I just rushed back here to “Camp Erwin” after my Spanish class, having been mulling over something for most of the 50 minutes. In my Oklahoma State preview this morning, I completely overlooked the one big difference between tonight’s game and the one played on January 16th — a 6-foot, 10-inch, 290-pound difference.

When the Pokes and Horns tangled last month, the only significant bench minutes in the frontcourt came from Connor Atchley, who had to step up with Damion James in foul trouble. Atchley played 22 of the 55 minutes, while Matt Hill came in for a three-minute stint in which he only recorded a block.

Between that game and tonight’s contest, Coach Barnes has made a commitment to playing Dexter Pittman more. It’s just one small way to try to make up for our small lineup and lack of a post presence. And while Big Dex has yet to play more than nine minutes in a conference game, he is active down low in the short times he is on the floor.

Tonight I’m expecting to see a good seven to ten minutes from the big man, spread out over short appearances like those given to him against ISU on Saturday. Hopefully the small time frames will still allow Dexter a chance to make a difference offensively, as it would be huge for him to pick up some fouls in the paint on Boggan and Monds. If the small chunks make it tough for him to get into the flow, we may end up getting no discernable benefit besides keeping some fouls off of James and Kevin Durant.

So here’s to a solid night from Dex. Eight minutes, five points, and five boards sound good? Works for me, too.

Tip: 8 PM, ESPN

Texas and Oklahoma State have already played almost two full games against each other this year, thanks to that epic three-overtime thriller in Stillwater last month. Tonight, they meet again in Austin under the national spotlight of Big Monday. And with the game on ESPN, you can bet your right testicle that the network will be hyping the shit out of this one. “Remember last time?!!! And what about Kevin Durant????? Did we mention there’s free cheese?!?!?”

In the first contest, it was a back-and-forth battle not only between the Longhorns and Cowboys, but also Durant and OSU’s Mario Boggan. KD finished with a 37-and-12 night, while Boggan matched the 37 points….and pulled down 20 rebounds. It was also Boggan who hit the game-winning three, despite being only a 14% shooter behind the arc at the time.

JamesOn Curry was the other star for the Cowboys last time out, giving a woozy Sean Sutton a 28 point performance. This time around, Curry is sporting a Coolio hairstyle and an 18.4 scoring average.

Texas enjoyed much of its success in the first game thanks to their ability to get defensive stopper Marcus Dove into foul trouble. Dove played only 21 minutes, leaving less-talented men to handle Durant. That…. didn’t work out so well. If Texas wants to enjoy a victory this time around, they must again remove Dove from the equation.

Senior David Monds has seen a sharp upswing in his minutes with the injury to big man Obi Muonelo. Kenny Cooper had been initially tabbed to start in place of Muonelo, but Monds’ strong play and senior leadership has ensured that the Cowboys aren’t missing a beat. With both Monds and Boggan on its plate, the Longhorn frontcourt is going to have to work hard on the glass and in the paint.

The Cowboys outrebounded the Horns by a 51-46 margin in their 55 minutes of competition, and enjoyed a 46-38 advantage on points from the paint. In particular, Texas was atrocious on the offensive glass, giving up 20 offensive boards and 20 second-chance points. Texas can afford to be outrebounded by a slim margin again, but not if they are getting absolutely killed by OSU’s offensive rebounders.

When I previewed the first matchup, I noted transition basketball as a key for the Horns. Against the bigger, more physical Cowboys, I still feel this is important for Texas. And when you consider that Oklahoma State is playing just two days after a tough, double-overtime victory over Texas Tech, running them ragged is a great idea.

The subplots of this game are everywhere, starting with Coach Rick Barnes’ attempt to become the winningest coach in Texas history. In addition, the Horns are putting a 10-2 home record in Big Monday games on the line and are hoping to take the edge in the all-time series with the Pokes, which is currently knotted at 34 victories apiece. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, is looking for their first conference road win in nine tries, a streak dating back to February 4th of last year.

This looks to be another great game, yet 1,700 tickets still remained as of 2 P.M. yesterday. If you’re in the Austin area, there’s absolutely no reason you shouldn’t be at this one. Besides, didn’t you listen to ESPN’s hype machine? Last time it went to triple overtime! And there’s Kevin Durant! And, of course, that free cheese.

With only 28 days to Selection Sunday, teams across the nation are jostling for position not only in their conference races, but also around the proverbial bubble. In the latest projections from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, the Big 12 conference is sitting pretty with six bids in the field of sixty-five. As we head into the final three weeks of conference play, here is a look at what’s to come.

Over at PhogBlog, they have the “REAL Standings,” one of my favorite features in the college basketball blogosphere. The idea behind the REAL standings is to group the league into “Contenders,” “Pretenders,” and “Have-Nots.” The beauty of the REAL standings is the fact that it takes into account the difficulty of winning on the road and is always accounting for the games left on the slate.

Each Contender is given a win for all home games on its schedule and any road games against the Have-Nots. Then they are given “half-wins” for each of their road games against the Pretenders. What results is a look at how the league should finish if everyone wins the games they are supposed to. It’s a really brilliant idea and something I advise all Big 12 hoops fans to check out when it’s updated twice each week.

The REAL standings have Texas finishing fourth in the conference with an 11-5 mark. As Contenders, they are expected to beat the Aggies at home, and win one of the two road games against Pretenders OU and Baylor. Oklahoma State is nearly two games back, checking in at a projected 9.5-6.5 — their odd number of road games against Pretenders results in a half-win total.

That would seem to indicate that the Horns have a first-round bye all but locked up. But as Longhorn fans know, however, this team rarely makes the “easy” wins easy.

The next four games for the Longhorns are absolutely critical. Tomorrow night’s matchup with Oklahoma State is not only huge because it is important to defend home court, but also because it provides one of the few chances left to secure a quality win. In addition, the Cowboys are only 1.5 games back of Texas coming into the contest and enjoy a significantly easier finish to the season.

This weekend’s game against Baylor offers a great chance for Texas to take one of the road wins that are so critical in conference play. The Horns are only 5-6 in road/neutral games, and 4-4 when that is limited to true road contests. If Texas wants to have any margin for error as they come down the stretch, a win over the Bears is a must.

I’d prefer not to sound like Chicken Little calling a third consecutive game a must-win, but next Tuesday’s tilt with Texas Tech does fall squarely into that category. Texas has the potential to lose their final three games of the regular season, so winning these next three would give them the mystical 20-win mark and a 10th win in conference play.

Then the biggest challenges face the Longhorns, as they close out the year with games at Oklahoma, against A&M in Austin, and against the Jayhawks on their senior day in Lawrence. Winning any of these games would be a great boost, although I don’t personally hold out much hope at all for the KU tangle and also don’t feel a win over the Aggies in the future. That leaves the Longhorns with a reasonable shot at a 21-9 record, although finishing at 19-11 is just as possible.

As for the rest of the conference, I’m limiting my synopsis to only those five other teams that I feel have a feasible chance to seal a first-round bye for the conference tournament.

Texas A&M holds their destiny in their own hands the rest of the way, as they enjoy a one-game cushion over the Jayhawks and also hold the tiebreaker courtesy of their upset victory last Saturday. Their remaining road games are against the other big names in the B12 South, as they face OU (2/17), OSU (2/21), and the Horns (2/28) on the road before all is said and done. They would have to drop at least two of their remaining games to lose the conference title.
Conference W-L of remaining opponents: 26-32

Kansas sits in second place with a supremely talented squad and an extremely favorable sked. They could face challenges on the road in Manhattan and Norman when they take on Kansas State (2/19) and Oklahoma (2/26), but three games against B12 North bottom-feeders certainly help. If Kansas drops a game, they can likely kiss a conference title goodbye.
Conference W-L of remaining opponents: 27-31

Kansas State is currently in third place thanks to a road win over the Longhorns and a soft “North” schedule. Their finishing slate looks a bit rocky, however, and could put the Wildcats anywhere from 2nd to 5th in the final standings. A home win over Kansas (2/19) would certainly shake things up, but a finish at OSU (2/27) and home against the Sooners (3/3) looms large. This team is without a doubt the biggest wildcard in the standings down the stretch. They can show up and play with anybody in the league, or they can curl up and get skull-kicked by 27 against Kansas, as they did last week.
Conference W-L of remaining opponents: 27-30

One game behind the Wildcats and Longhorns are the Sooners. This team could finish strong by upsetting some of the big opponents left on their schedule, or they could absolutely tank and fall to the 6th/7th-place range when all is said and done. Oklahoma still must play A&M (2/17), Texas (2/24), and Kansas (2/26), but they get all three at home. The roadies at Mizzou (2/20) and K-State (3/3) will also definitely be a challenge.
Conference W-L of remaining opponents: 37-23

Checking in a half-game behind their cross-state rivals are the OSU Cowboys. The Cowboys have a chance to pick up a huge road win tomorrow night against the Horns, and still get Mizzou (2/17), Texas A&M (2/21), and K-State (2/27) at home. Although the Cowboys have yet to notch a conference road win, finishing at Baylor (3/3) and Nebraska (3/5) all but ensures that stat won’t last.
Conference W-L of remaining opponents: 35-34

Using my non-existant paranormal skills, here is how I see it shaking out:
1. Texas A&M (14-2)
2. Kansas (14-2)
3. Kansas State (11-5)
4. Texas (10-6)
5. Oklahoma State (10-6)
6. Oklahoma (8-8)

I’ll update this feature again next Sunday, when the picture surrounding those first-round byes may be slightly clearer. Oklahoma State preview coming at you by 10 A.M.

While yesterday’s first-half performance certainly hinted at defensive improvements, there is no doubt that it is still an Achilles heel for the Texas Longhorns this season. Looking at Ken Pomeroy’s stats, you can see that when the Longhorns allow a high effective field goal percentage for their opponents, they are more likely to lose.

No brainer, you might think. But effective field goal percentage gives weight to three-point shots, which is something that even the casual observer can tell Texas has a problem defending. And when eFG% is compared to turnover percentage, we can see how much more significant it is to the Longhorns’ defensive success. In six of seven losses for Barnes and Co., they are allowing opponents an eFG% of at least 50 percent. Only the Villanova loss was lower (43%) and was a generally sloppy game for both offenses.

In most of those losses, Texas allowed a player on the other team to get hot from long distance, if not more than one. Michigan State hit 53% of their threes, while Derek Raivio of Gonzaga was 7-of-14. Chris Lofton of Tennessee knocked down seven three-pointers in his 35-point performance. Just last weekend, Kansas State sunk 52% of their three-pointers, and then the Aggies made 48% of theirs two days later.

Without a doubt, guarding the perimeter is a key for the Longhorns. So with that in mind, I fired up the Tivo and watched every defensive possession of our worst game in that department, the one-point loss to Kansas State. I hoped to see how exactly we could leave so many people with wide-open looks from behind the arc, and I ended up with some interesting observations.

While we were wringing our hands over the zone defense used against the Wildcats (along with announcer Steve “The Roach” Lavin), we had our share of problems in the man-to-man as well. Kevin Durant often would lose his man in that scheme, either from helping on the backside or failing to communicate on screens.

The winning basket was a prime example of this, as Durant and Damion James were just inches away from each other on a screen. But both followed the ballhandler, leaving the screener open for the game-winning three. Talking is a huge part of defense, and it’s really frustrating that two guys could be close enough to smell the bubble gum being chewed and not call out a switch.

Connor Atchley also struggled in the man defense. He’s done great in the zone schemes, dating all the way back to his great performance against LSU down the stretch. But when the Horns come out in a man, he sags enough off of his man that a simple cut across the lane by another player screens him twice — he’s so far back, the cutter and his defender both slice between Atchley and his man. This led to a ton of open looks from the free throw line for Kansas State last Saturday.

As for the zone, it can be highly effective for Texas and helps to protect Durant and D.J. Augustin from the occassional foul trouble. But the K-State Wildcats put on a clinic as to how to beat the Texas 2-3 zone, and the Horns were doing nothing but helping. For much of the first half, KSU would flash a man to the free throw line and feed him the ball before looking to the low blocks or wing for another pass. Against that attack, Texas limited the Wildcats and headed to the locker room with a lead.

But in the second half, simple dribble penetration and skip passing was the undoing of the Horns. If the point would attack the top of the key, both Abrams and Augustin would collapse on him. This left the wings wide open time and again for three balls. If K-State made a pass to the wings or dribbled around the perimeter, both a guard and the back end of the zone would converge, leaving a man open at the top of the key. In essence, a failure to stay home in the zone constantly left men all alone in the vacated areas.

It seems counterintuitive to say that a small Longhorn team without a true post presence can afford to give up points inside. But with the high correlation of eFG% — which favors three-point shooting teams — to Texas’ success on D, the Longhorns need to focus on limiting the looks outside. Our team is young and that is a huge reason why there are these defensive breakdowns. But the Horns need to communicate and be aware of their location on the court so opponents aren’t given as much space as ebola carriers.

The increased pressure beyond the arc in yesterday’s win over Iowa State looks like a step in the right direction. But we won’t truly see how well Texas has progressed until they take on Baylor next Saturday, a squad that takes 40% of their shots from behind the arc.

Texas prepares to take on Iowa State

The Iowa State Cyclones were able to do something that no other Big 12 team has done in ten games this season — hold Kevin Durant to less than 26 points. Unfortunately, they didn’t account for the other freshman phenom on the Longhorns. D.J. Augustin stepped up to the plate and delivered, dropping a career-high 31 points and six assists in a 77-68 Longhorn victory.

Texas (17-7 overall, 7-3 Big 12) jumped out to an early lead and never looked back. The Longhorns found themselves up by a 21-5 count before the second media timeout, and stretched the lead out to 21 before halftime. They did it with defensive pressure that had been severely lacking in recent games.

For much of the first half, Texas showed a man defense that oftentimes extended out well past the three point line. The added pressure caused a ton of turnovers and prevented Iowa State (11-12, 3-7) from ever establishing any sort of offensive rhythm. The Cyclones shot only 36 percent in the first half and coughed up the ball thirteen times.

With a comfy 20-point cushion, Texas came out with a lot less intensity in the second frame. The defense sagged considerably, while Iowa State slowly chipped away at the lead. Meanwhile, the Cyclones were turning up their own defensive game, denying entry passes to Durant and meeting him with double and triple-teams when he did happen to get his hands on it. With just over six minutes left, the lead had been trimmed to eight.

The Longhorns regrouped and held off the late charge, counting on a series of three-pointers and some dazzling plays from KD to defend their home court. The Cyclones were able to get within seven points in the final 90 seconds, but Durant blocked a layup attempt and effectively sealed the game.

The double- and triple-teams that ISU showed really opened the game for our guard play. Unfortunately, that is both a blessing and a curse with our backcourt. Augustin understands how to get to the rack, finish layups, and oftentimes draw the foul. He was a perfect 10-for-10 on the day, and added a few of his trademark reverse layups.

A.J. Abrams, however, continues to pull up short and launch floaters that end up nowhere close to the rim. He’s a great free-throw shooter, and would really help out the team if he’d get to the line. But for some reason, he has it encoded into his DNA to loft floaters over guys 16 inches taller than him and hope they go in. To give Abrams a little bit of credit, he did log a career high with six rebounds. But when put next to his 1-for-10 shooting night — 0-for-6 on two-point attempts — it quickly pales.

Damion James had an outstanding day on the offensive end, and his game is really coming around. He’s no longer afraid to pop those 15-foot jumpers, and he really showcased that range today. He looks a lot more comfortable taking those shots than the little jumpers in the lane that he’d been missing for most of the year. It seems that for James, he needs to either dunk it or take midrange shots. Fortunately, he seems to be aware of it as well. James finished with ten points and five rebounds, although he found himself in a bit of foul trouble in the second half. If he can just limit those fouls on the defensive end, he’ll be able to give us even more minutes.

Coach Barnes backed up his pre-game comments about increasing playing time for Dexter Pittman, giving the big man nine minutes in the ballgame. Dexter came in for shorter spurts in this game, but was able to come in more times. He didn’t really make much of a difference on either end, so it does raise the question of whether or not the short spurts make it tough for him to get into the flow of the game. I’ll be interested to see how Pittman plays into the OSU game on Monday night, as he was not a real part of the gameplan when we played them in the triple-overtime thriller last month.

J.D. Lewis missed the game due to illness, while Matt Hill is still recovering from his foot injury. That left Barnes with just eight players and only Craig Winder to spell the guards. As a result, Abrams, Augustin, and Justin Mason each played over 35 minutes. While that may make fatigue a factor for those guys with the short turnaround on Monday, the fact that the Cowboys played a double-overtime game today may negate the problem.

Look here for a brief commentary on the defense in the morning or early afternoon, and a peek at the homestretch of the Big 12 conference race in the wee hours of Sunday night/Monday morning. And don’t forget the Duke/Maryland tilt at 4 PM (central) on Fox Sports Net.