Just hours before the 2012 NCAA bracket is finally revealed, St. Bonaventure has become the first and only bid thief of the year, stealing the final at-large slot in the Big Dance and sending one mystery team into the NIT field. A week ago, a development like that might have been terrifying for fans of the Texas Longhorns. But after a week in which in appeared that nobody wanted to win and punch their ticket, the Horns look to be safely in the field as the clock counts down towards the Selection Show.

It now appears most likely that Texas will be an 11-seed in the NCAA field, but with teams being moved up and down one line to accommodate bracketing rules, we could see the Longhorns as high as 10th or as low as 12th. Perhaps most importantly, it seems like Texas has played its way right past the First Four in Dayton, giving a young and thin roster a little more rest before playing on Thursday or Friday.

Of course, it’s been a crazy year, and the profiles at the bottom all start to look the same after a few minutes of staring at them. The committee could come out of left field and leave a team out that most have thought was safe all along. But when you compare Texas’ four RPI Top 50 wins to other bubble teams, it would be hard to find enough teams that could reasonably be included before the Longhorns.

With that in mind, we’re taking a look at where the Longhorns might end up. What’s important to remember when looking at potential landing spots is that the top four seeds are geographically protected as much as possible, while teams from the same conference can’t be put in the same pod. If Texas is an 11-seed or 12-seed, they will end up in a pod with the 3/14 and 6/11 games or a pod with the 4/13 and 5/12 games.

What all that means is that the Longhorns won’t be making any hotel reservations in Omaha. Missouri and Kansas will be protected seeds and should both land in Nebraska for their second and third round action, ruling that out as a destination for Texas. It also most likely eliminates Greensboro, as Duke and North Carolina should be the protected seeds for that site, and both look to be on the top two seed lines. Unless Texas is slid up to a 10-seed, they wouldn’t be able to play in the Greensboro pods.

The other teams that should be on the top two seed lines are Syracuse, Kentucky, Ohio State, and Michigan State. The Buckeyes aren’t allowed to play in the Columbus pods, so their most likely destination is Pittsburgh. That’s certainly where Syracuse will end up, so we can scratch the Steel City off of the list of possible Texas destinations, as well. Kentucky will take up one of the two Louisville pods, while Michigan State should get sent to Columbus.

The only other pod that we can safely eliminate from consideration at this point is one of the two in Albuquerque. Baylor is likely destined for a 3-seed, and although Albuquerque is only about 50 miles closer to Waco than Nashville, there are certainly more top seeds in the eastern half of the U.S. Somebody has to go to the Albuquerque and Portland pods, so it just makes the most sense to put Baylor there.

What we’re left with, then, are seven possible pods for the Longhorns: Two in Portland, two in Nashville, one in Albuquerque, one in Columbus, and one in Louisville. Of course, all of this deduction is thrown out the window if the committee surprises us and puts Texas on the 10-seed line.

The Longhorns are now in wait-and-see mode until Selection Sunday, having bowed out of the Big 12 Championship in last night’s semifinals. Texas is slotted 48th in the latest update from ESPN’s Daily RPI, with a 4-11 mark against the RPI Top 50. Fortunately for the Longhorns, most of their comparable bubble peers failed to improve their standing in conference tournaments, while the Horns snagged a big victory over Iowa State.

Yesterday proved fairly uneventful on the bubble, although Colorado’s late-night upset of Cal in the Pac-12 semifinals could lead to one case of bid larceny on the West Coast. Elsewhere, in that dangerous land on the wrong side of the cutline, a few bubble teams kept their hopes alive, as Marshall and Ole Miss grabbed wins in games they couldn’t afford to lose. N.C. State earned a big win as well, but is still probably right in the danger zone. If the Wolfpack wants to feel completely safe on Selection Sunday, a win today would likely erase all doubt.

Marshall vs. Memphis (10:30 A.M. CT, CBS)
This game is already at half on CBS, and the Tigers are continuing their impressive march through the C-USA tournament. The Thundering Herd has a profile that’s certainly worthy of bubble consideration, but would probably still be on the wrong side of things if the bracket were released today.

Marshall is currently 4-4 against the RPI Top 50 and has an impressive 19th-ranked SOS, but one troubling loss to East Carolina taints the résumé. The Herd might still squeak into the field with a loss to the Tigers, but Memphis is in the Big Dance no matter what. Bubble Nation is definitely hoping that Memphis maintains their lead for another 20 minutes.

North Carolina State vs. North Carolina (12 P.M. CT, ESPN)
The Wolfpack is right on the razor’s edge entering today’s play, and the arguments for and against Mark Gottfried’s bunch are both compelling. The Pack is 2-8 against the RPI Top 50 and 7-9 against the Top 100, but all victories came against teams ranked 45th or worse in today’s Daily RPI update. The easiest way for N.C. State to get into the tournament is to earn it with a win over the Heels today. Fans of other bubble teams will be hoping that John Henson is ready to go and that UNC can keep the Wolfpack sweating in the at-large pool.

Xavier vs. Saint Louis (2:30 P.M. CT, CBS College Sports)
Xavier might have punched its dance ticket with a win over fellow bubbler Dayton in last night’s A-10 quarters, but a win over the Billikens would probably clinch things. With two possible bid thieves in the other A-10 semifinal, Bubble Nation is hoping that the winner of this game can also win the league title tomorrow. Those bubblers who need even more help would prefer that Saint Louis is the team to shut out the bid thieves.

Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt (2:30 P.M. CT, ABC)
Ole Miss is one of those fringe bubble teams that could use some extra help, but the Rebels still have the opportunity to earn a bid themselves. Mississippi is currently just 1-6 against the RPI Top 50, but 6-11 against the Top 100. They’ll have a shot at another quality win today when they face Vandy, which is currently ranked 29th in the RPI. The Rebs would also get a shot at either Kentucky or Florida if they can get past the Commodores, although at that point, a win would equal an auto-bid. Bubble teams will be firmly in Vanderbilt’s corner this afternoon.

Colorado vs. Arizona (5 P.M. CT, CBS)
This game has no real impact on the bubble, as the Pac-12 is required to get at least one bid. (Trust us. We checked the bylaws.) Of course, now the committee has the difficult decision of what other teams are worthy of a bid in this putrid conference. California has been considered the most likely candidate all season long, but their fade down the stretch makes things more complicated. Would the committee leave out regular-season champ Washington for a Cal team that finished second and lost in the tournament semis? Does that mean that the Pac-12 actually ends up stumbling into a three-bid scenario? Trying to sort out this conference’s outlook only gives us a raging headache, so one can only imagine what is happening in the Selection Committee’s war room.

As for the minor bubble implications of this game, Arizona has a marginal edge on Colorado when it comes to at-large profile, so bubble fans should be pulling for the ‘Cats. It’s incredibly unlikely that either team will earn an at-large, but Arizona does have slightly better odds. (Cue Lloyd Christmas.) At this point, even those fractions of a percentage point matter to Bubble Nation.

Long Beach State vs. UC Santa Barbara (9 P.M. CT, ESPN2)
The 49ers reached the Big West title game despite a sluggish start against UC-Irvine in last night’s semifinal. Long Beach would be a very interesting test case for the committee if they were to fall short in the league title game. A loss here would leave the 49ers with a 1-6 mark against the RPI Top 50 and a 2-7 record against the Top 100. With an ugly 150+ RPI loss against Cal State Fullerton, would that be enough to get LBSU into the tournament? Other bubble teams don’t want to find out, so they are pulling for the 49ers to win the auto-bid and preempt the debate.

All week, the buzz in Kansas City surrounded the impending final game of the famous Border War, a rare third meeting between Kansas and Missouri in the Big 12 Championship. This time, it would be for more than just bragging rights, with the possible prize being a favorable NCAA path through the St. Louis regional. Unfortunately, the Jayhawks didn’t hold up their end of the bargain, falling short against Baylor in the first semifinal on Friday night.

Although Missouri was denied the chance to face their rivals one last time, it didn’t seem to affect their motivation. The Tigers looked like a well-oiled machine against the Longhorns in the second semifinal of the night, coasting to an 81-67 win behind 23 points each from Kim English and Flip Pressey.

What looked good

The best offense for Texas on Friday night was the putback, as the Horns dominated the second-chance scoring department by a 22-11 count. Texas missed numerous short-range shots, but strong play inside led to gobs of offensive rebounds and extended possessions. The Horns posted an offensive rebounding mark of 50%, their third-best output of the year, and best since a February 4th win over Texas Tech.

Jonathan Holmes, Jaylen Bond, and Clint Chapman were the workhorses on the glass, combining to grab 35% of the offensive rebounding opportunities by themselves. Holmes racked up the putbacks, chalking up 11 points as a result. Bond missed some easy looks inside and finished with just four points, but his tenacity on the glass was huge. Chapman, meanwhile, seemed to always come up with key tip-ins when shots rimmed out.

The Horns also had some flashes of brilliance on the offensive end from Sheldon McClellan. It only happened on a few possessions, but when he took the defender baseline, the Tigers couldn’t keep him in front of them. He finished the night with 10 points in 30 minutes off the bench.

There aren’t many games left in this season, but the key to McClellan’s growth will be whether or not he becomes more aggressive and assertive. This team needs more players pressuring the defense, and he has the skillset to do it. Wherever the Horns head next week for postseason play, they will need McClellan to help Myck Kabongo and J’Covan Brown by attacking the defense with the bounce.

Brown posted 21 points against the Tigers with yet another strong second half, although he gave Texas fans a huge scare in the process. J’Covan made a layup with 16:27 to go that pulled the Horns to within four points, but fell into the row of photographers on the baseline and slammed his head into a camera. Brown was on the floor for what felt like an eternity, but ended up missing only about two minutes of game time. He was still aggressive following his return, scoring 12 of his points after the injury.

Kabongo’s performance was a mixed bag, but he seemed to get better as the game went on. He finished with five assists to just one turnover, but he seemed frazzled by the Missouri defense as the Tigers put on a run in the middle of the first half. After that bad stretch, he played a much more controlled game at the point, and the Longhorns tightened up their ball control.

What needed work

The big problem for Myck on Friday night was an inability to finish inside. That’s been a sticking point for the guard all season long, and quite frankly is the main reason we feel he’d benefit from another year at Texas. Kabongo needs to add some strength to finish through contact, instead of having to try — and usually miss — acrobatic shots through traffic.

As for those turnovers, it felt like a repeat of the game between the two teams in Columbia. Texas coughed it up six times in the first 12 minutes of last night’s game, including four times in a 2:42 stretch. During that brief span, Missouri expanded their lead from two points all the way out to 10, and kept the Longhorns at arm’s reach for the rest of the half. As we mentioned, Texas did a much better job controlling the ball after that disastrous stretch, but the team has very little margin for error against elite teams like Missouri. Every possession has to count if Texas wants to grind out wins against better competition.

On the other end of the court, the Texas defense really struggled. There were a few possessions early in the game where the Horns denied dribble penetration and forced Ricardo Ratliffe off the block, but otherwise the Tigers put on a clinic. Early on, the Longhorns went under the screens for Flip Pressey, a repeat of the deadly mistake they made in Columbia. Once again, the sophomore made Texas pay, drilling three early threes as part of his 23-point night.

The Longhorns also consistently failed to deny penetration, to stop the ball in transition, and to rotate quickly. The poor rotation allowed Missouri to kill them with crisp ball movement all around the court. The Texas defense was always a few seconds behind the ball and the play, leading to tons of open looks for the great Tiger shooters. As a result, they finished 45.5% from behind the arc and posted a 52.6% mark from the field.

In tempo-free terms, Mizzou scored 1.288 points per possession, the second-worst defensive performance for Texas all year. The worst came when the two teams met in Columbia, where the Tigers posted an offensive efficiency mark of 1.306 PPP.

The big picture

Fortunately, it appears that Texas did enough in beating Iowa State on Friday night to make their 14th-consecutive NCAA tournament. Barring any major bid thievery in the next 30 hours, Texas should be safely in the field and could possibly even avoid the First Four in Dayton. While a win over Missouri would have sewn up a bid and eliminated any of the drama from Selection Sunday, Texas at least was able to avoid a demoralizing blowout that could have raised questions about their tournament-worthiness.

Next up: NCAA Bracket Unveiling; Sunday, 5 P.M. CT, CBS

The Texas Longhorns earned their biggest win of the season last night, dispatching Iowa State in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Championship. The win, combined with numerous losses by other bubble teams, seems to have the Longhorns safely in the NCAA field for now. Tonight’s third tussle with Missouri offers Texas a chance to completely lock up that dance ticket, as a win would give the Horns five against RPI Top 50 opponents. Fortunately, the Horns still look to be in good shape for the NCAAs with a loss in tonight’s game, as long as it remains competitive.

Meet the Tigers

For an in-depth look at the Missouri roster and their style of play, check out LRT’s preview of the first game between these two teams.

The first meeting

Missouri knocked off Texas by an 84-73 count when the teams met at Mizzou Arena on January 14th. Read LRT’s recap of the game for a full breakdown.

The second meeting

When the two schools met in Austin on January 30th, the final few minutes offered nail-biting excitement. The Longhorns erased a 10-point deficit in less than four minutes and even took a lead in the final seconds. Michael Dixon was the hero for the Tigers, though, putting in an impressive game-winning shot with 31 seconds to go. For a full recap of the action in that game, click here for the LRT post-game.

Keys to the game

1) Limit the turnovers – The Longhorns made things difficult in both games against Missouri by wasting first-half possessions. In the first meeting, Texas coughed it up on 22% of their possessions, with two frustrating ones coming during a first-half Mizzou rally that built the lead to double-digits. When the teams met again in Austin, the Horns ended nearly a quarter of their first-half possessions with turnovers. There is little margin for error if Texas wants an upset tonight, so they will have to exhibit the same kind of ball control they had in the win over Iowa State last night.

2) Get a big game from the bigs – Texas will once again be without Alexis Wangmene, who had surgery on his wrist earlier this week. Fortunately, the Tigers typically run a four-out, one-in look, so that hole in the frontcourt won’t be as big of an issue as it could be. Texas needs Clint Chapman to avoid fouls and give another warrior performance like he did against Iowa State. Jonathan Holmes averaged eight boards and 23 minutes in his two games against Missouri, so Texas will be looking for similar output from the freshman tonight.

3) Limit dribble penetration – In the first game, it was Flip Pressey that dissected the Texas defense. In the second, it was Dixon who repeatedly shook J’Covan Brown and lit up the scoreboard. Missouri is great at penetrating with the bounce and getting easy looks for Ricardo Ratliffe or open threes for their dead-eye shooters. When teams take away that penetration — and it’s extraordinarily tough to do against Missouri — the Tiger offense no longer looks unstoppable. If the Longhorns can limit the damage done by the drivers, they should be able to hang tough and challenge the Tigers.

Last night, the Texas Longhorns took a massive step forward in their hunt for a 14th-consecutive NCAA bid, knocking off Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship quarterfinals. The win was the fourth for Texas against the RPI Top 50, and sets up a third meeting with 2-seed Missouri. When the day started, Texas simply needed to beat Iowa State to stay in the discussion. But with carnage reigning across Bubble Nation, that win not only kept the Horns in the NCAA discussion, but might have also put them in the field for good.

Washington, the Pac-12 regular season champion, went down to Oregon State in the quarterfinals of the league tournament. As we discussed in yesterday’s Burnt Orange Bubble Watch, this year’s Pac-12 has the profile of a middle-tier mid-major conference. If Cal were to win the league tournament, it wouldn’t be a stretch to give the Pac-12 only one bid. With their loss to the Beavers, the Huskies will now certainly be sweating on Selection Sunday.

Texas found additional help in the Big 10 tournament, where Minnesota knocked off Northwestern in overtime. The Wildcats have never made an NCAA tournament, despite being incredibly close over the last few years. This season looks like another round of the same sad story, as the loss gives Northwestern a 1-10 record against the RPI Top 50 and a 5-12 mark against the RPI Top 100. Even in a season with an incredibly soft bubble, that profile just doesn’t pass the smell test.

While the Longhorns were taking care of Iowa State in the nightcap, Mississippi State was completing an epic choke job in New Orleans. The Bulldogs had lost five straight in late February before righting the ship with two wins to wrap up the regular season. While they were definitely sliding down the S-curve, the team was still safely in the field and just needed a win or two in the SEC tournament to feel more confident. Instead, Mississippi State lost to a pretty terrible Georgia team, and now must wait for the verdict on Selection Sunday.

As the calendar turned to Friday on the East Coast, Oregon was also laying an egg of their own in the Pac-12 tournament. A last-second three-pointer was off the mark from Devoe Joseph — brother of former Horn Cory Joseph — and the Ducks lost to Colorado in the quarterfinals. Oregon had slowly climbed into the bubble picture over the last two weeks, but now look to have already removed themselves from consideration. The Ducks finished the season with an 0-5 mark against the RPI Top 50 and went 5-8 against the Top 100.

Although Texas might be safely in the field at this point, a little more mayhem on the bubble would only solidify the team’s standing. Here’s a rundown of the important games today:

N.C. State vs. Virginia (1 P.M. CT, ESPN2)
The Wolfpack took care of business against Boston College on Thursday, setting up a big-win opportunity against Virginia this afternoon. N.C. State currently has three RPI Top 50 wins (Texas, Miami twice) and five against the RPI Top 100. With so many losses elsewhere on the bubble, a victory over the Cavaliers could be enough to squeak the Wolfpack into the field. A loss, on the other hand, would likely send them to the NIT.

St. Joseph’s vs. St. Bonaventure (1:30 P.M. CT, syndicated in A-10 markets)
The Hawks won their opening-round match-up against Charlotte on Tuesday, and have enjoyed watching the bubble meltdowns as they waited for today’s A-10 quarterfinals. St. Joe’s is 4-6 against the RPI Top 50 and 6-9 against the Top 100. Losses to American and Richmond are ugly stains on an otherwise-good profile, so the Hawks will need to pick up some big wins in Atlantic City this weekend. A victory here could give them an opportunity to log another signature win against Temple in the A-10 semis.

Central Florida vs. Memphis (5:30 P.M. CT, CBS College Sports)
The Golden Knights are still a fringe bubble team at best, but now find themselves two wins away from an NCAA tournament berth. An upset win over Memphis this evening would give UCF a 3-5 mark against the RPI Top 50 and push them to 4-6 against the Top 100. That isn’t overly impressive, but might be enough to get them involved in some discussions. For fans of other bubble teams, the thought of UCF possibly winning the C-USA auto-bid is also cause for concern. If a team that is barely in the bubble discussion wins a conference tourney, you can be sure that another bubble squad is getting squeezed out.

Tennessee vs. Ole Miss (6:30 P.M. CT, ESPN Full Court/ESPN3)
The Volunteers have been waiting for their SEC quarterfinal all week, licking their chops as other NCAA contenders have stumbled down the stretch. The Vols are 4-7 against the RPI Top 50, 7-10 against the Top 100, and have been a completely different team since adding Jarnell Stokes on January 14th. Tennessee is 10-5 since the freshman made his debut against Kentucky, and the team is riding a four-game winning streak heading into the SEC tourney. The Selection Committee considers injuries and suspensions when debating a team’s profile, so the Volunteers could likely punch their NCAA ticket with a win or two in New Orleans this weekend.

Miami vs. Florida State (8 P.M. CT, ESPN2)
Like fellow ACC bubbler N.C. State, Miami simply earned the win it had to have in yesterday’s first-round action, knocking off Georgia Tech in an ugly game. The Hurricanes are one of Lunardi’s First Four Out, but have just a 2-7 mark against the RPI Top 50 and are 3-10 against the Top 100. Their road win against Duke is definitely one to hang their hats on, but the lack of total quality wins could hurt in head-to-head comparisons. Win this one against the Seminoles, and the Hurricanes should get a shot at a second big win over Duke.

Arizona vs. Oregon State (8 P.M. CT, FSN)
Arizona shouldn’t be in consideration for an NCAA bid at this point, but it’s been that kind of year on the bubble. Of course, the Wildcats could end all speculation and simply win their next two games to earn the league’s auto-bid to the NCAA tournament. The ‘Cats are only 1-3 against the RPI Top 50 and 5-8 against the Top 100, with two of those wins coming against teams ranked in the upper nineties (Stanford at No. 95, Valparaiso at No. 99). Fans of bubble teams should be pulling for another Oregon State upset and a Cal victory in the finale.

Xavier vs. Dayton (8:00 P.M. CT, syndicated in A-10 markets)
In what could amount to a bubble elimination game, A-10 rivals Xavier and Dayton will put their seasons on the line in Atlantic City. The Flyers have a very interesting profile, as they own four RPI Top 50 wins, but also have a pair of head-scratching losses to Miami of Ohio and Rhode Island. Xavier, meanwhile, has just two Top 50 wins, but seven against the Top 100. A win in this game won’t guarantee anything for either team, but the loser can likely shelve those NCAA dreams.

Colorado State vs. San Diego State (8:00 P.M. CT, CBS Sports)
Colorado State is in a similar situation to Texas, albeit a slightly better one. The Rams had three RPI Top 50 wins against the Mountain West’s best teams, but all came at home. A road win against Air Force in the season finale and a neutral-site win against TCU yesterday have served to bolster the road/neutral record, while losses around the country have only solidified Colorado State’s standing. At this point, it’s hard to find enough teams with profiles good enough to justify leaving CSU out. Of course, a win over the Aztecs in tonight’s semifinal would certainly lock things up.

Long Beach State vs. Cal-Irvine (8:30 P.M. CT, ESPNU in Big 12 Network markets)
Bubble fans across the country are rooting hard for LBSU this week, as the 49ers would be an interesting at-large candidate if they fall short in the Big West tournament. Thanks to the Big West’s re-seeding of teams in the conference tournament, that outcome is incredibly unlikely. Tonight, the 49ers are facing the league’s 7-seed in Cal-Irvine, just a day after dispatching of 8-seed UC-Davis.

Long Beach State was considered an NCAA lock for much of the season, but an inexplicable loss to Cal State Fullerton in the season finale has muddied the picture. The 49ers have just one RPI Top 50 win, which came against Xavier. A loss by the Musketeers in the A-10 quarters could knock them right out of that group, however, which would leave LBSU with zero Top 50 wins on the profile. It doesn’t look like the 49ers could absorb a Big West tourney loss and still make the field, but other bubble teams don’t want to have to test this theory. Bubble Nation is firmly in LBSU’s corner this weekend.

Colorado vs. Cal (10:30 P.M. CT, FSN)
As mentioned above, fans of bubble teams need Cal to win the Pac-12 tournament. If that happens, the Pac-12 could be limited to just one bid on Selection Sunday, opening the door for other at-large candidates.