The Longhorns embark on the toughest portion of their schedule this afternoon, taking on a top-ten Mizzou squad that was still undefeated at this time last week. In the ensuing five games, Texas will also face Baylor and Kansas State on the road, while hosting Kansas, Iowa State, and this same Missouri team. Every single game is going to be tough to win, which is terrible news in a season where the Horns need every conference win they can get to simply make the NCAA tournament.

The one positive in all of this is that of the three tough road games, this is the one Texas has the best chance in. Against this murderer’s row, that’s not saying a whole lot, but it should be some comfort to Longhorn fans that amongst the league’s elite teams, these Tigers are the best match-up for Texas. The Horns are weakest in the frontcourt, which just so happens to be where the Tigers are thin, as well.

By the numbers

Although Mizzou’s frontcourt leaves a lot to be desired, they still have the best two-point field-goal percentage in the country, knocking down 57.6% of their shots from inside the arc. That’s a result of constantly attacking the paint, whether on the dribble or with smart, hard cuts that lead to easy layups. All told, Mizzou’s offensive efficiency is second in the nation, with the Tigers putting in 1.211 points per possession.

Behind the arc, Missouri is just as dangerous. The Tigers have made nearly 40% of their long-range attempts, led by seniors Kim English (No. 24) and Marcus Denmon (No. 12), who are shooting 53% and 48.7% behind the arc, respectively. The Tigers are also loaded with quick guards in the backcourt, so opposing teams have to decide whether they’d rather give up the blow-by when they are pressuring the perimeter or give up a wide-open three when sagging to cut off penetration. As the numbers show, there’s simply no good choice.

With former coach Mike Anderson now in Fayetteville, the Tigers no longer employ relentless full-court pressure, but they still play nasty defense. Under former Texas assistant Frank Haith, this year’s Missouri team just waits to turn up the pressure until after opponents have crossed half-court. Their talented crop of guards can all defend well on the perimeter, and they still force turnovers on more than 23% of possessions despite abandoning the “Fastest 40 Minutes of Basketball” approach. The high-octane offense and tenacious D still add up to a quick tempo, however, but the Tigers “only” average 69 possessions per game, currently the 82nd-fastest pace in Division I.

It’s also worth noting that the Tigers play good D without fouling. Their defensive free-throw rate is 15th-best in D-I at the moment, as opponents shoot just a little more than one free throw for every four field goal attempts. That discipline on the defensive end is huge, as Missouri is now down to just a seven-man rotation and cannot afford to have any players in foul trouble.

Meet the Tigers

That seven-man Missouri rotation was supposed to be nine deep, but a devastating injury and ill-timed transfer have dramatically changed the make-up of the Tiger roster. Senior forward Laurence Bowers tore his ACL on October 3rd, just a little more than a month before the Tigers tipped off the season, leaving Mizzou with only three legitimate options in the frontcourt. Then, just before conference play began, Toronto product Kadeem Green announced his intentions to transfer somewhere closer to home.

The Bowers injury and Green transfer left Ricardo Ratliffe (No. 10) as the sole big man in the starting five. At just 6’8″, Ratliffe is severely undersized as the primary post option against most Big 12 teams, but he knows how to establish good post position before the entry pass and makes quick, confident moves once he gets the ball. He’s smooth on his spin move and is solid with the jump hook, so even though Clint Chapman and Alexis Wangmene have a few inches on Ratliffe, they’ll have to push him off the block and deny those deep entry passes.

The Tigers have only one other big man in Steve Moore (No. 32), who comes off the bench to average just under 17 minutes per game. Moore is nowhere near the offensive threat of Ratliffe, but is a stout 6’9″ guy that provides some rebounding help and defensive presence in the paint.

With the lack of frontcourt options, the Tigers have had to rely on their strength in the backcourt. Coach Haith has elected to go with a four-guard look, and so far it has worked to near-perfection. Senior Marcus Denmon (No. 12) is the Big 12’s leading retuning scorer, and he’s near the top of the charts again this season with his 17.9 points per game. He’s incredibly quick with the basketball and can slice right through the defense to get to the rack. As mentioned earlier, he’s also a very dangerous three-point shooter, so it’s difficult to keep Denmon in check for very long.

The man facilitating the offense is sophomore guard Phil (Flip) Pressey (No. 1), who has made an amazing leap from his freshman year. The younger of two Presseys on the team, Phil struggled with turnovers during his first collegiate season, but has turned into a highly efficient point guard this year. He’s currently posting a 2.7 assist-to-turnover ratio, but is averaging 5.5 assists per game over his last ten.

Perhaps the area of greatest improvement for Flip this season is his new-found ability to adjust his speed as he reads the defense. Instead of flying recklessly into a waiting defense, he now hesitates, watches the play develop, and finds the cracks or passing lanes. If a team is slow getting back, he finds another gear and will take it coast to coast. Although this current Missouri roster is loaded with seniors, the future is still bright with Pressey running the point for two more years.

Phil’s older brother, Matt Pressey (No. 3) is possibly the best perimeter defender on the team, which is really saying something with this group of guards. He’s also no slouch on the offensive end, chipping in nearly nine points a game while making a third of his attempts from behind the arc.

Senior Kim English (No. 24) rounds out the starting five, where he’s playing what amounts to the power forward role despite having the body of a small forward. As previously mentioned, he’s been practically unconscious from outside so far this season, drilling 53% of his threes. English is also able to put the ball on the floor and slash from the wings to create looks for himself. His prowess from behind the arc plus his ability to generate good looks have the senior ranked second in the nation with an insane 68.7% effective field goal percentage.

Off the bench, Missouri’s sixth man is junior Michael Dixon (No. 11), who is another excellent perimeter defender for the Tigers. Despite seeing just 26 minutes per game off the bench, he’s still second on the team with 27 steals and he converts those turnovers into fast-break points. Once the starting point guard, Dixon has adjusted well to his new role as sixth man, which is a big reason for Missouri’s success so far. The best teams have guys who understand their roles, and the maturity with which Dixon has handled himself after losing the starting job to Pressey is a boost to the team’s performance and chemistry.

Keys to the game

1) Play sound team defense – The Tigers make great cuts without the basketball and have a roster filled with excellent ballhandlers who can attack the paint off the dribble. Texas will constantly be challenged on the defensive end, and will undoubtedly be plays where someone loses their man or gives up penetration. The key is for the Horns to play well as a defensive unit and be aware enough to provide timely help. Missouri can move the ball very well, but forcing them to work the ball around even more on busted assignments will keep things from getting out of hand.

2) Weather the storm – Missouri can score in bunches, and a full Mizzou Arena is an absolute powderkeg. With the planned “blackout” for today’s game, you can tell that fans are still treating this as a big game despite it being a down year for Texas. When the Tigers get on one of their inevitable runs, the roof is likely to blow right off the building. These young Longhorns have yet to produce a win under hostile conditions — sorry, an 80% empty L.A. Sports Arena doesn’t count — so they must show poise when things get tough this afternoon.

3) Clean the glass – Missouri doesn’t miss often, but the Longhorns can’t afford to give them extra chances when they do. Fortunately, this is one of the rare times this season that Texas has the edge in the frontcourt. The Longhorns must take advantage of this and close out good defensive possessions by securing the boards, something they had difficulty doing against A&M even when the ball was right in their hands. On the other end of the court, if Clint Chapman, Jonathan Holmes, or Jaylen Bond can get some putbacks, it will only make things easier against a tough Tiger D.

4) Avoid foul trouble – Not only is this important because the Longhorn roster lacks depth, but avoiding fouls also keeps the Tigers off the free-throw line, where they are practically automatic. Dixon has made 91% of his attempts, while Denmon is just a shade under 93% from the charity stripe. As a team, the Tigers are one of the 10 best in the country when it comes to converting the freebies, sinking almost 77% at the line.

Texas is more than halfway through the most brutal five-game stretch of their schedule, yet the team still sits atop the league with a perfect 5-0 mark. They have survived two road games and defeated two top ten teams, and have ascended the polls and the standings as a result. Unfortunately, the final two games of that five-game gauntlet will not be any easier.

First up is Missouri, who comes to the Frank Erwin Center tonight as winners of the last three matchups between these two programs. Texas had a chance to win when the teams last met in Austin, but failed to execute down the stretch and let the Tigers escape with a 69-65 win.

Missouri is coming into this game with extra rest, as they have been off since demolishing Iowa State last Saturday. Texas, meanwhile, is returning home for the first time since logging road wins against Kansas and Oklahoma State. For the Tigers, a loss tonight would put them two losses behind the Jayhawks and three losses behind the Longhorns. Without a doubt, this game is a must-win for their league title hopes.

By the numbers

If you’ve watched any Big 12 hoops in the last few years, you know about Missouri’s “Fastest 40 Minutes in Basketball.” They average more than 73 possessions per ballgame, which is 10th-fastest in all of Division I. The Tigers push the tempo with full-court pressure and extended man-to-man and matchup zones that force guards to make decisions well beyond the perimeter.

But while the Tigers force a turnover once in every four trips down the court, they don’t play reckless when they have the ball on their own end. Missouri coughs it up on just 16.9% of their own possessions, good enough for 17th-best in the country. When the easy looks aren’t available in transition, they know to slow it down and run their half-court offense.

Those half-court sets are highly efficient, reminiscent of the Dribble Drive Motion that Memphis made famous in 2008. The Tigers have a lineup filled with athletic shooters who can attack the paint off the dribble, knock down jumpers with ease, and know how to find the open man on the perimeter when they force defensive help. Missouri’s offense is just fractions of a point less efficient than that of the Longhorns — just 0.002 points per possession seperate the two offenses.

The biggest weakness for Missouri is their defensive rebounding. They are allowing opponents to claim 33.9% of their misses, and Colorado and A&M both exploited this in wins over the Tigers. The Aggies rebounded 40% of their own misses, while Colorado snagged 42.7% when they upset Missouri in Boulder. For a Texas team that has proven to be very strong on the glass, this could be huge tonight.

Meet the Tigers

Without a doubt, the team’s leader is sharpshooter Marcus Denmon. He’s making nearly 50% of his attempts from behind the arc so far this season, and he’s a guy who takes more than five threes a game. When the Tigers faced Nebraska in Columbia earlier this month, Coach Doc Sadler and the Huskers labeled Denmon as a “no-catch guy.” Their defense, however, allowed him to not only catch it, but also shoot it — over and over and over. All told, Denmon scored 27 on the typically stingy Nebraska defense, tying his career high.

Yet another sweet shooter for the Tigers is Kim English, a gym rat whose penchant for sleeping in the practice facility was well-documented during Missouri’s Elite Eight run two seasons ago. He’s averaging nearly 11 points per game and is sinking 39% of his threes, yet is just the 5th-highest scorer on the team. With five players all averaging double figures, the well-balanced Missouri attack can be very hard to defend.

One reason these Tigers are so hard to defend this season is the addition of junior college transfer Ricardo Ratliffe. Twice an All-American at the juco level, Ratliffe gives the Tigers their first legitimate post player since Coach Mike Anderson arrived in Columbia. He’s deadly with a right-handed baby hook, can drop step to the bucket with ease, and is an absolute rebounding machine. Ratliffe is averaging seven boards per game, and is grabbing nearly 13% of the team’s offensive rebounding opportunities, a number that puts him in the Top 100 nationally.

Laurence Bowers is another 6’8″ forward for the Tigers, but he plays much more like a wing. He’s a terrible match-up for most opponents, as he is so athletic and has such good handles that most forwards find it tough to contain him. At 6’8″ and boasting an impressive wingspan, Denmon makes it difficult for smaller guards to challenge his shots. On the defensive end, Bowers is an excellent shot blocker with great timing, and he’s often able to disrupt fast breaks as a trailer by coming up with unbelievable swats.

At the point, sophomore Michael Dixon has developed nicely after a freshman campaign which had some speed bumps. He’s posting an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.3, yet still averages more than 10 points per game. He’s yet another solid outside shooter for the Tigers, knocking down 37.9% of his looks behind the arc so far.

Backing up Dixon is freshman phenom Phil Pressey. A top 10 recruit at his position last season, Pressey is averaging nearly four assists per game off the bench, despite fracturing the ring finger on his right hand in December. He’s also really blossomed as a scorer in the last few weeks, and is liable to go off for a flurry of points tonight if Texas doesn’t keep a defender in his shirt.

Justin Safford provides the only senior leadership on the team, and he also brings to the table a reputation for solid interior defense. Unfortunately, Safford looks to have lost a step since tearing his ACL last February, and he doesn’t look quite as comfortable this season running the floor in transition for Mizzou. With the addition of Ratlife to the lineup, Safford is playing less than 18 minutes per game, but he still is chipping in more than seven points and four boards per game.

Also coming off the bench in the frontcourt is junior Steve Moore. Aside from Ratliffe, Moore is the only other prototypical big man on the roster, checking in at 6’9″ and 270 pounds. Unfortunately, he’s not in great shape for running up and down the court, and his conditioning leads to a lot of fouls when he gets out of position. He’s fouled out of three games this year and averages more than 8 fouls per 40 minutes.

In the backcourt, the deep Tiger roster also boasts junior college transfer Matt Pressey, older brother of Phil. He played his juco ball at Navarro CC, where he showcased the ability to get inside off the bounce and score in traffic. He’s not a great outside shooter, so the Horns would be wise to give him a cushion lest he blow by and penetrate the lane.

Freshman Ricky Kreklow rounds out the rotation, and he marks the third-straight Mr. Basketball from the state of Missouri to play for the Tigers. He’s known for his outside shooting, and so far is making 32.3% of his long-range attempts in his 11 minutes of action per game.

Keys to the game

First and foremost, the key for any team playing the Tigers is to control the basketball. Fortunately, Texas has been one of the steadiest teams in the country when it comes to ball control, coughing it up just 17.5% of the time. Of course, the Longhorns haven’t faced a defense quite like Missouri’s so far this season, and have shown occassional spurts of sloppiness throughout the season. Limit the turnovers tonight, though, and the Longhorns should move to 6-0 in league play.

If Texas is limiting the turnovers, it forces Missouri to play half-court basketball. The Tigers are great at penetrating and kicking, so they must lock down the perimeter, especially the sharpshooting Denmon. Dogus Balbay has done a fantastic job in his last two games, holding Josh Selby to four points and Ketion Page to zero. If he can lock down Denmon, the Horns will only have to worry about keeping Dixon and English from lighting them up from outside.

As we mentioned earlier, Missouri’s big weakness is on the defensive glass. If Texas can dominate the offensive boards, they should be able to get quite a few second chance points. Texas is the 35th-best offensive rebounding team in the country, securing 37% of their own misses. Keep up that trend against Missouri, and it should result in a W.

Finally, Texas will want to dictate the pace. The Tigers are more rested coming into this game, and have a rotation of ten men. The Longhorns can feasibly only run seven or eight deep, so getting into a track meet will only work in Missouri’s favor. If the Longhorns can run when it benefits them, and play half-court basketball when the fast break isn’t there, they should be able to defend their home court.

It has been a long, interesting month for the Longhorns. On January 17th, Texas was ranked No. 1 in the nation and held a pristine 17-0 mark. Just a day later, the Horns would start a slide in which they lost five out of seven games and plummeted from the upper crust of college basketball. But on Saturday, Texas once again looked like the dominant team that fans watched the first two months of the season. In a 40-point beating of Nebraska, the Longhorns were highly efficient on both ends of the court, and the much-heralded freshmen finally all put it together in the same game.

Texas’ recent performance has made fans hesitant to get excited once again. While the Longhorns certainly looked unstoppable on Saturday, their skittish performances the previous four weeks have planted a seed of doubt in the minds of most. Tonight, the Longhorns will find out whether or not they have turned a corner. In facing a very tough Missouri team in a very intimidating road enviornment, Texas will likely find what their true identity is. Are they a scuttling group that is squandering immeasurable talent? Or are they a team that is finally going to hit their stride, just in time for March?

By the numbers

As fans of college basketball are well aware, Mike Anderson and the Tigers play an up-tempo, pressure style of hoops they have dubbed “The Fastest 40 Minutes in Basketball.” Anderson was once as assistant under Nolan Richardson at Arkansas, where the “40 Minutes of Hell” led to a national title, and Mike’s re-branding of the time-tested strategy actually led the Tigers to last year’s Elite Eight.

Missouri leads the Big 12 with 20.4 turnovers forced per game. The impact of that pressure defense is magnified by the fact that the Tigers only cough it up about thirteen times per game, so the differential gives the Tigers a bunch of extra possessions. In addition, 11.4 of the turnovers that Mizzou forces each game come in the form of steals, which is tops in the nation. Keeping the ball in play — rather than forcing TOs on passes out of bounds — gives the Tigers more points in transition.

That transition game is a big reason why the Tiger offense is ranked 42nd nationally in efficiency by stat guru Ken Pomeroy. Missouri’s gameplan can often feel like a tiny snowball building into an avalanche, as one turnover leads to an easy bucket, which lets them set up their full-court press, which forces another turnover and a layup, and they get to set up their defense…… You get the picture.

Tonight’s game is likely to be a full-on track meet. The Tigers average 72.1 possessions per game, which is the 20th-fastest tempo in the nation. (As you can see, the “Fastest 40” moniker is a bit of false advertising.) The Longhorns, meanwhile, average 74.5 possessions, which is 7th-fastest in the NCAAs. Unless Texas decides to make a conscious effort to slow the pace, this game will be played at break-neck speed.

When Missouri isn’t scoring their points off of transition, their half-court sets are very impressive. Good, strong cuts and quick ball movement earn the Tigers quite a few open looks, and strong dribble penetration leads to open three-point shots on the kick-outs. Missouri makes over 38% of their looks from long range, so Texas must make sure they don’t let the Tigers get too hot from behind the arc.

Meet the Tigers

After losing DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons to the NBA draft, Missouri needed to find a way to replace their 31 points and 13 rebounds per game. Fortunately for Coach Anderson, his lineup is filled with players who possess similar skills and body types. While no one has quite filled the frontcourt void left by these two stars, the Tigers are finding that their system and interchangeable personnel allows for quick reloading from year to year.

This year, Missouri’s senior leaders come in the form of J.T. Tiller and Zaire Taylor. Tiller was the Big 12’s top defensive player last season, and he’s picked up right where he left off. He has 32 steals so far this year, while only fouling out of one game. His offensive skillset is limited mostly to driving the lane for easy looks, so Tiller is fortunately one Tiger that Texas won’t have to watch on the perimeter.

Texas fans should remember Taylor quite well. Last year, he converted an old-fashioned three-point play in the final seconds to defeat the Longhorns, and hit a short jumper against Kansas to win in the Border War just a few days later. Nicknamed “Big Shot” for his heroics in those two games, Taylor is a pretty good outside shooter (39.7% behind the arc), and is averaging eight points per game.

The backcourt is where all the depth is for Missouri this year, but most of the Tiger guards are much taller than those of the Longhorns. The tallest of them all is 6’6″ Kim English, a sophomore guard who’s best known for sleeping in the gym. He’s leading the team in scoring with nearly 15 points per game, and much of it comes from long range. English has knocked down 53 triples on the year, and is shooting 37.6% from the perimeter.

Another long-range threat in the backcourt is sophomore Marcus Denmon. In his second season, he’s stepped into the spotlight, making more than 44% of his three-point attempts while scoring about eleven points per game. If there is one player that Texas absolutely cannot lose track of tonight, it’s Denmon.

While the Missouri lineup is littered with guys from 6’6″ to 6’8″ who are all quick, athletic, and have great wingpan, the most disruptive has to be Justin Safford. At 6’8″, his wingspan is much longer than it should be, and it makes him great at denial on entry passes and has helped him log 18 blocked shots this year. Safford didn’t see a lot of action down the stretch last season, but he’s averaging 21 minutes per game in his junior campaign and is consistently making solid contributions.

While Safford is long and defensively disruptive, the true shot blocker on the team is Keith Ramsey. He led the team in swats last year, and is second on the squad this year with 29 blocks. He’s not much of a scorer, but he is one of the only real frontcourt presences on a perimeter-oriented team. Ramsey will be relied on tonight to clean the glass and deny the Texas bigs down low.

The other frontcourt presence is sophomore Laurence Bowers. Hailing from Memphis, Bowers has been described by the coaches as the team’s most complete player, and in just his second season, he’s already starting to show why. He leads the team in blocked shots and rebounds, is third in scoring, and even has 27 steals. While Bowers is already making an impact in the Big 12, there’s no doubt that he is going to be an absolute star in the coming years.

Each of the seven players above is averaging more than 20 minutes a game, with none of them playing for more than 26.7 per contest. Anderson loves to constantly change his lineups, running essentially nine deep in an effort to wear down the opponents and keep his own players fresh enough to keep up the pressure. Texas is also a very deep team, but in recent weeks Rick Barnes has been working to pare down his core rotation. It will be interesting to see how Texas uses its personnel in response to Anderson’s substitution style.

The other two players who see significant minutes for the Tigers are freshman Michael Dixon and sophomore guard Miguel Paul. Dixon was Mr. Basketball for the state of Missouri as a high school senior last year, and he’s made a solid impression on the Big 12 so far as a freshman. He’s quick, smart with the basketball, and has a sound grasp of what Anderson’s defense requires from him. Paul is also a quick guard and a serviceable shooter, but doesn’t make that much of an impact on the stat sheet in his twelve minutes per game.

Keys to the game

While it may be painfully obvious already, the number one thing Texas must do tonight is control the basketball. Missouri’s pressure defense is even more effective in front of their rowdy crowd, so the Longhorns can’t afford to fuel the fire by wasting possessions and giving up easy fast break points. A lot of this will come down to the play of J’Covan Brown and Jordan Hamilton, who have been two of the biggest turnover culprits in the past. As freshmen, they’ve only seen a handful of road arenas. Hopefully their experience at the electric Octagon of Doom was enough to prepare them for tonight.

Along the same lines, Texas must remain poised. At some point, Missouri will go on a run. With their style of play and the Texas penchant for scoring droughts, it’s practically a certainty. But the Longhorns must respond tonight when they get metaphorically punched in the mouth, or else they will find themselves with a deficit they will be unable to overcome.

In addition, Texas must efficiently use Dexter Pittman. In this type of game, he’s not going to be able to play for very long. But when he is on the court, he will undoubtedly be a tough match-up for the smaller Missouri lineup. If the Longhorns can get a nice chunk of points from Big Pitt, and maybe even pick up some fouls on the thin Tiger frontcourt, it could change the complexion of the game.

Finally, one brief reminder about the perimeter threat from the Tigers. Mizzou’s excellent three-point accuracy was mentioned throughout the player introductions, but Longhorn fans know all-too-well how Texas opponents tend to get ridiculously hot from long range. If Missouri shoots like the Sooners did in Norman or the Red Raiders did in Austin, there’s very little chance Texas leaves Columbia with a win.

The big picture

In terms of the conference standings, this game is huge. With just five games remaining after tonight’s contest, there is very little time to make up ground and practically no room for error. Kansas State, Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, and Texas have separated themselves from the pack and are all log-jammed from spots two through six in the standings.

If the Longhorns want a bye in the first round of the conference tournament, they have to win the remaining head-to-head meetings against the Aggies, Bears, and Tigers. Lose tonight, and it’s very likely the Horns will be playing the Big 12’s 11- or 12-seed on the second Wednesday in March.

Texas slid to sixth in both polls this afternoon following back-to-back losses on the road. The Kentucky Wildcats ascended to the top spot as the nation’s lone undefeated team, while Kansas moved up to second in both rankings.

The K-State Wildcats took a slight dip after a home loss to Oklahoma State, even though they were the first team to knock off Texas with a Big Monday victory earlier in the week. KSU is 11th in the media poll and is ranked 13th by coaches. Baylor is the only other Big 12 representative, checking in at 24th in the Associated Press rankings, although Texas A&M, Missouri, and Oklahoma State all received votes in both polls.

The Longhorns also took a dive in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology, sliding to the 2-seed line in the Salt Lake City regional. In Lunardi’s mock bracket, Texas is paired with 1-seed Syracuse, an absolute nightmare match-up for a Longhorn team that is paralyzed by zone defenses.

The Jayhawks maintained their hold on a 1-seed, but were moved to the Houston regional that the Longhorns vacated. Lunardi awarded five other bids to the Big 12, putting K-State (3-seed), Baylor (5), Missouri (8), A&M (9), and Oklahoma State (11) in the mix.

Over the final thirteen games of the conference season, the Baylor Bears mustered just three wins while steadily dropping to the bottom of the league standings. But in only three days of the Big 12 Championship in Oklahoma City, those same Bears have reeled off just as many wins and are now a step away from doing the unthinkable — claiming four victories in four days to steal the league’s automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

When Coach Scott Drew led last year’s team to the Big Dance, it was the first appearance for the Baptists from the Brazos in 20 years. After an offseason in which the Bears added highly-touted freshmen Quincy Acy and Anthony Jones, the preseason polls had tabbed them as third-best in the conference. But after that brutal 13-game stretch which began in late January, this Baylor team was being mentioned in “biggest disappointment” discussions with the likes of Georgetown and Notre Dame. It wasn’t just the NCAA tournament that was off the radar for this scuttling team. There were doubts as to if they could even to slip into the NIT.

And that’s the beauty of March. With three days of inspired basketball and a storyline that seems like something out of a Disney movie, the embattled Bears are on the brink of something spectacular. But standing in their way are the Missouri Tigers, the other feel-good story of the Big 12 this season. After a year filled with off-court distractions, player dismissals and a disappointing record, they were again picked in the bottom half of the league during preseason polling. But the Tigers defied all odds, upset bitter rival Kansas at home in the Border War, finished a surprising third in the conference, and even ascended to the Top 10 in national polls.

Today’s game will be an interesting case study in which team can impose its will upon the other. Both squads are fantastic ball handlers and turn it over less than 18% of the time, putting them both in the top sixty nationally. But the Tigers are one of the best squads around when it comes to pressuring the basketball and forcing mistakes. Will Mike Anderson‘s team be able to shake up the Bears and gobble up a solid chunk of points off of turnovers? Or will this be a well-controlled game whose winner is the one that plays the smartest, most efficient game?

One huge factor in the outcome could be the fatigue level of the Bears, who have played one more game than the Tigers this week. With Missouri loving to play an up-tempo style, there is a good chance that the Baylor players could get hit with dead legs late in the game. Kevin Rogers, who has averaged 14.7 points per game in the tournament, has also played nearly 37 minutes per game. Curtis Jerrells, the other senior leader in Baylor’s starting five, has played 34 minutes per game over the last three days. While the Missouri starters ate up a lot of minutes last night, the Tigers are a very well-conditioned team that can easily run 10 deep on the bench. If it’s a close game in the final minutes, this could be the deciding factor.

One way for Baylor to mitigate that disadvantage would be to jump out to a big early lead and get the crowd behind the underdogs. With the way Missouri has played the last two nights, that is a distinct possibility. The Tigers looked to be sleepwalking through their quarterfinal against Texas Tech before pulling away in the second half, and they shot just 25.8% in the first twenty minutes against Oklahoma State. Missouri is a team that will score in bunches, to if the Bears can take advantage of another slow start, it will give them the added cushion they’ll need to withstand those Tiger streaks.