Last year, the one consistent storyline throughout the season was a lack of quality wins. The Longhorns spent the entire season on the bubble, with every win crucial to what would eventually become the program’s 14th-consecutive NCAA bid. Thanks to an inability to win close games, Texas finished the season with just three victories against the RPI Top 100, while its fans sweated the bubble until a Big 12 tournament win over Iowa State.

Although most fans have already written this season off as an abject failure, the truth is that we’re only about a third of the way through it. The absence of both Jaylen Bond and Myck Kabongo has been crippling, as evidenced in low offensive rebounding numbers and a sky-high turnover rate. The return of one or both of those players can only make the Longhorns better and increase the odds that they pull off some quality wins in league play.

Unfortunately, the Big 12 is under-performing to an alarming degree this season. Predicted to be a deep, difficult conference in 2012-13, the Big 12 now looks like Kansas, a couple of challengers, and a whole lot of muck. That gives the Longhorns six conference games against current RPI Top 50 teams and another six games against teams ranked between 51 and 100, with West Virginia just a few losses away from falling below that critical threshold.

Texas could certainly build a résumé on wins against OU, Baylor, and Iowa State, but it wouldn’t hold much weight when considered alongside a loss to D-II Chaminade. So, while no one would consider a mid-December game a “must win,” the importance of tonight’s game against UNC cannot be understated. The Tar Heels are young and inconsistent, and this match-up provides the opportunity for a quality win that can add some meat to the tournament résumé.

To pull off the upset without those two key Longhorns would not only impress the critics, but it would also give this inexperienced team some confidence heading into conference play. On the other hand, a loss does little to harm reputation. Many observers have already written the obituary on the 2012-13 Texas season, and another loss would likely go unnoticed. Tonight is a low-risk, high-reward situation for these young Longhorns, who have made some key improvements in the last two weeks. Now, fans will get to see what direction the team will be headed in for the next three months.

By the numbers

As usual, the Tar Heels love to get out and push the tempo, with their 75.4 possessions per game the third-fastest adjusted pace in Division I. While no one would confuse North Carolina with the pressure-loving teams of Mike Anderson, the Tar Heels can and do force mistakes, and they are always looking up court after rebounds and made buckets.

With John Henson and Tyler Zeller gone to the NBA, North Carolina is no longer an inside-out team that looks for paint touches every possession. Instead, this year’s Tar Heel squad loves to shoot it from outside. The team takes 28.7% of its shots from behind the arc, up from 23.5% a season ago. While North Carolina is not going to indiscriminately fire up three-pointers, this season definitely features a different approach to the half-court game.

As a result of the new look, North Carolina hardly ever gets to the free throw line. The Heels have a free-throw rate of just 22.6%, meaning they earn about one free throw for every five field goal attempts. That is the fifth-worst mark in all of D-I hoops, but it might actually be good for the sanity of North Carolina’s fans. The Heels have made less than 65% of their shots at the charity stripe, putting them in the bottom third nationally.

When looking at the big picture, the Heels are an imposing bunch on both ends of the court. North Carolina has an adjusted offensive efficiency of 1.08 points per possession, while allowing opponents an adjusted mark of just 0.891 points each time down the floor. Good interior defense and a solid job on the glass are both big components of that defensive dominance.

Meet the Tar Heels

With Kendall Marshall joining Henson and Zeller in this summer’s NBA Draft, the Heels have to rely on freshman Marcus Paige (No. 5) to run the show. The Iowa product is more of a scoring point, which is a marked difference from the pass-first approach that Marshall brought to the table. Paige is still adjusting to the college game, as evidenced by his early problems with turnovers. But after coughing it up four times in his collegiate debut and not logging a single assist, he’s steadily improved that ratio to a 1.36 assist-to-TO mark on the season.

Senior Dexter Strickland (No. 1) has spent much of his collegiate career as the backup point guard in Chapel Hill, and the arrival of Paige allowed him to move off the ball to the shooting guard spot. Still, he can’t completely leave that old role behind. With Paige more of a scoring guard, Strickland has actually taken over the team lead in assists. He’s averaging five per game, and that resurgence as a floor general gives Coach Roy Williams incredible flexibility in the backcourt with a pair of guards that can both run the point and also score in bunches.

Strickland is much better as a slashing, driving guard, but he’s clearly been working on the jump shot. Although he’s only made 26.7% from behind the arc this season, Dexter is still taking the triples and long-range twos a few times each game. That persistence seems to finally be paying off, as his accuracy on mid and long-range jumpers has improved over the last few games.

The third guard for the Tar Heels is 6’7″ sharpshooter Reggie Bullock (No. 35). That height makes it tough for opposing guards and wings to prevent him from launching three-pointers, and he’s more than happy to take advantage. More than 55% of his shots have come from behind the arc this season, and Bullock has knocked down 46.9% of those attempts. He’s not a guy who is going to put the ball on the floor and get to the rack, so opponents have to stay in his shirt and communicate when he’s run off of screens.

Although Bullock is an incredibly dangerous offensive weapon, the team’s new star is sophomore James Michael McAdoo (No. 43). A relative of the great Bob McAdoo, this soft-spoken big man is a handful for opposing defenses. McAdoo has a good post repertoire, a great midrange game, and is a confident, aggressive driver. He also has a quick release and makes swift post moves, so defenses are often caught off-guard when he suddenly pops an uncontested look. McAdoo is tops on the team with 15.4 points per game and 8.3 boards.

The fifth starting spot has belonged to a rotating cast of characters, but it was most occupied by freshman Brice Johnson (No. 11). At 6’9″, the freshman from South Carolina is still very thin and wiry compared to most opposing post players. Still, he has a knack for finding the ball near the rim, and he makes great cuts without the ball to get himself in scoring position. His great hops and athleticism also make him tough on the boards, and he’s already provided some rim-rattling dunks this season. With some more experience and a few more pounds of muscle, Johnson is going to be a very exciting player for the Heels.

The other post option is fellow freshman Joel James (No. 0), a 6’10” big man with a soft touch and a lot of raw talent. He didn’t begin playing organized basketball until his sophomore year of high school, so there’s still a lot of learning on the fly for James. He lets himself get pushed out of position on the blocks and on the boards, so he will have to improve his court awareness and his assertiveness to make a bigger impact for UNC. Self-improvement has been no problem for James, however, a fact he proved by losing more than 50 pounds in one summer. If he applies that mental focus to improving his post game, this skilled big is going to be a beast in the ACC.

Off the bench, P.J. Hairston (No. 15) is a strong, aggressive guard who can put the ball on the floor and get to the rim. At 6’5″ and 220 pounds, he’s a handful for most defenders, and he has the strength to fight through contact. When he’s being confident and decisive, Hairston can take over a game. When he’s not providing that spark for the offense, it clearly shows for North Carolina. He did not make the trip to Indiana after spraining his knee in practice, and the offense sorely missed his ability to create as they were blown out by the Hoosiers.

Leslie McDonald (No. 2) is a junior who also brings a scoring punch off the bench. His 10 points per game is fourth on the team, despite the fact he’s started only one game. McDonald shoots threes even more often than Bullock, having taken nearly 57% of his shots from long range this year. Bullock does top him in one category, though, as McDonald’s 46.7% accuracy is just a bit shy of the team lead.

The final member of the core rotation is freshman J.P. Tokoto (No. 25), a solid defender with a lot of length. Tokoto has an impressive wingspan that he uses to disrupt passing lanes and challenge shots, and his lateral quickness on the perimeter makes it tough to beat him. Like fellow freshman Johnson, Tokoto has athleticism in spades and possesses the ability to jump right out of the gym.

Desmond Hubert (No. 14) and Luke Davis (No. 4) will also likely see limited action in this one. Hubert was the fifth starter for many of the early-season games, but his ineffectiveness in the post has limited him to a reserve role. Davis provides a few minutes per game at the point, and is playing as a walk-on after transferring following his freshman season at Gardner-Webb.

Keys to the game

1) Stop the ball in transition – North Carolina is practically unstoppable when they are piling up the points in transition, as the sophomore class of Longhorns can remember well from their visit to Chapel Hill last season. The Tar Heels are still inconsistent in the half-court set, a fact made glaringly clear in their losses to Butler and Indiana. If Texas can prevent the Tar Heels from getting easy buckets in transition and force them to work for their points in the half court, that already-tough Longhorn D can really stifle the UNC attack.

2) Push McAdoo out of his comfort zone – One player who is especially dangerous even in those half-court sets is the future NBA star McAdoo. If he gets the ball in a post-up situation, he doesn’t even need time to feel up the defender and then make a move. He can quickly spin and pop a jumper, or go right to the effective baby hook. Where he’s most deadly, though, is catching the ball as he’s already moving towards the hoop. With his long legs and one power dribble, he can get to the rim in an instant and finish for two.

For Texas, this means that McAdoo has to be forced off of the blocks and has to receive passes with his back to the hoop or his momentum moving away from the rim. There’s no way Texas can do this on every possession, but if they can force McAdoo into the spots they want him for much of the game, it will certainly limit his effectiveness.

3) Silence the three-point shooters – Shutting down McAdoo won’t make much of a difference if Bullock or McDonald get hot from long range. Both players have proven they can score in a hurry, as McDonald dropped six triples on Mississippi State and another five on UAB, while Bullock has made at least three of them in five different games. Although it can be very hard to prevent the lanky Bullock from getting his shot off, the Longhorns need to chase him off the perimeter and they need to challenge McDonald’s looks.

4) Clean up the defensive glass – Even if Texas can do all of these things on defense, it still will be a futile effort if they don’t close out possessions with defensive rebounds. Fortunately, the Heels have had some major struggles on the offensive glass against quality competition, so the chances are good for the Longhorns.

In UNC’s win over East Carolina on Saturday, not a single Tar Heel post player reclaimed one of his team’s missed shots. It was the third time Carolina was held to an offensive rebounding mark of less than 30%, with the other two coming in losses to Butler and Indiana.

Texas has done an average job so far this season on the defensive glass, but the team is coming off two strong rebounding performances against UCLA and Texas State. The Longhorns held both teams to offensive rebounding marks under 27%, which is impressive when you consider the length on that Bruin squad with the likes of Kyle Anderson and the Wear twins. If the Horns can continue that recent trend tonight, they can keep themselves in this ballgame until the end.

5) Hang on to the ball – As promised, the perennial Key to the Game returns for the North Carolina match-up. While the Heels aren’t a team that is pressuring 100% of the time, they do key in on weaknesses that present opportunities to trap and press. Against a Longhorn team that has frequently turned it over, you can be sure that Coach Williams will throw in a few extra pressure situations to force mistakes and fuel that transition game.

The Longhorns have done a much better job at controlling the basketball in their last two games against UCLA and Texas State, but it will be challenging to do the same against North Carolina tonight. The last time they faced a team with this much length and athleticism, the Longhorns turned it over on 32% of their possessions against Georgetown. If they can avoid that kind of meltdown tonight, the Horns will at least have a chance to pull off an impressive upset.

The Texas Longhorns take a brief reprieve from their brutal December schedule, retuning home this evening to host Texas State. The Horns are in desperate need of a win, coming off of a demoralizing loss to Georgetown in New York and a late-game meltdown against UCLA in Houston. Fortunately, the Bobcats have historically been an agreeable non-con visitor, losing the last 23 times in their series with Texas.

The Longhorns were headed in the right direction last Saturday, although the final four minutes of their loss to UCLA might have erased those memories from the minds of most Texas fans. Ball movement was crisp on the offensive end, players were moving consistently off the ball, and Cameron Ridley put in his a solid performance for the second consecutive game. Most importantly, the Longhorns did a fantastic job controlling the basketball for a majority of the game, although the turnover bug caught up with them in crunch time.

Tonight, it’s imperative that Texas continue to build on the things that were done correctly against UCLA. If the Longhorns can once again control the basketball against a Texas State team that pushes the tempo and forces mistakes, they will perhaps start to believe that they can overcome those issues. If Ridley and Javan Felix can follow up their strong performances with another good outing tonight, their confidence will be higher heading into two very tough games against North Carolina and Michigan State. Conference play is just three weeks away, so Texas has very few opportunities left to reinforce good habits and change the psychology of a team that Sheldon McClellan said is made up of “guys [who] don’t believe we can win.”

By the numbers

As has been the case since Coach Doug Davalos arrived on campus in 2006, the Bobcats love to get out and run. In each of Davalos’ first five seasons, Texas State was one of the five fastest teams in D-I hoops. Even last year, the Bobcats still were the seventh-fastest team in the nation, squeezing more than 72 possessions out of every game. This year, they are averaging more than 75 possessions per game, the third-quickest tempo in the country.

Historically, the Longhorns have had very little problem with the up-tempo approach of the Bobcats. In their six meetings with a Davalos-led Texas State squad, the Horns have averaged 79.5 possessions and have scored 1.153 points each time down the floor.

As it has been all season, the primary area for concern for the Longhorns is in controlling the basketball. Even after posting a turnover mark of just 15.5% against UCLA last Saturday, Texas still has a 26.6% turnover percentage for the year, one of the 20 worst marks in D-I hoops. The Bobcats, meanwhile, force mistakes on more than 24% of their opponents’ possessions. This evening’s game will provide a very good test for the Texas ballhandlers, one which should show whether or not the team’s improvement in ball control was the start of a trend or just a statistical blip.

On the other end of the court, Texas State has struggled to score consistently this season. According to Ken Pomeroy, their adjusted offensive efficiency is 0.955 points per possession, thanks in large part to an inability to reclaim missed shots. The Bobcats have grabbed just 28.9% of their offensive rebounding opportunities, one of the 100 worst marks in Division I.

The Longhorns were killed on the defensive glass in those painful final minutes against UCLA, so this offers a good chance for Texas to improve in that department. With only one member of the core Bobcat rotation checking in over 6’7″, there’s no reason why the Horns shouldn’t dominate on the glass tonight.

Meet the Bobcats

Texas State brings back quite a bit of experience this year, as three of the Bobcat starters faced off against Texas at the Erwin Center last season. The team has six upperclassmen, including a pair of JUCO transfers that have cracked the starting rotation.

Point guard Vonn Jones (No. 1) had a rough year shooting the ball as a junior, but has made good strides so far in his senior campaign. Jones is the team’s best three-point threat, leading the team in both attempts (33) and accuracy (45.5%). Coach Davalos also believes that Jones has improved his defense in the offseason, something that has helped him keep the starting job and average 24 minutes per game.

Wesley Davis (No. 10) joins Jones in the backcourt, where he’s started every game as a sophomore. Davis was recruited to be a shooter for the Bobcats, but has taken only about 17% of the team’s looks when he’s been on the floor. Perhaps the most confounding thing about Davis is his career mark of 64.5% from the line. For someone who is supposed to be launching it regularly, that level of accuracy on the easiest of shots is incredibly troubling.

JUCO transfers Joel Wright (No. 25) and Corey Stern (No. 5) have combined for 11 starts and more than 24 points per game. The addition of this pair of 6’7″ guys was supposed to be the solution to poor rebounding numbers from a year before, but results have been mixed so far. Wright has certainly done his part, posting an offensive rebounding percentage that ranks him as one of the Top 100 players nationally. Per game, his 6.2 rebounds are tops on the team, while Stern has managed just 4.4 per game.

In the middle, senior Matt Staff (No. 21) is still the team’s only true big man, checking in at 6’10”. He leads the team in both minutes and points, scoring more than 16 in just over 27 minutes per game. If the Longhorns can get him in foul trouble, as they did to UCLA’s Travis Wear last Saturday, they will suddenly have quite the size advantage over the Bobcats.

With Wright and Stern working their way into the starting five, junior Reid Koenen (No. 3) has shifted to a sixth-man role. The 6’7″ Wisconsin native is now back in his comfortable role of small forward, where he can match up better with quick opponents on the wings.

Also coming off the bench is freshman Phil Hawkins (No. 0), who was expected to challenge Jones for the starting point guard spot this year. While Hawkins hasn’t made any starts yet, he’s still averaging nearly 18 minutes per game. Turnovers have been holding back his progress this year, as he’s coughed it up 17 times against just eight assists.

Guards Darius Richardson (No. 13) and Ray Dorsey (No. 4) round out the core rotation for Texas State. Richardson is a strong 6’4″ guard who can play the two or the three and has seen the court for about 12 minutes per game. He was a regular starter at UT-Arlington before transferring to Texas State, but will have to wait another year before earning that honor for the Bobcats. Dorsey is a 6’3″ freshman who is playing around 10 minutes per game and has as many assists — seven — as buckets this year.

Keys to the game

1) Control the basketball – As promised, this key to the game is keeping its standard spot in the game preview. The Longhorns did a much better job controlling the basketball for a majority of the game against UCLA, but coughed it up when it mattered most. While Texas State hasn’t been a particularly good team this season, they can force mistakes with their up-tempo approach. If Texas wants to avoid the unthinkable upset, they cannot waste possessions with turnovers.

2) Take advantage inside – The Bobcats are undersized and have not done a good job on the glass this season. The Longhorns, meanwhile, have provided some excellent post defense and did a great job scoring in the paint against UCLA. Texas needs to establish a post presence early in this one and work to control the glass, something that has often been a challenge this season.

3) Get Sheldon McClellan going early – Against UCLA, McClellan once again had a rough first half, not even cracking the scoring column for the first 17-plus minutes of the game. He played much more aggressively in the second half, putting the ball on the floor to create better looks rather than relying exclusively on jump shots. While the Horns need to get Ridley the ball early in this game, Sheldon also must be aggressive with the ball to avoid yet another slow start.

Three months ago, the match-up between Texas and UCLA appeared to be one of those early-season non-conference battles that give fans an early taste of March Madness. The Bruins boasted the nation’s top recruiting class and were ranked 13th in both the Associated Press and USA Today Coaches Poll. The Longhorns were a fringe Top 25 team hoping to succeed with a well-seasoned sophomore core.

Since then, Myck Kabongo has been the subject of an interminable NCAA investigation into his eligibility and hasn’t played in a single game. Jaylen Bond suffered separate injuries to both feet, and saw just a few minutes of action in a loss to Division II Chaminade. At UCLA, another NCAA investigation delayed the start of Shabazz Muhammad‘s season by three games, while troubled big man Josh Smith and guard Tyler Lamb have both left the program.

The two teams have identical 5-3 records heading into this afternoon’s contest, taking all of the luster off of what was once an exciting non-conference game. Although the Bruin losses to Georgetown and San Diego State are certainly understandable, going to overtime against UC-Irvine is worthy of some head-scratching. Even worse, UCLA dropped a home game to Cal Poly when Norman Powell lost track of the score and intentionally fouled in a tie game with 14 seconds left.

The Longhorns, meanwhile, suffered the most embarrassing defeat of the young season when they lost to Chaminade in the Maui Invitational. A day later, they fell victim to their own late-game miscues in an overtime loss to USC. Things seemed to be clicking along rather nicely after that, as the Longhorns rebounded to put together a nice three-game win streak with dominating defense. The wheels came off in New York on Tuesday night, however, as Texas turned the ball over on 32% of its possessions in a 23-point loss to Georgetown.

So while today’s game might not be as appealing on paper, it’s now become even more important. For two teams who had high pre-season expectations, their NCAA tournament résumés are now alarmingly empty. Neither team is going to attract national attention by winning this afternoon’s game, but the victors could be earning a Top 100 win that will be beneficial at season’s end. Even more importantly, the loser will fall to just a game above .500, with conference play looming just weeks away.

By the numbers

Long known as a defensive coach who slows down the game, Ben Howland has adjusted to his young, talented roster by opening things up a bit this season. The Bruins are free to push the tempo in transition, and their offense looks much better as a result. UCLA’s tempo is up to 69 possessions per game, a far cry from the sub-65 possessions that the 2006 and 2007 Final Four squads averaged. Although they aren’t racking up fast break points, the secondary break is giving the Bruins lots of good looks for their strong shooters.

Defensively, UCLA isn’t as dominant as they were during the late 2000’s, but they are still very strong on that end of the court. The Bruins are allowing only 0.928 points per possession, thanks to their strong presence on the defensive glass and their ability to play defense without fouling. With a very tall backcourt, UCLA is limiting opponents to a 28.6% success rate on their offensive rebounding opportunities. The Bruins also have a defensive free-throw rate of 25.7%, the 26th-best mark in the country. In simpler terms, that means that UCLA only gives opponents roughly one free throw for every four field goal attempts.

Fortunately for Texas, the Bruins don’t rely on forcing turnovers to shut down their opponents. Of course, that hasn’t meant much for a Longhorn team that is sixth-worst in all of DI hoops when it comes to losing the basketball. The Bruins have a lot of size and their perimeter defense has the luxury of length, so they could rack up the turnovers without really even trying.

Meet the Bruins

The man that runs the offense is point guard Larry Drew II (No. 10), a former UNC Tar Heel who seems to have turned things around in Westwood. In Chapel Hill, Drew was often criticized for under-performing, and he announced his intent to transfer shortly after losing his starting job. Although that looked like the move of a man unwilling to work hard and improve, it’s clear he’s made some major strides since heading west.

Drew has cut way down on his turnovers, posting a nice 6.2 assist-to-turnover ratio so far this season. He’s also improved his midrange shot, although he still much prefers to facilitate. Most importantly, Drew has provided leadership to a team full of young stars.

Although Drew has played nearly 35 minutes per game, the Bruins have some flexibility at the point thanks to freshman phenom Kyle Anderson (No. 5). At 6’9″, he is truly a point-forward who looks completely comfortable handling the ball and running the offense. It looks so effortless when Anderson handles the basketball that it’s very easy to forget that he has six inches over most of his defenders.

Anderson isn’t much of a jump shooter and is averaging only 6.6 points per game, but the matchup problems he creates and the rebounding he brings from the wing are huge contributions. His 8.1 boards are tops on the team, and he’s ranked in the top 300 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates.

The other big name in the freshman class is Shabazz Muhammad (No. 15). Like Anderson, he was a consensus Top 5 recruit in the 2012 class and brings an explosive scoring threat to the Pac-12. He’s a left-handed slasher with a good mid-range game and accuracy that goes beyond the arc. At 6’6″, Muhammad is also a good rebounder from the wings, and he’s second on the team with 5.6 rebounds per game.

The team’s top scorer is Jordan Adams (No. 3), who was the least-heralded member of the top-ranked freshman class. Adams actually started the season on the bench, but played so well that Coach Howland had no choice but to move him into the starting role. The freshman has great body control, so he’s able to work through traffic and get off shots that sometimes seem to defy explanation. Adams is also very strong for his size, so he can muscle up near the paint to finish through contact. He’s also the team’s most consistent outside threat, hitting 37% as he chucks up nearly six three-point attempts per game.

The final piece of the starting rotation is 6’10” junior Travis Wear (No. 24), who also came to UCLA after transferring from North Carolina. Like his twin brother, David, Travis is a great stretch forward who is often used for perimeter screens and is deadly on the pick and pop. Coach Howland has said that both twins bulked up a bit in the offseason and should be better suited to bang down low on offense.

With the freshmen immediately earning playing time, David Wear (No. 12) shifted to a sixth-man role, where he’s earning about 22 minutes per game. The Wear twins both provide a good defensive presence in the lane, although David is not nearly the shot blocker that Travis is. Where David bests his brother, however, is on the offensive glass. So far this season, David has an offensive rebounding rate of 10%, while Travis has grabbed just under 6% of his opportunities.

The other former starter who has been squeezed into a reserve role is guard Norman Powell (No. 4). The sophomore is an excellent perimeter defender and dangerous three-point shooter who still averages nearly 28 minutes per game despite the demotion. Powell also has great closeout speed and seems to come out of nowhere to deflect shots when he’s providing help defense or recovering from behind the play.

The final member of the rotation is also the final member of the highly-touted recruiting class, freshman Tony Parker (No. 23). Although Parker only averages about seven minutes per game, there’s hope that he can fill the role that Josh Smith never quite could. At 6’9″ and 275 pounds, Parker provides a lot of heft in the paint and uses his soft hands to get off a jump hook that earned praise in high school.

Keys to the game

1) Limit the turnovers – Unless things dramatically improve, this key will likely be a mainstay in this portion of the game previews for the rest of the season. Texas is posting turnover numbers that are unheard of in the Rick Barnes era, and the inability to hang on to the ball is rendering the offense completely ineffective.

When the Horns are posting defensive numbers that should keep them in just about every game, it takes a special kind of ugly on the offensive end to still get blown out. The Longhorns managed to find a way to to do that on Tuesday night, and if they can’t eliminate those kinds of mistakes this afternoon, the Horns could be in for another embarrassing performance.

2) Battle on the glass – The Bruins have great rebounders on the wings in Anderson and Muhammad, while the 6’10” Wear twins provide the size inside. That kind of length has propelled the Bruins to a defensive rebounding rate that’s just outside the Top 70 and an offensive rebounding rate that is 102nd in the nation.

Texas has struggled to get rebounds in all three of their losses, and even had trouble getting boards in victories over the smaller Sam Houston State and UT-Arlington squads. Facing a UCLA team that has height advantages all over the court will certainly provide a big challenge for these young Longhorns. Some of the team’s turnover problems can be mitigated by earning second chances, but turning the ball over and failing to get offensive rebounds would be a recipe for the kind of offensive futility Texas fans saw on Tuesday night.

3) Get back on defense – Much of UCLA’s offensive success this season has come on the secondary break, as the Bruins look to push the tempo and attack a disorganized defense. They have been great at finding the open man as the D tries to get set, moving the ball crisply to keep opponents scrambling.

To slow down the UCLA attack, the Longhorns must get back down the floor and force the Bruins to work their halfcourt sets. UCLA has looked weakest against zone defenses, while Texas actually has a pretty solid 2-3 this season. Stopping transition and getting set in that zone will certainly make things tougher on the Bruins.

Rick Barnes and the Texas Longhorns knew they needed to control the basketball against an athletic, talented Georgetown team at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night. “We talked over and over about turning the ball over,” Barnes told reporters after the game.

Those talks didn’t seem to have much effect, however, as Julien Lewis coughed it up on the very first possession. It was the third straight game in which Texas turned it over on their first trip down the court, and it was one of six miscues the Longhorns would log in the first four minutes of the game.

That disastrous opening to the game set the tone for the entire night, as Texas turned it over 22 times, wasting 32% of their possessions. It marked the third time this season the Longhorns posted a turnover percentage of 32% or more, and it raised their season mark to 28.3%, seventh worst out of 347 Division I teams.

The problems started at the top, with point guard Javan Felix having one of the worst games of his young career. The freshman turned it over five times while logging just three assists, and he was a hideous 1-of-9 from the field. Although Felix was able to drive the lane against the Georgetown defense, he missed numerous shots, had others blocked, and had no touch on his preferred weapon of choice, the floater.

The poor shooting was a team-wide epidemic, with the Longhorns making just 29.2% of their shots on the night. Although Georgetown made Texas work for their looks, there were far too many missed opportunities when the Horns did manage to get the ball to the rim. Texas missed 13 shots that were classified as layups on the play-by-play, while Cameron Ridley actually came up short on an embarrassing dunk attempt.

It’s certainly worth noting that Georgetown has length up and down the lineup to a degree that Texas had not yet faced. The Hoyas started four players at least 6’8″ tall, although big man Mikael Hopkins only ended up playing nine minutes on the night.

While that kind of height and length can make it incredibly difficult to score inside or to get off good outside looks against quick closeouts, the Longhorns will soon face many more teams with similar makeups. North Carolina, Baylor, and Kansas all have rosters loaded with athleticism and length, and the Longhorns will face the latter two teams twice each. If Texas can’t figure out a way to make their opportunities count when they get to the rim, the rest of the season is going to be a long, painful journey.

What makes the team’s woes in the paint even more worrisome is that the Longhorns are also not taking advantage at the free-throw line. Ridley made just three of his nine attempts at the charity stripe, dragging the team’s percentage down to 52.4% for the game. It was certainly productive and a sign of progress that the big man earned so many touches in the paint against Georgetown, but he can easily be rendered useless when opponents can simply hack him to prevent scoring. With his season free-throw mark now under 40%, there’s no reason why any opponent should ever give Ridley an easy layup or dunk.

This game also underscored the problems this team will face if Sheldon McClellan is going to be the only player able to create his own looks. Felix is shooting just 34% on the season, including a horrendous 7.7% mark behind the arc. Defenses don’t have to respect his shot and can easily sag off to take away his driving threat. Julien Lewis has proven to be a catch-and-shoot guy, so he’s not one that can be counted on to penetrate and force the defense to react.

At this point, all the eggs are in the Kabongo basket, as the team waits to learn the fate of their sophomore point guard. Although he struggled at times to capitalize on his drives as a freshman, even the mere possibility that he has improved in that regard is better than the options on the table with the current roster.

Texas is also anxiously awaiting the return of Jaylen Bond, a forward who plays much bigger and tougher than his size. The Hoyas repeatedly beat Texas to 50-50 balls in last night’s game, and even ripped a rebound right out of the arms of Jonathan Holmes. If the Longhorns are going to be a poor-shooting team this season, they simply have to show some toughness on the boards. Being held to 28.9% on the offensive glass isn’t going to cut it against the upcoming schedule, so Bond’s return cannot come a minute too soon.

Texas has to bounce back quickly, as a showdown with UCLA awaits on Saturday in Houston. Although the Bruins are under-performing to a shocking degree this season, the Longhorns will still face an uphill battle to earn the win. If they continue to repeat the same mistakes and show the same lack of focus that they have displayed during the first four weeks of the season, this could be the start of a very long December.

Up next: vs. UCLA (5-3), in Houston; Saturday, 4:15 P.M. CT

Since suffering a shameful loss at the hands of Division II Chaminade on the island of Maui, the Longhorn defense has been downright stingy. After the Silverswords lit up the Texas D for 1.11 points per possession, the team has allowed just .740 points per possession in its last four games, and hasn’t allowed a single opponent to score more than .853 per trip. With their D-II loss not factoring into team statistics, the Longhorns now have the third-most efficient defense in the country, and have the best defensive mark in effective field goal percentage.

While the numbers are dominant, they haven’t come against a gauntlet of juggernauts. Mississippi State, Sam Houston State, and UT-Arlington are all averaging less than .9 points per possession on the season, with Southern Cal’s .95 not much better. Tonight’s game against a very talented and versatile Georgetown team will be the first true test for the Longhorn defense, and is only the beginning of a daunting stretch. Texas faces UCLA, North Carolina, and Michigan State in the next three weeks.

By the numbers

The Hoyas are known for their Princeton sets under Coach John Thompson III, and that patient offensive philosophy leads to some low-possession, low-scoring affairs. Georgetown has an adjusted pace of just 63.5 possessions per game so far this year, a tempo that puts them among the 40 slowest teams in D-I. On Friday night, Georgetown and Tennessee combined a 54-possession game with some terrible shooting to provide a glaucoma-inducing 37-36 final.

While the Hoyas mix in some traps and use a quick, active 2-3 zone to pressure opponents, they don’t typically force a ton of turnovers. Georgetown opponents have only given it up on 20.1% of their possessions, just a bit below the national median of 21.1%. Despite not forcing mistakes, the Hoyas still have a solid defense that is ranked 20th nationally in efficiency. As Texas fans know all too well, these young Longhorns have had far too many careless turnovers this season. Against a defense that is already oppressive even without the aid of turnovers, the Horns cannot afford to frequently waste their possessions with lazy or inaccurate passes.

Although Georgetown starts four players that are 6’8″ or taller, their offense does a poor job at extending possessions with rebounds. With their offensive sets often stretching the D across the floor, the Hoyas aren’t usually in position to crash the boards. As a result they have only won 23.3% of their offensive rebounding opportunities, ranking them just 333rd out of 347 D-I teams.

On the other end of the court, Georgetown is dominant on the glass. Opponents reclaim just 26.8% of their missed shots, a stat that is even more impressive when you consider how often the Hoyas use a 2-3 zone on defense. Without any specific box-out assignments in the zone, those kind of defensive rebounding numbers are very difficult to achieve.

Meet the Hoyas

Georgetown uses a balanced attack on the offensive end, as four of their starters average more than 10 points per game. The starting five features four players who are 6’8″ or taller, and all four of them are athletic, versatile players who can switch easily on defense and play a variety of roles in the smooth-flowing offense.

The one starter who doesn’t eclipse that 6’8″ mark is junior guard Markel Starks (No. 5), who checks in at 6’2″. While Starks can go quiet for long stretches, he heats up in a hurry and can score from anywhere on the court. He’s hit more than 44% of his three-point attempts this season, but will also put the ball on the floor to blow by defenses when they close out hard on the perimeter. In two games at the Legends Classic in Brooklyn, Starks lit up for 43 points against UCLA and Indiana, hitting 4-of-7 from beyond the arc against the Hoosiers.

Even though Starks typically brings the ball up the floor, big man Greg Whittington (No. 2) can also handle the basketball. He’s surprisingly deft with the ball for a 6’8″ guy and can play any position from one through four. Whittington has a nice midrange game and can quickly knock down a shot with very little space, but he can also beat defenders off the bounce when they are overzealous with the ball pressure. The sophomore is also doing a beastly job on the glass, averaging nearly nine boards per game. Even when he’s out of position, it seems that Whittington seems to glide through traffic to snatch rebounds out of the air.

Thanks to the length throughout the Georgetown lineup, Whittington also often gets the chance to take advantage of his size on the offensive end, as many teams have to use smaller shooting guards to defend him. On the very first possession of the Indiana game, Whittington drove the ball against 6-footer Jordan Hulls, forcing immediate help defense and rotations from the Hoosiers. With opposing bigs unable to keep up and opposing guards too small to shut him down, Whittington is averaging a team-leading 12.7 points per game.

The biggest star on the roster is sophomore Otto Porter, Jr. (No. 22), who is primed for a breakout season. After starting nine games in his freshman campaign, Porter was named to the Big East preseason first-team this year. He has a great jumper that’s accurate even out to three-point range, and he is an impressive passer for a big man. With an offense predicated on backcuts, post-ups, and flares, that ability to quickly and accurately find a teammate is paramount. Porter is actually second on the team with 14 dimes, giving him an excellent assist rate of more than 22% early in the season.

The team leader in assists is 6’8″ Nate Lubick (No. 34), who has 16 so far this year. While Lubick has always been a great passer out of the high post, the Hoyas are looking for some more confidence this year when it comes to his shooting. The junior has filled that role so far, often popping it from the elbow when defenses sag off of him to take away the passing angles. Although those midrange jumpers aren’t falling consistently yet, his looks from the blocks have kept his shooting percentage at a nice 57.1% mark.

The tallest member of the starting five is 6’9″ sophomore Mikael Hopkins (No. 3). Hopkins is yet another versatile player for Coach Thompson, as he can knock it down all the way out to the perimeter. Although he’s 0-for-1 from three-point range this season, he did sink an early bucket against Indiana with his feet on the arc. That shooting threat coupled with above-average handles also give Hopkins the ability to take opposing bigs in face-up situations from the mid-range.

Even though he can shoot it and put the ball on the deck, the main role for Hopkins is that of the go-to post player. He has so many good post moves in his repertoire, but so far this season, he has been struggling to hit the great looks he earns. If and when the sophomore can start consistently making his shots from within a few feet of the rim, he is going to be a big-time scorer for the Hoyas.

With such a solid starting five, Georgetown really only relies on two key bench contributors, D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera (No. 4) and Jabril Trawick (No. 55). Smith-Rivera is an exciting freshman guard who is a very stout 6’3″ that can finish through contact inside. He’s also an outside shooting threat, as evidenced by his collegiate debut against Duquesne, where he knocked down all four of his three-point tries.

At 6’5″, Trawick allows Coach Thompson to still retain a size advantage against most standard lineups. Like his teammates, Trawick is a good shooter that can hit from anywhere, and his burst with the ball makes him a constant threat to get to the rack. In that ugly win over Tennessee, Trawick’s brief scoring surge in the second half was one of the lone bright spots for the Hoya offense.

Stephen Domingo (No. 31) also has made an appearance in every game so far, but only averages a few minutes per contest. The freshman arrived at Georgetown ahead of schedule after finishing his high school requirements early and skipping his senior year. He was a Top 100 recruit in the Class of 2013 before reclassifying, and impressed as a starter on the USA’s U17 team at the World Championships in Lithuania.

Keys to the game

1) Communicate on defense – No matter how the Longhorns choose to tackle this Georgetown offense, good communication and quick help will be key. The Hoya offense has looked stagnant against zone defenses this year, often just swinging the ball around the perimeter instead of getting it into the high post. Although the offense has come a long way since facing Florida’s zone in The Game That Never Was on the USS Bataan, but the Hoyas still look much better against the man.

The Longhorns certainly have the length available to match up with the Hoyas in a man-to-man look, but that would mean giving more minutes to the likes of Prince Ibeh and Connor Lammert, while taking their best shooter off the floor in Julien Lewis. While it’s highly unlikely that those two bigs could keep up with the likes of Porter and Whittington, it’s even more unlikely that Cameron Ridley could handle extended minutes playing against a player who can stretch the floor like Hopkins.

Rick Barnes has favored the zone so far this year, and it looks like that’s the best approach against this Hoya lineup. That means that Texas will have to communicate as they pass the cutters off and that the Horns will need to find somebody to box out in defensive rebounding situations.

2) Value the basketball – As previously mentioned, the Hoya defense does a very good job at shutting down opponents without the benefit of turnovers. Unfortunately, the Longhorns have helped out their opponents by turning it over very frequently, and oftentimes without much pressure from the defense. Texas has to avoid those types of careless mistakes tonight in a low-possession game against a defense that doesn’t need any help. The Horns must squeeze every point they can out of their possessions, and throwing bad passes to some New Yorker on the front row will quickly sink their chances of an upset.

3) Move the ball – The Texas offense has looked rejuvenated over the last few games, with good motion off the ball and great passing to find the open man. With Javan Felix not having to dribble the air out of the ball while teammates stand around, the Longhorn offense hasn’t wasted time or possessions, and shooting percentages have skyrocketed.

This Hoya defense is going to make the Longhorns knock down shots, so they will have to use that same approach to get open looks and make them count. When you also consider that the Longhorns have scored nearly 24% of their points from the line this season, while the Hoyas are one of the best in the country at not sending opponents to the charity stripe, it’s clear that Texas will have to score from the floor. Good ball movement can make that happen, while stagnant, clock-burning possessions will only result in challenged jumpers and desperation heaves.