Tar Heels on December 18th. As we reported on Twitter last week, the two schools were in talks to move this year’s game to the Bahamas. With this year’s contest staying Stateside, it fulfills North Carolina’s “semi-home” game in the current contract and now leaves the two schools free to revisit the Nassau option in future seasons.

While the Tar Heels were sent reeling following their loss to the Longhorns last December, they seemed to put the pieces together in the post-season and surged to the NIT finals, where they lost to Dayton. With another year under the belts of the young and talented Carolina team — plus the addition of freshman stud Harrison Barnes — the Tar Heels are set for a solid 2010-11 campaign.

Just four days later, Texas heads to East Lansing for an on-campus match-up with Michigan State. The Spartans are coming off their second-straight Final Four, and return all of their key players outside of Raymar Morgan. Although the Longhorns escaped with a victory against MSU in Austin last December, they have historically had trouble with Tom Izzo‘s teams. A true road game against a preseason-Top 5 squad will certainly be a challenge for the Horns.

In early January, Texas hosts Connecticut at the Frank Erwin Center. Like the Tar Heels, the Huskies had an abnormally mediocre season last year. Unlike North Carolina, however, Connecticut managed to knock off the Horns in the midst of their struggles. The Huskies are bringing in a pair of 4-star guards and return Kemba Walker, so expect coach Jim Calhoun to have his team ready for another exciting match-up.

The Longhorns will also face two more major conference opponents in Southern Cal and Arkansas. Texas knocked off both of those teams in 2009-10, and are looking for another clean sweep this year. The Trojans are still embroiled in NCAA drama, as their school’s lawyers are fighting sanctions that were handed down earlier this month. Coach Kevin O’Neill certainly has his hands full rebuilding the program, but his squad matured nicely at the end of last season.

The Razorbacks, meanwhile, will be without star guard Courtney Fortson, who declared for the NBA draft and signed with an agent in April. Arkansas fans are lamenting the decision, as Fortson went unselected in Thursday night’s draft. They can take solace in the fact that sharpshooter Rotnei Clarke will still be on the court for Coach John Pelphrey, though.

In addition to the major names, the Longhorns filled the remainder of their non-conference slate with a slew of mid-major opponents. Navy and Louisiana Tech are Texas’ opening round opponents in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic, while in-state foes Lamar, Rice, and Sam Houston State are all making trips to the Frank Erwin Center. North Florida and Coppin State round out the non-conference sked for the Horns with match-ups in December.