Last year, the one consistent storyline throughout the season was a lack of quality wins. The Longhorns spent the entire season on the bubble, with every win crucial to what would eventually become the program’s 14th-consecutive NCAA bid. Thanks to an inability to win close games, Texas finished the season with just three victories against the RPI Top 100, while its fans sweated the bubble until a Big 12 tournament win over Iowa State.

Although most fans have already written this season off as an abject failure, the truth is that we’re only about a third of the way through it. The absence of both Jaylen Bond and Myck Kabongo has been crippling, as evidenced in low offensive rebounding numbers and a sky-high turnover rate. The return of one or both of those players can only make the Longhorns better and increase the odds that they pull off some quality wins in league play.

Unfortunately, the Big 12 is under-performing to an alarming degree this season. Predicted to be a deep, difficult conference in 2012-13, the Big 12 now looks like Kansas, a couple of challengers, and a whole lot of muck. That gives the Longhorns six conference games against current RPI Top 50 teams and another six games against teams ranked between 51 and 100, with West Virginia just a few losses away from falling below that critical threshold.

Texas could certainly build a résumé on wins against OU, Baylor, and Iowa State, but it wouldn’t hold much weight when considered alongside a loss to D-II Chaminade. So, while no one would consider a mid-December game a “must win,” the importance of tonight’s game against UNC cannot be understated. The Tar Heels are young and inconsistent, and this match-up provides the opportunity for a quality win that can add some meat to the tournament résumé.

To pull off the upset without those two key Longhorns would not only impress the critics, but it would also give this inexperienced team some confidence heading into conference play. On the other hand, a loss does little to harm reputation. Many observers have already written the obituary on the 2012-13 Texas season, and another loss would likely go unnoticed. Tonight is a low-risk, high-reward situation for these young Longhorns, who have made some key improvements in the last two weeks. Now, fans will get to see what direction the team will be headed in for the next three months.

By the numbers

As usual, the Tar Heels love to get out and push the tempo, with their 75.4 possessions per game the third-fastest adjusted pace in Division I. While no one would confuse North Carolina with the pressure-loving teams of Mike Anderson, the Tar Heels can and do force mistakes, and they are always looking up court after rebounds and made buckets.

With John Henson and Tyler Zeller gone to the NBA, North Carolina is no longer an inside-out team that looks for paint touches every possession. Instead, this year’s Tar Heel squad loves to shoot it from outside. The team takes 28.7% of its shots from behind the arc, up from 23.5% a season ago. While North Carolina is not going to indiscriminately fire up three-pointers, this season definitely features a different approach to the half-court game.

As a result of the new look, North Carolina hardly ever gets to the free throw line. The Heels have a free-throw rate of just 22.6%, meaning they earn about one free throw for every five field goal attempts. That is the fifth-worst mark in all of D-I hoops, but it might actually be good for the sanity of North Carolina’s fans. The Heels have made less than 65% of their shots at the charity stripe, putting them in the bottom third nationally.

When looking at the big picture, the Heels are an imposing bunch on both ends of the court. North Carolina has an adjusted offensive efficiency of 1.08 points per possession, while allowing opponents an adjusted mark of just 0.891 points each time down the floor. Good interior defense and a solid job on the glass are both big components of that defensive dominance.

Meet the Tar Heels

With Kendall Marshall joining Henson and Zeller in this summer’s NBA Draft, the Heels have to rely on freshman Marcus Paige (No. 5) to run the show. The Iowa product is more of a scoring point, which is a marked difference from the pass-first approach that Marshall brought to the table. Paige is still adjusting to the college game, as evidenced by his early problems with turnovers. But after coughing it up four times in his collegiate debut and not logging a single assist, he’s steadily improved that ratio to a 1.36 assist-to-TO mark on the season.

Senior Dexter Strickland (No. 1) has spent much of his collegiate career as the backup point guard in Chapel Hill, and the arrival of Paige allowed him to move off the ball to the shooting guard spot. Still, he can’t completely leave that old role behind. With Paige more of a scoring guard, Strickland has actually taken over the team lead in assists. He’s averaging five per game, and that resurgence as a floor general gives Coach Roy Williams incredible flexibility in the backcourt with a pair of guards that can both run the point and also score in bunches.

Strickland is much better as a slashing, driving guard, but he’s clearly been working on the jump shot. Although he’s only made 26.7% from behind the arc this season, Dexter is still taking the triples and long-range twos a few times each game. That persistence seems to finally be paying off, as his accuracy on mid and long-range jumpers has improved over the last few games.

The third guard for the Tar Heels is 6’7″ sharpshooter Reggie Bullock (No. 35). That height makes it tough for opposing guards and wings to prevent him from launching three-pointers, and he’s more than happy to take advantage. More than 55% of his shots have come from behind the arc this season, and Bullock has knocked down 46.9% of those attempts. He’s not a guy who is going to put the ball on the floor and get to the rack, so opponents have to stay in his shirt and communicate when he’s run off of screens.

Although Bullock is an incredibly dangerous offensive weapon, the team’s new star is sophomore James Michael McAdoo (No. 43). A relative of the great Bob McAdoo, this soft-spoken big man is a handful for opposing defenses. McAdoo has a good post repertoire, a great midrange game, and is a confident, aggressive driver. He also has a quick release and makes swift post moves, so defenses are often caught off-guard when he suddenly pops an uncontested look. McAdoo is tops on the team with 15.4 points per game and 8.3 boards.

The fifth starting spot has belonged to a rotating cast of characters, but it was most occupied by freshman Brice Johnson (No. 11). At 6’9″, the freshman from South Carolina is still very thin and wiry compared to most opposing post players. Still, he has a knack for finding the ball near the rim, and he makes great cuts without the ball to get himself in scoring position. His great hops and athleticism also make him tough on the boards, and he’s already provided some rim-rattling dunks this season. With some more experience and a few more pounds of muscle, Johnson is going to be a very exciting player for the Heels.

The other post option is fellow freshman Joel James (No. 0), a 6’10” big man with a soft touch and a lot of raw talent. He didn’t begin playing organized basketball until his sophomore year of high school, so there’s still a lot of learning on the fly for James. He lets himself get pushed out of position on the blocks and on the boards, so he will have to improve his court awareness and his assertiveness to make a bigger impact for UNC. Self-improvement has been no problem for James, however, a fact he proved by losing more than 50 pounds in one summer. If he applies that mental focus to improving his post game, this skilled big is going to be a beast in the ACC.

Off the bench, P.J. Hairston (No. 15) is a strong, aggressive guard who can put the ball on the floor and get to the rim. At 6’5″ and 220 pounds, he’s a handful for most defenders, and he has the strength to fight through contact. When he’s being confident and decisive, Hairston can take over a game. When he’s not providing that spark for the offense, it clearly shows for North Carolina. He did not make the trip to Indiana after spraining his knee in practice, and the offense sorely missed his ability to create as they were blown out by the Hoosiers.

Leslie McDonald (No. 2) is a junior who also brings a scoring punch off the bench. His 10 points per game is fourth on the team, despite the fact he’s started only one game. McDonald shoots threes even more often than Bullock, having taken nearly 57% of his shots from long range this year. Bullock does top him in one category, though, as McDonald’s 46.7% accuracy is just a bit shy of the team lead.

The final member of the core rotation is freshman J.P. Tokoto (No. 25), a solid defender with a lot of length. Tokoto has an impressive wingspan that he uses to disrupt passing lanes and challenge shots, and his lateral quickness on the perimeter makes it tough to beat him. Like fellow freshman Johnson, Tokoto has athleticism in spades and possesses the ability to jump right out of the gym.

Desmond Hubert (No. 14) and Luke Davis (No. 4) will also likely see limited action in this one. Hubert was the fifth starter for many of the early-season games, but his ineffectiveness in the post has limited him to a reserve role. Davis provides a few minutes per game at the point, and is playing as a walk-on after transferring following his freshman season at Gardner-Webb.

Keys to the game

1) Stop the ball in transition – North Carolina is practically unstoppable when they are piling up the points in transition, as the sophomore class of Longhorns can remember well from their visit to Chapel Hill last season. The Tar Heels are still inconsistent in the half-court set, a fact made glaringly clear in their losses to Butler and Indiana. If Texas can prevent the Tar Heels from getting easy buckets in transition and force them to work for their points in the half court, that already-tough Longhorn D can really stifle the UNC attack.

2) Push McAdoo out of his comfort zone – One player who is especially dangerous even in those half-court sets is the future NBA star McAdoo. If he gets the ball in a post-up situation, he doesn’t even need time to feel up the defender and then make a move. He can quickly spin and pop a jumper, or go right to the effective baby hook. Where he’s most deadly, though, is catching the ball as he’s already moving towards the hoop. With his long legs and one power dribble, he can get to the rim in an instant and finish for two.

For Texas, this means that McAdoo has to be forced off of the blocks and has to receive passes with his back to the hoop or his momentum moving away from the rim. There’s no way Texas can do this on every possession, but if they can force McAdoo into the spots they want him for much of the game, it will certainly limit his effectiveness.

3) Silence the three-point shooters – Shutting down McAdoo won’t make much of a difference if Bullock or McDonald get hot from long range. Both players have proven they can score in a hurry, as McDonald dropped six triples on Mississippi State and another five on UAB, while Bullock has made at least three of them in five different games. Although it can be very hard to prevent the lanky Bullock from getting his shot off, the Longhorns need to chase him off the perimeter and they need to challenge McDonald’s looks.

4) Clean up the defensive glass – Even if Texas can do all of these things on defense, it still will be a futile effort if they don’t close out possessions with defensive rebounds. Fortunately, the Heels have had some major struggles on the offensive glass against quality competition, so the chances are good for the Longhorns.

In UNC’s win over East Carolina on Saturday, not a single Tar Heel post player reclaimed one of his team’s missed shots. It was the third time Carolina was held to an offensive rebounding mark of less than 30%, with the other two coming in losses to Butler and Indiana.

Texas has done an average job so far this season on the defensive glass, but the team is coming off two strong rebounding performances against UCLA and Texas State. The Longhorns held both teams to offensive rebounding marks under 27%, which is impressive when you consider the length on that Bruin squad with the likes of Kyle Anderson and the Wear twins. If the Horns can continue that recent trend tonight, they can keep themselves in this ballgame until the end.

5) Hang on to the ball – As promised, the perennial Key to the Game returns for the North Carolina match-up. While the Heels aren’t a team that is pressuring 100% of the time, they do key in on weaknesses that present opportunities to trap and press. Against a Longhorn team that has frequently turned it over, you can be sure that Coach Williams will throw in a few extra pressure situations to force mistakes and fuel that transition game.

The Longhorns have done a much better job at controlling the basketball in their last two games against UCLA and Texas State, but it will be challenging to do the same against North Carolina tonight. The last time they faced a team with this much length and athleticism, the Longhorns turned it over on 32% of their possessions against Georgetown. If they can avoid that kind of meltdown tonight, the Horns will at least have a chance to pull off an impressive upset.

Last week, ESPN unveiled the bracket of the 2012 EA Sports Maui Invitational, setting the table for three exciting days of November hoops. The Texas Longhorns will open play in Lahaina against host Chaminade before moving on to tackle Illinois or Southern Cal. LRT took an early look at those three teams in part one of our tournament preview.

Today, we look at the other half of the bracket, which includes two teams from last year’s Sweet 16, a program that reached the national title game in both 2010 and 2011, and one team that will be starting from scratch. In late July, there’s no way to know exactly who Texas will face on the last day of the EA Sports Maui Invitational, but we do know it will be one of the teams below.

Butler

After back-to-back appearances in the national championship game, 2011-12 was a complete rebuilding year for Brad Stevens and Butler. Senior Ronald Nored was one of just three seniors, forcing the Bulldogs to rely on young, unproven talent to eat up a lot of the minutes.

The team was as stingy on defense as you would expect for a Stevens-coached squad, but a painfully inept offense made for a very bumpy ride. The Bulldogs were the fifth-worst three-point shooting team in all of D-I hoops, knocking down just 27.2% of their long-range attempts. With opponents able to sag off the perimeter, inside scoring was also difficult for Butler. For much of the season, it seemed like the best offense for the Bulldogs was just crashing the glass, where they reclaimed 35% of their misses.

This season, immediate help on the perimeter comes in the form of Rotnei Clarke, the former Arkansas sharpshooter who transferred when Mike Anderson arrived in Fayetteville. In his three years as a Razorback, Clarke hit 42% of his threes and averaged just over one foul per 40 minutes. For a defensive-minded basketball team with perimeter issues, Clarke is a godsend.

Incoming freshman Kellen Dunham will also bring relief in the backcourt. A four-star recruit from Indiana, the 6’5″ guard is a long-range gunner with a reputation for constantly working to get free off the ball. His presence will hopefully open up the floor a bit for a Butler team that really struggled to find open looks last season.

The one Bulldog who could create his own looks was Chrishawn Hopkins. Now a junior, Hopkins can consistently put the ball on the floor and get points. Although he’s just 6’1″, he’s a very athletic guard who can light it up in a hurry and he seems primed for a breakout season.

If the Bulldogs want to keep everyone in their familiar positions from last season, the growth of Australian Jackson Aldridge is key. A lightning-quick point guard, Aldridge played only about 14 minutes per game in relief of Nored last season. If he can make the typical leap from freshman to sophomore year, it will allow Hopkins to play more off the ball and focus on scoring.

In the frontcourt, the Bulldogs could still be a bit undersized at times. Although center Andrew Smith is 6’11”, Butler’s best lineup in 2011-12 had 6’4″ Roosevelt Jones and 6’6″ Khyle Marshall at the three and the four. Jones is very strong for his size, and rebounds exceptionally well from his position on the wing. Marshall also outrebounded many taller opponents, thanks in large part to exceptional hops. He’s thrown down more than a few highlight-reel alley-oops, and is bound to provide even more in the future.

Off the bench, 6’9″ forwards Kameron Woods and Erik Fromm played significant minutes in 2011-12 and earned a combined 16 starts. Fromm proved to be a solid offensive rebounder, but often looked awkward and stiff in post-up situations. If either big man has developed into a serviceable power forward over the summer, Butler will be able to match up better against more traditional lineups.

Marquette

The Bulldogs will open island play in the EA Sports Maui Invitational against a talented Marquette squad looking to replace some very big contributors. Fresh off the school’s second-place finish in the deep Big East, Buzz Williams and the Golden Eagles must quickly figure out how to replace the scoring, rebounding, and leadership of Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom.

While losing two AP All-Americans is certainly a major blow, the Golden Eagles will still have the experienced backcourt of Vander Blue and Junior Cadougan. The latter is a seasoned point guard who averaged 5.4 assists per game and posted an impressive assist rate of 32.4%. Blue is an off-guard with a very quick first step, who consistently uses it to get to the rim despite not being a three-point threat.

Both of the starting guards are excellent at feeding the post, which will be huge with the return of Jamil Wilson and Davante Gardner. The pair of rising juniors combined to average 16.6 points and 9.4 boards last season, with Gardner typically coming off of the bench. Wilson proved to be a relentless shot blocker, adding another tough interior defender to a squad that will also have 6’11” Texan Chris Otule inside. With a wingspan of 7’5″, Otule blocked 55 shots as a sophomore in 2010-11, the most for a Golden Eagle in 14 years. An ACL injury limited him to just eight games last year, but he will assuredly be back in top form for his senior campaign.

Marquette could also welcome back guard Todd Mayo, younger brother of NBA player O.J. Mayo. He hasn’t been taking part in any of the team’s summer activities, and Coach Williams confirmed to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel in late June that Mayo was serving an indefinite suspension.

Very quick and crafty, Mayo would sometimes get himself into trouble last season by playing a bit out of control. He posted more turnovers than assists on the year, but was showing steady improvement throughout the season. If he can work his way back from this latest off-the-court setback, Mayo should be able to take on a bigger role as a sophomore.

The Golden Eagles also added Arizona State star Trent Lockett, who transferred to Marquette to be closer to his mother, who was diagnosed with cancer. Lockett graduated from ASU in three years and will be immediately available for Marquette, giving Coach Williams an incredibly talented senior wing to add to an already very solid backcourt. With the Sun Devils, Lockett often had to do everything, even having to pick up point guard duties when Keala King was dismissed in the middle of the season. On a much deeper Marquette squad, Lockett won’t be the focus of opposing defenses, and he should have a very impressive senior year.

The Golden Eagles will also bring in a two-man freshman class, highlighted by four-star prospect Steve Taylor. The 6’7″ small forward won three state titles in high school and possesses both a strong perimeter game and good rebounding skills. While much less heralded, Jamal Ferguson is a 6’4″ slashing wing with a lot of length. On a Marquette team that uses defense to fuel offense, that length on the perimeter should lead to some quality minutes off the bench.

Mississippi State

Most new coaches inherit rebuilding projects when they sign on the dotted line. Mississippi State’s Rick Ray hardly even inherited anything.

Gone from last year’s Bulldog squad are point guard Dee Bost, big man Arnett Moultrie, and the oft-maligned and often-fed Renardo Sidney. Reserve point guard DeVille Smith and athletic wingman Rodney Hood both also hit the road, in search of greener pastures at other schools. Smith landed at Southwest CC in Mississippi, while Hood will sit out a year before playing for Duke.

With the mass exodus, that leaves just two players who saw meaningful minutes in the 2011-12 season: junior guard Jalen Steele and senior center Wendell Lewis. The pair combined to average 44.7 minutes, 12.5 points, and 5.8 boards and saw the court in all 33 of Mississippi State’s games.

As a result, there’s an immediate infusion of new blood in Starkville. The Bulldogs have five incoming freshmen, highlighted by 6’4″ shooting guard Fred Thomas, a Mississippi product. Coach Ray also welcomes a pair of juco transfers in forward Colin Borchert and point guard Trivante Bloodman, both of whom will be called on to make a quick impact.

Unfortunately, the first class of the Rick Ray era is off to a very rough start. Freshman shooting guard Craig Sword was arrested last Sunday for having a BB gun in his dorm room, which is a misdemeanor. Coach Ray has said that punishment will be handled in-house, before the start of the season.

While Sword won’t miss any playing time, freshman point guard Jacoby Davis is expected to miss the entire 2012-13 campaign after tearing his ACL in an individual workout last Monday. The loss of Davis puts even more pressure on Bloodman, and further depletes a young backcourt filled with questions.

It’s going to be a long first season for Coach Ray and the Bulldog faithful. With North Carolina up first for Mississippi State, the Maui Invitational will likely be a rude welcome to college hoops for this very young team.

North Carolina

Although the Tar Heels lost Harrison Barnes, John Henson, Kendall Marshall, and Tyler Zeller to the NBA, don’t think that hard times are ahead in Chapel Hill. Instead, Roy Williams has reloaded with a consensus top-five recruiting class and welcomes back future NBA star James Michael McAdoo, P.J. Hairston, Dexter Strickland, Reggie Bullock and Leslie McDonald. You’ll have to forgive the rest of the ACC if they aren’t feeling any sympathy for fans of the powder blue.

McAdoo flirted with the idea of going pro after his freshman season, but the stout 6’9″ sophomore decided to build off of his success in the NCAA tournament and return to another elite North Carolina team in 2012-13. McAdoo is a strong, stout guy who is fearless on the glass, yet still has handles and agility that seem unfair for someone his size. There were times that he seemed to be tentative on last year’s team, but with the Big Four now off to the NBA, his role is clearly defined. If he plays up to potential, McAdoo could be a household name before conference play even tips off.

Like McAdoo, Hairston is another talented player who came off the bench last season. While he could have been a starter at most schools, the 6’6″ wing waited his turn and should be a star in his sophomore campaign. He made an early impact for UNC by knocking down 8-of-16 from behind the arc in the two-game Las Vegas Invitational. His shot was very streaky throughout the season, however, and he finished with just a 27% mark from long range. If he can get more consistent results as a sophomore, the Heels will be tough to defend.

Shooting guard Bullock has already found that consistency on his three-point looks, knocking down 38.2% of his attempts last year. He stepped up following Strickland’s ACL tear in January, and was a huge reason why the Tar Heels didn’t miss a beat.

If Strickland is back to full strength, opponents will once again be hounded by his hard-nosed, lockdown defense on the perimeter. Even though he averaged just over 24 minutes per game, Strickland led the team in steals per game and was typically assigned to shut down the opponent’s best perimeter player.

Strickland isn’t the only Tar Heel guard to be returning from injury in 2012-13, as McDonald will also be ready to play after missing all of last season to rehab from knee surgery. With McDonald bringing yet another three-point threat to the table, the Heels will force opponents to extend the defense, hopefully opening things up for a less-experienced frontcourt.

With so many returning guards and wings, the only real concern in the UNC backcourt is at the point. Marshall was a rare talent, one whose court vision and smart passes made the Tar Heel offense click even on those nights that their jump shots weren’t falling. Strickland has also played the one in the past for Carolina, but incoming freshman Marcus Paige is the top-ranked point guard in the 2012 class. There are always growing pains for freshmen, but having a talented cast surrounding Paige — not to mention an upperclassman mentor in Strickland — should ease the transition. He’s spent the summer rehabbing from a stress fracture, but should be fully healed and ready to go before Midnight Madness.

The much bigger questions loom in the frontcourt, where Carolina will have to get immediate results from some highly-ranked freshmen. Brice Johnson and Joel James are both four-star prospects who should see some major minutes alongside McAdoo. James has already made headlines on Tobacco Road by dropping more than 50 pounds over the last 18 months, molding himself into a 260-pound monster described by Coach Williams as “a big rascal who’s gotten less big.” In Carolina’s transition attack, he’ll be required to run the floor, a skill that made Zeller so deadly for the Heels. With enough conditioning, he could make headlines as a freshman.

Although it’s still far too early to tell how the eight Maui teams will look by November, Carolina looks to be the favorite. If Texas can take care of business on its half of the bracket, the Longhorns and Tar Heels could tangle for EA Sports Maui Invitational title just a few weeks before their scheduled meeting at the Erwin Center.

Coming into Wednesday night’s showdown with North Carolina, it was clear that the Longhorns had a very tough match-up on their hands. The Tar Heels had the size advantage at every position, much more experience, a roster full of future NBA players, and a rowdy home crowd of nearly 22,000 thirsty for revenge.

Even with that deck of cards stacked against the Longhorns, it was tough to see this kind of destruction coming. A seven-minute field goal drought in the first half put Texas in a big hole, and North Carolina just kept shoveling more dirt on top of them. The Tar Heels built a lead as big as 24 points in the second half, toying with the Longhorns all night as they repeatedly added footage to the team highlight reel, cruising to an 82-63 win.

What looked good

In a game as one-sided as this, it can be tough to find the bright spots. Coach Rick Barnes was frustrated from the opening tip, as the Longhorns failed to even run their scripted first play correctly. Regardless, there were still some brief moments of success, giving fans something to take away from the beating.

Although the Longhorns gave up 42 points in the paint, they actually did remarkably good defensive work on Carolina big man Tyler Zeller in post-up situations. Alexis Wangmene and Clint Chapman held him to 2-of-7 shooting in the first half and 3-of-11 overall. When the Longhorns didn’t completely lose Zeller in the half-court, his offense was mostly limited to turnaround jumpers and his trademark hook shot, which simply wasn’t falling last night.

Texas also turned in a good effort on the offensive glass, but had very little to show for it. The Longhorns reclaimed 38.6% of their missed shots, a very good mark against a sizable Carolina squad that has only allowed opponents a 30.5% offensive rebounding percentage this season. Unfortunately, Texas shot just 13-of-31 from the paint, missing far too many easy ones.

Freshman Jaylen Bond was a big reason why the Longhorns were able to succeed on the offensive glass, as he put in his third-straight solid effort off the bench. Bond grabbed 22.7% of his offensive rebounding opportunities, pushing his season mark up to 13.7%, sixth-best in the Big 12, and just outside of the Top 100 nationally. In his last three games, Jaylen has grabbed 29 total boards while averaging just over 20 minutes per game. One can only hope that his relentless work on the glass will translate into even more playing time as conference play begins.

What needed work

While there were a few bright spots, there were far too many problem areas that could be addressed. Rather than try to beat Tolstoy in a word-count battle, we’ll focus on some of the most egregious ones.

As previously mentioned, the Longhorns were incredibly ineffective in the paint, only turning their extended possessions into more missed shots. For all of the good things Chapman had done defensively, his ineptitude from within two feet was infuriating. His final line was 1-of-6 shooting, with all of those misses coming from within spitting distance of the rim.

The Longhorns also did a terrible job protecting the basketball, a stat that is even more troubling considering how infrequently Carolina had turned its opponents over prior to this game. Texas gave it up 13 times, resulting in 17 Tar Heel points, but also had numerous bad bounces go against them. Time after time, Longhorn players bobbled loose balls or batted rebounds out of bounds or to the other team. If the Dean Dome weren’t so loud and bathed in powder blue, it would have felt like being in a Buster Keaton film.

The worst results, however, came on the defensive glass. While the Longhorns did a great job defending Zeller in the post, it seemed like every one of his missed shots resulted in a weak-side rebound and putback. The Tar Heels grabbed 56.4% of their missed shots, a number that is practically unheard of. In fact, the 43.6% of the defensive rebounds that Texas did manage to grab added up to the worst performance for a Longhorn team in at least 12 years. Unfortunately, that’s as far back as the tempo-free stats at KenPom and Stat Sheet go, so there’s no telling just how historically awful that number actually is.

Finally, Longhorn fans might also start worrying about the point guard situation. Myck Kabongo once again had a terrible start to the game, leading Coach Barnes to openly voice his frustrations with the freshman guard in the post-game presser. “We’re going to get guys in here that want to play,” the coach told the media. “I’ve been doing this a long time. I’ve never seen a guy who wouldn’t want to be in this atmosphere.”

Kabongo was dealing with a bad back in this game, and his playing time was limited to an ineffective 15 minutes. There’s no telling how much of that was due to injury and how much was due to Barnes’ frustration. Fans have to hope it was the former, and that the injury can heal quickly. While Myck has started slowly in nearly every game, there’s no question that the Longhorn offense is infinitely better when he’s on the floor and clicking.

With Kabongo on the bench for a majority of the game, Texas handed the reins to freshman guard Sterling Gibbs. While he has proven himself to be mostly serviceable as the backup point, Gibbs still has major issues with any hard traps. Carolina took advantage of this on a few second half possessions, bull-rushing the guard with two lengthy bigs well beyond the perimeter. By the time conference play starts on January 4th, opponents will have picked up on this fact and are sure to put added pressure on Gibbs when he’s running the point.

The big picture

In the grand scheme of things, this doesn’t change much. While the game was tough to watch and the result was more lopsided than some may have expected, only the certifiably insane believed that such a young Texas team had a strong chance to knock off this Carolina team on the road.

The Longhorns will likely enter conference play at 10-3, as only Rice remains on the non-con docket. Twenty wins is often pointed to as a magic number for making the NCAA field, but Texas lacks quality victories in their non-league slate. Last weekend’s win over Temple will hold weight, but outside of that, the Horns can only hang their hat on a road win against a UCLA team that was unraveling at the time.

Texas is going to have to defend its home court once Big 12 play begins, stealing a few wins against the likes of Baylor, Kansas, Missouri, or A&M. The Big 12 is definitely down this year, so anything short of 10-8 in conference play could mean the end of the school’s 13-year NCAA tournament appearance streak.

Up next: vs. Rice (7-4); 1 P.M., Saturday, Dec. 31st

On April 6th, John Henson and Tyler Zeller announced their intentions to return and chase a national championship at North Carolina. It was just the first in a series of announcements by high-profile players, all surefire NBA picks, who were spurning the allure of the League for another year as Big Man on Campus.

Jared Sullinger of Ohio State and Perry Jones III of Baylor also elected to return to school, while Kentucky’s Terrence Jones withdrew his name after testing the waters. And then, just less than two weeks after Henson and Zeller made their joint announcement, Harrison Barnes made the Tar Heels the prohibitive preseason No. 1 when he passed on the NBA and returned to Chapel Hill.

Texas had their own trio of stars mulling their draft fate, but with the wave of big-name players returning elsewhere, Longhorn fans had reason to be optimistic. If Jordan Hamilton, Tristan Thompson, and Cory Joseph made the same three-man pact that Barnes, Zeller, and Henson had made, there was no doubt that tonight’s match-up between the two teams would be a titanic clash of teams in the Top 10.

It was not to be. Instead, the Longhorns enter tonight’s game at Chapel Hill with a young, rebuilding squad. Texas is unranked as they head into the Dean E. Smith Center, a place where the Tar Heels have knocked off the last 71 unranked non-conference opponents they’ve faced. Although the Longhorns have won the last four meetings between these two schools — a streak dating back to 1995 — the odds of that success continuing tonight are very, very slim.

By the numbers

The Tar Heels are an imposing bunch, not just in person, but also on paper. Their offense is seventh-best in the country when measured by adjusted efficiency, putting in 1.155 points each time down the floor. Lest opponents think they can simply get into a shootout with the Tar Heels, it must also be noted that the defense is nearly top-ten caliber, as well. The UNC defense is 11th-best in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing just 0.872 points per possession.

The Tar Heels love to get out and run, playing at an adjusted tempo that is currently third-fastest in the nation. UNC averages 74.5 possessions per game, and the team has played two games this season with more than 85 possessions. The Longhorns have proven that they will engage in a track meet against other up-tempo squads, so the points should come quickly and often in tonight’s contest.

Although North Carolina runs at a high pace, the team takes excellent care of the basketball. The Tar Heels are 14th in the country in turnover percentage, giving it up on just 16.7% of their possessions. In addition to valuing the ball, the Tar Heels also extend possessions with an offensive rebounding mark of 38.8%, a percentage that ranks in the top 30 of D-I hoops.

On defense, North Carolina’s imposing front line makes it incredibly difficult to score. Henson and Zeller block and alter numerous shots from the Tar Heel opponents, but most importantly they do it without fouling. UNC has the best defensive free-throw rate in the nation, allowing less than one free throw for every five opponent field goals.

The only one of Dean Oliver’s Four Factors that the Tar Heels don’t excel in is their defensive turnover percentage. North Carolina is one of the worst 100 teams in D-I hoops when it comes to forcing opponent miscues, a stat that makes their up-tempo success even more impressive. The Tar Heels simply run the floor better than their opponents, and are always looking to immediately move the ball up the court after both makes and misses.

Meet the Tar Heels

A big reason why that North Carolina transition game is so effective is lefty point guard Kendall Marshall (No. 5). When Texas faced the Heels in Greensboro last December, North Carolina still had Larry Drew at the point. Following his sudden departure for UCLA, Coach Roy Williams was forced to up Marshall’s minutes, and the Tar Heels immediately improved, starting a run that would end in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament.

Marshall is averaging more than 10 assists per game and is the catalyst for an offense fueled by future NBA talent. While he often dishes dimes that are eye-popping, he typically just makes the smart, simple pass while putting the ball right in the shooting pocket of his teammates. He also has an incredible ability to make the lengthy pass up-court in transition, a skill that comes in handy with a teammate like Zeller who runs the floor so well.

Marshall also seems to have prescient court vision, making passes that look like hockey one-timers. It is not uncommon to see him make passes where it is clear that he already had a target picked out before he even had the ball passed into his own hands. It’s also worth noting that while Marshall is not much of a threat to shoot jumpers, he will still drive the lane if presented with the opportunity.

Joining Marshall in the backcourt is junior guard Dexter Strickland (No. 1), who has become the team’s lockdown perimeter defender. He is tied for the team lead with 14 steals, but his biggest contribution comes in making an opposing guard’s stat line look ugly. Look for Strickland to be tasked with shutting down J’Covan Brown tonight, who leads the Longhorns with more than 19 points per game.

While Strickland has made a name for himself defensively, he’s still a threat on the offensive end. He is a quality slashing guard who can get to the rim or stop on a dime to knock down a pull-up J. His smart shot selection has given him a team-leading 57.6% field goal mark, and he’s averaging more than eight points per game.

If opponents can manage to get past Strickland, there’s even more defensive talent waiting in the frontcourt. John Henson (No. 31) — a former player at Round Rock High just outside of Austin — averages just over 3.4 blocks per game. His 7’4″ wingspan makes him a threat to block practically every shot that is taken in or near the paint, and as Luke Winn showed in an early-season Power Rankings column, he can quickly cover long distances to do so. He’s also a handful on inbounds plays from the baseline, as his height and wingspan take away any inside scoring plays and essentially force opponents to settle for a long lob to a backpedaling guard.

Henson also worked on his midrange game in the summer, and while he still has some issues with the baseline jumper, there’s no question he has improved. When he’s clicking and knocking down those 15-footers, North Carolina becomes even more dangerous.

Joining Henson inside is 7-footer Tyler Zeller (No. 44), a quality big man who has had his college career dogged by injuries during his first three years. As mentioned above, he runs the floor really well, which leads to a lot of easy buckets when Marshall finds him in transition. Even when those fast break points don’t materialize, the hustle allows Zeller to establish early post position, and his point guard usually finds him for the easy look. Once he gets the ball in the paint, Zeller’s array of post moves make him practically impossible to stop, a fact opposing fans quickly learn when he drills his first jump hook.

Defensively, Zeller’s height is difficult to game plan for. He stands tall and moves well laterally, so opposing players who can’t get position on him prior to the entry pass stand little chance of scoring. Of course, even when he is out of position, the excellent help D from Henson still makes it tough for opponents to score inside. Zeller is also extremely talented at picking up charging fouls, so Brown and Myck Kabongo will have to be careful when they attack the lane tonight.

Even with all that talent we’ve already covered, the Tar Heels still have a bigger star in the starting five. Harrison Barnes (No. 40) is an all-around stud, and he currently leads the team with 16.1 points per game and a 48.5% success rate from behind the arc. If there were a stat to track jumpers from just inside the arc, he’d likely be one of the national leaders in that category, too. Barnes is especially skilled at taking the ball on the perimeter, making one strong dribble towards the hoop, and then drilling a pull-up jumper.

Barnes has always been a quality jump shooter, but he worked on his handles and strength this summer, and is now able to slash to the rim with even more success. For a numerical perspective on that improvement, consider his free-throw rates. As a freshman, Barnes posted an FTR of 24.9%, or roughly one free throw earned for every four field goals attempted. This season, his FTR has climbed to 38.9%, or roughly two free throws for every five field goal attempts. He’s putting the ball on the floor more often this year, and earning more trips to the line as a result.

With a starting five that talented, the Tar Heels really only have to go three deep off the bench. Of course, since we’re talking about North Carolina, those bench players would likely be starters at most other schools.

Reggie Bullock (No. 35) is a three-point marksman who is fourth on the team with 9.2 points per game despite averaging less than 18 minutes. He is very quick on the catch-and-shoot, so the Longhorns can’t afford to lose him for even a moment on defense, especially with a point guard like Marshall who can find him immediately.

Freshman forward James Michael McAdoo (No. 43) is already built like an upperclassman, and he is making an impact off the bench. Averaging just 14 minutes per game, McAdoo still grabs about four rebounds per game and chips in roughly six points.

Fellow freshman P.J. Hairston (No. 15) is a shooting guard in a small forward’s body, checking in at 6’6″ and 220 pounds. He is a threat to shoot from outside, as he proved in the two-game Las Vegas Invitational at the end of November. Against South Carolina and UNLV, Hairston went 8-for-13 from long range and scored 34 total points. He’s now averaging 8.3 per game, but has seen his three-point percentage come back down to Earth, where it now sits at a still-impressive 38.8%.

Senior Justin Watts (No. 24) has also made an appearance in every game this season, but is averaging less than six minutes per game. He’s a high-energy player who provides a few minutes of good defense and work on the glass.

Keys to the game

For a young Longhorn team that has six freshmen on the roster, tonight’s game will be a completely new experience. Although they earned a road win against UCLA, the L.A. Sports Arena was nearly empty and there was little energy in the building. Tonight, the Dean Dome will be packed full with more than 21,000 fans who want nothing more than merciless revenge for the pair of Texas victories over UNC in the last two years. While the Tar Heels have proven to be fallible in losses to UNLV and Kentucky, Texas will have to play a nearly flawless game to escape Chapel Hill with a win tonight.

1) Clean the offensive glass – The Longhorns have steadily improved in this department all season, although one has to wonder how much their stats have been augmented by a weak string of opponents. Texas is ranked 13th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, reclaiming 40.4% of their missed shots.

While the Tar Heels are equally good on the defensive glass, they have had some issues giving up the offensive boards and second-chance points. Michigan State grabbed nearly 46% of their missed shots in the Carrier Classic, while the Kentucky Wildcats reclaimed more than 41% of their misses in Lexington at the beginning of the month. It’s obvious Alexis Wangmene, Clint Chapman, and Jaylen Bond aren’t on the same level as Derrick Nix, Draymond Green, or Anthony Davis, but the Longhorns can really help their chances by extending possessions with offensive boards.

2) Get back on defense – Combine this key to the game with the previous one, and you will quickly see the strategic difficulties inherent in facing this North Carolina squad. If your team crashes the offensive glass, it only serves to help the already-potent Tar Heel transition game. Sell out to stop transition defense by leaving just one or two offensive rebounders, and you’ll likely have a lot of one-shot possessions. While it’s practically impossible for Texas to completely shut down the transition game and still earn any offensive boards, the Longhorns will have to limit the damage on the break and secondary break.

3) Knock down the three-pointers – The Longhorns have been especially cold from long range in recent games, so fans can only hope that it means they are due for a great performance tonight. Texas made just 2-of-17 from long range in Saturday’s win over Temple, and the team has hit only 20.5% of their three-point attempts in the last two games.

North Carolina, meanwhile, has had some difficulties defending the perimeter. In their loss to UNLV, the Runnin’ Rebels were able to knock down 13 three-pointers. UNLV found the most success on the drive-and-kick, but also were able to get open looks when the Tar Heels doubled the ballhandler on perimeter screens and fell victim to a simple throwback to the screener.

Kabongo has really improved over the last few weeks, logging quite a few assists each night courtesy of the drive-and-kick. He’ll likely find many opportunities to do that against UNC tonight, so the Longhorn shooters have to take advantage of those open looks if they hope to pull off a monumental upset.

With just seconds left in the game, Cory Joseph had a chance for redemption as he dribbled at the top of the key against North Carolina’s Dexter Strickland. Just a month earlier, Joseph threw up a prayer of a shot that could have tied the game against Pittsburgh at the buzzer. That night, the ball went nowhere near the basket. Now, with time running out against the Tar Heels, Coach Rick Barnes wanted his guard to attack the rim, draw a foul, and win it at the free-throw line. The freshman had a different idea.

Standing near the free-throw line, Joseph pumped, getting Strickland to bite on the fake, then spun for a turnaround jumper. The crowd of 20,787 held its collective breath in anticipation, as the shot seemed to hang in the air for eternity. When the ball finally sailed through the net, the Greensboro Coliseum’s powder-blue contingent fell completely silent.

The clutch shot provided an exciting conclusion to a back-and-forth affair, and came just seconds after Carolina superfrosh Harrison Barnes had knotted the game with a three. Both teams had monumental runs in the see-saw battle, with Texas claiming a lead as large as ten before Carolina erased the deficit and built a seven-point run of their own.

For the Longhorns, the 78-76 victory gave them a quality road win in a hostile environment, an experience the young team needed with road games against Kansas, Baylor, and Texas A&M waiting in conference play. It also marked the fourth straight time that Texas defeated North Carolina, a string dating back to the 1995 season.

What looked good

Jordan Hamilton had another excellent game, scoring a team-high 24 points, including a 4-of-7 mark from behind the arc. He seemed to thrive on the pressure, making four straight points when the team trailed by seven early in the second half. After his three-pointer pulled the Longhorns within two just minutes later, he openly celebrated and shot a Kobe-esque stare at his defender as they headed back down the court.

Joseph was the second-leading scorer for the team, setting a new career-high with his 21-point performance. It marked the fourth time in the last six games that the freshman has bested his previous high-water mark, and it gave him a 19.3 PPG average over his last three contests. Cory’s increased confidence over the last month is a huge development for a Longhorn team that often has lineups with only two or three quality scorers on the floor at a time.

In this particular game, the Longhorns were hampered by foul trouble from the start, making Joseph’s gutsy performance even more important. With Matt Hill, Dogus Balbay, and Alexis Wangmene forced to play a combined 52 minutes thanks to the foul issues, the Longhorns had to have their capable scorers step up. Joseph’s willingness to shoulder the load is going to be huge when Texas inevitably faces the same depth issues later in the season.

While Hill and Wangmene didn’t light up the scoreboard, they both played remarkably well for being thrust into a high-pressure situation against a talented North Carolina frontcourt. Wangmene had the best game of his career with Texas, grabbing nine boards — five of them on the offensive glass — while playing solid defense against the likes of Tyler Zeller and John Henson.

Hill picked up some unnecessary fouls early and was beating himself up for the mistakes. During one first-half timeout, he even looked as his dad in the stands and mouthed “dumb fouls” as he shook his head in disgust. But Hill bounced back from the early setbacks, adjusted to the physical play down low, and managed to contribute four points and four boards on the afternoon.

Most importantly, the Longhorns showed incredible poise in coming back to win the game. It would have been very easy for the team to fold after blowing their 10-point lead during a 29-12 Carolina run, especially in front of a frenzied crowd of more than 20,000. Instead, Texas chipped away at the lead and made the key plays down the stretch to secure an impressive road win.

What needed work

The biggest problem for the Longhorns came in the form of foul trouble. Having so many players pick up boneheaded fouls served to handcuff Barnes when it came to lineups, and it resulted in some really disappointing offensive results. Over the last seven and a half minutes of the first half, Texas made just two baskets, including one stretch of 4:10 without a basket. The offensive impotence allowed UNC to erase a 10-point Texas advantage and even take a one-point lead to the break. Fortunately, Carolina had their own lengthy scoring drought during that time, or else the results might have been even more disastrous for Texas.

Tristan Thompson picked up a pair of fouls within the first three minutes of each half, and as a result he spent 24 of the first 29 minutes of the game on the bench. He drew one whistle by trying to tap at the ball on a rebound he was out of position on, and was tagged with another foul by playing too aggressively on defense 17 feet from the basket. Perhaps the freshman was too amped up for a road game against a big-name opponent, but he has to play smarter basketball. He should be commended for making a difference down the stretch while playing with four fouls, but in the future he must avoid the brain-lock that limited his minutes in this game.

The Longhorns also had a hard time climbing the mountain during their comeback because they were giving up far too many easy points inside. Time and again, Texas failed to box out on the weak side, giving Carolina too many extra possessions. In fact, four different Tar Heel buckets in the second half were scored on tip-ins and putbacks.

In addition, transition defense for the Longhorns was uncharacteristically pathetic. Nobody stopped the ball as the UNC guards flew down the court, and it resulted in far too many easy layups. On the rare occasion a Texas big would recognize the situation and flash out to stop the play, the late response left other Tar Heels open for midrange jumpers or threes.

One final thing that was troubling in this game was that the Longhorns threw two or three inbounds passes directly into the near corner. Naturally, the Tar Heels immediately collapsed into a double team, which was especially effective with the length on their roster. Texas is going to face some very nasty, high-pressure defenses in Big 12 play, so this is a habit that must be broken. There’s simply no reason to waste possessions or time on the shot clock by passing into an easy double-team situation where the sideline acts as a third defender.

Up next: at #15/14 Michigan State (8-3)