After a 24-4 run put the Longhorns up by twelve points with seventeen minutes left, it appeared that Texas could coast to a much-needed road win over a low-scoring Nebraska team. But as they have done numerous times this season, the Longhorns melted down the stretch and made questionable decisions in the final minutes to choke away another victory. This time, it resulted in a 58-55 loss in Lincoln, Nebraska, just the second time in the last eleven years that Texas has been defeated by the Cornhuskers.

The Longhorns (15-7 overall, 4-4 Big 12) built their large lead with solid defensive play, holding Nebraska to just two field goals during a thirteen minute stretch spanning both halves. But poor three-point defense reared its ugly head once again, as the Huskers (15-7, 5-4) hit four of five from long range the rest of the way, including an Ade Dagunduro rainbow taken from just outside Omaha that put them ahead for good.

Poor decision making was again a culprit in the loss, as A.J. Abrams tried to force the issue once again. With Texas only down two and holding the ball with 30 seconds to play, Abrams fought a futile battle to work for an open shot. But with three defenders in his face, rather than looking for his open teammates, he decided to force up a prayer from 25 feet. It was the second straight game where Abrams forced up a contested trey in the waning seconds, as his long-range look in a tie game against Missouri clanged off the rim with 32 ticks left on Wednesday night.

The loss was the third straight for Texas, who now drops into sixth place in the Big 12, half a game behind Kansas State and Nebraska, teams which now both hold tiebreakers over the Longhorns. The three-game skid is the first since the 2004-05 season, a year in which they were without LaMarcus Aldridge (hip injury) and P.J. Tucker (academic ineligibility). You would have to go all the way back to 1997-98 — the last season of the Tom Penders era — to find another such slide in Texas history.

Lost in the sting of defeat were solid performances by Dexter Pittman and Damion James. Big Dex was a force down low, but his game was hampered by foul trouble throughout. Pittman and the rest of the Longhorns seemed to be a step behind the smaller, quicker Nebraska guards, and the infractions quickly piled up. With Dexter’s minutes spread out, James had to step up on the glass, and did so in a big way. He finished the game with 13 points and 12 rebounds, despite fighting his own foul trouble.

The road doesn’t get any easier for Texas, with the Oklahoma State Cowboys arriving at the Frank Erwin Center on Tuesday night, currently ranked 11th in the nation in three-point percentage. For a Longhorn team that has let many opponents thrive from the perimeter, the outlook remains troublesome.

If there was ever a must-win game for the Texas Longhorns, this would be it. They have lost two straight games by a combined eight points, slipping to only .500 in conference play, where they sit just a half-game above the dreaded fifth-place line.

So while it’s certainly time to stop the bleeding, the Longhorns have the unenviable task of doing so on the road against a very well-coached team that has historically takes them to the wire. Although Texas has defeated the Cornhuskers nine out of the ten meetings under Coach Rick Barnes, the last two meetings against new Nebraska coach Doc Sadler have been much more interesting. In 2006, the Longhorns escaped Lincoln with a one-point victory — a contest they also entered on a two-game losing skid — and won by only four last season in Austin.

But if Tuesday night’s game against Missouri was the worst possible match-up for the Longhorns, this afternoon’s contest with Nebraska could be one of the best. The Huskers play a style of basketball that is nearly identical to Texas, but do it with a smaller, less-athletic team. If Texas plays sound basketball, they should escape Lincoln with another narrow victory.

By the numbers

As we just mentioned, watching a Nebraska game can be eerily similar to watching this year’s Texas team. While the Longhorns average just 67.4 possessions per game, the Cornhuskers run things at a slightly slower pace, averaging 63.8 possessions. Today, Texas will not have to worry about dictating the pace of play or preventing from falling into a transition battle. It’s going to be a half-court slugfest, and the team that can best utilize their limited possessions will come out on top.

The best measure of that skill is Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency metric, which represents how efficiently offenses and defenses work. Just as with the tempo statistic, these two teams are nearly identical in efficiency. Both Texas and Nebraska are solid defensive squads with slightly above-average offenses, and are so closely matched that their efficiency margins (offensive pts/poss – defensive pts/poss) differ by only .065, with Texas on top. If you were to extrapolate with the tempo these two teams play at, we should be looking at a game hovering around 60 points, with the winner clinging to a four-point margin of victory. It might be time to break out the Tums.

Meet the Cornhuskers

The biggest question coming into this season was how Doc Sadler would replace big man and go-to scoring option Aleks Maric. The Aussie averaged a double-double last season for Nebraska, putting in more than 15 points with 10 rebounds every night. Without him, the current incarnation of Cornhusker basketball is a four-guard look, with an unreliable “post” player inside that can hardly stay on the floor for five straight minutes.

Miniscule Cookie Miller leads things at the point for Nebraska, checking in at an alleged 5-foot, 7-inches. But if Cookie is truly that tall, then Muggsy Bogues was a power forward. What Miller lacks in height and muscle, though, he makes up for in unabated scrappiness. He’s one of the fastest players on the floor, a fiesty defender, and has a knack for taking ridiculous-looking shots that somehow find their way in the hole. But perhaps most importantly, he is a quality floor general who keeps his teams turnovers low while dishing out nearly five assists per game.

Although Sek Henry is third on the team in scoring with nine points a game, the thing Coach Sadler loves about him most is the quality defense he gives night in and night out. He’ll hassle your guards on the perimeter and make it hard for the offense to get started, and even provides about a steal per game.

Senior Steve Harley leads the team in scoring, although that title changes from game to game. Entering this contest, Harley has 11.8 points per contest, and does it with solid jump shooting and nice range. He’s not the team’s best three-point shooter, hitting just over 36% of his long-range attempts. But Harley has an excellent mid-range jumper, and he can use it not just for the easy two, but also to pull the defense out and open up the driving lanes for the other three guards.

The other main scoring threat for Coach Sadler is Ade Dagunduro, a 6’5″ swingman that has become the team’s de facto post presence. He is often matched up defensively with the biggest players that the opponents throw out there, and he’s not afraid to bang with the frontcourt players to earn his points. Ade is a very lengthy player with great handles that can drive the lane, but needs to step up his consistency in Big 12 play. He has had breakout, 20-plus point nights against quality teams such as Missouri and Kansas, but nearly disappeared on Wednesday against Colorado. If he has an off night, it will be much harder for Nebraska to grind out the win over the Longhorns.

While the four guards run the show, Coach Sadler’s offense relies on one post player who can step out and set screens or start things from the high post. Junior Chris Balham fills that role in the starting lineup, although his propensity to collect fouls like Pokemon cards makes him nearly inconsequential in most games. He has yet to play more than fourteen minutes in a conference game, and it seems that even on nights when he’s not fouling indiscriminately, that the knee problems which have bothered him the last two seasons flare up once again.

Off the bench

For most of the season, Coach Sadler has gone with an eight-man rotation, but has lately been trying to expand his bench to include ten contributing players. With his defense-first philosophy, a deeper team is definitely going to be needed to last through the second half of conference play and into the post-season.

Ryan Anderson is the biggest threat off the bench, and despite his 6’4″ frame, he often picks up the slack for Balham down low. He is actually the team’s leading rebounder, despite playing only 24 minutes per game, and he has no qualms about bodying up on defense in the paint. On offense, Anderson uses his long-range threat to make himself a true dual-threat player. He can knock down the three, or slash to the basket on a moment’s notice. Even though this junior is technically a bench player, he will be a big factor in today’s game.

Another bench player who sees a solid chunk of minutes every night is three-point weapon Paul Velander. At one point just a few weeks ago, he actually led the nation in three-point accuracy, but has since slowed down in conference play. Even with the cold spell, he’s hitting over 44% of his threes this year, and will certainly cause a problem for a Texas team that allowed Kansas State to light them up from long range.

Toney McCray is a smooth freshman wingman from Texas that Coach Sadler sees as the future of the team. And if you’ve seen the flashes of brilliance from this kid, you can tell why. McCray is only averaging 16 minutes per game, but has been seeing significant minutes in most of Nebraska’s conference games. He’s another guy who can knock down the three or glide to the rack, so look for him to make a few key buckets in this afternoon’s contest.

Guard Brandon Richardson is one of the players that Coach Sadler is trying to work into the gameplan a little more as conference play rolls on. After not seeing the floor in the first four Big 12 games this year, Richardson has given quality minutes in the last four contests. He’s yet another quality three-point shooter, and you can tell he’s eager for more minutes by how hard he plays when he’s on the floor.

Cole Salomon is the other player seeing more minutes in recent action, as he’s averaged more than ten minutes in the last three games after playing less than a minute per game during the first eighteen of the year. He’s not going to score many points, if any, but proved against Kansas that he was willing to crash the glass despite being just a 6’4″ guard.

Keys to the game

Give Dexter the ball – Dexter Pittman was a huge risk/reward proposition against Missouri, and it showed. While he set a career high with 25 points, it was his poor defense that let the better-conditioned Tigers blow past him for key buckets late in the game. But against Nebraska, he should have an absolute field day. There is absolutely no one on this Cornhusker team that can hope to defend him or outrebound him. And because Doc Sadler loves the slow, grind-it-out style of play, Dexter will not be out of place having to run up and down the floor. He can hide in the back of a zone defense — something Nebraska seemed to be completely confounded by when Colorado used it — and dominate on the offensive end.

Destroy Nebraska on the glass – The Cornhuskers are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country, — in fact, there are only six teams with poorer numbers in the NCAA — which means that they have to be incredibly efficient with the basketball. Part of the problem is that they are so severely undersized, but some of the blame also falls on the fact that they are so committed to defense that three Nebraska players are usually backpedaling as soon as the team’s shot is released. Texas has to limit the Cornhuskers to a bunch of one-shot possessions, and on the offensive end they must utilize their massive height advantage to extend their own possessions with timely rebounds.

Control the basketball – Nebraska doesn’t run Missouri’s adopted “Forty Minutes of Hell” style of play, but they are very good when it comes to winning the turnover battle. Their +6.2 turnover margin ranks in the top five nationally, and it’s even more impressive when you stop to consider how few possessions there are in a typical Nebraska game. Their opponents average 18 turnovers per contest, so when there’s less than 64 possessions in a game, that leaves Texas with very, very little margin for error.

Texas returns home after a surprising loss in Lubbock, hoping to maintain their hold on the Big 12 Championship and a 1-seed in the conference tournament next weekend. Standing in their way are the suddenly resurgent Nebraska Cornhuskers, winners of three of their last four, including a road upset of Texas A&M just a little over a week ago. With the early tip time and likely meager crowd, the Longhorns will have to be careful against a Nebraska team that can surprise anyone on any given night.

By the numbers

Nebraska’s game is built upon their excellent defense, which is ranked 20th in the country in efficiency. Over their last ten games, the Cornhuskers have allowed only two teams to notch an eFG% of greater than 50%. Doc Sadler’s team will try to limit the number of possessions and rely upon their stingy D to keep the score low enough that they can snatch a victory.

While Nebraska turns the ball over only about thirteen times a game, that number can be a bit misleading because of their pace of play. That slow-down brand of basketball that the Cornhuskers utilize means that their adjusted tempo is 302nd in the country out of 341 Division I teams. If Texas can not only pressure the ball, but also force the tempo against the stubborn Huskers, they can easily cruise in this one.

The starting five

Nebraska is completely built around the game of big man Aleks Maric. The 6’11” Aussie leads the team in scoring and averages a double-double with a line of 16/10. Not only can he showcase a myriad of post moves, but Maric is an excellent passer who draws the double team and has an eye for the interior dish or the back-door cut. Coach Sadler also likes to run high screens with Aleks, drawing out the bigger post defenders and opening up the inside lanes for their slashing guards. Texas will have a tough time matching up with the big man, but should be able to shut down the rest of the anemic Nebraska offense.

Point guard Cookie Miller is the other key player for Nebraska, although an injury suffered at Texas A&M on February 23rd has kept him out of the last two games. There’s no word yet on whether or not he will return to the floor this evening, much less the starting line-up. If he does play, Texas will be facing a guard who is quick on the dribble-drive and is a deft passer. He’s still turning over the ball more than you’d like for a point guard, but as he gains experience over the years he will likely develop into a hell of a threat. Miller is also a short guard, so he does not give the Longhorns a poor match-up defensively if he’s on the floor.

A candidate for the Big 12 All-Newcomer team is JuCo transfer Steve Harley. He’s another tiny guard who checks in at 5’11”, and he can shoot it from anywhere on the floor. But despite his tiny size, he’s not afraid to take it inside and try to earn his points amongst the trees.

Ryan Anderson is a 6’4″ guard who can hang out on the perimeter in the 4-out, 1-in look that Sadler employs. But on defense, he’s often mismatched with much taller players at the 3 or the 4. The Longhorns don’t go big often enough for this to be a huge factor in today’s game, but he will give up a few inches against Damion James and could find himself in a huge mismatch if he’s ever up against Connor Atchley, Clint Chapman, or Alexis Wangmene.

At 6-foot, 5-inches, Ade Dagunduro plays like a man much longer than he actually is. The “guard” also has to deal with the match-up issues that Anderson faces, but he is a solid defender and rebounder who can often hold his own against the taller players. Dagunduro also has a nice mid-range jumper, has shown range out to 18 feet, and can take it to the rack if the defense press him.

Off the bench

Sek Henry may start this game in place of Miller, but has often been a key sixth man for Coach Sadler this year. He has been tasked with running the point while Cookie has been injured, but it isn’t a natural role for him. He’s much more of a slashing guard, although his scoring punch hasn’t really been seen until the last few games. He’s good for five to seven points, but shouldn’t be a huge problem for the Horns today.

Sophomore guard Jay-R Strowbridge is playing about eighteen minutes a game and reminds me of a poor man’s A.J. Abrams. He’s undersized, has a quick release, and has been hitting threes at about a 38% clip so far this year. If he somehow gets hot tonight, it could make things interesting.

With the 4-out, 1-in look, Nebraska has oftentimes struggled on the offensive glass this year. The recent play of sophomore Chris Balham is helping with that problem, as he’s earned double-digit minutes in seven conference games after hardly playing throughout the non-conf slate. In those seven games, Balham is averaging 3.5 boards per contest, which would surprisingly put him fourth on the team.

What to look for

While Nebraska could feasibly win this game today, this is a program that is building for the future. Coach Sadler has redshirted five players, including a little-used sophomore, and will only be losing Maric to graduation this summer. If Texas takes care of business, this should be a one-sided affair.

1) Control the glass – The Longhorns can’t afford to let Nebraska suddenly become a solid rebounding club. The Cornhuskers are not a very good offensive team, so limiting them to one-and-done possessions should keep Nebraska from scoring enough to hang with Texas.

2) Limit Maric’s touches – It’s difficult to keep the big man from touching the ball considering the entire NU offense runs through him. But if Texas can keep him from catching the ball in the low blocks, things will be much easier tonight. Of course, they could also get him in early foul trouble like Oklahoma State did…

3) Play up to potential – This seems like a silly key point, but the fact of the matter is that Texas played one of its worst games of the year on Saturday. If the Longhorns play the way that they should, tonight’s game should not ever be in doubt. But play poor defense again or turn it over like they have in the last two, and things could get dicey.

Although slots four through ten are no longer separated by just a game as they were this time last week, the league is still a complete mess in the middle as the season winds to a close. Thanks to a complete tanking by Kansas State — losers of four straight and five out of six — the Baylor Bears actually control their own destiny in regards to the 3-seed in Kansas City. And with a late-season push, even the Oklahoma State Cowboys are within striking distance of that fourth and final bye in the conference tournament.

Texas Longhorns (11-3)
Remaining games: vs. Nebraska (Tuesday), vs. Oklahoma State (Sunday)
Outlook: The loss to Tech puts the Longhorns in a tie with Kansas once again, but they hold the tiebreaker for the #1 seed in Kansas City thanks to the victory over the Jayhawks last month. The crowds for this week’s games could be abysmal, with the Nebraska tip at 6:30 P.M. and the Oklahoma State game being played during Spring Break.

Kansas Jayhawks (11-3)
Remaining games: vs. Texas Tech (Tonight), at Texas A&M (Saturday)
Outlook: Unless the Longhorns stumble, the best that Kansas can hope for is a split title and the 2-seed in the post-season tournament. But Kansas must match Texas stride-for-stride down the homestretch, and their schedule is admittedly more difficult. Tech has a very slim shot at the NCAAs, but a road win in Lawrence would propel them to the top of the bubble discussion. And with A&M fading fast, their backs will be against the wall when Kansas comes to town on Sunday. KU cannot afford to overlook either one of these two teams.

Baylor Bears (8-6)
Remaining games: vs. Texas A&M (Wednesday), at Texas Tech (Saturday)
Outlook: Thanks to the head-to-head win over K-State, the Bears would claim the 3-seed if they win their remaining two games. But a stumble against A&M or Tech opens the door for the four teams sitting just a game back at 7-7, so Scott Drew’s guard-tastic team has to stay on top of its game this final week.

Kansas State Wildcats (8-6)
Remaining games: vs. Colorado (Tuesday), at Iowa State (Saturday)
Outlook: While Baylor does hold the tiebreaker, the Wildcats have the more manageable schedule this week. The home game against Colorado should finally snap the KSU slide, but this team has struggled all season long on the road and Hilton Coliseum will be a tough place to win on Senior Night. A split this week could drop the ‘Cats all the way from first place at the beginning of February to an opening-round game next Thursday in KC.

Texas A&M Aggies (7-7)
Remaining games: at Baylor (Wednesday), vs. Kansas (Saturday)
Outlook: While the K-State slide might seem monumental, the Aggies are the only team in the country this year who have fallen from the Top 10 to sweating things out on the bubble. A&M managed less than a point a minute in Norman on Saturday, and that simply won’t get the job done against the high-powered offenses of Baylor and Kansas. If Texas A&M wants to feel secure about its place in the NCAAs, they really have to steal that road game in Waco on Wednesday night, one that Longhorn Road Trip will be watching live from the Ferrell Center.

Oklahoma Sooners (7-7)
Remaining games: at Oklahoma State (Wednesday), vs. Missouri (Saturday)
Outlook: Of the four southern teams knotted at 7-7, Oklahoma has the easiest schedule left. The road game against Bedlam rival OSU won’t be easy, but a 9-7 finish and a potential 4-seed is within the grasp of the Sooners.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-7)
Remaining games: vs. Oklahoma (Wednesday), at Texas (Sunday)
Outlook: Raise your hand if you thought OSU would be earning fringe bubble talk with a week left to go in the season. Anyone? Fry? Bueller? The Pokes have a bitch of a finish in Austin on Sunday, but home court in the Bedlam series could put them above .500 in league play for what feels like the first time since Grover Cleveland was in office.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-7)
Remaining games: at Kansas (Tonight), vs. Baylor (Saturday)
Outlook: Pat Knight already has two Top 25 upsets on his nine-game bio, but both of those came in the friendly confines of the United Spirit Arena. This difficult final stretch will test the Red Raiders, and they could easily drop both games and find themselves playing in the dreaded 8-9 game next week.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-8)
Remaining games: at Texas (Tuesday), vs. Colorado (Sunday)
Outlook: After a promising non-conference start, Nebraska fizzled in Big 12 play. Winning three of their last four has them in the mix, but a tough road date with the Longhorns could quickly kill that momentum. The home game against Colorado on Sunday should provide an easy win, setting the Huskers up for potential home games in the NIT.

Missouri Tigers (5-9)
Remaining games: vs. Iowa State (Wednesday), at Oklahoma (Saturday)
Outlook: A possible split to finish the season for the Tigers, who have to be happy with even five conference wins after their entire team decided to have a brawl in a nightclub. If only they’d decided to have their Ultimate Fighting Championship prior to the game with Texas…

Iowa State Cyclones (4-10)
Remaining games: at Missouri (Wednesday), vs. Kansas State (Saturday)
Outlook: With K-State struggling on the road, the Cyclones could put a nice capper on a disappointing season by pulling off the home upset on Jiri Hubalek’s senior day. While the season has generally been a wash, the young talent that Coach McDermott has on-board could mean that great things will be happening in Ames in the near future.

Colorado Buffaloes (3-11)
Remaining games: at Kansas State (Tuesday), at Nebraska (Sunday)
Outlook: Richard Roby will finally exhaust his eligibility. It’s about damned time.