2.06.12
Posted by Ryan Clark at 11:20AM
TEAM W L LAST WEEK THIS WEEK
Missouri 8 2 W at UT, 67-66; W vs. KU, 74-71 Mon at OU; Sat vs. BU
Kansas 8 2 W vs. OU, 84-62; L at Miz, 74-71 Wed at BU; Sat vs. OSU
Baylor 8 2 W at A&M, 63-60; W at OSU, 64-60 Wed vs. KU; Sat at Miz
Iowa State 7 3 W vs. KSU, 72-70; W at OU, 77-70 Tue at OSU; Sat vs. A&M
Kansas State 5 5 L at ISU, 72-70; W vs. A&M, 64-53 Tue vs. Tech; Sat at UT
Texas 4 6 L vs. Miz, 67-66; W vs. Tech, 75-57 Mon at A&M; Sat vs. KSU
Oklahoma State 4 6 W at Tech, 80-63; L vs. BU, 64-60 Tue vs. ISU; Sat at KU
Texas A&M 3 7 L vs. BU, 63-60; L at KSU, 64-53 Mon vs. UT; Sat at ISU
Oklahoma 3 7 L at KU, 84-62; L vs. ISU, 77-70 Mon vs. Miz; Sat at Tech
Texas Tech 0 10 L vs. OSU, 80-63; L at UT, 74-57 Tue at KSU; Sat vs. OU

The big picture

The Iowa State Cyclones continued to keep themselves in the running for an improbable conference title, taking care of Kansas State at home before knocking off OU on the road. The home victory against Kansas State came after the ‘Clones had trailed by as much as 14 early in the second half. Royce White hit the game-winner at the last second after pump-faking Rodney McGruder out of his shoes, giving the sophomore the most important two points of his 22 that night. Saturday’s win was equally impressive, as Iowa State used a barrage of threes to make up for the fact that White only took — and made — one shot. Now just one game out of first place, the Cyclones have to avoid stumbling on the road against lesser foes if they want to keep their hopes of a miracle title intact.

One team that Iowa State could catch over the next week is Baylor. The Bears have a tough week ahead, as they host Kansas on Wednesday before traveling to Missouri on Saturday. Those two teams are the only ones to have knocked off Baylor so far this season, and the Bears looked rather vulnerable over the last week. As has been the case all season, Baylor made things interesting against both A&M and Oklahoma State, but emerged victorious in both road tests. The Bears defeated the Aggies and Cowboys by a combined seven points, pushing their record in two-possession games to 7-1 on the year.

At the bottom of the standings, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech all went 0-for-2 on the week, increasing the odds that they will all be playing on the first day of the Big 12 Championship. The Red Raiders are now eight games away from the dreaded 0-for-conference mark, something that hasn’t happened in the Big 12 since Melvin Watkins and the Aggies went 0-16 in the 2003-04 season, followed by a first-round exit in the conference tournament. Tech still has home games remaining against both A&M and Oklahoma, which provide the team’s best chances to avoid history. “Best” is a relative term in this case, as Ken Pomeroy still only gives the Red Raiders less than a 30% chance to win each game.

Mid-week games

Missouri at Oklahoma; Monday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPNU)
The Tigers are coming off of an emotionally-charged victory over hated rival Kansas on Saturday, and have another big home game against Baylor coming up this Saturday. If there were ever a game that Missouri might get caught overlooking, this would be it. Unfortunately, Lon Kruger and the Sooners are far too good for anyone to take a night off when facing them. Oklahoma hung tough with Kansas in the first half of both of their meetings this season, and kept things close with Baylor until late in the game. If the Tigers aren’t ready from the opening tip, they could go 0-2 in their visits to the state of Oklahoma this season.

Fortunately for Missouri, star Marcus Denmon seems to have broken out of his slump. After shooting 11-for-43 (25.6%) from the field against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Texas, the senior guard carried the Tigers to victory in the final minutes against Kansas. Denmon shot 62.5% from the floor en route to a 29-point performance, his second-best scoring output of the season, eclipsed only by a 31-point game in an early December win over Northwestern State.

Texas at Texas A&M; Monday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPN)
The LRT preview of the Texas/Texas A&M game will be available later today.

Iowa State at Oklahoma State; Tuesday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPN2)
The Cyclones of Transfer U, led by Fred Hoiberg, have made quite an impression in Big 12 play. After early-season losses to Drake and Northern Iowa, the Cyclones seemed destined for another season near the cellar of the conference. Instead, all of the new faces in the red and gold have finally gelled, and Iowa State is now firmly situated on the right side of the bubble discussion. Iowa State is 4-1 at home in conference play, with their only road losses coming against Texas and Kansas. If the Cyclones can continue to take care of business on the road in games like this one, their home-court advantage will keep them right in the mix with the Jayhawks, Bears, and Tigers at the top of the standings.

Of course, the Cowboys have looked quite intimidating at home lately. The Pokes notched a big upset over Missouri nearly two weeks ago, and had Baylor in danger on Saturday. The emergence of Markel Brown coupled with Le’Bryan Nash finally living up to the hype has made Oklahoma State a scary team to face, even with their depth concerns. The Cyclones aren’t built to take advantage of OSU’s thin frontcourt, so this one will likely be a dogfight until the final buzzer. Brown and Nash have combined to average 32.8 points over the team’s last four games. If they can keep up that kind of output down the stretch, OSU is going to be a tough out in every single game.

Texas Tech at Kansas State; Tuesday, 7 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
Texas Tech could not have come to town at a better time for Frank Martin and the Wildcats. K-State has dropped two of its last three games, with road trips to Texas, Baylor, and Missouri coming over the next two weeks, sandwiched around a home date against Kansas. The Wildcats have slipped from the top four in the league standings to sole possession of fifth, two games behind the Cyclones and just one ahead of the Longhorns and Cowboys. Kansas State has a strong profile to make its case for the NCAAs, but a dive-bomb over the final few weeks of the season could make things dicey. A dominating win on Tuesday night against an overmatched Texas Tech squad should do wonders for rebuilding the confidence of the KSU players before they face a very tough stretch of the schedule.

Kansas at Baylor; Wednesday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPN)
The first of two huge games for Baylor and the Big 12 comes on Wednesday night at the Ferrell Center in Waco. Last year, these two teams met with just as much fanfare in a Big Monday showdown in Waco. Kansas quickly put any questions of league supremacy to rest with an 85-65 blowout win, perhaps the turning point in a season that quickly went downhill for Baylor.

This year, the situation was similar, although the location had changed. Baylor came into Allen Fieldhouse on MLK Day with an unblemished record and a gaudy national ranking. The first half of the game was what everyone had hoped for, but an incredible performance by Tyshawn Taylor fueled the rowdy home crowd and propelled the Jayhawks to an 18-point victory. The Bears have been tested by many of the league’s middle-tier and lower-tier teams. The real question is whether Baylor plays to the level of its competition, or if this supremely talented bunch just lacks a killer instinct to put games away. Against a team like Kansas, the Bears have to hope it’s the former.

2.04.12
Posted by Ryan Clark at 2:12PM

Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-14 overall, 0-9 Big 12) at Texas Longhorns (13-9, 3-6)
Frank Erwin Center | Austin, TX | Tip: 6 P.M. CT | TV: Longhorn Network
LRT Consecutive Game #209

The Longhorns return to action tonight at the Erwin Center, having finally completed a brutal six-game stretch that was among the toughest in the country. Unfortunately, Texas had ample opportunity to steal a win or two against top-tier competition, but came up short almost every time. Only a home victory over Iowa State kept the Longhorns from an ugly six-game losing streak, and provided them with one more W against the RPI Top 50.

Now, the schedule get easier for Texas. The team’s nine remaining games come against squads with a combined record of 32-49 in Big 12 play. While the Longhorns won’t be able to just walk into Lloyd Noble Center, Reed Arena, or Gallagher-Iba Arena and expect to be handed wins, they are certainly capable of logging those road victories. Add in a pair of chances for revenge at home against Kansas State and Baylor — two teams who beat the Horns by just nine combined points — and it’s easy to see that all is not lost quite yet for Texas.

If you think of these final nine games as a new season for the Horns, Texas Tech provides the perfect opening opponent. The Red Raiders are winless in league play, and have a 45.4% chance to finish the year with an 0-18 mark, according to Ken Pomeroy. For a Texas team that may have had its confidence shaken by a handful of last-second losses over the last three weeks, Texas Tech provides an excellent chance to get their mojo back.

By the numbers

Robert Lewandowski is the team’s lone senior
(Photo credit: Zach Long/Associated Press)

The Red Raiders are the league’s most inexperienced team, with eight freshmen and three sophomores on the roster. Just three players return from last year’s team, which finished 5-11 in Big 12 play and lost in the first round of the league’s tournament.

The Red Raiders aren’t a terrible shooting team, but they are incredibly inconsistent. The only thing they have been able to do consistently this season is turn it over, something they do on almost 26% of their possessions. Of the 345 teams in Division I, there are only five that waste possessions more frequently than Texas Tech.

When the Red Raiders do hang on to the basketball, they oftentimes have only one opportunity to score. Texas Tech reclaims just 26.8% of its missed shots, a mark that ranks the team 314th in D-I hoops. Unless the Red Raiders come out on absolute fire from the field, the stats don’t give them much of a chance for an upset this evening.

Another statistic that could make the upset difficult for the Red Raiders is their tendency to shoot from inside the arc. Although they make a respectable 36.6% of their three-point attempts, they take only 26.6% of their shots from long range. For a Texas team that has been torched by the threes of Iowa State and Mizzou, that is a great sign.

The Longhorns will also benefit from Tech’s bad habit of sending opponents to the line. Although Texas has left some valuable points at the charity stripe over its last three games, the team still has a success rate of nearly 72% from the line. Combine that with the fact that the Red Raiders give opponents one free throw for every two shots, and you have a recipe for tons of easy Longhorn points this evening.

Meet the Red Raiders

With a young, inexperienced team and a first-year coach in Billy Gillispie, minutes are up for grabs on the High Plains. Coach Gillispie has used 12 different starting lineups this season, and 10 Red Raiders average at least 11 minutes per game in conference play. He is still searching for a winning formula, and it’s clear that no player is above spending some time on the bench in order to learn a valuable message.

The team’s lone senior is big man Robert Lewandowski (No. 15), whose own inconsistent play mirrors the team as a whole. The 6’10” Kansas native has a good stable of post moves and can easily knock down mid-range jumpers. Unfortunately, he rarely puts it together for more than a game at a time, and often takes himself out of games with early foul trouble. The big man has also had some issues making quality entry passes when he’s in the high post, which is problematic on a team that loves to run the high-low game like Tech does.

With Lewandowski oftentimes ineffective, sophomore forward Jaye Crockett (No. 30) is having to pick up the slack. He loves to use the spin move for turnaround jumpers against bigger defenders, but also knows when to isolate on the block against smaller opponents. Crockett also can knock down the long baseline shot or elbow J, which some teams have dared him to take. In conference play, he’s leading the team with seven boards and more than 11 points per game.

The only other player consistently getting rebounds for the Red Raiders is freshman Jordan Tolbert (No. 32). Although he’s only 19 years old, Tolbert already has the chiseled body of a senior forward, and he’s used it to make an immediate impact at the college level. Tolbert is strong enough to score and rebound against the big men in a tough Big 12, and as a result he’s snagging almost six boards per game against league opponents.

Beyond those three, the Red Raiders have no real depth in the frontcourt. Freshman Terran Petteway (No. 2) fits best as a small forward, and although he’s strong enough to bang inside, he’s struggled against Big 12 frontcourts. He let his frustrations get out of hand in a blowout loss to Kansas, when he punched Connor Teahan in the head to earn an ejection and one-game suspension. Petteway has a pretty good jump shot and adequate handles, so when he puts it all together he should be a reliable slashing threat who can finish through contact.

Jaron Nash (No. 44) is another option at small forward, but he sees very little playing time. A transfer from Tyler Junior College, he’s long and athletic, but has yet to find his niche with this squad.

In the backcourt, Canadian product and Midland College transfer Ty Nurse (No. 4) is the team’s most dangerous long-range threat. He’s knocked down more than 38% of his three-point attempts, including an impressive 6-of-9 performance in the season opener against Troy. Nurse is also practically automatic at the line, having made 92.5% of his freebies this year.

When Bean Willis attacks, the Tech offense finally clicks
(Photo credit: Zach Long/Associated Press)

Guard Javarez “Bean” Willis (No. 5) is quick and shifty with the ball, and is one of the team’s only quality penetrating threats. When Willis is aggressive with the ball, he’s able to find good looks for himself and his teammates, but it seems like he fails to flip that switch most of the time.

Freshman Kevin Wagner (No. 10) is another quick, talented guard who has worked his way into the starting lineup for the last three games. A hometown kid, the former Lubbock Estacado star is generously listed at 5’8″, and would likely lead the team in assists if he were playing more. His assist rate of 21.9% is best on the team, so despite averaging just about 15 minutes per game, he’s still near the top of the team leaderboard in that category.

Another freshman making an impact is DeShon “Biggie” Minnis (No. 3), who is one of the best rebounders in the backcourt for Tech. At 6’3″, the Philadelphia native is snagging nearly three boards in each Big 12 game and has parlayed that tenacity into four starts against conference opponents.

The Red Raiders are also getting about 11 minutes each from freshmen Luke Adams (No. 13) and Clark Lammert (No. 35). Adams is one of only two deaf players at the Division I level, and he wears cochlear implants along with a headband to help hold them steady. Although he’s listed at just 5’9″, Adams is a solid back-up at the point and has a quality jumper, even if he sometimes is a bit too eager to take the shot. Lammert is the older brother of future Longhorn Connor Lammert, and his height combined with a good long-range shot helps stretch the defense.

Keys to the game

1) Neutralize Lewandowski – There are a multitude of ways that the Longhorns can take the Tech big man out of the game, but the key is to get him uncomfortable early. Whether they achieve that by attacking him and drawing fouls or by forcing him off the block on offense, it doesn’t really matter. Texas just needs to make sure that Big Lew doesn’t get clicking early, because without him, the Red Raider offense usually grinds to a halt.

2) Keep Nurse off the perimeter – One of the easiest ways to get knocked off by an inferior opponent is to give up a ton of three-point shots. Ty Nurse is Tech’s best option from long range, and he’s coming in with the hot hand. In the team’s last two games, Nurse was 5-of-11 from beyond the arc, so the Longhorns have to make sure he doesn’t continue his success tonight.

3) Be aggressive – Tech’s defense constantly rewards opponents with trips to the charity stripe, so the Longhorns need to take full advantage by getting a piece of the paint. J’Covan Brown, Myck Kabongo, Julien Lewis, and Sheldon McClellan need to put the ball on the floor and drive to the bucket consistently. Not only will it lead to a ton of free points, but it can put the thin and already-undersized Tech frontcourt in foul trouble.

1.31.12
Posted by Ryan Clark at 6:31PM
TEAM W L LAST WEEK THIS WEEK
Kansas 7 1 W vs. A&M, 64-54; L at ISU, 72-64 Wed vs. OU; Sat at Miz
Missouri 7 2 L at OSU, 79-72; W vs. Tech, 63-50 W at UT, 67-66; Sat vs. KU
Baylor 6 2 W at OU, 77-65; W vs. UT, 76-71 Wed at A&M; Sat at OSU
Iowa State 5 3 L at UT, 62-55; W vs. KU, 72-64 Tue vs. KSU; Sat at OU
Kansas State 4 4 W at Tech, 69-47; L vs. OU, 63-60 Tue at ISU; Sat vs. A&M
Texas A&M 3 5 L at KU, 64-54; W vs. OSU, 76-61 Wed vs. BU; Sat at KSU
Oklahoma State 3 5 W vs. Miz, 79-72; L at A&M, 76-61 Tue at Tech; Sat vs. BU
Oklahoma 3 5 L vs. BU, 77-65; W at KSU, 63-60 Wed at KU; Sat vs. ISU
Texas 3 6 W vs. ISU, 62-55; L at BU, 76-71 L vs. Miz, 67-66; Sat vs. Tech
Texas Tech 0 8 L vs. KSU, 69-47; L at Miz, 63-50 Tue vs. OSU; Sat at UT

The big picture

Five days ago, it looked like the Kansas Jayhawks could be well on their way to yet another conference title. They had taken care of the Baylor Bears at home, knocking the upstarts from Waco out of the ranks of the undefeated. Five days later, the Bears suffered another setback at home against Missouri, putting them a full two games back of KU. The Tigers had already stumbled on the road to Kansas State early in the conference season, and hoped to keep the Jayhawks within reach heading into their home-and-home series. Instead, Oklahoma State gave the Jayhawks even more padding in the standings by pulling off a big upset over the Tigers at Gallagher-Iba Arena.

With a two-game cushion, the Jayhawks had slight room for error. Unfortunately, they used their mulligan right away, tripping up on the road against Iowa State on Saturday. Missouri looked shaky in wins over Texas Tech and Texas, but managed to stay just a half-game behind their rivals. With the Jayhawks facing Missouri, Baylor, and Kansas State on the road over the next two weeks, things are about to get very interesting.

In the middle of the standings, Kansas State suffered a home loss to the Sooners, giving OU a season sweep of the Wildcats. Coupled with Iowa State’s statement win over the Jayhawks, it looks like there could soon be a very clear division between the league’s top four teams and its bottom six. If the Cyclones can take care of business at home against the ‘Cats tonight, it will only widen the gap.

Mid-week games

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech; Tuesday, 7 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)

Meteorologist and tempo-free guru Ken Pomeroy gives the Red Raiders a 29% chance to finish the Big 12 slate winless. Of course, their best chances to avoid the conference skunking is when playing some of the league’s other bottom feeders at the friendly confines of United Spirit Arena.

While Oklahoma State finally played up to expectations in their upset of Missouri last Wednesday, the Pokes have just a 2-9 record in games away from Gallagher-Iba. If Billy Gillispie and the Red Raiders are going to avoid a dubious historical distinction, this is one of their best chances to do so. Shut down Le’Bryan Nash, and Oklahoma State becomes a very pedestrian team.

Kansas State at Iowa State; Tuesday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
Kansas State has been one of the toughest teams to figure out in the Big 12. The Wildcats looked great in a home win over Missouri and played tough in a narrow loss to Baylor. But in two games against the Oklahoma Sooners, Kansas State looked like a completely different team. Frank Martin had his overachieving bunch in the top half of the league standings, but their recent schneid has them gravitating towards the mess at the bottom of the standings.

Tonight, the game could very well be won on the perimeter. Iowa State brings in a lofty 37.6% team mark from behind the arc, including a pair of guards in Scott Christopherson and sixth man Tyrus McGee who are making over 41% of their three pointers. Kansas State, meanwhile, has the 15th-best perimeter defense in the country, led by the quick hands of Martavious Irving. While all eyes will be on constant double-double threat Royce White, this one could be decided by the smallest guys on the floor.

Baylor at Texas A&M; Wednesday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPN2)

It wasn’t long ago that the Battle on the Brazos was turning into quite the basketball rivalry. In 2008, the teams played an unforgettable five-overtime thriller that was only seen by those in the building and those dedicated enough to watch an online stream from A&M’s website. Less than two months later, the rematch was a heated affair that involved benches clearing and bottles being thrown on the court, further fueling the hatred between the two fanbases.

With Texas A&M predicted by league coaches to win the Big 12, and with Baylor sporting a lineup rich with NBA prospects, this year’s pair of games appeared to be potential classics on paper. Instead, the Aggies have failed to live up to expectations, dropping to the bottom of the league standings. A&M’s move to the SEC next season means that this will be the last time these two teams play in the regular season for quite some time, but the apathetic Aggie fanbase doesn’t seem to care. Yesterday, A&M slashed upper-level tickets to just $10 for the final installment of this rivalry. It’s a sad way to see this entertaining series come to an end.

Oklahoma at Kansas; Wednesday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPNU)
The Jayhawks can’t get caught looking ahead to the Border War on Saturday, as Oklahoma has proven to be a dangerous team under first-year coach Lon Kruger. The first time these two teams met, the Sooners held a 34-33 edge at the break in Norman. Travis Releford led a second-half Jayhawk surge, scoring a career-high 28 points to lead his team to the road win.

Winning at Allen Fieldhouse is a nearly impossible task, but even Texas A&M made the Jayhawks sweat last Monday when they brought an injured team to Lawrence and fought Kansas until the final minutes. The Sooners are fresh off a road win against Kansas State, so their confidence won’t be lacking in this one. While Oklahoma probably doesn’t have the horses to pull off the improbable upset, they can certainly be competitive with the Jayhawks.

1.31.12
Posted by Ryan Clark at 10:26AM

#4/4 Missouri Tigers 67, Texas Longhorns 66

If the sport were horseshoes or hand grenades, these Texas Longhorns would be All-Stars. Instead, Texas fans were treated to another verse of the same old song, as their team made another furious late-game comeback, only to come up short in a 67-66 loss.

Down 10 with just less than four minutes left, the Longhorns quickly erased the deficit, taking the lead on a leaner by J’Covan Brown with 56 seconds to go. Missouri’s Michael Dixon responded on the other end, tossing in a layup with 31 seconds left to put the Tigers back on top.

Myck Kabongo’s final shot couldn’t find the mark
(Photo credit: Michael Thomas/Associated Press)

On the final possession, Texas spread the floor against a surprise zone defense, with the ball coming to Brown with just over 12 seconds left on the clock. The Tigers pushed out in a two-man trap, and Brown whipped a cross-court pass to Myck Kabongo, who had to leap to keep the ball in play. His baseline drive and jumper fell short, and Texas dropped to 0-7 in games decided by six points or less.

What looked good

The Texas defense in the first half was stifling. After being torched early in the teams’ first meeting in Columbia, the Longhorns were prepared to shut down the nation’s second-best offense. Texas defenders stayed in the shirts of the Missouri shooters on the perimeter, forcing them to pass it around.

Although there were a few possessions in which a Tiger slashed to the rack unchallenged, it was a vast improvement over the first meeting between the two teams. In fact, the Tigers were held to just 0.834 points per possession in the first half, well off their season average of 1.22.

The Longhorns capitalized on that tough defense by closing out possessions with rebounds. They dominated the glass on both ends of the floor, limiting Missouri to an offensive rebounding percentage of just 21.4%, while reclaiming 44.4% of their own misses. That workmanlike effort on the boards equated to a sizeable 22-6 advantage for Texas in second chance points.

Freshman Jonathan Holmes was the team leader in boards, snagging nine on the night. His effort on the glass led to easy putback points, and he was able to log seven points for the game. Unfortunately, he also led the team in turnovers with five, which was absolutely crippling in a game decided by one point.

Fellow freshman Jaylen Bond was also tenacious inside. He ripped down seven rebounds in just 14 minutes on the court and came up with two clutch buckets following offensive rebounds. Tempo-free stats underscore just how important Bond was during his short time on the court, as his personal offensive rebounding percentage was an incredible 23.8%, while his defensive was 40.8%.

The Longhorns also benefitted from aggressive play by Julien Lewis, who repeatedly attacked with drives from the corner. He started coming on strong in the second half of the Baylor game, and that confidence seemed to carry over into this one. Lewis led the way early for the Horns, seeming to be the only consistent scorer in a first half where the team had troubling putting the ball in the hoop. In the end, the freshman finished with 12 points on 44% shooting, a much more efficient contribution than his early performances in Big 12 play.

Julien Lewis attacked the rim for Texas
(Photo credit: Michael Thomas/Associated Press)

Big men Clint Chapman and Alexis Wangmene were a big part of Lewis’ success in this one, providing solid seals on the help defense when he drove to the rim. Chapman also showed off some agility with a few nice post moves, scoring six points in just 23 minutes on the court.

What needed work

Unfortunately, the fifth-year senior also had some tough moments on defense. In the first half, he let Ricardo Ratliffe establish very deep post position on a lob entry that had Coach Rick Barnes absolutely livid. He called an immediate timeout and angrily motioned Chapman to the bench with a jerk of the thumb. In the second half, Chapman was so intent on not letting Ratliffe get another easy bucket that he actually backed off a driving Tiger guard to prevent the dumpoff pass, instead giving up an uncontested layup.

Brown also played matador defense, although his struggles were much more consistent than Chapman’s. In the second half, he allowed Dixon to score in bunches. In the post-game press conference, Brown told the media, “I basically gave up half his points.” He couldn’t stay in front of Missouri’s speedy sixth man, letting Dixon spark a second-half scoring explosion for the Tigers.

Texas also did itself no favors with another rash of turnovers. In the first half, the Longhorns managed just 22 points, due in large part to a turnover rate close to 25%. For the game, Texas was able to push that mark down to just 19.9%, but those 13 miscues turned into 14 Tiger points. Perhaps the most frustrating was a second-half turnover by Myck Kabongo, who compounded his error by intentionally fouling Phil Pressey to give the Tigers two shots and the ball.

The Texas offense didn’t just bog down solely due to turnovers. The Longhorns often tried to establish Chapman or Wangmene in the post, but entry passes from the wing were simply not available. Typically, the big would then move out to the perimeter to set a ball screen, but the driving lanes were usually cut off by Missouri defenders.

Instead of reacting to the Tiger defense with quick ball movement, the Longhorns spread out the floor and played isolation basketball. With the team’s only buckets coming from one-on-one drives and offensive putbacks, Texas actually headed to the locker room without a single assist. They didn’t do much better in the second half, adding just five assists, one of them coming on a three-man fast-break.

For the third consecutive game, free throws were an albatross for the Longhorns. The team shot just 66.7% from the line, leaving eight freebies on the table. Texas did a great job of attacking and earning trips to the line, but did not take advantage of their edge in free throw attempts. You could even say the Longhorns left a ninth point at the line, as one of those misses came when Wangmene couldn’t hit the front end of a one-and-one.

In the last three games, the Longhorns have made just 63.2% of their free throws, a sharp decline from the season average of 73.2% that they carried into the first of those three games. For much of the season, the one thing that the Texas offense could count on was an ability to manufacture points at the line. Instead, trips to the charity stripe have become a scary proposition during the most important part of the season.

Finally, it must be noted that once again the Longhorns looked completely lost on the final possession of a close game. It’s one thing to lose a lot of close ones when the breaks just don’t go your way, but Texas has repeatedly failed to get good looks late in the game. The final possession against Kansas State resulted in a turnover and fast-break bucket, while Brown felt that his last-second three against Baylor wasn’t a bad look, despite Coach Barnes telling him the exact opposite.

Against the Tigers, the Longhorns had a play drawn up for both man and zone defenses. The Tigers came out in a zone look, and Texas spread the floor. Coach Barnes told the media that players weren’t making their cuts, which led to the breakdown. What he didn’t explain to reporters was why he didn’t use the team’s final timeout to regroup once he saw the players failing to make hard cuts. The Longhorns had more than 20 seconds left on the clock at the start of that final possession, but wasted thirteen of them before Brown’s risky cross-court pass set up Kabongo for his missed final shot.

The big picture

Clint Chapman and the Horns need a quick turnaround
(Photo credit: Michael Thomas/Associated Press)

Texas is rapidly running out of opportunities to log a signature win, with just two games against Top 5 opponents left on the docket. During the final two weeks of the season, the Longhorns host Baylor and travel to Phog Allen Fieldhouse. Kansas State also travels to the Erwin Center on February 11th, but their recent slide has nearly sent them out of the RPI Top 50.

Texas has almost no margin for error at this point, essentially needing to win every game outside of the Baylor and Kansas match-ups. The odds aren’t in their favor, as the Longhorns still have road trips left to A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. Despite all three programs having down years, those teams still defend their home court well, and a Texas road win is far from a guarantee.

If the Longhorns pulled off the improbable run and beat everyone left on the schedule not named Kansas or Baylor, it would put them at 20-9 overall. Even though losses to the Jayhawks and Bears would give them a respectable 20-11 record in this hypothetical, the Longhorns would still be left with just two or three wins against the RPI Top 50, with Temple being the team’s best win on the year.

The odds are long for Texas at this point, but with nine games left on the season, you can’t write Texas off just yet. If they can learn from all of these close losses and regroup in time to attack the favorable back half of their league slate, perhaps the Longhorns can finally put together a run.

Up next: vs. Texas Tech (7-13 overall, 0-8 Big 12); Saturday, 6 P.M. CT

1.30.12
Posted by Ryan Clark at 2:00PM

#4/4 Missouri Tigers (19-2 overall, 6-2 Big 12) at Texas Longhorns (13-8, 3-5)
Frank Erwin Center | Austin, TX | Tip: 8 P.M. CT | TV: ESPN
LRT Consecutive Game #208

In a season where the Texas Longhorns are at risk of losing their 13-year streak of NCAA tournament appearances, the young team has had more than its fair share of chances to notch marquee wins. On the road against Kansas State and Baylor, the Horns had the ball on the final possession with a chance to tie the game. Both times, Texas failed to come up with the clutch basket. At home against Kansas, the Longhorns led by four with 3:24 to play, but didn’t score another field goal en route to a crushing loss.

All of this late-game futility adds up to an 0-6 record in games decided by two possessions or less, a stat that will haunt Longhorn fans if their team ends up on the wrong side of the bubble. Texas is now just 1-5 in games against the RPI Top 50, an important metric used by the NCAA Selection Committee. Thanks to Iowa State’s upset win over Kansas, the Longhorns can add one more Top 50 win if the Cyclones can climb at least two spots in today’s RPI update.

Kim English and the Tigers have looked shaky lately
(Photo credit: L.G. Patterson/Associated Press)

Without knowing who Texas will face in the Big 12 Tournament, it appears that the Horns have four more opportunities against RPI Top 50 squads, with three of them coming at home. The next chance for a résumé-building win comes tonight, in the form of the Missouri Tigers. It may seem early to start calling games “must-wins,” but the Longhorns are quickly running out of time to make their case. Texas needs to get over the hump and start turning these close losses into big-time wins.

Meet the Tigers

For an in-depth look at the Missouri players, stats, and tendencies, check out the preview from the first game between these two teams.

The first meeting

Texas opened in a zone defense against the Tigers, and Missouri quickly made the Horns pay with an incredible 73% mark from behind the arc in the first 20 minutes. Texas fell behind by as much as 16 points in the first half, compounding the poor perimeter defense with a string of miscues on offense. The Longhorns ended 22% of their possessions with a turnover, including back-to-back first-half possessions that ended on a shot clock violation and a five-count.

Even with the turnovers, Texas posted one of its most efficient offensive performances in conference play. The Longhorns scored 1.135 points per possession, the second-best mark achieved against the Tigers all year. J’Covan Brown was a huge part of the success, scoring 34 points on 62.5% shooting from the field, including an 85.7% mark from long range. Myck Kabongo also came up big for the Horns, aggressively attacking the lane as he logged his first collegiate double-double.

For the Tigers, Flip Pressey was the catalyst. He scored seven points in a 50-second stretch just after the Longhorns had cut the lead to five in the second half, effectively icing the win for his team. Just a 26% three-point shooter on the season, he drilled 3-of-7 against the Horns and consistently sliced up the Longhorn defense, scoring 18 to go with 10 assists. Ricardo Ratliffe was the main benefactor of the great Missouri guard penetration, scoring 21 points on a 10-of-12 shooting day.

Since then…

Ricardo Ratliffe has become a monster for Mizzou
(Photo credit: Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press)

Ratliffe hasn’t slowed down since the win over Texas, earning Big 12 Conference Player of the Week honors for dominating performances against Texas A&M and Baylor. The big man scored 17 points and grabbed boards against the Aggies, then followed it up with a career-high 27 points in the road win over the Bears.

On Wednesday night, the Tigers suffered their second conference loss in a game where the importance of Ratliffe’s efficiency in the paint was underscored. Although he scored 25 points in the loss, his string of superhuman shooting percentages came to an end with a 10-of-17 line against Oklahoma State. It was the first time since the season opener that Ratliffe had missed more than three shots in a game.

The Tigers followed up the loss with a surprisingly close game against Texas Tech at home. The Red Raiders actually held the Tigers to just 1.03 points per possession, the team’s worst offensive efficiency number in their 19 wins. Tech limited Ratliffe to an eight-point, four-rebound afternoon, forcing the Missouri guards to carry the team. Kim English responded and knocked down 4-of-6 from behind the arc, but the rest of the Tigers were just 2-for-15 from long range. Missouri still held on for a 13-point win over the Red Raiders, but looked rather vulnerable heading into an important week where they travel to Texas and host Kansas.

Keys to the game

1) Stop dribble penetration – The four-guard look from Missouri was practically impossible for the Longhorns to stop when the teams met in Columbia earlier this month. As a result, the scrambling Texas defense was consistently out of position in the paint, leading to easy hoops for the guards and tons of points for Ratliffe. The Longhorns must stop the ball tonight and force the Tigers to beat them with contested jumpers, or else they will find themselves in another shootout with the nation’s second-most efficient offense.

2) Keep the backcourt humming – Both Brown and Kabongo had solid outings against Missouri the first time around, and both performed very well at Baylor on Saturday afternoon. If the pair of Longhorn guards can continue that high level of play against the Tigers tonight, the team should be able to find the same kind of offensive success that they did at Mizzou Arena. Throw in a little bit of defense, and that couldbe enough for a win this time around.

3) Chapman must avoid the whistles – In addition to the dribble penetration, the foul trouble that kept Clint Chapman on the bench gave Ratliffe and Steve Moore a hall pass in the lane. Chapman was again hounded by personals in the loss to Baylor on Saturday, and you can be sure that the Tigers will attack him tonight. The big man will have to be smart with his fouls and maximize his minutes if the Longhorns want to earn the upset.

4) Win the battle on the glass – Texas actually did a good job keeping Missouri off of the offensive glass during the first meeting, holding the Tigers to an offensive rebounding mark below 29%. Unfortunately, there weren’t many missed shots from Mizzou, so that strong performance on the boards didn’t amount to much. If the Longhorns can actually force some misses in this one, another solid night on the glass will make things much tougher for the Tigers this time around. The Horns should also be able to capitalize on the offensive end, as they reclaimed 47.1% of their misses in the first game and turned those extra chances into 17 points.

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