Margin for error is a thing of the past for the Texas Longhorns. Rick Barnes’ young team lost any wiggle room they might have had in their quest for the NCAA tournament, falling to Oklahoma State and Baylor in back-to-back games. The two defeats put Texas right back on the bubble with only three games left in the regular season.

Few people hold the illusion that the Longhorns will march into Allen Fieldhouse and earn a win against Kansas in the season finale. That means that Texas has to win their next two games and one in the Big 12 tournament to even get to the 20-win plateau. Thanks to an incredibly soft bubble this season, Texas could even still squeak into this year’s NCAA tournament with less than 20 wins.

Regardless of how many victories the team finishes the year with, what the Horns simply cannot afford to have is the stench of a loss to Texas Tech emanating from their résumé If Texas goes down in Lubbock this afternoon, it’s time to start making plans for the NIT.

Meet the Red Raiders

To learn more about the Texas Tech players and the team’s style of basketball, check out LRT’s game preview from the first game between these two teams.

The first game

The Longhorns set the tone early, swatting Texas Tech’s shots with regularity. Unable to score, the Red Raiders were further discouraged by a Texas offense that penetrated at will and scored in bunches. Senior Clint Chapman was the biggest benefactor, scoring 20 points on a ton of easy looks and a perfect 8-of-8 mark at the line.

The game was never in doubt, and Texas built a lead as large as 25 points in the second half. Despite the deep hole, Texas Tech continued to fight, reeling off an eight-point run before trading buckets down the stretch. Texas cruised to a 74-57 victory, as three different Horns scored at least 17 points.

In the post-game presser, Coach Barnes showed concern over that late defensive lapse, saying his team started to “play with no purpose.” If the Longhorns manage to build a big lead at United Spirit Arena this afternoon, you can be sure that the coaches will remind them to stay focused.

Since then…

Texas Tech managed to avoid the historical shame of an 0-for-conference season, whipping Oklahoma at home two weeks ago. The Red Raiders locked down Sooner superstar Steven Pledger, holding him to just four points. A box-and-one defense was especially effective for Tech down the stretch, as Bean Willis stuck with Pledger and frustrated him in crunch time.

The Red Raiders were unable to build on that victory, however, scoring just 38 points in a home loss to A&M three days later. Even more shocking than that final output was the fact that Tech managed just 12 of those points in the final 21:30 of the game. The Red Raiders posted an offensive efficiency mark of only 0.716 points per possession, coughing it up on more than 26% of their trips down the floor.

Tech followed that game with a predictable drubbing in Allen Fieldhouse at the hands of the Jayhawks, but then performed admirably in a road game against Iowa State. Although the Cyclones ultimately won by a 72-54 count, the Red Raiders trailed by just three points at the under-eight media timeout. Unfortunately, Tech managed just two points the rest of the way as Iowa State pulled away for the victory.

Keys to the game

1) Force turnovers – The Red Raiders have one of the few rosters in the country with less experience than Texas, and that youth has shown in the form of constant miscues. Tech is one of the five worst teams in the nation when it comes to turnover percentage, losing the ball on 25.9% of their possessions. If the Longhorns defense can ensure that Tech continues that trend this afternoon, it will not only cripple the Red Raider offense, but also fuel the transition game for Texas.

2) Make the freebies – While Tech is one of the worst five teams in terms of turnovers, they are nearly as bad when it comes to sending opponents to the line. The team’s defensive free-throw rate of 49.6% is one of the 10 worst in D-I hoops, and it means that Texas Tech opponents shoot one free throw for every two field goal attempts.

The Longhorns are knocking down 73% of their free throws so far this year, but have had random games where that number has been closer to 60%. Leaving points at the line will only serve to keep Tech in the game, something that is incredibly dangerous on the road.

3) Make Big Lew uncomfortable – Robert Lewandowski has proven to be a very streaky player in his four years at Texas Tech, and when he’s on a hot streak he can be incredibly effective. On the other side of the coin, he’s also proven that a rough start can essentially knock him out of the game before it really even gets going.

If the Texas defense can replicate their work from the first game, Big Lew will have a hard time getting started. Forcing him to take tough shots early and attacking him on defense should knock Lewandowski out of his comfort zone. Without a big game from their biggest player, Tech will have a hard time pulling off the upset.

The Longhorns return to action tonight at the Erwin Center, having finally completed a brutal six-game stretch that was among the toughest in the country. Unfortunately, Texas had ample opportunity to steal a win or two against top-tier competition, but came up short almost every time. Only a home victory over Iowa State kept the Longhorns from an ugly six-game losing streak, and provided them with one more W against the RPI Top 50.

Now, the schedule get easier for Texas. The team’s nine remaining games come against squads with a combined record of 32-49 in Big 12 play. While the Longhorns won’t be able to just walk into Lloyd Noble Center, Reed Arena, or Gallagher-Iba Arena and expect to be handed wins, they are certainly capable of logging those road victories. Add in a pair of chances for revenge at home against Kansas State and Baylor — two teams who beat the Horns by just nine combined points — and it’s easy to see that all is not lost quite yet for Texas.

If you think of these final nine games as a new season for the Horns, Texas Tech provides the perfect opening opponent. The Red Raiders are winless in league play, and have a 45.4% chance to finish the year with an 0-18 mark, according to Ken Pomeroy. For a Texas team that may have had its confidence shaken by a handful of last-second losses over the last three weeks, Texas Tech provides an excellent chance to get their mojo back.

By the numbers

The Red Raiders are the league’s most inexperienced team, with eight freshmen and three sophomores on the roster. Just three players return from last year’s team, which finished 5-11 in Big 12 play and lost in the first round of the league’s tournament.

The Red Raiders aren’t a terrible shooting team, but they are incredibly inconsistent. The only thing they have been able to do consistently this season is turn it over, something they do on almost 26% of their possessions. Of the 345 teams in Division I, there are only five that waste possessions more frequently than Texas Tech.

When the Red Raiders do hang on to the basketball, they oftentimes have only one opportunity to score. Texas Tech reclaims just 26.8% of its missed shots, a mark that ranks the team 314th in D-I hoops. Unless the Red Raiders come out on absolute fire from the field, the stats don’t give them much of a chance for an upset this evening.

Another statistic that could make the upset difficult for the Red Raiders is their tendency to shoot from inside the arc. Although they make a respectable 36.6% of their three-point attempts, they take only 26.6% of their shots from long range. For a Texas team that has been torched by the threes of Iowa State and Mizzou, that is a great sign.

The Longhorns will also benefit from Tech’s bad habit of sending opponents to the line. Although Texas has left some valuable points at the charity stripe over its last three games, the team still has a success rate of nearly 72% from the line. Combine that with the fact that the Red Raiders give opponents one free throw for every two shots, and you have a recipe for tons of easy Longhorn points this evening.

Meet the Red Raiders

With a young, inexperienced team and a first-year coach in Billy Gillispie, minutes are up for grabs on the High Plains. Coach Gillispie has used 12 different starting lineups this season, and 10 Red Raiders average at least 11 minutes per game in conference play. He is still searching for a winning formula, and it’s clear that no player is above spending some time on the bench in order to learn a valuable message.

The team’s lone senior is big man Robert Lewandowski (No. 15), whose own inconsistent play mirrors the team as a whole. The 6’10” Kansas native has a good stable of post moves and can easily knock down mid-range jumpers. Unfortunately, he rarely puts it together for more than a game at a time, and often takes himself out of games with early foul trouble. The big man has also had some issues making quality entry passes when he’s in the high post, which is problematic on a team that loves to run the high-low game like Tech does.

With Lewandowski oftentimes ineffective, sophomore forward Jaye Crockett (No. 30) is having to pick up the slack. He loves to use the spin move for turnaround jumpers against bigger defenders, but also knows when to isolate on the block against smaller opponents. Crockett also can knock down the long baseline shot or elbow J, which some teams have dared him to take. In conference play, he’s leading the team with seven boards and more than 11 points per game.

The only other player consistently getting rebounds for the Red Raiders is freshman Jordan Tolbert (No. 32). Although he’s only 19 years old, Tolbert already has the chiseled body of a senior forward, and he’s used it to make an immediate impact at the college level. Tolbert is strong enough to score and rebound against the big men in a tough Big 12, and as a result he’s snagging almost six boards per game against league opponents.

Beyond those three, the Red Raiders have no real depth in the frontcourt. Freshman Terran Petteway (No. 2) fits best as a small forward, and although he’s strong enough to bang inside, he’s struggled against Big 12 frontcourts. He let his frustrations get out of hand in a blowout loss to Kansas, when he punched Connor Teahan in the head to earn an ejection and one-game suspension. Petteway has a pretty good jump shot and adequate handles, so when he puts it all together he should be a reliable slashing threat who can finish through contact.

Jaron Nash (No. 44) is another option at small forward, but he sees very little playing time. A transfer from Tyler Junior College, he’s long and athletic, but has yet to find his niche with this squad.

In the backcourt, Canadian product and Midland College transfer Ty Nurse (No. 4) is the team’s most dangerous long-range threat. He’s knocked down more than 38% of his three-point attempts, including an impressive 6-of-9 performance in the season opener against Troy. Nurse is also practically automatic at the line, having made 92.5% of his freebies this year.

Guard Javarez “Bean” Willis (No. 5) is quick and shifty with the ball, and is one of the team’s only quality penetrating threats. When Willis is aggressive with the ball, he’s able to find good looks for himself and his teammates, but it seems like he fails to flip that switch most of the time.

Freshman Kevin Wagner (No. 10) is another quick, talented guard who has worked his way into the starting lineup for the last three games. A hometown kid, the former Lubbock Estacado star is generously listed at 5’8″, and would likely lead the team in assists if he were playing more. His assist rate of 21.9% is best on the team, so despite averaging just about 15 minutes per game, he’s still near the top of the team leaderboard in that category.

Another freshman making an impact is DeShon “Biggie” Minnis (No. 3), who is one of the best rebounders in the backcourt for Tech. At 6’3″, the Philadelphia native is snagging nearly three boards in each Big 12 game and has parlayed that tenacity into four starts against conference opponents.

The Red Raiders are also getting about 11 minutes each from freshmen Luke Adams (No. 13) and Clark Lammert (No. 35). Adams is one of only two deaf players at the Division I level, and he wears cochlear implants along with a headband to help hold them steady. Although he’s listed at just 5’9″, Adams is a solid back-up at the point and has a quality jumper, even if he sometimes is a bit too eager to take the shot. Lammert is the older brother of future Longhorn Connor Lammert, and his height combined with a good long-range shot helps stretch the defense.

Keys to the game

1) Neutralize Lewandowski – There are a multitude of ways that the Longhorns can take the Tech big man out of the game, but the key is to get him uncomfortable early. Whether they achieve that by attacking him and drawing fouls or by forcing him off the block on offense, it doesn’t really matter. Texas just needs to make sure that Big Lew doesn’t get clicking early, because without him, the Red Raider offense usually grinds to a halt.

2) Keep Nurse off the perimeter – One of the easiest ways to get knocked off by an inferior opponent is to give up a ton of three-point shots. Ty Nurse is Tech’s best option from long range, and he’s coming in with the hot hand. In the team’s last two games, Nurse was 5-of-11 from beyond the arc, so the Longhorns have to make sure he doesn’t continue his success tonight.

3) Be aggressive – Tech’s defense constantly rewards opponents with trips to the charity stripe, so the Longhorns need to take full advantage by getting a piece of the paint. J’Covan Brown, Myck Kabongo, Julien Lewis, and Sheldon McClellan need to put the ball on the floor and drive to the bucket consistently. Not only will it lead to a ton of free points, but it can put the thin and already-undersized Tech frontcourt in foul trouble.

When the calendar turned to 2010, the once-invincible Texas Longhorns unraveled in a fashion rarely seen in sports. After starting 17-0, last year’s team sputtered down the homestretch, winning just 7 of their last 17 games. This year’s batch of Longhorns have clearly learned from their past mistakes. Instead of wilting down the stretch, they are visibly improving as the season goes along. While Texas was a dominant defensive team during a very tough non-conference run, they have turned it up another notch in conference play.

Last night was more of the same, as the Longhorn defense forced 17 turnovers and held Texas Tech to 38.2% shooting from the field en route to a 76-60 win over the Red Raiders in Austin. The victory moved Texas to 8-0 in Big 12 play, one game ahead of Kansas, and 3.5 games ahead of third-place Baylor.

It looked like yet another blowout in the early going, as Texas held the Red Raiders to just 11 points in their first 20 possessions. At the same time, the Horns were finding open shots everywhere they looked. They built a lead as large as 21 points in the waning minutes of the first half, powered by 6-of-11 shooting from behind the arc.

The second half was a different story, and it resulted in a much closer game than anyone could have expected. The Longhorns took six minutes and 46 seconds to make their first field goal in the second half, letting the Red Raiders slice the lead to just six points with 11:20 to go. But J’Covan Brown sandwiched a pair of threes around a mid-range jumper from Gary Johnson, and the Horns cruised to victory.

What looked good

In the first half, everything looked good for Texas. Jordan Hamilton knocked down his first four attempts from three-point range, while the Longhorn defense held Tech to just 0.55 points per possession over the first 12 minutes. Tristan Thompson was getting great position on the blocks and taking perfect angles to score once his teammates fed him the ball.

One of the main men dishing out assists was J’Covan Brown, who had another solid game off the bench. His two three-pointers stopped the bleeding in the second half, and he finished with 10 points and three assists in 26 minutes on the court.

The two-headed monster of Alexis Wangmene and Matt Hill also chipped in from the bench, taking advantage of their smaller Tech opponents. Wangmene earned three points at the line, while Hill had a pair of putbacks and an easy layup off an assist from Jai Lucas. Hill also grabbed six rebounds against an undersized Tech squad.

What needed work

While Hill grabbed six rebounds, the Longhorns did a poor job rebounding against a Tech team that is routinely abused on the glass. In Lubbock, Texas won the rebounding battle by 19. In Austin, they only outrebounded Tech by three. The Longhorns allowed the Red Raiders to grab 37.3% of their missed shots, after allowing them to win just 19.2% of the offensive rebounds in Lubbock. The 37.3% mark was the sixth-highest OR% for the Red Raiders in their 24 games this season.

A big cause of the rebounding woes was Gary Johnson’s absence on the glass. While GJ scored 16 points, largely on the strength of his smooth long-range jumper, he was a ghost on the boards. The team obviously benefits from his 17-footer, as he typically sinks that shot, while pulling bigger defenders out of the lane. But the failure to grab even a single board on the defensive end could prove to be critical against a better ballclub than Tech.

On defense, the Horns gave up far too many easy looks during the last three-quarters of the game. It may seem ridiculous to harp on the defense when they allowed just 0.873 points per possession. But a big reason why Texas was able to post good point-per-possession numbers is because they forced a lot of Tech turnovers.

The Red Raiders coughed it up on 24.7% of their possessions, meaning that they were making a very high percentage of their shots when they managed to hang on to the basketball. The reason? Easy layups and jumpers coming off of curls when the Longhorn defenders completely lost their men. That smacks of lazy defense with too much ball-watching and not enough rotation.

Perhaps the Horns played down to their competition, knowing they could give partial effort on defense and still win. A fair argument, but still a troubling one. If they have a similar lack of effort in Colorado, against a team that hardly ever turns the ball over, Texas will leave Boulder with a loss.

Finally, it must be noted that the sloppy effort wasn’t limited just to the defense over the last thirty minutes. The Longhorns also had just as much trouble hanging on to the basketball, piling up more turnovers (16) than assists (15), many of them on boneheaded errors. Cory Joseph had a pair of double-dribble calls, while the Longhorns fumbled numerous passes just feet from the basket.

Thankfully, this weak effort came against one of the worst teams in the conference. It’s a true luxury to play one of your worst games of the year and still come away with a 16-point win. The trajectory this team has taken so far this year leads us to believe that this effort will only lead to improvement in the near future. Expect the Longhorns to once again be firing on all cylinders by tip-off on Wednesday night.

Next up: at Oklahoma (12-10 overall, 4-4 Big 12); Wednesday, 8 P.M. CT

After surviving a brutal five-game stretch that included three road games and four games against teams ranked in the Top 25, the Texas Longhorns return to the Frank Erwin Center with a perfect 7-0 league mark. Fortunately, the team gets a breather tonight, hosting a Texas Tech team that they destroyed by 31 points in Lubbock in their conference opener.

This game should be incredibly lopsided. So lopsided, in fact, that Vegas is giving the Red Raiders an extra 20.5 points. Stat guru Ken Pomeroy and his supercomputer have the Horns as 99% to win the game, with a predicted 26-point margin of victory. Perhaps the biggest question heading into this game will be just how many minutes Andrew Dick, Dean Melchionni, and Trent Morgan see in the blowout.

The first meeting

When these two teams first met in Lubbock, the Longhorns abused Texas Tech inside. Texas posted a +19 rebounding margin and scored 50 points in the paint. The Red Raiders were limited to grabbing just 19.2% of their misses, and the string of one-and-done possessions doomed them to failure.

The dominating performance wasn’t limited just to the Texas frontcourt. Dogus Balbay scored nine points and secured five rebounds, while J’Covan Brown and Jai Lucas combined for 11 points off the bench.

The Red Raiders, meanwhile, had a hard time finding anyone to score. Big man Robert Lewandowski knocked down quite a few tough shots against the tight Longhorn defense, but his 13 points were the most on the team. Guard Javarez Willis also managed to provide a spark off the bench, scoring 10 points on 56% shooting from the field.

Since then…

That loss was the second of four that Tech suffered to open conference play. During that stretch, the Red Raiders lost by an average of 21.5 points per game.

But Tech rebounded nicely, compiling three wins to get back into the muddled mess in the middle of the conference standings. The Red Raiders edged out Nebraska at home before stealing a road win against Iowa State in Ames. They followed that up with an overtime win against OSU in Lubbock, but the momentum was stopped when they were thrashed by Kansas at home earlier this week.

The key to Tech’s resurgance was better performance on the offensive glass. After getting destroyed by the Longhorn rebounders, they had a pathetic 12.9% offensive rebounding percentage in a 34-point drubbing at K-State. In each of the three wins that followed, Tech had an OR% of at least 37.5%.

Mike Singletary and John Roberson were also instrumental in the brief winning streak for Texas Tech. After the pair combined for just 7 points in the loss to Texas, they combined to average 40.3 points per game in the team’s three wins.

Meet the Red Raiders

The Red Raiders are an experienced bunch, and as a result, four of their five leading scorers are seniors. To get a detailed breakdown on all of the retuning Tech players, check out our first preview from last season.

Coach Pat Knight is also getting contributions from three newcomers, who you can read about in our preview of the first game in Lubbock.

Keys to the game

As it was in Lubbock, this game should be one-sided from the start. That means that while this section is titled “Keys to the game,” it could easily be re-named “Ways to win by more points.”

The most important thing that the Longhorns did in Lubbock was dominate the inside game. Texas has a much bigger and more skilled frontcourt, and it led to 50 points in the paint in Lubbock. The Longhorns should have no problem doing more of the same tonight.

Texas will also enjoy a blowout victory if they win the rebounding battle. Tech is not going to grab a lot of offensive rebounds, but if Texas holds them to as few as they did in Lubbock, this thing could get ugly in a hurry. Tech is not a great shooting team — they find their greatest success against defenses that allow them a ton of backdoor cuts — so they will likely miss a ton of shots against a good Texas D tonight. If they aren’t getting many second chances, we could have a poleaxing on our hands at the Erwin Center.

Finally, Texas needs to stay in front of the basketball. The Red Raiders don’t break you down off the dribble, but they will beat you with quick cuts and crisp passing if you can’t see both the ball and your man. Fortunately, the Longhorns have had the most efficient D in college basketball this season, and held Tech to a pitiful 0.738 points per possession in Lubbock. It would be a major surprise to see the Red Raiders pick apart this Texas defense.

There was little doubt what cost the Longhorns a win over Connecticut on Saturday. Texas was constantly abused on the defensive glass, and in the end suffered a one-point defeat in overtime. On Tuesday night in Lubbock, there was also little doubt as to what Texas had focused on in practice since that loss. The Longhorns threw their weight around inside, racking up 42 rebounds and 50 points in the paint en route to an easy 83-52 win.

What looked good

Texas bounced back on the glass against Texas Tech, posting an impressive +19 rebounding margin. The Longhorns were especially strong on the defensive glass, grabbing 80.8% of the Red Raider misses. The commanding performance gave the team its best defensive rebounding mark since the season opener, when the Horns secured 84.3% of the misses by Navy.

Not only did the Longhorns limit the Red Raiders to one-shot possessions nearly every trip down the floor, but they also forced tough their opponents into tough looks. Tech shot just 39% from the field, the tenth time this season that Texas held an opponent to less than 40% shooting. The stingy defense and lack of offensive rebounds resulted in a paltry 0.738 points per possession for the Red Raiders, marking the eighth time this season the Longhorn D has held an opponent to less than 0.8 points per possesion.

Against Tech’s constant screens and off-ball motion, the Longhorns talked it out on defense. The good communication was obvious, especially considering that the majority of the student section in the half-empty United Spirit Arena left with 11 minutes to play. Fans were actually able to hear the Longhorn defenders calling out switches for the rest of the game.

The solid team defense forced Tech to take contested jumpers on most of their possessions. Even big man Robert Lewandowski was forced to take some tough looks thanks to solid post defense from Tristan Thompson, but unlike the rest of the Red Raiders, Lewandowski was able to knock down difficult shots. He finished the night with 13 points, many of them on great turnaround jumpers with a hand in his face.

Thompson should also be commended for his excellent work sealing off defenders when the guards were driving the lane. His heads-up play allowed Dogus Balbay and the diminutive Jai Lucas to repeatedly reach the rim for uncontested layups. The pair of guards, who were previously averaging around eight points per game, combined for 14 against Tech. Balbay in particular had a career night, grabbing five rebounds and dishing out three dimes to go with his nine points, despite having to play only 21 minutes in the blowout.

In the frontcourt, Gary Johnson bounced back quickly after struggling with his mid-range jumper against Connecticut. Although he finished just one point shy of a double-double — the first time in the last eight games he didn’t hit double-digits in scoring — Johnson shot a scorching 57% from the field.

Off the bench, Alexis Wangmene did great work on the glass. He grabbed five boards in just 16 minutes, a solid performance after he spent most of the UConn game on the bench. J’Covan Brown also played well in relief, logging more assists (three) than buckets (two). It’s clear that Brown is embracing his role as a combo guard, and has shed most of the bad habits that led him to be a shoot-first player in his freshman year.

What needed work

In a game that was this one-sided, most Texas fans know that there is only one thing we can harp on. Once again, the Longhorns struggled mightily from the free-throw stripe, knocking down just 62.9% of their attempts. As usual, the biggest culprit was the freshman Thompson, who made just six of 11. Senior guard Dogus Balbay also earned five free-throw attempts with his aggressive moves to the bucket. Unfortunately for Dogus and the Longhorns, he made just one.

Next up: vs. Oklahoma (8-8 overall, 0-2 Big 12); Saturday, 3 P.M.