The Big 12’s two hottest teams meet at the Frank Erwin Center this afternoon, as the Jayhawks and Longhorns put their seven-game and five-game winning streaks on the line. Texas is returning to action after a week off, and is looking to notch its fourth consecutive win over a ranked opponent. It was a feat that had not been seen since North Carolina ran a four-game gauntlet in 1996-97, until Kansas did it just a few weeks ago. With seven different Big 12 teams bouncing in and out of the polls in conference play, the tough tests come often, but only Kansas and Texas have managed to string together lengthy winning streaks in the country’s top conference.

Texas’ streak has propelled the team from a spot on the bubble to being safely in the NCAA picture — for now. With the Big 12 schedule providing a stiff test night after night, and with the league’s three toughest road tests still to come for the Longhorns, there’s still the danger of a losing skid that could muddy Texas’ NCAA picture. Another win this afternoon over a ranked opponent — and the No. 1 team according to RPI — would give Texas even more insurance against any late-season stumbles.

Meanwhile, Kansas is in the hunt for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, and is already getting close to running away with another Big 12 title. With Allen Fieldhouse providing the league’s strongest home-court advantage, challengers to the throne have to pick off wins when the Jayhawks hit the road. Kansas has avoided two potential potholes already, surviving road tests in both Norman and Ames, and the team still has five games left against Texas Tech, TCU, and West Virginia.

The number of good opportunities left for Big 12 contenders to trip up the Jayhawks are dwindling, with this afternoon providing one of the best chances remaining. Considering that KU already leads Oklahoma by 1.5 games and Texas by two full games, another Jayhawk win today could make that conference lead insurmountable.

By the numbers

Kansas has the nation’s fourth-best offense when it comes to offensive efficiency, and the team does it by destroying opponents in the paint. The Jayhawks score an adjusted 1.201 points per possession, a number that has actually gone up against tougher Big 12 competition. In conference games, KU has scored 1.214 raw points per possession. On the year, Kansas averages 37.5 points per game in the paint, which makes up 46.8% of its scoring.

Kansas has an impressive frontcourt that can easily score at the rim, plus guards and wings that can get a piece of the paint. While that all leads to quite a few points in the lane, Kansas’ excellent offensive rebounding numbers also play a role in the team’s interior scoring. The Jayhawks reclaim 36.6% of their missed shots, and frequently have a player snatching up a weakside board for the easy putback.

If keeping up with that kind of offensive efficiency wasn’t tough enough for Jayhawk opponents, they also find it very difficult to score against a stout Kansas defense. KU allows 0.953 adjusted points per possession, a defensive efficiency mark that ranks 28th in the nation. That defensive dominance is thanks in large part to a block percentage of 15.8%. With a 7-foot freshman man-child starting at center, and quality depth in the KU frontcourt, opponents find it tough to score inside for the entire 40 minutes.

One area of concern for the Jayhawks is their trouble hanging on to the basketball. On the year, Kansas has coughed it up once for every five possessions, a turnover rate that is among Division I’s bottom third. In conference play, the problem has become worse, with Kansas losing the ball on 21.1% of its possessions. Against Baylor’s zone, the Jayhawks repeatedly made poor passes, and second-half backcourt pressure from Oklahoma State led to KU unraveling and a Cowboy comeback.

The fact that Kansas can give up so many possessions and still have the fourth-best offense in the country is downright frightening. If and when the Jayhawks can manage to clean up their passing, it’s hard to imagine any team being able to keep pace with their scoring.

Meet the Jayhawks

On a team with three recruits who played in the 2013 Jordan Brand Classic, Andrew Wiggins (No. 22) stands out as the freshman who arrived in Lawrence with the most hype. Although he hasn’t wowed in every single game, he has had numerous plays in each one that underscore the athleticism and talent he possesses. Wiggins has a strong, quick first step that helps him blast past defenders when he slashes from the wings, and he seems to hit another gear when he runs the open floor in transition. The freshman also loves to spin like a top when he drives from the perimeter, slipping past defenders that thought they had contained his penetration.

Wiggins has certainly struggled with his turnovers in conference play, and had a very tough time against Baylor’s zone. He looked afraid to shoot against the closing length of the Bears, and passed up numerous opportunities to drive and attack the gaps. Instead, he tried to make passes that teammates weren’t expecting, or decided to dish in midair. He coughed it up four times against Baylor, and has lost it on 21.1% of his possessions against Big 12 opponents.

While Wiggins was the biggest freshman name for KU in the preseason, 7-foot center Joel Embiid (No. 21) has quickly become the team’s biggest star with his incredible performances. The big man only started playing basketball two years ago, but already has impeccable, smooth footwork and a variety of post moves. He understands how to get good position and take the right angles, so most defenders are beat before the entry pass is even made.

Teams have repeatedly tried to double and triple team Embiid on the catch, but he keeps the ball high and passes well against the pressure. He also uses those passing skills to his advantage in one-on-one situations, making hard pass fakes to get defenders off-balance before he moves to the rack.

Defensively, Joel has become a monster. His block rate of 12.2% ranks him 13th in the country, and he’s logged ridiculous seven and eight-block performances against UTEP and Oklahoma State. When he’s not blocking shots, he’s forcing opponents to take tough ones, and he’s constantly cleaning up the glass. Embiid is ranked in the Top 75 in both offensive (13%) and defensive (24%) rebounding percentages.

The biggest knock on Embiid’s game right now is how often he gets called for fouls, especially for throwing elbows. He was ejected for sizing up Kansas State’s Nino Williams on a rebound and popping him in the face, then earned technicals in each of the team’s next two wins, against Iowa State and Oklahoma State. While the latter two weren’t nearly as egregious as his cheap shot on Williams, Embiid now has the attention of officials, and that is going to make things a little tougher on him.

The third stud freshman is Wayne Selden, Jr. (No. 1), an excellent shooter and slasher who has been content playing sidekick to his star teammates. Coach Bill Self wasn’t as happy with that deferential attitude, and he has implored Selden to be more aggressive and take his open looks. The message finally sunk in as the calendar turned to conference play, with Wayne scoring 44 points in the team’s first two conference games, while posting an effective field goal percentage of 74.1%.

After those two solid performances, Selden went through a mini-slump. He shot just 33% from the field in the team’s next three games, including a 21.4% mark behind the arc. The cure, as it is for many teams and players, was a game against TCU. Selden shot 55.6% from the field against the Horned Frogs, scoring 12 points, while logging four assists. He followed that up with another solid outing against Iowa State on Wednesday night and seems primed to once again fill the role Coach Self envisioned for him.

At the point, senior Naadir Tharpe (No. 10) is making things click. Jayhawk fans have always been tough on the point guard, but this year he seems to be providing the quiet, steady leadership that a team of young stars needs. Tharpe’s assist rate of 30.3% is tops on the team, but he’s not simply a pass-first point guard. The senior is deadly coming off of high ball screens, as he loves to pull up and drill 18-footers.

Tharpe is also incredibly dangerous behind the arc, where he’s hit 43.8% of his long-range looks. The Jayhawks move the ball very quickly and take advantage of opponents who sell out to try to stop KU’s interior threat. Often that means swinging the ball around and hitting opposite post when teams double on the block, but it also leads to quite a few open looks for Tharpe and others waiting on the perimeter.

The fifth starter for Kansas is sophomore Perry Ellis (No. 34), a Wichita product who finally emerged as a big-time threat in last year’s Big 12 tournament. Ellis carried that momentum into this season, and he’s flourishing in the frontcourt as teams struggle to slow down Embiid. Perry has a good midrange jumper and an excellent face-up game from about 15 feet and in, plus great passing ability from the block and high post. Teams have not only tried doubling Embiid in the post, but have also thrown pressure at Ellis to try to force mistakes. Like Embiid, Ellis is able to find open teammates and get them easy looks.

While it’s tough to match the size and skillset of Kansas’ 7-foot Cameroonian center, the Jayhawks do have the luxury of a pair of solid frontcourt reserves. Jamari Traylor (No. 31) and graduate transfer Tarik Black (No. 25) are two imposing figures at 6’8″, 220 pounds and 6’9″, 260 pounds, respectively. Traylor has a really nice face-up game for a guy his size, and he also can whip some impressive passes when he puts the ball on the court and draws defensive attention with his drives.

Black turns into a wall when he sets ball screens and is a tough defender in the paint. In addition to blocking shots and cleaning up the defensive glass, he has also proven capable of planting his feet and drawing the charge, as he did three times against Kansas State earlier this year. Getting tagged with an offensive foul and turning it over is bad enough, but you have to imagine running into someone built like Black probably makes it even worse.

Unfortunately, Black sprained his ankle in a Big Monday win over Baylor and has missed the team’s last two games. He is expected to play this afternoon against Texas, but his mobility could understandably be limited. The outlook is not as good for freshman guard Conner Frankamp (No. 23), who will likely miss his second straight game due to a knee injury.

With Frankamp out, that leaves Kansas with Frank Mason (No. 0) and sparingly-used gunner Brannen Greene (No. 14) as the bench options in the backcourt. Mason, a freshman, has come on strong in recent games after struggling a bit as the team’s backup point. The 5’11” guard has a great first step and can penetrate at will, and his solid performances in Big 12 play have earned him even more playing time. Recently, Kansas has frequently put both Mason and Tharpe on the floor at once, giving the team two good ballhandlers to go with Selden or Wiggins on the wing.

Keys to the game

1) Limit offensive rebounds – Texas has done a phenomenal job on the glass this season, but the Horns have yet to face a frontcourt like this. The home loss to Oklahoma was due to Texas’ inability to clean up the defensive glass, and the team also struggled against a good-rebounding Kansas State team. The Jayhawks are already very tough to slow down, so the Longhorns must limit the number of second chances and easy putbacks that KU earns today.

2) Rotate quickly – Kansas moves the ball quickly and takes advantage of opponents who elect to double team. Cameron Ridley might find it difficult to keep up with the slippery Embiid, which means that Texas may have to risk using a second defender. If the Horns do, they will have to rotate quickly to keep up with KU’s ball movement and prevent wide open looks or easy cuts to the rim.

3) Take advantage of mistakes – The young Jayhawks have turned the ball over frequently this season, although many of their turnovers tend to be of the dead-ball variety. With Kansas boasting a strong interior defense, the Longhorns need to get as many points as they can in transition and on the secondary break. The Jayhawks gave up quite a few hoops to Oklahoma State off of turnovers, and they repeatedly lost Baylor’s Brady Heslip on the break, allowing open threes. If the Longhorns can get a nice chunk of points in the open court this afternoon, they should keep themselves in position to pull off the upset.

4) Stretch the floor – With the Jayhawks so strong inside, teams have found the most success when they can stretch the floor and pull the KU bigs out of the lane. Kansas typically rushes the ball screens with their posts, because their defense rotates well and eliminates easy buckets at the rim. However, this does leave them exposed to the pick-and-pop, something that Baylor and Isaiah Austin took advantage of last Monday. Both Jonathan Holmes and Connor Lammert have a nice three-point stroke, so the Longhorns need to exploit that tendency and have the bigs knock down a few triples after setting high ball screens.

The Texas Longhorns took care of business at home over the last week, knocking off back-to-back ranked teams in Iowa State and Kansas State. The wins propeled Texas from the “First Four Out” of Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology to an 8-seed playing in San Diego on the tournament’s opening weekend. The Longhorn performances also shifted the projections from Ken Pomeroy, making 10-8 the most likely Big 12 finish for Texas.

With only one-third of the conference race finished, Texas still has work to do. The Horns need to avoid losses against teams it should beat — namely West Virginia, TCU, and Texas Tech — and pick up a few more quality wins along the way. Today’s road game in Waco provides Texas yet another chance to log one of those quality wins and further increase the odds that the Horns will reach the magical 20-win plateau.

The Longhorns aren’t expected to win the game, with Pomeroy giving them a 34% chance to win and projecting a four-point final margin. However, an upset this afternoon would give Texas some more breathing room in terms of bubble talk, and also give the program its first streak of three consecutive victories against AP Top 25 opponents.

The Bears, meanwhile, are in desperate need of a win. After being tabbed as a potential challenger to Kansas’ Big 12 supremacy in the preseason, Baylor has dropped four out of its first five league games. The losses at Iowa State and Kansas didn’t help Baylor’s conference title chase, but they weren’t surprises. The road loss to Tech and a home loss to Oklahoma are what has the Bears reeling, already making them an afterthought in the Big 12 race after just three weeks.

The Bears aren’t in danger of missing the NCAA tournament, but they do need to right the ship quickly and start defending their home court. The Longhorns will not only be trying to beat a good Baylor team on the road today, but they’ll be trying to beat a good Baylor team desperate to prove something and get back on track.

By the numbers

Pace is going to be the biggest clash in this game, with the Longhorns coming in at an adjusted 71.4 possessions per game and the Bears averaging just 63.8 adjusted possessions. Baylor’s slow pace makes them even tougher to beat when you take a look at just how good their offensive efficiency numbers are. The Bears have posted an adjusted OE of 1.147 points per possession, the 29th-best mark in the country. With fewer possessions in the game and an offense that scores so frequently, it only takes a few stops by the Baylor defense to create an edge.

That defense isn’t spectacular, as it allows 1.005 points per possession, which ranks just inside the top third of D-I teams. Baylor’s D has stumbled through conference play and is ranked 7th in the league, allowing 1.133 points per possession against Big 12 foes. The Bears have a ton of length that typically makes their zone defense very tough to beat, but they have reacted slowly in recent conference games, allowing opponents far too many open looks.

Baylor usually runs a 2-3 or an extended 1-3-1, and most defensive possessions they appear to seamlessly transition between both looks. With 7’1″ Isaiah Austin (No. 21) patrolling the paint and the length of Cory Jefferson (No. 34) and Royce O’Neale (No. 00) on the wings, passes are more difficult for opponents, shots are usually challenged, and Baylor has some leeway to be able to recover from mistakes.

On the offensive end, Baylor’s strengths are reclaiming missed shots and knocking down long-range looks. The Bears are ranked third in the entire country with an offensive rebounding rate of 43%, and have posted an even higher mark against conference opponents. In Big 12 games, Baylor has won back 43.9% of its misses, making it very hard for opponents to slow them down. With the Bears already posting an effective field goal mark of 52.4%, it’s absolutely crippling when an opponent actually makes a stop, only to see a neon jersey swipe the ball and put it right back in the bucket.

Behind the arc, the exploits of sharpshooter Brady Heslip (No. 5) are well documented. With the Canadian product making more than 47% of his threes, it should come as no surprise that the Bears have an impressive 38.8% team three-point percentage. However, he is not the only accurate long-range shooter, as both Austin and Jefferson can spread the floor and have knocked down 40% of their rare three-point attempts. The wings, O’Neale and Taurean Prince (No. 35), can also hit from long range, with both hovering around the 37% mark. Baylor doesn’t actually take that many threes, but they have enough accurate shooters that opponents have to pay attention to everyone around the arc, not just Heslip, and that can open things up elsewhere on the floor.

Meet the Bears

The man that makes everything click for Baylor is juco transfer point guard Kenny Chery (No. 1). Coming to Waco from State Fair CC in Missouri, Chery is an incredible leader that simply knows how to get his team on the scoreboard. He’s not incredibly quick, but he takes good angles, uses hesitation dribbles, and has the strength to repeatedly get into the paint for easy looks or to set up teammates by drawing the D. Watching Chery, you will often think that he’s driving into a set defense or that his man has him easily guarded, but a few seconds later he’s at the rim or dumping off to a Baylor big down low.

Joining him in the backcourt is senior Gary Franklin (No. 4), an excellent defender and good shooter. Although Franklin has seen his shooting numbers dip in his final season, he’s still a threat to get hot from long range. Texas fans may remember his 3-for-3 performance behind the arc in Austin last year, so they know that he’s always capable of turning in some solid numbers.

Baylor runs an eight-man rotation where everyone gets quite a bit of playing time, so although Franklin is a starter, he eats up only 54.6% of his available minutes. Heslip is team’s other backcourt option, and although he comes off the bench, he actually plays just a slight bit more than Franklin. In addition to Heslip’s incredible 47.3% mark behind the arc, he’s also worked on his midrange game the last two seasons. Now, when opponents chase him off the perimeter, he can put the ball on the floor and connect on floaters or pull-up jumpers. The biggest knock on Heslip’s game is his defense, as he often struggles to contain dribble penetration and will get caught falling asleep when he should be providing help.

On the wings, O’Neale and Prince both offer the ability to face up and drive to the bucket, and can both knock down the three. Prince has been especially hot from long range in Big 12 play, having made 5-of-11 three-pointers in the last four games. He is also one of the many excellent offensive rebounders on the team, crashing from the wings to reclaim more than 9% of his offensive rebounding opportunities. His size and length have also provided mismatch opportunities in a Big 12 where many teams are opting for smaller lineups or three-guard looks. Baylor has taken advantage of those situations against man defenses, posting Prince up against smaller guards.

Jefferson and Austin also provide a ton of offensive rebounds for the Bears, snagging 10% and 9.5% of their chances, respectively. Although neither is exceptionally smooth with the ball, they both have serviceable handles and can face up opponents near the perimeter and get to the rim. Against Oklahoma, Austin even took one defensive rebound and brought it all the way up the floor before being rejected by Ryan Spangler at the rack.

Last season, Austin tended to hang out around the arc and settle for long jumpers or threes. Early this year, he still took his share of long jumpers, but was completely ignoring the three-point shot. It seems that the Baylor coaching staff recently asked him to start taking advantage of those opportunities, as he has suddenly committed to taking — and making — long-range shots in his last two games. After going just 1-for-7 on threes in the team’s first 16 games, Austin has taken 11 threes in his last two games and made six of them (54.5%).

The final piece of the core rotation is Rico Gathers (No. 2), an absolute tank of a man who leads the nation in individual offensive rebounding. At just 6’8″, Gathers has reclaimed 22% of the offensive board opportunities when he’s on the floor, repeatedly breaking the will of defenses by getting an easy putback after they had worked so hard to force a missed shot. That rebounding acumen allows Baylor to keep their length on the wings even when Austin goes to the bench, as Gathers typically guards the lane in their zone in those situations. Although that eliminates the shot-blocking threat down low, being able to leave Jefferson and Prince or O’Neale on the wings limits open threes and makes it harder to get the ball into the paint.

Keys to the game

1) Clean up the defensive glass – Baylor is not only the best offensive-rebounding team in the Big 12, but also one of the best in the nation. Although Texas has generally been very strong on the boards, the team will have its hands full trying to keep the Bears off the glass. The Longhorns were undone by Oklahoma’s offensive rebounding in their home loss to the Sooners, and a similar performance on the boards will spell disaster in Waco this afternoon. While Texas isn’t going to be able to dominate the defensive glass against this Baylor team, the Horns need to limit the number of second chances, especially when it gets down to crunch time.

2) Stick to Heslip like glue – Brady Heslip needs very little time or space to get off a shot behind the arc, and the Bears do a good job consistently running him off of screens to get him that little bit of separation. The Horns have had their struggles limiting damage from good three-point shooters this season, and they simply cannot afford to let Heslip go crazy today. The Bears are going to run the Longhorn defense ragged with staggered screens off the ball, so Texas has to communicate and offer help when the defenders inevitably get hung up.

3) Don’t let the ball stick – The Longhorns will have to be patient against the Baylor zone, but patience doesn’t equate to waiting. Texas needs to keep the ball moving and use dribble penetration to attack the gaps. The Baylor defense has sprung some leaks in Big 12 play, with Texas Tech exposing their weaknesses in a phenomenal performance up in Lubbock. The Red Raiders moved the ball quickly, passed it well out of the high and low post, and made good cuts off the ball. Baylor’s zone not only has the usual gap right in the middle, but also has a ton of space about twelve feet out on the baseline. If the Longhorns can avoid their bad habits of dribbling the ball too much beyond the arc and passing without purpose, there are points to be had against the Bears.

TEAM W L THIS WEEK NEXT WEEK Kansas 5 0 W vs. Baylor, 78-68 Sat at TCU Wed vs. Iowa State Sat at Texas Kansas State 4 2 L at Texas, 67-64 Sat at Iowa State Tue vs. Texas Tech Sat at West Virginia Oklahoma 4 2 W vs. TCU, 77-69 Sat at Texas Tech Mon vs. Oklahoma State Sat at Iowa State Texas 4 2 W vs. Kansas State, 67-64 Sat at Baylor Sat vs. Kansas Oklahoma State 3 2 Sat vs. West Virginia Mon at Oklahoma Sat vs. Baylor West Virginia 3 3 W vs. Texas Tech, 87-81 Sat at Oklahoma State Tue at Baylor Sat vs. Kansas State Iowa State 2 3 Sat vs. Kansas State Wed at Kansas Sat vs. Oklahoma Texas Tech 2 4 L at West Virginia, 87-81 Sat vs. Oklahoma Tue at Kansas State Sat vs. TCU Baylor 1 4 L at Kansas, 78-68 Sat vs. Texas Tue vs. West Virginia Sat at Oklahoma State TCU 0 6 L at Oklahoma, 77-69 Sat vs. Kansas Sat at Texas Tech

The big picture

Before conference play began, conventional wisdom held that Kansas was still the favorite in the Big 12, but that the Jayhawks could face stiff tests from Baylor and Oklahoma State. Even Iowa State emerged as a contender with its undefeated start, which included a win over Michigan and a road victory against BYU. With Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Texas all exceeding pre-season expectations, the league appeared to be deeper than ever, one in which the teams would beat each other up all season long.

The league certainly has proven to be a meat grinder, with every road win a valuable commodity. But while Oklahoma State and Baylor have both suffered losses in the first weeks of conference play, and Iowa State has stalled in a three-game losing streak, the Jayhawks have once again risen above the fray. With the teams now one-third of the way through the Big 12’s double round-robin, Kansas has a 1.5-game lead over its closest competitors, and Ken Pomeroy’s computers predict that KU will finish the season a full three games ahead of Oklahoma State.

At nearly this exact same point in last year’s conference race, I wrote about how Kansas had already turned it into a three-team battle. The Jayhawks were favored to win every game from that point on, and I even suggested that, “with odds like that, it’s hard to believe that KU could drop three games down the stretch.” Just four games later, I was already wrong, as the Jayhawks went on an unprecedented three-game skid that had Coach Bill Self saying his team that lost at TCU “was the worst team Kansas ever put on the floor, since Dr. Naismith was there.”

In the spirit of learning from past mistakes, I won’t go so far as to make any bold predictions about the Jayhawks in late January of this year. But, I will point out that any team that wants to catch Kansas will have to make up quite a bit of ground. Not only has Kansas already built a 1.5-game lead, but the Jayhawks have done it while also surviving two of the league’s tougher road tests at intimidating Hilton Coliseum and against a very OU team in Norman. The Jayhawks have also dispatched two of the presumed contenders at home, knocking off both Oklahoma State and Baylor in the last week. While road games in Manhattan, Austin, and Stillwater could still prove to be stumbling blocks, unless the Jayhawks trip up in all three of those games, somebody is going to have to defy the odds at Allen Fieldhouse.

Today’s games

Texas at Baylor; Saturday, 12:45 P.M. CT (Big 12 Network/ESPN3)

LRT’s full preview of the Texas/Baylor game will be available on Saturday morning.

Kansas State at Iowa State; Saturday, 12:45 P.M. CT (Big 12 Network/ESPN3)

On January 6th, Iowa State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin had a perfect combined record of 43-0. Over the following week, each of the teams finally fell from the ranks of the unbeatens….and they just kept losing. The three teams combined to lose 10 straight games once their unblemished marks disappeared, with Ohio State’s victory against Illinois on Thursday night finally breaking the group’s slide.

Since losing at Texas last Saturday, Iowa State has enjoyed an entire week off to refocus their efforts. Already in the midst of a three-game losing streak, the Cyclones are about to embark on a very tough four-game stretch against ranked opponents. Fortunately Iowa State is at home for two of those games, in an arena where they have posted a 17-3 record in conference play over the last two-plus seasons.

On paper, Saturday’s matchup with Kansas State seems to favor the Cyclones. Kansas State struggles to score outside the paint, while Iowa State’s interior defense is one of the best in the country. The Wildcats get most of their points from offensive rebounds or dribble penetration by Jevon Thomas and Marcus Foster. Unfortunately for K-State, the Cyclones actually rebound very well on the defensive end, and their length on the perimeter allows them to play conservatively and stifle dribble penetration.

The Wildcats have kept themselves in games all season long with a tough defense that keeps scores low enough for their average offense to keep up. In Iowa State’s high-powered offense, KSU is going to find one of its toughest tests yet. The Wildcats have to eliminate transition opportunities for Iowa State and hope that Thomas Gipson and Nino Williams can reclaim enough missed shots on the other end to keep them in the game.

West Virginia at Oklahoma State; Saturday, 1 P.M. CT (ESPN2)

The Mountaineers have yet to beat a team that isn’t below them in the standings, but they did give the Cowboys a scare when these two teams met in Morgantown just a few weeks ago. Terry Henderson went crazy from behind the arc in that game, knocking down five of his seven three-point attempts. In the end, it was a last-second three from Oklahoma State’s Markel Brown that sealed the deal, keeping the Cowboys from a crippling 0-2 start.

Henderson wasn’t able to recapture the magic from that performance in West Virginia’s next two games, but he game back with a vengeance earlier this week. In a sharpshooter’s battle with Texas Tech’s Dusty Hannahs, Henderson drilled 5-of-6 from long range in an 87-81 WVU win on Wednesday. The Mountaineers will need another solid performance from their X-factor to win in Stillwater, and they must maintain their Top 10 turnover percentage against an OSU team that repeatedly forces mistakes by visiting teams.

Oklahoma at Texas Tech; Saturday, 3 P.M. CT (Big 12 Network/ESPN Full Court/ESPN3)

The Baylor Bears were given a reminder just how hard it can be to win on the High Plains when they fell victim to Texas Tech in Lubbock last week. Although United Spirit Arena hasn’t been full in years, the students still show up for big games and that energy has proven useful in some massive upsets over the last few seasons. Add in the experience of new coach Tubby Smith, and the road trip to Tech is going to be a much dicier proposition for Big 12 opponents this year. The fans are planning a “White Out” to greet Oklahoma in this one, but the Sooners have already proven to be road warriors in victories at Texas and Baylor.

The Sooners will have to prevent Tech from dominating the offensive glass and they will have to lock down Hannahs, who is 9-for-9 on threes in his last two games. The Red Raiders, meanwhile, will have a hard time slowing down an OU offense that seems to have a different hero step up every night. Cameron Clark gets most of the pub, but it’s been Buddy Hield who has emerged as the Robin to his Batman in Big 12 play. The sophomore from the Bahamas is averaging more than 18 points per game against Big 12 opponents and posted offensive ratings over 118 in four of the six contests.

Kansas at TCU; Saturday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPNU)

Kansas fans remember the team’s most recent visit to TCU all too well. The Horned Frog victory in 2013 was probably the most unexpected upset of the year in college hoops, and it became the second defeat of a three-game losing streak, something that had not been seen in Lawrence since 2005. You can be sure that Coach Self and the upperclassmen will have the Jayhawk freshmen ready for this one.

That’s an unfortunate thing for a TCU team that is already slogging through a terrible Big 12 campaign. The Horned Frog offense is ranked 292nd out of 351 Division I teams in adjusted efficiency, and it’s only been worse since stepping up to face conference foes. TCU ranks dead last in league games for offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage and turnover percentage, and they rank seventh in offensive rebounding percentage. The only offensive mark that even puts them in the top half is their free-throw rate, which measures how frequently they get to the line. Unfortunately, even though TCU is fourth-best in conference play when it comes to earning free throws, they are again dead last in actual free-throw percentage, making less than 60% of their attempts.

If one paragraph of awful stats wasn’t enough, I leave you with one final number regarding TCU’s nightmare season. With 12 games still left to go, Pomeroy already gives the Horned Frogs a 20% chance to finish winless in the Big 12. Their best opportunities to steal a victory come in home games against Baylor, Texas, and Oklahoma, all contests in which TCU still only has a 23% chance to win.

The Texas Longhorns took a major step towards the NCAA tournament with Saturday afternoon’s win over Iowa State. With the victory, the Horns finally have the kind of win on their résumé that will hold cachet with the Selection Committe roughly two months from now. Even with Iowa State now on a three-game losing streak, the Cyclones are still ranked 10th in the all-important RPI. The victory was the first for Texas against the RPI Top 50, a data point that the committee weighs heavily when comparing Team A to Team B in order to dole out bids and nail down the S-curve.

One win, however, does not make a tournament-worthy team. The Longhorns will have to snag some more quality victories to keep themselves in the discussion, but fortunately will have numerous opportunities, as they compete in the nation’s top RPI-rated conference. Texas is in the midst of a four-game stretch against ranked opponents, all of whom are currently slotted 36th or better in the RPI. With the conference so deep this season, those types of schedule stretches are the norm rather than the exception; Kansas and Oklahoma both just completed their own streaks of four games against ranked opponents, as well. While the Longhorns could earn some of those quality wins on the road, the nature of home court in college basketball means that it will be decidedly easier for them to score some scalps at home.

Tonight, Kansas State provides yet another opportunity for Texas to pad its portfolio. The matchup is practically even, with Ken Pomeroy’s computers giving the Horns a 67-64 edge on their home floor. Texas let a golden opportunity slip away when Oklahoma escaped the Frank Erwin Center with a three-point win on the opening night of conference play. If the Horns want to keep their bubble prospects strong, they cannot afford to let another quality win slip away tonight.

The preview

I’ve toyed with the idea of a Twitter preview a few times this season when real-life time crunches pushed back my publication times much later than I preferred. Tonight, I’m going to give it a whirl and see how it goes. I could write a few thousand words on these K-State Wildcats, and I’ll do exactly that when the Longhorns face them on February 8th, instead of posting the usual, abbreviated preview that I typically use for the second half of the Big 12’s double round-robin. For tonight’s game, however, check out the Longhorn Road Trip Twitter timeline during the five o’clock hour for pre-game numbers, keys, and player notes. For posterity’s sake, I’ll embed them here on the website after the fact.

Until then, amigos…

Texas is back in action this afternoon, hosting a Top 10 opponent at the Drum. The Horns are coming off one of their most impressive performances of the season, a convincing road win in which they stifled the West Virginia offense and scored at will on the other end. UT’s defense held the Mountaineers to their lowest offensive efficiency mark of the season, allowing just 0.936 points per possession.

The Texas defense will need another strong performance this afternoon against an Iowa State squad that has the 26th-most efficient offense in the nation. The Cyclones get down the court in a hurry and find open shooters with just one or two passes, often scoring before their opponents even know what’s happened.

This game is an important opportunity for the Longhorns, who will likely be battling on the NCAA bubble all season long. In Joe Lunardi’s Thursday Bracketology update, UT was the last team left out of the field of 68. The bubble is just a bit smaller this season, as the formation of the American Athletic Conference means that there’s one less at-large bid available.

Texas is currently ranked 46th in the RPI, but are lacking any wins against teams ranked in the RPI Top 50. Thanks to North Carolina’s swoon in ACC play, the Tar Heels have slid to 53rd, leaving Texas with an 0-4 mark against the RPI Top 50.

Fortunately, the Big 12 is the top league as ranked by RPI, and the Horns will have an additional 10 chances to knock off a team in that important Top 50 group. Obviously, it’s easier to upset any team at home than on the road, and that’s especially true when talking about teams like Iowa State, Kansas State, and Kansas, who have tremendous home-court advantages. If the Horns want to finish at least .500 in league play and maintain an NCAA-worthy résumé, they will have to earn some wins at home against the Big 12’s top teams.

By the numbers

Iowa State’s aforementioned efficient offense is a quick-strike unit that can easily exploit even the smallest mistakes made by opposing defenses. The Cyclones play at the 16th-fastest tempo in Division I, and they boast the 7th-quickest offensive possessions, averaging just 14.7 seconds on the offensive end. Iowa State not only attacks in transition, but also repeatedly scores on the secondary break by finding open men when the defense does manage to stop the ball. The Cyclones are very disciplined when they run the floor, staying in their lanes and getting to spots where they can wait for open looks, or cutting to the rim on the weak side.

Defensively, Iowa State’s numbers are even better. The Cyclones have the 18th-most efficient defense in the country, allowing just 0.929 adjusted points per possession. They have a lot of length on the perimeter, which allows them to sag off and defend the interior, while still being able to close out on shooters for contested jumpers. As a result, Iowa State has a fantastic two-point defense and hardly ever sends opponents to the line. With the Cyclone D already set inside, driving guards have to pass it off, take a contested shot, or barrel forward and draw offensive fouls.

In Big 12 play, Iowa State’s defense has also started forcing mistakes. The Cyclones hardly ever forced turnovers in the non-conference slate, but are tops in the conference with a 23% defensive turnover percentage in four league games. That increase in turnovers has helped to offset a decrease in defensive rebounding, as the smaller Cyclone roster has given up more second chances now that they are battling the size of Big 12 teams.

Meet the Cyclones

An Iowa State name that most Big 12 fans will already know is that of Georges Niang (No. 31), a matchup nightmare that could best be described as a point forward. Although Niang doesn’t run the point, he has the ballhandling skills to do so, is an excellent passer, and can get to the rack by driving from the perimeter.

Niang doesn’t have the speed to blow by defenders, but he can pull opposing forwards away from the bucket, put the ball on the floor, and use smooth spin moves to beat them to the rim. When faced with smaller defenders, Coach Hoiberg loves to isolate him on the block, where Niang can easily score over both shoulders.

If Niang wasn’t already enough of a matchup problem for opponents, the Cyclones went and added graduate transfer DeAndre Kane (No. 50) to run the point. A 6’4″ guard, Kane has an aggressive streak that gets him to the rim repeatedly and makes him a handful on the glass. Kane always has a head of steam in transition, where his speed and strength make him tough to slow down. Even when he’s stopped on the break or on the drive, he makes excellent passes to set up teammates. And if opponents sag off to take away his driving ability, Kane can knock down the three, as his 35.9% success rate proves.

The former Marshall player has been putting up ridiculous numbers all season, but he has earned a lot of attention with his stats in Big 12 play. Through four games, Kane is averaging 22.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 3.5 steals. While Iowa State’s pace means that he has a few more possessions to earn those stats, the numbers are still staggering.

Freshman Matt Thomas (No. 21) had started every game this season before coming off the bench in Monday’s loss to Kansas. Thomas came to Ames with the reputation of a sharpshooter from his high school days in Wisconsin, but he has not taken too many shots in his first year at ISU. He’s only used 16% of the team’s shots when he’s on the floor, but is reliable enough as a spot-up guy, having knocked down 33% of his threes.

Sophomore Naz Long (No. 15) is the man who took Thomas’ starting spot on Monday night, and he’s the team’s only lights-out option from beyond the arc. Under Hoiberg, Iowa State has historically been a team that can bury you with threes, but this year’s team is only average with a 34.3% mark from long range. Long is the main reason that percentage isn’t worse, as he’s leading the team in both three-point attempts (72) and percentage (44.4%).

On the wing, senior Melvin Ejim (No. 3) is a good shooter and quick slasher who can be tough to stay in front of. His 35% three-point mark keeps defenders honest and helps him use head fakes to get space for drives to the lane or one-dribble pull-up jumpers just inside the arc. Ejim posted some phenomenal rebounding numbers as a junior, stats that were made even more impressive when considering he’s just 6’6″. This year, those numbers have been cut nearly in half, with Melvin’s rebounding percentages not even cracking the Top 500 on either end of the court.

Although Dustin Hogue (No. 22) is also 6’6″, his mindset is more consistent with that of a power forward. Hogue is always scrapping inside for boards, and his 22.6% defensive rebounding rate ranks him in the Top 100 nationally. He is also the team’s best offensive rebounder and boasts a nice shooting percentage because of how many easy looks he earns for himself with hard work on the glass. Even when he’s not getting second-change points, he has the skills to get good opportunities inside, despite being undersized.

The Iowa State bench is very short, with no options to back up Niang, Ejim, or Hogue. Freshman guard Monte Morris (No. 11) is the final player in the core, seven-man rotation, and he averages just over 22 minutes per game. Morris has speed and good handles, but can sometimes look a little too hyped-up and jittery when he’s trying to dribble penetrate. Morris also appears to have a pretty nice three-point stroke, but doesn’t have much of a sample size on which to judge. The freshman has made nearly 39% of his threes, but is averaging less than one make per game.

Keys to the game

1) Dominate the glass – Iowa State’s defense forces opponents into taking contested jumpers, which typically means a lot of missed shots. Texas has done a good job reclaiming their misses this year and turning those into points, while the Cyclones have struggled on the defensive glass in conference play. If the Longhorns aren’t exploiting that advantage and earning second chances against an ISU team that will force a lot of misses, they will have a hard time keeping up on the scoreboard today.

2) Knock down threes – With the Cyclones sagging into the paint and taking away Texas’ interior game, it means that the Longhorns are going to have to knock down their open threes. Oklahoma found a lot of success with the drive-and-kick in their win over Iowa State last Saturday. The Longhorns need to do the same this afternoon, with Damarcus Croaker and Martez Walker playing the role of spot-up shooter. Texas can also probably find some success with Jonathan Holmes and Connor Lammert utilizing their pick-and-pop skills.

3) Don’t over-penetrate – Javan Felix and Isaiah Taylor have both made their share of mistakes this season by driving against set defenses and getting themselves into trouble. While Texas will need both Felix and Taylor to be aggressive this afternoon, they have to be smart about reading what the defense is giving them. If not, it will result in senseless turnovers that will fuel Iowa State’s transition game.

4) Maintain poise – In Iowa State’s 14-0 start, eight of those wins came after the Cyclones dug out of a hole of at least seven points. Thanks to their ability to score in a hurry, it doesn’t take long for the Cyclones to steal momentum and erase deficits. The Longhorns are going to have to weather a few runs from Iowa State today if they want to pull off the upset, so they have to maintain composure when the Cyclones inevitably get on a roll.