TEAM W L THIS WEEK NEXT WEEK Kansas 5 0 W vs. Baylor, 78-68 Sat at TCU Wed vs. Iowa State Sat at Texas Kansas State 4 2 L at Texas, 67-64 Sat at Iowa State Tue vs. Texas Tech Sat at West Virginia Oklahoma 4 2 W vs. TCU, 77-69 Sat at Texas Tech Mon vs. Oklahoma State Sat at Iowa State Texas 4 2 W vs. Kansas State, 67-64 Sat at Baylor Sat vs. Kansas Oklahoma State 3 2 Sat vs. West Virginia Mon at Oklahoma Sat vs. Baylor West Virginia 3 3 W vs. Texas Tech, 87-81 Sat at Oklahoma State Tue at Baylor Sat vs. Kansas State Iowa State 2 3 Sat vs. Kansas State Wed at Kansas Sat vs. Oklahoma Texas Tech 2 4 L at West Virginia, 87-81 Sat vs. Oklahoma Tue at Kansas State Sat vs. TCU Baylor 1 4 L at Kansas, 78-68 Sat vs. Texas Tue vs. West Virginia Sat at Oklahoma State TCU 0 6 L at Oklahoma, 77-69 Sat vs. Kansas Sat at Texas Tech

The big picture

Before conference play began, conventional wisdom held that Kansas was still the favorite in the Big 12, but that the Jayhawks could face stiff tests from Baylor and Oklahoma State. Even Iowa State emerged as a contender with its undefeated start, which included a win over Michigan and a road victory against BYU. With Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Texas all exceeding pre-season expectations, the league appeared to be deeper than ever, one in which the teams would beat each other up all season long.

The league certainly has proven to be a meat grinder, with every road win a valuable commodity. But while Oklahoma State and Baylor have both suffered losses in the first weeks of conference play, and Iowa State has stalled in a three-game losing streak, the Jayhawks have once again risen above the fray. With the teams now one-third of the way through the Big 12’s double round-robin, Kansas has a 1.5-game lead over its closest competitors, and Ken Pomeroy’s computers predict that KU will finish the season a full three games ahead of Oklahoma State.

At nearly this exact same point in last year’s conference race, I wrote about how Kansas had already turned it into a three-team battle. The Jayhawks were favored to win every game from that point on, and I even suggested that, “with odds like that, it’s hard to believe that KU could drop three games down the stretch.” Just four games later, I was already wrong, as the Jayhawks went on an unprecedented three-game skid that had Coach Bill Self saying his team that lost at TCU “was the worst team Kansas ever put on the floor, since Dr. Naismith was there.”

In the spirit of learning from past mistakes, I won’t go so far as to make any bold predictions about the Jayhawks in late January of this year. But, I will point out that any team that wants to catch Kansas will have to make up quite a bit of ground. Not only has Kansas already built a 1.5-game lead, but the Jayhawks have done it while also surviving two of the league’s tougher road tests at intimidating Hilton Coliseum and against a very OU team in Norman. The Jayhawks have also dispatched two of the presumed contenders at home, knocking off both Oklahoma State and Baylor in the last week. While road games in Manhattan, Austin, and Stillwater could still prove to be stumbling blocks, unless the Jayhawks trip up in all three of those games, somebody is going to have to defy the odds at Allen Fieldhouse.

Today’s games

Texas at Baylor; Saturday, 12:45 P.M. CT (Big 12 Network/ESPN3)

LRT’s full preview of the Texas/Baylor game will be available on Saturday morning.

Kansas State at Iowa State; Saturday, 12:45 P.M. CT (Big 12 Network/ESPN3)

On January 6th, Iowa State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin had a perfect combined record of 43-0. Over the following week, each of the teams finally fell from the ranks of the unbeatens….and they just kept losing. The three teams combined to lose 10 straight games once their unblemished marks disappeared, with Ohio State’s victory against Illinois on Thursday night finally breaking the group’s slide.

Since losing at Texas last Saturday, Iowa State has enjoyed an entire week off to refocus their efforts. Already in the midst of a three-game losing streak, the Cyclones are about to embark on a very tough four-game stretch against ranked opponents. Fortunately Iowa State is at home for two of those games, in an arena where they have posted a 17-3 record in conference play over the last two-plus seasons.

On paper, Saturday’s matchup with Kansas State seems to favor the Cyclones. Kansas State struggles to score outside the paint, while Iowa State’s interior defense is one of the best in the country. The Wildcats get most of their points from offensive rebounds or dribble penetration by Jevon Thomas and Marcus Foster. Unfortunately for K-State, the Cyclones actually rebound very well on the defensive end, and their length on the perimeter allows them to play conservatively and stifle dribble penetration.

The Wildcats have kept themselves in games all season long with a tough defense that keeps scores low enough for their average offense to keep up. In Iowa State’s high-powered offense, KSU is going to find one of its toughest tests yet. The Wildcats have to eliminate transition opportunities for Iowa State and hope that Thomas Gipson and Nino Williams can reclaim enough missed shots on the other end to keep them in the game.

West Virginia at Oklahoma State; Saturday, 1 P.M. CT (ESPN2)

The Mountaineers have yet to beat a team that isn’t below them in the standings, but they did give the Cowboys a scare when these two teams met in Morgantown just a few weeks ago. Terry Henderson went crazy from behind the arc in that game, knocking down five of his seven three-point attempts. In the end, it was a last-second three from Oklahoma State’s Markel Brown that sealed the deal, keeping the Cowboys from a crippling 0-2 start.

Henderson wasn’t able to recapture the magic from that performance in West Virginia’s next two games, but he game back with a vengeance earlier this week. In a sharpshooter’s battle with Texas Tech’s Dusty Hannahs, Henderson drilled 5-of-6 from long range in an 87-81 WVU win on Wednesday. The Mountaineers will need another solid performance from their X-factor to win in Stillwater, and they must maintain their Top 10 turnover percentage against an OSU team that repeatedly forces mistakes by visiting teams.

Oklahoma at Texas Tech; Saturday, 3 P.M. CT (Big 12 Network/ESPN Full Court/ESPN3)

The Baylor Bears were given a reminder just how hard it can be to win on the High Plains when they fell victim to Texas Tech in Lubbock last week. Although United Spirit Arena hasn’t been full in years, the students still show up for big games and that energy has proven useful in some massive upsets over the last few seasons. Add in the experience of new coach Tubby Smith, and the road trip to Tech is going to be a much dicier proposition for Big 12 opponents this year. The fans are planning a “White Out” to greet Oklahoma in this one, but the Sooners have already proven to be road warriors in victories at Texas and Baylor.

The Sooners will have to prevent Tech from dominating the offensive glass and they will have to lock down Hannahs, who is 9-for-9 on threes in his last two games. The Red Raiders, meanwhile, will have a hard time slowing down an OU offense that seems to have a different hero step up every night. Cameron Clark gets most of the pub, but it’s been Buddy Hield who has emerged as the Robin to his Batman in Big 12 play. The sophomore from the Bahamas is averaging more than 18 points per game against Big 12 opponents and posted offensive ratings over 118 in four of the six contests.

Kansas at TCU; Saturday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPNU)

Kansas fans remember the team’s most recent visit to TCU all too well. The Horned Frog victory in 2013 was probably the most unexpected upset of the year in college hoops, and it became the second defeat of a three-game losing streak, something that had not been seen in Lawrence since 2005. You can be sure that Coach Self and the upperclassmen will have the Jayhawk freshmen ready for this one.

That’s an unfortunate thing for a TCU team that is already slogging through a terrible Big 12 campaign. The Horned Frog offense is ranked 292nd out of 351 Division I teams in adjusted efficiency, and it’s only been worse since stepping up to face conference foes. TCU ranks dead last in league games for offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage and turnover percentage, and they rank seventh in offensive rebounding percentage. The only offensive mark that even puts them in the top half is their free-throw rate, which measures how frequently they get to the line. Unfortunately, even though TCU is fourth-best in conference play when it comes to earning free throws, they are again dead last in actual free-throw percentage, making less than 60% of their attempts.

If one paragraph of awful stats wasn’t enough, I leave you with one final number regarding TCU’s nightmare season. With 12 games still left to go, Pomeroy already gives the Horned Frogs a 20% chance to finish winless in the Big 12. Their best opportunities to steal a victory come in home games against Baylor, Texas, and Oklahoma, all contests in which TCU still only has a 23% chance to win.

The Texas Longhorns took a major step towards the NCAA tournament with Saturday afternoon’s win over Iowa State. With the victory, the Horns finally have the kind of win on their résumé that will hold cachet with the Selection Committe roughly two months from now. Even with Iowa State now on a three-game losing streak, the Cyclones are still ranked 10th in the all-important RPI. The victory was the first for Texas against the RPI Top 50, a data point that the committee weighs heavily when comparing Team A to Team B in order to dole out bids and nail down the S-curve.

One win, however, does not make a tournament-worthy team. The Longhorns will have to snag some more quality victories to keep themselves in the discussion, but fortunately will have numerous opportunities, as they compete in the nation’s top RPI-rated conference. Texas is in the midst of a four-game stretch against ranked opponents, all of whom are currently slotted 36th or better in the RPI. With the conference so deep this season, those types of schedule stretches are the norm rather than the exception; Kansas and Oklahoma both just completed their own streaks of four games against ranked opponents, as well. While the Longhorns could earn some of those quality wins on the road, the nature of home court in college basketball means that it will be decidedly easier for them to score some scalps at home.

Tonight, Kansas State provides yet another opportunity for Texas to pad its portfolio. The matchup is practically even, with Ken Pomeroy’s computers giving the Horns a 67-64 edge on their home floor. Texas let a golden opportunity slip away when Oklahoma escaped the Frank Erwin Center with a three-point win on the opening night of conference play. If the Horns want to keep their bubble prospects strong, they cannot afford to let another quality win slip away tonight.

The preview

I’ve toyed with the idea of a Twitter preview a few times this season when real-life time crunches pushed back my publication times much later than I preferred. Tonight, I’m going to give it a whirl and see how it goes. I could write a few thousand words on these K-State Wildcats, and I’ll do exactly that when the Longhorns face them on February 8th, instead of posting the usual, abbreviated preview that I typically use for the second half of the Big 12’s double round-robin. For tonight’s game, however, check out the Longhorn Road Trip Twitter timeline during the five o’clock hour for pre-game numbers, keys, and player notes. For posterity’s sake, I’ll embed them here on the website after the fact.

Until then, amigos…

Texas is back in action this afternoon, hosting a Top 10 opponent at the Drum. The Horns are coming off one of their most impressive performances of the season, a convincing road win in which they stifled the West Virginia offense and scored at will on the other end. UT’s defense held the Mountaineers to their lowest offensive efficiency mark of the season, allowing just 0.936 points per possession.

The Texas defense will need another strong performance this afternoon against an Iowa State squad that has the 26th-most efficient offense in the nation. The Cyclones get down the court in a hurry and find open shooters with just one or two passes, often scoring before their opponents even know what’s happened.

This game is an important opportunity for the Longhorns, who will likely be battling on the NCAA bubble all season long. In Joe Lunardi’s Thursday Bracketology update, UT was the last team left out of the field of 68. The bubble is just a bit smaller this season, as the formation of the American Athletic Conference means that there’s one less at-large bid available.

Texas is currently ranked 46th in the RPI, but are lacking any wins against teams ranked in the RPI Top 50. Thanks to North Carolina’s swoon in ACC play, the Tar Heels have slid to 53rd, leaving Texas with an 0-4 mark against the RPI Top 50.

Fortunately, the Big 12 is the top league as ranked by RPI, and the Horns will have an additional 10 chances to knock off a team in that important Top 50 group. Obviously, it’s easier to upset any team at home than on the road, and that’s especially true when talking about teams like Iowa State, Kansas State, and Kansas, who have tremendous home-court advantages. If the Horns want to finish at least .500 in league play and maintain an NCAA-worthy résumé, they will have to earn some wins at home against the Big 12’s top teams.

By the numbers

Iowa State’s aforementioned efficient offense is a quick-strike unit that can easily exploit even the smallest mistakes made by opposing defenses. The Cyclones play at the 16th-fastest tempo in Division I, and they boast the 7th-quickest offensive possessions, averaging just 14.7 seconds on the offensive end. Iowa State not only attacks in transition, but also repeatedly scores on the secondary break by finding open men when the defense does manage to stop the ball. The Cyclones are very disciplined when they run the floor, staying in their lanes and getting to spots where they can wait for open looks, or cutting to the rim on the weak side.

Defensively, Iowa State’s numbers are even better. The Cyclones have the 18th-most efficient defense in the country, allowing just 0.929 adjusted points per possession. They have a lot of length on the perimeter, which allows them to sag off and defend the interior, while still being able to close out on shooters for contested jumpers. As a result, Iowa State has a fantastic two-point defense and hardly ever sends opponents to the line. With the Cyclone D already set inside, driving guards have to pass it off, take a contested shot, or barrel forward and draw offensive fouls.

In Big 12 play, Iowa State’s defense has also started forcing mistakes. The Cyclones hardly ever forced turnovers in the non-conference slate, but are tops in the conference with a 23% defensive turnover percentage in four league games. That increase in turnovers has helped to offset a decrease in defensive rebounding, as the smaller Cyclone roster has given up more second chances now that they are battling the size of Big 12 teams.

Meet the Cyclones

An Iowa State name that most Big 12 fans will already know is that of Georges Niang (No. 31), a matchup nightmare that could best be described as a point forward. Although Niang doesn’t run the point, he has the ballhandling skills to do so, is an excellent passer, and can get to the rack by driving from the perimeter.

Niang doesn’t have the speed to blow by defenders, but he can pull opposing forwards away from the bucket, put the ball on the floor, and use smooth spin moves to beat them to the rim. When faced with smaller defenders, Coach Hoiberg loves to isolate him on the block, where Niang can easily score over both shoulders.

If Niang wasn’t already enough of a matchup problem for opponents, the Cyclones went and added graduate transfer DeAndre Kane (No. 50) to run the point. A 6’4″ guard, Kane has an aggressive streak that gets him to the rim repeatedly and makes him a handful on the glass. Kane always has a head of steam in transition, where his speed and strength make him tough to slow down. Even when he’s stopped on the break or on the drive, he makes excellent passes to set up teammates. And if opponents sag off to take away his driving ability, Kane can knock down the three, as his 35.9% success rate proves.

The former Marshall player has been putting up ridiculous numbers all season, but he has earned a lot of attention with his stats in Big 12 play. Through four games, Kane is averaging 22.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 3.5 steals. While Iowa State’s pace means that he has a few more possessions to earn those stats, the numbers are still staggering.

Freshman Matt Thomas (No. 21) had started every game this season before coming off the bench in Monday’s loss to Kansas. Thomas came to Ames with the reputation of a sharpshooter from his high school days in Wisconsin, but he has not taken too many shots in his first year at ISU. He’s only used 16% of the team’s shots when he’s on the floor, but is reliable enough as a spot-up guy, having knocked down 33% of his threes.

Sophomore Naz Long (No. 15) is the man who took Thomas’ starting spot on Monday night, and he’s the team’s only lights-out option from beyond the arc. Under Hoiberg, Iowa State has historically been a team that can bury you with threes, but this year’s team is only average with a 34.3% mark from long range. Long is the main reason that percentage isn’t worse, as he’s leading the team in both three-point attempts (72) and percentage (44.4%).

On the wing, senior Melvin Ejim (No. 3) is a good shooter and quick slasher who can be tough to stay in front of. His 35% three-point mark keeps defenders honest and helps him use head fakes to get space for drives to the lane or one-dribble pull-up jumpers just inside the arc. Ejim posted some phenomenal rebounding numbers as a junior, stats that were made even more impressive when considering he’s just 6’6″. This year, those numbers have been cut nearly in half, with Melvin’s rebounding percentages not even cracking the Top 500 on either end of the court.

Although Dustin Hogue (No. 22) is also 6’6″, his mindset is more consistent with that of a power forward. Hogue is always scrapping inside for boards, and his 22.6% defensive rebounding rate ranks him in the Top 100 nationally. He is also the team’s best offensive rebounder and boasts a nice shooting percentage because of how many easy looks he earns for himself with hard work on the glass. Even when he’s not getting second-change points, he has the skills to get good opportunities inside, despite being undersized.

The Iowa State bench is very short, with no options to back up Niang, Ejim, or Hogue. Freshman guard Monte Morris (No. 11) is the final player in the core, seven-man rotation, and he averages just over 22 minutes per game. Morris has speed and good handles, but can sometimes look a little too hyped-up and jittery when he’s trying to dribble penetrate. Morris also appears to have a pretty nice three-point stroke, but doesn’t have much of a sample size on which to judge. The freshman has made nearly 39% of his threes, but is averaging less than one make per game.

Keys to the game

1) Dominate the glass – Iowa State’s defense forces opponents into taking contested jumpers, which typically means a lot of missed shots. Texas has done a good job reclaiming their misses this year and turning those into points, while the Cyclones have struggled on the defensive glass in conference play. If the Longhorns aren’t exploiting that advantage and earning second chances against an ISU team that will force a lot of misses, they will have a hard time keeping up on the scoreboard today.

2) Knock down threes – With the Cyclones sagging into the paint and taking away Texas’ interior game, it means that the Longhorns are going to have to knock down their open threes. Oklahoma found a lot of success with the drive-and-kick in their win over Iowa State last Saturday. The Longhorns need to do the same this afternoon, with Damarcus Croaker and Martez Walker playing the role of spot-up shooter. Texas can also probably find some success with Jonathan Holmes and Connor Lammert utilizing their pick-and-pop skills.

3) Don’t over-penetrate – Javan Felix and Isaiah Taylor have both made their share of mistakes this season by driving against set defenses and getting themselves into trouble. While Texas will need both Felix and Taylor to be aggressive this afternoon, they have to be smart about reading what the defense is giving them. If not, it will result in senseless turnovers that will fuel Iowa State’s transition game.

4) Maintain poise – In Iowa State’s 14-0 start, eight of those wins came after the Cyclones dug out of a hole of at least seven points. Thanks to their ability to score in a hurry, it doesn’t take long for the Cyclones to steal momentum and erase deficits. The Longhorns are going to have to weather a few runs from Iowa State today if they want to pull off the upset, so they have to maintain composure when the Cyclones inevitably get on a roll.

TEAM W L LAST WEEK THIS WEEK Kansas 2 0 W at Oklahoma, 90-83 W vs. Kansas State, 86-60 Mon at Iowa State Sat vs. Oklahoma State Iowa State 2 1 W vs. Baylor, 87-72 L at Oklahoma, 87-82 Mon vs. Kansas Sat at Texas Kansas State 2 1 W at TCU, 65-47 L at Kansas, 86-60 Tue vs. Oklahoma Sat vs. West Virginia West Virginia 2 1 W at Texas Tech, 89-86 (OT) L vs. Oklahoma State, 73-72 Mon vs. Texas Sat at Kansas State Oklahoma 2 1 L vs. Kansas, 90-83 W vs. Iowa State, 87-82 Tue at Kansas State Sat at Baylor Oklahoma State 2 1 W vs. Texas, 87-74 W at West Virginia, 73-72 Wed vs. TCU Sat at Kansas Baylor 1 1 L at Iowa State, 87-72 W vs. TCU, 88-62 Wed at Texas Tech Sat vs. Oklahoma Texas 1 2 L at Oklahoma State, 87-74 W vs. Texas Tech, 67-64 Mon at West Virginia Sat vs. Iowa State TCU 0 3 L vs. Kansas State, 65-47 L at Baylor, 88-62 Wed at Oklahoma State Sat vs Texas Tech Texas Tech 0 3 L vs. West Virginia, 89-86 (OT) L at Texas, 67-64 Wed vs. Baylor Sat at TCU

The big picture

The Kansas Jayhawks took care of one challenger to the throne in convincing fashion on Saturday, walloping their in-state rivals by 26 points. Although the victory sent a clear message as to who reigns supreme in the Sunflower State, Kansas will have to survive a tough eight-day stretch to claim the same dominance in the Big 12. Over their next three games, the Jayhawks will travel to Iowa State before hosting Oklahoma State and Baylor at raucous Phog Allen Fieldhouse.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma remained just a half-game behind the Jayhawks by posting big wins in their Saturday games. The Cowboys needed a last-second three from Markel Brown to escape Morgantown with a victory, yet another reminder that every road win will be precious in a loaded Big 12 this season.

Oklahoma gave Iowa State the same memo in Norman, knocking the Cyclones from the ranks of the national unbeatens with an 87-82 win. The Sooners were given a dangerous five-game stretch to open conference play, but have so far navigated the minefields to a 2-1 start. Two tough road tests await OU at Kansas State and Baylor this week; survive those, and the Sooners will have proven to be legitimate contenders for a conference crown.

Weekday games

Texas at West Virginia; Monday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPNU)

LRT’s full preview of the Texas/West Virginia game is available here.

Kansas at Iowa State; Monday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPN)

Tonight, fans at Hilton Coliseum will have revenge on their minds as the Kansas Jayhawks visit the Iowa State Cyclones. Last year, the teams played a thrilling overtime classic that was ultimately won by KU, but the victory was overshadowed by a late game no-call that Cyclone fans won’t soon forget. With Iowa State ahead by two and just five seconds left in the game, Elijah Johnson collided with ISU’s Georges Niang while trying to drive to the hoop for a tying bucket. The play didn’t result in a whistle, although fans wanted a charge call. Instead it was Niang who was whistled when he held Johnson while trying to rebound the missed shot, and EJ sunk the ensuing free throws to force an extra period.

Two days later, the conference office “acknowledge[d] that officiating errors were made at the end of regulation.” The damage was obviously done by that point, and Kansas went on to share the league crown with Kansas State. Even though the result didn’t prevent Iowa State from competing for the title — they finished three games behind the Jayhawks and Wildcats — the memory still stings the Ames faithful. With Iowa State’s DeAndre Kane reportedly ready to play after injuring his ankle at the end of Saturday’s loss to OU, the Cyclones should give KU and the scorching-hot Wayne Selden quite a battle.

Oklahoma at Kansas State; Tuesday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPN2)

The Sooners were one of the surprise teams in the Big 12 during non-conference play, and they’ve continued to surprise in league play. Although OU couldn’t pull off the home upset against Kansas, they were able to hold serve against Iowa State and are now right in the middle of a very deep Big 12 pack.

Buddy Hield has emerged as an unstoppable force for the Sooners as Oklahoma’s opponents focus their energy on containing senior Cameron Clark. The sophomore from the Bahamas went medieval on Iowa State from long range, knocking down 6-of-12 during a 22-point performance. In three Big 12 contests, he’s averaging 20.7 points per game and finished just shy of a 62% effective field goal mark.

With Hield on fire and the Sooner offense clicking along at 1.177 adjusted points per possession, the stout Kansas State defense will have its hands full. The Wildcats currently boast the 13th-best defense in terms of adjusted efficiency, but their offense has lagged behind for much of the year. With newly-eligible freshman Jevon Thomas injecting a spark from the bench and Marcus Foster slicing through opposing defenses, Kansas State might finally be putting it together on that end of the court.

TCU at Oklahoma State; Wednesday, 7 P.M. CT (Big 12 Network/ESPN Full Court/ESPN3)

Teams often have to avoid falling into the trap of looking ahead to huge games, but that probably won’t be a problem for Oklahoma State against TCU on Wednesday night. The Cowboys will face a massive test when they travel to Lawrence on Saturday, but should first get a chance to rest their small core rotation in an easy home game against TCU.

Baylor at Texas Tech; Wednesday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPNU)

While TCU is still the league doormat, Texas Tech is much improved, despite returning almost all of the team that went 3-15 in the Big 12 last year. Baylor still shouldn’t have major problems against the Red Raiders, but many league foes have been surprised in Lubbock over the last few years.

Tech has done very well on the offensive glass this season, but could find that difficult against a formidable Baylor front line. However, if the Red Raiders can manage to hold their own and extend some possessions with offensive boards, they might be able to keep things close enough to make it interesting down the stretch. With Baylor playing at a glacial pace of just 64.1 possessions per game, it certainly increases the odds that lesser teams can hang around for longer than expected.

The Big 12 was widely thought to be a three-team league before the season tipped off in November. Kansas and Oklahoma State were the clear-cut favorites, and in fact were tied atop the pre-season poll of the conference’s coaches. Baylor was predicted to be just a step behind them, with the rest of the league not expected to make much noise. The Mountaineers and Longhorns, who finished seventh and eighth in last year’s standings, were predicted to hold steady in those slots this year.

As it turns out, the league is much deeper and tougher than even its own coaches could have predicted. The top eight teams in the Big 12 are all ranked in the top 65 of Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, with three in the top twelve. Every road game is going to be tough to win, as Oklahoma State learned in Manhattan and Morgantown on the last two Saturdays.

Unfortunately, for the Longhorns, a road win against a favored team is essentially a must-have at this point. After losing their home conference opener to Oklahoma, Texas now has to steal one back on the road to stay in the hunt for a .500 league record. Tonight’s trip to West Virginia is one of their best opportunities to make up for that loss to the Sooners, but escaping the mountains with a win will still be a tall order.

By the numbers

Like Texas, West Virginia has bounced back well from a dismal campaign in 2012-13. The team’s 10-6 mark can be a bit misleading, as four of the losses came by five points or less, with a fifth coming in a 70-63 neutral-court decision against still-undefeated Wisconsin.

The Mountaineers have the nation’s 32nd best offense in terms of Pomeroy’s adjusted efficiency, scoring 1.137 points per possession, up significantly from last year’s 1.026 mark. They shoot the ball fairly well, but it’s their ball control and offensive rebounding numbers that make it so hard for opponents to keep them from scoring. West Virginia boasts the nation’s eighth-best turnover percentage, coughing it up on just 14% of their possessions. They also do a solid job extending possessions by reclaiming 34.9% of their missed shots, a stat that ranks 83rd in Division I.

West Virginia is also extremely dangerous from beyond the arc, knocking down nearly 40% of their threes on the season. They move the basketball very quickly and have a handful of quick, slashing guards who can drive and kick to wide-open teammates on the perimeter. Five different Mountaineers in the core rotation have made at least 37.5% of their long-range looks, with three of them north of the 40% mark.

Defensively, WVU is just a bit ahead of the national average, with most of their tempo-free statistics clustered around the mean. Their weakest defensive number is actually on the glass, where the Mountaineers allow opponents to win back 32.7% of their missed shots. For a Texas team that typically dominates on the offensive glass, that could mean a nice chunk of second-chance points.

Meet the Mountaineers

West Virginia has two of the league’s top five scorers, which is even more impressive when you consider that the team plays at only the fifth-fastest tempo in the ten team league, and they play considerably slower than the likes of OU, Texas, and Iowa State. Sophomore guard Eron Harris (No. 10) is second in the league with 18.1 points per game, and he’s doing it from all over the court.

Harris takes more than 28% of his team’s shots when he’s on the floor, and with an effective field goal percentage above 56%, it’s easy to see why. He can knock down the midrange jumper, has the speed and a quick first step to repeatedly get him to the rim, and he’s drilled nearly 43% of his three-pointers on the year.

Point guard and former Dayton Flyer Juwan Staten (No. 3) is second on the team and fifth in the Big 12 in scoring. Like Harris, he can easily get to the rack, but his jump shot isn’t quite as reliable. Although Staten scores much more than most point guards, he still has excellent court vision and repeatedly sets up his teammates when his slashing ability draws defensive help. His impressive assist rate of 31.3% is currently ranked 65th in the nation.

Even though they often don’t need the help, West Virginia frequently springs its guards with high ball screens, which makes it even harder for opponents to keep up with Staten, Harris, and the like. Even if a team can rotate and provide help to cut off the driving lanes, West Virginia’s stable of great outside shooters is often waiting to drill a trey. One of those marksmen is Terry Henderson (No. 15), a 37.5% three-point shooter who has logged a pair of triples in each of his Big 12 games this year.

Inside, West Virginia is already seeing great production from freshman Devin Harris (No. 5), a begoggled 6’9″ kid out of Cincinnati. Harris is ranked 100th in Division I with a 22.6% defensive rebounding rate, and is ranked 202nd with an 11.4% mark on the offensive glass. He also has a sound midrange jumper and has no problem facing up opposing forwards and taking them off the bounce. Although he’s 6’9″, Harris looks more like a swingman when he has the ball in his hands near the arc, and his diverse skillset makes him a tough matchup that can spread the floor for his slashing teammates.

Rounding out the starting five is junior Kevin Noreen (No. 34), a glue guy whose contributions typically don’t show up on the stat sheet. He sets solid screens to free up the team’s shooters and driving guards, and he passes extremely well, especially out of the high post. His good cuts and quick passes are a big part of West Virginia’s success when they face a zone.

Off the bench, Puerto Rican product Gary Browne (No. 14) is the team’s primary option in the backcourt. He is yet another three-point threat for West Virginia, but is only playing about 20 minutes per game.

Browne isn’t the only international talent on the roster, as French-born Rémi Dibo (No. 0) arrived this season from Casper College in Wyoming. Dibo is another stretch four who has made nearly 42% of his threes. His decision-making could still use some work, as he sometimes tries to do too much with the ball and ends up turning it over.

Rounding out the rotation is freshman forward Nathan Adrian (No. 11). A fan favorite who played his high school ball in Morgantown, Adrian shows a lot of promise as another big who can play both inside and out. The freshman scraps for boards and has a nice jump shot, but with so much talent on the roster, he’s only averaging about 17 minutes per game.

Keys to the game

1) Crash the glass – On the year, West Virginia is 6-1 when outrebounding their opponents, with the lone loss coming on Saturday against Oklahoma State. Although the Mountaineers do a great job getting to the rack and knocking down threes, their ability to reclaim their misses makes them even more dangerous. Texas has done a solid job winning the rebounding battle in most of their games this year, so if they can take away that aspect of West Virginia’s offense and also get their own second chances, the Horns may be able to pull out a tough road win.

2) Attack in transition – West Virginia throws in a lot of different defensive looks, including an odd-front zone that gave the Horns trouble late in last year’s loss at Morgantown. With a young and inexperienced backcourt, that could give Texas some issues, especially considering the team’s tendency to go stagnant on the offensive end for extended stretches.

Fortunately, West Virginia has struggled at stopping the ball in transition and finding off-the-ball players on the break. The Longhorns already prefer to play an up-tempo game, but against the Mountaineers, that kind of approach is a necessity. Of course, with West Virginia taking very good care of the basketball, the Horns will need to constantly look up after defensive boards if they want to initiate the break.

3) Shut down dribble penetration – This is easier said than done, but if the Texas defense can communicate well and provide the help to limit West Virginia’s dribble penetration, the Mountaineers have shown that they will often settle for jumpers. The challenge doesn’t end with simply cutting off driving lanes, as good rotation will be key to prevent kickouts to WVU’s excellent shooters. Help defense and good rotation still won’t be enough on some possessions, thanks to West Virginia’s crisp ball movement, but that will hopefully provide enough stops to give Texas a chance in this one.