Over the final thirteen games of the conference season, the Baylor Bears mustered just three wins while steadily dropping to the bottom of the league standings. But in only three days of the Big 12 Championship in Oklahoma City, those same Bears have reeled off just as many wins and are now a step away from doing the unthinkable — claiming four victories in four days to steal the league’s automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

When Coach Scott Drew led last year’s team to the Big Dance, it was the first appearance for the Baptists from the Brazos in 20 years. After an offseason in which the Bears added highly-touted freshmen Quincy Acy and Anthony Jones, the preseason polls had tabbed them as third-best in the conference. But after that brutal 13-game stretch which began in late January, this Baylor team was being mentioned in “biggest disappointment” discussions with the likes of Georgetown and Notre Dame. It wasn’t just the NCAA tournament that was off the radar for this scuttling team. There were doubts as to if they could even to slip into the NIT.

And that’s the beauty of March. With three days of inspired basketball and a storyline that seems like something out of a Disney movie, the embattled Bears are on the brink of something spectacular. But standing in their way are the Missouri Tigers, the other feel-good story of the Big 12 this season. After a year filled with off-court distractions, player dismissals and a disappointing record, they were again picked in the bottom half of the league during preseason polling. But the Tigers defied all odds, upset bitter rival Kansas at home in the Border War, finished a surprising third in the conference, and even ascended to the Top 10 in national polls.

Today’s game will be an interesting case study in which team can impose its will upon the other. Both squads are fantastic ball handlers and turn it over less than 18% of the time, putting them both in the top sixty nationally. But the Tigers are one of the best squads around when it comes to pressuring the basketball and forcing mistakes. Will Mike Anderson‘s team be able to shake up the Bears and gobble up a solid chunk of points off of turnovers? Or will this be a well-controlled game whose winner is the one that plays the smartest, most efficient game?

One huge factor in the outcome could be the fatigue level of the Bears, who have played one more game than the Tigers this week. With Missouri loving to play an up-tempo style, there is a good chance that the Baylor players could get hit with dead legs late in the game. Kevin Rogers, who has averaged 14.7 points per game in the tournament, has also played nearly 37 minutes per game. Curtis Jerrells, the other senior leader in Baylor’s starting five, has played 34 minutes per game over the last three days. While the Missouri starters ate up a lot of minutes last night, the Tigers are a very well-conditioned team that can easily run 10 deep on the bench. If it’s a close game in the final minutes, this could be the deciding factor.

One way for Baylor to mitigate that disadvantage would be to jump out to a big early lead and get the crowd behind the underdogs. With the way Missouri has played the last two nights, that is a distinct possibility. The Tigers looked to be sleepwalking through their quarterfinal against Texas Tech before pulling away in the second half, and they shot just 25.8% in the first twenty minutes against Oklahoma State. Missouri is a team that will score in bunches, to if the Bears can take advantage of another slow start, it will give them the added cushion they’ll need to withstand those Tiger streaks.

Following Baylor’s historic win over Texas in the first semifinal of the day, fans were looking forward to another great game in the nightcap, a re-match that was expected to be a forty-minute offensive showcase. When Oklahoma State and Missouri first met at Gallagher-Iba Arena earlier this season, the Cowboys rallied back from nearly 20 points down but fell just short in an exhausting 97-95 shootout. Although it had been nearly two months, the game was still fresh on the minds of boosters from both universities. Unfortunately, things didn’t go exactly as scripted.

[3] Missouri 67, [7] Oklahoma State 59

The Cowboys came into this one shooting nearly 40% from long range on the year, putting them in the top 25 nationally for three-point shooting. The Tigers, meanwhile, boasted the country’s 15th-most efficient offense, and the 17th-fastest tempo of basketball. All signs pointed to another game testing the century mark, bound to keep the capacity Ford Center crowd on its feet. That was before they put lids on the rims.

Oklahoma State didn’t hit a three-pointer for the first 34 minutes of the game, while Missouri mustered only 21 points in the first half. The two teams were still sprinting up and down the court, forcing turnovers and creating havoc. But the two teams combined to shoot only 28% in the first twenty minutes, causing one Tiger fan behind us to wrack his brain trying to remember the last time his team had such a futile start.

The big moment of the night came after halftime, but it had an unfortunate beginning late in the first session. Byron Eaton injured his ankle on a fast break and laid on the court for what seemed like minutes. After being helped off the court by two teammates, he spent the rest of the half with his face buried in a towel as team medical staff tended to his foot. When the Cowboys returned to the court in the second half, their senior leader was nowhere to be found, and the orange-filled Ford Center was abnormally quiet. But moments later, Eaton sprinted out of the tunnel to a roaring ovation and joined his team for the shootaround.

While Eaton was largely ineffective the rest of the game and the upset bid ultimately fell short, his effort was gutsy. Most pundits already had the Cowboys in the NCAA field, so it may have been more prudent to play it safe and shut him down for the rest of the game. But Eaton, always a fierce competitor, wanted to go back out and help his team, and the lift he provided by returning was immeasurable.

For Missouri, the game was strange not only because of their early offensive struggles, but also because of the fact that Coach Mike Anderson stuck with a smaller core of players for a bulk of the minutes. While ten different Tigers average more than 12 minutes a game, the starters ate a huge chunk of the minutes in this one. Every one of the five starters played at least 25 minutes, while only Marcus Denmon cracked the 12-minute plateau from the bench. While it’s true the Tigers have played one less game than Baylor as the teams head into tonight’s championship, it will be interesting to see if there is enough fatigue from this up-tempo semifinal to affect Anderson’s rotation.

When the final buzzer sounded following Baylor’s third-straight win over a higher-seeded team in the Big 12 Championship, thoughts weren’t on the end of the Bears’ 24-game losing streak to Texas. “We came in here with a mindset, with a task,” Curtis Jerrells said. “Today was step three.” With their 76-70 win over Texas, the Bears have finished step three and have only one remaining — a win over 3rd-seeded Missouri on Saturday to reach the NCAA tournament.

Just a day after hitting six three-pointers in the huge upset victory over Kansas, LaceDarius Dunn was limited to just one long-range bomb in this one. But he timed it well, sinking the three with just over a minute left on the clock to give Baylor a 67-65 lead it would never relinquish. The sophomore finished with 16 points, including five out of six free throws as Texas desperately fouled over the final 24 seconds.

Once again, the big man for Baylor was senior Kevin Rogers. He abused the Longhorns for 20 points by getting to the rim, kissing jumpers off the glass, and even knocking down fifteen-footers without batting an eye. But most importantly, Rogers combined with Josh Lomers and Mamadou Diene to limit Texas to just 26 points in the paint, just over half its average for the tournament.

One reason the Longhorns couldn’t get anything going down low was the defense that trio played against Dexter Pittman. The big center had only seven points in this game, and was completely ineffective over the final six minutes after he injured his leg in a loose ball scrum. Pittman missed all four of his free throws after that point and grabbed just two rebounds.

His injury may have also played a factor on the crucial rebound where he failed to box out Jerrells after Dunn missed a free throw with 24 seconds left and Baylor leading by only three. With the offensive board secured, the Bears hit their next two free throws and kept the game out of reach for good.

For Texas, the biggest problem once again was an inability to close out halves. All season long, the Horns have had issues letting teams put together runs in the final few minutes of a half, and this game was no exception. Over the final 2:13 of the first half, Texas allowed Baylor to put together an 8-2 run, and the Longhorns gave up six straight points in the next-to-last minute of the game which allowed the Bears to seize the lead for good. Whether it is a lack of focus or a result of tired legs, the simple fact of the matter is that Texas has struggled with this issue all season long, and the Horns will have to address it if they plan to make any noise in the NCAAs.

One reassuring trend for this tournament was the play of A.J. Abrams, who was much more efficient with his shot selection. The senior guard was 14-of-27 over the three-game stretch, including a 40% success rate from behind the arc. If Abrams is still shooting close to 50% once the elimination games start next weekend, Texas has much better odds for success. But if he reverts to the early-season form in which he continued to force up bad looks when he was struggling, the Longhorns could be done after just one game.

For the Baylor Bears, the fourth step of their task awaits them this evening. We’ll be back with a wrap of the Oklahoma State/Missouri game and a quick look at tonight’s championship match-up.

Under Rick Barnes, the Texas Longhorns have never lost to the Baylor Bears, boasting a string of 24 consecutive victories spanning 11 seasons. To put it in perspective, the last time the folks from Waco enjoyed a win over the Longhorns, freshman forward Quincy Acy was in the second grade, Bill Clinton was in office, and Tom Penders still roamed the Erwin Center sidelines.

Sure, that streak includes two wins over Baylor earlier this season, too. And yeah, the Longhorns have made it to the Big 12 Championship’s final game in each of the last three seasons. But for Texas fans who are adding this all up to mean that an easy win awaits, we’d like to suggest exercising a little restraint when formulating those sugarplum dreams.

This Baylor team is essentially the same one that made the NCAA tournament last year, and as a result was selected as the third-best team in the conference’s preseason poll. They have neutral site wins over Providence and Arizona State, and a true road win against the Washington State Cougars. And of course, we can’t fail to mention that this evening’s game will likely feel more like a home contest, as everyone in the arena who isn’t wearing burnt orange will certainly be rooting for the underdogs.

Considering this is the third time these teams have met this season, there’s not much left to preview. If you want an in-depth look at the players that Coach Scott Drew is going to send out there, you’ll want to read the previous game preview for all the pre-game info you’ll need.

In the tournament

The Bears have looked very good over the last two days, as it seems they finally are playing with some energy and heart. Now just two wins away from an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, you can be sure that Baylor will be leaving it all out on the floor tonight.

Kevin Rogers has been huge for the Bears in their first two games, a pair of wins over Nebraska and Kansas. Against the Cornhuskers, Rogers ripped down 20 rebounds to go with 10 points, and followed it up with a 14 point, 5 board night against the Jayhawks. Texas has shown that it is committed to scoring in the paint, and in fact dropped 48 points inside the last time these two teams met. Rogers will have to step it up down low for Baylor tonight.

While the big forward has been clutch for the Bears so far, the real scene-stealer has been sophomore LaceDarius Dunn. His six three-pointers led the way in yesterday’s upset of Kansas, and he is clearly warming up to his new role in the starting five. In the first two games of the Big 12 Championship, Dunn has scored 42 total points and added five assists. If Texas doesn’t play solid perimeter defense against this sharpshooter, the Bears will likely be just one win away from the Big Dance.

Keys to the game

Limit the turnovers – As it was in the last match-up, ball control is a huge key for the Longhorns tonight. Baylor simply does not cough it up, and Texas is coming off of a game in which they turned it over 22 times. If the Bears enjoy a hefty turnover differential tonight, they will surely be feasting on a buffet of fast break points.

Stay out of foul trouble – Thanks to Damion James charging every time he touched the ball against Kansas State, Dexter Pittman was forced to play 34 minutes, more than twice his season average. With Pittman now having 62 minutes on his tournament odometer, and Gary Johnson still recovering from ankle problems, Texas cannot afford to have their post players pick up stupid fouls. The Baylor guards love to drive the basketball, so the Longhorn frontcourt has to play solid, vertical defense.

Push the tempo – Against a team that can score points in bunches, this might seem like a bad idea. But the Longhorns have more talent further down the bench than Baylor does, and the five Bear starters combined for 169 minutes against Kansas. The strength of Baylor’s offense is clearly in the frontcourt, so if Texas can further wear out Dunn, Curtis Jerrells, and Tweety Carter, those tired legs are a lot less likely to sink threes late in the game.

If you told most people that a team would post a minus-11 turnover differential, give up 20 offensive rebounds, and still win the game, you’d likely get laughed at. But somehow that is exactly what the Texas Longhorns found a way to do in an ugly, gutsy win over the Kansas State Wildcats in the Big 12 Championship quarterfinals.

It’s often said at this time of the season that any win is a good win. That’s very true, although if Texas fans expect their team to play their way past the 7- or 8-seed line, a convincing win would have certainly helped things. Texas is 6-6 against teams currently in the RPI Top 50, and would have to get past Baylor — ranked 59th in this morning’s RPI approximations — to earn a shot at another Top 20 team in Oklahoma State or Missouri. A narrow win over a bubble team like K-State just three days before Selection Sunday could be something that sits in the back of the committee’s mind when they are making their final adjustments to the S-curve.

Of course, the most important aspect of this game was the fact that Texas managed to pull out the win when playing well below their capabilities. Those 20 offensive rebounds for the Wildcats were equal to 37% of the chances that KSU had on the offensive glass. While that might not sound like a large number, it gains importance once you realize that Pitt leads the nation in that statistical category by grabbing 42% of their chances per game. The fact that the Longhorns gave the Wildcats that many extra possessions and still won is a clear indicator of the high level of defense the team was playing yesterday.

Statistically, that defense was stifling. They allowed the Wildcats an effective field goal percentage — a measure of shooting percentage that gives added weight to the three-pointer — of only 33.9% That was the fourth-best outing from the Texas D all season, with the only better games coming against sub-par opponents Appalachian State, Stetson, and St. Joseph’s. If Texas can play that kind of defense the rest of the season, they won’t need to score many points in order to advance.

The leader for Texas once again was big man Dexter Pittman, who powered his way to 19 points and 20 rebounds. Although a bunch of Dex’s boards came off of his own misses of point blank shots, having him be a human vacuum underneath the goal ensures that Texas will get lots of second- and third-chance opportunities. He played a surprising 34 minutes in this game, which came just 24 hours after he played 28 minutes against Colorado. For a large man who averaged less than 15 minutes a game the rest of the season, this weekend will be a true test of how far he has progressed with his endurance.

The bench play for the Longhorns was also incredibly encouraging. With point guard Dogus Balbay struggling for a second straight game, Coach Rick Barnes looked to Varez Ward for some quality minutes in the backcourt. Instead of just hanging on to the ball, Ward attacked the basket for three buckets, and was a perfect 3-of-3 from the line. For a Texas team that has been searching for an answer to its backcourt woes all season long, this sudden flash of brilliance from Ward is a reassuring thing heading into the Big Dance.

Clint Chapman also gave some solid minutes from the bench, hustling for some early buckets on tip ins and awkward moves near the rim. While he was only on the floor for eight minutes, he managed nine points and sunk three free throws on only five attempts. That last stat is notable only because Chapman has been absolutely abysmal all season long at the charity stripe, having made just three other free throws all season for a pitiful 15.7% success rate at the line. I still wouldn’t want to see him at the line in crunch time (or really any time), but it’s nice to see him getting some kind treatment from the iron for once.

The win sets up a semifinal with the Baylor Bears, a team that is suddenly playing inspired basketball and would want nothing more than to end their seemingly interminable string of futility against the Longhorns. A game preview for that one will be headed your way within the hour.