The last time the Texas Longhorns started conference play with an 0-4 mark, the team missed the NCAA tournament and Coach Tom Penders lost his job. It has been more than 14 years since that disastrous season, and the Longhorns have appeared in every NCAA tournament since then under Coach Rick Barnes. With this year’s squad sitting at 0-3 in the Big 12 and an incredibly talented Kansas team coming to the Erwin Center this afternoon, the chances are good that the Horns will be matching that disappointing start.

Although the Longhorns suffered a pair of their conference losses in overtime, they have yet to face a team as skilled as Kansas. The Jayhaws have won 14 straight games after losing to Michigan State in the Champions Classic, with their 12 non-conference wins coming by an average of more than 20 points.

While the number alone is impressive, considering the strength of KU’s non-conference schedule only makes it more extraordinary. Although the non-con slate included the likes of Southeast Missouri State, American, and Chattanooga, Kansas also knocked off good mid-majors in Belmont and Richmond, blew out Colorado, and defeated Ohio State on the road.

By the numbers

As is to be expected with a Bill Self team, the Jayhawks are stout on both ends of the court. Their adjusted offensive efficiency is ranked 17th in the country by Ken Pomeroy, as the Jayhawks score 1.136 points per possession against the average defense. They are also fourth-best when it comes to stopping opponents, allowing an adjusted 0.838 points per possession.

There has been a slight drop-off for the Jayhawks on the offensive end in conference play, with the team scoring 1.047 points per possession. Their stifling defense has more than made up for slight dip in production, as the Jayhawks are limiting Big 12 foes to 0.85 points per possession, and held Baylor to 23.2% shooting from the field on Monday night.

Kansas’ interior defense is the toughest in the nation, as opponents make just 36% of their shots inside the arc. The team also has the second-best block rate in the country, swatting nearly 22% of the two-point attempts taken by their opponents. The dominant Big Monday win over Baylor drilled this point home, as the very tall Baylor lineup shot just 21.4% inside the arc and struggled to score the entire night.

Offensively, the Jayhawks have gradually become one of the nation’s best three-point shooting teams despite a slow start behind the arc. Kansas has made 36.8% of its threes this season, ranking the team 50th out of 347 in Division I. In the Jayhawks’ first six games, they hit just 29.6% of their three-pointers, even with an impressive 7-for-13 performance behind the arc against Saint Louis. Although the team has seen its average dip once again in conference play, its scorching-hot 47.8% mark in December has shown just how quickly Kansas can light it up from outside.

Meet the Jayhawks

The team’s leading scorer is freshman Ben McLemore (No. 23), who is far more experienced than most first-year players. He was deemed a partial qualifier last season and had to get his grades in order before he could even practice with the team. Naturally, Kansas used McLemore’s redshirt and kept him out of game action in the spring semester. That gave him a chance to practice with and against last year’s Final Four team, easing his adjustment to the college game.

McLemore is a smooth scorer with an excellent jump shot that has been compared to that of Ray Allen. He elevates well above the defense and has perfect form, even when coming off a curl or taking a quick shot after the kickout. Although McLemore’s handles are not good enough to put him in a facilitating role, he can still drive from the perimeter and get to the rim. He has also shown some incredible athleticism on highlight reel dunks this season, so the Horns will have to put a body on him in offensive rebounding situations, unless they want to show up in a supporting role on Sportscenter.

The other player getting all of the press this year is senior Jeff Withey (No. 5), who is definitely worthy of all the attention. At 7-feet, he is the nation’s second-best shot blocker, swatting more than 17% of his opportunities. What makes him such an excellent defender, though, is that he does it all without fouling. Withey stays vertical and jumps straight to the ceiling, seriously altering any shots that he cannot block. His sound defensive fundamentals mean that he has been whistled for only 20 fouls in 16 games.

The other thing that Withey does remarkably well on the defensive end is keep his blocked shots in play. The Jayhawks are not a team that force an excessive number of turnovers, but they still have a very efficient transition game. A large part of that success is due to Withey’s ability to block shots inbounds, in addition to his willingness to immediately look up after securing defensive boards.

On the offensive end, Withey is a great passer in the post, allowing Self to use him in the high-low game. It also leads to easy buckets when Withey passes from block to block when opposing bigs help across the lane. The Jayhawks also love to use their big man in the pick and roll, setting him up for elementary finishes at the rim when defenders key on the Jayhawk drivers.

One of those drivers is Elijah Johnson (No. 15), who is the team’s point guard in title. Coach Self has pointed out that his team’s offense doesn’t have a true point after the first pass is made in the half court set, and Johnson’s game bears that out. EJ is a skilled slasher with slippery moves, but is also a great catch-and-shoot guy who will can it from outside on the drive-and-kick or quick ball reversals. He has also shown an affinity for the skip pass, frequently using it to set up McLemore in the far corner for threes.

The other guard in the starting five is senior Travis Releford (No. 24). Although he has been known throughout his career as a lockdown perimeter defender, Releford has upped his offensive game this season. He has hit more than 62% of his shots this year, and his true shooting percentage of 73.9% is best in the nation. Releford has made almost 42% of his threes, developed a midrange game, and consistently gets out and runs the floor well in transition to earn easy hoops.

At the four spot is Kevin Young (No. 40), the fourth senior in the team’s starting five. At 6’8″ and just 190 pounds, Young lacks the size of most four-men, but still manages to scrap on the glass. He is ranked in the top 100 for both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages, with his 14% mark on the offensive glass slotting him 54th in the nation.

Young’s other major impact is as a great interior passer. He has a nice, soft touch on his passes from the high post and knows where and when to hit Withey with the feed. Opponents such as Texas Tech have tried to force Young to beat them as they double down on Withey, with varying degrees of success. He doesn’t possess a consistent midrange shot, but will put the ball on the floor to drive from the free-throw line when opponents play off of him.

The one area of weakness for this Kansas team is its depth. The starting five account for 74.1% of the team’s minutes, a stat that is skewed by the blowouts in non-con play. In the team’s five games that were decided by ten points or less, the bench accounted for just 19.7% of Kansas’ minutes.

The reserve who has earned the most minutes this year is sophomore Naadir Tharpe (No. 1), who has logged about 18 minutes per game backing up Johnson at the point. Only 5’11”, Tharpe is very quick with the ball and pressures opponents well on the perimeter. His shot has been streaky this season, but it appears he is hitting his stride after a slow start. Tharpe made just six of his first 21 from behind the arc, but has upped his three-point percentage to 37.2% coming into this game.

Highly-touted recruit Perry Ellis (No. 34) has also seen action in every game, logging more than 14 minutes each night. At times, it has looked like Ellis lacks confidence, playing tentatively despite his natural skills. Like Withey, he knows how to hold his ground and play vertically on defense, and he works hard on the glass. With time, he should iron out the wrinkles in his offensive game and play with confidence on that end of the floor.

Like McLemore, Jamari Traylor (No. 31) was deemed a partial qualifier last season and used his redshirt. He is a high-motor guy who has thrown down some ferocious follow dunks in transition, and he is constantly working on the glass. Although he sees the court for just under 12 minutes per game, he looks like one of those prototypical Self players who has a small role as a freshman and then explodes as a sophomore or junior.

The Jayhawks also give minutes to freshmen Andrew White III (No. 3) and Rio Adams (No. 2), but usually when the game is out of reach. White is a 6’6″ swingman with a deadly three-point shot, while Adams is an exciting, athletic 6’3″ guard who often plays out of control. If Texas fans see either of these players for extended minutes this afternoon, it means that things have turned very ugly for the Longhorns.

Keys to the game

1) Handle the perimeter pressure – The Jayhawks do not force their opponents into many mistakes, but they do make it a point to force opposing guards out of their comfort zone. Kansas’ defensive turnover percentage of 19.3% is actually ranked 233rd in D-I, but they will pressure the ball well past the perimeter and hedge hard on ball screens.

The Texas offense has struggled throughout the season, but has had an especially difficult time when Javan Felix is unable to get free on high ball screens. The Longhorns also have made their most frustrating turnovers when passing it around the perimeter. Texas cannot afford to give up easy hoops with dumb turnovers behind the arc, and the team has to be able to find some offensive flow despite Kansas’ perimeter pressure.

2) Avoid taking challenged shots – The Longhorns will have a very tough time scoring at the rim in today’s game, as Withey’s presence typically cleans up any dribble penetration that opponents can muster. If Texas is going to score inside, it will have to come off of smart passing as Kansas rotates. If they cannot manage to do that, the Horns must avoid wasting possessions by forcing up bad looks against strong interior defense.

Although teams can score inside against KU with crisp passing and a little bit of basketball IQ, the most likely scenario is that Texas will have to knock down their jumpers to pull off a huge upset this afternoon. For a team that has an effective field goal mark of just 30.2%, that will be a very tall order.

3) Limit second chance points – Texas has been giving up offensive rebounds at the worst times this season, allowing both UCLA and West Virginia to win key boards in the final minutes. The Bruins and Mountaineers both took advantage of those extra opportunities to mount furious late-game comebacks and snatch victory away from Texas.

Although Kansas is ranked just above the national average when it comes to offensive rebounding, the Longhorns have to crash the defensive glass on every single possession. The Kansas offense is an efficient machine, and Texas cannot afford to waste their defensive stops by giving the Jayhawks extra chances to score.

TEAM W L LAST WEEK NEXT WEEK Baylor 3 0 W at Texas Tech, 82-48 W vs. TCU, 51-40 Mon at Kansas Sat vs. Hardin Simmons Kansas 2 0 W vs. Iowa State, 97-89 (OT) W at Texas Tech, 60-46 Mon vs. Baylor Sat at Texas Kansas State 2 0 W at West Virginia, 65-64 Wed at TCU Sat vs. Oklahoma Oklahoma 2 0 W vs. Oklahoma State, 77-68 Wed vs. Texas Tech Sat at Kansas State Iowa State 1 1 L at Kansas, 97-89 (OT) W vs. Texas, 82-62 Wed vs. West Virginia Sat at TCU Oklahoma State 1 2 W vs. TCU, 63-45 L at Oklahoma, 77-68 Sat vs. Texas Tech Texas Tech 1 2 L vs. Baylor, 82-48 L vs. Kansas, 60-46 Wed at Oklahoma Sat at Oklahoma State West Virginia 1 2 W at Texas, 57-53 (OT) L vs. Kansas State, 65-64 Wed at Iowa State Sat at Purdue TCU 0 3 L at Oklahoma State, 63-45 L at Baylor, 51-40 Wed vs. Kansas State Sat vs. Iowa State Texas 0 3 L vs. West Virginia, 57-53 (OT) L at Iowa State, 82-62 Sat vs. Kansas

The big picture

Baylor and Kansas both got out to slow starts against league doormats TCU and Texas Tech on Saturday afternoon, with the Bears trailing the Horned Frogs by one at the break and the Jayhawks holding just a two-point lead heading to the locker room in Lubbock. Both teams woke up in the second twenty minutes, however, and cruised to victories in advance of their showdown tonight. As expected, both teams are undefeated as Allen Fieldhouse hosts the first Big Monday match-up of the Big 12 season. Most league observers figured that only Baylor had a shot to compete with the Jayhawks at the top of the standings, and this long-awaited battle is the first opportunity to see if the Bears can provide much of a threat.

Kansas State and Oklahoma also remained undefeated on Saturday, picking up their second league wins against West Virginia and Oklahoma State. The Wildcats won by the narrowest of margins, thanks to late-game heroics by Shane Southwell and poor free-throw shooting by the Mountaineers. The Sooners had four different starters score in double figures as they won the first round of the Bedlam series. Foul trouble limited Marcus Smart to just 27 minutes for the Cowboys, who are now 1-20 in their last 21 conference road games.

In Ames, Iowa State bounced back quickly from a stunning overtime loss to Kansas by pulling away in the second half for an easy 20-point win over Texas. The Cyclones knocked down more than 42% of their three-point attempts and held Texas to just four points in the last 7:20 of the game. Iowa State now gets to give West Virginia its first taste of Hilton Magic before traveling to Fort Worth and Lubbock for very winnable road games. If the Cyclones can take care of business against the Mountaineers, the team picked eighth in the Big 12 preseason poll should easily be 4-1 heading into a home date with Kansas State on January 26th.

Mid-week games

Baylor at Kansas; Monday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPN)

The Kansas Jayhawks have won 100 out of their last 101 games at Allen Fieldhouse, with the lone loss coming to Texas in January of 2011. Before that, the Texas A&M Aggies were the last visiting team to escape the Phog with a victory, all the way back in February of 2007. While history holds that Baylor doesn’t stand much of a chance to win at Kansas tonight, they at least have geography on their side, as the state of Texas is the only one that has found even a modicum of success in Lawrence over the last half-decade.

The Bears also have Isaiah Austin on their side, a 7-foot, 1-inch freshman who is going to make tonight’s match-up very interesting. Iowa State managed to limit the effectiveness of defensive stopper Jeff Withey on Wednesday by using Georges Niang to stretch the floor and draw KU’s big man out of the paint. On Saturday, Texas Tech tried to neutralize Withey on the offensive end, doubling him and forcing Kevin Young to step up. It took a half of basketball, but Young found his stride and poured in 14 to lead all scorers and propel Kansas to their 13th-consecutive win.

Austin provides an interesting match-up, because he brings the floor stretching ability of Niang and the driving ability of a small forward. Taking Withey out of the lane makes it harder for the KU guards to apply their usual ball pressure, perhaps opening things up for Pierre Jackson and Brady Heslip. Defensively, Austin can battle Withey one-on-one and allow Cory Jefferson to handle Young and the frontcourt reserves.

With the home crowd behind them and Bill Self making adjustments from the bench, it’s hard to pick against the Jayhawks. But, if anybody in the Big 12 has a good shot to end Kansas’ home dominance this season, it’s these Baylor Bears.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma; Wednesday, 7 P.M. CT (Big 12 Network/ESPN Full Court)

Oklahoma earned an impressive victory at home over in-state rival Oklahoma State on Saturday, keeping the Sooners just a half game behind Baylor in the standings. Wednesday’s game against Texas Tech shouldn’t provide too much of a threat for OU, which could set up another battle of undefeateds on Saturday, when the Sooners travel to Bramlage Coliseum to take on K-State. Romery Osby has led the way in Oklahoma’s first two conference games, averaging 19 points and six rebounds.

Kansas State at TCU; Wednesday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPNU)

Stats guru Ken Pomeroy gives TCU a 17.8% chance of going winless through league play, and it’s unlikely they will avoid that distinction by snagging a win over K-State on Wednesday night. Per Pomeroy, the Horned Frogs have a 12% chance to knock off the Wildcats, who are really clicking under first-year head coach Bruce Weber. With the Wildcats limiting opponents to an adjusted 0.889 points per possession and TCU scoring only 0.869 each time down the court, the final score could resemble those of the peach-basket era.

In an early-season loss to Northwestern, TCU scored just 31 points, with only 14 of them coming in the first half. If you’re into torture movies like Saw and Hostel or enjoy painfully-awkward Ricky Gervais sitcoms, watching this game could be the perfect way to spend your Wednesday night.

West Virginia at Iowa State; Wednesday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPN2)

The battle of wills continues between point guard Juwan Staten and coach Bob Huggins in Morgantown. Staten did not play in the second half or overtime of WVU’s win at Texas, and after the game, Huggins told reporters, “It’s my team. It’s not his. We talk about being on the same page…well, I wrote the book.”

On Twitter, Staten appeared to have received the message loud and clear. “Moral of the story: Listen to the man that makes the decisions. I understand and I’m smart enough to make the adjustment.” Staten’s adjustment must not have been enough for the head coach, however, as the Dayton transfer did not play against Kansas State on Saturday. Coach Huggins has confirmed that the point guard will travel to Ames, but has not decided if he will play on Wednesday night.

That power struggle will only make it more difficult for the Mountaineers to pull off a big road win. The Cyclones have looked like one of the league’s best teams in its first two conference games, and they have won 22 out of their last 23 at Hilton Coliseum. The Mountaineers finally appeared to be playing the Huggins brand of basketball on Saturday, but it’s still tough to imagine they can steal a win against a highly-efficient Cyclone squad.

The Texas Longhorns entered Saturday’s game with the Iowa State Cyclones boasting the nation’s fifth-most efficient defense. On the perimeter, the Texas D was the stingiest in the country, holding opponents to 23.2% shooting behind the arc.

With the stifling Longhorn defense facing an efficient, sharpshooting Iowa State team, something had to give. Unfortunately for the burnt-orange faithful, it was the Cyclones who imposed their will on Saturday afternoon, as Iowa State cruised to an 82-62 win in front of 14,376 at Hilton Coliseum.

The Cyclones posted an incredible 1.302 points per possession in the win, powered by an impressive 42.3% mark from behind the arc. Iowa State kept Texas safely out of reach for most of the game, holding a lead that often hovered around the double-digit mark. The Longhorns repeatedly chipped away at the lead in the second half, but could never get closer than five points. Iowa State ended the game on a 17-4 run over the last seven-plus minutes, sending the Longhorns to their first 0-3 start in conference play since the Tom Penders era.

What looked good

Jonathan Holmes had another solid performance for Texas, emerging as a team leader as fellow sophomore Sheldon McClellan continues to cool his heels in Rick Barnes‘ doghouse. With McClellan on the floor for a grand total of 59 seconds against Iowa State, Holmes led the team with 15 points.

Texas fed Holmes immediately, as he scored the team’s first hoop on a drive from the baseline. He also added a nice finish a few minutes later on a quick spin move from the block. In the second half, Jonathan drove strong to his left and used a jump stop to get to the rim, finishing as the crowd howled for a travel.

Holmes added a triple on a good shot in rhythm, further underscoring the fact that he could develop into a legitimate stretch four. When the sophomore shows any hesitation before his three-point attempts, he tends to miss in an ugly fashion. As he develops more confidence and takes the open long-range looks without thinking about them, that part of his game should improve and force defenders to follow him to the perimeter.

Freshman Demarcus Holland saw his minutes increase with McClellan riding the bench, and he turned in a generally positive performance. Although Iowa State’s Tyrus McGee poured in 15 from the bench, Holland was the Longhorn defender who had the most success limiting McGee’s damage in halfcourt sets. The freshman guard also showed off his quick hands, poking a few balls free from the Cyclone guards. While none of those plays resulted in steals, that defensive pressure will certainly frustrate Big 12 opponents.

On the offensive end, Demarcus easily had his best game of the season. Although he only scored six points in 25 minutes, Holland showed off a nice driving ability on one slashing layup from the left wing, and he used his dribble penetration to set up teammates on four assists. Texas repeatedly worked to free Holland up with screens off the ball, running him through two and three different picks on some sets.

The Longhorns desperately need another shooter to compliment Julien Lewis, and if McClellan is not going to be able to shoulder that load, the possible emergence of Holland is a much-needed development. He was responsible for a pair of turnovers when he dribbled out of control into a double team and threw an interior pass through Holmes’ legs, but the overall performance was encouraging for a guy who was averaging just 12.6 minutes coming into the game.

Julien Lewis also chipped in 15 points for Texas, but had a highly inefficient performance. His scoring came on 40% shooting from the field, including just 20% from behind the arc. Lewis elevated well on his jumpers, but was lacking accuracy until he heated up late in the game.

What needed work

Unfortunately, Lewis also coughed it up four times, including a pair of frustrating, unforced errors. On one possession, he was whistled for a five second call as he simply watched the screening and cutters inside the arc. Late in the game, he rolled the ball off of his foot as Chris Babb defended him on the baseline.

Those turnovers were representative of the kind of frustrating afternoon Texas had at Hilton. Every time the Longhorns tried to make a run to make a serious dent in the Iowa State lead, turnovers or questionable shot selection stifled the momentum. With Texas down just six in the second half, Lewis was called for a carry as Texas rushed up the court. Late in the game, he threw a pass behind Ioannis Papapetrou in transition when the Horns were down by seven.

In the first half, the Texas turnovers were just as painful. Holmes dropped a pass off his foot, Papapetrou couldn’t handle a heater from Lewis as he crashed in from the corner, and the team was called for a 10-second violation against backcourt pressure from Iowa State. Although the Longhorns posted a turnover percentage of 17.5%, much better than their season average, the miscues were either unforced or came at the worst possible times.

In addition, the Texas turnovers exposed some very bad transition defense. The Cyclones repeatedly beat the Longhorns down the court, and spread the floor very well. Texas players failed to find shooters as they ran back on defense, and Iowa State knocked down multiple transition threes as a result. On the afternoon, the Cyclones scored a whopping 23 points off of Texas miscues.

The transition scoring wasn’t limited to possessions after a turnover. The Longhorns also failed to get back after missed shots, allowing open threes or easy buckets at the rim. In one instance midway through the first half, Javan Felix drew the wrath of Coach Barnes when he failed to stop the ball after missing a fadeaway jumper. Will Clyburn easily put the small guard on his hip and hit a trailing Percy Gibson in the lane for two.

Texas also had a very difficult time closing out on the Iowa State shooters, although much credit has to be given to the Cyclones for crisp ball movement and hustle plays. A few of the wide-open threes came after Iowa State won a loose ball or long rebound and the Texas defense was caught scrambling. On many of the others, the Cyclones exploited one mistake by a defender and moved the ball quickly to get the Horns rotating and chasing the play.

On the offensive end, the Texas struggles continued in this game. Papapetrou had a few nice plays and knocked down a pair of triples, but at times forced things out of the flow of the offense. In the first half, a few of his three-point attempts came early in the shot clock as he tried to quickly respond to an ISU trey. On the afternoon, Papapetrou sank just 36% of his looks. Texas clearly needs more scorers, and Papi has the ability to boost the offense, but he has to be smarter with his shot selection.

Jaylen Bond also had a mixed performance on Saturday afternoon. He did some excellent work on the glass early, but struggled to put the ball in the basket. Bond showed the ability to drive from the perimeter, but the end result was often an ugly, contested shot in the lane. If Jaylen can actually use that newfound driving ability and convert some short jumpers, the Longhorns suddenly have another offensive option. On the other hand, if those drives end in the kind of looks he threw up on Saturday, that will simply waste possessions.

Texas also had trouble scoring inside on second and third chances, despite the size advantage. The Longhorns reclaimed 36.8% of their missed shots, a very strong showing against an Iowa State team that was ranked in the Top 20 for defensive rebounding. However, Texas missed numerous tip-ins and putbacks, failing to turn those extended possessions into points. With an offense that struggles to score in halfcourt sets, Texas has to start converting those offensive boards into easy buckets.

Up next: vs. Kansas (14-1 overall, 2-0 Big 12); Saturday, 1 P.M. CT

The Texas Longhorns are 0-2 in Big 12 Conference play for the first time under Rick Barnes, sitting just a game above .500 as they travel to Hilton Coliseum to face a tough Iowa State Cyclones squad this afternoon. The Longhorns are at risk of going 0-3 in conference play for the first time since 1997-98, the last season for Tom Penders on the 40 Acres. After dropping games to Missouri, Kansas, and Oklahoma to open their conference slate that season, the Horns finished 10th in the league with an ugly 6-10 mark.

Texas and Iowa State are both entering this game after suffering heartbreaking overtime losses on Wednesday night. The Longhorns lost a 10-point lead to West Virginia in the game’s final two minutes, while Iowa State was seconds away from their first win at Allen Fieldhouse since 2005. A banked-in three-pointer by KU’s Ben McLemore tied the game in the final seconds and swung the momentum to the Jayhawk bench, allowing them to cruise to a win in overtime.

For Texas, the loss put their already-slim hopes of a 15th-consecutive NCAA tournament appearance on life support. Although the Big 12 has six teams ranked in the Top 55 of the RPI, a rough start to the season means that the Horns have to really impress down the stretch. Snagging a few quality wins in conference play won’t be enough this season. The Longhorns have to beat some solid opposition on the road as well as at the Erwin Center. Hilton Coliseum is arguably the second or third toughest road venue in the Big 12, so pulling off an upset will be a tall order this afternoon.

By the numbers

As was the case last season, Iowa State lives and dies by the three-point shot. More than 40% of the team’s attempts come from behind the arc, with 34.3% of the team’s scoring being done from downtown. Both of those marks are in the Top 40 of Division I hoops, while the team’s 35.9% success rate from long range is 76th in the country.

With so much of the offense coming from behind the perimeter, the Cyclones rarely get to the line. The team’s free throw rate is only 29.7%, ranking Iowa State 294th out of 347 D-I teams in that metric. In simpler terms, it means that for every ten field goals that ISU takes, they earn roughly three free throw attempts. Surprisingly, when the ‘Clones do make it to the line, they shoot a very average 69.2%. With a former sharpshooter like Hoiberg at the head of the bench, one would expect much better numbers.

Another set of surprising numbers for Iowa State come on the glass. The Cyclones are ranked in the Top 20 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages, reclaiming nearly 39% of their misses, while limiting opponents to less than 26% on the other end. Texas has been crippled by terrible defensive rebounding late in the losses to Baylor and West Virginia. Allowing Iowa State that same kind of dominance on the offensive glass will be deadly this afternoon.

With great outside shooting and offensive boards extending possessions, the Cyclones have one of the nation’s most efficient offenses. Iowa State puts in an adjusted 1.111 points per possession according to Ken Pomeroy, the 23rd-best mark in the nation. Texas’ defensive efficiency is ranked 5th in the country, with the Longhorns allowing 0.844 points each time down the court. Something has to give this afternoon, and the outcome of the battle on that end of the court could easily decide the outcome.

Meet the Cyclones

Coach Hoiberg brought together a motley crew of transfers last season as he took the Cyclones to the third round of the NCAA tournament, and he again is relying on second-chance guys this season. Former Michigan State point guard Korie Lucious (No. 13) runs the show for Iowa State, where he’s averaging more than 10 points and five assists per game. Lucious is a quick guard with an outside shot and driving ability, but still struggles in the decision-making department.

Shot selection and turnovers were major issues when Lucious backed up Kalin Lucas at Michigan State, and those are still problems now that he’s in Ames. There are many possessions where the point guard takes challenged, first-side three-pointers, and you can almost always tell when he’s going to jack one up. He also has moments where he wants to be “the guy” and tries to over-penetrate against a set defense. When Lucious plays as a facilitator and as a catch-and-shoot guy from beyond the arc, he’s an incredible asset. When he’s trying to play hero ball, the Iowa State offense suffers.

The other new transfer for the Cyclones is former Utah swingman Will Clyburn (No. 21). At 6’7″, he has great slashing ability from the wings and loves to attack the rim and get to the stripe. Although Iowa State doesn’t earn many free throws as a team, Clyburn is certainly the exception. His personal free throw rate is 48%, meaning he earns almost one shot at the line for every two field goals.

Clyburn is tops on the team with 14.2 points per game and is the team’s second-best rebounder with 7.4 boards. He snags 18% of his defensive rebounding opportunities per game, ranking him 350th in the nation according to Pomeroy.

If Sheldon McClellan is tasked with stopping Clyburn, he will likely have difficulty cutting off dribble penetration. To make matters worse, Hoiberg also likes mixing in some post-up opportunities for Clyburn on the block, so the Horns could find their star battling foul trouble.

Another transfer on the Iowa State roster is lockdown defender Chris Babb (No. 2). Unlike Lucious and Clyburn, Babb already has a year under his belt with the Cyclones. Longhorn fans should remember him well, as Babb knocked down 5-of-9 from behind the arc in Iowa State’s win at Hilton Coliseum last season.

While Texas will have to deal with him on the perimeter in this one, the Horns will also have to try to beat him on the defensive end. It’s likely he will be tasked with shutting down McClellan or Julien Lewis, so Texas will have to repeatedly run Babb through screens to free up their shooters. McClellan has shown that he can be easily frustrated when he’s not getting open, so that is a matchup worth watching when Texas has the ball.

In the middle, the Canadian Melvin Ejim (No. 3) is rather undersized at 6’6″. Despite that, Ejim is a vaccuum on the defensive glass, reclaiming 27.3% of his opportunities. That ranks him 13th nationally, while his impressive 13.1% mark on the offensive glass is good enough for 87th in the country.

On offense, Ejim fits perfectly in Hoiberg’s perimeter oriented system. He has great handles and can face up opposing forwards on the arc to take them off the bounce. Although he doesn’t take a ton of threes, he has made 38.5% of his attempts on the season, so opposing defenders have to respect that threat. That opens up driving lanes for Clyburn and also makes Ejim an option on the pick-and-pop.

Another good-shooting big man for Iowa State is freshman Georges Niang (No. 31), who earned his second career start against Kansas on Wednesday night. Like Ejim, Niang doesn’t take many threes, but has made nearly 35% of them, including some big triples early against KU. He also can spread out the defense as a face-up four man, and is an excellent passer. Niang’s ability to knock down the midrange jumper makes him another pick-and-pop threat, and also makes him a dangerous player in the high-low game.

The team’s sixth man is Tyrus McGee (No. 25), who could easily be a starter for Iowa State or most other teams. Despite playing just over 24 minutes per game, McGee is second on the team with 13.2 points per game. He’s a deadly long-range shooter, canning more than 48% of his attempts on the year.

The senior is also much stronger this year, and he is using that strength plus a great slashing ability to make defenses pay for guarding him too closely. McGee can put it on the floor and get to the rack in a hurry, and he has the bulk to get his shot up through contact. Texas still needs to be primarily concerned with his outside shooting, but the Horns also have to be ready to rotate and help when he blows past tight perimeter D.

With Niang likely to earn a third career start today, sophomore center Percy Gibson (No. 24) will have to come off the bench. Ranked as the top recruit out of Detroit two years ago, Gibson is averaging about 16 minutes per game and had started the four games prior to Wednesday night.

Gibson is a long and lean 6’9″, so he has more mobility than many other centers and can quickly slide to offer help defense when opponents penetrate. Although he has yet to make a massive impact in his season and a half at Ames, it’s clear that he can be a key player by the end of his collegiate career.

Prior to Gibson’s emergence as a starter, forward Anthony Booker (No. 22) was the fifth man in the starting rotation. The 6’9″ senior is yet another transfer on the Cyclone roster, having begun his career at Southern Illinois. The former Saluki is not a major threat on the offensive end, but is a solid rebounder and interior defender thanks to his vast wingspan.

Keys to the game

1) Defend the perimeter – In two wins against Iowa State last season, the Longhorns limited the Cyclones to 10-for-29 (25.6%) from behind the arc. In the team’s loss at Hilton Coliseum, Texas allowed numerous open looks and the Cyclones knocked down 10-of-21 (47.6%), including a 9-for-12 mark in the first half.

It’s clear that the easiest way to shut down the Iowa State offense is to limit their damage from long range. Texas has to keep close watch on McGee and Babb, and the team must force Lucious to take his three-pointers off the bounce.

2) Secure the defensive boards – An inability to close out defensive possessions with a rebound was the main reason that Texas could not put away Baylor or West Virginia over the last week. Facing an Iowa State team that is excellent on the offensive glass only makes this problem even more critical. The Longhorns need to get bodies on the perimeter players when shots go up, and they must also realize that all of those long-range attempts are going to lead to some long rebounds. If the Horns are actually able to limit Iowa State’s three-point effectiveness, they cannot afford to then waste that defensive effort by giving up second and third chances.

3) Establish an inside presence early – Texas found success in their games against Iowa State last season by pounding the ball inside from the opening whistle. The Longhorns have a decided size advantage in the paint, and they need to exploit that today. Cameron Ridley needs to establish good post position and not rush his shots, while Jaylen Bond will need to scrap on the offensive boards and provide some easy points.

Iowa State is a completely different team when Niang is on the floor, so this key to the game has a second layer. Saddling Niang with foul trouble makes the Cyclones much more one-dimensional on offense, and makes it easier for Texas to focus on perimeter defense. Iowa State folded in overtime against Kansas, and while momentum had a lot to do with that, Niang’s fifth foul also played a huge role. If Texas can take him out of the game, their odds for a big road upset can only go up.

The series between Texas and West Virginia has a short history, but it has been memorable in every way. The Longhorns hold a 2-1 edge all-time versus the Mountaineers, as WVU comes to the Erwin Center tonight for the first time as members of the Big 12.

The teams last met in 2006, with Texas’ Kenton Paulino hitting a buzzer-beating three in the Sweet 16 just moments after Kevin Pittsnogle had tied it up on a three-pointer of his own. That was actually the second meeting of the season between the two teams, as LaMarcus Aldridge raced the length of the court to block a potential game-winning shot as time expired in a November meeting in Kansas City.

While the stakes are much lower in tonight’s matchup and the squads are not quite as talented, it’s sure to be memorable, even if only for its historical importance. The Mountaineers have scuttled this season, performing well below the expectations that had them squarely in the middle of the Big 12 pack. Texas has also failed to live up to its preseason buzz, putting the Horns far outside of the bubble as league play kicks into gear.

If the Longhorns have any hope to stay relevant down the stretch, they will have to take care of business at home against the teams that will finish in the bottom half of the league. Even though the Mountaineers are down, tonight’s game is still very important for Texas’ big-picture goals.

By the numbers

As is to be expected with any Bob Huggins team, the Mountaineers are a physical bunch that hits the glass hard and takes care of the basketball. West Virginia turns it over on less than 18% of its possessions, a mark that ranks in the Top 40 nationally. The ‘Eers also reclaim 38.6% of their missed shots, an offensive rebounding mark that is 25th-best in the country.

That ability to win second chances is huge for a team that has simply struggled to put the ball in the basket all season long. West Virginia’s effective field goal percentage is an ugly 43.8%, one of the 50 worst marks out of the nation’s 347 D-I teams, and actually a few percentage points worse than Texas’ eFG%. Many of the team’s struggles come from behind the arc, where the Mountaineers have made just 28.7% of their looks.

Fortunately, those extended possessions and an ability to get to the line have kept West Virginia’s offensive efficiency numbers respectable. The Mountaineers score an adjusted 1.016 points per possession according to stat guru Ken Pomeroy, with more than 24% of the team’s points coming from the charity stripe. As West Virginia moves more towards a dribble-drive offense and away from a five-man motion look, the team is only seeing that free-throw production go up.

On the other side of the ball, West Virginia is statistically average. Their adjusted defensive efficiency ranks just in the top third of D-I teams, as they allow 0.958 points per possession. West Virginia’s defensive turnover percentage, defensive rebounding percentage, and defensive free-throw rate are all within a few spots of the national median. For a Texas team that is suffering from the worst offensive woes of Rick Barnes‘ tenure on the Forty Acres, that average WVU defense could make the Mountaineers very welcome visitors.

Meet the Mountaineers

West Virginia has a group of talented ballhandlers in the backcourt, giving Coach Huggins some lineup flexibility. It’s also allowed the Mountaineers to shift to more of a dribble-drive offense in the last few weeks, something that helps to alleviate the team’s jump shooting nightmares and leads to free points at the stripe.

Sophomore guard Juwan Staten (No. 3) is the only Mountaineer averaging more than 24 minutes per game, as he clocks in for more than 32 minutes on the court every night. A transfer from Dayton, Staten can run the point, but also has incredible speed and nice driving ability to get to the rim. He has a reliable floater in his arsenal and uses good body control to get off some difficult shots against interior pressure.

Staten’s 11 points per game and 20.4% assist rate are both tops on the team, and he also rebounds fairly well on the defensive glass. The sophomore can often be found slicing in from the weak side to snag the board and close out a good WVU stop.

The 5’11” Jabarie Hinds (No. 4) is another sophomore guard with good handles, but his role is undoubtedly that of a shooter. Although he’s shown off a quick, dangerous stepback jumper at times, the young New Yorker is still battling consistency issues. Hinds’ true shooting percentage just barely cracks the 40% barrier, a major problem for a guard who doesn’t get to the rack or the line with any regularity.

The third guard in the starting lineup is Terry Henderson (No. 15), an exciting freshman who played his way into the starting five after just a few games. Although he’s only made 36% of his threes on the season, Henderson is coming off a blistering 6-of-11 performance beyond the arc in Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma. The 6’3″ North Carolina product also gets out and runs the floor well in transition, and his long wingspan makes him a tough defensive presence on the perimeter.

Inside, senior Deniz Kilicli (No. 13) was being counted on to help offset the losses of leaders Kevin Jones and Truck Bryant from last year’s team. Unfortunately, his consistent foul trouble has limited his time on the court and made it tough for him to be the veteran leader this young team needs.

When he’s on the court, Kilicli is one of the nation’s best offensive rebounders and uses brute strength to get to the rim. He also loves the hook and baby hook, but will take both almost exclusively with his left hand. Opponents who take away his preferred hand can easily turn him into nothing more than a passing big man who has to score on putbacks.

The other thing that West Virginia is missing with the departure of Jones and Bryant is scoring. That pair accounted for 52% of the team’s points last season, and La Salle transfer Aaric Murray is helping to pick up some of the slack inside. Like Kilicli, Murray has battled foul trouble this season, and is often visibly frustrated when relegated to the bench. Early whistles can get in the big man’s head and quickly throw him off his game.

When Murray is clicking, though, he has a very nice offensive package. His soft touch and smooth spin moves make it easy for him to score in the post, and the recent development of his outside game just makes him a tougher matchup. Murray still needs to work on his interior passing, but he is still a reliable scorer and rebounder who averages 10.5 points and 7.5 boards per game.

When Kilicli and Murray find themselves in foul trouble, senior Dominique Rutledge (No. 1) sees a spike in minutes. He has a nice wingspan, does an excellent job on the defensive glass in his limited minutes, and is crafty with the ball when they feed him in the paint. While he’s averaging only about 13 minutes per game, Rutledge has been called upon for some 20-plus minute performances on nights where Kilicli and Murray can’t manage to stay on the court.

The other big man on the bench is 6’10” sophomore Kevin Noreen (No. 34), who has yet to make much of an impact in his year and a half. He’s averaging almost 15 minutes per game, up a bit from his 12 minute average of last year, but he usually contributes just a few boards during his short stints on the court.

Off the bench, sophomore Gary Browne (No. 14) is the third ball-handling guard for Coach Huggins, and his extensive experience as a freshman makes him a dangerous sixth man. Although he’s another option to run the point, Browne definitely has a scorer’s mentality and an ability to get himself open looks. Like most of the team, however, the sophomore isn’t consistently making those open looks, shooting just 31.1% from the floor and 18.2% behind the arc.

Fellow sophomore Keaton Miles (No. 55) also brings a lot of experience from his freshman year, when he started numerous games at the three. He’s a strong, broad-shouldered 6’7″ forward from Dallas who isn’t much of an offensive threat, but can be downright annoying on the defensive end. His block percentage and steal percentage both rank in the Top 200 nationally, as he has posted 5.7% and 3.5% so far, respectively.

Freshman guard Eron Harris (No. 10) rounds out the core rotation, chipping in about 12 minutes per game. Although he’s made an impression on the defensive end when the Mountaineers turn up their pressure, he has also proven that he can pile up some points in a hurry. In just his second collegiate game, Harris put up 15 points in a blowout of Marist at the Old Spice Classic, one of four times he’s cracked double-digits in scoring this season.

Keys to the game

1) Limit West Virginia’s second chances – The Longhorns did a fantastic job on the defensive glass against Baylor for the first 20 minutes of Saturday’s game. It was their inability to close out possessions down the stretch that proved deadly, however, as the Bears reclaimed more than 54% of their misses in the second half.

West Virginia is a great offensive rebounding team, and it’s one of the few things they do well on that half of the court. The Longhorns have showcased one of the nation’s best defenses so far this season, but that won’t mean much if they allow the Mountaineers second and third chances. If Texas can lock down the glass, their solid defense and the struggling West Virginia offense should combine to keep the ‘Eers from lighting up the scoreboard.

2) Keep West Virginia off the charity stripe – Another crippling blow to Texas’ upset chances on Saturday was a defensive free throw rate of 70.3%. In simpler terms, that means that the Longhorns sent the Bears to the line seven times for every ten field goals that Baylor took.

While the Bears managed to do this by attacking the paint with a dominant front line, West Virginia gets to the line thanks to some quick, shifty guards. The method may be different, but the concern is the same for Texas. The Mountaineers score nearly a quarter of their points from the stripe and shoot roughly two free throws for every five field goals. The Longhorns need to turn back West Virginia’s dribble penetration and avoid giving up free throws when the primary defenders can’t hold the guards.

3) Handle West Virginia’s pressure on the perimeter – The Mountaineers aren’t a bunch that will turn opponents over with much frequency, but they do love to frustrate opponents with pesky pressure on the perimeter. West Virginia makes it difficult for other teams to get their half-court sets going, challenging opposing guards well beyond the arc and forcing plays to start 20-plus feet from the hoop.

Texas has struggled with turnovers all season long, even against teams that don’t traditionally force miscues. One place where the Longhorns have been particularly bad at ball control is on the perimeter, where lazy feeds and telegraphed swing passes are picked off and turned into fast break points. The Longhorn guards have to be aware of this potential for disaster and make passes with purpose, especially when working the ball around the arc.