If there were ever a prototypical “trap game”, tonight’s tangle with Oklahoma State in Stillwater would be it. The Longhorns are coming off of their biggest regular-season win in school history, a road upset of the 2nd-ranked Kansas Jayhawks that vaulted Texas to first place in the Big 12. This Saturday, the Horns will host a Missouri team that was ranked in the top ten as recently as two weeks ago.

But tonight, Texas must first tackle a young, tough Oklahoma State team in a gym that can be very difficult to steal road wins in. The Cowboys have won 13 straight at Gallagher-Iba Arena, with the most recent loss coming against Texas last season. If the Horns have a letdown after Saturday’s big win or look ahead to the Tigers, they could easily be tagged with a loss tonight.

By the numbers

Glancing at Dean Oliver’s Four Factors, the Cowboys are generally unremarkable. They aren’t exceptional in any category, but also manage to avoid being particularly terrible at any facet of the game. The one factor they do excel in is free throw rate, as OSU earns nearly one free throw attempt for every two field goal tries. Their 45% FTR puts them 34th in the nation.

Unfortunately, the Cowboys tend to put opponents on the line even more than they get therethemselves. OSU opponents have a FTR of 46.3%, and have been converting at an impressive 72.9% rate. The Pokes should get a bit of a break from a Texas team that has struggled at the line all season. Of course, the Horns made 83% of their free throws in a pair of games against A&M and KU last week, so OSU could be catching Texas at the wrong time.

The most surprising number the Cowboys have posted this year is a disappointing 31.2% mark behind the arc. On a team with sharpshooting Keiton Page in the backcourt, that number is far too low. But without James Anderson on the roster this season, Page is drawing a lot of extra attention from defenses, and his three-point percentage has dropped to 35.1% as a result.

When it comes to tempo, Oklahoma State is once again average. They run a slightly slower pace than the D-I average, but they certainly wouldn’t be classified as a “burn” offense. The Longhorns average just 1.5 more possessions per game, so there is hardly any difference in style between the two teams. That being said, it still could benefit Texas to push things against Oklahoma State. The Horns have a more-efficient offense, so adding possessions only serves to further exploit that advantage.

Meet the Cowboys

Coach Travis Ford has a young team to work with this season, and following the December surgery on guard Fred Gulley, he has a short bench to manage, too. The Cowboys run eight deep, although Ford has been giving more minutes to his younger players as the season wears on, hoping to provide some experience for his bench.

OSU is led by senior Marshall Moses, who is one of the most-improved players in the Big 12 this year. He’s turned into a double-double machine in his senior campaign, and is averaging more than 15 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. Moses gets the bulk of his points down low, and he still looks stiff trying to take a midrange jumper, but there’s no doubt that he’s the key to OSU’s success.

Joining Moses in the frontcourt is Darrell Williams, a juco transfer who played at Midland College before making the trip to Stillwater. He’s a real force inside, and would likely be the team’s leading rebounder if he could keep himself out of foul trouble. Williams is averaging more than seven boards a game, but has been limited to just 20 minutes a game thanks to those foul issues. Against Kansas State, Williams fouled out in roughly five minutes on the court.

Matt Pilgrim is the other big man for Coach Ford, and he started 11 games this year before being supplanted by Williams in the starting five. Pilgrim isn’t nearly the scoring threat that Moses is, mostly due to the fact that Pilgrim seems averse to attacking the basket. He has the post moves to score, but has to be constantly reminded by his coaches to actually put them to use. Fortunately for OSU, even when he’s not scoring, Pilgrim has active hands on defense and leads the team in steals.

While OSU has a talented frontcourt, albeit a thin one, the future of the team is clearly in the backcourt. Junior Keiton Page is the second-leading scorer on the team with 13.8 points per game, but he has been a streaky scorer this season. After pouring in a combined 43 points against Alabama and Stanford, Page managed just four against Gonzaga and UTSA. The Longhorns can’t afford to give him open looks tonight, but if they are able to front him and frustrate him early, he could have a quiet game.

The most impressive guard for OSU has been Jéan-Paul Olukemi, a transfer from Vincennes University who burned his redshirt during his transfer season. As a result, Olukemi is just a sophomore this year, and it’s clear he is going to be a Big 12 star in the near future. Olukemi is incredibly athletic, can easily create his own shot off the dribble, and knows how to crash the glass from the wings. OSU has struggled at times this season when their guards fail to penetrate, so Olukemi’s playmaking abilities often inject life into a stagnant offense.

Along with Page and Olukemi in the backcourt, the Pokes rely on the services of tiny point guard Ray Penn, Jr. Listed at a generous 5’11”, what Penn lacks in height, he makes up for with quickness. While he knows how to get to the rim and can also knock down the three, he’s most comfortable facilitating the offense. Penn can blow by defenders easily and draw help, which has allowed him to rack up a team-high 51 assists on the year.

Off the bench, Coach Ford has two options at guard. Senior Nick Sidorakis was a starter for much of the year before Olukemi played his way into the starting five, so he provides experienced leadership off the bench. Sidorakis has had a tough season, especially behind the arc, where he’s just 7-for-32 this season.

The other reserve guard, Markel Brown, is also struggling from long range, where he’s made just 29% of his attempts so far. A freshman, Brown is one of those players earning more minutes as the season rolls on, and he will likely be a key component of a pretty salty OSU roster next season. He comes from Peabody High in Louisiana, where he played on an undefeated state championship team, and was named Player of the Year in his home state. While he’s not contributing much on offense yet, Brown is already being relied upon for solid perimeter D.

In the frontcourt, Jarred Shaw and Roger Franklin have not played many minutes off the bench, but could see some extra action tonight against UT’s bigs. The pair has combined for an average of 2.3 points and 2.5 rebounds in 15 minutes per game. Also on the bench is sophomore Reger Dowell an exceptionally quick guard from Duncanville who is averaging just six minutes per game.

Keys to the game

Through their first four conference games, the Longhorns have a free-throw rate of 53.4%, a result of a commitment to attacking inside. Against an Oklahoma State team that constantly puts opponents on the line, this bodes well for Texas’ success. If the Longhorns pile up the points inside, they will not only earn a ton of trips to the line, but they’ll also draw a lot of fouls on the thin OSU frontcourt. Moses, Pilgrim, and Franklin are certainly talented, but if the Longhorns can saddle them with fouls, there won’t be much help coming from the bench for the Pokes.

Defensively, the Longhorns need to keep an eye on Keiton Page. While Moses and Olukemi are going to score a chunk of points tonight, Page is the one who is liable to go off for 20-plus at a moment’s notice. If the Longhorns can limit the damage from the junior guard, it’s unlikely that the rest of the Pokes are going to combine for enough to pull off the upset.

Finally, Texas will succeed if Hill or Wangmene step up. It seems that either Matt Hill or Alexis Wangmene has a good game every time the Horns take the court. Against KU, Hill put in a ton of key minutes on the defensive end, while against A&M, Wangmene had a great performance. Against a talented OSU frontcourt, Tristan Thompson and Gary Johnson are going to need some help, especially if they find themselves in foul trouble. If either Hill or Wangmene step up once again, the Horns should be just fine.

Things were different in Allen Fieldhouse on Saturday afternoon. There was no “Rock, Chalk, Jayhawk.” There was no waving of the wheat. There was simply stunned silence and a mass exodus that began with more than a minute left on the clock. The air was filled with a mix of confusion, dejection, and disgust. One of the things taken for granted in the Midwest, a certainty on par with the sun rising each day, was suddenly turned on its head. Kansas had finally lost at home.

There is a banner that greets all opponents when they arrive to Allen Fieldhouse. “Take heed, all who enter,” it warns. “Beware the Phog.” It’s a place worthy of the cautionary signage. Texas’ 74-63 win was the first by a visiting opponent in the last 70 games, and just the second in the last 90 games.

Beyond the historical implications, the win was huge for the Longhorns because it left them as the sole undefeated team in Big 12 play. One quarter of the way through the league schedule, Texas is one game ahead in the loss column of both Texas A&M and Kansas, both teams that the Longhorns now hold the head-to-head advantage over. The Aggies and Longhorns will meet again in College Station a week from Monday.

In terms of NCAA seeding, the win also gave the Longhorns their third big road victory, and fourth win over a team ranked 25th or better by statistician Ken Pomeroy. The Bracket Project’s Bracket Matrix shows that of the seven bracket projections which have been updated since the win, four have the Longhorns moving onto the 2-seed line.

Inside the numbers

The initial moments of the game were soul-crushing for even the most optimistic of Longhorn fans. Kansas took a dominating lead early behind the hot shooting of three-point gunner Tyrel Reed, while the Longhorns couldn’t even sink a basket for more than three minutes. By the first media timeout, the Jayhawks were up 12-2, and even added a free throw coming out of the break.

But after the initial turbulence, the Longhorns settled in and imposed their will on the Jayhawks. The stout Texas defense deterred the Kansas guards from even attempting dribble penetration, and they settled for a simple high-low game with no wrinkles. Bring the ball down the court, dump it in to the post, hope that Robinson or a Morris twin could score. Rinse. Repeat.

Fortunately for Texas, Matt Hill had the best zero-point performance in Texas history. He grabbed four defensive rebounds and used every one of his five fouls, forcing the Kansas bigs to earn their points at the line. As it is for Texas, the charity stripe is more like a demented carnival funhouse for Kansas, and the Brothers Morrii combined to sink just 9 of 16 from the line.

The most telling statistic came in the form of efficiency numbers. Heading into the game, the Jayhawks were scoring an adjusted 1.182 points per possession. They were coming off of an absolute drubbing of Baylor, a road win in which they put on an offensive clinic and scored an insane 1.337 points each time down the floor. Against the Longhorns, the Jayhawks managed just 0.879 points per trip, a loss of more than 25% of their typical offensive production.

The story was the exact same on the other side of the basketball. Kansas was limiting opponents to just 0.829 points per possession heading into yesterday afternoon’s game. For the first five minutes, it looked like the Longhorns would suffer the same fate. As the Jayhawks built an early fifteen point lead, Texas managed just three points in ten possessions, due in large part to three turnovers and an inability to rebound their misses.

That would be the end of Kansas’ dominance, however. Texas stayed within arm’s reach of the Jayhawks until halftime, and then dropped 51 second-half points on the home team, the most Kansas has allowed in a half since February 9th, 2008. Despite the inauspicious start, the Longhorns finished the game with 1.033 points per possession, nearly 25% more than what the Jayhawks had allowed their previous opponents. On both sides of the ball, the Longhorns dictated the flow of the game.

Grading the players

Following a win like this, it’s tough to hand out anything but positive marks to the entire team. Even Gary Johnson, who had one of the toughest shooting games of his career, managed to fight through the adversity and hit a pair of clutch baskets. While Gary allowed the Morrii to grab a few key rebounds down the stretch, his jumper from the corner iced the game with 1:05 to play, and it came after he had started the game just 1-of-7.

Feeding Gary on that jumper was Jordan Hamilton, who had the quietest 17-point performance in recent memory. He earned seven of his points at the line, but perhaps made the biggest impact by leading the team with nine rebounds. Following a technical foul called on him for taunting, Hamilton sat on the bench for nearly six minutes in the second half. It says a lot for this Texas team that with their star on the bench, they were still able to turn a seven-point deficit into a four-point lead.

Without Hamilton, the Horns were powered by J’Covan Brown and Tristan Thompson. Brown scored 11 of Texas’ 16 points in that stretch, and finished with 23 points for the game. Thompson had three points and two rebounds with Hamilton on the bench, and posted 12 and six for the game. Against the Kansas frontcourt, that’s a big accomplishment in its own right. What was an even bigger accomplishment for the freshman was his 6-of-8 performance at the free-throw line, a place where he had made just 49.2% of his attempts heading into the game.

Cory Joseph also played well after some initial jitters and an airball that drew a chant from the oversized Kansas student section. He finished with eleven points and made two three-pointers, including one that banked in off the glass as the shot clock expired. Just two weeks after Kemba Walker hit a miracle shot to beat the shot clock in Austin, it was as if the basketball gods just wanted to even things out for the Longhorns.

With Brown and Joseph playing well, that left Dogus Balbay on the bench for much of the team’s furious rally. In conference play, Dogus is averaging just 15.5 minutes, while Brown has seen his playing time increase to more than 24 minutes per game. This new approach seems to give Texas the perfect two-headed guard, as Balbay provides excellent defense — he helped hold KU star Josh Selby to just four points — while Brown brings in the offensive spark from the bench. If these two continue to play at this level down the stretch, the Horns will be tough to beat.

Next up: at Oklahoma State (14-5 overall, 2-3 Big 12); 6:30 P.M. CT, Wednesday

It would be a bit of an understatement to say that Allen Fieldhouse is a tough place for road teams to win. Just ask the last 69 teams that have come into the historic building, all of which left with a loss. The home-court advantage is so strong in Lawrence, in fact, that the second-longest active home winning streak in the country isn’t even half as long as the one the Jayhawks enjoy. The Duke Blue Devils — a dominant home team in their own right — have just a measly 30 consecutive wins at Cameron Indoor Arena.

It could go without saying, then, that the Longhorns enter today’s big game as underdogs. Texas is 0-9 all-time in Lawrence, a streak that dates back to 1941. Break that curse, however, and the Longhorns will be sitting atop the league standings as the lone undefeated squad left in the Big 12.

The odds are long, but there is certainly a chance it could happen. Kansas has played a handful of close games this season, including three home contests that came down to the final minute. None of the visitors could overcome the Phog in the end, but UCLA, USC, and Nebraska all made valiant efforts. For such a talented, athletic team, the Jayhawks have seemed, at times, to have chinks in the armor.

By the numbers

The Jayhawks are so difficult to beat namely because they are incredibly efficient on both ends of the court. Their offense scores at a clip of 1.182 points per possession, which adds up quickly at Kansas’ brisk pace of 71.4 possessions per game.

Bill Self’s team is highly efficient with the basketball because they refuse to take bad shots. They are constantly pushing the ball in transition, resulting in a ton of easy fast break buckets or good looks on the secondary break. When the open shot isn’t there, the Jayhawks are disciplined enough to pull the ball out and set up the offense.

In the half-court, they move the basketball well, and are patient enough to wait for the right shot. That commitment to passing and good shot selction shows in the mountains of assists the Jayhawks pile up night after night. They have assists on more than 60% of their buckets, a number that ranks the team 34th in the country. If you could remove the team’s numerous fast-break layups that don’t require any passes, that percentage would climb even higher.

In terms of adjusted tempo-free numbers, Kansas has the best defense in the country. They allow opponents to score just 0.829 points per possession, a number built upon the stingiest perimeter defense in the nation. Kansas opponents are shooting just 25.6% from behind the arc.

The Jayhawks are also doing a great job forcing turnovers, causing miscues on 23.5% of opponents’ possessions. This will be an interesting stat to track this afternoon, as the Longhorns are one of the most disciplined teams in the country when it comes to controlling the basketball. Texas is coughing it up on just 17.1% of their possessions, good enough for 19th-best in the land.

The starting five

Kansas is led by their twin brothers from Philadelphia, Marcus and Markieff Morris. Marcus is the leading scorer for the Jayhawks, putting in more than 17 points per night. As Luke Winn wrote in this week’s Power Rankings, Marcus is also the nation’s most efficient scorer in post-up situations. What makes things even more difficult for Jayhawk opponents is that the big man can also step out and knock down jumpers from just about anywhere on the floor.

Markieff, meanwhile, is much more of a low-post player. He’s certainly capable of scoring from outside — he’s shooting 33.3% from behind the arc — but he’s most useful to the Jayhawks when he’s positioned down low, cleaning up the glass. Markieff is averaging 8.7 boards per game, and his rebounding percentages are dominant on both ends of the court. On the offensive glass, he swipes 12.9% of the opportunities, good for 133rd in the nation. Defensively, he keeps opponents from getting second chances by grabbing 27.2% of the team’s rebounding opportunities. That impressive percentage is actually 14th-best in all of D-I basketball.

In addition to the Brothers Morris, the most well-known name on the Jayhawk roster is freshman superstar Josh Selby. After sitting out the first nine games of the year as a result of accepting impermissible benefits, Selby made an immediate impact in his debut game, sinking the game-winning three against USC on December 18th.

Since then, Selby has established himself as the team’s primary backcourt scoring threat, putting in more than 12 points a game. He’s absolutely deadly from long range, where he’s hit more than 42% of his attempts, and he simply knows how to create looks for himeself and his teammates. While he’s turned it over more times than he’s logged an assist so far this season, Selby’s ability to create with the basketball fits perfectly into KU’s crisp passing attack.

Joining Selby in the backcourt are senior Tyrel Reed and junior Tyshawn Taylor. While Reed is a spot-up shooter who has made 37.4% of his threes so far, Taylor is a slashing threat that can get to the rim in a moment’s notice. While Taylor is probably known more for his off-court incidents with Facebook and the school’s football team, his skills on the court are nothing to be ignored. His quick moves with the ball force defenses to help and rotate, and it leads to a ton of assists to wide-open teammates. Taylor’s length also makes him an excellent defender on the perimeter.

Off the bench

With Kansas running up and down the floor, the Jayhawks have to utilize a bench that is ten or eleven men deep on any given night. Fortunately for Coach Self, the first five guys on the Kansas bench could probably comprise a starting five at many other schools. As Luke Winn illustrated in his January 13th Power Rankings, the Jayhawk bench actually posts Player Efficiency Ratings that are higher than some of the team’s starters.

Thomas Robinson is the big man of the future for Kansas, but he’s already doing a heck of a job as a sophomore. In just 15 minutes per game, he’s grabbing more than six boards. If he played enough minutes, Robinson’s 20.6% offensive rebounding percentage would actually be third in the nation.

While Coach Self has compared Robinson to Dennis Rodman thanks to his uncanny knack to grab boards, he’s also a high-motor guy who runs the floor well in transition and provides an imposing defensive presence inside. On a team that doesn’t block shots like the Cole Aldrich-led squads, Robinson’s 7% block rate is a huge boost.

Since arriving in Lawrence, juco transfer Mario Little has had a more convoluted storyline than a telenovela character. In his first season with Kansas, he missed much of the year with an injury, but chose to forgo a medical redshirt and rejoined the team in conference play. Last year, he did burn the redshirt thanks to Xavier Henry’s stranglehold on playing time, but then missed significant time this season after a December arrest for battery, criminal damage, and trespassing.

When Little is actually on the court, however, he provides a great mismatch for Coach Self and the Jayhawks. He can be used as an oversized guard or an undersized forward, and he excels in both roles. He can knock down the long-range and mid-range jumpers, and can scrap inside for points and boards against much bigger players.

Travis Releford is another tough match-up coming off the bench for the Jayhawks. At 6’5″, he’s taller than most guards, and it’s allowed him to can 46% of his threes so far this season. As pointed out in Winn’s column, Releford is incredibly efficient when he is on the court, and his 124.3 offensive rating puts him among the top 90 players in the country.

Also in the backcourt, senior Brady Morningstar will provide key minutes from the bench. He’s a lockdown defender who also provides a steady hand on the offensive end.

Sophomore Elijah Johnson is another guard option for Coach Self, and he’s even more reliable with the ball than Morningstar. Johnson, who was a five-star point guard prospect out of Las Vegas, has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.75-to-1.

Seven-footer Jeff Withey could also see a little action in this one, but is averaging just 7.5 minutes and 2.8 boards per game so far this season.

Keys to the game

The number one thing Texas must do this afternoon is stop the basketball. Kansas is always looking up the court after they force opponents into missed shots, so the Longhorns can’t let the Jayhawks rack up easy points on fast breaks and secondary breaks. It’s no secret that Texas has had some defensive lapses this season where no one stops the ball, and it resulted in far too many easy buckets. That simply cannot happen if the team has designs on a huge road upset this afternoon.

Texas also will need to dictate the tempo in this one. While the Longhorns have looked good when they are pushing the basketball, they don’t have the horses to compete in a sprinting match with Kansas. The Jayhawks run nine or ten deep on any given night, and the talent coming off their bench is significantly better than the reserves on Texas’ bench.

It’s also worth nothing that stat guru Ken Pomeroy has calculated a correlation coefficient of -0.33 between tempo and Texas’ offensive efficiency. To put that in layman’s terms, it means that while the direct link between tempo and offensive efficiency isn’t incredibly strong, it does indicate that the Longhorns benefit slightly from slowing the game down. Combined with the depth issues we just touched upon, these numbers indicate that the Horns need to control the pace this afternoon.

Thanks to those depth issues, the Texas frontcourt must avoid foul trouble. While Alexis Wangmene had a quality game against A&M on Wednesday night, the Longhorns are going to need some serious minutes from Gary Johnson and Tristan Thompson this afternoon. If they pick up cheap ones early and force Wangmene or Matt Hill to have to defend the Morris twins for an extended period of time, things will likely not end well for Texas.

Finally, the Longhorn defense must stay home. The quick Kansas ball movement means that any overpursuit or unnecessary gambles will immediately result in open looks. The Jayhawks are very fond of a high-low game that sets up the Morris brothers on the blocks, but if Texas tries to front those passes, it opens up the easy lob. Try to jump passing lanes on the perimeter, and the Jayhawks will nail a wide-open three. If Texas plays sound, vanilla defense, they can limit the number of easy looks Kansas will find this afternoon.

They say there’s no sure thing in sports. But when it comes to the basketball rivalry between Texas and Texas A&M, home-court advantage has been as close to a lock as you can find. The Longhorns have won the last eight meetings played at the Frank Erwin Center, while the Aggies have claimed six straight victories at the friendly confines of Reed Arena.

For the Longhorns, defending that home-court advantage tonight is a must. As deep as the Big 12 Conference is this year, each team will likely pick up a handful of losses on the road. Winning the games at home is the best way for any Big 12 team to keep itself in contention for the four first-round byes in the conference tournament. And for a Longhorn team that heads to Lawrence on Saturday, a win tonight would also make this weekend’s showdown a battle for first place in the league.

By the numbers

As always, the Aggies are a well-disciplined team with a stingy defense that loves to slow it down into a half-court affair. Texas A&M averages just 65.4 possessions per game, a tempo that’s more than three possessions per game slower than Texas. That may not seem like a large number, but in the world of tempo-free stats, it’s a wide chasm.

Texas A&M plays a nearly impenetrable pack-in style of defense. The Aggies slide and help quickly, cutting off dribble penetration time and again. They are allowing just 0.889 points per possession, a miserly number that makes them the 24th-best defense in the country. Of course, the Longhorns are fifth-best in the country with just 0.841 points given up per possession, so we could be in for a very low-scoring affair tonight.

On offense, the Aggies are a patient bunch who take good shots and don’t force the issue. They have the 33rd-most efficient offense in the country, putting in 1.13 points each trip down the court. The biggest contributor to the offensive success is a dominating offensive rebound percentage of 41.1, the fifth-best in the nation. When the Aggies are actually forced into a bad shot, they often get it back and make the possession count. Fans have seen the Longhorns struggle with defensive rebounding as of late, so this could be a huge problem for Texas tonight.

That rebounding prowess extends to the defensive side of the ball, as well, where the Aggies are the 11th-best team in the country. They claim nearly 75% of their opponents’ misses, limiting teams to a ton of one-and-done possessions. While the Longhorns are a fairly good rebounding bunch, the numbers the Aggies have posted so far are simply dominant. If Texas A&M owns a wide rebounding margin tonight, it could make things tough for the Horns. Keep the rebounding battle close, though, and it should be an equally-close ballgame.

Finally, it should be noted that the Aggies are masters at getting to the line. They have a free-throw rate of 48.9% so far this season. In layman’s terms, that means that Texas A&M earns a pair of free throws for every two shots that they take. The Longhorns have a thin frontcourt, and the drop-off in talent from Tristan Thompson and Gary Johnson to Matt Hill and Alexis Wangmene is a big one. The Texas bigs have to avoid picking up fouls early, or Coach Rick Barnes may have to cobble together a hodgepodge lineup.

Meet the Aggies

Texas A&M is led by sophomore star Khris Middleton. He’s a long, athletic wingman that is averaging nearly 16 points per game, and he’s going to provide a tough matchup for Texas tonight. Middleton can score from anywhere on the floor, and at 6’7″, he can easily put it up over shorter guards.

Texas’ best defender is Dogus Balbay, a 6’1″ guy who definitely can be described as a shorter guard. But if the Longhorns try to use the taller Jordan Hamilton to shut down Middleton, he can easily attack off the dribble and finish at the rim. If Texas is married to a man-to-man defense tonight, the best plan of attack is probably to use Hamilton and provide solid help defense when Middleton inevitably beats him off the dribble.

It should also be noted that Middleton has great hands on defense, and he earns a ton of points with steals and the resulting open-floor layups. Texas can’t afford to give the high-scoring Middleton even more points by being lazy with the basketball.

At the point, the Aggies rely on Dash Harris, a junior guard from L.A. who is truly a facilitator. Harris is a pretty poor jump shooter, and his 27.8% field goal mark is a testament to that fact. If you let him attack the lane, he can certainly finish at the rim, but he prefers to make defenses react when he penetrates, leaving his teammates open for good looks. Harris is averaging nearly four assists a game, so Texas should work to keep him in front of them on D and make him beat them with his weak jumper.

Joining Harris in the backcourt is, B.J. Holmes, one of the team’s two senior leaders. He’s very quick with the ball, but thanks to his 5’11” frame, prefers to do his scoring from outside. At 40% behind the arc, Holmes is the team’s best three-point shooter, and Longhorn fans are well-aware of that fact. In the the last two meetings between the Horns and Aggies at Reed Arena, Holmes was 5-of-5 from long range. Fortunately for Texas fans, he was just 1-for-8 at the Erwin Center over the same two-year stretch.

The team’s other senior leader is big man Nathan Walkup. Four years ago, he was known as a three-point marksman, but now is a hard-nosed scrapper who leads the team in rebounds. Walkup can still knock it down from long range, where he’s made 38.6% of his shots this year, but he earns most of his points by tracking down rebounds and going up strong. To trot out a few clichés, he simply has a nose for the basketball and does the little things to help his team win.

Rounding out the starting five for Coach Mark Turgeon is Miami product David Loubeau. At 6’8″, he’s a quality rebounder, but he’s much more than the prototypical forward. Loubeau can knock down jumpers with ease, and he prefers to face up his man, rather than posting up on the blocks. There have been games where the Longhorns’ Thompson has been abused by athletic forwards, so it will be interesting to see how the Texas defense handles Loubeau tonight.

Off the bench, the Aggies are getting a ton of production out of sophomore wing man Naji Hibbert. He’s averaging just 20 minutes a game, yet still puts in seven points a night and grabs a few boards. He’s another quality three-point shooter, but he can take it inside if defenses play up in his shirt on the perimeter.

Big man Kourtney Roberson is already playing well as a freshman, and with the career had at A&M by his big brother, Bernard King, we can expect even more from him in the future. He’s an incredible rebounder, grabbing more than four boards per game despite seeing the court for just 12 minutes a night. In the tempo-free world, he’s actually the best defensive rebounder on the Aggies, save for Keith Davis, who has only appeared in 13 games. Roberson probably won’t play a lot tonight, but he’ll definitely have an impact when he’s on the floor.

Another option in the frontcourt is Ray Turner, a 6’8″ sophomore who moves really well for a guy his size. He’s a natural shot blocker, having racked up 13 swats so far this year in just 15 minutes per game. That equates to a 6.3% block percentage, which would put Turner just outside the top 100 nationally if had he played enough minutes to qualify.

Fans will also see Andrew Darko for a few minutes tonight. The senior was a longtime walk-on before earning a scholarship this season, but he doesn’t make a huge dent in the stat sheet. Darko prefers to take jump shots, and is in fact so averse to attacking the paint that he has yet to take a free throw in seventeen games.

Keys to the game

Without a doubt, the biggest thing Texas must do tonight is control the defensive glass. The Aggies are going to get offensive rebounds, but the Longhorns can’t allow them to dominate like Connecticut did. The poor defensive rebounding performance cost Texas a win against the Huskies, and if they allow A&M to extend possessions with offensive boards, it could likely cost them another win tonight.

In addition, Texas must avoid foul trouble in the frontcourt. We’ve already touched on this, but the Aggies know how to get to the line. Middleton and Loubeau combine to draw more than 11 fouls per forty minutes, so Thompson, Hamilton, and Johnson will have to avoid being the recipients of those whistles. If Hill and Wangmene are having to play significant minutes against the Aggies, Texas will have a very hard time winning.

Finally, the Longhorns will have success if Gary Johnson knocks down the jumpers. Prior to the Oklahoma game, GJ had taken 42.5% of his shots from the “danger zone,” located from 17 feet out to the three-point line. Since it’s the longest shot in basketball that isn’t worth three points, it’s considered the least-efficient place to shoot on the court. But despite that, Johnson has found a way to make the shot profitable for the Longhorns. Prior to the Sooner contest, he was averaging 1.2 points per shot in the “danger zone,” an absolutely incredible number.

What does that have to do with the price of tea in China? When Gary is knocking down that long jumper, it forces an Aggie big to defend him further from the glass. You might make the argument that GJ is one of the Longhorns’ best rebounders, and that shot also takes him away from a rebounding opportunity. But the stats show that Gary’s biggest contribution is as a defensive rebounder, so having him pull Aggie big men away from the paint is a net gain for Texas. And when you also consider how often Johnson knocks down that long-range shot, it can easily help Texas pile up the points.

No time for a full-fledged game preview this afternoon — especially with the intriguing Texas A&M/Missouri tilt on TV at the same time — so here’s your quick and dirty look at a struggling Oklahoma Sooner squad.

(Sorry, kiddos. This time it isn’t a picture book.)

By the numbers

The Sooners are having a hard time scoring, but it’s not because they aren’t shooting the basketball well. Their effective field goal percentage, which gives extra weight to three-pointers, is a solid 53.5%, good enough for a top-forty national mark. Unfortunately, it’s the other three-quarters of Dean Oliver’s “four factors” that Oklahoma struggles with.

The Sooners cough it up on 22.8% of their possessions, a mark so bad that it puts the team 276th nationally out of 345 Division I teams. When they manage to hang on to the basketball and happen to miss a shot, the Sooners are only reclaiming the ball 29.4% of the time. That percentage is good for 269th in the country. And as far as manufacturing their points? The Sooners have the 292nd-highest free-throw rate in the country, meaning that they simply don’t know how to get to the line.

Defensively, their effective field goal percentage is an ugly 51.1%. That number is inflated by the fact that their three-point defense is simply atrocious. Opponents are hitting 37.2% of their long-range attempts so far this year, a mark that is 272nd in the country. With the way that Jordan Hamilton, J’Covan Brown, and Cory Joseph have been knocking down threes in the last month, that could be very, very bad news for Oklahoma.

Meet the Sooners

While Tuesday night’s “meet the opponent” section was full of familiar faces on the Texas Tech roster, Jeff Capel and the Sooners are victims of roster overhaul. With nine new players on the team, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Sooners were still wearing nametags at practice.

Cade Davis is the team’s lone senior leader, and his 9.9 points per game in 2009-10 was tops for returning Sooners. Long known as simply a three-point marksman, Davis has added a wrinkle to his game by learning to attack off the dribble. He’s hitting 39.6% of his threes so far this year, but now can blow by defenders who decide to play him too tightly.

Leading the team in scoring is sophomore Andrew Fitzgerald, who showed flashes of brilliance last season, but spent much of the year in the shadows of Tiny Gallon. This year, Fitzgerald has started every game and is averaging 13.5 points per night. He’s occassionaly had difficulty making point-blank looks inside, but the Sooners feed him the ball often enough that he still scores in bunches.

The only other Sooner to start every game is freshman Cameron Clark, a really athletic wingman who crashes the glass hard and can score from just about anywhere. He’s chipping in 9.3 points per game this year, but has come on strong in recent weeks. In his last four games, Clark is averaging a lofty 15.8 points.

Sophomore transfer Carl Blair is the team’s only true point guard, so he’s being called on to eat up a lot of minutes this year. Although it took him awhile to crack the starting rotation, this University of New Orleans transfer played 38 minutes in each of the first two Big 12 games. If the Longhorns can manage to get Blair into foul trouble, there’s really no other solid ballhandlers to take over at the point for Coach Capel.

Joining Blair in the backcourt is Steven Pledger, a three-point bomber who has knocked down 38.6% of his attempts so far this year. He’s 6-for-11 from long range in conference play, including an eye-popping 5-for-10 performance at Baylor on Tuesday night. The Sooners are fairly overmatched in this game, but if Pledger gets hot from behind the arc, things could get dicey for the Horns.

The only other Sooners who see consistent minutes are newcomers Nick Thompson and Calvin Newell. Thompson is a tough match-up, because although he’s a 6’9″ guy who is being used inside, he’s also a heck of an interior passer and can step out to knock down a three. To capitalize on that three-point threat, the Sooners love to run Thompson out high for ball screens, taking a big defender out of the paint while leaving Thompson available for the pick-and-pop.

Newell, meanwhile, checks in about eight inches shorter. He’s a really shifty guard with a lightning-quick first step, but he prefers to facilitate the offense once he blows by the defense and drives the lane. He certainly has a sweet shot, but prefers to use it off the pass.

Keys to the game

As previously mentioned, this should be a one-sided affair. Vegas has pegged the Longhorns as 19.5-point favorites, while stat guru Ken Pomeroy gives the Sooners just a 3% chance to win on the road this afternoon.

To get the dominating win all Texas fans are expecting, though, the Longhorns need to chase shooters off the perimeter, forcing the offense to go through Fitzgerald. Yes, he’s leading the team in scoring, but he also has the tendency to miss shots he shouldn’t. Against a much-stronger rebounding team like the Longhorns, that should lead to a lot of one-and-done possessions.

Of course, that doesn’t work well unless the Longhorns dominate the glass. Oklahoma is barely posting a positive rebounding margin per game, while the Longhorns have looked very strong on the glass so far. Repeat the dominating rebounding performance from Tuesday night, and Texas should cruise to another early conference victory.

Finally, the Texas offense can’t become stagnant. Oklahoma is using a matchup-zone this season, courtesy of assistant coach Bryan Goodman, who brought the look from his time on the Bucknell bench. The Longhorns have shown the tendency to stall out against zones, and simply can’t afford to do that against a less-talented Oklahoma team. The Longhorns can also avoid this problem by pushing in transition and beating the defense down the floor, especially off of the frequent Sooner turnovers.