The past two summers have been a blur of rumors and news reports surrounding the massive wave of realignment hitting conferences from coast to coast. Two years ago, the Big 12 was on the verge of collapse after Colorado and Nebraska departed and four other league members weighed an exodus to what was then the Pac-10. This summer and fall, the league saw more changes with the SEC’s addition of Texas A&M and Missouri and the Big 12’s own inclusion of West Virginia and TCU. Elsewhere, the Big East expanded from one ocean to the other, while losing two of its basketball powerhouses to the ACC.

The unfortunate byproduct of this Conferencegeddon is the loss of historic rivalries. It appears all but certain that the Border War between Kansas and Missouri is now confined to the history books, while the long-standing series between Texas A&M and Texas is dead for the foreseeable future. Tonight marks the last time that the state’s two flagship schools will meet on the hardwood of the Frank Erwin Center for quite some time.

Beyond the historical implications, this game is huge for both teams. When you look beyond the bragging rights, it becomes apparent that both squads have to face this game as a “must win.” The Aggies are struggling, dropping their first two conference games after being picked by coaches to win the league title in the preseason. The offense is scuttling and the season is in danger of spinning down the drain if the Aggies cannot right the ship tonight.

The Longhorns, meanwhile, follow tonight’s game with a brutal six-game stretch that includes road trips to Missouri, Kansas State, and Baylor and home games against Kansas, Missouri, and Iowa State. The Bears, Tigers, and Jayhawks are three of the league’s best teams, if not its three best. Iowa State, meanwhile, surprised Texas in Ames and shellacked the Aggies in College Station. Even with solid performances, there is a very real possibility that the Longhorns could could still just get one or two wins during that stretch. If they can’t secure a win against A&M tonight before heading into that buzzsaw, it could be a very long conference season.

By the numbers

Texas A&M is having a lot of difficulty putting the ball into the basket, especially now that conference play has begun. The Aggies are in the bottom 100 of Division I hoops when it comes to adjusted offensive efficiency, scoring just 0.955 points per possession. In their two conference losses to Baylor and Iowa State, the offense is even worse, putting in just 0.773 points each time down the court.

A big part of this problem is the team’s reliance on long-range jumpers, with many of them coming from the “danger zone” just inside the arc. Those shots from 17 to 20 feet are nearly as tough as three-pointers, yet offer just the same amount of points as a layup. In addition to being an inefficient strategic choice, the reliance on long jumpers also produces less trips to the line. As a result, Texas A&M has one of the twenty worst free-throw rates in the country, taking just over one free throw for every four field goal attempts.

What keeps A&M in games is their stifling defense. The team’s adjusted defensive efficiency numbers are 35th best in the country according to Ken Pomeroy, built upon the strength of great team defense and rebounding. The Aggies have the perimeter absolutely locked down, with opponents making just 26.4% of their attempts, the 8th-best defensive mark in Division I. When opponents miss, the Aggies limit them to reclaiming just 27.7% of their misses, making them one of the 30 best defensive rebounding teams in the land.

Meet the Aggies

Coach Billy Kennedy has seen his bench shrink over the last few weeks, as big man Kourtney Roberson (No. 32) has been sidelined by an ankle injury, and freshman guard Jamal Branch elected to transfer to St. John’s. That leaves the Aggies with a core rotation of eight players, although Kennedy will likely use senior transfer Zach Kinsley (No. 23) and freshman Daniel Alexander (No. 20) for at least a few minutes each.

The Aggies are led by senior Dash Harris (No. 5), a true point guard. Harris doesn’t have a good jump shot and doesn’t often attack the rim, but he brings lockdown defense to the perimeter and facilitates the offense in the half-court sets. When Dash does drive the lane, he prefers to dish it to open teammates as the defense collapses, as evidenced by his season averages of 4.2 assists and 5.4 points per game.

Joining him in the backcourt is Elston Turner (No. 31), a Houston native who transferred to A&M from Washington. Turner brings the team its only true long-range threat, and he leads the Aggies with a 39.7% mark from behind the arc. Elston can also create by putting the ball on the floor, and has been the team’s most consistent scorer in what has been an anemic offensive year. Turner averages 13.3 points per game and is one of the team’s only good free throw shooters, knocking down more than 80% of his attempts.

Junior Khris Middleton (No. 22) is still working his way back from an early-season knee injury, so it’s been tough for him to match the numbers of his breakout sophomore season. Still, he’s managed to become the team’s second-leading scorer with 12.6 points per game. When Middleton slashes from the wings, he’s incredibly tough to defend. Unfortunately, his jumper is accurate from all over the floor, so teams can’t simply sag off to take away the drive. At 6’7″, he also provides solid rebounding from the wings, and is actually second on the team with five boards per game.

Inside, senior David Loubeau (No. 10) has a solid face-up game with a good jump shot that he can pop at a moment’s notice. The 6’8″ forward uses the threat of that jumper to stretch out the floor a bit, but still chips in nearly five rebounds a night. Alexis Wangmene has had issues defending face-up forwards, while Clint Chapman has been rather inconsistent against all types of opponents. This could turn out to be one of the key match-ups in the game.

Loubeau’s frontcourt sidekick is Ray Turner (No. 35) a 6’9″ junior from Houston. He’s really smooth with the ball for a big guy, so don’t be surprised when he shows off some nice, quick spin moves from the block. Turner also is the team’s best rebounder, ripping down 6.6 boards per contest, and is third on the team with 11.4 points per game. Just as with Loubeau, how the Horns handle Turner inside will have a big impact on this game.

Freshman Jordan Green (No. 13) is getting some extra playing time with Branch’s departure at midseason, and he’s now averaging more than 18 minutes per game. At 6’4″, Green is a freakish athlete with a great vertical, but it’s taken some time for him to adjust to playing at the college level. His shot was really ugly for the first few weeks of the season, while he’s had a consistent issue with hanging on tho the ball. His 27.3% turnover rate is by far the worst of the core rotation.

Junior wingman Naji Hibbert (No. 2) is having a tough time making shots this year, which is bad news for a guy who isn’t known as a penetrator. Hibbert has taken more than a third of his shots from behind the arc, but is shooting an abysmal 13.3% from long range. The Longhorns can definitely shade off of Hibbert when he’s on the court, perhaps making it a little easier to limit the Aggies inside.

The Aggies also have a solid center on the bench in Keith Davis (No. 4). He has yet to make a major offensive impact in his first year and a half at A&M, but has been a rebounding machine so far this season. Despite playing less than 16 minutes per game, Davis is averaging more than four boards per game, posting an incredible 20.1% mark on the defensive glass. If Davis had played just five more minutes so far this season, his defensive rebounding percentage would rank him among the top 150 players in the country.

Keys to the game

1) Crash the glass – The Aggie offense has been particularly bad in recent weeks, but the only thing keeping them from being downright abysmal has been an ability to earn second-chance points. Texas A&M reclaims nearly 35% of their missed shots, while the Longhorns have been near the bottom when it comes to defensive rebounding. When a team is struggling on offense, often a few easy buckets is all it takes to build some confidence. The Longhorns cannot afford to give A&M unchallenged putbacks, and they must limit second-chance points.

2) Attack with the dribble – If J’Covan Brown is back to full speed in this game, it will be even easier for the Longhorns to penetrate against the Aggies. If not, Myck Kabongo, Sterling Gibbs, and Sheldon McClellan will have to shoulder the load. Texas A&M has played sound defense all season, but they have shown lapses when faced with quick, driving guards. Iowa State’s Scott Christopherson repeatedly found his way to the rim on Saturday, so Texas fans will have to hope their guards can do the same tonight.

3) Avoid foul trouble – The Aggies have an advantage in the frontcourt tonight, one that will only be strengthened if the thin Longhorn roster is constrained by foul difficulties. Chapman, Wangmene, Jonathan Holmes, and Jaylen Bond are going to have their hands full on defense tonight, so they cannot afford to give up cheap fouls. Bond wasted a few of his personals on the offensive end in the loss to Iowa State, so he and the other Longhorn forwards must be more careful tonight.

TEAM W L LAST WEEK THIS WEEK Baylor 2 0 def. A&M, 61-52; def. Tech, 73-60 Tue. at KSU; Sat vs. OSU Iowa State 2 0 def. UT, 77-71; def. A&M, 74-50 Wed. vs. Mizzou; Sat. at KU Kansas 2 0 def. KSU, 67-49; def. OU, 72-61 Wed. at Tech; Sat. vs. ISU Kansas State 1 1 lost to KU, 67-49; def. Mizzou, 75-59 Tue. vs. BU; Sat. at OU Texas 1 1 lost to ISU, 77-71; def. OSU, 58-49 Wed. vs. A&M; Sat. at Mizzou Missouri 1 1 def. OU, 87-49; lost to KSU, 75-59 Wed. at ISU; Sat. vs. UT Oklahoma State 1 1 def. Tech, 67-59; lost to UT, 58-49 Mon. vs. OU; Sat at BU Oklahoma 0 2 lost to Mizzou, 87-49; lost to KU, 72-61 Mon. at OSU; Sat vs. KSU Texas A&M 0 2 lost to BU, 61-52; lost to ISU, 74-50 Wed. at UT; Sat. vs. Tech Texas Tech 0 2 lost to OSU, 67-59; lost to BU, 73-60 Wed. vs. KU; Sat. at A&M

The big picture

On paper, the new-look Big 12 appeared to be primed for its most exciting season yet. For the first time ever, the conference will use a full round-robin schedule, arguably the best way to determine a true league champion. Last year’s top two teams, Kansas and Texas, lost a combined nine of 10 starters, leaving the door open for a new champion. Returning stars made Texas A&M, Baylor, and Missouri contenders for the throne, while a bevy of talented transfers even gave Iowa State a threatening look. From top to bottom, the new Big 12 is as deep as it’s ever been, and more unpredictable than ever.

The first week lived up to expectations, with surprises both good and bad. Texas A&M, which shared the top slot in the pre-season coaches poll with Kansas, stumbled to an 0-2 start while dealing with personnel defections. The Cyclones, who finished dead last in the league a season ago, now find themselves in a three-way tie with Baylor and Kansas on top of the league. Meanwhile, Kansas State and Oklahoma, who were the league’s two big surprises in non-conference play, had to battle the league’s best right out of the gate.

With the smaller league, there are high-profile match-ups seemingly every day. There are still 16 more games to play, but the upcoming slate of mid-week contests should serve to clarify which early-season surprises are contenders and which are just playing over their heads.

Mid-week games

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State; Monday, 6:00 P.M. CT (ESPNU)
With Le’Bryan Nash arriving in Stillwater and the Sooners still rebuilding from the disastrous tenure of Jeff Capel, Tiny Gallon, and Tommy Mason-Griffin, it seemed like Bedlam might finally be tilting in Oklahoma State’s favor. A rash of injuries and transfers have left the Cowboys crippled, however, while new coach Lon Kruger and transfer Romero Osby have the Sooners skipping right past the entire rebuilding process.

Oklahoma played much better than expected in the non-con, but had the unenviable task of traveling to Columbia and then hosting Kansas to open league play. With that opening slate, it’s tough to tell if Oklahoma is truly as good as they looked for the first two months of the season. Gallagher-Iba is never an easy place to grab a win, but if the Sooners can do that very thing — and in a convincing fashion — it would certainly appear that they can competing right in the middle of the Big 12 pack.

Baylor at Kansas State; Tuesday, 7:00 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
The first of two big mid-week match-ups takes place at the Octagon of Doom, as the upstart Wildcats look to pull off a second-straight upset at home. The Bears are one of just three undefeated teams left in Division I, but they have typically struggled on the road under Scott Drew. Last season, Baylor was 3-10 in road or neutral-site games, but have passed some big tests away from the Ferrell Center this season. The Bears knocked off BYU in one of the toughest home courts in America and took care of West Virginia in an overtime thriller in Las Vegas.

Missouri at Iowa State; Wednesday, 7:00 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
Raise your hand if you had Iowa State tied for first with Baylor and Kansas after a week of league play. Now, raise your other hand if you’re a liar.

Fred Hoiberg‘s roster full of transfers is hitting its stride at just the right time, having taken care of both Texas and Texas A&M, the latter by 24 points. The schedule makers didn’t do the Cyclones any favors, though, as they face two of the league’s top teams this week. Like Baylor, Missouri has historically struggled when not playing in front of a home crowd, so perhaps the Cyclones can put the league on notice with a big win at Hilton Coliseum on Wednesday night. Royce White will undoubtedly be carrying the title of Big 12 Player of the Week into this one, as he averaged 12 points, 12 boards, and 6 assists in the team’s first two league victories.

Texas A&M at Texas; Wednesday, 8:00 P.M. CT (ESPN2)
A full preview of the A&M/Texas game will be available on Wednesday.

Kansas at Texas Tech; Wednesday, 8:00 P.M. CT (ESPNU)
The Jayhawks usually run into problems when they arrive on the High Plains, but it doesn’t look like Coach Bill Self has much to worry about this time around. Although they have been losers in three of their last four trips to Lubbock, the Jayhawks should be able to cruise to a win over a Texas Tech team picked by coaches to finish dead last in the conference. An almost completely-new Red Raider lineup is led by freshman Jordan Tolbert, who logged a double-double in his first career Big 12 game.

Heading into Saturday night’s match-up against Oklahoma State, the Texas Longhorns had never lost a home conference opener since the arrival of Rick Barnes on the 40 Acres, boasting a perfect 13-0 mark in those games. Of course, the Longhorns had also never struggled to a 30% shooting percentage in any of those games, either. Texas earned that ignominious distinction on Saturday night against Oklahoma State, but still managed to keep their perfect record intact, knocking off the Cowboys by a 58-49 count.

Texas missed its first eight shots from the field, and headed to the locker room having made just 21.2% of its shots. J’Covan Brown was a ghost offensively in the first half, as the ankle injury he suffered against Iowa State on Wednesday night was clearly bothering him. Despite that, the Longhorns were able to keep pace with the Cowboys thanks to excellent defensive rebounding and a stingy defense that constantly forced Oklahoma State into mistakes.

What looked good

Although Brown was hobbled by the ankle injury and finished with just six points, his performance was huge. In the first half, he came up with a basket-saving block after losing his man on a backdoor cut. Minutes later, he stripped the ball right out of Markel Brown‘s hands just after the Cowboy had secured a defensive rebound. Those kinds of heady, hustle plays defined Brown’s night.

Still noticeably limping throughout the game, Brown didn’t force anything. He attempted just five shots from the field, and all but one were good looks. His first bucket of the game didn’t come until 31 minutes into it, but it was a clutch three that put the Longhorns ahead with 8:41 to play. J’Covan found space on the wings in transition and spotted up for a nice feed by Myck Kabongo.

Jaylen Bond also made a big difference without piling up the points. He intercepted two Oklahoma State passes, and swiped another ball to notch a career-high with three steals. As always, he was tenacious on the glass, leading the Longhorns with nine rebounds in his 22 minutes. His defensive rebounding mark for the season climbed to 21.6%, putting him just outside the top 100 nationally.

Another freshman who worked hard on the glass was Jonathan Holmes, who grabbed only four rebounds off of the bench, but turned every single one of them into points. All of his boards came on the offensive glass, and he went up strong after each one, logging two buckets and drawing two fouls. All told, those four offensive rebounds turned into seven key points for the Longhorns.

The frontcourt didn’t just shine on the glass, as Alexis Wangmene was pretty much the only Longhorn who could make a shot in the early going. He knocked down a jumper from the free-throw line, and had an excellent run in transition for an old-fashioned three-point play. Although the senior was limited to just 14 minutes, his early work on the offensive end kept the Longhorns from getting into a deep hole in the first half.

The other thing that kept Texas from getting too far behind was stifling defense that forced 21 Oklahoma State turnovers. The Cowboys coughed it up on 31.8% of their possessions, by far their worst performance of the season. Texas forced travels, drew charges, and frequently jumped the passing lanes, constantly frustrating the visiting Pokes.

The Longhorns also kept Oklahoma State from getting too many offensive rebounds, allowing the Cowboys to reclaim just 28.1% of their shots. The one troubling thing in this department was that when the Horns did give up the board, it often led to very easy putbacks or nasty dunks by Michael Cobbins.

The big story of the game, however, was the solid showing by Kabongo. The freshman has certainly had his growing pains this season, and the last few weeks have been especially hard. Against the Cowboys, he made some great passes and finished with six assists against just one turnover. Had the Longhorns actually been knocking down shots, Kabongo likely would have even cracked double-digits in assists.

Where he did crack that double-digit barrier was points, as Kabongo’s aggressive play led to twelve trips to the line and a final total of 15 points. Myck has had trouble attacking inside in recent games, so it was certainly a confidence-booster for him to find success against Oklahoma State. There’s no doubt that these next three opponents will make things a little tougher for the freshman guard, but last night was a long-awaited step in the right direction.

What needed work

The obvious problem for Texas on Saturday night was an inability to knock down shots. The good thing is that the Longhorns were actually getting pretty good looks, even without a healthy Brown available to create with penetration. On a typical night, many of those shots would go down for Texas, so it was huge for the Longhorns to grind out a victory despite the ice-cold shooting.

Sheldon McClellan and Julien Lewis each had a second-consecutive rough outing, combining to go just 6-for-26 from the field. Against Iowa State, the pair was 4-of-19, giving them a field goal percentage of only 22.2% in their last two games. With Brown still injured and his effectiveness in question for Wednesday night’s game, the Longhorns desperately need these two freshmen to bounce back quickly.

Texas also left quite a few points at the free throw line, something which fortunately did not come back to haunt them in a close game. The Longhorns made just 65.5% of their free throws, well off the team’s season average of 71.5%. Bond missed both of his free throws, while Kabongo managed to sink just 67% of his attempts at the line. The Horns also lost a potential point when one of Wangmene’s foul shots was taken away thanks to a lane violation by Brown.

All things considered, the Longhorns were fortunate to earn a win. On a night where the team would shoot just 30% and get only six points and 26 minutes from J’Covan Brown, a victory would seem like a pipe dream. But the resolve shown by this young team — even against a scuttling Oklahoma State squad — is a great building block for the future. The Longhorns defended well, worked hard on the glass, and finally proved to themselves that they could win when things got tough.

Up next: vs. Texas A&M (9-5 overall, 0-2 Big 12); Wednesday, 8 P.M. CT

The NCAA tournament hopes of the Texas Longhorns took a hit on Wednesday night, as the young team let the opportunity for a precious road win slip away in Ames, Iowa. Predicted by many national pundits to be a bubble team, the Longhorns will need every win that they can get in Big 12 play, making the loss to Iowa State even more damaging. This evening, the team is back in action against the Oklahoma State Cowboys, another team that provides a ripe target for one of those important league victories.

By the numbers

Oklahoma State has played a challenging non-conference slate, but hasn’t fared well against the tougher teams on the schedule. The Cowboys are just 1-6 against opponents ranked in the Top 100 of Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. Of their other seven wins this year, one came against Langston University of the NAIA, and the remainder came against teams with an average KenPom ranking of 213.

The Cowboys haven’t been particularly efficient on offense, with their adjusted mark of 1.018 points per possession checking in just above the national median. What has kept Oklahoma State competitive is a solid defense, as opponents are scoring just 0.925 points per possession against the Pokes.

It should be noted that Oklahoma State’s solid defensive numbers are thanks in large part to dominating the worst teams on their schedule. In their seven wins, the Cowboys are limiting opponents to just 0.851 points per possession. In those six losses against Top 100 competition, their defense concedes 1.072 PPP. With the Texas offense checking in near the top of the efficiency rankings, it’s likely that they will put a performance similar to Oklahoma State’s other quality opponents.

With the ball, Oklahoma State is having a tougher time. As mentioned above, their overall efficiency numbers aren’t too far above the national median. Their shooting percentage and offensive rebounding numbers both put them in the bottom 100 of D-I hoops, but their lack of turnovers keeps the offense from really struggling. The Pokes have an eFG of just 45.7%, and reclaim only 27.1% of their rebounds. For a Texas team that has had issues defending the perimeter and cleaning the defensive glass, these are great numbers to see on the scouting report.

Meet the Cowboys

There was promise and hope in Stillwater during the offseason, as the arrival of highly-touted freshman Le’Bryan Nash (No. 2) made it appear that the Pokes could be a dark-horse contender in a wide-open Big 12. Instead, the team has been ravaged by injuries and departures, leaving head coach Travis Ford with a short, inexperienced bench.

In the last few weeks, both Reger Dowell and Fred Gulley announced their intentions to transfer, leaving Coach Ford without a single member of his 2009 recruiting class. Earlier this week, Jeff Goodman of CBS Sports wrote an excellent breakdown of Ford’s terrible track record of losing recruits, both at Oklahoma State and UMass.

In addition to all of the departures, Ford was also dealt a blow when Jean-Paul Olukemi tore his ACL in the final non-conference game against Virginia Tech. Not surprisingly, that severe of an injury has ended his season. The Pokes are also without nasty big man Darrell Williams, who has remained on the roster since rape charges were filed against him last season. His status with the team won’t be reviewed until the completion of his trial, which was originally scheduled to begin on Monday, but has been pushed back until May.

All told, that leaves the Cowboys with just an eight-man rotation, including five freshmen. Senior Keiton Page (No. 12) is the most experienced player left on the roster, and his recent hot streak has him leading the team with 14.5 points per game. He’s always been known as a three-point threat, but has had to develop more of a driving game during these last two seasons thanks to the team’s point guard issues. Without a true facilitator, Page could no longer camp out on the perimeter and play as simply a spot-up shooter.

Joining Page in the backcourt is redshirt freshman Brian Williams (No. 4). With Gulley and Dowell putting Stillwater in the rearview mirror, Williams earned his first career start against Texas Tech on Wednesday night. He struggled from the floor in his 26 minutes of action, knocking down just one of his six attempts.

On the wing, freshman Nash was expected to be a savior at Gallagher-Iba, but has yet to live up to expectations so far. At 6’7″, 230 pounds, Nash has the body to compete down low, but has the handles and jumper to stretch the floor and play outside. He’s second on the team with 12.4 points per game, but he’ll have to have a big performance tonight if Oklahoma State hopes to pull off the road win.

In the middle, junior transfer Philip Jurick (No. 44) is the second oldest player on the team. A four-star recruit out of Chattanooga, he originally committed to play for the Volunteers, but never played a single minute in Knoxville. He transferred to play junior college ball at Chattanooga State before ending up in Stillwater as the team’s center.

Jurick averages just over 18 minutes per game, but is still tops on the team with an average of six rebounds. The 6’11” big man is also a big part of the team’s defensive success, as his block percentage of 13.3% is 11th-best in the nation.

The team’s fifth starter will likely be Michael Cobbins (No. 20), a 6’8″ redshirt freshman who also is a shot-blocking threat. He was a highly-regarded recruit in high school, but a nasty knee injury ruined his senior year and necessitated last season’s redshirt.

Coming off the bench, freshman point guard Cezar Guerrero (No. 1)is fifth on the team in scoring with 7.5 points per game. Besides Page, he’s the team’s biggest threat from long range, where he’s launched nearly half of his attempts this year. He’s also incredibly quick with the ball, but has played a bit out of control so far this season. Thanks to the backcourt attrition, Guerrero will have to grow up quickly in Big 12 play.

Sophomore guard Markel Brown (No. 22) has started 11 of the team’s 14 games, but an injury forced him to be the sixth man in Wednesday’s win over Texas Tech. Brown, a former high school state champion in Louisiana, provides Oklahoma State with sound perimeter defense and valuable rebounding from the wings. With the team reeling and full of freshmen, the sophomore will have to step up as a leader down the stretch.

The only other Cowboy at Coach Ford’s disposal is Marek Souček, a Czech 7-footer who had made only three appearances for a total of six minutes during the team’s first 13 games. With Olukemi sidelined for the year, Souček was called upon for 15 minutes in the win over Tech, and responded well. As expected, he’s a true Euro-style big who is more comfortable on the perimeter and midrange than banging against big bodies in the paint.

Keys to the game

1) Establish the inside presence – With only Jurick and Souček providing size inside, the Longhorns need to get Clint Chapman started early, as they did against Iowa State. Establishing that inside presence also includes dominating the glass, something that the Longhorns should be able to do against a poor-rebounding Cowboy team. Even if J’Covan Brown is unable to play or is ineffective thanks to his injury, the Longhorns should be fine if they can play well inside.

2) Control the basketball – In three of the team’s last four games, the Longhorns have coughed it up on more than 22% of their possessions. Oklahoma State has not forced an inordinate number of turnovers this year, but Texas cannot afford to make unforced errors that give the Cowboys extra possessions.

3) Chase Page off the perimeter – Page is averaging 23.7 points over his last three games, including a solid 3-of-5 performance behind the arc against Tech on Wednesday night. The senior guard is always dangerous spotting up outside, so the Longhorns must make him put the ball on the floor. Page is much more effective on the quick catch-and-shoot, and tends to struggle when having to create his own shots.

The old adage holds that the best thing about freshmen is that they eventually become sophomores. Fans of the Longhorns can surely identify with that statement after Texas dropped their conference opener to Iowa State last night in Ames. Texas was without the services of J’Covan Brown down the stretch, leaving the six-man freshman class and Clint Chapman in charge of a comeback bid that fell just short.

Things looked promising for Texas when Iowa State big man Royce White went to the bench with two fouls just minutes into the game. But instead of cratering, the Cyclones built a ten-point halftime lead on the strength of 75% shooting from behind the arc. The Longhorns came out aggressive in the second half, erasing that lead in just minutes, fueled by Brown’s 19 points. Unfortunately, the junior guard injured his ankle as he finished a nice spin move in the lane, and the Cyclones were able to quickly rebuild a lead that they would cling to until the final buzzer.

What looked good

Even with Brown exploding for 19 points in just 25 minutes, the real story of the night was the surprising emergence of fifth-year senior Clint Chapman. The Canby, Oregon native had earned his first start of the season in the team’s previous game against Rice, but immediately found himself in foul trouble and was completely ineffective. Last night’s game provided Chapman a second-straight start, and the Longhorns made an immediate effort to get him the ball.

The big man responded with the best game of his career, putting in 19 points on 7-of-9 shooting, while also locking down the glass on both ends of the floor. His 14 rebounds were a career high, and he led all players in both offensive and defensive boards. Most importantly, Chapman was making the point-blank shots that he — and many of the Longhorns — have struggled with all season. The Longhorns don’t necessarily need Chapman playing this ridiculously well in every game, but his consistent conversion of the easy looks is imperative to the team’s success in Big 12 play.

While Chapman raised the eyebrows in Hilton Coliseum, Brown tied him as leading scorer for the game. This was J’Covan’s most complete, efficient game in quite some time, and it’s not a stretch to say that the team could have pulled out a win if he played the last 12 minutes of the game. He was dicing up the Iowa State defense in the second half, penetrating at will for points inside. When he came out of the game for the last time, Texas trailed just 49-47 and was moving the ball well, notching assists on all three buckets that he didn’t score himself.

On the night, Brown shot 70% from the floor, knocked down all four free throws, and coughed it up just once. After posting 16 turnovers against just nine assists in his last three games, Brown’s lack of miscues against the Cyclones is a huge development.

Longhorn fans can also be reassured by the performance by freshman Sheldon McClellan. His shot was off all night, as evidenced by his 2-of-11 line. He missed all four of his shots from behind the arc, including some where he was completely wide open. Instead of going into a shell and being totally ineffective, he continued to put the ball on the floor and attacked the paint, drawing a ton of fouls on the baseline defenders. McClellan made it to the line 13 times in this game, grinding out a 14-point performance.

Once again, McClellan also avoided any turnovers despite all of his moves to the basket. With another clean sheet, his incredible turnover rate creeps even lower, to just 5.2% on the year. A number that low is typically reserved for your three-point specialists, who rarely attack or try to feed the ball inside.

Texas also did a good job on the defensive glass, ensuring that Iowa State couldn’t extend possessions. The Longhorns held the Cyclones to an offensive rebounding mark of just 22.6%, their worst percentage of the season.

What needed work

Of course, that impressive defensive rebounding performance didn’t mean quite as much when the Horns let the Cyclones knock down 51% of their shots. On top of the poor defense, the few offensive rebounds that Iowa State did manage to grab happened to come at the worst possible moments. Of the seven missed shots that Iowa State reclaimed, two of them were free throws missed as Texas tried to come back down the stretch. With the Longhorn offense already struggling to climb back into it, letting Iowa State have extra chances just made the task even tougher.

While Iowa State made more than 51% of their shots, the real killer was the team’s success from long range. In the first half, the Cyclones made 9-of-12 from outside, and most of the shots were completely unchallenged by the Horns. A simple look at the stat sheet shows how much Iowa State relies on the outside shot, and just how successful they are when they take them. For the Longhorns to continually allow those open looks just speaks to the youth of the team and their inability to remember the scouting report once the bright lights come on.

Texas also struggled to stop Iowa State in transition, giving up numerous dunks and layups on the secondary break. The only thing that gets a crowd more juiced up than a clutch three is a nasty dunk, and the Longhorns let the Hilton Coliseum crowd explode on more than one occasion. The Horns also had two or three possessions in a row where they let White take it coast-to-coast, with no one stopping the ball before White had reached the paint. That kind of lackadaisical defense is going to be absolutely deadly against the kind of athletes Texas will face in the Big 12.

In the half-court, Alexis Wangmene and Jaylen Bond had a particularly tough time defending White. To be fair, we’ve known all season that Wangmene would struggle against bigs who have a good face-up game, so this was a terrible match-up from the start. Bond’s issues, on the other hand, came as a surprise. He further compounded his defensive struggles by wasting his fouls on the offensive end, limiting him to just 11 minutes on the court.

While we mentioned the success Brown and McClellan both had controlling the ball, the same could not be said for the rest of the Horns. Texas coughed it up on 22.6% of its possessions, the fifth time this season that the team has exceeded the 22% mark. Three of those poor showings have come in the team’s last four games, which is a scary trend to start as conference play gets cranked up. The Longhorns have to make their possessions count during these next two months, so they will have to quickly cut down on the errors.

Four of those turnovers came from Myck Kabongo, who once again struggled when Brown was out of the game. When J’Covan fouled out on a technical in New Jersey, Kabongo looked lost and overwhelmed by the moment and extra pressure. Against the Cyclones, he at least tried to break the defense down off the dribble a few times, but that really just meant that he ran full-tilt into ill-conceived drives. On multiple occasions, he simply made a beeline towards the baseline and threw up a wild prayer of a shot against two or three defenders. One of those shots even went off the side of the backboard.

When Myck is on his game, his dribble penetration is just as effective as Brown’s. While he’s not the finisher inside that J’Covan is, Myck has even better floor vision to find passing lanes that his counterpart might not. Unfortunately, finding a way to consistently perform that well has been a challenge for the freshman. Expectations were set very high for Kabongo based on his impressive play at the high school level, but it’s clear that it’s going to take some time for him to adjust to the pressures at this one. Texas’ growth this season will likely follow Kabongo’s own trajectory.

The Longhorns lacking any real penetration threat allowed Iowa State to focus on shutting down Chapman. As a result, in the waning minutes of the game the Texas offense often turned into a stagnant two-man game. The Cyclones could force Chapman well off the block, while Kabongo waited on the perimeter for an entry feed that could only be made much too far from the hoop.

Texas didn’t solely focus on forcing the ball in to Chapman, as there were a few sets where Julien Lewis was able to find some space on cuts without the ball, and Kabongo also worked to get it to McClellan when Chapman was guarded. None of that turned into points, however, and the Horns were only able to manage an and-one putback from Chapman during an especially futile span of more than six minutes down the stretch.

The offense was at least moving somewhat without Brown in this game, which is a vast improvement from how it looked when they were without his services in New Jersey. Unfortunately, “moving somewhat” didn’t equal any points, and it isn’t going to cut it in the Big 12. At this point, it seems that for Texas to succeed without Brown on the floor, there will have to be much more motion off the ball to give Kabongo and the Horns more options.

Up next: vs. Oklahoma State (8-6 overall, 1-0 Big 12); Saturday, 6 P.M. CT