February 13th has been a day circled on the calendars of Longhorn fans for the last two months. Following the initial announcement of a season-long suspension for sophomore point guard Myck Kabongo, an NCAA reinstatement committee reduced his penalty to 23 games in their ruling on December 21st. That meant that while the Longhorns would have to continue without Kabongo until that magical day of February 13th, if they could remain competitive without him, perhaps that final eight-game run could actually be meaningful.

Since that ruling, the Longhorns have gone 3-9, erasing any hopes for an NCAA at-large bid. Instead, Texas is now just hoping to avoid the first day of the Big 12 tournament, an outcome that also seems incredibly unlikely. With eight games left, the Longhorns are four games behind Iowa State and Baylor, who are tied for fifth place. Unless Kabongo can completely remake this team’s identity in the final four weeks, the Longhorns’ only hope for a 15th-consecutive NCAA bid will be to win four games in four days at the Big 12 tournament.

Kabongo will certainly make a difference for a young team that has shown an ability to compete with the league’s best teams. The question is whether or not his leadership can get the Longhorns to actually close out their big wins, something they have done only once this season. Texas lost large leads in the final three minutes against both UCLA and West Virginia, and coughed up a double-digit second-half lead against Kansas. The Longhorns also failed to convert in the final minute at Baylor, ultimately losing in overtime.

Unfortunately, the team’s problems are much too large for one sophomore to fix on his own. Although freshman point guard Javan Felix has an ugly turnover rate of 26.9%, he is not the only Longhorn unable to control the ball. Seven of the other nine rotation players also have turnover marks north of 20%, with Julien Lewis only missing out on that distinction by one-tenth of a percentage point. Kabongo cannot touch the basketball 100% of the time, and he cannot suddenly make Cameron Ridley, Connor Lammert, and Prince Ibeh have soft hands.

Kabongo also will not magically give the Longhorns enough scoring threats to make the team tough to defend. Lewis is mired in a terrible slump, shooting 28.5% from the field in his last three games. Sheldon McClellan and Rick Barnes are in a battle of wills, making McClellan’s playing time almost as unpredictable as his shooting stroke.

Fortunately, Jonathan Holmes is expected to make his return tonight for Texas. The Longhorns have struggled mightily at defending in the post since he broke his hand in the first half of a loss to Oklahoma. His absence has also caused problems for Texas on the glass, and taken away any real interior threat on the offensive end.

On his own, Kabongo could not solve all of the team’s problems. But if Holmes returns to form at the same time that the team gets its leader back on the court, the Longhorns could suddenly become much more competitive. That could cause problems for Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Baylor, who all make trips to the Erwin Center during the final four weeks of the season. With those four teams currently bunched within 1.5 games of each other in the league standings, it’s clear that the Horns can make quite an impact on the Big 12 race down the stretch.

Meet the Cyclones

For an in-depth look at the Iowa State roster, check out LRT’s game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first match-up

For a complete breakdown of what went wrong and what Texas did right, check out LRT’s post-game wrap from the January 12th contest.

Since then…

The Cyclones have seen mixed results through the first half of the Big 12 season, with nearly all of their wins coming within the friendly confines of Hilton Coliseum. Five of Iowa State’s six league wins have come at home, extending their Hilton win streak to 20 games. On the road, however, the Cyclones are just 1-4, with the lone win coming against cellar-dwelling TCU.

When these two teams first met back in January, Iowa State was ranked in the Top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages. Coach Fred Hoiberg had expressed surprise at his team’s success on the glass, having assumed it would be a weakness for his ballclub.

Since the calendar has turned to league play, though, those concerns have proven to be well-founded. Iowa State’s offensive rebounding mark is just 30.5% in league games, ranking dead last in the Big 12. The drop-off has not been as severe on the other end of the court, where ISU is sixth in the league with a 66.3% mark on the defensive glass.

The Cyclone offense has made up for the missing rebounds by controlling the basketball. For the year, Iowa State has a very respectable 19.4% turnover mark, but the team has managed to cut that down to just 18.3% against Big 12 opponents. As a result, Iowa State has been able to keep its efficient offense humming, leading the league with 1.092 points per possession in conference play.

Even with their clinical offense, Iowa State has still managed to make things interesting for their fans. The team’s home win over West Virginia came after blowing a double-digit lead in the second half, and the victory only came after a last-second Georges Niang layup and a controversial defensive stop on the final play.

Against Oklahoma State, the Cyclones remained hexed by Gallagher-Iba Arena when they gave up the winning bucket to Marcus Smart with only 3.1 seconds to go. Iowa State then wasted what seemed to be their final chance when Chris Babb led Tyrus McGee out of bounds with a bizarre pass on his inbounds from the sideline. But, Babb redeemed himself by establishing position on Oklahoma State’s ensuing inbounds and was shoved in the back by Le’Bryan Nash with 1.7 to go. On the final play, McGee did get off a good look at a game-winning three, but Iowa State ultimately fell short of its first win in Stillwater since 1988.

Despite that frustrating loss and a flat performance in a road defeat to Texas Tech, the Cyclones are still just 1.5 games off the lead in the Big 12. They are also firmly entrenched in NCAA discussions, with every one of the 74 brackets tracked by the Bracket Matrix including the Cyclones at an average seed of 10.

If Iowa State is going to remain in the NCAA field, Will Clyburn will have to bounce back quickly from a rough performance against Kansas State. The senior was just 2-for-9 in Saturday’s loss and posted an ugly offensive rating of 66, well off of his 107.3 rating for the season. Clyburn has a usage rate of nearly 25% in the Iowa State offense, making a brutal performance like Saturday’s even more damaging to the Cyclones. Fortunately for ISU, Clyburn had a career day against the Longhorns in January, scoring 16 points and posting an offensive rating of 137.

While the Cyclones hope that Texas can provide an opportunity for Clyburn to get back on track, the team also is looking to earn some extra road wins as they build their tournament résumé and battle for the Big 12 title. Ken Pomeroy projects the Cyclones as winners in only two of their final four road games — tonight at Texas, and in the season finale at West Virginia. Still, ISU’s win probability is only 61% against the Longhorns and 60% against the Mountaineers, making both outcomes not much better than a toss-up. Losing one or both of those games would be incredibly damaging to Iowa State’s big-picture goals.

Keys to the game

1) Clean up the glass – The Longhorns are the worst defensive rebounding team in the Big 12, allowing opponents to reclaim more than 37% of their missed shots. Fortunately, the Cyclones have had issues of their own when it comes to extending possessions, even though it wasn’t readily apparent in the first game between these two teams. Against the Longhorns, both Clyburn and Percy Gibson snagged four offensive rebounds, and the Cyclones reclaimed more than 36% of their misses. With Iowa State posting an effective field goal mark of nearly 54% in league games and turning it over only 18.3% of the time, the Longhorns have to take advantage of their stops and limit ISU to one-shot possessions.

2) Limit transition buckets – The Iowa State defense doesn’t force many turnovers, and the Longhorns only coughed it up on 17.5% of their possessions in Ames earlier this year. Still, the Texas turnovers were generally unforced and led to 23 Cyclone points. With Kabongo at the helm, the Longhorns have a much better shot at avoiding those kinds of mistakes tonight. If they can manage to do so, the Horns should be able to stay in the game until the final minutes and have a chance at pulling off the upset.

3) Lock down the perimeter – In the last four meetings between these two teams, the results have fallen right in line with Iowa State’s success behind the arc. The Cyclones knocked down 21 of their 47 three-point attempts (44.7%) in their two wins over Texas, while shooting just 25.6% (10-for-29) in the two losses to the Horns.

After Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma State, Texas coach Rick Barnes said that Kabongo and Demarcus Holland would be starting tonight against the Cyclones. That gives the Longhorns two excellent perimeter defenders against an Iowa State team that is outstanding beyond the arc. There’s no word on whether or not Lewis will also be in the starting five, but the sophomore guard will certainly play a key role in locking down the arc, whether it’s as a starter or a reserve.

If the Longhorns can rotate quickly and stick with the Iowa State shooters, it will force Niang and Melvin Ejim to generate points inside. If not, Texas fans will have to deal with another barrage of threes and likely another Iowa State win.

TEAM W L LAST WEEK THIS WEEK Kansas State 8 2 W at Texas Tech, 68-59 W vs. Iowa State, 79-70 Mon at Kansas Sat vs. Baylor Kansas 7 3 L at TCU, 62-55 L at Oklahoma, 72-66 Mon vs. Kansas State Sat vs. Texas Oklahoma State 7 3 W vs. Baylor, 69-67 (OT) W at Texas, 72-59 Wed at Texas Tech Sat vs. Oklahoma Baylor 6 4 L at Oklahoma State, 69-67 (OT) W vs. Texas Tech, 75-48 Wed vs. West Virginia Sat at Kansas State Iowa State 6 4 W vs. Oklahoma, 83-64 L at Kansas State, 79-70 Wed at Texas Sat vs. TCU Oklahoma 6 4 L at Iowa State, 83-64 W vs. Kansas, 72-66 Mon vs. TCU Sat at Oklahoma State West Virginia 5 5 W vs. Texas, 60-58 W at TCU, 63-50 Wed at Baylor Sat vs. Texas Tech Texas 2 8 L at West Virginia, 60-58 L vs. Oklahoma State, 72-59 Wed vs. Iowa State Sat at Kansas Texas Tech 2 8 L vs. Kansas State, 68-59 L at Baylor, 75-48 Wed vs. Oklahoma State Sat at West Virginia TCU 1 9 W vs. Kansas, 62-55 L vs. West Virginia, 63-50 Mon at Oklahoma Sat at Iowa State

The big picture

There are hits and there are misses. And then, there are misses.

Two weeks ago, in this very space, I posited that the loser of the Kansas State/Oklahoma game on February 2nd could essentially be eliminated from the conference race, even though they mathematically would remain alive for weeks. “The Jayhawks are favored to win in every game they have left,” I wrote, crediting the number-crunching skills of Ken Pomeroy. “With odds like that, it’s hard to believe that KU could drop three games down the stretch.”

Here we are, four games later, and I’ve been exposed as having the predictive skills of the Titanic’s engineers. The Jayhawks have lost three straight games for the first time in nearly eight years, and still have hostile road games left against Oklahoma State and Iowa State, plus a trip to face Baylor in Waco. And as for the loser of that Kansas State/Oklahoma game on February 2nd? The Sooners find themselves just a game behind KU and two games off the league lead, with the title race still wide open.

While it’s fun to laugh at how quickly my words were made to look foolish, it’s certainly worth noting just how shocking Kansas’ tailspin is. Not only were the Jayhawks favored by Pomeroy in each of those three games, but the cumulative probability of the team losing all three games was 0.196%. Not 19 percent, but 19 hundredths of a percent. If some Missouri fan had a bit too much to drink in Vegas and put down a few bucks on that moneyline parlay ten days ago, Allen Fieldhouse would probably have been turned into the world’s biggest Braum’s by now.

Even with the Jayhawks reeling, it’s tough to bet against Bill Self. Kansas has won or shared eight consecutive Big 12 titles, and the team still sits just a game out of first with a chance to knock off the league leaders tonight at Allen Fieldhouse. With four weeks to go, there’s certainly more than enough time for Kansas to get back on track and extend that conference-title streak to a ninth season. The road to the Big 12 title could still very well run through Lawrence, but now there are at least some viable contenders hoping to put in a detour.

Weekday games

TCU at Oklahoma; Monday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPNU)
Kansas at Kansas State; Monday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPN)

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech; Wednesday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPNU)
Iowa State at Texas; Wednesday, 7 P.M. CT (Big 12 Network/ESPN3.com)
West Virginia at Baylor; Wednesday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPN2)

The Big 12 conference race has reached the turn, and it is just as competitive as pundits predicted during the offseason. Only one game separates the league’s top four teams, with Oklahoma and Baylor sitting just a game behind that pack.

While the league was supposed to be a battle from spots one through eight, the Longhorns have failed to live up to those expectations. Texas is mired in a tie for eighth place with Texas Tech, a full two games behind West Virginia. The Longhorns have lost three league games in regulation by six points or less and another two in overtime, leaving the team wondering “What if?” as the season starts down the home stretch.

This afternoon, the Longhorns welcome an Oklahoma State team to the Erwin Center that finally has broken through on the road. The Cowboys had won just once in 22 Big 12 road games before pulling off the upset at Allen Fieldhouse last weekend, and now find themselves in the midst of a championship hunt.

Although Texas has knocked off Oklahoma State eight straight years in Austin, that streak is in danger this afternoon. Stat guru Ken Pomeroy gives the Longhorns a 31% chance to win the game, predicting a five-point margin of victory for the Pokes. However, if Texas can manage to pull off the upset at home, it could provide some momentum for the final four weeks of the season, as Myck Kabongo makes his long-awaited return on Wednesday night against Iowa State. That tussle with the Cyclones is the first of four home games Texas will play against the league’s top half down the stretch.

By the numbers

This year’s edition of the Cowboys is the most successful for Travis Ford during his five years in Stillwater, with the team posting great numbers on both sides of the ball. Oklahoma State has a stifling adjusted defensive efficiency that is ranked 10th in the nation, as the team allows opponents to score just 0.864 points per possession. Their offensive numbers are nearly as strong, with the Pokes scoring 1.076 adjusted points per possession, good enough for 55th out of 347 Division I teams.

Their defensive dominance is particularly impressive because they are sound in every area of Dean Oliver’s Four Factors. Oklahoma State’s defensive turnover rate of 22.6% is ranked 58th in the country, while the team also limits opponents to just 29.5% of their offensive rebounding chances. The Pokes also avoid sending their opponents to the line, with a free-throw rate of 31.9%, ranked 89th in the nation. Add in their defensive effective field goal percentage of 44.9%, ranked 43rd nationally, and it’s clear to see why opponents are having such a difficult time finding the net against OSU.

Oklahoma State’s forwards do a great job blocking shots inside, a big reason why the team’s defensive field goal percentage inside the arc is 16th-best in the nation. That’s also a big reason why Cowboy opponents are frequently forced to take shots from the perimeter. OSU opponents take more than 35% of their shots from beyond the arc, a distribution that is one of the 100 highest in D-I hoops. That’s also the only place that Oklahoma State opponents are finding much success, as 34% of those attempts have gone down on the year.

Meet the Cowboys

Freshman point guard Marcus Smart (No. 33) is the face of the program this year for Oklahoma State, and for good reason. Although he’s not a great shooter — only 27.7% from three and 40.2% overall — Smart is a natural leader who puts his teammates in a position to score and manages to make big shots when the pressure is on. As a part of Team USA’s U18 squad, Smart impressed coaches Mark Few and Billy Donovan, who called him the best leader they have worked with.

While Smart averages nearly 4.7 assists per game, he also makes a big difference on the defensive end, where his quick hands pester opposing guards and lead to easy transition points for Oklahoma State. He averages 2.9 steals per game, giving him the nation’s ninth-best steal rate at 5.3%.

The team’s leading scorer is Markel Brown (No. 22), a quick, exciting guard with incredible hops. Brown can put the ball on the floor to create his own shot or get to the rim, and has range to knock down jumpers all over the court. He can explode off the ground in an instant, which makes him good for a highlight-reel dunk or two per game, and that also makes him a very good shot blocker despite being just 6’3″.

Sophomore Le’Bryan Nash (No. 2) was the big freshman name on last year’s squad, but he struggled with the weight of carrying an entire team. This year, he’s not the best and only option for Oklahoma State, and he’s flourishing with a better supporting cast. Although Nash has a good jump shot, he has been too persistent in taking shots from behind the arc, where he’s made only 23.1% of his attempts this season. When he stays near the block to post up or tries to face up other forwards from about 12 to 15 feet, Nash is much more effective.

Senior Philip Jurick (No. 44) is the man in the middle, who is called upon mostly to rebound and score the occasional putback. He’s playing about 20 minutes per game, but still leads the team with more than seven rebounds per game. Jurick ranks in the top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages, and his 6.6% block percentage also ranks 120th for D-I players.

Joining Jurick in the frontcourt is 6’8″ sophomore Michael Cobbins (No. 20), who is actually slightly better at blocking shots. Although Jurick and Cobbins both have swatted 23 shots this year, the sophomore has a block rate of 6.8%. Long and lean, he also has springy hops that make him an excellent defensive rebounder. Cobbins can also knock down hook shots around the paint, and favors the power dribble even though he doesn’t have the big body of a prototypical forward.

Freshman guard Phil Forte (No. 13) has been a lifelong friend and teammate of Smart, and now he’s a key bench contributor for OSU. For Texas fans who remember the historic performance by Keiton Page in last year’s game at Stillwater, Forte could provide some flashbacks. The freshman has an incredibly quick release on the catch and shoot, and has knocked down 36.6% of his threes on the season.

Forward Kamari Murphy (No. 21) is a 6’8″ freshman from Brooklyn who is playing solid minutes off the bench. Built in the same mold as Cobbins, he’s a high-motor guy who works hard on the glass and also has great natural instincts and timing for blocking shots.

Junior Kirby Gardner (No. 1) is a juco transfer from San Bernardino Valley who plays around 11 minutes per game in relief of Smart. He has a great feel for pace, and uses that to his advantage when running the pick and roll with Jurick or the other bigs.

The final member of the rotation is guard Brian Williams (No. 4), who is working his way back from a broken left wrist. After missing the first 18 games of the year due to that injury, Williams appeared against Iowa State and Baylor, logging a total of 14 minutes and six points. Although he is still getting reacquainted with game speed, having Williams back in the mix will be a big boost as the Big 12 race heads down the stretch.

Keys to the game

1) Knock down early threes – Oklahoma State’s defense can be very difficult to crack, as the length on the perimeter makes penetrating difficult, and the solid shot blockers inside add another layer of resistance. The one area where opponents have found success against the Cowboys is on the perimeter, so that means that the Longhorns will need big games from Ioannis Papapetrou (No. 33) and Julien Lewis (No. 14), the only real three-point threats for Texas this afternoon.

In Big 12 play, Papapetrou has made 46.2% of his shots behind the arc, while Lewis has struggled to an ugly 24.4% mark. Lewis has made more than 34% of his attempts on the season, so there is reason to be optimistic that he can break out of his slump sometime soon. If Texas can knock down some threes early, adjustments from the Oklahoma State defense will hopefully open up things a little bit inside the arc.

2) Avoid perimeter turnovers – That aforementioned length gives opposing guards a lot of trouble on the perimeter, while Smart’s quick hands are worth a few easy buckets for Oklahoma State in every game. Texas is still struggling to hang on to the basketball, so this is a very scary match-up for the Horns. If Texas can avoid wasting possessions and giving up fast breaks with dumb perimeter turnovers, they might stay within striking distance of an upset. If not, the Cowboys will likely enjoy their first two-game road winning streak since 2009.

3) Turn back dribble penetration – Oklahoma State is not a team that dumps it in to the standard big man and watches as he does his work. Although Nash has the ability to post up on the blocks, the Cowboys usually employ pick and rolls and dribble penetration to get defenses moving and earn easy looks in the paint. If the Longhorns can keep Smart and Brown from slicing up the defense on the bounce, the Cowboys will have to rely more on perimeter shooting from the likes of Forte. If Texas cannot slow down the OSU guards, the Cowboys could find points very easy to come by.

When the suits at ESPN planned out their Big Monday lineup, Texas’ first visit to Morgantown seemed like a no-brainer. With a batch of transfers becoming eligible, Bob Huggins’ Mountaineers looked to be competitive in the middle of a deep Big 12, while Myck Kabongo and the Longhorns were expected to be fighting for a 15th-consecutive NCAA appearance. Instead, both teams have scuttled through disappointing seasons, and are now only hoping to avoid first-round action in the Big 12 tournament.

Meet the Mountaineers

For an in-depth look at the West Virginia roster, check out LRT’s game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first meeting

The Longhorns could not score a point before the first media timeout when these two teams played in Austin on January 9th, but their stifling defense kept them in the game. West Virginia was limited to just 30.6% shooting from the field, and the Mountaineers missed their first 14 attempts from three-point range. With the Longhorns only sinking 34.5% of their own looks, it was not a pretty game to watch.

Sheldon McClellan (No. 1) struggled against a tight, physical approach from West Virginia, and managed just nine points on 2-of-13 shooting in a reserve role. It was Jonathan Holmes (No. 10) who paced the Horns while battling a big West Virginia frontcourt, scoring 12 points to go with nine rebounds.

That Mountaineer frontcourt was trying to dodge foul trouble all night long, even with Aaric Murray (No. 24) and Deniz Kilicli (No. 13) coming off of the bench for Coach Huggins. Kilicli and Dominique Rutledge (No. 1) both had three fouls just 15 minutes into the game, while Murray had two of his own in the first half. Even with the rotating frontcourt, West Virginia was able to reclaim 40% of their missed shots before the break.

That trouble on the defensive glass would continue for Texas down the stretch and ultimately prove costly. The Longhorns were up by 10 points with 3:41 to play, giving them a win probability of 98.7% at that point, according to Ken Pomeroy. West Virginia suddenly caught fire from long range, hitting three triples and forcing Holmes to drain his own three in the final seconds just to get Texas to overtime.

In the extra period, West Virginia reclaimed 66.7% of their offensive rebounding chances, including three on one trip down the court. After Prince Ibeh (No. 44) made one of two free throws to cut the Mountaineer lead to one point with less than a minute to go, another WVU offensive rebound crushed the Longhorns after they had forced a defensive stop.

The Longhorns had one final chance with 15 seconds to go, down by a basket, but a risky pass from Ioannis Papapetrou (No. 33) was picked off by Murray and iced the 57-53 overtime win for West Virginia.

Since then…

That torrid comeback in Austin was the first of a few valiant efforts by the Mountaineers in Big 12 play, but it was the only one to result in a victory. West Virginia erased an 18-point second-half hole at Iowa State, but lost on a Georges Niang layup in the final seconds. A week ago, the Mountaineers overcame an ice-cold start and a 15-point deficit against Kansas to get within a basket in the second half. Once again, the comeback bid fell short, and West Virginia dropped a 61-56 decision.

The Mountaineers were able to build on that late-game surge when they traveled to Lubbock on Saturday. West Virginia posted its best offensive performance of the season, scoring 1.218 points per possession against the Red Raiders. Normally, strong showings against Tech and TCU are not cause for celebration, but West Virginia was able to jump-start its offense with a barrage of three-pointers. For a team that had made just 29.1% of their threes coming into the game, West Virginia’s 10-of-18 performance behind the arc was downright miraculous.

Guard Eron Harris (No. 10) made three of those triples for the Mountaineers, and led all scorers with 18 points. The Texas game was something of a launching pad for the exciting freshman, who made up for a rough outing against the Longhorns by hitting the go-ahead three in the final minute of regulation. Since that game, he’s averaging 13 points per contest and has made at least a pair of threes against four different opponents.

The Texas game was also the first that Juwan Staten (No. 3) found himself in the doghouse, as the Dayton transfer was benched for all of the second half and overtime against the Longhorns. He did not play in the following game against Kansas State, and has started just twice since then. Even with Coach Huggins using Staten in his own personal game of Starting Five Hokey Pokey, the senior guard seems to be adjusting. In his last two games, Staten has averaged 12.5 points, a nice bump from his previous season average of 9.5 per game.

The Mountaineers briefly experimented with a four-guard look, but have reverted to their traditional lineup. While trying to contain the Cyclones and their floor-spreading attack, Coach Huggins put four guards on the court, and then started just one big in the following game against Purdue. After the Boilermakers whipped West Virginia by a 79-52 count, the project was quickly abandoned.

For the Longhorns, the biggest difference tonight will be the absence of Holmes. The sophomore forward broke a bone in his hand on January 21st, and is expected to miss at least three weeks. He was the key contributor in the first game between these two teams, and was the Longhorn best-equipped to handle the physical nature of West Virginia’s frontcourt.

One player who will be called on to pick up the slack is undersized forward Jaylen Bond (No. 5). He was the lone bright spot in an embarrassing blowout loss at Kansas State last Wednesday, but was essentially a non-factor in the win against TCU on Saturday. Bond’s interior defense has left a lot to be desired, especially when he gambles for steals and gets out of position. Still, the Longhorns will need a solid performance from him and the freshman bigs if they are going to limit the damage done by Murray.

Holmes is not the only player missing tonight’s game due to injury. West Virginia senior swingman Matt Humphrey (No. 21) is also likely to miss his fourth-consecutive game due to a shoulder injury. Although the Mountaineers have adequate depth in the backcourt, Humphrey’s 35.3% mark from behind the arc was one of the best on a poor-shooting three-point team.

Keys to the game

1) Limit second chances – There’s no way to completely keep a Bob Huggins team off of the glass, but the Longhorns must do a better job than they did in crunch time of the first game. On many possessions, West Virginia’s best offense is a putback opportunity, so the Longhorns have to follow up their defensive stops with a rebound. Texas allowed WVU to reclaim 39.5% of its offensive rebounding chances in the first game, so the Horns will have to seriously improve on that number to get a road win tonight.

2) Get McClellan going – Texas was able to survive a poor showing by McClellan in the first game because of the solid night by Holmes. With the big man now wearing a cast on the bench, even more pressure will fall on McClellan to provide points tonight. He has been visibly frustrated by good defenses in the past, and West Virginia’s rough, suffocating approach could easily get in his head tonight. If McClellan can get a few hoops early, it will help him to avoid forcing things out of frustration and will make things easier for the entire team.

3) Hang on to the ball – The Longhorns coughed it up on more than 20% of their possessions against West Virginia the first time around, which was actually an improvement on their season average. Still, Texas turned it over twice in the final three minutes and another two times in overtime. The Longhorns have had difficulty closing out games all season, and ill-timed turnovers are a big reason why. Texas will have to deal with West Virginia’s physical nature and hang on to the basketball if they want to steal a road win in Morgantown.

4) Make free throws – West Virginia is in the bottom third of D-I hoops when it comes to sending opponents to the stripe, and Texas failed to take advantage of that in the first meeting. The Longhorns made only 44% of their free throws in the loss to West Virginia, sinking just 11 of 25. If Texas leaves that many free points on the table tonight, it’s hard to envision a positive final result on the scoreboard.

On Wednesday, the Texas Longhorns suffered their worst loss in more than seven years, as they were blown out by 26 points at Bramlage Coliseum. Texas posted its second-worst defensive performance of the year, allowing Kansas State to score 1.268 points per possession, well above the team’s season average of 0.885 points allowed. It was a demoralizing loss in every facet of the game, as the Wildcats out-hustled Texas to loose balls, forced turnovers, and scored at will for the entire 40 minutes.

Fortunately, the Longhorns should be able to quickly put that loss behind them. TCU comes to town tonight for the first meeting in five years between these former Southwest Conference rivals, currently riding a seven-game losing streak. The Horned Frogs and first-year coach Trent Johnson have suffered through terrible luck in the injury department and are still looking for their first conference win in the Big 12. Texas could not ask for a better opponent to face when in dire need of a bounce-back performance.

By the numbers

Folks who have complained about their inability to watch the Longhorn Network might be thankful for the lack of carriage tonight. Both TCU and Texas struggle to score, while both teams also have strong defenses. Add in the fact that the Horned Frogs play at the 15th-slowest pace in all of Division I hoops, and the points could be few and far between in this one.

TCU’s adjusted offensive efficiency is ranked an abysmal 329th out of 347 teams in D-I. The Horned Frogs score an adjusted 0.867 points per possession, with that number dipping even further in conference play. Against Big 12 opponents, the Frogs have managed just 0.804 points per possession, and they have posted a league-worst 38.6% effective field goal percentage.

Making those scoring problems even worse are TCU’s struggles to hold on to the ball and to convert their freebies. The Frogs have coughed it up on 22.5% of their possessions and have made only 60.2% of their free throws. That percentage at the line is 10th-worst in Division I, which should help a foul-prone Texas defense tonight. The Longhorns send their opponents to the line more than any other team in Big 12 play, so they have to hope that TCU continues leaving points at the charity stripe.

Defensively, the Horned Frogs have performed admirably, although their numbers are helped out quite a bit by a very weak non-conference schedule. TCU faced only one team ranked in the Top 100 by Ken Pomeroy, and played only one other that ranked in the Top 150. Since shifting to league competition, the Horned Frogs have allowed 1.057 points per possession, ninth-best in the conference.

The tempo-free areas where TCU has excelled defensively are turnover percentage and free-throw rate. The Frogs have forced Big 12 opponents to turn it over on 22.6% of their possessions, the best rate in the league. Their FTR is second-best in the Big 12, as they give up roughly one free throw for every four field-goal attempts.

Meet the Horned Frogs

The Horned Frogs seemed to be heading in the right direction at the end of Jim Christian’s tenure, pulling off big home upsets over UNLV and New Mexico last year. Although they lost three key players from last year’s team, a lot of promising young talent and a solid recruiting class gave TCU fans a reason to be excited heading into their first Big 12 season. But, thanks to a rash of injuries, Coach Johnson has been forced to shift his rotation all season long, and he’s rolled out nine different starting lineups this year.

Big man Aaron Durley (No. 44), who had originally committed to Marquette, was lost for the year after suffering a knee injury in pre-season workouts. Expectations were also high for Amric Fields (No. 4), who was the Sixth Man of the Year in the Mountain West last season. Unfortunately, he also suffered a knee injury just minutes into the third game of the season. As if those setbacks weren’t enough, the Horned Frogs also lost Jarvis Ray (No. 1) for six to eight weeks after he injured his foot in a non-con win over Southern.

With so many key contributors lost, even more pressure has fallen on the shoulders of sophomore point guard Kyan Anderson (No. 5). Tabbed Freshman of the Year in the Mountain West last season, Anderson has started all 20 games for the Horned Frogs this year and has an impressive assist rate of 26.9%. He is the team’s only consistent three-point shooter, as he sinks 35.9% of his looks and averages nearly four attempts per game.

Anderson’s 11.6 points per game are tops on the team, and his 3.1% steal rate ranks just outside the Top 300 nationally. Most impressively, Anderson logs those steals without drawing whistles, as he has been called for just 1.7 fouls per 40 minutes.

The only other Frog to start in every game is senior forward Garlon Green (No. 33). He has shown some nice post moves on the block, but also has a solid mid-range game and accuracy beyond the three-point line. Although he averages just under two attempts from long range per game, Green has connected on 38.9% of those shots.

One area of Green’s game that is frustrating is his work on the offensive glass. In the loss to Iowa State, his ability to extend possessions with offensive rebounds and get easy second-chance points were a key to TCU staying competitive with the Cyclones. But on the season, Green’s offensive rebounding percentage is a paltry 3.9%. If the 6’7″ senior would fight more consistently for boards on that end of the court, the Horned Frogs could be much more competitive in the Big 12.

One man who is rebounding consistently is fellow senior Adrick McKinney (No. 24). A hometown kid who played at Trimble Tech High, McKinney is ranked just outside of the Top 100 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. McKinney snags 12.6% of his opportunities on the offensive end, while reclaiming 22% of opponents’ misses on the other end.

McKinney is a handful inside, but most opponents have made him work for his points. The senior makes just 53.4% of his free throws, which is why defenses have no problem fouling him when he gets the ball in good position down low. McKinney’s free-throw rate of 71.5% — meaning he takes roughly seven free throws for every ten field goal tries — underscores that problem.

For a Texas team that has struggled defending the post since Jonathan Holmes’ injury, this is a welcome development. As long as the Horns make their post fouls count and don’t allow and-one opportunities, they can limit McKinney’s effectiveness by sending him to the stripe.

The other big man for TCU is sophomore Devonta Abron (No. 23), who hails from Seagoville outside of Dallas. A transfer from Arkansas, he was given a waiver and allowed to play immediately due to an ill family member. Like McKinney, Abron struggles at the line, and opponents send him there often. His free-throw rate is an even 70%, while he actually makes just 52.4% of his attempts from the stripe.

At 6’8″ and 255 pounds, Abron is a presence in the lane. His 4.6% block percentage is tops on the team and averages out to roughly one block per game. He’s ranked in the Top 250 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages and has increased his playing time to more than 24 minutes per game in Big 12 contests. Abron still has great strides to make offensively, but he’s certainly developed quite a bit in his short time with TCU.

Freshman guard Charles Hill, Jr. (No. 0) is currently the flavor of the month for that fifth starting spot, having surged onto the scene in conference play. After averaging just 2.2 minutes per game in non-conference games, Hill has started five of seven Big 12 games and is averaging more than 26 minutes against Big 12 foes.

The freshman is an aggressive guard with great slashing skills, and that driving ability really opens things up for an offense that can become very stagnant at times. Unfortunately, he has struggled to actually put the ball in the basket, sinking less than 30% of his shots on the year. Until he proves that he can hit a midrange jumper or consistently knock down the triple, defenses can sag off of him and take away that driving threat.

Senior guard Nate Butler Lind (No. 21) has also started five games in Big 12 play, but has logged eleven starts on the year. He also brings dribble penetration to the table, but has been marginally more consistent than Hill when it comes to knocking down the midrange jumper. Like Hill, he also has not made enough threes to warrant tight defense, so that hampers his ability to put it on the floor and get to the paint.

The final player of TCU’s core rotation is 6’7″ forward Connell Crossland (No. 2). A juco transfer from Logan College, he has been a solid rebounder off the bench and is averaging 21 minutes per game. He nearly logged a double-double in the team’s Big 12 debut, snagging nine boards to go with eight points. Crossland has continued to impress in conference play, ranking second on the team with five boards per game. He’s also turned it up on the offensive end, averaging 11.5 points in the team’s last two games against Baylor and West Viginia.

Keys to the game

1) Take advantage on the glass – Texas has struggled all season to secure defensive rebounds, and that problem has only become worse with the absence of Holmes. Texas Tech reclaimed 48.6% of their missed shots, while the Wildcats grabbed 40% of their misses on Wednesday night. TCU is a very average rebounding team that has a tough time making shots. If Texas can actually take advantage of that weakness on the glass and hold the Frogs to mostly one-shot possessions, the Longhorns should have no trouble tonight.

2) Take care of the ball – One area where the Frogs do find success is in forcing mistakes on the defensive end. Ball control has been a recurring problem for Texas, and those problems resurfaced in that ugly loss to K-State. The Longhorns ended 27.5% of their possessions with a turnover, and simply cannot afford to do the same against TCU tonight. The Horned Frogs are going to try to make this a low-possession game, so each and every mistake will be magnified.

3) Speed up the Frogs – One way to avoid a low-possession game with highly-leveraged possessions is to force TCU to speed things up. The Frogs were able to hang with Iowa State for about 15 minutes when they matched the up-tempo approach of the Cyclones, but ultimately made too many mistakes and couldn’t play good transition defense.

Meanwhile, Texas showed that it was willing to throw out some pressure against Texas Tech last Saturday in an effort to speed up the Red Raiders. The Horns would be wise to try that same approach with the Frogs at random times tonight, not only making TCU uncomfortable on offense, but also hopefully contributing to some easy fast break points for Texas.