On Wednesday, Texas started off its brutal three-week march of death on the right foot, winning a road game in Norman. Today they face a team that doesn’t look to be threatening based solely on record, but the truth is that the Iowa State Cyclones can be a dangerous ball club. And even when you look past the teams themselves and just examine the history, you find that the Longhorns are only 2-5 all-time in Hilton Coliseum, a gym that can be incredibly loud and unnerving when ‘Clone fans fill it up.

This is something of a “must-win” for the Horns, as that death march gets only tougher from here. The next five games for Texas are against teams all ranked 38th or better according to Ken Pomeroy’s RPI approximations. And while Iowa State has won all three home games in Big 12 play, this is the most winnable game over the next three weeks for Texas.

By the numbers

The Cyclones’ offense is fairly anemic, but their defense is solid enough that they can grind out wins without scoring many points. That defense has been even better at home for Iowa State, as they’ve held opponents to only 58 points per game in conference play. For comparison, they’ve allowed 76 points per game on the road in conference games, although that stat is still a little inflated as two of the three teams included were Kansas and Kansas State.

Iowa State also plays really good defense without letting its opponents get to the line. On the season, they have taken 424 shots from the charity stripe, yet only sent opponents there 348 times. According to Pomeroy, their defensive free-throw rate (FT attempts/FG attempts) is 15th-best in all of NCAA basketball. While this would seem to be a good thing for a Texas team that shoots poorly from the line, it also means that a huge part of D.J. Augustin‘s game will be missing from his repertoire. If he can’t drive to the rim and draw fouls, the defense could be less-inclined to help, limiting the number of open looks that D.J. can dish for.

Texas fans can expect a slow, grind-it-out game from the Cyclones. Their tempo is ranked in the bottom-third of NCAA D-1 schools, which allows them to keep the score low enough to steal victories. With the number of possessions limited, Texas cannot afford to jack up ill-advised shots early in possessions, and they absolutely must crash the offensive glass. If Iowa State can somehow keep the Longhorn offense within the 60-point range, they could have a shot today.

The starters

The key to the Iowa State offense is guard Wesley Johnson, a Texas kid who got away. He leads the team in scoring with 13.9 points per game, and the Cyclones often look like they’ve forgotten how to score when he’s not out there. He missed the beginning of the season with a foot injury and then re-aggravated it in the victory over Colorado, causing him to miss the game against Nebraska earlier this week. The Cyclones sputtered with Johnson in street clothes, and struggled even more when big man Jiri Hubalek was also on the bench.

Johnson is a difficult match-up for Texas, because he’s an off-guard who is 6-foot, 7-inches. Yes, you read that right. He’s got a full eight inches on the Longhorns’ own 2-guard, A.J. Abrams, meaning that Damion James will likely be tasked with guarding the prolific scorer. But when James is on the bench, other Longhorns will have a tough time with him. Gary Johnson gives up an inch or two, while Clint Chapman, Alexis Wangmene, or Connor Atchley aren’t agile enough to keep up with Johnson. Wes is going to get his points in this game, but it’s a question of how well the Longhorns can shut down the other role players for Iowa State.

The other key to Iowa State’s unsteady offense is the aforementioned Jiri Hubalek. He’s a big man from the Czech Republic who can give ‘Clone fans heart attacks. While he gets his points down low, he often fumbles the pass or rebounds, and sometimes misses point-blank shots that he has no business missing. He’s fitting in more comfortably with Coach McDermott’s system now, although early clashes with the new coach nearly led to Hubalek quitting after Wayne Morgan’s departure. Hubalek will definitely score in the paint, but the Texas bigs have faced much tougher competition down low, and they should fare well against him.

The player I’m most excited to see today is freshman Craig Brackins. He can do a little bit of everything, as he’s lethal from long range, can attack off the dribble, and has the body to play down low when he feels like it. If the Cyclones do happen to pull off an upset in this one, it could be Brackins getting hot from outside that makes the difference. Although he still needs some work, the biggest knock on his game is that at 6-10, he hangs out too far from the paint. His team is getting out-rebounded on the season, and they need his length inside. So far, he’s only grabbing five boards per game and that number really needs to go up for the ‘Clones to see more success.

The point guard for Coach McDermott is former hometown kid and former walk-on Bryan Peterson. He’s a good floor-general who doesn’t score very often, but he has a nice shot from outside when he takes it. On the season, he’s only 35.8% from behind the arc, but he is still not a guy you want to leave open. He’s not going to get the kinds of assists that Augustin racks up when driving to the lane, but Peterson keeps the offense running and is a really great story for announcers to talk about when their games are out of hand.

Rashon Clark is a senior forward for the Cyclones, and he’s a consistent, hard-nosed kid. He’s yet another Iowa State player who is really long, and is averaging nine points and five boards this year. Sometimes it seems like he doesn’t communicate as well on defense as the other Iowa State players, but his long arms make it easier for him to catch up from behind the play on the occasions when he gets out of position. He’s a quick slasher and has absolutely incredible hops, so if gets out in the open court, expect him to bring the house down with a monster jam.

Off the bench

Although Brackins is the freshman who starts for Iowa State, Diante Garrett is the point guard of the future in Ames. He’s got a ton of talent, but still needs to develop his body and his game for the college level. I have a feeling that in future years, fans of Texas and other Big 12 schools are going to be frustrated quite a few times by the Garrett/Brackins combo. For now, he’s earning a nice chunk of minutes and learning on the job. He doesn’t score often because his shooting percentage is always dipping towards the Mendoza line, but he’s got good basketball IQ and commands the floor when he’s in there.

The most important guy off the bench could be Alex Thompson, though. He’s another 6’10” forward, but he’s an absolute presence on defense. He’s been playing pretty well in conference games, but really showcased what kind of a game he could have with significant minutes when the Cyclones faced Oregon State. Yes, I realize that the Beavers are abysmal, but Thompson shot 55% from the field and had a 12/5 line in his 30 minutes on the court. Like Brackins, he should really rebound better for a guy his size, but when he’s in the game he definitely makes opponents think twice about driving the lane.

Sean Haluska eats some minutes at the guard position, but he’s more famous for having a talented brother than for anything he’s done thus far in Ames. Other than that, Coach McDermott throws in a few minutes here and there for the rest of his bloated bench, but none make any contributions of note.

What to look for

Texas is going to have a tough time getting fast breaks going against the ‘Clones. Their transition D is solid, as the team gets back in a hurry to not only cut off the fast break, but get set up in position to prevent a secondary break, as well. If Texas can force some turnovers, they should certainly try to grab the easy points, but should not force the issue if the Cyclones cut it off. As I previously mentioned, possessions will be limited in this one, so the Horns can’t throw away the extra ones by pressing too hard against a good transition D.

The resiliency that the Horns showed on Wednesday night in Norman will also be big here. Iowa State is a great defensive team, and Texas could start out shooting poorly once again as a result. They need to keep pressing on like they did against the Sooners, and eventually their talent should win out. The nice thing about Iowa State’s slow-down, grind-it-out game is that even if they grab a lead, the Longhorns should always be within striking distance. Over a forty-minute game, I like Texas’ odds to end up on top.

With the game being more of a half-court affair, will fans be treated to more time from Dexter Pittman? With Coach Barnes bringing Damion James off the bench in the last two, Pittman, Chapman, and Wangmene have seen more minutes. This could be a chance for Pittman to eat up some PT and chip in some points down low against the Cyclone frontcourt.

On a related note, will this mark the return of James to the starting lineup? Nobody else really matches up with Wes Johnson, so leaving him out there against a Longhorn defense without DaMo to start the game could prove costly. I’d like to see James back in the starting five and hassling Johnson for 36+ minutes. This also leads to the point that James cannot afford to get in foul trouble in this one.

For another look at the match-ups, check out the interview that CrossCyed of Clone Chronicles gave the good folks at Burnt Orange Nation today. CC is a quality blogger and knows this team very well, so be sure to give it a look.

While this one is on ABC, it’s a split-national telecast with the Washington State/USC tilt airing at the same time. Check your local listings to see if its on in your area. If it’s not, you can check it out on ESPN360.com, although I’ve never messed with that and can’t really tell you how it works.

I may try to head all the way back to Austin tonight, so the post-game might take a while in coming. If I happen to stop somewhere for the night, I’ll try to tap it out then. Otherwise, look for new content on Sunday evening.

Getting a little later start this morning than I’d anticipated, but I guess I needed to stock up on the sleep before the long drive. If I’m not completely exhausted when I get to Des Moines late tonight, I’ll try to wrap up the OU win. But even if I pass out before I get to that, check back Saturday morning for the Cyclone preview.

Checking in on this week’s new power rankings, Texas climbed five spots in ESPN’s poll, moving from narrowly unranked last week to the 12 slot this week. Meanwhile, Luke Winn found the Horns unworthy of a poll position. He’s got the Horns sitting at “17th,” claiming that a win over Kansas on Monday would move them into the top 10. You think?

I wanted to link this article for the UNC/Duke game, but the whole trip-to-Norman thing got in the way. As much as I loved the V-Tech students chanting “Eat shit, Paulus” a few weeks back, the folks over at Super, Scintillating, and Sarcastic have a pretty good take on why even Duke haters should snap for Paulus. And, you know…as long as the Blue Devils aren’t the 1-seed in a Texas bracket, perhaps I won’t root so fervently against them this year.

Anybody familiar with Ames or Des Moines? Got any places around there I should check out tomorrow while I’m in town? Bonus points for recommendations on the ISU campus, and points off for any suggestions involving corn.

It’s moments like these that I sometimes question my sanity. Rolling into Austin at 3 in the morning with a ten-hour shift calling my name at 5:30 A.M. Realizing I have to get in a car before the sun comes up tomorrow morning and drive 16 hours to Ames, Iowa by myself only to watch a game, check out their campus, and turn around to go back home. Looking at the hours of footage of the Cyclones I have saved on the DVR and wondering when exactly I’m supposed to sleep. These are the moments where I think maybe this is all just a little bit crazy.

But then I think about the incredible things I’ve experienced over the last season-and-a-half on this journey. Sixty-four consecutive games. Kenton Paulino’s buzzer-beater to go to the Elite Eight. The triple-OT thriller in Stillwater. Double-OT victory over the Aggies. A 72-hour round-trip adventure to Spokane, Washington that I’ll never forget. Thirty-plus games of seeing Kevin Durant. In person. Damion James’ dunk to silence the Pauley Pavilion crowd. These are the things that keep me going. Well, those things and a lot of energy drinks.

For now, I’ve got to try to cram in an hour or so of sleep, but I’ll get to the OU wrap later this afternoon. I’ve still got that ISU tape to watch and some service to do on the car, so there’s no telling when it will all get done. But check back here for more Texas basketball coverage before I hit I-35 yet again only 24 hours from now.

The Longhorns head to Norman tonight as they kick off the toughest stretch of their season. Six of the next seven games for the Longhorns come against teams in the Top 50 of the RPI, with four of the games coming on the road. While beating the Sooners will be no easy task, Texas can’t afford to fold in February, and a win today will start things off on the right note.

Unfortunately, tonight’s game is at 6 P.M., so that’s going to put a squeeze on the usual game preview. Here’s my best attempt at a down-and-dirty look at the game.

By the numbers

Oklahoma comes into this game as winners of three of their last four games, the sole defeat coming on Saturday against the Aggies in College Station. The Sooners are one game back of Texas in the conference standings and are in the mix for the third or fourth bye in Kansas City.

Offensively, the Sooners are a bit streaky and often go cold for long stretches. But when they are on, they really can click. Their offensive efficiency is 31st-best in the country according to Ken Pomeroy. And for a team that sometimes forces up a bunch of poor shots in a row, that tells you just how excellent they are during the hot streaks.

What keeps the Sooners in the games when they are going cold is a really solid defense, which checks in at 38th in DefEff rankings. Teams often jack up a ton of threes against the solid inside D of Oklahoma, but hopefully the Horns won’t feel married to the perimeter. It is important to attack the lane and draw fouls on the Sooner bigs…as long as A.J. Abrams and D.J. Augustin are the ones shooting the free throws. The nightmare scenario for Texas would be a game in which their threes aren’t falling and the guards refuse to dribble penetrate and draw the post players on defense.

The starters

It all flows through big man Blake Griffin, who will be starting his second game since a knee injury suffered at Kansas on January 14th. He returned only two weeks later and provided ridiculous numbers off the bench before returning to the starting five against College Station just a few days ago. But don’t think it’s going to hamper his game, because he hasn’t backed down an inch since rejoining the team. He’s still a threat for a double/double on a nightly basis, and when teams try to put multiple defenders on him, he’s a deft enough passer to find other big men Longar Longar and Taylor Griffin.

Austin Johnson runs the point, but is much more of a ball-control guard than one who likes to penetrate and score. He’s averaging eight points a game, two of which seem to come off of a back-door cut every game. The Sooners love to use a big to set the high screen for Johnson, who typically rolls to the basket wide open. In the five OU games I’ve watched this year, it has worked at least once against literally each opponent. Hopefully the Horns will be smart enough not to chase the screener out to nearly the three-point line, because the Griffin brothers aren’t long-range threats, and Longar is streaky from that far out.

Tony Crocker is one of three Sooners averaging more than 10 points per game, and he does it by putting the ball on the floor and attacking the basket. He’s also able to knock it down from outside, hitting 45% of his attempts from behind the arc. He’s a really long guard, checking in at 6’6″, so he’ll create some problems for whichever Longhorn is stuck with him.

Down low, Longar Longar has finally developed into a really scary player. He can still play excellent defense and block a shot into the mezzanine, but his offense is now a legitimate threat. Part of this is the addition of Blake Griffin to the lineup, drawing defenders away from the lanky center, but Longar has also practiced his shots and post moves. He can knock down jumpers, sink turnarounds from the baseline, and even make the defenders look silly with a set of moves leaving them behind the layup or dunk.

It seems like David Godbold has been in the OU backcourt even longer than Hollis Price, but this will actually be the last time the Horns ever face him in Norman. He’s crashing the boards really well from OU’s three-out, two-in sets, but is fortunately the lowest-scoring starter for Coach Jeff Capel. The Sooners aren’t rebounding very well for a team with such a solid frontcourt, so hopefully Texas can keep this guard off the glass and further exploit the rebounding advantage.

Off the bench

With Keith Clark academically ineligible this semester, Capel is left with a fairly short rotation. Guard Omar Leary can give some much-needed rest to the three starters, and is pretty damned good for a sixth man. He’s a JuCo transfer, so he’s ready to produce in his first season with the team. Leary can stick a three-pointer with a man right on him, but is also really quick off the dribble if defenders play in his face.

Blake’s big brother Taylor Griffin also gives some minutes in the frontcourt, but is really the only productive bench player Capel can use in the post. Freshman Cade Davis is still pretty raw at the forward position, but can grab a few rebounds and putbacks on occasion. If the Longhorns can get Longar and the Griffin brothers in foul trouble, it will really force the hand of Jeff Capel and the Sooners.

For now, we must get on the road, but be sure to tune in early tonight to catch this one. The game is airing on the Deuce and should be over just in time to watch that big one from Chapel Hill.

Virginia Tech (14-8 overall, 5-3 ACC) at NC State (14-7, 3-4) – 6 PM CST, ESPNU – The Wolfpack are quite possibly the most disappointing team of the year, but they are still in the mix for an at-large bid to the NCAAs. The key to their tournament push is the current stretch of nine games, six of which are on their home court. Tonight will certainly be a challenge for State though, as the V-Tech bigs will provide a good match-up for J.J. Hickson and Gavin Grant.

Michigan (5-16 overall, 1-8 Big Ten) at Ohio State (15-7, 6-3) – 6 PM CST, ESPN – Also known by its alternate title, “When Rivalry Week Goes Bad.” This might be an epic showdown on the gridiron, but until John Beilein gets his system and players in place, this series is going to be dominated by the Buckeyes.

#22 Florida (18-4 overall, 5-2 SEC) at #7 Tennessee (19-2, 6-1) – 8 PM CST, EPSN – The Baby Gators have made an incredible run to start the season, but they still have yet to record a truly marquee win. Thompson-Boling isn’t an easy place to steal a victory, but if Florida wants to loudly announce its presence as a legit young threat, escaping with an upset on the road would certainly do just that.

#11 Butler (19-2 overall, 8-2 Horizon) at Valparaiso (14-7, 5-4) – 8 PM CST, ESPN2 – The Bulldogs seem to be cruising through Horizon League play at this point, but their only two losses have both come on the road in conference play. Shawn Huff and the Crusaders hope to hand Butler a third tonight, but the senior-laden Bulldog squad is tough to rattle down the stretch.

Northern Iowa (14-8 overall, 6-5 MVC) at Creighton (15-6, 6-5) – 8 PM CST, ESPNU – It’s been an off year for both the Panthers and Jays, but a victory tonight could keep the winner in the hunt for second in the conference. Just three weeks ago, Creighton pulled off the 68-59 road win over NIU led by Nick Bahe’s 15/6 line. Tonight, the Panthers will be looking for tiny guard Jared Josten to lead the team to sweet revenge.

And here are the ESPN Full Court listings for those who are as addicted as I am…

South Florida (10-12 overall, 1-8 Big East) at #6 Georgetown (18-2, 8-1) – 6:30 PM CST – The Bulls live and die by the play of behemoth Kentrell Gransberry, but he’s having a tough time carrying the team all by himself. Against Georgetown on the road, USF might just want to roll over and play dead.

DePaul (9-12 overall, 4-5 Big East) at Providence (12-9, 3-6) – 6:30 PM CST – There’s a ton of good basketball being played night-in and night-out in the BEast, but this game certainly isn’t it. The Blue Demons have some raw talent but can’t ever seem to get it consistently clicking, while Providence has spent the last few weeks getting knocked around by the league’s upper-level teams. Ought to be quite the match-up.

#18 Texas A&M (18-4 overall, 4-3 Big 12) at Iowa State (13-9, 3-4) – 7 PM CST – It’s tough to say whether Hilton Coliseum will be rowdy for the ranked Aggies or if the rough conference start will keep Cyclone fans at home. If Iowa State actually has its true home-court advantage, Texas A&M’s well-documented road struggles could come into play once more. But I think it’s much more likely that the talented Aggie squad steamrolls the ‘Clones in this one.