Just one month ago, fans of Texas and Kansas were eagerly looking forward to tonight’s match-up. Their teams were undefeated and ranked in the top two slots nationally. The winner of the sole match-up between the two schools would likely have the inside track to a Big 12 title and a 1-seed in the NCAA tournament. Everything seemed to be aligning for an epic showdown.

Things certainly haven’t gone according to plan. First, Kansas stumbled with a road loss against a horribly depleted Tennessee team, propelling the Longhorns to their first-ever No. 1 ranking in school history. Texas was only able to hold on to that spot for one week before hitting a horrendous skid where they lost four out of six games.

After all those speedbumps, February 8th is finally here. But the day that was once circled on so many calendars is now just another Monday in conference play. The game has lost most of its luster, with Texas sliding down the polls and the bracket projections. The Jayhawks hold a commanding 2.5-game lead in the conference standings, and will likely cruise to yet another Big 12 title.

But for Texas, this game is huge. It’s not big because of seeding or even important for the conference standings. The Longhorns desperately need a win tonight to restore some confidence. It’s been crystal clear on the faces of the Texas players for the last few weeks — this team is looking for answers, and they are getting desperate that they have been unable to find them. What better way to re-instill some swagger than a gut-check win over the nation’s top team?

By the numbers

Unfortunately for the Longhorns, that will not be an easy task. The Jayhawks come into the game with the 2nd-most efficient offense and 4th-most efficient defense in the country. Kansas is just one of two teams that has efficiency rankings in the top ten on both sides of the ball, with the other being Syracuse. That all-around dominance gives the Jayhawks a differential of +0.361 points per possession. That may seem like a small number, but when you multiply it out by 60 or 70 possessions per game, you quickly realize just how good Bill Self‘s team has been.

The main reason KU is so efficient on offense is that they are loaded with talent from top to bottom. They can score in a variety of ways, and from anywhere on the floor. If you take away their inside game, they kill you from long range. Sell out to stop the perimeter attack, and you’re decimated by the frontcourt. The Jayhawks are hitting 41% of their threes on the year, and nearly 50% from the field. It’s certainly a matter of picking your poison when trying to defend Kansas.

When Texas has the ball, they are going to have to deal with a defense that simply does not allow teams to score inside. For the Longhorns, that can mean all sorts of trouble. It’s no secret that Texas has been absolutely stymied when opponents force them to settle for long-range jumpers, so Rick Barnes will have to find a way for his team to attack the stingy interior defense. Unfortunately, the ‘Hawks are 12th in the nation when it comes to blocks, typically because big man Cole Aldrich is often waiting as a secondary defender to swat away any ill-conceived shots.

Meet the Jayhawks

Aldrich is not just a phenomenal shot blocker. He also is a beast on the boards, and is the perfect compliment down low for Kansas’ excellent outside shooting. Self often has Cole setting screens in the high post or on the perimeter, and his height makes it very easy for him to catch a pass on the pick-and-roll before flushing it home. The only real knock on Aldrich’s offensive game is that he has a bizarre shooting motion that makes it far too easy to defend him on pick-and-pop plays.

As we’ve already mentioned, Aldrich gets a ton of blocks when he rotates over on help defense. That leaves the Jayhawks susceptible to dribble penetration by guards who then dump it off to open players on the blocks. Last year in Lawrence, Texas rode this strategy to an early lead. If the Longhorns can actually capitalize on the easy one- and two-foot looks they have been missing in the last few weeks, that type of attack should keep them in the game tonight.

The other big-time star joining Aldrich in the starting five is All-American senior Sherron Collins. He’s an incredibly quick guard with really long range, so teams have to decide whether they prefer to give up the blow-by when they crowd him, or give him looks beyond the arc when they sag to prevent the drive. He’s the team’s leading scorer with more than 15 points per game, but he also is a good distributor, logging more than four assists each night. Quite a few of those assists come when he drives the lane and kicks it out past the collapsing D, resulting in a wide-open three from one of Kansas’ many long-range gunners.

Collins is also very strong for a guy his size, so he’s able to finish through contact at the rim. Texas really can’t afford to have their frontcourt in foul trouble tonight, so if they do have to burn some fouls when Collins is driving, they have to make sure he doesn’t finish for an and-one.

Brady Morningstar has once again cracked the starting lineup after missing the first month of the season due to a DUI arrest in October. He’s a lockdown defender that will give the Longhorn guards a headache all night. As if his defense wasn’t enough, Morningstar is a capable ballhandler that can allow Collins to work himself open off the ball, and he’s also a heck of a three-point shooter. He’s making nearly 45% of his attempts from long range, and will surely make some daggers against the Longhorns tonight.

Joining Collins and Morningstar in the backcourt is freshman phenom Xavier Henry. At 6’6″, Henry is anything but just a guard, and he will make plays all over the court tonight. He’s left-handed, which always seems to make players harder to defend, and he can shoot from anywhere. Give him space, and he’ll calmly knock down a three. Cut off his driving lane, and he’ll pull up to kiss it off the glass. Give him an uninterrupted path to the basket, and he’ll throw down a dunk that will show up on Sportscenter’s Top Ten after the game.

In addition, Henry’s tall frame allows him to get many more rebounds than your typical guard. And against a Texas team that often runs three-guard looks and sometimes uses Gary Johnson in the power forward role, Henry is likely going to have a good night on the glass. He’s averaging four boards a game from the swingman role, and there’s a very good chance he’ll exceed that tonight.

The only forward in the starting lineup for KU is Marcus Morris, one half of the twin duo from Philadelphia. Like brother Markieff Morris, Marcus added about twenty pounds in the offseason and his inside game has improved as a result. He’s finishing more baskets inside and is pulling down 6.3 boards per game, second only to Aldrich. He’s always had three-point range — although it’s been overshadowed on a team with shooters like Collins and Morningstar — but Marcus has also developed his midrange game this year. Now he has a nice baseline jumper to compliment his skill set, and it’s typically good out to fourteen feet.

Brother Markieff is coming off the bench for about fifteen minutes per game, but isn’t quite as polished as Marcus. He still has a tendency to pick up dumb, frustration fouls that limit his minutes, and his offensive skill set isn’t as refined as his brother’s. Markieff is averaging six points and five boards per game, so he should still make an impact in his time on the court tonight.

Guard Tyshawn Taylor has been relegated to the bench since Morningstar’s return to the starting lineup, and at one point he was apparently so frustrated that he voiced a desire to transfer on his Facebook. The post was immediately removed and Self was testy with reporters who brought it up, but questions still linger about the chemistry in the locker room between the guards.

When Taylor is on the floor, he’s a very quick guard who can speed past defenders off the dribble. The key is to give him enough space that he’s forced to beat you with a jump shot. Like Collins, Taylor is a combo guard who earns his fair share of assists (3.3 in 22 minutes per game), but is not as good of a jump shooter. He’s still serviceable in the midrange and behind the arc, but if the Longhorns can keep Taylor in front of them and put a little bit of pressure on him while shooting, it will certainly help their chances tonight.

Tyrel Reed is the only other Jayhawk who plays significant minutes, and he’s another guard that is deadly from long range. He’s making more than 44% of his three-point attempts this year, so Texas must always be aware of his location when he’s on the court.

Keys to the game

While the Kansas half-court offense is highly efficient and can beat you in a variety of ways, the Jayhawks also earn a lot of points in transition. They don’t force a ton of turnovers — Pomeroy has them ranked just 157th in that category — but they do push the tempo off of rebounds and made buckets. Texas must limit fast break points, and has to set up their defense quickly enough to limit the secondary break points as well.

In addition, the Longhorns have to break through the interior D. The Jayhawks are nearly impenetrable inside, and Texas is not the most reliable outside shooting team. If the Horns can attack like the rim like they were in the second half of the OU game, perhaps they can create foul trouble for Aldrich and the Morris twins. And of course, we all know that consistent inside play will open up the midrange and outside games, as well.

Finally, the most simple of our keys to the game is that Texas must execute. During this tough three-week stretch, the Longhorns have been plagued by simple errors, be it missed shots from point-blank range, stupid turnovers, or poor shot selection and possessions. I’ve purposely left free-throw shooting off this list, because it’s perfectly clear that this will not get better any time soon.

Obviously, if the Longhorns shoot 37% from the line again, as they did on Saturday, they have absolutely no chance to win tonight. But if they hover around their season average of 61% and actually do the other things correctly, they should be within striking distance during the final minutes of the game. And for a team that has struggled as much as Texas has lately, that’s pretty much all you can ask for.

While Kansas is a very scary team that plays well on both sides of the ball, they are certainly beatable. They were taken to overtime in road games against Kansas State and Colorado, and even let Nebraska — the worst team in the league — hang around with them at Allen Fieldhouse. The Frank Erwin Center is rarely a home-court advantage, but when Kansas comes to town, it always is. The Longhorns haven’t played very well as of late, but they have the talent needed to win this game and perhaps enough desperation to play like they cannot lose.

The Longhorns will be hitting the floor in new uniforms and new sneakers from Nike for tonight’s game with Kansas. The new unis are “dramatically lighter” according to a Nike PR rep, while they feature “unique call-outs to the Longhorn logo, campus landmarks and the school motto.” It also appears that wearing the jersey leads to Zoolander-esque facial expressions.

After Saturday’s loss to OU, the Longhorns dropped to 14th in both major polls. The Jayhawks maintained their comfortable hold on the No. 1 ranking heading into tonight’s game, while Kansas State moved up to 9th in both polls. Baylor is 25th in the Associated Press rankings, but fell into the “Others Receiving Votes” category in the Coaches Poll. A&M, meanwhile, is on the cusp of both polls, with only Saturday’s road game at Tech standing between them and a ranking next Monday.

Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology slots Texas as a 3-seed in the Salt Lake City regional, where Villanova is projected as the 1-seed. Lunardi has the Horns in New Orleans, with a potential second-round match-up against Georgia Tech and freshman phenom Derrick Favors. Interestingly enough, in this hypothetical bracket, a potential rematch with Michigan State could await Texas in the Sweet 16.

Ten out of twenty-seven. That’s 37%, or the embarrassing performance the Texas Longhorns turned in at the free-throw line on Saturday afternoon. Damion James did his part in scuttling the team’s percentage, making just four out of thirteen attempts from the stripe. Meanwhile, the Sooners made 20-of-28. Look at those numbers for just a second. James missed more free throws than the entire Oklahoma team, and they took fifteen more shots from the line!

It wasn’t just free-throw woes that cost the team. The Longhorns wasted possessions with stupid shot selection, and had a ton of missed opportunities at the rim. Dogus Balbay twice made nice moves to get to the basket, but instead of providing his typical two or four points, he missed the easiest shot in the sport. Jordan Hamilton‘s Edward Hyde showed up just one game after he had performed as Henry Jekyll, resulting in selfish possessions that ended with bad decisions and forced shots.

The only bright spots in the game for Texas were Dexter Pittman and Avery Bradley. While Bradley took some poor shots of his own early in the game, he settled down and provided a fantastic 21-point performance, including 3-of-4 shooting from behind the arc. As Avery improved his offensive game, his defense tightened up as well. Oklahoma’s Tommy Mason-Griffin was no longer able to create the minuscule separation he needs to sink threes, and Bradley moved with exceptional quickness to shut down TMG’s drives down the stretch.

Pittman, meanwhile, played with fire in the paint. When Texas made a concerted effort to feed him in the post, he made good decisions with the ball and had the patience to take what the defense gave him. Unfortunately, Dexter spent half the game on the bench, and not due to foul trouble. While Coach Barnes was electing to use slashers like Hamilton, the lack of a true post player made it difficult for the Longhorns to capitalize once the defense collapsed on the driving wingman. As a result, Jordan didn’t have a wide-open outlet down low, and rather than kicking it out to reset, he often chunked up ugly, contested shots.

If you’re into moral victories, you could also say that the second-half comeback by Texas was something to hang your hat on. And to be fair, it truly is reassuring to see that the team didn’t fold at half and just mail it in for the final twenty minutes. But at the same time, that very comeback is what makes this loss so incredibly frustrating. After a first half where Ray Charles would have made a three if he were wearing a Sooner jersey, Texas fought back from an 18-point deficit and was down just six with ten minutes left. Oklahoma gave Texas every chance to erase the deficit and win the game, but the Longhorns simply ignored the opportunities. Whether it was the missed free throws, the empty possessions, or just stupid turnovers, Texas refused to capitalize.

Perhaps the only positive that can come from this game was the delicious cherry turnover I enjoyed at an Arby’s in Paul’s Valley, Oklahoma. Thanks to the 11 Texas turnovers in the game and an awesome marketing department at OU, my delicious treat was free.

Just a week ago, all fingers were hovering above the panic button. Texas had lost three of four games, tumbling from the nation’s top ranking all the way to the bottom rungs of the top ten. With a pair of road games looming, there was definite cause for concern. Even a split of the Oklahoma road trips would give the Longhorns four losses in six games and kill any hopes for a Big 12 title.

But Monday night, Texas stopped the bleeding. After falling behind early, the Horns were carried to a 12-point win by freshman Jordan Hamilton, who probably wouldn’t have missed a shot even if he were blindfolded. The victory kept Texas safely in the league’s second spot, and stymied talk of a season meltdown.

Unfortunately, the road swing is only half over. After a few days back in Austin, the Horns are making another trip across the border, this time to square off with the Oklahoma Sooners. Even fresh off a win, the concerns remain the same for Texas. A loss here, and the questions and criticisms will emerge once again.

By the numbers

While the Sooners are stumbling into conference play, they are feeling very fortunate to have this game on their home court. Oklahoma is just 3-4 in the Big 12, but have won all ten of their games played at the Lloyd-Noble Center this year.

The Sooners live and die by the three-pointer. They take more than 41% of their shots from behind the arc, the 23rd-highest percentage in the nation. And the all-out perimeter attack is not without reason — the Sooners make more than 35% of their attempts. That high success rate means OU is making more than eight triples a game, good for tops in the Big 12.

Unfortunately for the Sooners, their defense is atrocious. Oftentimes they seem to not even care about stopping their opponents, failing to get back in transition or to even rotate when help is needed. Oklahoma hardly ever forces turnovers, and their weak perimeter defense is allowing opponents to knock down 37% of their attempts from behind the arc.

The one thing OU does do right on the offensive side of the ball is that they rarely send their opponents to the line. Against Texas, that might actually be a negative, as many times one-and-one attempts for the Longhorns become invisible turnovers when they clang the front end off the rim.

It should also be noted that the Sooners are one of the best teams at the line, although they don’t get there all too often. Oklahoma has a team mark of 73.9% at the line, nearly twelve full percentage points better than the Longhorns. If this game ends up being decided by only a few points, this could be a huge factor in the outcome.

Meet the Sooners

Oklahoma’s top scorer is sophomore guard Willie Warren, a player that Texas fans remember all too well from last season’s epic battle at the Frank Erwin Center. Warren hit 6-of-12 behind the arc in the 73-68 Texas victory, scoring 27 points in the losing effort.

This year, Warren has faced his share of struggles. His three-point percentage has dipped all the way down to 28.4%, while an ankle injury has limited his playing time in conference games. Warren missed two consecutive games due to the injury, but returned on Saturday to score four points in a 17-point loss at Nebraska.

The heir apparent in the Oklahoma backcourt is freshman Tommy Mason-Griffin. Like Warren, TMG is a guard who is comfortable both scoring and dishing out assists. He is fourth in the Big 12 with 4.6 dimes per game, while his 12.7 points is second-most on the Sooner roster.

Mason-Griffin is very fast with the ball, and has a quick first step that allows him to blow by defenders and penetrate the lane for silky-smooth floaters or easy layups at the rim. At just 5’11”, TMG sometimes disappears among the trees in the lane, but he is very skilled at making acrobatic plays to finish.

The biggest threat from Mason-Griffin, though, comes behind the arc. He’s hitting 48.9% of his three-point attempts during Big 12 play, and 44.6% on the year. In fourteen of the team’s last 17 games, TMG has made at least two three-pointers.

The other freshman joining TMG in the starting lineup is 6’9″, 290-pound Tiny Gallon. Midway through his rookie campaign, Gallon is probably best known for shattering a backboard against Gonzaga on a botched alley-oop attempt.

What Gallon should be known for is his excellent skill set with the basketball down low. If Tiny catches the ball anywhere near the blocks and there isn’t a double team, you can typically count on the ball going in the basket. He has smooth spin moves, an excellent jump hook, and of course can make strong moves to the rack.

The big knock on Gallon is his conditioning, and it typically manifests itself in lazy defense and rebounding. When Tiny starts to wear down, opponents can exploit him for easy looks down low, and smaller defenders are able to snag hustle boards that he should corrall without a problem.

The steady senior leadership in the starting five comes from Tony Crocker, a long and lanky 6’6″ guard from San Antonio. He just barely cracks the top ten of the Big 12 rebounding charts with his 6.6 boards per game, and his long arms make him a great defender out on the perimeter. When the Sooners elect to run smaller, Crocker is able to fill in as the four, but he is most comfortable as the team’s small forward. The senior is also a very good three-point shooter, although his 38.8% success rate from behind the arc this season is deceptively low.

The most surprising player this season has been junior Cade Davis. In previous years, Davis was mostly a role player who could spot up and hit threes, as the Griffin brothers ate up most of the minutes inside. On the current Sooner roster, Davis plays a vital inside-out role despite checking in at just 6’5″. He’s an in-your-face defender that leads the team in steals, and he is one of the scrappiest rebounders you will find.

Davis is also peaking at just the right time, as he’s scored 12.6 points per contest over the last five games. He’s also made seven of his last 15 attempts from behind the arc, and has earned a bunch of extra playing time with his workmanlike efforts.

The Sooners run nine deep, utilizing a pair of reserves for both the frontcourt and backcourt. Guard Steven Pledger is an excellent three-point shooter who has been slumping horribly over the last few weeks. After making 47.5% of his threes in the first six games, Pledger’s mark has dropped all the way to 30.5%, including an awful 4-of-25 line in Big 12 play.

While Pledger earns about 19 minutes off the bench, swingman Ray Willis plays roughly twelve per game. He’s an incredibly lanky 6’6″, but needs to add quite a bit of muscle if he’s going to earn quality PT in future seasons. For now, Willis is a reliable jump-shooter who is good for a few points per night.

In the frontcourt, UCLA transfer Ryan Wright handles most of the back-up duties for Gallon. He’s a very strong forward who can fight through contact to finish at the rim, and he has a nose for pulling down boards in traffic.

Freshman forward Andrew Fitzgerald also earns about twelve minutes a game. He has a jump shot that is accurate nearly to the three-point line, so he can add a wrinkle to the gameplan when he draws opposing forwards out of the paint.

Keys to the game

First and foremost, the Longhorns must defend the perimeter. Texas is holding opponents to just 30% shooting behind the arc this year, but the Sooners are a squad that can easily skew those numbers. If OU is knocking down their threes, it’s definitely a recipe for an upset. If not, Texas should be able to muscle their way to a road win.

Since Oklahoma shoots so many three pointers, there are an awful lot of long caroms on missed shots. The Sooner guards are much taller than those of Texas, so this could lead to an abnormally high number of offensive rebounds for OU. If the Longhorns can grab the defensive rebounds, the lack of second chances will stifle the Sooner offense.

Finally, the Longhorn freshmen must play like seniors. This isn’t to say that Lloyd-Noble is going to be an incredibly intimidating place to play this afternoon. In fact, attendance numbers have been rather poor for OU this season.

What we do mean, though, is that as J’Covan Brown and Jordan Hamilton go, so go the Horns. When both have solid games like they did on Monday night, Texas seems unstoppable. When they make freshman mistakes — like Hamilton did against Baylor and Brown did against Kansas State — the Longhorns completely shut down. Intentionally left out of this discussion is Avery Bradley, a first-year player who has managed to avoid making freshman mistakes all year long.

The big finish

The Big 12 standings are quickly becoming stratified, with the top few teams stepping away from a bloated middle tier. But even within that top group of teams, Kansas is already pulling away from the competition. Heading into today’s action, the Jayhawks had a full two-game lead over Texas and a 2.5-game lead over Kansas State.

The Longhorns and Wildcats both have an opportunity to make up ground in head-to-head meetings with KU. But if Texas drops another conference game at this point, you can essentially give the trophy to the ‘Hawks. That means it’s absolute imperative for the Longhorns to overcome OU’s perfect 10-0 mark at the Lloyd-Noble Center and earn another road win before Monday’s super-sized showdown with KU.