Fresh off a heartbreaking overtime loss to Connecticut on Saturday, Texas jumps right into conference play with a road game against Texas Tech tonight. Although United Spirit Arena seems to claim one ranked opponent as an upset victim every season, the Longhorns have to be happy with the relatively easy start the conference schedule-makers afforded them. The Red Raiders sit at just .500 heading into this game, while Texas’ second opponent, Oklahoma, was picked to finish near the bottom of the league by every major publication.

On paper, the Red Raiders should have a much better record at this point. They returned a solid nucleus of players in John Roberson, Mike Singletary, and D’walyn Roberts, but have stumbled through the season thus far, losing games to the likes of North Texas and TCU. Roberts, who was troubled by ankle problems at the end of last season, missed six more games in November, and has seen limited minutes since his return.

By the numbers

As usual, Texas Tech is a well-disciplined team that relies on constant motion and cutting to earn open looks. The Red Raiders take nearly 75% of their shots from inside the arc, a stat that is even more notable when put in a national context. Out of 345 Division I basketball teams, there are only 24 teams that take less threes than Tech.

That bodes well for the Longhorns, who just so happen to have the 2nd-best two-point defense in the country. Texas is holding opponents to just 38.5% shooting from inside the three-point line. To date, the Red Raiders are making more than 48% of their two-point shots. If the Texas defense can impose its will inside tonight, it could be a very long game for the Tech offense.

The Red Raiders are also very consistent with the basketball. They only turn it over on about 18% of their possessions, significantly better than the national average of nearly 21 percent. Against a Longhorn team that doesn’t force many turnovers, that trend should hold in tonight’s game.

One trend Texas hopes to end in tonight’s game is an inability to secure defensive rebounds. Against Connecticut, the Longhorns allowed the Huskies to reclaim more than 43% of their misses, and those extra possesions resulted in a tough loss. Fortunately for Texas, the Red Raiders are nowhere near as talented on the glass. Tech is ranked in the bottom half of D-I basketball with just a 32.1% offensive rebounding mark.

Meet the Red Raiders

The top four scorers for Tech are all seniors, while the team’s fifth-leading scorer, Robert Lewandowski, is a junior. Since Coach Pat Knight has his team running an up-tempo attack this season, with the Red Raiders seeing 71.5 possessions per contest, the team essentially runs 10 deep.

The core group for Tech is made up of six players who were major contributors last season — Singletary, Roberson, Lewandowski, Brad Reese, David Tairu, and Roberts. For more on those returning players, you’ll want to check out last season’s game preview.

The newcomers are led by Jaye Crockett, a freshman forward from New Mexico. He redshirted last season, giving him an extra year to bulk up for the rigors of Big 12 play. As a result, he’s made a quick impact in his first season, chipping in nearly six points and four rebounds a game despite averaging just 14 minutes.

Reserve point guard Javarez Willis is just 5’11”, and he’s taken a winding road to get to Lubbock. Coming out of Louisiana, Willis was rated as a four-star recruit by Rivals.com, but failed to land offers from any major schools besides Tech. After signing with Coach Knight, Willis wasn’t able to academically qualify, and had to spend the last season at a prep school.

Now, finally a member of the Red Raider squad, Willis is providing about 15 minutes off the bench. He still needs a lot of work on ball control to be a viable point guard option, but has the luxury of learning the role as an understudy to a very experienced cast.

Paul Cooper is a juco transfer from Gulf Coast CC, the same school that produced fellow Tech forward Brad Reese. Cooper is only playing a little more than 10 minutes per game, but like Willis, he is building for next season. He’s clearly making the effort to improve, as he shed nearly 50 pounds after transferring from Gulf Coast. With more experience, he could make a splash in 2011-12.

Keys to the game

On paper, this is a game that Texas should easily win. The Red Raiders rely on mid-range jumpers and slashing to the rim, two methods of attack that the Longhorns have done a great job rebuffing all season long. There’s also no question that the Texas roster has more talent than the Tech one. But as we mentioned, United Spirit Arena has seen its share of upsets over the last few seasons. Add in the fact that the Red Raiders are experienced, while the Longhorns are fairly young, and perhaps the result isn’t so pre-determined.

When facing a disciplined, experienced team, everything boils down to fundamentals. Those types of teams aren’t going to beat themselves, so the Longhorns can’t do dumb things like waste possessions with turnovers. If Texas can just execute and avoid a letdown game after the emotionally-draining effort against UConn, they should return to Austin with a conference win.

The most important fundamental for Texas tonight will be good team defense. With Tech constantly moving off the ball, it takes just a split second to lose a man and give him a wide-open look. If the Longhorns can talk it out, switching and helping as needed, they should be able to frustrate the Red Raiders like they did in Austin last season. Fail to do so, and it will be more like last season’s second half in Lubbock, when the Red Raiders quickly erased a double-digit Texas lead and nearly came back for a victory.

The Longhorns also need to exploit their advantage inside. Outside of the 6’10” Lewandowski, the Red Raiders don’t consistently play anyone who is taller than 6’7″. Texas would be wise to pound the ball inside to Tristan Thompson and let Jordan Hamilton attack the paint off the dribble. Hamilton seemed hesitant to do so against the tall, stout interior D of Connecticut, so perhaps a breakout game against a less-imposing Tech frontcourt will increase his confidence heading into conference play.

Finally, we’ll be looking for a big game from Dogus Balbay. This isn’t really a key to the game, per se, as the Longhorns can easily win this game with a quiet performance from Balbay. But Dogus had the best offensive game of his career against Tech last January, so we’re hoping to see more slashing from the Turkish guard tonight.

Earlier in the week, SI put out their Midseason Crystal Ball, with Seth Davis tabbing Texas for the Final Four, while my fellow stat-nerd, Luke Winn, selected the Horns as a Final Four “dark horse.” Meanwhile, Andy Glockner, Twitter’s most-responsive sportswriter, points out that Pat Knight should be on the hot seat in Lubbock.

With the UConn game just two days away, ESPN’s Andy Katz has a nice feature on Jordan Hamilton and the Horns. It’s an excellent read, so take a few minutes to click on over and read about the team’s revival.

Winn gets another mention for a pair of articles he put out this week. First, his look at Ohio State’s foul-aversion included eye-popping numbers and insightful quotes from top Buckeyes. If you’re into tempo-free numbers, you absolutely have to check out this piece. The stats will floor you.

Today, Winn’s weekly Power Rankings returned from a holiday hiatus, with the Longhorns ascending two spots to the No. 7 ranking. ESPN’s weekly power poll also saw a two-spot move by the Horns, who are now 10th.

The consistently impressive play of Jordan Hamilton is gaining some attention from the national media, as TSN’s Mike DeCourcy put the sophomore on his mid-season All-American team. Hamilton’s numbers also allowed him to just crack the top ten of stat guru Ken Pomeroy’s Player of the Year rankings.

Not much time to do a proper game preview for this one, but fortunately you can find most everything you’ll need to know about the Red Raiders in the preview from the first meeting of these two teams. Texas won that game 95-83, fueled in large part by surprising offensive outbursts from Dogus Balbay and Justin Mason.

The big difference in this afternoon’s match-up is that Tech will once again have the services of Darko Cohaderavic and D’walyn Roberts, two frontcourt players who will completely change the complexion of the game. The Red Raiders were incredibly thin when these teams first played each other, and the high pace of the game made it easier for Texas to pull away late despite playing absolutely horrible defense. There’s very little chance that will be the case this afternoon.

Fans can probably also expect to see Tech work the ball inside a little more than they did in the first meeting. Coach Pat Knight likes to try to get Cohaderavic going early, not only to earn the easy points inside, but to open things up for his other slashing, athletic wings and guards. A lot of responsibility will fall on the shoulders of the Longhorn frontcourt to ensure that gameplan doesn’t come to fruition.

In addition, Texas also will likely not enjoy another breakout performance from Balbay or Mason. Neither has played at that level since that game, and both have had their minutes significantly cut. Fortunately, J’Covan Brown and Jordan Hamilton have stepped up and performed admirably in their expanded roles. Texas will need solid offensive games out of that pair of freshmen in order to produce this afternoon.

Finally, it must also be noted that United Spirit Arena is a surprisingly tough place for visiting teams to win at. It’s not that there are loud, intimidating crowds here in Lubbock. And it’s not that Tech usually fields good teams that catch even better teams off guard. But for whatever reason, ranked teams often leave United Spirit with a loss, and for a Texas squad that has piled up quite a few of those L’s in recent weeks, it’s something to be concerned about.

When we wrote about the problems plaguing the Texas offense on Tuesday night, we addressed the fact that Justin Mason and Dogus Balbay were offensive liabilities that were crippling Dexter Pittman‘s productivity. Opponents were well-aware that the duo was averaging a combined 7.2 points per game, which allowed two extra defenders to sag into the paint and stifle Texas’ inside game. Our proposed solution was to limit the amount of time both players were on the floor simultaneously, hopefully clearing up the spacing issues for the offense.

Of course, having Mason and Balbay combine for 31 points might also solve the problem.

That’s exactly what happened in Wednesday night’s 95-83 Texas win, as the pair of offensively-challenged guards made mincemeat of the Tech defense, leading the Horns to a win on a night where Pittman didn’t even score in the first half. It was clear from the start that the two guards had the green light on offense, as Mason attacked the rim for layups almost immediately, and Balbay shot the first open mid-range jumper he was given. That particular shot clanged off the iron, but the junior kept firing, and knocked down a pair of Js later in the contest.

With all five Texas players actually a threat to score, the offense immediately opened up. Avery Bradley found himself with open looks behind the arc and he took advantage, knocking down 3-of-6 from long range. Damion James was able to secure his Big 12-record 48th double-double with a monstrous 28-point, 13-rebound night. To say the Texas offense was clicking on all cylinders would be a gross understatement. According to number crunching by stat guru Ken Pomeroy, last night’s performance was actually the 4th-most efficient one for the offense all season, and the best since the Big 12 opener against Colorado.

Unfortunately, even with all of that scoring, the game wasn’t safely in hand until the final minutes. Texas had yet another poor defensive performance, giving up dribble penetration far too easily in the first half. In response, the Longhorns peeled back the defensive pressure inside the arc to cut off the driving lanes, which left the perimeter wide open. That let Tech — a team which was averaging just thirteen three-point attempts per game — fire up thirteen attempts in just the first half and actually make eight of them!

In the second half, things improved marginally, but there is the question of how much of that defensive improvement was thanks to fatigue slowing down the Tech ballhandlers. The Longhorns were much more successful staying in front of their man for the final twenty minutes and certainly made John Roberson work much harder in the second half to score his points. But with the Red Raiders only playing seven men when they typically run nine or ten deep, it’s quite possible that tired legs just made it harder for them to blow by the Texas defense.

While Tech had lost most of its depth, Texas was choosing to work with less. The Longhorns played with a core group of seven men, and even sat Dexter Pittman for more than half the game as Coach Barnes chose to go with a smaller lineup against the speedy, undersized Red Raiders. J’Covan Brown earned most of the reserve minutes in the backcourt, playing 20 minutes in relief. Down low, Gary Johnson made the most of his 21 minutes, scrapping for six points and five boards. After the UConn loss, there was much talk in the media about downsizing the Texas rotation, and for now that approach seems to be working.

With the losing streak at an end, the Longhorns can now think about getting the season back on track. Fortunately, the UConn loss has no bearing at all on the goal of a conference championship, so Texas still sits just one game back of Kansas in the league standings. The tiebreaker will belong to the winner of the February 8th showdown at the Frank Erwin Center, so as long as the Longhorns stay within one game of the Jayhawks, they still maintain the ability to wrest control of the league with a head-to-head win.

Texas has a tough week on the road between now and then, but also cannot afford to look past a very dangerous march-up with the Baylor Bears on Saturday. Scott Drew has his team playing defense for the first time in ages, and Michigan transfer Ekpe Udoh gives the Bears an inside presence they simply haven’t had with Josh Lomers in the paint.

Check back tomorrow evening for some statistical analysis of the Texas defense, and perhaps even a few more photo galleries from this season’s road trips.

After two straight road losses and a narrow overtime victory against Texas A&M, a pair of home games is the perfect remedy for the Texas Longhorns. Fortunately, that two-game homestand starts with tonight’s tilt against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, a team that is just 2-4 on the road this year and will be playing without two of their starters in the frontcourt.

Historically, Texas has dominated this series, particularly in the Erwin Center. The Longhorns have won thirteen-straight meetings at the Drum, and are 21-3 against the Red Raiders since Rick Barnes took over as head coach. While Tech’s poor road play and battered roster will likely lead to an easy Texas victory tonight, fans should know that Coach Pat Knight has certainly improved his team since last year.

The key players

Tech’s offense is still anchored by the talented John Roberson, a lightning-quick guard from Plano who also has excellent court vision. When he’s not scoring his 13.8 points per game, he’s often threading the needle to get his teammates open looks. Roberson has more than five assists per game, and in Tech’s smooth-flowing motion offense, his ability to get the ball to his teammates at the right moment is key.

The other big-time playmaker for the Red Raiders is Mike Singletary. After being a starter two years ago, he was an on-again, off-again member of the starting five last season. Then came his signature game, a 43-point outburst against A&M in the opening round of last year’s Big 12 Tournament. At one point in his amazing performance, Singletary scored 29 consecutive points for the Red Raiders.

This year, there’s no question that Mike is the go-to guy. He’s leading the team with more than 15 points a game, and his presence down low will be even more important tonight thanks to the suspension of center Darko Cohaderavic and the injury to forward D’walyn Roberts. Texas must use their frontcourt depth to attack Singletary, as there will be a huge drop-off in talent if he is forced to the bench with foul trouble.

Thanks to the absence of Cohaderavic and Roberts, a ton of pressure now falls on the shoulders of Robert Lewandowski, a sophomore forward who has seen his production tail off after a promising freshman campaign. He’s great with his back to the basket, which gives Coach Knight the opportunity to focus a little more on an inside game instead of the typical Tech offense of constant cutting, midrange jumpers, and layups. The biggest knock on Lewandowski last season was his inability to get rebounds despite his 6’10” frame, and this year those troubles have limited him to about ten minutes per contest. Tech will need him to step up tonight, which includes making some immediate improvements on the glass.

Nick Okorie is a senior guard who is nearly as quick as Roberson, and is just as big of a threat to score. He’s only started ten games this season, but is still fourth on the team in scoring with nine points per game. He’s a very good rebounder for being just 6’1″, which is important for a team that will be giving up a lot of size against the Longhorns.

The Red Raiders don’t shoot very many threes, but if they do happen to get hot from long range tonight, it will likely be thanks to JuCo transfer David Tairu. The 6’3″ guard has only taken 36 three-pointers on the year, but is by far the most accurate long-range shooter for Tech so far. Tairu is also an in-your-face defender who loves to get in his man’s jersey well beyond the perimeter.

Brad Reese is the only other Tech player who is available tonight that has logged significant minutes. He’s another junior-college transfer, coming to Lubbock from Gulf Coast CC in Florida. He’s a versatile 6’6″ player who will likely be asked to fill a multitude of roles tonight. If Tech chooses to go small, which the roster changes may necessitate, he is able to slide down to the power forward position and actually can play some solid defense. Reese also has the handles to bring the ball up the floor and attack off the dribble, so the Red Raiders will likely be looking for some added offense from him tonight.

Keys to the game

As has already been mentioned, this thin Tech bench is going to have a hard time keeping up with the depth and size of the Texas offense. But based on the last twenty minutes of Longhorn basketball we’ve seen, it’s entirely possible that the Bad Horns could show up and tank against a well-coached team. Here, then, are our keys to getting the home win and getting back on track…

Extend the defensive pressure – The Red Raiders love to score on midrange jumpers and easy layups. They are constantly cutting across the lane, setting screens away from the ball, and forcing the defense to make decisions when their skilled ballhandlers penetrate. What Tech doesn’t like to do is shoot three-pointers. Texas needs to extend their defensive pressure out past the perimeter and make the Red Raider offense work 20 feet from the basket. They must force the cutters to catch passes out by the free throw line, instead of midway down the blocks for easy jumpers. If the Longhorns can keep their men in front of them and far from the rim, it should be very tough for Tech to cobble together much of an offense.

Get Dexter involved early – We talked about the issues leading to Dexter’s disappearance in last night’s column. While we’re not holding our breath for Barnes to make any of these changes in the near future, there has to at least be a concerted effort made tonight to work the ball inside to the big man early. Texas is going to enjoy quite the size advantage against this depleted lineup, so Pitt has to pile up some points. In addition, Big Dex also has to hold up his end of the bargain by avoiding the early fouls that have hampered his playing time in recent weeks.

Force mistakes – Statistically, the Red Raiders don’t make that many mistakes with the basketball. Their 19.2% turnover rate is 96th-best in the country, but they’ve shown a tendency to make many more mistakes on the road. In Tech’s last five road games — four of which were losses — their turnover rate was never lower than 20.9%, and it even spiked as high as 29.3% in a blowout loss to Oklahoma State. The Red Raiders coughed it up 21 times in that one, leading to 29 Cowboy points off the miscues. If Texas can take advantage of this trend and steal some possessions from a less-talented Red Raider squad, it should squash any hopes of an upset.