1.28.12
Posted by Ryan Clark at 7:55AM

Texas Longhorns (13-7 overall, 3-4 Big 12) at #7/6 Baylor Bears (18-2, 5-2)
Ferrell Center | Waco, TX | Tip: 12:05 P.M. CT | TV: CBS
LRT Consecutive Game #207

The Texas Longhorns took care of business on Tuesday night, earning a win they had to have over Iowa State. The Horns have spent most of the season positioned squarely on the proverbial NCAA tournament bubble, but another loss against a marginal RPI Top 50 team like the Cyclones would surely have darkened the postseason outlook for the Horns.

Today’s game against a deep, athletic Baylor team ranked in the Top 10 is certainly not a must-win. Even the most optimistic of Longhorn fans likely realizes just how difficult it will be for Texas to pull off a monumental road upset in Waco this afternoon. But while no one is expecting the Horns to march into the Ferrell Center and shock the nation, an improbable victory would provide a massive boost to Texas’ NCAA tournament chances.

By the numbers

The Bears roared out to a 17-0 record this season, the best start in school history. Baylor had close calls during that historic stretch, needing a clutch three and overtime to beat West Virginia in Las Vegas, while winning by just a bucket at Kansas State and against Mississippi State in Dallas. The Bears also won by three against BYU at the Marriott Center, one of the toughest venues in all of college basketball. With 11 games left until the conference tournament even begins, this Baylor team is already well-prepared for high-pressure situations.

Perry Jones III and Baylor are among the best in the nation
(Photo credit: Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press)

Baylor has one of the ten most efficient offenses in college hoops, scoring 1.168 points per possession. Even against the tougher opposition in Big 12 play, the Bears have only seen that number dip to 1.149, the second-best mark in the league. Baylor’s success hinges on an incredibly high effective field goal percentage of 55.6%, a number boosted by the team’s deadly accuracy from long range. Six of the eight members of Baylor’s core rotation have made at least a third of their threes in league play, and the team has knocked down 41% of their long-range looks this season.

With a big, athletic frontline, the Bears also extend possessions when they happen to miss shots. The team’s 37% mark for offensive rebounding ranks in the Top 40 nationally, and that percentage has actually ticked up slightly in league games. On defense, that length and athleticism also leads to a lot of blocked shots, and the team’s 15.1% swat percentage is ranked 14th in the nation.

Where that height and athletic ability fails the Bears is on the defensive glass. Baylor is actually one of the 100 worst teams in Division I when it comes to securing defensive boards, as the team allows opponents to reclaim 34.3% of their misses. Under Scott Drew, the Bear defense has been synonymous with the 2-3 zone, although this year they have mixed in much more man and even a 1-3-1 look. With the team not used to having box out assignments in the zone, they have had difficulties remembering to put a body on opposing rebounders when playing man. For a Texas team that is actually very good at grabbing offensive boards, this could be huge.

Meet the Bears

While the Baylor lineup is full of highly-touted recruits and potential NBA lottery picks, the biggest impact this season has come from a junior college transfer. A player of the year at the JUCO level, Pierre Jackson (No. 55) has earned a starting spot in the team’s last two games, and it’s easy to see why. The Baylor offense is a completely different animal with Jackson on the floor, as he dices up defenses with his dribble penetration and always seems to put his teammates in the perfect position to score.

In conference play, Jackson is nearly averaging an unconventional double-double, posting 14 points and nine assists each night. In addition to being able to put the ball on the floor and thread the needle with ridiculous passes, the former Southern Idaho standout is also practically automatic from long range. In Big 12 games, Jackson has drilled 53.3% of his looks from behind the arc.

Joining Jackson in the backcourt is another guy who cans it from deep, Canadian product Brady Heslip (No 5). A transfer from Boston College, Heslip has taken 82% of his shots from downtown this season. With a 47% success rate from three-point range, it’s hard to fault the guy. Although Heslip doesn’t shoot it often from inside the arc, he has shown a deft touch when defenses run him off the perimeter. He can knock down the soft floater, and has even gone old-school with a few banked pull-up Js.

The name that all fans are likely familiar with is sophomore star Perry Jones III (No. 1). Known as PJ3, the 6’11” forward is an all-around stud who has the NBA scouts drooling. He’s played every position in his career, so he’s the deadly breed of big man with great handles who can also knock down jumpers all over the floor.

Quincy Acy’s shot blocking protects the lane
(Photo credit: Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press)

The main knock on PJ3’s game is that he disappears in the clutch, deferring to teammates when he should be demanding the rock. Critics made this claim following the team’s losses to Kansas and Missouri, but they also failed to point out that he injured his ankle during the game against the Jayhawks. Back to full strength on Tuesday night, PJ3 posted a 21-point, 12-rebound line against the upset-minded Sooners.

Alongside PJ3 in the Baylor frontcourt is senior big man Quincy Acy (No. 4), a high-energy guy who knows how to rock the rim. In his career, Acy has 219 dunks, which account for 51% of his made field goals. He’s often the recipient of great dump-offs from Jackson, but will also fiercely throw down an offensive rebound when the opportunity presents itself. The Bears also run a simple lob play on baseline inbounds situations to get Acy dunks, something they have been doing all four years he’s been on campus. He’s also a force inside on defense, swatting more than two shots per game for a block percentage of 8.4%, a mark that is just outside the Top 50 nationally.

Freshman forward Quincy Miller (No. 30) rounds out the starting five for Baylor, and he provides yet another all-around scoring threat. On a team without PJ3, Miller would likely be the go-to guy, but at Baylor he’s an incredibly-talented second option. He had major knee surgery during his senior year of high school, so his first step still isn’t quite as explosive as it once was, but he can still score in bunches with an array of moves and a jump shot that’s good past the arc. In conference play, Miller is tops on the team with 15.3 points per game.

Coming off the bench is point guard A.J. Walton (No. 22), who lost the starting job to Jackson. Known for his outstanding perimeter defense, Walton still averages around 20 minutes per game and will likely be tasked with shutting down J’Covan Brown when he’s on the floor. Walton has a steal percentage of 4.6%, which may not sound like much, but is actually the 25th-best individual mark in the nation.

Senior forward Anthony Jones (No. 41) is another displaced starter, but he is playing his role perfectly on this deep team. He provides a lot of length for the back line of that Baylor zone, but also is a long-range threat that loves to camp out in the corner for kickouts on the offensive end. Jones has made roughly 31% of his threes so far on the season, and is also one of three Bears to have an individual offensive rebounding mark north of 10%.

Sophomore guard Gary Franklin (No. 0) is a transfer from Cal who became eligible at midseason. He’s only playing about 11 minutes per game in conference, and is essentially just a long-range catch-and-shoot threat. Sixteen of his 17 field goal attempts in Big 12 games have come from behind the arc, and he’s hitting at a 37.5% clip.

Cory Jefferson (No. 34) rounds out the core rotation, playing about nine minutes per game against Big 12 opponents. He’s a long and lean 6’9″ forward who will undoubtedly lead the team in blocked shots before he graduates. Against UT-Arlington, he blocked seven shots in 25 minutes on the court. In 10 of the team’s first 17 games, Jefferson swatted at least two shots, but he has seen very little action over the last three contests.

Keys to the game

1) Make second chances count – One of Baylor’s biggest weaknesses is on the defensive glass, which matches up perfectly with the Texas strength of offensive rebounding. The Longhorns must turn those second chances into points if they want to have any chance for an upset this afternoon. It will be even better if Texas can quickly turn those offensive boards into easy putbacks, as the Horns have really struggled in the half-court lately.

2) Get efficient contributions from Brown – A big reason for those half-court struggles has been the ball-dominating play of junior J’Covan Brown. In the team’s last three games, Brown is 18-of-70 from the floor (25.7%), having taken 40% of the team’s shots. When you consider that the Longhorns won one of those games and were in it until the final seconds against both Kansas and Kansas State, one can only wonder how Texas would have fared if Brown involved his teammates a little more.

Pierre Jackson can be forced into mistakes
(Photo credit: Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press)

In addition to eating up possessions with a ton of missed shots, Brown’s one-man show also led to his teammates doing very little when he was off the ball. Most Longhorns stood around on offense, failing to make cuts or set screens, instead waiting for the junior guard to come back to the ball and shoot. If Texas wants to win this tough road test, they will have to get an efficient game from Brown that involves his teammates.

3) Rattle Jackson – When Pierre Jackson is on his game, Baylor is tough to stop. The quick, tiny guard can push the issue in transition, break down the defense in the halfcourt, and hit dagger threes with little separation from his man. That being said, he’s also shown a tendency to make mistakes, and to let those mistakes snowball.

Jackson has picked up a fair number of charges on the season, so quality help defense can pin a few offensive fouls on him. In addition, his turnover rate of more than 30% is incredibly high for a point guard, oftentimes the result of him trying to do too much. The Longhorns don’t necessarily need to apply a ton of pressure on Jackson, but do need to play sound, team defense so they can capitalize when he tries to force things.

1.27.12
Posted by Ryan Clark at 11:08AM
TEAM W L THIS WEEK NEXT WEEK
Kansas 7 0 W vs. A&M, 64-54; Sat at ISU Wed vs. OU; Sat at Mizzou
Missouri 5 2 L at OSU, 79-72; Sat vs. Tech Mon at UT; Sat vs. KU
Baylor 5 2 W at OU, 77-65; Sat vs. UT Wed at A&M; Sat at OSU
Iowa State 4 3 L at UT, 62-55; Sat vs. KU Tue vs. KSU; Sat at OU
Kansas State 4 3 W at Tech, 69-47; Sat vs. OU Tue at ISU; Sat vs. A&M
Texas 3 4 W vs. ISU, 62-55; Sat at BU Mon vs. Mizzou; Sat vs. Tech
Oklahoma State 3 4 W vs. Mizzou, 79-72; Sat at A&M Tue at Tech; Sat vs. BU
Texas A&M 2 5 L at KU, 64-54; Sat vs. OSU Wed vs. BU; Sat at KSU
Oklahoma 2 5 L vs. BU, 77-65; Sat at KSU Wed at KU; Sat vs. ISU
Texas Tech 0 7 L vs. KSU, 69-47; Sat at Mizzou Tue vs. OSU; Sat at UT

Texas at Baylor; Saturday, 12 P.M. CT (CBS)
A full preview of the Texas/Baylor game will be available late Friday night.

Texas Tech at Missouri; Saturday, 12:30 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
The Red Raiders already faced long odds to win their first league game of the season when they take on Mizzou in Columbia tomorrow afternoon. But following Mizzou’s loss at Oklahoma State on Wednesday night, you can be sure that the Tigers have had a few days of intense practices to get them ready for their next opponent.

Missouri has not lost to Tech in Columbia since the 2005 season, and the Tigers have won 13 straight home games against conference opponents not named Kansas. Ken Pomeroy gives Tech a 1% chance to win the game, but even that might be a little high.

Kansas at Iowa State; Saturday, 1 P.M. CT (ESPN)
It’s a battle of big men in Ames on Saturday, as Thomas Robinson and Royce White square off once more. Both players are averaging double-doubles against conference opponents, with Robinson posting 17.9 points and 11.7 boards per game, while White owns a 13.9/10.9 line against Big 12 foes.

The Cyclones hung tough in the first meeting between these two teams, trailing by just two points with 6:37 to go. The Kansas defense clamped down, however, limiting Iowa State to just one field goal and a free throw the rest of the way to preserve another home victory. The ‘Clones haven’t defeated Kansas in their last 13 meetings, but the gold-clad sellout crowd expected at Hilton tomorrow afternoon could help to end that streak.

Oklahoma State at Texas A&M; Saturday, 3 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
Fans finally saw the Le’Bryan Nash that scouting services had drooled over in high school, as the freshman phenom carried the Cowboys to a monumental win over 2nd-ranked Missouri on Wednesday night. Nash scored a career-high 27 points, including 13 in a 3:22 stretch that erased a late Missouri lead and put Oklahoma State up for good.

The Aggies also performed well in their test against a Top 5 opponent, but faded down the stretch at Kansas on Monday night. Most impressive for A&M was the fact that they competed with the Jayhawks despite not having the services of Khris Middleton and with Dash Harris hobbled by a foot injury at the half. Middleton’s status for tomorrow’s game is still unknown, but the Aggies have actually looked better at times without their star.

Oklahoma at Kansas State; Saturday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
Coach Frank Martin was so frustrated by big man Jordan Henriquez and his lack of effort that he limited him to just eight minutes when K-State lost to the Sooners two weeks ago. Four days later, he was again only on the court for eight minutes in a narrow home win over Texas, and was then suspended for the game against Oklahoma State. Reinstated in time for the Texas Tech game on Wednesday night, Henriquez only played three minutes and notched just a pair of free throws.

In the first meeting between these teams, OU big men Andrew Fitzgerald and Romero Osby combined for 39 points on 83% shooting from the field. While the home-court advantage of Bramlage Coliseum is certainly going to make the atmosphere a bit different this time around, the Wildcats will need to perform better in the post. With Henriquez playing just eight minutes in the first meeting, Thomas Gipson and Jamar Samuels couldn’t stop the Sooner big men. If they struggle the same way tomorrow night, the Sooners could escape the Little Apple with a rare road win.

1.24.12
Posted by Ryan Clark at 1:44PM

Iowa State Cyclones (14-5 overall, 4-2 Big 12) at Texas Longhorns (12-7, 2-4)
Frank Erwin Center | Austin, TX | Tip: 8 P.M. CT | TV: Longhorn Network
LRT Consecutive Game #206

With a third of the conference schedule now in the rear-view mirror, the Texas Longhorns are clinging perilously to the NCAA bubble. The young team had two big résumé-building wins within their grasp during the last week, but let both slip through their fingers. Down two against Kansas State last Wednesday, the Longhorns had the ball with 20 seconds left, but turned it over to preserve a Wildcat victory. On Saturday, Texas was up four on a top-five Kansas team with 3:24 left, but failed to score a field goal the rest of the way and let another big win fall through the cracks.

Iowa State’s surprise start is worth celebrating
(Photo credit: Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press)

Those losses mean that the Longhorns are now 0-5 in games decided by six points or less. Even more importantly, those two games were missed opportunities to log victories over teams ranked in the Top 25 of the RPI, a key statistic used by the NCAA Selection Committee when choosing teams to put in the tournament.

While the Iowa State Cyclones are currently just 52nd in the RPI, tonight’s game still amounts to a must-win. Against Top 100 RPI competition, the Longhorns are 1-6, with only eight more games against Top 100 teams left on the schedule. Five of those are at the Erwin Center, so Texas must defend home court against quality competition, a trend they can start tonight.

The first meeting

The Longhorns looked to be in a good position when Iowa State do-everything star Royce White was saddled with two early fouls. Unfortunately, the Cyclones made up for their MVP’s absence by torching the Longhorns from long range. At half, Iowa State held a 10-point lead, thanks to an incredible 9-of-12 mark from behind the arc.

Texas roared back in the opening minutes of the second half, powered by a suddenly-rejuvenated J’Covan Brown. The Longhorns completely erased the deficit in less than three minutes, but the comeback bid stalled out following an ankle injury to Brown. The junior stayed in the game for a few more minutes, but was completely ineffective. When he headed to the bench for good, Texas trailed just 49-47. For the next six minutes, the Horns could only manage seven free throws, and Iowa State rebuilt a lead they would never relinquish.

The big story of the game for the Longhorns was the emergence of Clint Chapman. The fifth-year senior set career highs with 19 points and 14 rebounds, shooting 78% from the field. Texas made a concerted effort to get the big man involved early, and the Longhorn guards consistently found him open when they penetrated the lane. The game was clearly a turning point for Chapman, who has exploded in conference play, averaging 10.8 points and 6.8 rebounds in 27.7 minutes. In non-conference games, Chapman had scored just five points and grabbed 4.6 rebounds per game.

Since then…

Iowa State quickly proved that the win over Texas was no fluke, obliterating Texas A&M in College Station on the strength of a triple-double from White, who was still battling flu-like symptoms. The Cyclone schedule quickly toughened up and tested the surprise team, although the transfer-laden roster performed admirably in close games against Missouri and at Kansas. With their record leveled at 2-2, the Cyclones took care of business last week against lower-tier teams in Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, although it took a last-second, banked-in three by Scott Christopherson to knock off the Cowboys in regulation.

Royce White has been one of the Big 12’s best
(Photo credit: Orlin Wagner/Associated Press)

In conference play, White is averaging a double-double, scoring 12 points per game to go with 10.2 boards. His free-throw shooting, which has been a constant battle, continues to be subpar. The big man has made just 42.9% of his free throws in Big 12 play, so you can be sure that the Longhorns will be making him earn his points when he gets them out of position on defense.

Freshman Tyrus McGee has also increased his contributions in league play, earning Big 12 Rookie of the Week honors for stellar performances against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. McGee was a blistering 11-of-20 from long range and scored 37 points in the two games, and he also set a career-high with nine boards against the Cowboys.

McGee is not the only Cyclone killing it from long range, and as a result, Iowa State has actually increased the number of threes they attempt. In Big 12 play, the Cyclones have taken 44% of their shots from behind the arc, but when they make 38.8% of their attempts, you can’t blame them. In addition to McGee’s 48% mark in Big 12 games, Iowa State is also getting a solid 41.7% success rate from Christopherson.

Meet the Cyclones
For an in-depth look at the Iowa State roster, check out the game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

Keys to the game

1) Limit the damage from deep – When a team takes nearly half its shots from three-point range, there’s no way you can hope to completely shut down the perimeter. Instead, Texas must attempt to limit the damage that the Cyclones do from outside. Iowa State came out on fire against the Horns in Ames, so you would have to think that Texas will be playing much tighter on the perimeter in this one. If the Longhorns can hold Iowa State at or below their Big 12 rate of 38.8% behind the arc, they have to like their chances.

2) Be aggressive – Texas was able to penetrate at will during the first meeting when J’Covan Brown was in the game. He and Myck Kabongo will have to do the same tonight to ensure that the offense finds success. When teams cut off Texas’ dribble penetration and hedge hard on ball screens, the Longhorns often stand around for the majority of the shot clock before putting up a challenged shot. Texas obviously cannot afford to do that tonight, so the Horns will have to attack early.

3) Get to the line – Building off of the last point, the Longhorns need to earn a chunk of points at the charity stripe tonight. Texas has scored nearly 27% of its points from the line in conference play, thanks in large part to an impressive 76.4% mark at the stripe. With an offense that can often stall and lose all semblance of movement, manufacturing those points with free throws is key.

In the first meeting between these two teams, Sheldon McClellan did an excellent job earning the whistles, scoring 10 of his 14 points at the line, and the Horns scored nearly 34% of their points on free throws. Doing the same tonight will not only help Texas add to the point total, but it could also handcuff Royce White with foul trouble.

1.23.12
Posted by Ryan Clark at 7:42PM
TEAM W L LAST WEEK THIS WEEK
Kansas 6 0 W vs. BU, 92-74; W at UT, 69-66 Mon vs. A&M; Sat at ISU
Missouri 5 1 W vs A&M, 70-51; W at BU, 89-88 Wed at OSU; Sat vs. Tech
Baylor 4 2 L at KU, 92-74; L vs. Mizzou, 89-88 Tue at OU; Sat vs. UT
Iowa State 4 2 W vs. OSU, 71-68; W at Tech, 76-52 Tue at UT; Sat vs. KU
Kansas State 3 3 W vs. UT, 84-80; W at OSU, 66-58 Wed at Tech; Sat vs. OU
Texas 2 4 L at KSU, 84-80; L vs. KU, 69-66 Tue vs. ISU; Sat at BU
Oklahoma State 2 4 L at ISU, 71-68; L vs. KSU, 66-58 Wed vs. Mizzou; Sat at A&M
Texas A&M 2 4 L at Mizzou, 70-51; W vs. OU, 81-75 (OT) Mon at KU; Sat vs. OSU
Oklahoma 2 4 W vs. Tech, 66-54; L at A&M, 81-75 (OT) Tue vs. BU; Sat at KSU
Texas Tech 0 6 L at OU, 66-54; L vs. ISU, 76-52 Wed vs. KSU; Sat at Mizzou

Texas A&M at Kansas; Monday, 8:00 P.M. CT (ESPN)
Most Longhorn fans remember that their favorite team’s victory at Allen Fieldhouse last year was the first in 70 tries for Kansas road opponents. What some may not recall is that the previous team to knock off the Jayhawks in Lawrence was the Texas A&M Aggies, all the way back on February 3rd of 2007. This year’s A&M team has been a massive disappointment, struggling to a 2-4 conference start despite returning one of the top two nuclei in the Big 12. The Aggie offense is only one spot out of the cellar in the Big 12 rankings, so it could be a very rough night for A&M against a Kansas defense that is one of the three toughest in the nation.

Baylor at Oklahoma; Tuesday, 7:00 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
Baylor set a school record with their 17-0 start, but took it on the chin in their first two battles with the other conference contenders. The Bears hung with Kansas at Phog Allen for a half last Monday, but fell apart down the stretch. Porous defense at home against Mizzou ended in a one-point loss, putting Baylor two games out of first place after one-third of the conference slate. If the Bears are to remain contenders, they have to defend their home court and avoid laying any eggs against the league’s lesser teams on the road. The Sooners might be just 2-4 in conference play, but they have one of the top 15 offensive rebounding marks in the country, something that could be a major boost against a Baylor team that is surprisingly ineffective on the defensive glass.

Iowa State at Texas; Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. CT (Longhorn Network)
A full preview of the Iowa State/Texas game will be available on Tuesday.

Missouri at Oklahoma State; Wednesday, 6:30 P.M. CT (ESPN2)
Like Baylor, the Tigers have to take care of business if they want to keep pace with Kansas. The Tigers and Jayhawks still have both games of the Border War series left to play, so winning against the conference’s bottom feeders will keep Mizzou in prime position to make a move with head-to-head victories over KU. The biggest knock on the Tigers coming into this season was their lack of a post presence following the injury of Laurence Bowers, but Flip Pressey and the Mizzou guards are making big man Ricardo Ratliffe look like an All-American. He’s already been putting up incredible numbers against the big frontlines of Kansas State and Baylor, so one can only imagine what he’ll do against an undersized Oklahoma State squad.

Kansas State at Texas Tech; Wednesday, 8:00 P.M. CT (ESPNU)
The Red Raiders have an offensive efficiency mark in the bottom 100 of D-I hoops, turn it over on more than a quarter of their possessions, and are one of the worst 15 teams in the nation when it comes to putting opponents on the foul line. That’s a recipe for disaster against a Kansas State team that bruises their way to the line and shuts down opponents with a stifling defense that forces miscues. Of course, United Spirit Arena is always good for an upset or two, and Tech has hit nearly 37% of their threes on the season. As many teams discover in conference play, oftentimes all it takes to get surprised on the road is for a team to heat up from long range. If the Wildcats can limit the perimeter damage, their physical advantages should be enough to avoid an unfortunate roadblock.

1.21.12
Posted by Ryan Clark at 11:05AM

#7/7 Kansas Jayhawks (15-3 overall, 5-0 Big 12) at Texas Longhorns (12-6, 2-3)
Frank Erwin Center | Austin, TX | Tip: 3 P.M. CT | TV: CBS
LRT Consecutive Game #205

The Longhorns return to the Erwin Center after a difficult two-game road trip, but simply returning to a friendly arena won’t make things any easier. This afternoon, Texas has the unenviable task of squaring off with the league-leading Kansas Jayhawks, who arrive in Austin on five days’ rest and riding high after an authoritative win over previously-undefeated Baylor.

We’ve made much of the tough six-game stretch that Texas is currently in the midst of, but this afternoon marks the first of three home games out of the team’s next four contests. While knocking off Kansas, Iowa State, or Missouri won’t be easy — even at home — if the Longhorns are to add to their weak NCAA résumé, the Erwin Center is the most likely place to do it.

Bill Self has silenced the doubters this year
(Photo credit: Orlin Wagner/Associated Press)

The Jayhawks have won all three of their true road games so far this season, but all three wins came against rather weak competition. Southern Cal, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech have an average KenPom rank of 154 in D-I hoops, while the Longhorns currently check in at 25th in Pomeroy’s rankings. Kansas has knocked off big-name teams already this year in the likes of Georgetown, Ohio State, and Baylor, but none came in a true road environment.

By the numbers

For the last seven seasons, the Jayhawks have either won or shared the league’s regular season title, and have added five conference tournament championships during that same stretch. Many observers, myself included, thought that this year would be the season Kansas was finally knocked off of its throne atop the Big 12. Kansas lost four of five starters from last year’s Elite Eight team, but Bill Self has done a phenomenal coaching job to keep his team among the nation’s elite.

Kansas is one of just three teams to have both their adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies ranked in the top ten of Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. That unstoppable offense and suffocating defense add up to a scoring differential of +0.331 point per possession. Even in their first five conference games, which included contests against Baylor and Kansas State, the Jayhawks still have an impressive differential of +0.274.

Kansas has a Player of the Year candidate in Thomas Robinson down low, and his imposing presence is a big reason why the Jayhawks have one of the nation’s five best marks in two-point field-goal defense. On offense, his dominance also has helped Kansas post a 54.4% shooting percentage inside the arc, and allowed the Jayhawks to reclaim 37.1% of their missed shots. When a team shoots as well as Kansas does and gets a lot of second and third chances, it is very difficult to get a stop.

That rebounding advantage extends to the the other end of the court, as well, where the Jayhawks check in just outside the top 20 in defensive rebounding percentage. KU opponents snag just 27.5% of their offensive rebounding opportunities, making it very important for teams to be shooting well if they want to beat the ‘Hawks. Texas has actually done a very good job on the offensive glass so far this year, with a 39.7% mark that is 11th-best in the nation. If the Longhorns want to pull off the upset, they will have to continue to crash the glass and extend possessions against a tough Kansas D.

Meet the Jayhawks

When you introduce a guy as a contender for national Player of the Year, it goes without saying that he’s the star of his team. Already a dominant player as a sixth man last year, Thomas Robinson (No. 0) has taken over the role vacated by the Morris twins and has put up eye-popping numbers all season long.

T-Rob has logged thirteen double-doubles on the year, and actually averages one as well, scoring 17.8 points and 12.3 rebounds per game. Lest you think those numbers were built against creampuff opponents, it should be pointed out that his stats are even better against Big 12 foes. In five conference games, Robinson is averaging 18 points and 12.6 boards.

Robinson is nearly unstoppable on the glass, and has both a solid face-up game and quality post moves, making him a tough match-up for centers and and forwards of all types. The junior also can handle the ball pretty well, giving Kansas an additional player who can push the tempo and try to establish the break after turnovers and missed shots.

Tyshawn Taylor has been tough to stop this season
(Photo credit: Stephen Spillman/Lubbock Avalanche-Journal)

The only returning starter from last year’s team is senior Tyshawn Taylor (No. 10), who has had an up-and-down career in Lawrence. After a win over Kansas State, Coach Self said of his point guard, “He makes plays you can’t coach. And then he makes plays where it looks like he’s never been coached.”

That polarity has extended beyond the court, where Taylor has fought members of the football team, said he wanted to transfer on Facebook, and called out his critics on Twitter. Add all of those issues to the fact that sometimes Tyshawn struggles with turnovers, and there are times where the ever-obsessive Jayhawk Nation has been quite critical of their senior leader.

Last season, Taylor put up double-digit scoring lines in sixteen games, including a masterful 20-point, five-assist effort that powered Kansas to revenge and a Big 12 tournament title against Texas. This year, he’s turned those flashes of brilliance into a consistent scoring threat, chipping in 16.2 points per game. Taylor can slice through the defense with the dribble, drills nearly 45% of his long-range attempts, and always seems to come up with big buckets in the clutch.

Joining Taylor in the backcourt is Elijah Johnson (No. 15), who is also an adept ballhandler that can handle point duties. A highly-regarded recruit out of Las Vegas, Johnson struggled to find consistent playing time on an incredibly-loaded Kansas roster during his first two seasons. Now an everyday starter, he’s averaging nearly 10 points a game and provides excellent perimeter defense. While Johnson has only made 30% of his threes, he can heat up in a hurry, as evidenced by his 4-of-8 and 5-of-7 performances from long range against UCLA and Ohio State.

The third guard for Coach Self is Travis Releford (No. 24) a redshirt junior who is yet another slashing threat in the backcourt. At 6’5″, he’s also a quality rebounder at the guard position, snagging more than four boards per game to go with his 10 points. Like Johnson, Releford also plays solid defense on the perimeter, using his height and length to frustrate other guards and post a steal percentage of 2.7%.

In the middle, 7-footer Jeff Withey (No. 5) is the epitome of a role player. Playing only about 22 minutes per game, he still leads the Big 12 with more than three blocks per game and is a big part of Kansas’ dominance in the paint. Even when he’s not blocking shots, his simple presence in the lane can affect opposing offenses, and his 12.2% offensive rebounding percentage is tops on the team. One struggle for Withey this season has been foul trouble, but thanks to his limited minutes, he rarely actually fouls out of the game.

The sixth man for Kansas is Connor Teahan (No. 2), who makes a living on the perimeter. Although he is not the team’s best three-point shooter, he still takes 80% of his shots from behind the arc, and has knocked down 37.5% of them so far this year. Texas has to stay close to the senior guard and make him drive the basketball. Unfortunately, the Jayhawks are great at moving the ball quickly and crisply, so sticking in Teahan’s shirt will be a difficult task.

Kansas also uses a trio of reserves sparingly, getting a combined 26 minutes out of Kevin Young (No. 40), Justin Wesley (No. 4), and Naadir Tharpe (No. 1) in conference play. Young is an athletic forward who has rebounded very well after transferring from Loyola Marymount. Wesley is also a transfer forward, coming to Lawrence by way of Lamar. The younger brother of former Jayhawk Keith Langford, he’s a stout 6’8″, 220 pounds and excels at shot blocking. Tharpe will be the point guard of the future for KU and is extremely quick with the ball. For now, he is simply used to spell Taylor and Johnson for a few minutes each game.

Keys to the game

Texas needs to keep Thomas Robinson on the sideline
(Photo credit: Orlin Wagner/Associated Press)

1) Attack Robinson – There isn’t as much depth on this Jayhawk roster as in years past, and there’s certainly nobody on the bench who can match the skill level of Thomas Robinson. Texas benefited from getting K-State’s Jamar Samuels in foul trouble on Wednesday night, and they would see huge returns from doing the same against T-Rob this afternoon. The caveat here is that Myck Kabongo and J’Covan Brown must be smart about this approach, as both Robinson and Withey can easily block ill-advised shots.

2) Rattle Taylor – While Tyshawn has been a scoring machine as of late, he still has issues controlling the ball. When he is clicking and can dissect a defense, Kansas is practically unstoppable. The Longhorns must force Taylor into mistakes and keep him from feeling comfortable. If not, he and Robinson will likely put up video game numbers en route to an impressive road win.

3) Make it count behind the arc – Texas isn’t one of the best in the country when it comes to three-pointers, but against a stout interior D from Kansas, the Horns will have to knock down some outside shots. The Longhorns were a hot 9-of-16 from long range against Missouri last Saturday, but followed that up with an inefficient 7-of-22 against K-State on Wednesday. Brown was a big part of those long-range struggles against the Wildcats, so he and the Longhorns not only need to knock down their threes, but also make sure that they aren’t forcing up bad looks.

4) Build momentum early – The Frank Erwin Center has been more like a library the last two seasons, but the building has certainly been home to some electric atmospheres in the past, particularly when Kansas was in the house. Texas fans are the type to only cheer when given a reason to do so, which means the Horns need to come out hot if they want to get the full advantage of home court. Fall behind early — which is always a big danger against Kansas — and the apathetic Texas fanbase will likely start chatting about football recruiting news.

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