Following their Monday night victory over the Baylor Bears, the Texas Longhorns can now breathe a little easier about their NCAA tournament hopes. They cracked the magical 20-win mark, have RPI and SOS numbers in the top 40, and have logged four wins against teams in the Top 30 of the RPI. But even with their ticket to the Big Dance practically punched, the Longhorns have a lot to play for this Saturday afternoon at Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence.

Texas sits in a tie with Oklahoma State for fourth in the Big 12, which comes with the added benefit of a first-round bye in next week’s conference tournament in Oklahoma City. While the Longhorns hold a tiebreaker over the Cowboys, they do not hold the tiebreaker over Kansas State, a team which is only one game back in the standings and hosts the lowly Colorado Buffaloes this afternoon. With the Wildcats likely winning and Oklahoma State having to travel to Norman to face Oklahoma, the Longhorns must win today to seal that fourth first-round bye.

For Kansas, today is a chance to win the Big 12 title outright. Even if they lose and split the league title, the Jayhawks will earn the 1-seed in next week’s conference tourney. But for a program with such a proud and storied history, anything less than an outright title will feel tainted. So while the Longhorns have their own reasons for wanting an upset this afternoon, the role of spoiler is also calling their name.

Unfortunately, winning in Lawrence has been an unsolvable mystery for the Longhorns, who have been unsuccessful in their eight tries dating back to 1941. Allen Fieldhouse is just as tough for other visiting opponents, as the Jayhawks have won 40 straight contests at home and have only lost once in 38 home games against teams from the conference’s southern half.

By the numbers

Based simply on efficiency, the Jayhawks seem like a flawless team. Kansas is 9th-best in the country on the defensive end, holding opponents to just 0.883 points per possession, while they also dice teams up on the offensive end to the tune of 1.141 points per possession. That differential of nearly 0.30 points each trip down the court starts to add up quickly, and it’s led to a handful of blowouts for the Jayhawks this year.

That excellent efficiency on both ends of the ball is especially dangerous in Lawrence, where Kansas rides the crowd’s energy to punch visitors in the mouth and race out to huge early leads. Against Missouri and Kansas State, both solid teams who are bitter rivals of the Jayhawks, Kansas jumped out to 33-12 and 18-0 leads, respectively. If the Longhorns aren’t clicking early, they could be digging themselves out of a massive hole for the entire afternoon.

Statistically, the one anomaly for Kansas is their turnover margin. The Jayhawks are actually giving it up 0.8 times per game more than their opponents, and it’s been the Achilles heel for a team that oftentimes seems unbeatable. In the road loss against Missouri, KU coughed it up an inexcusable 27 times. Texas isn’t a team that forces an inordinate number of mistakes by their opponents, but they are a team that hangs on to the basketball. If the Horns can squeeze out a few extra possessions, it will only help their long odds this afternoon.

The starting five

After losing all five starters from last year’s national championship team, the Jayhawks were a huge question mark heading into the season. They boasted a recruiting class that was ranked in the top five according to Scout, but the lack of experience was a definite concern for those bleeding blue in the midwest. Fortunately, junior Sherron Collins and sophomore Cole Aldrich stepped up to the task, filling the leadership void and carrying the team to a sparkling 24-6 record to date.

Collins is the steady floor general, a wicked fast guard who can heat up in a hurry from outside. Even though he leads the team with over 18 points per game, he’s averaging nearly five assists as well. Collins’ long-range threat means that defenders can often get pump-faked before he blows by them, and the little guy knows how to finish at the rack. But perhaps more importantly, he loves to kick it out when the defense collapses down on him, and this team has its share of long-range gunners that can capitalize on the opportunities Collins opens up.

Brady Morningstar is one of those three-point threats, hitting over 41% of his attempts this season. He’s a redshirt sophomore who actually took his year off after his freshman season, and he’s a capable ball-handler who can take over for Collins in a pinch. Morningstar is the team’s best on-ball defender, and he’ll likely be tasked with getting in the face of A.J. Abrams all game long.

Big man Aldrich is the key to everything for the Jayhawks, but he’s coming into this one a bit gimpy after hurting his ankle in the waning minutes of Wednesday night’s loss to Texas Tech. Kansas loves to run an inside-out game built on Aldrich’s presence in the lane, and when he’s sitting on the bench with foul trouble or injury, the Jayhawks turn fairly one-dimensional. The center is the team’s second-leading scorer with 15 points per contest, so if that ankle flares up at all this afternoon, Texas could hang around long enough to have a shot in the final minutes.

Aldrich is also a hell of a rebounder and is averaging more than two blocks a game. Cole gets most of his blocks when he rotates over to help, so if the Texas guards can penetrate and draw him out of the lane, it could open things up for little dump-offs to Dexter Pittman, Gary Johnson, and Damion James.

Marcus Morris is the team’s lone starting forward, and one of two twin brothers from Philadelphia on the Jayhawk roster. Marcus is the more well-rounded of the two, and he is going to be an absolute star before he finishes his time at Kansas. He can isolate the defender and take him off the dribble, step out and hit the threes, or post up and kiss it off the glass. One knock on his game is a tendency to pick up dumb fouls, as he’s getting whistled about once every seven minutes. Fortunately, Coach Self has a few other solid options at forward, so he doesn’t need more than 18-20 minutes from this Morris.

Freshman Tyshawn Taylor is still a bit unpolished, but it’s clear that this kid will also be giving Big 12 opponents a bunch of headaches in the next few years. He’s only 6’3″, but his wingspan is deceptively long and he uses it to his advantage to get the shot off over taller defenders when he drives to the rim. Taylor also has a good jumper, can hit shots on the run, and penetrates with flashy speed. But he’s shown a problem with making sound decisions this year, and as a result he has more than his share of turnovers. Unfortunately, he’s also coming into this one a little banged up from the Tech game, where he injured his lower leg and headed to the locker room almost immediately.

Off the bench

Tyrel Reed is another three-point gunner for Kansas, hitting over 39% of his attempts from long range. Like Taylor and Morningstar, Reed is also enough of a ball handler to help out when Collins is off the court, but he’s not a true point guard. Taking Reed away from his natural position off the ball marginalizes his speciality, so Coach Self doesn’t waste many of his minutes by doing it.

Off the bench, Mario Little is an excellent sixth man for Coach Self and the ‘Hawks. He is a JuCo transfer that missed the first half of the season with injury, and many thought he was going to sit out the entire year and use a medical redshirt. But Little decided he wanted to help out his team immediately, and he saw his first action in conference play against Kansas State.

He’s a bit of a ‘tweener, as he can play as a big guard or a smaller forward and does both equally well. He has great outside range, can easily knock down the mid-range J, and loves to fight down low for rebounds and buckets. Despite only grabbing about 13 minutes per game, he’s averaging more than three rebounds, and is yet another player who is going to stand out in the near future.

Markieff Morris is more of a forward than his brother, and he has an even bigger problem picking up fouls. While Marcus is getting whistled once every seven minutes, Markieff is caught cheating once every five minutes. If he could learn to play better defense and stop picking up stupid fouls, Markieff Morris could earn more playing time and be a much bigger presence for the Jayhawks.

Travis Releford is a very big guard who has played in nearly every game this year, but doesn’t make a huge impact. He’s really good in the open court, but he’s not the greatest jump shooter and as a result, he struggles a bit more in the half-court. Releford can get to the rim, but he still needs some seasoning before he’s considered much of a threat.

Keys to the game

Mason and Balbay must penetrate – Both Texas guards showed that they weren’t afraid to attack the rim against Baylor on Monday night, but Mason has only rarely taken it to the rack this year. As mentioned above, Aldrich loves to rotate in help defense, so if the Texas guards can get him and the rest of the Jayhawks to play reactive defense, it should open up the post. In addition, any fouls the guards can draw on the big man will only help to turn Kansas into a team glued to the perimeter.

Play solid team defense – Kansas loves to spread out the floor, so their talented backcourt can easily expose flaws in the Texas man-to-man defense. The Longhorns are going to have to play smart D today, and work together to help on penetration without leaving the perimeter wide open. The Jayhawks can absolutely light it up from long range, so Texas simply cannot overpursue.

Shut down Collins – It seems fairly obvious to say that Texas must shut down the leading scorer for Kansas. But that’s exactly what Texas Tech did on Wednesday night, and the Jayhawks just could not get over the hump without his leadership. While you can’t really expect the Longhorns to hold Collins to an abysmal 3-of-19 like the Red Raiders did, it’s painfully obvious that the junior guard cannot score 20 points if Texas hopes to win.

The Texas Longhorns return to the Frank Erwin Center for their final home game of the year, just one win away from their tenth consecutive 20-win season. That of course makes it Senior Night for the Longhorns, who will be bidding adieu to A.J. Abrams and Connor Atchley at the end of the season. Unfortunately, Abrams is banged up from a late-game injury suffered against Oklahoma State, but he will be on the court tonight after his availability was a question mark all day.

The bad news, though, is that Gary Johnson likely won’t play. Johnson’s absence was painfully noticeable in the last two games for Texas, who struggled to establish an inside presence against much smaller teams from Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. The Baylor Bears are also a smaller, guard-oriented team, and having Johnson available to take advantage of Kevin Rogers and Quincy Acy would have been incredibly helpful.

For Texas, tonight’s game takes on massive importance not only for the magical twenty-win mark, but also because a loss tonight could seriously hamper the team’s NCAA chances. As mentioned in this afternoon’s Fast Break, the general opinion is that one win in the final two games will move the Longhorns into “lock” territory for the Big Dance. But a loss tonight could spell disaster with a road trip to Kansas looming just six days from now.

By the numbers

The Bears are a team that lives and dies by the three. They take nearly 40% of their shots from behind the arc and are fairly successful from that distance, hitting 36.4% of their attempts so far. It’s not an overstatement to say that Baylor is completely glued to the perimeter, oftentimes to their own detriment. Even if the longball isn’t falling, the Bear guards will continue to fire them off as their opponents build larger and larger leads.

Baylor’s biggest weakness is an incredibly porous defense, something that many pundits thought was going to be a point of emphasis in the offseason for Coach Scott Drew. If it was, the numbers certainly don’t show it, as they are averaging 82.6 points allowed in their 11 losses this year. A big reason for their struggles defensively is an inability to rebound off their opponents’ misses, giving teams multiple chances to score each trip down the floor.

Those rebounding struggles are not limited to the defensive end, though. Baylor opponents are grabbing more than three extra rebounds per game in relation to the Bears, and its hindering their formerly high-powered offense. Without the key offensive rebounds off of missed three-pointers, Baylor is often limited to one-and-done possessions before having to hustle back and play D.

The starting five

The leader of the team is senior Curtis Jerrells, an Austin product who will be playing in front of his friends and family at the Erwin Center for the last time. He’s fairly strong for a guy his size, so he is able to finish through contact when he drives the lane. But what Jerrells loves even more than penetrating and drawing fouls is kicking it out to find his open three-point shooters when the defense collapses on him. He leads the team with more than five assists per game, and his ability to slash is the key to Baylor’s long-range threat.

Joining Jerrells in the backcourt is another senior, Henry Dugat, who has been struggling through conference play. Just last season, Dugat was hitting 38.6% of his three pointers, and he made over 43% of his attempts in non-conference play this year. But once league competition began, he completely fell off the map, sinking just 19.5% of his threes in Big 12 games. Dugat can put the ball on the floor and attack the rim, though, so he’s still able to help out his team despite the slump.

Junior guard Tweety Carter is a heck of a player and a likely preseason All-Conference selection next season. For now, he’s content being one of many talented Bears in the backcourt, but he still manages to turn in a few highlight-reel plays every night. He’s definitely the flashiest slashing threat that Baylor has, but his ability to hit the three from well beyond NBA range keeps defenses honest. He can hit the runners and floaters, and his mid-range shooting is just as good. If the recent trend continues where a player has a breakout game against Texas, Carter is the most likely candidate.

In the frontcourt, Baylor relies on a couple of players who are only scoring threats within a few feet of the basket. Forwards Kevin Rogers and Quincy Acy are both solid defenders and shot blockers, but on the offensive end they live solely on putbacks and bunnies. Rogers has a bit more talent with the ball and loves to sink the short hook shots, but if Texas can keep these two off of the offensive glass, the Longhorns should be able to limit their production.

Off the bench

One of the best sixth men in the conference is LaceDarius Dunn, a sophomore who is the team’s second-leading scorer despite coming off of the bench. Dunn can hit shots from anywhere on the floor, can create his own looks, and knows how to get to the rim. The only knock on his offensive game is the fact that his shot comes from a nearly set position, so he has trouble getting it over lengthy defenders. With Johnson likely not playing tonight, Texas probably can’t find anyone who has not only the length to stifle Dunn, but also the speed to contain him. Hopefully this doesn’t result in a career night from the super soph.

With Dunn and the starting five eating up so many minutes for Coach Drew, the rest of the bench sees extremely limited action for Baylor. Anthony Jones has been earning a little more playing time in conference games, but the highly-touted freshman has still yet to make a major impact. He’s a string bean at 6’10”, but he’s incredibly lengthy and is a great shot blocker. He’s even a threat from three-point range, although he’s only pulled the trigger a couple of times per game.

Josh Lomers is another big man down low for Baylor, but even in his junior year he still looks awkward and overmatched. He’s a bit clunky, is famous for picking up stupid fouls, and looks completely lost when teams double down on him in the post. Lomers might eat up a few minutes, but he’s far from a game-changer.

Mamadou Diene is the other viable post option that Drew has on the bench, but since he was replaced by Acy in the starting lineup, he has seen only a few minutes per game. Diene is another lanky guy who can alter shots down low, but his offense leaves quite a bit to be desired.

Keys to the game

Crash the glass – Baylor’s weakness on the boards dovetails nicely with Texas’ strong rebounding numbers, but the Longhorns must absolutely dominate their opponents in this category tonight. The Bears love the three-pointer, and Texas is famous for giving them up in bunches. The number one defense against that is to limit Baylor to one-shot possessions, so the Longhorns have to grab those boards.

Convert the easy buckets – Texas could have easily won the game on Saturday night in Stillwater if it had made just three or four of the point-blank shots that were missed throughout the game. The Longhorns not only missed the numerous easy looks, but compounded the problem by not following them with tip-ins or even rebounds. If Texas gets that many inside looks tonight and is able to put them in, their field goal percentage will be through the roof.

Control the ball – This key isn’t really a reflection on Baylor’s defensive pressure, but rather their miserly attitude with the ball. The Bears simply do not give up possessions with dumb mistakes. Unfortunately, Texas has had a problem doing exactly that when they have the ball. If the Longhorns do not limit their unforced errors in this game, Baylor will have a huge advantage in turnover margin and a ton of extra possessions.

It’s the first Monday in March, which means that the power begins to shift from the pollsters and over to the bracketologists. We’ve still got your weekly rundown of both, but you can be certain that fans of teams on the cusp of the polls are just a teeeeensy bit more concerned about the various bubble watches floating around the internet. On to the goodies……

Following Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma State, the Longhorns slipped from both major polls this week, falling into the “others receiving votes” category. Oklahoma slid only a few spots after their Griffin-less loss to Kansas on Monday night, checking in at 4th with the AP and 5th with the writers. The Jayhawks benefitted from that victory and their blowout win over Missouri yesterday, jumping to 9th in both polls. The Tigers slid to 12th in the ESPN/USA Today Coaches poll, while the much more vengeful Associated Press shipped them all the way to 15th for their deer-in-the-headlights performance at Allen Fieldhouse. Oklahoma State also grabbed a slight bit of attention from the AP, earning two points in this week’s poll for their five-game winning streak.

For once, the resident bracketologists at Sports Illustrated and ESPN agree on the Longhorns…sort of. Andy Glockner seeds the Longhorns 9th, facing off against Utah, while Joe Lunardi pegs Texas an 8, taking on UNLV. The common ground for the two men? A trip to Dayton for this first weekend, which sits just fine with this basketball traveler, who is strongly pulling for a Friday/Sunday pod that doesn’t involve the fabulous March weather of Minneapolis. For a complete list of the tournament sites this year, click on over to my favorite Wiki.

The folks assigned to watching the bubble are also in agreement that the Longhorns really just need to win tonight to seal up their tournament bid. Both Andy Glockner of SI.com and Mark Schlabach of ESPN.com think Texas should be in. But like any good college basketball fans would know, Andy and Mark are fully aware that this schizophrenic Longhorn team could just as easily lose their last two regular season games, lay a turd in the Big 12 Tournament, and be sweating things out on Selection Sunday. For the sake of my heart and currently-forming ulcers, this doomsday scenario would be best left on the table.

This week’s consensus blogpoll at CBS Sportsline follows the lead of the major polls, with UConn ascending to the top spot. For the second straight week, our ballot was dubbed “Mr. Numb Existence” for being the one amongst the 42 submitted which most closely approximated the consensus poll. We’re not sure if that’s some sort of sign that we watch too much basketball, but we’ll take it as a compliment. Be sure to check out the link in this paragraph to not only see the rankings, but to get all of the great analysis by Jerry Hinnen of the Auburn blog The Joe Cribbs Car Wash.

Last week’s ballot was admittedly a tough one, with teams around the country refusing to play consistent basketball. As a result, we submitted rankings which we weren’t exactly proud of, but ones which best reflected the muddied state of college hoops this year.

It’s painfully clear now that there is a very thin upper crust in the NCAA this season, and a lot of other mediocre teams filling up the middle. But even amidst that thin upper crust, there’s not much differentiation, as it’s a season in which no one is the clear frontrunner for the national title.

This week’s vote was a little easier, as only ten teams which we ranked were victims of a loss over the last seven days. Below is our ballot from this week, followed by superfluous explanation. If you’re enjoying the new “change” data in the third column, you might also be interested in our previous ballot, from February 23rd.

Rank	Team	Change
1	Connecticut	1
2	Memphis	2
3	Pittsburgh	2
4	Oklahoma	1
5	North Carolina	—
6	Louisville	—
7	Duke	—
8	Wake Forest	1
9	Michigan St.	1
10	Kansas	5
11	Missouri	3
12	Villanova	1
13	Marquette	1
14	Gonzaga	2
15	Clemson	2
16	Washington	4
17	Arizona St.	3
18	UCLA	1
19	Louisiana St.	2
20	Illinois	2
21	Purdue	4
22	Xavier	1
23	Florida St.	1
24	Brigham Young	2
25	Syracuse	1

At first glance, some readers may be confused by the very minor slides from Pitt and Oklahoma. At this point, we feel that a team should be valued more on their overall body of work than simply the results from the last seven days. The recent games certainly must be taken into account, but even Pitt’s road loss to unranked Providence isn’t enough to overshadow the fact that the Panthers have many more quality wins than the Tar Heels. As for the Sooners, they get some leniency when you consider that they lost to a Kansas team which we’ve moved into the Top Ten, and that they did so without superstar Blake Griffin.

Those Jayhawks are our biggest movers of the week, shooting up from No. 15 to tenth in this week’s ballot. Kansas finished the week with an absolute mudholing of Missouri in Allen Fieldhouse yesterday, and they were also aided by the fact that Marquette, Clemson, and Arizona State all lost a pair of games during the last week.

The other portion of our ballot that is worthy of discussion this week is, as always, the troubling bottom five spots. As we mentioned in the introduction, there’s really not any consistency or exceptional quality once you get past the initial contenders, and losses this week by West Virginia and Texas muddied things up at the bottom once again. You may notice that even though Florida State lost on the road against Boston College, they actually climbed a rung in our rankings this week. That’s an anomaly explained by both the Seminoles’ huge win against Clemson on Saturday, and the fact that once again there was a dearth of teams wanting to crack the rankings.

Some bloggers have been ranking Butler, which actually resulted in the Bulldogs checking in at 24th in our consensus poll last week. Considering that they won their pair of games this week, they likely will even climb when the consensus poll is released this afternoon. But the simple fact of the matter is that Butler lost at home to Loyola-Chicago and on the road to Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Wisconsin-Green Bay. Do you honestly think the Bulldogs would be sitting at 25-4 if they played in a conference that was worth a damn?

As we’ve mentioned, the consensus blogpoll will be up later this afternoon. Fast Break will be here for your late afternoon enjoyment, including new bracket projections, bubble watches, and the real polls from the AP and coaches. The Baylor game preview will follow in the late afternoon.

If you told most Longhorn fans that their team would hold the high-scoring Oklahoma State Cowboys to only 30 points in the first half, they would gladly take it. And if you told them that OSU would have just 60 points with only a minute and a half left, those fans would probably snap up the offer twice as fast as the first one. But on Saturday in Stillwater, those relatively low point totals were all that the Cowboys would need for a win, as their defense was the most stifling it’s been all season.

It’s true that Texas missed its share of easy shots in the lane, but the credit goes to Coach Travis Ford and the OSU players, who focused their attention on big men Dexter Pittman and Damion James in an effort to mitigate the huge height advantage Texas enjoyed. With Justin Mason and Dogus Balbay only negligible scoring threats, the Cowboys were able to sag off those two guards and give extra help down low.

That defensive strategy certainly underscored just how important Gary Johnson is to the Texas offense, as the sophomore forward sat on the bench for a second straight game thanks to an injury suffered against Oklahoma. All of the pressure to produce in the paint was then left on the shoulders of Pittman and James, who combined to go only 3-of-12 in the first half, including an inexcusable number of missed two-footers.

The bright spots for Texas were few and far between, which is to be expected when a team shoots just 31.5% from the field and has twice as many turnovers as assists. But the best news of the day was the play of Harrison Smith, who provided 17 minutes off the bench for Coach Rick Barnes. For once, Smith was not just eating up minutes on the floor in order to teach the starting guards a lesson; rather, he chipped in a career-high 12 points and helped ignite a furious Texas comeback.

That Longhorn rally is the other positive that their fans can take solace in, as the team refused to fold in a hostile road environment despite a 17-point deficit with only 17 minutes left on the clock. And even more impressive than the comeback itself is the fact that the team did it without the assistance of longballs from sharpshooter A.J. Abrams, who was absolutely shut down by the Pokes defenders. Abrams had just a trio of three-pointers on the day, which were sandwiched around his scoreless stretches of 18 and 16 minutes.

The loss muddies things up in the conference standings, as the Cowboy win and a Kansas State victory in Manhattan have forced a three-way tie for fourth place. Fortunately for those who dislike Big 12 tiebreaking procedures, the Wildcats and Cowboys meet on Tuesday night in a game that could decide who claims that final first-round bye in Oklahoma City. The Longhorns, meanwhile, must handle Baylor at home before traveling to Lawrence for a tough season finale against the Jayhawks.