TEAM W L LAST WEEK THIS WEEK Kansas 7 1 W vs. A&M, 64-54; L at ISU, 72-64 Wed vs. OU; Sat at Miz Missouri 7 2 L at OSU, 79-72; W vs. Tech, 63-50 W at UT, 67-66; Sat vs. KU Baylor 6 2 W at OU, 77-65; W vs. UT, 76-71 Wed at A&M; Sat at OSU Iowa State 5 3 L at UT, 62-55; W vs. KU, 72-64 Tue vs. KSU; Sat at OU Kansas State 4 4 W at Tech, 69-47; L vs. OU, 63-60 Tue at ISU; Sat vs. A&M Texas A&M 3 5 L at KU, 64-54; W vs. OSU, 76-61 Wed vs. BU; Sat at KSU Oklahoma State 3 5 W vs. Miz, 79-72; L at A&M, 76-61 Tue at Tech; Sat vs. BU Oklahoma 3 5 L vs. BU, 77-65; W at KSU, 63-60 Wed at KU; Sat vs. ISU Texas 3 6 W vs. ISU, 62-55; L at BU, 76-71 L vs. Miz, 67-66; Sat vs. Tech Texas Tech 0 8 L vs. KSU, 69-47; L at Miz, 63-50 Tue vs. OSU; Sat at UT

The big picture

Five days ago, it looked like the Kansas Jayhawks could be well on their way to yet another conference title. They had taken care of the Baylor Bears at home, knocking the upstarts from Waco out of the ranks of the undefeated. Five days later, the Bears suffered another setback at home against Missouri, putting them a full two games back of KU. The Tigers had already stumbled on the road to Kansas State early in the conference season, and hoped to keep the Jayhawks within reach heading into their home-and-home series. Instead, Oklahoma State gave the Jayhawks even more padding in the standings by pulling off a big upset over the Tigers at Gallagher-Iba Arena.

With a two-game cushion, the Jayhawks had slight room for error. Unfortunately, they used their mulligan right away, tripping up on the road against Iowa State on Saturday. Missouri looked shaky in wins over Texas Tech and Texas, but managed to stay just a half-game behind their rivals. With the Jayhawks facing Missouri, Baylor, and Kansas State on the road over the next two weeks, things are about to get very interesting.

In the middle of the standings, Kansas State suffered a home loss to the Sooners, giving OU a season sweep of the Wildcats. Coupled with Iowa State’s statement win over the Jayhawks, it looks like there could soon be a very clear division between the league’s top four teams and its bottom six. If the Cyclones can take care of business at home against the ‘Cats tonight, it will only widen the gap.

Mid-week games

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech; Tuesday, 7 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)

Meteorologist and tempo-free guru Ken Pomeroy gives the Red Raiders a 29% chance to finish the Big 12 slate winless. Of course, their best chances to avoid the conference skunking is when playing some of the league’s other bottom feeders at the friendly confines of United Spirit Arena.

While Oklahoma State finally played up to expectations in their upset of Missouri last Wednesday, the Pokes have just a 2-9 record in games away from Gallagher-Iba. If Billy Gillispie and the Red Raiders are going to avoid a dubious historical distinction, this is one of their best chances to do so. Shut down Le’Bryan Nash, and Oklahoma State becomes a very pedestrian team.

Kansas State at Iowa State; Tuesday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
Kansas State has been one of the toughest teams to figure out in the Big 12. The Wildcats looked great in a home win over Missouri and played tough in a narrow loss to Baylor. But in two games against the Oklahoma Sooners, Kansas State looked like a completely different team. Frank Martin had his overachieving bunch in the top half of the league standings, but their recent schneid has them gravitating towards the mess at the bottom of the standings.

Tonight, the game could very well be won on the perimeter. Iowa State brings in a lofty 37.6% team mark from behind the arc, including a pair of guards in Scott Christopherson and sixth man Tyrus McGee who are making over 41% of their three pointers. Kansas State, meanwhile, has the 15th-best perimeter defense in the country, led by the quick hands of Martavious Irving. While all eyes will be on constant double-double threat Royce White, this one could be decided by the smallest guys on the floor.

Baylor at Texas A&M; Wednesday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPN2)

It wasn’t long ago that the Battle on the Brazos was turning into quite the basketball rivalry. In 2008, the teams played an unforgettable five-overtime thriller that was only seen by those in the building and those dedicated enough to watch an online stream from A&M’s website. Less than two months later, the rematch was a heated affair that involved benches clearing and bottles being thrown on the court, further fueling the hatred between the two fanbases.

With Texas A&M predicted by league coaches to win the Big 12, and with Baylor sporting a lineup rich with NBA prospects, this year’s pair of games appeared to be potential classics on paper. Instead, the Aggies have failed to live up to expectations, dropping to the bottom of the league standings. A&M’s move to the SEC next season means that this will be the last time these two teams play in the regular season for quite some time, but the apathetic Aggie fanbase doesn’t seem to care. Yesterday, A&M slashed upper-level tickets to just $10 for the final installment of this rivalry. It’s a sad way to see this entertaining series come to an end.

Oklahoma at Kansas; Wednesday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPNU)
The Jayhawks can’t get caught looking ahead to the Border War on Saturday, as Oklahoma has proven to be a dangerous team under first-year coach Lon Kruger. The first time these two teams met, the Sooners held a 34-33 edge at the break in Norman. Travis Releford led a second-half Jayhawk surge, scoring a career-high 28 points to lead his team to the road win.

Winning at Allen Fieldhouse is a nearly impossible task, but even Texas A&M made the Jayhawks sweat last Monday when they brought an injured team to Lawrence and fought Kansas until the final minutes. The Sooners are fresh off a road win against Kansas State, so their confidence won’t be lacking in this one. While Oklahoma probably doesn’t have the horses to pull off the improbable upset, they can certainly be competitive with the Jayhawks.

If the sport were horseshoes or hand grenades, these Texas Longhorns would be All-Stars. Instead, Texas fans were treated to another verse of the same old song, as their team made another furious late-game comeback, only to come up short in a 67-66 loss.

Down 10 with just less than four minutes left, the Longhorns quickly erased the deficit, taking the lead on a leaner by J’Covan Brown with 56 seconds to go. Missouri’s Michael Dixon responded on the other end, tossing in a layup with 31 seconds left to put the Tigers back on top.

On the final possession, Texas spread the floor against a surprise zone defense, with the ball coming to Brown with just over 12 seconds left on the clock. The Tigers pushed out in a two-man trap, and Brown whipped a cross-court pass to Myck Kabongo, who had to leap to keep the ball in play. His baseline drive and jumper fell short, and Texas dropped to 0-7 in games decided by six points or less.

What looked good

The Texas defense in the first half was stifling. After being torched early in the teams’ first meeting in Columbia, the Longhorns were prepared to shut down the nation’s second-best offense. Texas defenders stayed in the shirts of the Missouri shooters on the perimeter, forcing them to pass it around.

Although there were a few possessions in which a Tiger slashed to the rack unchallenged, it was a vast improvement over the first meeting between the two teams. In fact, the Tigers were held to just 0.834 points per possession in the first half, well off their season average of 1.22.

The Longhorns capitalized on that tough defense by closing out possessions with rebounds. They dominated the glass on both ends of the floor, limiting Missouri to an offensive rebounding percentage of just 21.4%, while reclaiming 44.4% of their own misses. That workmanlike effort on the boards equated to a sizeable 22-6 advantage for Texas in second chance points.

Freshman Jonathan Holmes was the team leader in boards, snagging nine on the night. His effort on the glass led to easy putback points, and he was able to log seven points for the game. Unfortunately, he also led the team in turnovers with five, which was absolutely crippling in a game decided by one point.

Fellow freshman Jaylen Bond was also tenacious inside. He ripped down seven rebounds in just 14 minutes on the court and came up with two clutch buckets following offensive rebounds. Tempo-free stats underscore just how important Bond was during his short time on the court, as his personal offensive rebounding percentage was an incredible 23.8%, while his defensive was 40.8%.

The Longhorns also benefitted from aggressive play by Julien Lewis, who repeatedly attacked with drives from the corner. He started coming on strong in the second half of the Baylor game, and that confidence seemed to carry over into this one. Lewis led the way early for the Horns, seeming to be the only consistent scorer in a first half where the team had troubling putting the ball in the hoop. In the end, the freshman finished with 12 points on 44% shooting, a much more efficient contribution than his early performances in Big 12 play.

Big men Clint Chapman and Alexis Wangmene were a big part of Lewis’ success in this one, providing solid seals on the help defense when he drove to the rim. Chapman also showed off some agility with a few nice post moves, scoring six points in just 23 minutes on the court.

What needed work

Unfortunately, the fifth-year senior also had some tough moments on defense. In the first half, he let Ricardo Ratliffe establish very deep post position on a lob entry that had Coach Rick Barnes absolutely livid. He called an immediate timeout and angrily motioned Chapman to the bench with a jerk of the thumb. In the second half, Chapman was so intent on not letting Ratliffe get another easy bucket that he actually backed off a driving Tiger guard to prevent the dumpoff pass, instead giving up an uncontested layup.

Brown also played matador defense, although his struggles were much more consistent than Chapman’s. In the second half, he allowed Dixon to score in bunches. In the post-game press conference, Brown told the media, “I basically gave up half his points.” He couldn’t stay in front of Missouri’s speedy sixth man, letting Dixon spark a second-half scoring explosion for the Tigers.

Texas also did itself no favors with another rash of turnovers. In the first half, the Longhorns managed just 22 points, due in large part to a turnover rate close to 25%. For the game, Texas was able to push that mark down to just 19.9%, but those 13 miscues turned into 14 Tiger points. Perhaps the most frustrating was a second-half turnover by Myck Kabongo, who compounded his error by intentionally fouling Phil Pressey to give the Tigers two shots and the ball.

The Texas offense didn’t just bog down solely due to turnovers. The Longhorns often tried to establish Chapman or Wangmene in the post, but entry passes from the wing were simply not available. Typically, the big would then move out to the perimeter to set a ball screen, but the driving lanes were usually cut off by Missouri defenders.

Instead of reacting to the Tiger defense with quick ball movement, the Longhorns spread out the floor and played isolation basketball. With the team’s only buckets coming from one-on-one drives and offensive putbacks, Texas actually headed to the locker room without a single assist. They didn’t do much better in the second half, adding just five assists, one of them coming on a three-man fast-break.

For the third consecutive game, free throws were an albatross for the Longhorns. The team shot just 66.7% from the line, leaving eight freebies on the table. Texas did a great job of attacking and earning trips to the line, but did not take advantage of their edge in free throw attempts. You could even say the Longhorns left a ninth point at the line, as one of those misses came when Wangmene couldn’t hit the front end of a one-and-one.

In the last three games, the Longhorns have made just 63.2% of their free throws, a sharp decline from the season average of 73.2% that they carried into the first of those three games. For much of the season, the one thing that the Texas offense could count on was an ability to manufacture points at the line. Instead, trips to the charity stripe have become a scary proposition during the most important part of the season.

Finally, it must be noted that once again the Longhorns looked completely lost on the final possession of a close game. It’s one thing to lose a lot of close ones when the breaks just don’t go your way, but Texas has repeatedly failed to get good looks late in the game. The final possession against Kansas State resulted in a turnover and fast-break bucket, while Brown felt that his last-second three against Baylor wasn’t a bad look, despite Coach Barnes telling him the exact opposite.

Against the Tigers, the Longhorns had a play drawn up for both man and zone defenses. The Tigers came out in a zone look, and Texas spread the floor. Coach Barnes told the media that players weren’t making their cuts, which led to the breakdown. What he didn’t explain to reporters was why he didn’t use the team’s final timeout to regroup once he saw the players failing to make hard cuts. The Longhorns had more than 20 seconds left on the clock at the start of that final possession, but wasted thirteen of them before Brown’s risky cross-court pass set up Kabongo for his missed final shot.

The big picture

Texas is rapidly running out of opportunities to log a signature win, with just two games against Top 5 opponents left on the docket. During the final two weeks of the season, the Longhorns host Baylor and travel to Phog Allen Fieldhouse. Kansas State also travels to the Erwin Center on February 11th, but their recent slide has nearly sent them out of the RPI Top 50.

Texas has almost no margin for error at this point, essentially needing to win every game outside of the Baylor and Kansas match-ups. The odds aren’t in their favor, as the Longhorns still have road trips left to A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. Despite all three programs having down years, those teams still defend their home court well, and a Texas road win is far from a guarantee.

If the Longhorns pulled off the improbable run and beat everyone left on the schedule not named Kansas or Baylor, it would put them at 20-9 overall. Even though losses to the Jayhawks and Bears would give them a respectable 20-11 record in this hypothetical, the Longhorns would still be left with just two or three wins against the RPI Top 50, with Temple being the team’s best win on the year.

The odds are long for Texas at this point, but with nine games left on the season, you can’t write Texas off just yet. If they can learn from all of these close losses and regroup in time to attack the favorable back half of their league slate, perhaps the Longhorns can finally put together a run.

Up next: vs. Texas Tech (7-13 overall, 0-8 Big 12); Saturday, 6 P.M. CT

In a season where the Texas Longhorns are at risk of losing their 13-year streak of NCAA tournament appearances, the young team has had more than its fair share of chances to notch marquee wins. On the road against Kansas State and Baylor, the Horns had the ball on the final possession with a chance to tie the game. Both times, Texas failed to come up with the clutch basket. At home against Kansas, the Longhorns led by four with 3:24 to play, but didn’t score another field goal en route to a crushing loss.

All of this late-game futility adds up to an 0-6 record in games decided by two possessions or less, a stat that will haunt Longhorn fans if their team ends up on the wrong side of the bubble. Texas is now just 1-5 in games against the RPI Top 50, an important metric used by the NCAA Selection Committee. Thanks to Iowa State’s upset win over Kansas, the Longhorns can add one more Top 50 win if the Cyclones can climb at least two spots in today’s RPI update.

Without knowing who Texas will face in the Big 12 Tournament, it appears that the Horns have four more opportunities against RPI Top 50 squads, with three of them coming at home. The next chance for a résumé-building win comes tonight, in the form of the Missouri Tigers. It may seem early to start calling games “must-wins,” but the Longhorns are quickly running out of time to make their case. Texas needs to get over the hump and start turning these close losses into big-time wins.

Meet the Tigers

For an in-depth look at the Missouri players, stats, and tendencies, check out the preview from the first game between these two teams.

The first meeting

Texas opened in a zone defense against the Tigers, and Missouri quickly made the Horns pay with an incredible 73% mark from behind the arc in the first 20 minutes. Texas fell behind by as much as 16 points in the first half, compounding the poor perimeter defense with a string of miscues on offense. The Longhorns ended 22% of their possessions with a turnover, including back-to-back first-half possessions that ended on a shot clock violation and a five-count.

Even with the turnovers, Texas posted one of its most efficient offensive performances in conference play. The Longhorns scored 1.135 points per possession, the second-best mark achieved against the Tigers all year. J’Covan Brown was a huge part of the success, scoring 34 points on 62.5% shooting from the field, including an 85.7% mark from long range. Myck Kabongo also came up big for the Horns, aggressively attacking the lane as he logged his first collegiate double-double.

For the Tigers, Flip Pressey was the catalyst. He scored seven points in a 50-second stretch just after the Longhorns had cut the lead to five in the second half, effectively icing the win for his team. Just a 26% three-point shooter on the season, he drilled 3-of-7 against the Horns and consistently sliced up the Longhorn defense, scoring 18 to go with 10 assists. Ricardo Ratliffe was the main benefactor of the great Missouri guard penetration, scoring 21 points on a 10-of-12 shooting day.

Since then…

Ratliffe hasn’t slowed down since the win over Texas, earning Big 12 Conference Player of the Week honors for dominating performances against Texas A&M and Baylor. The big man scored 17 points and grabbed boards against the Aggies, then followed it up with a career-high 27 points in the road win over the Bears.

On Wednesday night, the Tigers suffered their second conference loss in a game where the importance of Ratliffe’s efficiency in the paint was underscored. Although he scored 25 points in the loss, his string of superhuman shooting percentages came to an end with a 10-of-17 line against Oklahoma State. It was the first time since the season opener that Ratliffe had missed more than three shots in a game.

The Tigers followed up the loss with a surprisingly close game against Texas Tech at home. The Red Raiders actually held the Tigers to just 1.03 points per possession, the team’s worst offensive efficiency number in their 19 wins. Tech limited Ratliffe to an eight-point, four-rebound afternoon, forcing the Missouri guards to carry the team. Kim English responded and knocked down 4-of-6 from behind the arc, but the rest of the Tigers were just 2-for-15 from long range. Missouri still held on for a 13-point win over the Red Raiders, but looked rather vulnerable heading into an important week where they travel to Texas and host Kansas.

Keys to the game

1) Stop dribble penetration – The four-guard look from Missouri was practically impossible for the Longhorns to stop when the teams met in Columbia earlier this month. As a result, the scrambling Texas defense was consistently out of position in the paint, leading to easy hoops for the guards and tons of points for Ratliffe. The Longhorns must stop the ball tonight and force the Tigers to beat them with contested jumpers, or else they will find themselves in another shootout with the nation’s second-most efficient offense.

2) Keep the backcourt humming – Both Brown and Kabongo had solid outings against Missouri the first time around, and both performed very well at Baylor on Saturday afternoon. If the pair of Longhorn guards can continue that high level of play against the Tigers tonight, the team should be able to find the same kind of offensive success that they did at Mizzou Arena. Throw in a little bit of defense, and that couldbe enough for a win this time around.

3) Chapman must avoid the whistles – In addition to the dribble penetration, the foul trouble that kept Clint Chapman on the bench gave Ratliffe and Steve Moore a hall pass in the lane. Chapman was again hounded by personals in the loss to Baylor on Saturday, and you can be sure that the Tigers will attack him tonight. The big man will have to be smart with his fouls and maximize his minutes if the Longhorns want to earn the upset.

4) Win the battle on the glass – Texas actually did a good job keeping Missouri off of the offensive glass during the first meeting, holding the Tigers to an offensive rebounding mark below 29%. Unfortunately, there weren’t many missed shots from Mizzou, so that strong performance on the boards didn’t amount to much. If the Longhorns can actually force some misses in this one, another solid night on the glass will make things much tougher for the Tigers this time around. The Horns should also be able to capitalize on the offensive end, as they reclaimed 47.1% of their misses in the first game and turned those extra chances into 17 points.

It was another nail-biter for the Longhorns in Waco on Saturday, but the familiar script remained the same. Texas was on the losing end of another game decided by six points or less, coming up just short of a monumental road upset of Baylor. Despite being tied with 2:53 to play and having a shot to tie it again in the final seconds, the Longhorns saw their record in games decided by two possessions or less fall to 0-6 on the season.

Texas was carried by the play of J’Covan Brown, who scored 32 points on 50% shooting from the field, a sharp improvement from the 25.7% mark he posted in the team’s last three games. With Clint Chapman and Myck Kabongo playing limited minutes thanks to foul trouble, the Horns had to have a big game from Brown to even stay in it.

Brown’s one-man show was one-upped by Baylor’s Perry Jones III, who logged a double-double with 22 points and 14 boards. He scored from seemingly everywhere on the court, knocking down mid-range jumpers, drilling turnaround looks, and posting up against the foul-plagued Texas frontcourt. Freshman Quincy Miller, a superstar whose brilliance is oftentimes eclipsed by PJ3, added another 18 points to Baylor’s winning effort.

What looked good

It was imperative that Brown finally break out of his funk and have an efficient game, but it didn’t look like that would be the case in the first half. He scored just four points in the game’s first 15 minutes, with those coming off of a goaltended layup and a pair of free throws. Fortunately, the junior was consistently setting up his teammates to score, logging three assists over that same stretch.

Coming out of the locker room, Brown played like a man possessed. He dropped 20 of his 32 points in the second half, even sinking off-balance looks that likely had the coaching staff sweating. Brown also finally found his stroke from long range, knocking down 4-of-7 from behind the arc after going 0-for-3 in the first half.

In addition to Brown’s second-half surge, the Texas defense played a big role in keeping Baylor at arm’s reach when the Bears tried to pull away. The Longhorns forced 18 Baylor turnovers for a TO rate of 26.3%, which led to 20 Longhorn points. Julien Lewis was the biggest catalyst, logging four steals for Texas.

Jonathan Holmes also had a promising start, but struggled on the defensive end and piled up the fouls. He knocked down a triple and a short jumper just outside the lane in the first few minutes of the game, but managed only one other basket the rest of the way and missed both of his free throw attempts.

What needed work

Those missed free throws were an epidemic for the Longhorns on Saturday afternoon. For a team that had made 92.1% of their free throws in games against Kansas State and Kansas, the timing could not have been worse for a tragic downswing. Texas made only 16 of their 26 attempts against Baylor (61.5%), while the Bears made just under 80% of their attempts. In a game decided by just five points, leaving that many freebies at the line was an absolute killer.

In addition to Holmes’ donut at the line, the Longhorns also had crippling misses from Alexis Wangmene, who went 0-for-2, and Kabongo, who missed half of his eight attempts. Obviously, Texas won’t be able to consistently hit at that incredible 92% clip they reached against the two Kansas schools, but the 61.4% mark over the last two games is very troubling as the team heads down the homestretch of the regular season.

Texas was also scuttled by a very poor performance on the defensive glass. Although Baylor has one of the longest, most athletic frontcourts in the country, the Longhorns hurt themselves with a ton of whistles inside that led to a rotating cast in their own frontcourt. The Bears reclaimed more than 45% of their missed shots, which was the 4th-best mark the team has posted in its 21 games and was well above their season average of 37.3%.

One of those players hampered by foul trouble was Chapman, whose absence once again proved how crucial he is to the team’s success. As it was when Chapman was saddled with fouls in the road loss to Missouri, the Longhorns were abused inside for buckets and boards, giving up 22 points and being outrebounded by a count of 40-28.

While any scouting report worth its salt is going to tell teams to attack Chapman and get him on the bench, the Longhorns will have to find a way to protect their big man. That could mean switching to a zone defense against teams that aren’t automatic from long range, although the Big 12 is full of great three-point shooters. Five of the other nine teams in the league have made more than 36% of their threes so far this season, with Baylor actually cracking the Top 10 nationally with a 40.8% mark. In addition, a zone defense would only exacerbate the problems Texas has had on the defensive glass.

The optimal solution would be for Wangmene and Jaylen Bond to step up when Chapman is unavailable, but so far that outcome seems unlikely. Bond is still a fierce rebounder, and did some good work on the glass against Baylor. Unfortunately, he’s undersized for his position, and it’s caused him to really struggle on defense against bigger teams. Wangmene has also done good work on the boards, but his defense is hit-or-miss and he has problems handling the nice interior passes from Brown and Kabongo on the offensive end.

Coming into Texas’ current six-game stretch against the top teams in the Big 12, most fans had an understandably bleak outlook on the team’s future. The fact that the Longhorns were competitive in each of the first five games offers a ray of hope for the upcoming home games against the heavy hitters of the Big 12. Texas let one slip away against Kansas at the Erwin Center last weekend, but still has the opportunity to take down Missouri, Kansas State, and Baylor at home in coming weeks. If the Longhorns want to keep their 13-year NCAA tournament appearance streak alive, that’s exactly what they will have to do.

Up next: vs. #2/2 Missouri (19-2 overall, 6-2 Big 12); Monday, 8 P.M. CT

The Texas Longhorns took care of business on Tuesday night, earning a win they had to have over Iowa State. The Horns have spent most of the season positioned squarely on the proverbial NCAA tournament bubble, but another loss against a marginal RPI Top 50 team like the Cyclones would surely have darkened the postseason outlook for the Horns.

Today’s game against a deep, athletic Baylor team ranked in the Top 10 is certainly not a must-win. Even the most optimistic of Longhorn fans likely realizes just how difficult it will be for Texas to pull off a monumental road upset in Waco this afternoon. But while no one is expecting the Horns to march into the Ferrell Center and shock the nation, an improbable victory would provide a massive boost to Texas’ NCAA tournament chances.

By the numbers

The Bears roared out to a 17-0 record this season, the best start in school history. Baylor had close calls during that historic stretch, needing a clutch three and overtime to beat West Virginia in Las Vegas, while winning by just a bucket at Kansas State and against Mississippi State in Dallas. The Bears also won by three against BYU at the Marriott Center, one of the toughest venues in all of college basketball. With 11 games left until the conference tournament even begins, this Baylor team is already well-prepared for high-pressure situations.

Baylor has one of the ten most efficient offenses in college hoops, scoring 1.168 points per possession. Even against the tougher opposition in Big 12 play, the Bears have only seen that number dip to 1.149, the second-best mark in the league. Baylor’s success hinges on an incredibly high effective field goal percentage of 55.6%, a number boosted by the team’s deadly accuracy from long range. Six of the eight members of Baylor’s core rotation have made at least a third of their threes in league play, and the team has knocked down 41% of their long-range looks this season.

With a big, athletic frontline, the Bears also extend possessions when they happen to miss shots. The team’s 37% mark for offensive rebounding ranks in the Top 40 nationally, and that percentage has actually ticked up slightly in league games. On defense, that length and athleticism also leads to a lot of blocked shots, and the team’s 15.1% swat percentage is ranked 14th in the nation.

Where that height and athletic ability fails the Bears is on the defensive glass. Baylor is actually one of the 100 worst teams in Division I when it comes to securing defensive boards, as the team allows opponents to reclaim 34.3% of their misses. Under Scott Drew, the Bear defense has been synonymous with the 2-3 zone, although this year they have mixed in much more man and even a 1-3-1 look. With the team not used to having box out assignments in the zone, they have had difficulties remembering to put a body on opposing rebounders when playing man. For a Texas team that is actually very good at grabbing offensive boards, this could be huge.

Meet the Bears

While the Baylor lineup is full of highly-touted recruits and potential NBA lottery picks, the biggest impact this season has come from a junior college transfer. A player of the year at the JUCO level, Pierre Jackson (No. 55) has earned a starting spot in the team’s last two games, and it’s easy to see why. The Baylor offense is a completely different animal with Jackson on the floor, as he dices up defenses with his dribble penetration and always seems to put his teammates in the perfect position to score.

In conference play, Jackson is nearly averaging an unconventional double-double, posting 14 points and nine assists each night. In addition to being able to put the ball on the floor and thread the needle with ridiculous passes, the former Southern Idaho standout is also practically automatic from long range. In Big 12 games, Jackson has drilled 53.3% of his looks from behind the arc.

Joining Jackson in the backcourt is another guy who cans it from deep, Canadian product Brady Heslip (No 5). A transfer from Boston College, Heslip has taken 82% of his shots from downtown this season. With a 47% success rate from three-point range, it’s hard to fault the guy. Although Heslip doesn’t shoot it often from inside the arc, he has shown a deft touch when defenses run him off the perimeter. He can knock down the soft floater, and has even gone old-school with a few banked pull-up Js.

The name that all fans are likely familiar with is sophomore star Perry Jones III (No. 1). Known as PJ3, the 6’11” forward is an all-around stud who has the NBA scouts drooling. He’s played every position in his career, so he’s the deadly breed of big man with great handles who can also knock down jumpers all over the floor.

The main knock on PJ3’s game is that he disappears in the clutch, deferring to teammates when he should be demanding the rock. Critics made this claim following the team’s losses to Kansas and Missouri, but they also failed to point out that he injured his ankle during the game against the Jayhawks. Back to full strength on Tuesday night, PJ3 posted a 21-point, 12-rebound line against the upset-minded Sooners.

Alongside PJ3 in the Baylor frontcourt is senior big man Quincy Acy (No. 4), a high-energy guy who knows how to rock the rim. In his career, Acy has 219 dunks, which account for 51% of his made field goals. He’s often the recipient of great dump-offs from Jackson, but will also fiercely throw down an offensive rebound when the opportunity presents itself. The Bears also run a simple lob play on baseline inbounds situations to get Acy dunks, something they have been doing all four years he’s been on campus. He’s also a force inside on defense, swatting more than two shots per game for a block percentage of 8.4%, a mark that is just outside the Top 50 nationally.

Freshman forward Quincy Miller (No. 30) rounds out the starting five for Baylor, and he provides yet another all-around scoring threat. On a team without PJ3, Miller would likely be the go-to guy, but at Baylor he’s an incredibly-talented second option. He had major knee surgery during his senior year of high school, so his first step still isn’t quite as explosive as it once was, but he can still score in bunches with an array of moves and a jump shot that’s good past the arc. In conference play, Miller is tops on the team with 15.3 points per game.

Coming off the bench is point guard A.J. Walton (No. 22), who lost the starting job to Jackson. Known for his outstanding perimeter defense, Walton still averages around 20 minutes per game and will likely be tasked with shutting down J’Covan Brown when he’s on the floor. Walton has a steal percentage of 4.6%, which may not sound like much, but is actually the 25th-best individual mark in the nation.

Senior forward Anthony Jones (No. 41) is another displaced starter, but he is playing his role perfectly on this deep team. He provides a lot of length for the back line of that Baylor zone, but also is a long-range threat that loves to camp out in the corner for kickouts on the offensive end. Jones has made roughly 31% of his threes so far on the season, and is also one of three Bears to have an individual offensive rebounding mark north of 10%.

Sophomore guard Gary Franklin (No. 0) is a transfer from Cal who became eligible at midseason. He’s only playing about 11 minutes per game in conference, and is essentially just a long-range catch-and-shoot threat. Sixteen of his 17 field goal attempts in Big 12 games have come from behind the arc, and he’s hitting at a 37.5% clip.

Cory Jefferson (No. 34) rounds out the core rotation, playing about nine minutes per game against Big 12 opponents. He’s a long and lean 6’9″ forward who will undoubtedly lead the team in blocked shots before he graduates. Against UT-Arlington, he blocked seven shots in 25 minutes on the court. In 10 of the team’s first 17 games, Jefferson swatted at least two shots, but he has seen very little action over the last three contests.

Keys to the game

1) Make second chances count – One of Baylor’s biggest weaknesses is on the defensive glass, which matches up perfectly with the Texas strength of offensive rebounding. The Longhorns must turn those second chances into points if they want to have any chance for an upset this afternoon. It will be even better if Texas can quickly turn those offensive boards into easy putbacks, as the Horns have really struggled in the half-court lately.

2) Get efficient contributions from Brown – A big reason for those half-court struggles has been the ball-dominating play of junior J’Covan Brown. In the team’s last three games, Brown is 18-of-70 from the floor (25.7%), having taken 40% of the team’s shots. When you consider that the Longhorns won one of those games and were in it until the final seconds against both Kansas and Kansas State, one can only wonder how Texas would have fared if Brown involved his teammates a little more.

In addition to eating up possessions with a ton of missed shots, Brown’s one-man show also led to his teammates doing very little when he was off the ball. Most Longhorns stood around on offense, failing to make cuts or set screens, instead waiting for the junior guard to come back to the ball and shoot. If Texas wants to win this tough road test, they will have to get an efficient game from Brown that involves his teammates.

3) Rattle Jackson – When Pierre Jackson is on his game, Baylor is tough to stop. The quick, tiny guard can push the issue in transition, break down the defense in the halfcourt, and hit dagger threes with little separation from his man. That being said, he’s also shown a tendency to make mistakes, and to let those mistakes snowball.

Jackson has picked up a fair number of charges on the season, so quality help defense can pin a few offensive fouls on him. In addition, his turnover rate of more than 30% is incredibly high for a point guard, oftentimes the result of him trying to do too much. The Longhorns don’t necessarily need to apply a ton of pressure on Jackson, but do need to play sound, team defense so they can capitalize when he tries to force things.