The Longhorns suffered a frustrating loss at the hands of their biggest rivals on Saturday night, dropping their Big 12 opener to Oklahoma. Texas was already going to have a hard time reaching .500 in conference play, and in turn getting to the magical 20-win plateau, especially in such a deep league. Losing a home game against another mid-tier team makes those goals even tougher for Texas to achieve, and it means that an extra win is going to have to be picked off on the road at some point. Tonight’s road game in Stillwater would not be a prime opportunity to earn that win back. Although Oklahoma State is coming off a loss in its own conference opener, the team is one of the top candidates to win the 2014 league crown. With a loaded, athletic lineup that can score in bunches and play stifling defense, the Cowboys will be tough to beat anywhere, much less at home. Add in the fact that Oklahoma State desperately wants to avoid an 0-2 start in conference, and the Longhorns clearly have their work cut out for them tonight. Players to watch Marcus Smart (No. 33) – If you’ve watched any college basketball in the last two seasons, you know who Smart is. A natural leader with a ton of talents, Smart brings some size and strength to the point guard role at 6’4″ and 220 pounds. He can guard multiple positions, has quick hands on defense, and is easily able to get to the rack. Excellent court vision helps him set up his athletic teammates all over the court, and solid body control allows Smart to make some highlight buckets on very difficult looks. Smart also has range beyond the perimeter, but he needs to demonstrate better shot selection. Far too often, he forces shots with a defender in his face, and not at all in the flow of the offense. For a guy who was a surefire NBA lottery pick last year, you can’t help but feel that he’s trying to prove to scouts that he has a skill which really isn’t in his toolkit. At just a 31.5% success rate from beyond the arc, Smart needs to only shoot the three when he’s open and when it’s in rhythm. It’s also worth keeping an eye on Smart’s foul situation tonight. The sophomore still has a tendency to pick up silly fouls that limit his playing time, which could be a major concern tonight if Stevie Clark is still unavailable. Clark was suspended for four games in late November and was also arrested last Wednesday for marijuana possession. He was not officially suspended a second time for that arrest, but was held out of the loss to Kansas State on Saturday. The Cowboys have a short bench, so if their backup point guard is still out of action, Smart cannot afford to be whistled for careless fouls. Markel Brown (No. 22) – Although Smart gets all the press, Brown is one of the nation’s best scorers. He also is a great shot blocker at the guard position, having swatted nearly 100 shots in his career. Brown really elevates for his smooth jumper, and he consistently knocks down 17-footers coming off of curls and pindown screens. Although Oklahoma State often works to get him free without the ball, he can also easily create his own looks with the rock in his hand, making him a very difficult cover. With Clark’s availability in question, Brown can also be relied upon to run the point when Smart is out of the game, but he’s at his best playing off the ball, keeping the defense busy fighting through OSU’s constant screening action. Le’Bryan Nash (No. 2) – Nash came to Stillwater as a highly-touted prospect on the wing, but really struggled living up to his hype as a freshman. Although he’s an athletic guy with great slashing ability, Nash would hang out near the perimeter far too often, content with putting up long jumpers. Last year, Nash began to evolve as a sophomore, attacking the basket with more regularity. This year, he’s now consistently using his driving ability to get to the rack, not only piling up points, but also racking up fouls against the defenders unlucky enough to get tasked with containing him. The best defensive gameplan I’ve seen against Nash this year came from Colorado, which used primarily a man-to-man defense. Although they allowed Nash to be matched up one-on-one on the perimeter, help defense immediately doubled him when he put the ball on the floor, exposing his weakness as a passer. Nash’s size is going to be a problem for the Longhorns to contain, as they lack a true wing and will naturally give up a few inches at that position. A similar approach utilizing aggressive doubling could help to negate that advantage for Nash and OSU. Phil Forte (No. 13) – Friends with Smart since the fourth grade, Forte was recruited to Oklahoma State to fill the role of departing sharpshooter Keiton Page. Forte has played that part beautifully, sinking nearly 49% of his three-point attempts this season. Oklahoma State has so many good scoring options available on the floor at once that opponents often lose track of Forte and give him open looks. With Texas coming off a game in which the Sooners went 13-for-28 from long range, one would think that the Horns will pay close attention to the perimeter. If they don’t, Forte could try to challenge OU’s three-point numbers all by himself. Keys to the game 1) Attack the basket – With Oklahoma State now down to a rotation of just six players — or seven, if Clark plays — foul trouble could quickly put the Cowboys in a pickle. They have a lot of length on the perimeter and interchangeable players who can switch most screens, so simple dribble penetration could be difficult. The Longhorns can’t be frustrated by a solid Oklahoma State defense early and simply give up on attacking with the bounce. 2) Play inside out – If the Horns have a hard time attacking the gaps in the OSU defense, they hopefully can get things going by exploiting their size inside. Now that big man Michael Cobbins (No. 20) is out for the year, the Cowboys have a very thin frontcourt and are giving up some defensive skill by having to increase the role for Kamari Murphy (No. 21). Against Kansas State, OSU’s solution was a lot of doubling in the post. Texas bigs have had some problems against double-teams this season, including their last game against Oklahoma. Cameron Ridley, Connor Lammert, and Prince Ibeh need to be confident with the ball and make quick passes when the defense collapses, while the guards need to be filling that vacated space and cutting to the hoop. This also offers a great opportunity for Damarcus Croaker to be a deadly role player if he spots up in the short corner for kickout opportunities. 3) Clean up the glass – That size advantage also offers a great opportunity for Texas to earn second-chance points with a strong showing on the glass. However, the Cowboys do get solid rebounding from their guards and wings, so the Longhorn backcourt has to do its part in finding bodies to box out. Rebounding will also be key on the defensive end for Texas, as Oklahoma State is such a good shooting team that the Horns cannot afford to give them second chances when they do actually miss. |
Although it has been more than 10 weeks since the Texas Longhorns have put together a winning streak, the team still enters this afternoon’s showdown with Oklahoma State riding some momentum. Thanks to a furious 22-point comeback in the final eight minutes, Texas stormed back against rival Oklahoma on Wednesday night, eventually earning a 92-86 victory in overtime. The emotional comeback rejuvenated a team that looked to be sleepwalking on defense for the first 30 minutes, and it energized the bench in a way seen only a few times in this disastrous season. The victory also gave the team some confidence as it heads down the home stretch of the season, although it’s possible Coach Rick Barnes may have been a bit too caught up in the moment. “I don’t think there’s a team in the country that wants to play Texas,” he told reporters after the game. While the proud coach may have overstated things, it’s undeniable that the Longhorns have looked like a different team since the return of Myck Kabongo. The team has slashed its turnover rate since his return, and the Horns’ two best offensive efficiency marks of the season have come in the last three games. Although Texas still doesn’t knock down its shots with consistency, there is more fluidity to the offense on most possessions.
Markel Brown and OSU are still in the Big 12 title hunt
Le’Bryan Nash is coming off a career night |
The Big 12 conference race has reached the turn, and it is just as competitive as pundits predicted during the offseason. Only one game separates the league’s top four teams, with Oklahoma and Baylor sitting just a game behind that pack. While the league was supposed to be a battle from spots one through eight, the Longhorns have failed to live up to those expectations. Texas is mired in a tie for eighth place with Texas Tech, a full two games behind West Virginia. The Longhorns have lost three league games in regulation by six points or less and another two in overtime, leaving the team wondering “What if?” as the season starts down the home stretch. This afternoon, the Longhorns welcome an Oklahoma State team to the Erwin Center that finally has broken through on the road. The Cowboys had won just once in 22 Big 12 road games before pulling off the upset at Allen Fieldhouse last weekend, and now find themselves in the midst of a championship hunt. Although Texas has knocked off Oklahoma State eight straight years in Austin, that streak is in danger this afternoon. Stat guru Ken Pomeroy gives the Longhorns a 31% chance to win the game, predicting a five-point margin of victory for the Pokes. However, if Texas can manage to pull off the upset at home, it could provide some momentum for the final four weeks of the season, as Myck Kabongo makes his long-awaited return on Wednesday night against Iowa State. That tussle with the Cyclones is the first of four home games Texas will play against the league’s top half down the stretch. By the numbers This year’s edition of the Cowboys is the most successful for Travis Ford during his five years in Stillwater, with the team posting great numbers on both sides of the ball. Oklahoma State has a stifling adjusted defensive efficiency that is ranked 10th in the nation, as the team allows opponents to score just 0.864 points per possession. Their offensive numbers are nearly as strong, with the Pokes scoring 1.076 adjusted points per possession, good enough for 55th out of 347 Division I teams. Their defensive dominance is particularly impressive because they are sound in every area of Dean Oliver’s Four Factors. Oklahoma State’s defensive turnover rate of 22.6% is ranked 58th in the country, while the team also limits opponents to just 29.5% of their offensive rebounding chances. The Pokes also avoid sending their opponents to the line, with a free-throw rate of 31.9%, ranked 89th in the nation. Add in their defensive effective field goal percentage of 44.9%, ranked 43rd nationally, and it’s clear to see why opponents are having such a difficult time finding the net against OSU. Oklahoma State’s forwards do a great job blocking shots inside, a big reason why the team’s defensive field goal percentage inside the arc is 16th-best in the nation. That’s also a big reason why Cowboy opponents are frequently forced to take shots from the perimeter. OSU opponents take more than 35% of their shots from beyond the arc, a distribution that is one of the 100 highest in D-I hoops. That’s also the only place that Oklahoma State opponents are finding much success, as 34% of those attempts have gone down on the year. Meet the Cowboys Freshman point guard Marcus Smart (No. 33) is the face of the program this year for Oklahoma State, and for good reason. Although he’s not a great shooter — only 27.7% from three and 40.2% overall — Smart is a natural leader who puts his teammates in a position to score and manages to make big shots when the pressure is on. As a part of Team USA’s U18 squad, Smart impressed coaches Mark Few and Billy Donovan, who called him the best leader they have worked with. While Smart averages nearly 4.7 assists per game, he also makes a big difference on the defensive end, where his quick hands pester opposing guards and lead to easy transition points for Oklahoma State. He averages 2.9 steals per game, giving him the nation’s ninth-best steal rate at 5.3%. The team’s leading scorer is Markel Brown (No. 22), a quick, exciting guard with incredible hops. Brown can put the ball on the floor to create his own shot or get to the rim, and has range to knock down jumpers all over the court. He can explode off the ground in an instant, which makes him good for a highlight-reel dunk or two per game, and that also makes him a very good shot blocker despite being just 6’3″. Sophomore Le’Bryan Nash (No. 2) was the big freshman name on last year’s squad, but he struggled with the weight of carrying an entire team. This year, he’s not the best and only option for Oklahoma State, and he’s flourishing with a better supporting cast. Although Nash has a good jump shot, he has been too persistent in taking shots from behind the arc, where he’s made only 23.1% of his attempts this season. When he stays near the block to post up or tries to face up other forwards from about 12 to 15 feet, Nash is much more effective. Senior Philip Jurick (No. 44) is the man in the middle, who is called upon mostly to rebound and score the occasional putback. He’s playing about 20 minutes per game, but still leads the team with more than seven rebounds per game. Jurick ranks in the top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages, and his 6.6% block percentage also ranks 120th for D-I players. Joining Jurick in the frontcourt is 6’8″ sophomore Michael Cobbins (No. 20), who is actually slightly better at blocking shots. Although Jurick and Cobbins both have swatted 23 shots this year, the sophomore has a block rate of 6.8%. Long and lean, he also has springy hops that make him an excellent defensive rebounder. Cobbins can also knock down hook shots around the paint, and favors the power dribble even though he doesn’t have the big body of a prototypical forward. Freshman guard Phil Forte (No. 13) has been a lifelong friend and teammate of Smart, and now he’s a key bench contributor for OSU. For Texas fans who remember the historic performance by Keiton Page in last year’s game at Stillwater, Forte could provide some flashbacks. The freshman has an incredibly quick release on the catch and shoot, and has knocked down 36.6% of his threes on the season. Forward Kamari Murphy (No. 21) is a 6’8″ freshman from Brooklyn who is playing solid minutes off the bench. Built in the same mold as Cobbins, he’s a high-motor guy who works hard on the glass and also has great natural instincts and timing for blocking shots. Junior Kirby Gardner (No. 1) is a juco transfer from San Bernardino Valley who plays around 11 minutes per game in relief of Smart. He has a great feel for pace, and uses that to his advantage when running the pick and roll with Jurick or the other bigs. The final member of the rotation is guard Brian Williams (No. 4), who is working his way back from a broken left wrist. After missing the first 18 games of the year due to that injury, Williams appeared against Iowa State and Baylor, logging a total of 14 minutes and six points. Although he is still getting reacquainted with game speed, having Williams back in the mix will be a big boost as the Big 12 race heads down the stretch. Keys to the game 1) Knock down early threes – Oklahoma State’s defense can be very difficult to crack, as the length on the perimeter makes penetrating difficult, and the solid shot blockers inside add another layer of resistance. The one area where opponents have found success against the Cowboys is on the perimeter, so that means that the Longhorns will need big games from Ioannis Papapetrou (No. 33) and Julien Lewis (No. 14), the only real three-point threats for Texas this afternoon. In Big 12 play, Papapetrou has made 46.2% of his shots behind the arc, while Lewis has struggled to an ugly 24.4% mark. Lewis has made more than 34% of his attempts on the season, so there is reason to be optimistic that he can break out of his slump sometime soon. If Texas can knock down some threes early, adjustments from the Oklahoma State defense will hopefully open up things a little bit inside the arc. 2) Avoid perimeter turnovers – That aforementioned length gives opposing guards a lot of trouble on the perimeter, while Smart’s quick hands are worth a few easy buckets for Oklahoma State in every game. Texas is still struggling to hang on to the basketball, so this is a very scary match-up for the Horns. If Texas can avoid wasting possessions and giving up fast breaks with dumb perimeter turnovers, they might stay within striking distance of an upset. If not, the Cowboys will likely enjoy their first two-game road winning streak since 2009. 3) Turn back dribble penetration – Oklahoma State is not a team that dumps it in to the standard big man and watches as he does his work. Although Nash has the ability to post up on the blocks, the Cowboys usually employ pick and rolls and dribble penetration to get defenses moving and earn easy looks in the paint. If the Longhorns can keep Smart and Brown from slicing up the defense on the bounce, the Cowboys will have to rely more on perimeter shooting from the likes of Forte. If Texas cannot slow down the OSU guards, the Cowboys could find points very easy to come by. |
Oklahoma State senior Keiton Page saved his best performance for last. In his first seven games against the Texas Longhorns, the Oklahoma native was held to just 36 total points on 8-of-40 shooting. The Cowboys were a dismal 1-6 against Texas in those games, losing by an average of 14.5 points. Page made up for all of that on Saturday afternoon, exploding for a career-high 40 points to power Oklahoma State to a 90-78 win over Texas at Gallagher-Iba Arena.
Keiton Page finally got the best of a Rick Barnes defense
Keiton Page consistently earned his way to the line |
