For Michele Bachmann, last night’s Iowa caucus was the end of the road for her 2012 presidential campaign. On the other end of the spectrum, frontrunners Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul didn’t lock up November’s general election, but kept themselves alive by proving contenders to 120,000 farmers in America’s heartland.

That seemingly random intro leads us to this awkward segue, where we make the leap that for the Texas Longhorns, tonight’s conference opener at Iowa State provides a test similar to the Iowa caucus. A game that is seemingly inconsequential on paper — much like the opinions of 120,000 people in a country of 300-million — could prove huge in Texas’ pursuit of an NCAA bid. While a ticket to March Madness pales in comparison to a national party’s ticket to the general election, it’s clear that how Texas performs tonight will set the stage for conference play.

The Longhorns finished non-conference with a solid 10-3 mark, but lack any signature wins to beef up their NCAA résumé. The victory over Temple came when the Owls were lacking two star players, while a road win at UCLA is tarnished by the pathetic season the Bruins are stumbling through. In a very deep and balanced Big 12, the Longhorns will be tested every single night, and have to take the wins wherever they can get them. While the Cyclones are a scary (but inconsistent) team and Hilton Coliseum is not an easy venue to steal a win in, tonight’s game approaches must-win territory when you consider that the Longhorns have to play two games each against Baylor, Kansas, and Missouri.

By the numbers

Iowa State is near the top of the charts when it comes to three-pointers, and that’s clearly by design. Coach Fred Hoiberg typically has four players spread out on the perimeter, and often even moves big man Royce White (No. 30) to the top of the key for ball screens and iso plays. As a result, the Cyclones take nearly 43% of their shots from behind the arc, the 17th-highest percentage in the nation.

Fortunately, Iowa State is very streaky from behind the arc. On the year, they are making 37.8% from long range, which puts them in the Top 60 nationally. But when you break those numbers down, it’s clear that the Cyclones are a perfect example of the “live by the three, die by the three” cliché. In the team’s three losses — to Drake, Northern Iowa, and Michigan — they made just 16-of-64 (25%) from beyond the arc. In their ten wins, they sank 41.3% of their attempts, averaging just under 10 makes per victory.

The Cyclones also earn a fair share of points at the line, with more than 17 per game coming from free throws. Combining all of those freebies with the three-pointers means that just 42.3% of Iowa State’s points come from inside the arc. While that may seem like a large percentage, there are only 11 teams in the country who score less points from two-point range.

As would be expected, the bulk of the team’s free throws come from White getting fouled down low. Beyond that, there are some surprising numbers coming from guard Bubu Palo (No. 1), a former walk-on from Ames who has finally earned a scholarship for the spring semester. Palo draws an average of seven fouls per 40 minutes, and has an improbably high free-throw rate of 192.9%, meaning he shoots almost twice as many free throws as field goals.

Meet the Cyclones

As you could likely guess by this point, as Royce White goes, so go the Cyclones. At 6’8″, 270 pounds, he’s a remarkably big guy who was voted Big 12 Newcomer of the Year despite not playing a competitive game of basketball in over 900 days. White won a state title as a high schooler in Minnesota and elected to play close to home for Tubby Smith and the Golden Gophers. Unfortunately, he never played a single game there, sidelined by a slew of off the court issues — shoplifting at the Mall of America, assault of a mall security guard, and the theft of a laptop from a Minnesota dorm room.

With a fresh start at Iowa State, White has been able to show off his impressive skillset. Despite the big body, he is a deft passer and pretty good ball handler, giving Coach Hoiberg more flexibility on the offensive end. With that unusual blend of talents, White is tops on the team in points (13.1 per game), rebounds (8.9), and assists (3.9). He hardly played in the team’s last game thanks to flu-like symptoms, but should be back to full strength after three days of rest.

With defenses paying so much attention to White, that opens things up on the perimeter for the Cyclone guards. Chris Babb, a 6’5″ transfer from Penn State, is knocking down 36.4% of his long range attempts. He’s primarily a perimeter player, with nearly 80% of his shots coming from beyond the arc. Babb’s length in the backcourt is also a great boost on defense, and provides the Cyclones with an edge on the glass. He also runs the floor really well, which is huge for a team that can sometimes get bogged down in its half-court sets.

While Babb is seemingly glued to the perimeter on the offensive end, the team’s true marksman is senior Scott Christopherson (No. 11), who has made more than 40% of his attempts so far this year. Shockingly, that number actually represents a decline for the senior, who boasts a career three-point mark of 43%. It’s also worth noting that even Christopherson fits with Iowa State’s Transfer U theme, as he played his freshman season at Marquette in his home state of Wisconsin.

The third guard in Iowa State’s starting five is former Michigan State Spartan Chris Allen (No. 4), who is the closest thing the team has to a starting point guard. Although White can bring the ball up the floor and is the top assist man, Allen is generally the one setting the table on offense. Like Babb and Christopherson, the senior is a threat from outside, where he’s made 35.6% of his attempts. Unlike the other two guards, though, Allen can create shots for himself off the dribble, and does a good job attacking the paint on the bounce to get the defense moving.

Rounding out the starting lineup is Canadian product Melvin Ejim (No. 3), who doesn’t typically put up big numbers, but provides a solid rebounding and defensive presence. In the team’s most recent game, the sophomore was thrust into a bigger role thanks to White’s illness. He responded very well, posting an impressive 15-point, 15-rebound line that included a pair of triples.

The Cyclone bench isn’t used for a ton of minutes, but Coach Hoiberg does have instant offense available in the form of Tyrus McGee (No. 25). An All-American at the junior college level, McGee is an exciting player who can create shots without turning it over. Although he averages less than 20 minutes per game, McGee is fourth on the team in scoring with 9.8 points per game and has a turnover rate of just 10%.

The other primary reserve for Iowa State is Palo, who won the state title in Iowa as a point guard. On a team that lacks a quality floor general, that experience translates into playing time, and he sees the floor for 16 minutes per game. As previously mentioned, Palo does a great job attacking with the dribble and drawing fouls. Unfortunately, he’s not as good when it comes to converting those attempts, sinking just 64.8% of his tries at the charity stripe.

Iowa State also has a pair of frontcourt reserves each averaging about 12 minutes per game in Anthony Booker (No. 22) and freshman Percy Gibson (No. 24). Booker is yet another transfer for Coach Hoiberg, coming to Ames from Southern Illinois. He has a serviceable offensive skillset, but typically just produces on the glass and on the defensive end.

Gibson was the top-rated high school prospect out of Detroit and had originally committed to Dayton. But when Flyer coach Brian Gregory departed for Georgia Tech, assistant Cornell Mann made his way to Ames. Having been recruited by Mann, Gibson made the same switch and ended up at Iowa State. He’s yet to truly explode, but you can already see his skills. Gibson is a long, lean 6’9″, which makes him more mobile than a lot of other bigs, and that leads to some easy buckets and boards.

Keys to the game

1) Lock down the perimeter – Although White is the headlining star on this team, the numbers make it clear that Iowa State wins and loses games behind the arc. The Cyclones will certainly make some threes in this game, but if Texas can limit the damage, they will stand a good chance to win this one on the road.

2) Attack on offense – The Cyclone defense has looked porous at times, falling victim to both dribble penetration and off-ball movement. Teams are constantly abusing them with backdoor cuts, while driving guards often find their trip to the rim is rather easy. If J’Covan Brown and Myck Kabongo play aggressively, the Texas offense should be able to pile up some points.

3) Clean the defensive glass – It’s been a recurring theme in this section of the game previews, but it bears repeating. Texas must limit second-chance points by closing out defensive possessions with rebounds. On paper, Iowa State’s perimeter-oriented attack would seem to make this an easier task, but the ‘Clones are actually one of the 100 best offensive rebounding teams in the nation. The Longhorns have to neutralize White and Ejim on the glass to make sure the sharpshooting Cyclones don’t get extra looks.

The Texas Longhorns wrapped up 2011 and their non-conference slate on a high note Saturday afternoon, outlasting a pesky Rice Owl team for a 14-point victory in front of the largest home crowd of the season. The win pushed Texas to a 10-3 mark as they head into Big 12 play, which begins with the Longhorns heading to Iowa State on Wednesday night.

Coach Rick Barnes employed a new lineup against Rice, the first time he had adjusted the starting five all season. Julien Lewis was inactive after slamming his hand in a car door on Thursday, while Jaylen Bond and Clint Chapman earned their first starts of the season thanks to quality play over the last few games. For Chapman, it was his first start since November of 2008.

What looked good

Sheldon McClellan took over Lewis’ slot in the starting lineup, and he responded with a 19-point performance, the fifth time in the last six games he’s cracked the double-digit barrier. Over that stretch, McClellan has averaged 14.8 points per game while shooting an impressive 53.6% from the field.

McClellan’s emergence as the team’s second scoring option is a much-needed development for Texas. The Longhorns will not find success this season if they can only rely on J’Covan Brown, a fact that was underscored by the team’s meltdown when he fouled out against N.C. State in New Jersey.

Sheldon has shown the ability to drain the quick catch-and-shoot coming out of the numerous baseline screens the team runs for him, but also can put the ball on the floor and create pull-up jumpers or easy layups for himself. Combine that with an incredible turnover rate of just 5.9%, and the Longhorns can now feel much more comfortable if Brown isn’t available in crunch time.

While McClellan was stepping up as a new starter, Jonathan Holmes was performing well in his new role of sixth man. The forward played 27 minutes off the bench, but still posted seven rebounds. The most impressive came off of a missed free throw by Bond, where Holmes literally wrestled the ball out of the hands of a Rice player and put in the follow while being fouled.

In addition to the boards he earned credit for, Holmes had quite a few hustle plays that don’t show up in the box score. His active hands on defense disrupted quite a few plays and deflected a few passes, and he kept rebounding opportunities alive by tipping out the loose balls that were just beyond his reach.

Sterling Gibbs also earned some praise for his continued success from long range. The tiny guard nailed all three of the three-pointers that he took, proving that he is going to be a valuable role player for the Horns in conference play. There’s a strong chance that his incredibly flat shot arc will result in some blocked shots when taller players close out on him, but Gibbs has a very quick release that helps to avoid that problem.

What needed work

While Gibbs did a great job shooting the trey, he and the rest of the Longhorns had major issues trying to penetrate the Rice zone. Gibbs picked up two charges in the first half when he attempted to create with the dribble, and he wisely elected to stick to the perimeter after that.

Myck Kabongo and Brown also had difficulties getting inside when Rice lined up in the 2-3. The pair of guards combined for 10 turnovers against the Owls, mostly as a result of forcing things that weren’t there. Brown repeatedly drove the ball into two or three defenders and got himself airborne before realizing there wasn’t a play available. Unfortunately, there weren’t passing outlets available either, and he threw the ball right to waiting Rice defenders.

The positive thing about these problems is that the Longhorns were at least attempting to penetrate the zone. Often, Texas teams faced with a zone defense do little more than pass the ball back and forth around the perimeter rather than take an active approach to breaking down the defense. Gibbs, Brown, and Kabongo had the right idea, but will have to be more aware of how the defense is reacting to avoid getting themselves into bad situations.

It should also be noted that for a few possessions in the second half, the Longhorns were able to do exactly that. Although the final 20 minutes lacked flow thanks to a deluge of whistles, Kabongo and Brown had a few nice plays where they attacked the paint off the bounce and made the right pass before the defense completely collapsed on them.

Up next: at Iowa State (10-3); Wednesday, 8 P.M.

After a nine-day layoff, the Texas Longhorns return to action this afternoon, closing out 2011 against their old Southwest Conference rivals, the Rice Owls. In recent years, the Owls have not proven to be much of a challenge for the Longhorns, dropping all five games against Texas since Rick Barnes has arrived on the 40 Acres.

Ben Braun has the Owls headed in the right direction, though. Last season, the Longhorns won by just three points when they faced Rice at the Erwin Center, while last week the Owls snapped Texas A&M’s 67-game non-conference winning streak at Reed Arena. If the Longhorns were looking for an easy victory to wash the taste of the North Carolina debacle out of their mouths, this match-up certainly doesn’t fit that bill.

By the numbers

Rice is a big team by Conference USA standards, and as a result they make their living in the paint. Nearly 80% of their points come from the free throw line or inside the arc, while the team’s free-throw rate is 14th-highest in Division I. The Owls have an FTR of 48.3%, meaning that they average almost one free throw for every two field goal attempts.

On the other side of the ball, that formidable size equates to solid defense inside and some questionable numbers at the perimeter. The Owls are allowing D-I opponents to make more than 38% of their threes this year, a number that puts them in the bottom 50 nationally. Of course, it should be noted that those stats are skewed slightly by an insane 14-of-29 performance by Iowa State when the teams met in South Padre last month.

On the glass, the size of the Rice roster doesn’t add up to the numbers you might expect. Not surprisingly, their defensive rebounding percentage is 20th in the nation, as the Owls only allow opponents to reclaim 26.6% of their missed shots. On the offensive end, however, Rice is rather mediocre. Despite having Arsalan Kazemi, whose personal OR% of 15.3 is 37th in the country, the team is grabbing just 31.5% of their offensive board opportunities, slotting the Owls a disappointing 211th in the nation.

Meet the Owls

Everything begins and ends with Kazemi (No. 14) for Rice. The Iranian-born big man is averaging a double-double, logging 13.9 points and 12.5 rebounds per game. At 6’7″, he can play the post against most C-USA opponents, but is often undersized against major conference foes. Kazemi has a solid array of post moves, however, and is a highly skilled passer and serviceable ball handler.

Even with all those skills, Kazemi makes his hay at the free throw line. His free-throw rate is 13th-highest in D-I hoops this year, and he finished his sophomore campaign with the second-best mark in the nation. Fortunately, Kazemi is only making about 63% of his free throws this year, so the main concern for the Longhorns is foul trouble. With a thin frontcourt, Texas will have to make sure they can defend Rice’s big man without drawing too many whistles.

The other junior leader for Rice is Tamir Jackson (No. 3), a combo guard from New Jersey who has taken the role of point by default. Averaging 13.7 points and 3.6 assists per game, Jackson is a strong 6’3″ guard who can slash to the rim, draw fouls, and finish through the contact. Like Kazemi, Jackson also struggles at the line, where he has made just 63.5% of his attempts so far.

Joining Jackson in the backcourt is sharpshooter Connor Frizzelle (No. 4), a senior who has struggled in his three previous meetings with Texas. Despite averaging 27.3 minutes in those games, Frizzelle has made just 1-of-9 from behind the arc and averaged just 3.7 points.

This year, he’s third on the team with 8.8 points per game, and is the team’s most reliable shooter on the kickouts from Kazemi. Frizzelle also has a good pull-up jumper, and likes to use it after a strong head fake draws the close-out from opposing defenders.

The team’s other spot-up shooter on the perimeter is Lucas Kuipers (No. 20), also a senior. At 6’8″, the forward from Minnesota is a threat both inside and outside, and is one of the team’s better rebounders outside of Kazemi. On offense, he typically hangs out around the perimeter, spacing the floor for the big man inside. On defense, though, he’s a big part of Rice’s success at limiting opponents to one-shot possessions.

The fifth starting slot has been split between a pair of freshmen, Julian DeBose (No. 15) and Dylan Ennis (No. 31). DeBose is an athletic wingman out of Washington, D.C., but is working his way back from an ankle injury that kept him out of the A&M game. On Wednesday night, he played just seven minutes against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.

Ennis is a 6’2″ Canadian guard who finished his high school career at Lake Forest Academy in Chicago. He’s a natural leader who will likely take over full-time point guard duties in the future, but is still averaging more than 22 minutes as a freshman. He is really struggling from long range, where he’s made just 19% of his attempts this season, so the Longhorns can sag off to limit his ability to drive the lane.

Off the bench, freshman wing Ahmad Ibrahim (No. 0) has had an impressive start to his college career. Originally from Lebanon, Ibrahim has an ability to find the cracks in the defense for flashy drives to the hoop. He has solid handles and great body control, so even when his shot looks impossible to finish, he typically finds a way to sink it.

The international theme continues for the Owls when you look at frontcourt reserve Omar Oraby (No. 34), who hails from Cairo, Egypt. Although he’s playing just a little over seven minutes per game, he has made huge steps forward in his sophomore campaign. At 7’2″, Oraby is still a raw talent, but he has really soft hands to corral rebounds and moves well laterally to help out on defense. And of course, when a 7’2″ guy is standing tall on the block, it seriously limits the interior options for opponents.

In addition to a player from Lebanon, Egypt, Iran, and Canada, the Owls also have German product Jarelle Reischel (No. 12), a freshman wing who finished his high school career in New Jersey. Reischel is averaging less than 12 minutes per game this season, limited mostly by his struggles to hang on to the ball. His individual turnover rate of 34.7% is by far the worst on the team.

The only other player averaging more than 10 minutes per game is 6’7″ freshman Seth Gearhart (No. 41). The Oregon native still needs to add some muscle to be effective in college, but has already shown good ball handling skills and the ability to slash from the wings. He’s also keeping defenders honest with his three-point threat, as he’s knocked down 46% of his long-range looks in his limited minutes.

Keys to the game

1) Earn second-chance points — The Longhorns have become one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country over the last few weeks, but they will be facing a tough test against a Rice team that is one of the best on the defensive glass. The Owls limited A&M to less than 30% of their offensive board opportunities in their upset victory at Reed Arena last week, so the Longhorns will have to do a better job if they want to avoid the same fate as the Aggies.

2) Knock down perimeter looks — Rice will give up their fair share of easy looks from beyond the arc, so the Longhorns will have to take advantage of that opportunity. The Owls were repeatedly confounded by a simple dribble handoff when they lost to Iowa State in South Padre, so Texas should be able to get J’Covan Brown, Julien Lewis, Sterling Gibbs, and Sheldon McClellan some open looks from long range.

3) Take care of the basketball — The Owls don’t force a ton of turnovers, but the same could have been said about North Carolina prior to their thorough whipping of the Longhorns last Wednesday. Texas allowed 21 Tar Heel points off of their 13 turnovers, many of them coming as a result of forcing plays that weren’t there. The Longhorns — particularly Myck Kabongo — need to use a smarter, more patient approach against Rice this afternoon, or else they will be giving away free points to a Rice team that is great in transition.

Coming into Wednesday night’s showdown with North Carolina, it was clear that the Longhorns had a very tough match-up on their hands. The Tar Heels had the size advantage at every position, much more experience, a roster full of future NBA players, and a rowdy home crowd of nearly 22,000 thirsty for revenge.

Even with that deck of cards stacked against the Longhorns, it was tough to see this kind of destruction coming. A seven-minute field goal drought in the first half put Texas in a big hole, and North Carolina just kept shoveling more dirt on top of them. The Tar Heels built a lead as big as 24 points in the second half, toying with the Longhorns all night as they repeatedly added footage to the team highlight reel, cruising to an 82-63 win.

What looked good

In a game as one-sided as this, it can be tough to find the bright spots. Coach Rick Barnes was frustrated from the opening tip, as the Longhorns failed to even run their scripted first play correctly. Regardless, there were still some brief moments of success, giving fans something to take away from the beating.

Although the Longhorns gave up 42 points in the paint, they actually did remarkably good defensive work on Carolina big man Tyler Zeller in post-up situations. Alexis Wangmene and Clint Chapman held him to 2-of-7 shooting in the first half and 3-of-11 overall. When the Longhorns didn’t completely lose Zeller in the half-court, his offense was mostly limited to turnaround jumpers and his trademark hook shot, which simply wasn’t falling last night.

Texas also turned in a good effort on the offensive glass, but had very little to show for it. The Longhorns reclaimed 38.6% of their missed shots, a very good mark against a sizable Carolina squad that has only allowed opponents a 30.5% offensive rebounding percentage this season. Unfortunately, Texas shot just 13-of-31 from the paint, missing far too many easy ones.

Freshman Jaylen Bond was a big reason why the Longhorns were able to succeed on the offensive glass, as he put in his third-straight solid effort off the bench. Bond grabbed 22.7% of his offensive rebounding opportunities, pushing his season mark up to 13.7%, sixth-best in the Big 12, and just outside of the Top 100 nationally. In his last three games, Jaylen has grabbed 29 total boards while averaging just over 20 minutes per game. One can only hope that his relentless work on the glass will translate into even more playing time as conference play begins.

What needed work

While there were a few bright spots, there were far too many problem areas that could be addressed. Rather than try to beat Tolstoy in a word-count battle, we’ll focus on some of the most egregious ones.

As previously mentioned, the Longhorns were incredibly ineffective in the paint, only turning their extended possessions into more missed shots. For all of the good things Chapman had done defensively, his ineptitude from within two feet was infuriating. His final line was 1-of-6 shooting, with all of those misses coming from within spitting distance of the rim.

The Longhorns also did a terrible job protecting the basketball, a stat that is even more troubling considering how infrequently Carolina had turned its opponents over prior to this game. Texas gave it up 13 times, resulting in 17 Tar Heel points, but also had numerous bad bounces go against them. Time after time, Longhorn players bobbled loose balls or batted rebounds out of bounds or to the other team. If the Dean Dome weren’t so loud and bathed in powder blue, it would have felt like being in a Buster Keaton film.

The worst results, however, came on the defensive glass. While the Longhorns did a great job defending Zeller in the post, it seemed like every one of his missed shots resulted in a weak-side rebound and putback. The Tar Heels grabbed 56.4% of their missed shots, a number that is practically unheard of. In fact, the 43.6% of the defensive rebounds that Texas did manage to grab added up to the worst performance for a Longhorn team in at least 12 years. Unfortunately, that’s as far back as the tempo-free stats at KenPom and Stat Sheet go, so there’s no telling just how historically awful that number actually is.

Finally, Longhorn fans might also start worrying about the point guard situation. Myck Kabongo once again had a terrible start to the game, leading Coach Barnes to openly voice his frustrations with the freshman guard in the post-game presser. “We’re going to get guys in here that want to play,” the coach told the media. “I’ve been doing this a long time. I’ve never seen a guy who wouldn’t want to be in this atmosphere.”

Kabongo was dealing with a bad back in this game, and his playing time was limited to an ineffective 15 minutes. There’s no telling how much of that was due to injury and how much was due to Barnes’ frustration. Fans have to hope it was the former, and that the injury can heal quickly. While Myck has started slowly in nearly every game, there’s no question that the Longhorn offense is infinitely better when he’s on the floor and clicking.

With Kabongo on the bench for a majority of the game, Texas handed the reins to freshman guard Sterling Gibbs. While he has proven himself to be mostly serviceable as the backup point, Gibbs still has major issues with any hard traps. Carolina took advantage of this on a few second half possessions, bull-rushing the guard with two lengthy bigs well beyond the perimeter. By the time conference play starts on January 4th, opponents will have picked up on this fact and are sure to put added pressure on Gibbs when he’s running the point.

The big picture

In the grand scheme of things, this doesn’t change much. While the game was tough to watch and the result was more lopsided than some may have expected, only the certifiably insane believed that such a young Texas team had a strong chance to knock off this Carolina team on the road.

The Longhorns will likely enter conference play at 10-3, as only Rice remains on the non-con docket. Twenty wins is often pointed to as a magic number for making the NCAA field, but Texas lacks quality victories in their non-league slate. Last weekend’s win over Temple will hold weight, but outside of that, the Horns can only hang their hat on a road win against a UCLA team that was unraveling at the time.

Texas is going to have to defend its home court once Big 12 play begins, stealing a few wins against the likes of Baylor, Kansas, Missouri, or A&M. The Big 12 is definitely down this year, so anything short of 10-8 in conference play could mean the end of the school’s 13-year NCAA tournament appearance streak.

Up next: vs. Rice (7-4); 1 P.M., Saturday, Dec. 31st

On April 6th, John Henson and Tyler Zeller announced their intentions to return and chase a national championship at North Carolina. It was just the first in a series of announcements by high-profile players, all surefire NBA picks, who were spurning the allure of the League for another year as Big Man on Campus.

Jared Sullinger of Ohio State and Perry Jones III of Baylor also elected to return to school, while Kentucky’s Terrence Jones withdrew his name after testing the waters. And then, just less than two weeks after Henson and Zeller made their joint announcement, Harrison Barnes made the Tar Heels the prohibitive preseason No. 1 when he passed on the NBA and returned to Chapel Hill.

Texas had their own trio of stars mulling their draft fate, but with the wave of big-name players returning elsewhere, Longhorn fans had reason to be optimistic. If Jordan Hamilton, Tristan Thompson, and Cory Joseph made the same three-man pact that Barnes, Zeller, and Henson had made, there was no doubt that tonight’s match-up between the two teams would be a titanic clash of teams in the Top 10.

It was not to be. Instead, the Longhorns enter tonight’s game at Chapel Hill with a young, rebuilding squad. Texas is unranked as they head into the Dean E. Smith Center, a place where the Tar Heels have knocked off the last 71 unranked non-conference opponents they’ve faced. Although the Longhorns have won the last four meetings between these two schools — a streak dating back to 1995 — the odds of that success continuing tonight are very, very slim.

By the numbers

The Tar Heels are an imposing bunch, not just in person, but also on paper. Their offense is seventh-best in the country when measured by adjusted efficiency, putting in 1.155 points each time down the floor. Lest opponents think they can simply get into a shootout with the Tar Heels, it must also be noted that the defense is nearly top-ten caliber, as well. The UNC defense is 11th-best in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing just 0.872 points per possession.

The Tar Heels love to get out and run, playing at an adjusted tempo that is currently third-fastest in the nation. UNC averages 74.5 possessions per game, and the team has played two games this season with more than 85 possessions. The Longhorns have proven that they will engage in a track meet against other up-tempo squads, so the points should come quickly and often in tonight’s contest.

Although North Carolina runs at a high pace, the team takes excellent care of the basketball. The Tar Heels are 14th in the country in turnover percentage, giving it up on just 16.7% of their possessions. In addition to valuing the ball, the Tar Heels also extend possessions with an offensive rebounding mark of 38.8%, a percentage that ranks in the top 30 of D-I hoops.

On defense, North Carolina’s imposing front line makes it incredibly difficult to score. Henson and Zeller block and alter numerous shots from the Tar Heel opponents, but most importantly they do it without fouling. UNC has the best defensive free-throw rate in the nation, allowing less than one free throw for every five opponent field goals.

The only one of Dean Oliver’s Four Factors that the Tar Heels don’t excel in is their defensive turnover percentage. North Carolina is one of the worst 100 teams in D-I hoops when it comes to forcing opponent miscues, a stat that makes their up-tempo success even more impressive. The Tar Heels simply run the floor better than their opponents, and are always looking to immediately move the ball up the court after both makes and misses.

Meet the Tar Heels

A big reason why that North Carolina transition game is so effective is lefty point guard Kendall Marshall (No. 5). When Texas faced the Heels in Greensboro last December, North Carolina still had Larry Drew at the point. Following his sudden departure for UCLA, Coach Roy Williams was forced to up Marshall’s minutes, and the Tar Heels immediately improved, starting a run that would end in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament.

Marshall is averaging more than 10 assists per game and is the catalyst for an offense fueled by future NBA talent. While he often dishes dimes that are eye-popping, he typically just makes the smart, simple pass while putting the ball right in the shooting pocket of his teammates. He also has an incredible ability to make the lengthy pass up-court in transition, a skill that comes in handy with a teammate like Zeller who runs the floor so well.

Marshall also seems to have prescient court vision, making passes that look like hockey one-timers. It is not uncommon to see him make passes where it is clear that he already had a target picked out before he even had the ball passed into his own hands. It’s also worth noting that while Marshall is not much of a threat to shoot jumpers, he will still drive the lane if presented with the opportunity.

Joining Marshall in the backcourt is junior guard Dexter Strickland (No. 1), who has become the team’s lockdown perimeter defender. He is tied for the team lead with 14 steals, but his biggest contribution comes in making an opposing guard’s stat line look ugly. Look for Strickland to be tasked with shutting down J’Covan Brown tonight, who leads the Longhorns with more than 19 points per game.

While Strickland has made a name for himself defensively, he’s still a threat on the offensive end. He is a quality slashing guard who can get to the rim or stop on a dime to knock down a pull-up J. His smart shot selection has given him a team-leading 57.6% field goal mark, and he’s averaging more than eight points per game.

If opponents can manage to get past Strickland, there’s even more defensive talent waiting in the frontcourt. John Henson (No. 31) — a former player at Round Rock High just outside of Austin — averages just over 3.4 blocks per game. His 7’4″ wingspan makes him a threat to block practically every shot that is taken in or near the paint, and as Luke Winn showed in an early-season Power Rankings column, he can quickly cover long distances to do so. He’s also a handful on inbounds plays from the baseline, as his height and wingspan take away any inside scoring plays and essentially force opponents to settle for a long lob to a backpedaling guard.

Henson also worked on his midrange game in the summer, and while he still has some issues with the baseline jumper, there’s no question he has improved. When he’s clicking and knocking down those 15-footers, North Carolina becomes even more dangerous.

Joining Henson inside is 7-footer Tyler Zeller (No. 44), a quality big man who has had his college career dogged by injuries during his first three years. As mentioned above, he runs the floor really well, which leads to a lot of easy buckets when Marshall finds him in transition. Even when those fast break points don’t materialize, the hustle allows Zeller to establish early post position, and his point guard usually finds him for the easy look. Once he gets the ball in the paint, Zeller’s array of post moves make him practically impossible to stop, a fact opposing fans quickly learn when he drills his first jump hook.

Defensively, Zeller’s height is difficult to game plan for. He stands tall and moves well laterally, so opposing players who can’t get position on him prior to the entry pass stand little chance of scoring. Of course, even when he is out of position, the excellent help D from Henson still makes it tough for opponents to score inside. Zeller is also extremely talented at picking up charging fouls, so Brown and Myck Kabongo will have to be careful when they attack the lane tonight.

Even with all that talent we’ve already covered, the Tar Heels still have a bigger star in the starting five. Harrison Barnes (No. 40) is an all-around stud, and he currently leads the team with 16.1 points per game and a 48.5% success rate from behind the arc. If there were a stat to track jumpers from just inside the arc, he’d likely be one of the national leaders in that category, too. Barnes is especially skilled at taking the ball on the perimeter, making one strong dribble towards the hoop, and then drilling a pull-up jumper.

Barnes has always been a quality jump shooter, but he worked on his handles and strength this summer, and is now able to slash to the rim with even more success. For a numerical perspective on that improvement, consider his free-throw rates. As a freshman, Barnes posted an FTR of 24.9%, or roughly one free throw earned for every four field goals attempted. This season, his FTR has climbed to 38.9%, or roughly two free throws for every five field goal attempts. He’s putting the ball on the floor more often this year, and earning more trips to the line as a result.

With a starting five that talented, the Tar Heels really only have to go three deep off the bench. Of course, since we’re talking about North Carolina, those bench players would likely be starters at most other schools.

Reggie Bullock (No. 35) is a three-point marksman who is fourth on the team with 9.2 points per game despite averaging less than 18 minutes. He is very quick on the catch-and-shoot, so the Longhorns can’t afford to lose him for even a moment on defense, especially with a point guard like Marshall who can find him immediately.

Freshman forward James Michael McAdoo (No. 43) is already built like an upperclassman, and he is making an impact off the bench. Averaging just 14 minutes per game, McAdoo still grabs about four rebounds per game and chips in roughly six points.

Fellow freshman P.J. Hairston (No. 15) is a shooting guard in a small forward’s body, checking in at 6’6″ and 220 pounds. He is a threat to shoot from outside, as he proved in the two-game Las Vegas Invitational at the end of November. Against South Carolina and UNLV, Hairston went 8-for-13 from long range and scored 34 total points. He’s now averaging 8.3 per game, but has seen his three-point percentage come back down to Earth, where it now sits at a still-impressive 38.8%.

Senior Justin Watts (No. 24) has also made an appearance in every game this season, but is averaging less than six minutes per game. He’s a high-energy player who provides a few minutes of good defense and work on the glass.

Keys to the game

For a young Longhorn team that has six freshmen on the roster, tonight’s game will be a completely new experience. Although they earned a road win against UCLA, the L.A. Sports Arena was nearly empty and there was little energy in the building. Tonight, the Dean Dome will be packed full with more than 21,000 fans who want nothing more than merciless revenge for the pair of Texas victories over UNC in the last two years. While the Tar Heels have proven to be fallible in losses to UNLV and Kentucky, Texas will have to play a nearly flawless game to escape Chapel Hill with a win tonight.

1) Clean the offensive glass – The Longhorns have steadily improved in this department all season, although one has to wonder how much their stats have been augmented by a weak string of opponents. Texas is ranked 13th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, reclaiming 40.4% of their missed shots.

While the Tar Heels are equally good on the defensive glass, they have had some issues giving up the offensive boards and second-chance points. Michigan State grabbed nearly 46% of their missed shots in the Carrier Classic, while the Kentucky Wildcats reclaimed more than 41% of their misses in Lexington at the beginning of the month. It’s obvious Alexis Wangmene, Clint Chapman, and Jaylen Bond aren’t on the same level as Derrick Nix, Draymond Green, or Anthony Davis, but the Longhorns can really help their chances by extending possessions with offensive boards.

2) Get back on defense – Combine this key to the game with the previous one, and you will quickly see the strategic difficulties inherent in facing this North Carolina squad. If your team crashes the offensive glass, it only serves to help the already-potent Tar Heel transition game. Sell out to stop transition defense by leaving just one or two offensive rebounders, and you’ll likely have a lot of one-shot possessions. While it’s practically impossible for Texas to completely shut down the transition game and still earn any offensive boards, the Longhorns will have to limit the damage on the break and secondary break.

3) Knock down the three-pointers – The Longhorns have been especially cold from long range in recent games, so fans can only hope that it means they are due for a great performance tonight. Texas made just 2-of-17 from long range in Saturday’s win over Temple, and the team has hit only 20.5% of their three-point attempts in the last two games.

North Carolina, meanwhile, has had some difficulties defending the perimeter. In their loss to UNLV, the Runnin’ Rebels were able to knock down 13 three-pointers. UNLV found the most success on the drive-and-kick, but also were able to get open looks when the Tar Heels doubled the ballhandler on perimeter screens and fell victim to a simple throwback to the screener.

Kabongo has really improved over the last few weeks, logging quite a few assists each night courtesy of the drive-and-kick. He’ll likely find many opportunities to do that against UNC tonight, so the Longhorn shooters have to take advantage of those open looks if they hope to pull off a monumental upset.