TEAM W L LAST WEEK THIS WEEK Kansas State 8 2 W at Texas Tech, 68-59 W vs. Iowa State, 79-70 Mon at Kansas Sat vs. Baylor Kansas 7 3 L at TCU, 62-55 L at Oklahoma, 72-66 Mon vs. Kansas State Sat vs. Texas Oklahoma State 7 3 W vs. Baylor, 69-67 (OT) W at Texas, 72-59 Wed at Texas Tech Sat vs. Oklahoma Baylor 6 4 L at Oklahoma State, 69-67 (OT) W vs. Texas Tech, 75-48 Wed vs. West Virginia Sat at Kansas State Iowa State 6 4 W vs. Oklahoma, 83-64 L at Kansas State, 79-70 Wed at Texas Sat vs. TCU Oklahoma 6 4 L at Iowa State, 83-64 W vs. Kansas, 72-66 Mon vs. TCU Sat at Oklahoma State West Virginia 5 5 W vs. Texas, 60-58 W at TCU, 63-50 Wed at Baylor Sat vs. Texas Tech Texas 2 8 L at West Virginia, 60-58 L vs. Oklahoma State, 72-59 Wed vs. Iowa State Sat at Kansas Texas Tech 2 8 L vs. Kansas State, 68-59 L at Baylor, 75-48 Wed vs. Oklahoma State Sat at West Virginia TCU 1 9 W vs. Kansas, 62-55 L vs. West Virginia, 63-50 Mon at Oklahoma Sat at Iowa State

The big picture

There are hits and there are misses. And then, there are misses.

Two weeks ago, in this very space, I posited that the loser of the Kansas State/Oklahoma game on February 2nd could essentially be eliminated from the conference race, even though they mathematically would remain alive for weeks. “The Jayhawks are favored to win in every game they have left,” I wrote, crediting the number-crunching skills of Ken Pomeroy. “With odds like that, it’s hard to believe that KU could drop three games down the stretch.”

Here we are, four games later, and I’ve been exposed as having the predictive skills of the Titanic’s engineers. The Jayhawks have lost three straight games for the first time in nearly eight years, and still have hostile road games left against Oklahoma State and Iowa State, plus a trip to face Baylor in Waco. And as for the loser of that Kansas State/Oklahoma game on February 2nd? The Sooners find themselves just a game behind KU and two games off the league lead, with the title race still wide open.

While it’s fun to laugh at how quickly my words were made to look foolish, it’s certainly worth noting just how shocking Kansas’ tailspin is. Not only were the Jayhawks favored by Pomeroy in each of those three games, but the cumulative probability of the team losing all three games was 0.196%. Not 19 percent, but 19 hundredths of a percent. If some Missouri fan had a bit too much to drink in Vegas and put down a few bucks on that moneyline parlay ten days ago, Allen Fieldhouse would probably have been turned into the world’s biggest Braum’s by now.

Even with the Jayhawks reeling, it’s tough to bet against Bill Self. Kansas has won or shared eight consecutive Big 12 titles, and the team still sits just a game out of first with a chance to knock off the league leaders tonight at Allen Fieldhouse. With four weeks to go, there’s certainly more than enough time for Kansas to get back on track and extend that conference-title streak to a ninth season. The road to the Big 12 title could still very well run through Lawrence, but now there are at least some viable contenders hoping to put in a detour.

Weekday games

TCU at Oklahoma; Monday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPNU)
Kansas at Kansas State; Monday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPN)

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech; Wednesday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPNU)
Iowa State at Texas; Wednesday, 7 P.M. CT (Big 12 Network/ESPN3.com)
West Virginia at Baylor; Wednesday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPN2)

The Big 12 conference race has reached the turn, and it is just as competitive as pundits predicted during the offseason. Only one game separates the league’s top four teams, with Oklahoma and Baylor sitting just a game behind that pack.

While the league was supposed to be a battle from spots one through eight, the Longhorns have failed to live up to those expectations. Texas is mired in a tie for eighth place with Texas Tech, a full two games behind West Virginia. The Longhorns have lost three league games in regulation by six points or less and another two in overtime, leaving the team wondering “What if?” as the season starts down the home stretch.

This afternoon, the Longhorns welcome an Oklahoma State team to the Erwin Center that finally has broken through on the road. The Cowboys had won just once in 22 Big 12 road games before pulling off the upset at Allen Fieldhouse last weekend, and now find themselves in the midst of a championship hunt.

Although Texas has knocked off Oklahoma State eight straight years in Austin, that streak is in danger this afternoon. Stat guru Ken Pomeroy gives the Longhorns a 31% chance to win the game, predicting a five-point margin of victory for the Pokes. However, if Texas can manage to pull off the upset at home, it could provide some momentum for the final four weeks of the season, as Myck Kabongo makes his long-awaited return on Wednesday night against Iowa State. That tussle with the Cyclones is the first of four home games Texas will play against the league’s top half down the stretch.

By the numbers

This year’s edition of the Cowboys is the most successful for Travis Ford during his five years in Stillwater, with the team posting great numbers on both sides of the ball. Oklahoma State has a stifling adjusted defensive efficiency that is ranked 10th in the nation, as the team allows opponents to score just 0.864 points per possession. Their offensive numbers are nearly as strong, with the Pokes scoring 1.076 adjusted points per possession, good enough for 55th out of 347 Division I teams.

Their defensive dominance is particularly impressive because they are sound in every area of Dean Oliver’s Four Factors. Oklahoma State’s defensive turnover rate of 22.6% is ranked 58th in the country, while the team also limits opponents to just 29.5% of their offensive rebounding chances. The Pokes also avoid sending their opponents to the line, with a free-throw rate of 31.9%, ranked 89th in the nation. Add in their defensive effective field goal percentage of 44.9%, ranked 43rd nationally, and it’s clear to see why opponents are having such a difficult time finding the net against OSU.

Oklahoma State’s forwards do a great job blocking shots inside, a big reason why the team’s defensive field goal percentage inside the arc is 16th-best in the nation. That’s also a big reason why Cowboy opponents are frequently forced to take shots from the perimeter. OSU opponents take more than 35% of their shots from beyond the arc, a distribution that is one of the 100 highest in D-I hoops. That’s also the only place that Oklahoma State opponents are finding much success, as 34% of those attempts have gone down on the year.

Meet the Cowboys

Freshman point guard Marcus Smart (No. 33) is the face of the program this year for Oklahoma State, and for good reason. Although he’s not a great shooter — only 27.7% from three and 40.2% overall — Smart is a natural leader who puts his teammates in a position to score and manages to make big shots when the pressure is on. As a part of Team USA’s U18 squad, Smart impressed coaches Mark Few and Billy Donovan, who called him the best leader they have worked with.

While Smart averages nearly 4.7 assists per game, he also makes a big difference on the defensive end, where his quick hands pester opposing guards and lead to easy transition points for Oklahoma State. He averages 2.9 steals per game, giving him the nation’s ninth-best steal rate at 5.3%.

The team’s leading scorer is Markel Brown (No. 22), a quick, exciting guard with incredible hops. Brown can put the ball on the floor to create his own shot or get to the rim, and has range to knock down jumpers all over the court. He can explode off the ground in an instant, which makes him good for a highlight-reel dunk or two per game, and that also makes him a very good shot blocker despite being just 6’3″.

Sophomore Le’Bryan Nash (No. 2) was the big freshman name on last year’s squad, but he struggled with the weight of carrying an entire team. This year, he’s not the best and only option for Oklahoma State, and he’s flourishing with a better supporting cast. Although Nash has a good jump shot, he has been too persistent in taking shots from behind the arc, where he’s made only 23.1% of his attempts this season. When he stays near the block to post up or tries to face up other forwards from about 12 to 15 feet, Nash is much more effective.

Senior Philip Jurick (No. 44) is the man in the middle, who is called upon mostly to rebound and score the occasional putback. He’s playing about 20 minutes per game, but still leads the team with more than seven rebounds per game. Jurick ranks in the top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages, and his 6.6% block percentage also ranks 120th for D-I players.

Joining Jurick in the frontcourt is 6’8″ sophomore Michael Cobbins (No. 20), who is actually slightly better at blocking shots. Although Jurick and Cobbins both have swatted 23 shots this year, the sophomore has a block rate of 6.8%. Long and lean, he also has springy hops that make him an excellent defensive rebounder. Cobbins can also knock down hook shots around the paint, and favors the power dribble even though he doesn’t have the big body of a prototypical forward.

Freshman guard Phil Forte (No. 13) has been a lifelong friend and teammate of Smart, and now he’s a key bench contributor for OSU. For Texas fans who remember the historic performance by Keiton Page in last year’s game at Stillwater, Forte could provide some flashbacks. The freshman has an incredibly quick release on the catch and shoot, and has knocked down 36.6% of his threes on the season.

Forward Kamari Murphy (No. 21) is a 6’8″ freshman from Brooklyn who is playing solid minutes off the bench. Built in the same mold as Cobbins, he’s a high-motor guy who works hard on the glass and also has great natural instincts and timing for blocking shots.

Junior Kirby Gardner (No. 1) is a juco transfer from San Bernardino Valley who plays around 11 minutes per game in relief of Smart. He has a great feel for pace, and uses that to his advantage when running the pick and roll with Jurick or the other bigs.

The final member of the rotation is guard Brian Williams (No. 4), who is working his way back from a broken left wrist. After missing the first 18 games of the year due to that injury, Williams appeared against Iowa State and Baylor, logging a total of 14 minutes and six points. Although he is still getting reacquainted with game speed, having Williams back in the mix will be a big boost as the Big 12 race heads down the stretch.

Keys to the game

1) Knock down early threes – Oklahoma State’s defense can be very difficult to crack, as the length on the perimeter makes penetrating difficult, and the solid shot blockers inside add another layer of resistance. The one area where opponents have found success against the Cowboys is on the perimeter, so that means that the Longhorns will need big games from Ioannis Papapetrou (No. 33) and Julien Lewis (No. 14), the only real three-point threats for Texas this afternoon.

In Big 12 play, Papapetrou has made 46.2% of his shots behind the arc, while Lewis has struggled to an ugly 24.4% mark. Lewis has made more than 34% of his attempts on the season, so there is reason to be optimistic that he can break out of his slump sometime soon. If Texas can knock down some threes early, adjustments from the Oklahoma State defense will hopefully open up things a little bit inside the arc.

2) Avoid perimeter turnovers – That aforementioned length gives opposing guards a lot of trouble on the perimeter, while Smart’s quick hands are worth a few easy buckets for Oklahoma State in every game. Texas is still struggling to hang on to the basketball, so this is a very scary match-up for the Horns. If Texas can avoid wasting possessions and giving up fast breaks with dumb perimeter turnovers, they might stay within striking distance of an upset. If not, the Cowboys will likely enjoy their first two-game road winning streak since 2009.

3) Turn back dribble penetration – Oklahoma State is not a team that dumps it in to the standard big man and watches as he does his work. Although Nash has the ability to post up on the blocks, the Cowboys usually employ pick and rolls and dribble penetration to get defenses moving and earn easy looks in the paint. If the Longhorns can keep Smart and Brown from slicing up the defense on the bounce, the Cowboys will have to rely more on perimeter shooting from the likes of Forte. If Texas cannot slow down the OSU guards, the Cowboys could find points very easy to come by.

When the suits at ESPN planned out their Big Monday lineup, Texas’ first visit to Morgantown seemed like a no-brainer. With a batch of transfers becoming eligible, Bob Huggins’ Mountaineers looked to be competitive in the middle of a deep Big 12, while Myck Kabongo and the Longhorns were expected to be fighting for a 15th-consecutive NCAA appearance. Instead, both teams have scuttled through disappointing seasons, and are now only hoping to avoid first-round action in the Big 12 tournament.

Meet the Mountaineers

For an in-depth look at the West Virginia roster, check out LRT’s game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first meeting

The Longhorns could not score a point before the first media timeout when these two teams played in Austin on January 9th, but their stifling defense kept them in the game. West Virginia was limited to just 30.6% shooting from the field, and the Mountaineers missed their first 14 attempts from three-point range. With the Longhorns only sinking 34.5% of their own looks, it was not a pretty game to watch.

Sheldon McClellan (No. 1) struggled against a tight, physical approach from West Virginia, and managed just nine points on 2-of-13 shooting in a reserve role. It was Jonathan Holmes (No. 10) who paced the Horns while battling a big West Virginia frontcourt, scoring 12 points to go with nine rebounds.

That Mountaineer frontcourt was trying to dodge foul trouble all night long, even with Aaric Murray (No. 24) and Deniz Kilicli (No. 13) coming off of the bench for Coach Huggins. Kilicli and Dominique Rutledge (No. 1) both had three fouls just 15 minutes into the game, while Murray had two of his own in the first half. Even with the rotating frontcourt, West Virginia was able to reclaim 40% of their missed shots before the break.

That trouble on the defensive glass would continue for Texas down the stretch and ultimately prove costly. The Longhorns were up by 10 points with 3:41 to play, giving them a win probability of 98.7% at that point, according to Ken Pomeroy. West Virginia suddenly caught fire from long range, hitting three triples and forcing Holmes to drain his own three in the final seconds just to get Texas to overtime.

In the extra period, West Virginia reclaimed 66.7% of their offensive rebounding chances, including three on one trip down the court. After Prince Ibeh (No. 44) made one of two free throws to cut the Mountaineer lead to one point with less than a minute to go, another WVU offensive rebound crushed the Longhorns after they had forced a defensive stop.

The Longhorns had one final chance with 15 seconds to go, down by a basket, but a risky pass from Ioannis Papapetrou (No. 33) was picked off by Murray and iced the 57-53 overtime win for West Virginia.

Since then…

That torrid comeback in Austin was the first of a few valiant efforts by the Mountaineers in Big 12 play, but it was the only one to result in a victory. West Virginia erased an 18-point second-half hole at Iowa State, but lost on a Georges Niang layup in the final seconds. A week ago, the Mountaineers overcame an ice-cold start and a 15-point deficit against Kansas to get within a basket in the second half. Once again, the comeback bid fell short, and West Virginia dropped a 61-56 decision.

The Mountaineers were able to build on that late-game surge when they traveled to Lubbock on Saturday. West Virginia posted its best offensive performance of the season, scoring 1.218 points per possession against the Red Raiders. Normally, strong showings against Tech and TCU are not cause for celebration, but West Virginia was able to jump-start its offense with a barrage of three-pointers. For a team that had made just 29.1% of their threes coming into the game, West Virginia’s 10-of-18 performance behind the arc was downright miraculous.

Guard Eron Harris (No. 10) made three of those triples for the Mountaineers, and led all scorers with 18 points. The Texas game was something of a launching pad for the exciting freshman, who made up for a rough outing against the Longhorns by hitting the go-ahead three in the final minute of regulation. Since that game, he’s averaging 13 points per contest and has made at least a pair of threes against four different opponents.

The Texas game was also the first that Juwan Staten (No. 3) found himself in the doghouse, as the Dayton transfer was benched for all of the second half and overtime against the Longhorns. He did not play in the following game against Kansas State, and has started just twice since then. Even with Coach Huggins using Staten in his own personal game of Starting Five Hokey Pokey, the senior guard seems to be adjusting. In his last two games, Staten has averaged 12.5 points, a nice bump from his previous season average of 9.5 per game.

The Mountaineers briefly experimented with a four-guard look, but have reverted to their traditional lineup. While trying to contain the Cyclones and their floor-spreading attack, Coach Huggins put four guards on the court, and then started just one big in the following game against Purdue. After the Boilermakers whipped West Virginia by a 79-52 count, the project was quickly abandoned.

For the Longhorns, the biggest difference tonight will be the absence of Holmes. The sophomore forward broke a bone in his hand on January 21st, and is expected to miss at least three weeks. He was the key contributor in the first game between these two teams, and was the Longhorn best-equipped to handle the physical nature of West Virginia’s frontcourt.

One player who will be called on to pick up the slack is undersized forward Jaylen Bond (No. 5). He was the lone bright spot in an embarrassing blowout loss at Kansas State last Wednesday, but was essentially a non-factor in the win against TCU on Saturday. Bond’s interior defense has left a lot to be desired, especially when he gambles for steals and gets out of position. Still, the Longhorns will need a solid performance from him and the freshman bigs if they are going to limit the damage done by Murray.

Holmes is not the only player missing tonight’s game due to injury. West Virginia senior swingman Matt Humphrey (No. 21) is also likely to miss his fourth-consecutive game due to a shoulder injury. Although the Mountaineers have adequate depth in the backcourt, Humphrey’s 35.3% mark from behind the arc was one of the best on a poor-shooting three-point team.

Keys to the game

1) Limit second chances – There’s no way to completely keep a Bob Huggins team off of the glass, but the Longhorns must do a better job than they did in crunch time of the first game. On many possessions, West Virginia’s best offense is a putback opportunity, so the Longhorns have to follow up their defensive stops with a rebound. Texas allowed WVU to reclaim 39.5% of its offensive rebounding chances in the first game, so the Horns will have to seriously improve on that number to get a road win tonight.

2) Get McClellan going – Texas was able to survive a poor showing by McClellan in the first game because of the solid night by Holmes. With the big man now wearing a cast on the bench, even more pressure will fall on McClellan to provide points tonight. He has been visibly frustrated by good defenses in the past, and West Virginia’s rough, suffocating approach could easily get in his head tonight. If McClellan can get a few hoops early, it will help him to avoid forcing things out of frustration and will make things easier for the entire team.

3) Hang on to the ball – The Longhorns coughed it up on more than 20% of their possessions against West Virginia the first time around, which was actually an improvement on their season average. Still, Texas turned it over twice in the final three minutes and another two times in overtime. The Longhorns have had difficulty closing out games all season, and ill-timed turnovers are a big reason why. Texas will have to deal with West Virginia’s physical nature and hang on to the basketball if they want to steal a road win in Morgantown.

4) Make free throws – West Virginia is in the bottom third of D-I hoops when it comes to sending opponents to the stripe, and Texas failed to take advantage of that in the first meeting. The Longhorns made only 44% of their free throws in the loss to West Virginia, sinking just 11 of 25. If Texas leaves that many free points on the table tonight, it’s hard to envision a positive final result on the scoreboard.

On Wednesday, the Texas Longhorns suffered their worst loss in more than seven years, as they were blown out by 26 points at Bramlage Coliseum. Texas posted its second-worst defensive performance of the year, allowing Kansas State to score 1.268 points per possession, well above the team’s season average of 0.885 points allowed. It was a demoralizing loss in every facet of the game, as the Wildcats out-hustled Texas to loose balls, forced turnovers, and scored at will for the entire 40 minutes.

Fortunately, the Longhorns should be able to quickly put that loss behind them. TCU comes to town tonight for the first meeting in five years between these former Southwest Conference rivals, currently riding a seven-game losing streak. The Horned Frogs and first-year coach Trent Johnson have suffered through terrible luck in the injury department and are still looking for their first conference win in the Big 12. Texas could not ask for a better opponent to face when in dire need of a bounce-back performance.

By the numbers

Folks who have complained about their inability to watch the Longhorn Network might be thankful for the lack of carriage tonight. Both TCU and Texas struggle to score, while both teams also have strong defenses. Add in the fact that the Horned Frogs play at the 15th-slowest pace in all of Division I hoops, and the points could be few and far between in this one.

TCU’s adjusted offensive efficiency is ranked an abysmal 329th out of 347 teams in D-I. The Horned Frogs score an adjusted 0.867 points per possession, with that number dipping even further in conference play. Against Big 12 opponents, the Frogs have managed just 0.804 points per possession, and they have posted a league-worst 38.6% effective field goal percentage.

Making those scoring problems even worse are TCU’s struggles to hold on to the ball and to convert their freebies. The Frogs have coughed it up on 22.5% of their possessions and have made only 60.2% of their free throws. That percentage at the line is 10th-worst in Division I, which should help a foul-prone Texas defense tonight. The Longhorns send their opponents to the line more than any other team in Big 12 play, so they have to hope that TCU continues leaving points at the charity stripe.

Defensively, the Horned Frogs have performed admirably, although their numbers are helped out quite a bit by a very weak non-conference schedule. TCU faced only one team ranked in the Top 100 by Ken Pomeroy, and played only one other that ranked in the Top 150. Since shifting to league competition, the Horned Frogs have allowed 1.057 points per possession, ninth-best in the conference.

The tempo-free areas where TCU has excelled defensively are turnover percentage and free-throw rate. The Frogs have forced Big 12 opponents to turn it over on 22.6% of their possessions, the best rate in the league. Their FTR is second-best in the Big 12, as they give up roughly one free throw for every four field-goal attempts.

Meet the Horned Frogs

The Horned Frogs seemed to be heading in the right direction at the end of Jim Christian’s tenure, pulling off big home upsets over UNLV and New Mexico last year. Although they lost three key players from last year’s team, a lot of promising young talent and a solid recruiting class gave TCU fans a reason to be excited heading into their first Big 12 season. But, thanks to a rash of injuries, Coach Johnson has been forced to shift his rotation all season long, and he’s rolled out nine different starting lineups this year.

Big man Aaron Durley (No. 44), who had originally committed to Marquette, was lost for the year after suffering a knee injury in pre-season workouts. Expectations were also high for Amric Fields (No. 4), who was the Sixth Man of the Year in the Mountain West last season. Unfortunately, he also suffered a knee injury just minutes into the third game of the season. As if those setbacks weren’t enough, the Horned Frogs also lost Jarvis Ray (No. 1) for six to eight weeks after he injured his foot in a non-con win over Southern.

With so many key contributors lost, even more pressure has fallen on the shoulders of sophomore point guard Kyan Anderson (No. 5). Tabbed Freshman of the Year in the Mountain West last season, Anderson has started all 20 games for the Horned Frogs this year and has an impressive assist rate of 26.9%. He is the team’s only consistent three-point shooter, as he sinks 35.9% of his looks and averages nearly four attempts per game.

Anderson’s 11.6 points per game are tops on the team, and his 3.1% steal rate ranks just outside the Top 300 nationally. Most impressively, Anderson logs those steals without drawing whistles, as he has been called for just 1.7 fouls per 40 minutes.

The only other Frog to start in every game is senior forward Garlon Green (No. 33). He has shown some nice post moves on the block, but also has a solid mid-range game and accuracy beyond the three-point line. Although he averages just under two attempts from long range per game, Green has connected on 38.9% of those shots.

One area of Green’s game that is frustrating is his work on the offensive glass. In the loss to Iowa State, his ability to extend possessions with offensive rebounds and get easy second-chance points were a key to TCU staying competitive with the Cyclones. But on the season, Green’s offensive rebounding percentage is a paltry 3.9%. If the 6’7″ senior would fight more consistently for boards on that end of the court, the Horned Frogs could be much more competitive in the Big 12.

One man who is rebounding consistently is fellow senior Adrick McKinney (No. 24). A hometown kid who played at Trimble Tech High, McKinney is ranked just outside of the Top 100 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. McKinney snags 12.6% of his opportunities on the offensive end, while reclaiming 22% of opponents’ misses on the other end.

McKinney is a handful inside, but most opponents have made him work for his points. The senior makes just 53.4% of his free throws, which is why defenses have no problem fouling him when he gets the ball in good position down low. McKinney’s free-throw rate of 71.5% — meaning he takes roughly seven free throws for every ten field goal tries — underscores that problem.

For a Texas team that has struggled defending the post since Jonathan Holmes’ injury, this is a welcome development. As long as the Horns make their post fouls count and don’t allow and-one opportunities, they can limit McKinney’s effectiveness by sending him to the stripe.

The other big man for TCU is sophomore Devonta Abron (No. 23), who hails from Seagoville outside of Dallas. A transfer from Arkansas, he was given a waiver and allowed to play immediately due to an ill family member. Like McKinney, Abron struggles at the line, and opponents send him there often. His free-throw rate is an even 70%, while he actually makes just 52.4% of his attempts from the stripe.

At 6’8″ and 255 pounds, Abron is a presence in the lane. His 4.6% block percentage is tops on the team and averages out to roughly one block per game. He’s ranked in the Top 250 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages and has increased his playing time to more than 24 minutes per game in Big 12 contests. Abron still has great strides to make offensively, but he’s certainly developed quite a bit in his short time with TCU.

Freshman guard Charles Hill, Jr. (No. 0) is currently the flavor of the month for that fifth starting spot, having surged onto the scene in conference play. After averaging just 2.2 minutes per game in non-conference games, Hill has started five of seven Big 12 games and is averaging more than 26 minutes against Big 12 foes.

The freshman is an aggressive guard with great slashing skills, and that driving ability really opens things up for an offense that can become very stagnant at times. Unfortunately, he has struggled to actually put the ball in the basket, sinking less than 30% of his shots on the year. Until he proves that he can hit a midrange jumper or consistently knock down the triple, defenses can sag off of him and take away that driving threat.

Senior guard Nate Butler Lind (No. 21) has also started five games in Big 12 play, but has logged eleven starts on the year. He also brings dribble penetration to the table, but has been marginally more consistent than Hill when it comes to knocking down the midrange jumper. Like Hill, he also has not made enough threes to warrant tight defense, so that hampers his ability to put it on the floor and get to the paint.

The final player of TCU’s core rotation is 6’7″ forward Connell Crossland (No. 2). A juco transfer from Logan College, he has been a solid rebounder off the bench and is averaging 21 minutes per game. He nearly logged a double-double in the team’s Big 12 debut, snagging nine boards to go with eight points. Crossland has continued to impress in conference play, ranking second on the team with five boards per game. He’s also turned it up on the offensive end, averaging 11.5 points in the team’s last two games against Baylor and West Viginia.

Keys to the game

1) Take advantage on the glass – Texas has struggled all season to secure defensive rebounds, and that problem has only become worse with the absence of Holmes. Texas Tech reclaimed 48.6% of their missed shots, while the Wildcats grabbed 40% of their misses on Wednesday night. TCU is a very average rebounding team that has a tough time making shots. If Texas can actually take advantage of that weakness on the glass and hold the Frogs to mostly one-shot possessions, the Longhorns should have no trouble tonight.

2) Take care of the ball – One area where the Frogs do find success is in forcing mistakes on the defensive end. Ball control has been a recurring problem for Texas, and those problems resurfaced in that ugly loss to K-State. The Longhorns ended 27.5% of their possessions with a turnover, and simply cannot afford to do the same against TCU tonight. The Horned Frogs are going to try to make this a low-possession game, so each and every mistake will be magnified.

3) Speed up the Frogs – One way to avoid a low-possession game with highly-leveraged possessions is to force TCU to speed things up. The Frogs were able to hang with Iowa State for about 15 minutes when they matched the up-tempo approach of the Cyclones, but ultimately made too many mistakes and couldn’t play good transition defense.

Meanwhile, Texas showed that it was willing to throw out some pressure against Texas Tech last Saturday in an effort to speed up the Red Raiders. The Horns would be wise to try that same approach with the Frogs at random times tonight, not only making TCU uncomfortable on offense, but also hopefully contributing to some easy fast break points for Texas.

The Texas Longhorns finally earned their first conference win on Saturday night, taking care of a Texas Tech team that should finish the season at the bottom of the Big 12 standings. Texas looked rejuvenated, hustling to loose balls and pressuring the Red Raiders into mistakes. While excitement was certainly tempered by the quality of opponent, geting over that hump and finally earning a league win was a big accomplishment for this young team. After three narrow losses in Big 12 play and a heartbreaking loss to UCLA in the non-con, the win was a much-needed boost of confidence.

With four games still remaining until the return of point guard Myck Kabongo and with Jonathan Holmes out at least three weeks with a broken bone in his hand, the young Longhorns face long odds in trying to climb back towards .500 in league play. Increasing the difficulty level are a pair of tough road trips over the next week, as the Horns head to Kansas State tonight and West Virginia on Monday. Although Texas is just 1-8 away from the Erwin Center and winless in true road games, stealing a victory in either one of those games would go a long way in the team’s fight to get back to the middle of the pack.

Kansas State poses an especially tough test, as their experience far outweighs that of the Longhorns. The Wildcats return essentially everyone from last year’s NCAA-tournament team, having lost only Jamar Samuels and little-used Victor Ojeleye to graduation. Texas has also come up empty in its last two trips to Bramlage Coliseum, while K-State has won 11 out of their last 12 games at the Octagon of Doom.

By the numbers

With almost the entire K-State roster back, it’s no surprise that the team has maintained its stingy defense from the Frank Martin era. On the season, the Wildcats are allowing an adjusted 0.902 points per possession, according to Ken Pomeroy. The Wildcats force mistakes on 22.4% of their defensive possessions and have held opponents to a 46% effective field-goal percentage, both stats that rank in the Top 100 nationally.

However, when you dig a little deeper into the numbers, it’s clear that K-State’s defensive stats have been buoyed a bit by a very strong start against weak non-conference competition. Since the start of Big 12 play, Kansas State’s adjusted defensive efficiency has ballooned to 1.001 points per possession. League opponents have an effective field goal percentage of 49.8% and a free-throw rate of 44.8%. In simpler terms, Big 12 foes are getting to the line to shoot a little more than two free throws for every five field goal attempts.

Another K-State statistic that has seen a precipitous drop since the start of league play is their offensive rebounding percentage. For the year, the Wildcats have reclaimed 39.1% of their missed shots, but have been able to do so only 27.8% of the time against Big 12 opponents. In fact, in Saturday’s loss to Iowa State, KSU posted just a 17.2% mark on the offensive glass. The Wildcats are only an average-shooting bunch, having an effective field goal percentage of 47.7% on the year. That means that offensive rebounds are essential for K-State to keep scoring, so the drop-off in league play is concerning.

The other reason that the Wildcats are able to have an efficient offense despite average shooting is the fact that they value the basketball. Kansas State has a turnover percentage of only 18.9%, and the team has improved that to 17% against Big 12 opponents. Their ability to maximize possessions by not turning it over and getting to missed shots is the reason that their adjusted offensive efficiency is a solid 1.062 points per possession.

That offense has a new look under first-year head coach Bruce Weber. He favors a motion offense with constant cutting across the free-throw line and baseline, eschewing pick and roll sets for dribble handoffs and crisp passing. As a result, the Wildcats have assists on nearly 65% of their buckets, a number that ranks 11th in the nation. That stat also underscores the fact that it can be hard for K-State to score if it doesn’t get looks in the flow of the offense. The team lacks true slashers that can get to the rim or players that can shake a defender to get an open jumper.

That reliance on taking jump shots off of passes also means that the Wildcats don’t get to the line very often. The team’s free-throw rate of 32.3% is ranked in the bottom 100 of Division I’s 347 teams, but that could be a blessing in disguise. When the Wildcats do manage to get to the charity stripe, they make only 64.7% of their attempts.

Meet the Wildcats

The team’s leading scorer is senior Rodney McGruder (No. 22), a player that Texas fans know all too well. In last year’s meeting at Bramlage Coliseum, McGruder poured in 33 points, and he has averaged 19.3 points in four games against Texas. There were some growing pains for the senior at the begining of the season, as he adjusted to his new role in Weber’s offense. Now, he is much better at reading the defense on his cuts and finding open space to receive the pass and get up his shot. McGruder is averaging 18.7 points and has made 44.2% of his threes in Big 12 games.

Whoever is tasked with slowing down McGruder will have to bring their track shoes. The Wildcats will run their star through numerous screens, waiting for just enough of a defensive lapse to get him open for a jumper. If Julien Lewis and the other Texas defenders can stay in McGruder’s shirt and force him to put the ball on the floor, his effectiveness is limited. He has shown at times this season that when opponents deny him open looks on the pass, he can get frustrated enough to start forcing bad, challenged shots off the bounce.

As of late, the other main scoring threat for Kansas State is junior Shane Southwell (No. 1). After coming off the bench in the team’s first nine games, Southwell has been a starter in the last ten. In Big 12 play, he is averaging 11.8 points and has knocked down 48% of his threes. He is a skilled shooter who has a nice midrange jumper, but he is perhaps most dangerous when opponents switch on screens. The 6’6″ Southwell is quick to notice when he has a smaller guard on him, and will isolate those defenders near the hoop for short jumpers and layups.

At the point, sophomore Angel Rodriguez (No. 13) has grown up quite a bit since last season. In the team’s last four games, the once-erratic Rodriguez has posted 26 assists against only three turnovers. For a player that would often over-penetrate and force the ball against set defenders, that improvement is staggering. He still can get defenders on his hip and drive to the rack, but now the sophomore has a better feel for when those opportunities are actually there.

Unfortunately, while Rodriguez has been improving his ball control, his long-range shooting has declined considerably. The Puerto Rican product certainly has range beyond the arc, but he has made only 6-of-28 (21.4%) in the team’s last ten games, dragging his average down to 29.6% on the year. While the Longhorns can’t completely sag off of him, his long-range struggles do mean that they can give him a little space and try to neutralize his driving ability.

In the middle, sophomore Thomas Gipson (No. 42) is a vacuum that keeps the K-State offense humming. Although the Wildcats don’t typically post him up and dump the ball inside, he constantly reclaims missed shots and knows where to go when Rodriguez drives so that he can receive the dump-off and go up strong. Gipson’s offensive rebounding mark of 15.9% is 21st in all of D-I hoops, while his 17.3% mark on the defensive end also ranks just outside the Top 400.

One issue with Gipson’s game is his inability to convert at the line. Although K-State doesn’t get to the stripe very often as a team, he draws a little less than six fouls on opponents per forty minutes. That sends Gipson to the free-throw line around four times per game, where he is only making 57.4% of his attempts.

Rounding out the starting five is three-point marksman Will Spradling (No. 55). Like McGruder, Spradling will have numerous screens set for him in the K-State motion offense, and he has the quick release and accuracy to make opponents pay. On the year, he has made more than 35% of his threes, and has taken more than 67% of his looks from behind the arc. Although the Longhorns are already going to have their hands full trying to shut down McGruder and Southwell, they also cannot afford to lose track of Spradling.

With conference play now in full swing, Coach Weber has shrunk his core rotation to eight players. Senior forward Jordan Henriquez (No. 21) is a familiar face to fans of Big 12 basketball, as his 6’11” frame has made him a defensive presence all four of his years in Manhattan. He has a lot of length — even for a guy that tall — and has great timing, making him a great shot-blocker in the middle.

It’s also worth noting that when Henriquez gets the ball in the post, teams might actually find success simply fouling him. The senior has made just 28.9% of his free throws this year, and is a 50% career shooter at the line.

Fellow senior Martavious Irving (No. 3) plays an important role as the team’s backup point guard, and also brings excellent perimeter defense to the table. Irving is also a threat to pop the three, and has shown no qualms about quickly taking one off the dribble when opponents are paying too much attention to McGruder and Spradling off the ball.

Sophomore forward Nino Williams (No. 11) was a highly touted recruit out of high school, but never found consistent playing time under Coach Martin. He is still just a role player at this point, but is now at least seeing the court every night and averaging 12.5 minutes per game in league play.

Although not a part of that core rotation, freshman forward D.J. Johnson (No. 50) could also see some meaningful minutes in this one. After hardly playing from mid-December to late January, he logged 20 minutes against Iowa State on Saturday and chipped in a block and two boards. At 6’8″ and 250 pounds, he already is an intimidating presence inside, and it looks like he can be a force in the Big 12 by the time his career is finished.

Keys to the game

1) Limit KSU’s offensive rebounds – Closing out defensive possessions with rebounds has been a problem for Texas all season, and that could unfortunately play a huge role in tonight’s game. The Wildcats are generally an average team when it comes to shooting the ball, but they crash the glass and earn second-chance points. The Longhorns allowed a smaller Texas Tech team to reclaim more than 48% of their missed shots on Saturday, and late-game offensive rebounds helped Baylor and West Virginia pull out overtime wins over Texas. Repeating those same mistakes tonight will eliminate any hopes of a Longhorn upset.

2) Communicate on defense – With the constant screening and cutting in Kansas State’s offense, the strong Longhorn defense is going to be tested tonight. Texas needs to recognize who the shooters are and avoid going under screens against them, while also being aware that players like McGruder and Southwell will exploit favorable matchups that can arise from switching screens. If Texas can play sound team defense, the score will be in the range that can give them a shot at pulling off the road win. If not, this Wildcat offense can make their half-court offense look like a clinic.

3) Take care of the basketball – The opening ten minutes of the Oklahoma game and the final minutes of the Kansas loss reminded Texas fans just how bad the turnover bug was for the Longhorns at the beginning of the year. While the youngsters have made vast improvements in that department, the hiccups tend to come back in waves, and often at the worst possible time. Kansas State forces quite a few mistakes with their defense, so the Longhorns must avoid coughing it up tonight. Not only will turnovers waste possessions, but they will often lead to runouts that will get a loud and intimidating Bramlage crowd whipped into even more of a frenzy.