Tip: 7 PM | TV: ESPN Full Court (KNVA in Austin) Last Saturday, Texas walked into Mizzou Arena riding high after a convincing win over a ranked St. Mary’s team. But by the time the afternoon was over, the Longhorns had been thoroughly whipped by the homestanding Tigers and were rewarded with a week in the cellar of the Big 12. After six days long days, Texas looks to bounce back in a home game against the Colorado Buffaloes, a team picked dead last in the conference by practically every major publication. The Buffs have turned something of a corner, though, and are buying into the defense-first program that Jeff Bzdelik is bringing to Boulder. Although CU fell behind early to A&M last week, they fought the rest of the way and kept the deficit pretty much the same the rest of the way. And just two days later, the Buffs pulled off an ugly upset of Nebraska at home on Tuesday night. Texas should not have any problems with Colorado tonight, but the Buffaloes are not quite the lame-duck that most had anticipated at the start of the season. They are going to eke out a few more wins in conference play than they should, and it’s the work of their new coach that is making the difference.
New coach Jeff Bzdelik has CU making strides By the numbers The Buffs are ranked 145th in the nation in Ken Pomeroy’s RPI approximations, with one of their nine wins coming against D-II Colorado Christian. Their efficiency numbers are roughly middle-of-the-pack, with an OfEff of 103.4 and a 99.3 DefEff. Texas should not have trouble scoring against the Buffs, but the porous Longhorn defense could make Colorado deceptively good. As mentioned earlier, Bzdelik wants the Buffs to think defense first, and his 2-3 and match-up zones are surprisingly good for a bottom-feeding team in a power conference. The zone allows CU to slow down the game to a pace that will allow them to steal games they should not win by taking possessions away from the more talented teams. Colorado is not only a patient defensive team, but also very deliberate on the offensive side of things as well. They often take 25 to 30 seconds per possession, working it around in a spread offense built on cuts and screens. This slow-down approach is underscored by their tempo stats, which have Colorado slotted as 293rd-fastest in the country with only 64 possessions per game. The starters Coach Bzdelik runs a guard-heavy lineup, as the offense is concentrated around the perimeter and keys on a big man setting screens in the high post. That big man is Marcus King-Stockton, who has started the last two games for Colorado after beginning the year on the bench. Stockton has a serviceable jump hook, but will be used mostly to free up the guards with his picks and also to pull a big defender out of the lane.
Richard Roby is still the leader for Colorado Guard Richard Roby is still the star for Colorado, and is leading the team in scoring for the fourth time in the four years he’s spent in Boulder. He’s second on the team in minutes, but is tops in scoring with 16.2 per game. Despite playing mostly on the perimeter, the 6-foot, 6-inch Roby is the team’s leading rebounder, although that isn’t saying much for a Colorado team that is absolutely abysmal on the glass. He’s a dual threat, as he can hit the three-ball but can also easily beat guards off the dribble if they play him too closely. Roby’s accuracy behind the arc has improved dramatically after a junior year in which he struggled, and he now sits at 37.3% BTA on the season. Marcus Hall runs the point for Coach Bzdelik and leads the squad in minutes played. He’s got quick hands on defense and can also hit from three-point range with regularity, shooting at a 34.7% clip so far. Austin native Xavier Silas will make his first appearance back in Austin as a member of the Buffs, and the sophomore comes into this one playing some good ball. The Stephen F. Austin grad is the third-leading scorer on the team with 10.7 per game and is playing over 31 minutes per contest. As with the other guards, Silas is a threat from long range, and at 6’5″, he will get some open looks over the short Texas backcourt. Freshman Cory Higgins rounds out the starting lineup for Colorado. He’s a promising young player with NBA pedigree, as he is the son of former big leaguer Rod Higgins, who is now the GM for the Charlotte Bobcats. Higgins is another quick guard, but struggles from the line. With many of the Colorado buckets coming off of backdoor cuts and moves into the paint, denying Higgins an easy look by fouling could often be the right approach. The bench Colorado has four walk-ons listed on the roster, and truly only run seven or eight deep. Jermyl Jackson-Wilson plays the same role on the team as Stockton, and was actually the starter prior to his demotion two games ago. Guard Levi Knutson is the three-point specialist, hitting 48.6% of his shots from behind the arc. Knutson is 6-foot, 4-inches, so he also will have the height advantage over the Texas guards to get off clean looks if he wants them. What to look for Colorado is an absolutely horrendous team on the glass, and Texas needs to take advantage of that in this one. With possessions at a premium in this contest, the Horns will need any second and third chances they can earn through rebounding, and limiting the Buffs to one-and-dones will definitely slash the slim chances of an upset tonight. Texas A&M held Colorado to only 16 rebounds in the entire game last Saturday, and although Texas is not as dominant as the Aggies inside, I forsee them winning the battle on the glass easily. One thing that was noticeably lacking in the Colorado defense was a quick reaction to ball movement when a quality big man is in the paint. Texas doesn’t have an intimidating post presence, but if Dexter Pittman is in the game for extended periods of time, it could work in their favor. The Buffs often doubled down on Aleks Maric and DeAndre Jordan when in their match-up zone, leaving players wide open on the wing for three. If Colorado happens to use this approach against Pittman, post feeds followed by quick kicks out to the perimeter should result in a ton of open looks. The big albatrosses in the past few games have been free throw woes, poor defense, and the disappearance of Connor Atchley and Justin Mason. With this game seemingly a lock, it will be important for the Horns to use this as a full-speed practice and address those issues. A win is certainly a win, but if those problems are still apparent in this game, it is very bad news for the tough dates coming up later on the schedule. This one is televised in a lot of markets across Texas — and randomly in Columbia, Missouri — so be sure to check out the affiliate list from TexasSports.com for listings in your area. |
