The Longhorns made it interesting, but still took care of business on Wednesday night. A 72-64 win over Oklahoma kept Texas in the hunt for the NCAAs, while numerous teams in the chase pack took damaging losses. Even with big wins from Colorado State (over UNLV) and South Florida (at Louisville), the Longhorns held their ground in Joe Lunardi’s “Last Four In.”

For the past few weeks, Burnt Orange Bubble Watch has compared the Horns to the other teams fighting for those final bids. This week, we turn our attention to the dangerous Bid Snatchers, those teams that come out of nowhere to win a conference tournament, steal an NCAA berth, and shrink the bubble.

Most often, those teams come from mid-major conferences, but they’ve been known to come from the Big Six, as well. In 2008, Georgia made an improbable run through a tornado-delayed SEC tournament and won the league’s auto-bid just hours before the NCAA bracket was revealed. By improbably winning their way into the tournament, the Bulldogs forced out a bubble team at the last minute.

With the Longhorns likely to be sweating the bubble all the way through the bracket’s unveiling on Selection Sunday, the team’s fans will want to keep a close eye on the tournaments below.

Ivy

We start our look at the Bid Snatchers with a league that doesn’t actually have a post-season tournament, and instead awards its auto-bid to the regular-season champ. The Harvard Crimson are the only squad in the Ivy race who stands to earn an at-large bid, so Texas fans need to hope that Tommy Amaker’s bunch can win the league crown. The Crimson are not a lock for the tournament, but do have neutral-site wins over Florida State and Central Florida on the résumé. While Harvard could be left out if they fail to win the auto-bid, there’s absolutely no way that the Ivy gets a second team into the dance if the Crimson win the league.

Harvard’s loss to Penn at home last Saturday night complicated the Ivy race, leaving the Crimson just a half-game ahead of the Quakers heading into the final weekend of the season. Last night, it took overtime to secure a win over Columbia, preserving Harvard’s narrow lead as they head to Cornell for their regular season finale tonight.

At this point, their worst-case scenario is a loss tonight followed by a pair of wins by Penn. If the Crimson can hold off Cornell in their season finale, they’ll be assured at least a one-game, neutral-site playoff against Penn. The Quakers close out their season with a game against Yale tonight and a road trip to Princeton on Tuesday.

Atlantic Sun (February 29th – March 3rd)

By now, everyone now knows Rick Byrd and Belmont, the small school in Nashville that stormed onto the national radar with a near-upset of Duke in the 2008 tournament. This season, the Bruins have a marginal profile and likely won’t make the field if they fall short in the A-Sun. Belmont’s RPI was 68th in the country heading into Monday’s action, and the Bruins have just one win against the RPI Top 50.

While the Bruins likely won’t make the field without the Atlantic Sun’s auto-bid, bubblers will still be pulling for Belmont to win the title, if only for simplicity’s sake. That title chase became much easier yesterday, as the conference’s 2-seed and tournament host, Mercer, lost in the tournament semifinals. The Bruins are now just one win away from the NCAAs, and need only to knock off Florida Gulf Coast in tonight’s Atlantic Sun title game.

Ohio Valley (February 29th – March 3rd)

Murray State is the big name in the OVC, and they nearly marched through the league (and their season) with an unblemished mark. The only loss for the Racers came at home against Tennessee State in early February, a fact that adds a delicious subtext to this afternoon’s league title game between the two teams.

With the tournament taking place in Nashville, this could end up being a bit of a road game for the Racers, but that might not make much of a difference. Last Thursday, Murray State marched into the Gentry Center and enacted their revenge on Tennessee State with an 80-62 drubbing. Pomeroy gives the Tigers a 22% chance to bounce back, pull off the upset today, and frustrate bubblers nationwide.

West Coast (February 29th – March 5th)

The bizarre West Coast Conference tournament setup has always been great for bubble teams. Bracketed in a stepladder fashion, the WCC protects its top teams with double byes, and even had to add a play-in game this season to accommodate the addition of BYU. As a result, St. Mary’s and Gonzaga have yet to play a game in the tournament, which moves into the semifinal round tonight.

The Gaels and Bulldogs are the league’s only locks at this point, although BYU is a team in the bubble discussion. If the Cougars won the auto-bid, it would not be nearly as disastrous as having the San Francisco Dons win the title, but it could still qualify as bid thievery. Bubble teams will definitely be pulling for Gonzaga to take care of BYU tonight and relegate the Cougars in the at-large discussion, but the most important thing is that St. Mary’s knock off San Fran in the first semifinal.

Missouri Valley (March 1st – 4th)

According to stats guru Ken Pomeroy, the Missouri Valley is the most dangerous early conference tournament for bubble teams. Heading into Arch Madness, there was a 17% chance that the league’s auto-bid would be won by someone other than Wichita State or Creighton, the two MVC teams that are considered a lock for at-large bids.

Northern Iowa and Missouri State were the two most likely teams to steal a bid in the MVC, according to Pomeroy, but both went down in yesterday’s quarterfinals. That leaves the top four seeds all intact for today’s semifinal action, with bubble teams pulling hard for the Shockers and Jays to take care of Illinois State and Evansville. Based on cumulative probabilities, Pomeroy gives roughly a 60% chance that bubble teams will see their dream MVC championship match-up of Wichita State and Creighton.

Colonial (March 2nd – 5th)

The CAA has been a mid-major darling in recent seasons, but the tripe at the bottom of the league standings this season has certainly hurt the league’s chances for multiple bids. At the top of the table, Drexel and VCU are the only likely candidates for at-large bids, but the Dragons appear to have the inside track to an at-large thanks to their regular-season crown. Neither team has a flashy profile, but the Rams at least own a win over South Florida, another squad in the at-large discussion. Fans of bubble teams would be most pleased by one of these two teams winning the league tournament, with the other making an early exit.

Atlantic 10 (March 6th – 11th)

The Battle on the Boardwalk looms large in the at-large drama this season, with Xavier, Dayton and St. Joe’s all needing to beef up their résumés down the stretch. UMass was even on the fringes of the bubble discussion earlier this week, but a tough loss at home to Temple may have ended that talk permanently. While the A-10 still has to wrap up its regular season this afternoon, bubblers will no doubt be rooting for Temple or Saint Louis to take home the post-season title, while also hoping that the Musketeers, Flyers, and Hawks all lose as early as possible.

Conference USA (March 7th – 10th)

The bubble situation in Conference USA is not nearly as simple as the leagues we’ve already covered, solely due to the fact that no team is a clear lock for the tournament. Both Memphis and Southern Miss have profiles that would seem to be good enough for NCAA inclusion, but bad losses down the stretch could screw that up.

The Golden Eagles already took a spill against both Houston and UTEP, then nearly ate an unforgivable defeat to SMU at home on Wednesday night. With a season-ending road trip to Marshall still on tap this afternoon, Southern Miss must avoid another bad loss that could overshadow their 10-4 mark against the RPI Top 100.

When the C-USA tournament kicks off next Wednesday, bubble teams will be squarely in the corner of the Memphis Tigers. A win by Southern Miss would not be too damaging, because like BYU, the Golden Eagles could already be an at-large inclusion. Central Florida, however, has shown it can knock off good teams and is more than capable of bid larceny. UCF is also a team that has already been in the bubble discussion, but Tuesday night’s lopsided loss to Memphis didn’t help their case. An early tournament loss by the Knights would be a boon to bubble teams everywhere.

Big West (March 8th – 10th)

Long Beach State earned a lot of press in early November with their upset win at Pittsburgh. The 49ers followed that up a month later with a neutral-site win over Xavier, but the Musketeers weren’t at full strength thanks to suspensions from the Crosstown Brawl. Since then, both the Musketeers and the Panthers have fallen off, so the value of those wins have likely diminished in the eyes of the Selection Committee. Unfortunately, those are the only RPI Top 100 wins for LBSU, which posted an 0-6 mark against the RPI Top 50.

The Big West is full of teams ranked 200+ in the RPI, putting them in the bottom tier that is used on the Selection Committee’s Nitty Gritty reports. A loss to one of those schools in the Big West Tournament could be fatal to the at-large hopes of the 49ers. Regardless, LBSU will still be considered for an at-large if they fail to secure the Big West’s auto-bid, so Horn fans should be pulling for Casper Ware and Co. next weekend.

Mountain West (March 8th – 10th)

The Mountain West has clearly been a three-bid league for the last few weeks, with Wyoming and Colorado State continually taking missteps in their pursuit of a fourth NCAA slot for the MWC. The Rams may have finally pushed themselves over the hump with a huge comeback win against UNLV on Wednesday night, but that loss at Boise State still sticks out on an otherwise impressive résumé.

Bubble teams will be happy with UNLV, New Mexico, or San Diego State winning the tournament title, but will also be hoping for an early loss by Colorado State. The Rams also could help out bubble teams by losing at Air Force today in the regular-season finale, an outcome that is very possible when you consider CSU’s 2-9 mark on the road.

Pac-12 (March 7th – 10th)

Like Conference USA, the Pac-12 is a tough league to figure out. The conference did itself no favors with an abysmal non-conference record, finishing 1-29 against teams in the RPI Top 50. That meant that as conference play began and teams starting knocking each other off, there were no good wins to be had. As a result, there are no true at-large locks in this league, and it’s hard to justify even three bids coming from the conference. As Andy Glockner pointed out in a recent Bubble Watch, likely regular-season champ Washington has the profile of a mid-major champ, not one of a Big Six title holder.

For bubble teams, that presents an interesting situation. If you took the names off of the profiles and did a blind comparison, it wouldn’t be a stretch to give the Pac-12 only one bid. We’d personally fall on the side arguing for two bids, but it’s insane that you could conceivably make a case for a major conference to earn only an auto-bid. However, with a weak bubble and the cachet that a power conference name provides, it’s probably much more likely that we see three teams in the field on Selection Sunday.

At-large contenders are hoping for early tournament slip-ups by Arizona, Oregon, and Colorado, the three bland, average teams that could still somehow receive a third bid from the Pac-12. (It’s worth noting that we originally had “earn” in that last sentence, but had to edit it to “receive.”) The primary focus for fans of bubble teams, however, is a Pac-12 post-season title for Cal, although a win by Washington wouldn’t be disastrous.

The others

Bid thieves can certainly come from other conferences, as proven by the 2008 Georgia team mentioned earlier. With the depth of the top leagues, however, the odds of that happening are very slim. With the Big East, Big 10, and Big 12 currently projected by Joe Lunardi to put 23 teams in the tournament, it’s tough to see a team outside of that group winning one of those league’s tourneys.

What bubble fans will be watching for in those tournaments is how fellow bubblers are faring. For Texas, that means rooting for Northwestern to get bounced early in the Big 10, or to see Miami lose quickly in the ACC tournament. The Longhorns will have to take care of their own business, too, as the opportunity for a big win will present itself in the form or Baylor or Iowa State in the Big 12 quarterfinals next Thursday.

The NCAA hopes of the Texas Longhorns survived an incredibly close call in Lubbock on Saturday afternoon, as Rick Barnes and Co. escaped the High Plains with a 71-67 overtime victory over Texas Tech. The Longhorns coughed up an 11-point halftime lead and even found themselves down by as many as six in overtime, yet managed to avoid a crippling loss that would have practically guaranteed Texas would miss the NCAA tournament.

Instead, the Longhorns find themselves still in the “Last Four In” of Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology update, with all four of those teams in action tonight. While Texas can’t make a huge statement with a win over Oklahoma tonight, a victory is necessary to keep hopes alive.

Northwestern and South Florida both have chances to knock off opponents in the RPI’s Top 25, as they host Ohio State and travel to Louisville, respectively. A win by either of those teams will easily push them past Texas in the pecking order, but that is much easier said than done. If the Wildcats and Bulls can’t notch signature wins, the Longhorns have an opportunity to create a little cushion in the S-curve with a victory tonight.

Meet the Sooners

For an in-depth look at the Oklahoma roster and the team’s key stats, check out LRT’s game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first meeting

For a post-game from the first Texas/OU match-up this season, read LRT’s recap of the Texas victory in Norman.

Since then…

With Texas and Oklahoma not squaring off until mid-February, the teams had to wait just 15 days to face each other once again. The Sooners posted a 1-2 mark since last facing the Longhorns, with their only victory coming at home against Oklahoma State. In that game, Oklahoma logged a 45.5% success rate from behind the arc, led by Steven Pledger’s hot hand. The junior guard was 3-for-4 from long range and was tops on the team with 17 points.

Tyler Neal also found success from three-point range in that game, knocking down two of his four attempts. The sophomore made some clutch threes against Texas, and that performance jump-started his recent resurgence. After averaging just a shade over eight minutes per game in OU’s first 14 Big 12 contests, Neal logged 17 minutes against the Longhorns. In the three games since then, he’s averaged more than 18, and has become a key contributor off the bench. As the Longhorns learned in Norman, Neal cannot be given too much space to shoot.

The Texas game also proved to be a launching pad for fellow sophomore Cameron Clark. After a freshman season in which he showed flashes of brilliance, Clark had yet to make a big splash against quality opponents this season. He finally dazzled against the Horns, however, putting in 13 points in a 38-minute performance. He’s hardly left the floor since facing Texas, averaging 14 points and nearly 34 minutes in those three contests.

Keys to the game

1) Start quickly – The Longhorns struggled early against the Oklahoma zone in Norman, although it certainly wasn’t the fault of point guard Myck Kabongo. He consistently found creases in the defense and set up his teammates, but the Horns were ice cold from the floor. If Texas can hit those open looks tonight and get the reactionary Erwin Center crowd into it right away, this one could have a very different feel from the first game.

2) Limit second-chance points – The Sooners are one of the nation’s best when it comes to reclaiming missed shots, snagging more than 36% of their offensive board chances. Texas kept Oklahoma right at their season average, allowing the Sooners to reclaim 36.1% of their missed shots. Even more importantly, Oklahoma was only able to turn those offensive boards into eight extra points. If Texas can hold OU to a similar number tonight, a season sweep should be in the cards.

3) Lock down the perimeter – Oklahoma only made 33% of their threes in the first game, but have a pair of quality outside shooters in Pledger and the suddenly-important Neal. As any fan of college basketball knows, the triple is the great equalizer, so Texas needs to keep those two Sooners from getting hot beyond the arc. Oklahoma lacks any other real sharpshooters, so chasing Pledger and Neal off the perimeter will greatly diminish the chances of an upset tonight.

Margin for error is a thing of the past for the Texas Longhorns. Rick Barnes’ young team lost any wiggle room they might have had in their quest for the NCAA tournament, falling to Oklahoma State and Baylor in back-to-back games. The two defeats put Texas right back on the bubble with only three games left in the regular season.

Few people hold the illusion that the Longhorns will march into Allen Fieldhouse and earn a win against Kansas in the season finale. That means that Texas has to win their next two games and one in the Big 12 tournament to even get to the 20-win plateau. Thanks to an incredibly soft bubble this season, Texas could even still squeak into this year’s NCAA tournament with less than 20 wins.

Regardless of how many victories the team finishes the year with, what the Horns simply cannot afford to have is the stench of a loss to Texas Tech emanating from their résumé If Texas goes down in Lubbock this afternoon, it’s time to start making plans for the NIT.

Meet the Red Raiders

To learn more about the Texas Tech players and the team’s style of basketball, check out LRT’s game preview from the first game between these two teams.

The first game

The Longhorns set the tone early, swatting Texas Tech’s shots with regularity. Unable to score, the Red Raiders were further discouraged by a Texas offense that penetrated at will and scored in bunches. Senior Clint Chapman was the biggest benefactor, scoring 20 points on a ton of easy looks and a perfect 8-of-8 mark at the line.

The game was never in doubt, and Texas built a lead as large as 25 points in the second half. Despite the deep hole, Texas Tech continued to fight, reeling off an eight-point run before trading buckets down the stretch. Texas cruised to a 74-57 victory, as three different Horns scored at least 17 points.

In the post-game presser, Coach Barnes showed concern over that late defensive lapse, saying his team started to “play with no purpose.” If the Longhorns manage to build a big lead at United Spirit Arena this afternoon, you can be sure that the coaches will remind them to stay focused.

Since then…

Texas Tech managed to avoid the historical shame of an 0-for-conference season, whipping Oklahoma at home two weeks ago. The Red Raiders locked down Sooner superstar Steven Pledger, holding him to just four points. A box-and-one defense was especially effective for Tech down the stretch, as Bean Willis stuck with Pledger and frustrated him in crunch time.

The Red Raiders were unable to build on that victory, however, scoring just 38 points in a home loss to A&M three days later. Even more shocking than that final output was the fact that Tech managed just 12 of those points in the final 21:30 of the game. The Red Raiders posted an offensive efficiency mark of only 0.716 points per possession, coughing it up on more than 26% of their trips down the floor.

Tech followed that game with a predictable drubbing in Allen Fieldhouse at the hands of the Jayhawks, but then performed admirably in a road game against Iowa State. Although the Cyclones ultimately won by a 72-54 count, the Red Raiders trailed by just three points at the under-eight media timeout. Unfortunately, Tech managed just two points the rest of the way as Iowa State pulled away for the victory.

Keys to the game

1) Force turnovers – The Red Raiders have one of the few rosters in the country with less experience than Texas, and that youth has shown in the form of constant miscues. Tech is one of the five worst teams in the nation when it comes to turnover percentage, losing the ball on 25.9% of their possessions. If the Longhorns defense can ensure that Tech continues that trend this afternoon, it will not only cripple the Red Raider offense, but also fuel the transition game for Texas.

2) Make the freebies – While Tech is one of the worst five teams in terms of turnovers, they are nearly as bad when it comes to sending opponents to the line. The team’s defensive free-throw rate of 49.6% is one of the 10 worst in D-I hoops, and it means that Texas Tech opponents shoot one free throw for every two field goal attempts.

The Longhorns are knocking down 73% of their free throws so far this year, but have had random games where that number has been closer to 60%. Leaving points at the line will only serve to keep Tech in the game, something that is incredibly dangerous on the road.

3) Make Big Lew uncomfortable – Robert Lewandowski has proven to be a very streaky player in his four years at Texas Tech, and when he’s on a hot streak he can be incredibly effective. On the other side of the coin, he’s also proven that a rough start can essentially knock him out of the game before it really even gets going.

If the Texas defense can replicate their work from the first game, Big Lew will have a hard time getting started. Forcing him to take tough shots early and attacking him on defense should knock Lewandowski out of his comfort zone. Without a big game from their biggest player, Tech will have a hard time pulling off the upset.

The cries rang out almost immediately on Saturday afternoon. Still stinging from watching their team suffer a road loss to Oklahoma State, Texas fans littered message boards, Twitter, and the blogosphere with their own personal obituaries for the 2011-12 basketball season.

Those frustrated rants grew in number on Monday night, as the Longhorns blew a 12-point lead to Baylor in the second half, letting a potentially monumental win slip right through their fingers. Any orangeblood with an internet connection knew for a fact that the NCAA was out of reach, and that this Longhorn team was bound for the NIT. If more Texas fans were aware of the existence of the CBI and CIT, there likely would have been quite a few folks penciling the Horns into those brackets, as well.

The most overlooked fact in all of this hand-wringing, however, is that Texas doesn’t play basketball in a vacuum. It’s not just the results of Longhorn games that will shape the NCAA bracket, which won’t even be completely filled in until March 11th. The simple fact of the matter is that the Selection Committee has to put 68 teams into the field every year, and this is one of those seasons where it’s very difficult to find enough worthy squads. As Mike Finger put it after the heartbreaking loss to Baylor, “Look at the wretched class of goof-offs on the bubble.”

Fortunately for Longhorn fans, many of those goof-offs decided to copy Texas’ performance from Monday night when faced with their own big games on Tuesday. Northwestern failed to score for the final two minutes of regulation and first three minutes of overtime, missing the chance to pad their résumé with a big win over Michigan. N.C. State dropped their third straight game against a top-flight ACC team, losing to North Carolina by 12. Elsewhere, Xavier couldn’t come up with a road victory against UMass, dropping a seven-point decision to the Minutemen.

Only Seton Hall and Colorado State made strong statements on Tuesday night, logging big home victories over Georgetown and New Mexico, respectively. The Pirates now boast seven wins against the RPI Top 100 and will wrap up the regular season with very winnable games against Rutgers and DePaul. At this point, it certainly looks like Kevin Willard should have Seton Hall in the dance in just his second year on the job.

The Rams, meanwhile, present a much more interesting case. They own very strong computer numbers, including a schedule that was 7th-toughest nationally even before they knocked off New Mexico. That challenging schedule won’t get any easier, though, as Colorado State still must travel to San Diego State and host UNLV. Barring a clean sweep of those games, the Rams will likely have work left to do in the MWC tournament.

After all of the dust had settled from a busy Tuesday night, the Longhorns — already written off by their fanbase — found themselves back in Joe Lunardi’s bracket. Clinging to the edge of the bubble, Texas was once again one of the “Last Four In,” with a game against league doormat Texas Tech coming up on Saturday. Thanks to all of the bubble carnage happening nationwide, simply winning easy games can keep Texas on the right side of the cutline for now.

If you’re new to Burnt Orange Bubble Watch, here’s a quick recap of the rules. The table below is based on Lunardi’s Monday bracket, with slight revisions made based on his bubble update following Tuesday’s action. Barring any bid thievery in conference tournaments, teams listed above the black line would be dancing according to Joe.

The W-L records only include games against D-I competition. Asterisks next to team names indicate the number of wins that were not against D-I foes, and thus do not count for profile purposes. RPI and SOS numbers are taken from Monday’s update from the NCAA, and records against the RPI Top 50 and Top 100 are updated through Tuesday night’s games. The “KP W-L” column shows each team’s predicted final record, as calculated by Ken Pomeroy.

With no one wanting to step up and make a charge at the end of the season, the pack of contenders sitting below the cutline grows with every update. More and more teams slide further down the list, making the clump of teams at the bottom of the chart a muddled mess of candidates whose tournament hopes are incredibly slim. Thanks to the inability of big-conference bubblers to nail down quality wins, some surprising teams are rising through the ranks simply by winning the games they are supposed to. Central Florida and South Florida are now sitting just outside of the tournament field according to Lunardi, although the Bulls have a terribly tough slate to finish the year. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights will still have to take care of Memphis on the road, but have a very manageable road ahead of them in the C-USA.

Tons of bubble games are on tap again tonight, although almost all the action involves teams still left on the outside looking in. For these squads, wins are practically mandatory at this point if they hope to catch the rest of the competition. Here are the games Horn fans should be keeping an eye on tonight:

Mississippi at Tennessee, 6 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court 1/ESPN3)
Dayton at Duquesne, 6 P.M. CT
Richmond at St. Joseph’s, 6 P.M. CT
VCU at UNC-Wilmington, 6 P.M. CT
South Florida at Syracuse, 7 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court 2/ESPN3)
Michigan State at Minnesota, 7:30 P.M. CT (Big Ten Network)
Central Florida at Rice, 8 P.M. CT
Wyoming at San Diego State, 9:30 P.M. CT (The Mtn)

The Golden Gophers can make the biggest statement of the night with a win over Michigan State, which would undoubtedly leapfrog them over much of the competition. South Florida can also come up with a huge victory, but upsetting Syracuse at the Carrier Dome will be extremely difficult. Dayton also has a lot to prove in their road trip to Pittsburgh, as the Flyers have been up-and-down all year and have already lost to the Dukes at home. Dayton has quite a few quality wins on the résumé, but has to avoid dropping too many games down the stretch and giving the committee a reason to leave them out.

The Longhorns, meanwhile, have three more days to sit back, relax, and let other teams make mistakes. While there’s little chance that Texas fans will feel any level of comfort heading into Selection Sunday, it’s clear that their team is at least still in the mix.

The Texas Longhorns took a big step backwards on Saturday, losing to Oklahoma State and a superhuman Keiton Page in Stillwater. The loss snapped the team’s four-game winning streak and set the Horns back a few pegs on the S-curve, with just two weeks left in the regular season. A win over the Cowboys would have kept Texas safely above the bubble, but now the Horns find themselves back in the danger zone.

With just three wins against the RPI Top 50, the Longhorn résumé could use some extra lines. Those three victories came against Temple (currently 16th in the RPI), Iowa State (40th), and Kansas State (50th), so a win tonight over Baylor (10th) would certainly bolster Texas’ post-season hopes. While the Longhorns could still feasibly make the NCAAs without a win tonight, it would require a lot of help from other teams, or a solid run in the conference tournament.

Texas has had more than its fair share of opportunities to knock off top teams, having lost three games against teams in the RPI’s Top 10 by a combined nine points. Tonight’s battle with Baylor represents the best chance the Longhorns have left for a defining victory. The only question that remains is whether or not this young team can finally rise to the challenge.

Meet the Bears

For a full look at the Baylor roster, check out LRT’s game preview from the first time these two teams met.

The first game

The Longhorns found success early against the Baylor defense with quick ball movement and aggressive play. Texas actually built a small, early lead over the Bears, holding a four-point edge eight minutes into the game. But with both Clint Chapman and Myck Kabongo cooling their heels on the bench after picking up two fouls each, Baylor was able to pull ahead and take a nine-point lead to the locker room.

Although the Bears stretched their lead as large as 12 points, the Longhorns chipped away at that advantage throughout the second half. J’Covan Brown exploded for 20 of his 32 points after the break, bring the Longhorns all the way back to tie it with just 2:53 to go. Pierre Jackson immediately responded with a clutch three to give Baylor a new lead, one that the team would never relinquish. Although Brown had a three-point attempt to tie the game with 10 seconds left, it clanked off the iron and the Bears salted it away with a pair of free throws by A.J. Walton.

Perry Jones III led the way for Baylor, posting a double-double with an impressive 22-point, 14-rebound line. Quincy Miller also put up great numbers, showing off a smooth jump shot as he piled up 18 points.

Texas did a great job rattling the Baylor offense in the first meeting, turning 18 miscues into 20 points. Unfortunately, the Longhorns also had one of their worst outings of the season at the free-throw line, making just 16 of their 26 attempts. In a game where the Bears only won by five points and made 80% of their own shots at the charity stripe, that failure to convert the freebies was crippling.

Since then…

Baylor has posted just a 3-3 record since facing the Longhorns, with two of those wins coming narrowly against teams at the bottom of the standings. The Bears needed some last minute heroics from Jackson — and an inexplicably bad shot from Elston Turner — to knock off A&M at Reed Arena, 63-60. A few days later, the Bears again held on in the final minute to earn a 64-60 road win at Oklahoma State.

After surviving those close calls, the Bears were hoping to earn some revenge the following week against the only two teams to defeat them — Kansas and Missouri. Instead, Baylor was embarrassed on national television by Kansas and Jeff Withey, and then lost by 15 to the Tigers in Columbia.

Two games out of first place and having been swept by both of the teams ahead of them, the Bears were essentially eliminated from the Big 12 race. Saturday’s one-point loss at home to Kansas State served only to shovel more dirt on those title hopes, while also dropping Baylor into a tie for third with Iowa State.

Over the last two weeks, the PJ3 critics have once again been out in force. The sophomore star has long been lambasted for disappearing in big games and lacking the drive to carry his team. With the Bears losing three out of their last four, his weak performances have given the naysayers plenty of ammo. In the losses to Kansas, Baylor, and Kansas State, PJ3 averaged just 4.3 points per game on 19.2% shooting from the field.

The Bears have also seen a severe drop-off in their three point success. In their last five games, Baylor has made just 28.2% of their long-range attempts, a far cry from the 41.4% mark they carried into the first game with Texas. While there’s certainly no way that the Longhorns can lay off the Baylor three-point shooters and focus solely on the interior threats, another rough night for Baylor behind the arc will definitely help Texas’ chances.

Keys to the game

1) Win the turnover battle – The Longhorns did an excellent job forcing mistakes when they took on the Bears in Waco. Baylor ended more than 26% of their possessions with a turnover, leading to 20 points for the Longhorns. In front of a Texas crowd that often only cheers when given a reason to, fast break buckets will be key to keeping the Longhorn fans on their feet.

In Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma State, Texas coughed it up on more than 21% of their possessions, while forcing the Cowboys into mistakes on just 11% of theirs. Even if Texas isn’t able to force as many mistakes by Baylor as they did the first time around, the Horns simply cannot afford to waste their own possessions. Texas absolutely must take better care of the basketball tonight.

2) Make the second chances count – One of Baylor’s most glaring weaknesses is their inability to close out possessions with defensive boards. Even though their team is long and athletic, the Bears are in the bottom half of D-I hoops when it comes to allowing offensive rebounds. The Longhorns happen to be the 13th-best offensive rebounding team in the nation, so they will certainly get some second and third chances tonight. Texas must take advantage of those extended possessions and turn them into more points.

3) Move the ball quickly – The Baylor zone has sprung a few leaks this season, as Kansas showed the nation in their win on February 8th. The Bears are especially susceptible in the short corner, often failing to rotate and giving up easy points on the baseline. Texas exploited this a few times in Waco, and needs to do the same again tonight. Quick ball movement and aggressive penetration will force Baylor to react on defense, something that has been a major problem for the team all season long.

4) Avoid first-half foul trouble – Kabongo and Chapman have been particularly bad offenders in this category, spending much of the first half on the bench in multiple conference games. While some of Chapman’s first-half fouls fall on other Longhorns missing defensive assignments, Kabongo often picks up cheap fouls on plays he has no business trying to make. The Longhorns will need both players to remain in the game this evening, and will also need Alexis Wangmene to avoid foul trouble and help compete against Baylor’s size.

5) Get McClellan going – If Kabongo does happen to find himself in foul trouble, it will be much easier for Baylor to focus their defense on Brown. Sheldon McClellan needs to be assertive and make himself a scoring threat to open things up for his teammates. When McClellan takes charge, the Longhorn offense is much less stagnant, and much more difficult to defend.