The Longhorns return to action tonight when they host the hated Aggies in an early conference game that has significant implications for both teams. Texas A&M is finishing a tough five game stretch against the league’s top teams, and a loss would drop them a full four games behind conference leader Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Texas has played inconsistently as of late, alternating wins and losses in its last four games. If they hope to contend for a Big 12 title and a favorable NCAA draw, the Longhorns will need to start stringing together wins.

By the numbers

Coach Billy Gillispie led Texas A&M out of basketball irrelevance and into the national consciousness with a brand of hard-nosed, physical basketball. The Aggies were constantly ranked in the upper echelons of the NCAAs in defensive metrics, and they often won ugly games in the 50-point range. This Aggie team, under second-year Coach Mark Turgeon, is still playing a slower style of basketball. But the defense that often carried the Gillispie teams is no longer present.

The Aggies are averaging under 65 possessions a game, which puts them in the bottom third of the country in tempo. Texas is not much faster at 67.4 per contest, so neither team will be trying to force the other into a different brand of basketball. However, the Longhorns are a more efficient team than the Aggies on both sides of the ball. Unless Texas A&M is able to increase their number of possessions through offensive rebounding or forcing turnovers, Texas wins this game on paper.

If you were to look at raw rebounding numbers, it would seem that the Aggies are a strong rebounding team that dominates on the glass. After all, they have outrebounded opponents by over four boards per game. But against quality competition, Texas A&M is struggling to win the battle. They are being slightly outrebounded in conference play, and were even dominated 20-5 in the first half against a marginal Arizona team back in December. For a Longhorns squad that is winning the battle on the boards by more than five per game, this could be an area to exploit in tonight’s contest.

The starting five

The leading scorer for Texas A&M is swingman Josh Carter, who is an absolutely deadly long-range threat. While he has never matched his ridiculous sophomore season, when he tied for the national lead by hitting 50% from behind the arc, Carter still makes 38% of his attempts. But despite his solid stroke, the senior has been frustrated in conference play, averaging less than 10 points per contest, including a goose egg against Oklahoma State. He has lit the Longhorns up in the past, so Texas certainly cannot afford to sleep on Carter in this one. But if he fails to revert to his early-season form, it could be a long night for the Aggies.

At the point is heady junior Donald Sloan. While he spent much of last year being saddled with the unrealistic expectations Acie Law had left behind in College Station, Sloan still provided enough steady leadership to get Texas A&M within a shot of the Sweet Sixteen. Unfortunately for the floor general, there’s no true go-to guy in this offense and the Aggies can go very long stretches of time without a basket. Early in games against both Kansas and Oklahoma State, Texas A&M struggled to put any points on the board, and it is difficult for Sloan to carry the team on his own. When he does try to press and do things by himself, it often results in dumb turnovers. If Sloan can keep his head on straight and control the basketball, the Aggies will have a good shot in tonight’s game.

While Texas A&M lacks that one stand-out player, they are enjoying quality contributions from their post players. Bryan Davis is having a great year, averaging over ten points and six rebounds per game. He’s also added to his arsenal of post moves and can now score just about every way possible within a few feet of the bucket. Chinemelu Elonu has also made great strides this year, becoming a much more important part of the offense. He logged a career-high 20 points against Oklahoma State in the conference opener, and leads the team in double-doubles.

Derrick Roland is another long-range threat for Coach Turgeon, but his true specialty is lock-down defense. While Texas A&M’s main weakness this year has been giving up the three-pointer, the Longhorns have failed to find any true gunners beyond A.J. Abrams. If Roland is able to neutralize Texas’ main three-point weapon, this one glaring weakness in the A&M defense will likely go unexposed.

Off the bench

Sophomore guard B.J. Holmes is making huge contributions off the bench, and is easily my pick for Sixth Man of the Year in the Big 12 Conference. He’s a very quick guard who can attack the rim, but his 38% accuracy from behind the arc makes it dangerous for teams to sag off of him. When the Aggies are having trouble scoring with their experienced starting five, Holmes is usually the man providing the spark and pushing the issue. The Longhorns will certainly have their hands full trying to contain this kid.

If freshmen Dash Harris and David Loubeau are any indication of the talent that Turgeon is going to be bringing to College Station over the next few years, Aggie fans have a lot to look forward to. Like Holmes, Harris is a very quick guard who can turn on that burst of speed at a moment’s notice. He’s still having trouble with decision making, but as he gains experience in conference play, he will be a very valuable weapon off the bench.

Loubeau is a very lanky, highly-touted forward from Miami who won two national championships with his AAU team. He still needs to bulk up if he’s going to withstand the rigors of Big 12 play, but his hook shot and short- to mid-range game mean that he is going to be a tough match-up for many forwards who aren’t used to defending players like him.

The final word

By all indications, this is a home game that the Longhorns should win. They are statistically better in virtually every category, and home court advantage in college basketball is huge. The only danger is that Texas has had a tendency to play down to the level of their opponent this season, so they could easily let Texas A&M hang around for far too long. And against an Aggie team that beat Arizona in the final seconds and tied Alabama in the last second before winning in overtime, that’s a risk that Texas cannot afford to take.

The Longhorns must come out early and put points on the board to keep A&M and their struggling offense at a manageable distance. They will need to continue their solid rebounding, and should look to force mistakes by point guard Sloan in order to collect easy transition buckets.

There are still a few tickets left for this one, which are only available for purchase in person at the Erwin Center box office. If you can’t manage to make it to the Drum, however, be sure to tune into ESPNU for all the action.

National Broadcasts (All times Eastern)

West Virginia Mountaineers (13-4, 3-2 Big East) at #12 Georgetown Hoyas (12-4, 2-2) | 7 PM, ESPN
The Hoyas are looking to start piling up wins in conference play now that the toughest stretch is behind them. Despite the league placing eight teams in the top twenty-five, the next six games for Georgetown include only one ranked opponent. The Mountaineers, unfortunately, have no such luck. After traveling to face Georgetown tonight, they will take on Pitt and Louisville before the end of January. For two teams stuck in the middle of a packed conference, this could very well be a turning point.

#18 Purdue Boilermakers (14-4, 3-2 Big 10) at #21 Minnesota Golden Gophers (16-2, 4-2) | 7 PM, ESPN2
Michigan State’s home loss to Northwestern has cracked the door open in the Big 10, and these two teams are the ones best positioned to take advantage. Sure, the Golden Gophers had their own loss to the Wildcats on Sunday, but they have the privilege of only playing the Boilermakers once — and having home court in tonight’s match-up. The Spartans, who now lead the conference by only one game, still have two-games on tap with Purdue. If Minnesota can hold home court tonight, they could reap the rewards as the other contenders knock each other off.

St. Louis Billikens (11-6, 2-1 Atlantic 10) at Temple Owls (9-7, 1-1) | 8 PM, CBS College Sports
If you’re fortunate enough to get this channel, you might be disappointed that the A-10 game on the air tonight isn’t Dayton’s visit to Foggy Bottom. But if you happen to tune into this contest between two of the conference middle-tier squads, you’ll be treated to the play of star Dionte Christmas, who is leading the way with 21 points and six boards.

St. Mary’s Gaels (17-1, 4-0 WCC) at San Diego Toreros (12-7, 4-0) | 9 PM, ESPN2
The WCC has quietly built itself into a power conference at the top, with Gonzaga still statistically ranked as one of the best teams in the land. But it’s the emergence of St. Mary’s and San Diego that have made the league stronger. San Diego crashed the NCAAs last year with a win in the conference tournament before shocking the country with a trip to the Sweet Sixteen. Meanwhile, the Gaels have earned all sorts of pub with their Australian pipeline, which has brought previously unheralded players such as Patty Mills and made them stars in the states. While this may seem like an unimportant game to the casual viewer, it’s actually a must-win if either team hopes to challenge the Zags this year.

#13 UCLA Bruins (14-3, 4-1 Pac-10) at Washington State Cougars (11-6, 3-2) | 9 PM, FSN
After stumbling early in the season against Michigan and Texas, the Bruins have quietly plugged along, having won ten straight games prior to Saturday’s overtime loss to Arizona State. The loss dropped the Bruins into a three-way tie for the league lead with Cal and Washington, who they will face this weekend. Ben Howland’s team can’t afford to look ahead to that match-up, though, as guard Taylor Rochestie lit up Oregon this weekend to the tune of 30 points. And the Cougars will certainly be fired up in front of the home crowd, as they hope to exorcise the demons of an eight-game losing streak to the Bruins.

USC Trojans (12-5, 3-2 Pac-10) at Washington Huskies (13-4, 4-1) | 11 PM, FSN
Coach Tim Floyd has brought a frustrating brand of defense to Los Angeles, which has turned the Trojans from a conference also-ran to a contender in just a few seasons. Never was that defensive transformation more apparent than Thursday night, when USC absolutely shut down Arizona State’s National Player of the Year candidate James Harden. The super soph, who has averaged 22 points per contest, was stifled by the Trojans, going 0-for-8 from the field and finishing with only four points from the line. USC will have to spread out that solid defense tonight, though, as the Huskies run a balanced attack with four players averaging double-digits in scoring.

ESPN Full Court

Not a lot to choose from on the pay package tonight, but if you want to be the guy who predicts the 14-seed upsets come March, you might get some added intel from this set of games.

Vermont Catamounts at Hartford Hawks | 7:30 PM, ESPNFC1

UW-Milwaukee Panthers at Valparaiso Crusaders | 8 PM, ESPNFC2

New Mexico State Aggies at Boise State Broncos | 9 PM, ESPNFC4

#2 Duke Blue Devils 73, NC State Wolfpack 56 – After twenty minutes, the second-ranked team in the nation trailed State by four, thanks to a paltry 29% shooting clip in the first half. But Coach K’s team shot a ridiculous 20-of-29 in the second half, while holding the visitors to just one field goal in the final eight minutes of play. Gerald Henderson led the way for the Dukies, posting 21 with seven rebounds.

#24 Illinois Fighting Illini 67, Ohio State Buckeyes 49 – Bruce Weber’s defense continued its stifling play, forcing the Buckeyes into 20 turnovers on the night, a season high for the visiting club. Dominique Keller provided a spark off the bench for Illinois, dropping in 12 points to go with his six boards in only twenty minutes of play. The win keeps the Illini tied for second in the Big 10, with a huge home game against Wisconsin looming on Saturday afternoon.

Texas Tech Red Raiders 63, Colorado Buffaloes 55 – With sharpshooting senior Alan Voskuil suffering from the flu and limited to only three points, Mike Singletary was asked to carry the load for Tech on Tuesday night. The big man bruised his way to 20 points and nine rebounds in only 22 minutes off the bench, propelling the Red Raiders to their first conference victory of the season.

It’s not exactly a night that will keep you glued to the couch, which might seem obvious when Ohio State and Illinois play in the headliner…

Top 25 Action

Ohio State (13-3 overall, 3-2 Big 10) at #25 Illinois (15-3, 3-2) | 7 PM ET, ESPN
Bruce Weber and the Illini have bounced back from an awful 2007-08 season much faster than anyone might have expected, but a tough stretch to open conference play has left them in the middle of the standings. Ohio State finds itself in the middle of that same pack, but enters tonight’s game in Champaign as winners of five straight against Illinois. The Buckeyes will have their work cut out for them, however, as they are ranked 250th in the country in offensive rebounding and are facing the nation’s 10th-ranked defense.

North Carolina State (10-5 overall, 1-2 ACC) at #2 Duke (16-1, 3-0) | 8 ET, ESPN Full Court
Duke has been playing absolutely lights out as of late, most recently shutting down Georgetown on Saturday afternoon at Cameron Indoor. They are sporting an NCAA-best +0.345 efficiency differential, just ahead of their Tobacco Road rival, North Carolina. In simpler terms, the Blue Devils outscore their opponents by 0.345 points per possession, which means that even if the Wolfpack can slow things down to their tempo, they will only lose by……approximately 22 points. Uh oh.

Big 12 Games

Colorado (8-8 overall, 0-2 Big 12) at Texas Tech (10-7, 0-2) | 8 PM ET, ESPN Full Court
It’s a game matching two teams that have the potential to be the absolute worst squads in the Big 12! If that doesn’t scream “must watch,” I’m not sure what else does. Perhaps a marathon of the Ryan Seacrest-produced reality show, Momma’s Boys?

Around the country

Tennessee (11-5 overall, 2-1 SEC) at Vanderbilt (12-5, 1-2) | 9 PM ET, ESPN
Last year, these two teams put on one of the most exciting games of the season, as the Commodores eked out a three-point win over their cross-state rivals, who had just reached No. 1 for the first time in school history. This year, there’s not nearly as much on the line, but excitement is still on tap. Just ask stat guru Ken Pomeroy, who hopes his new FanMatch feature can pinpoint the most intriguing match-ups of the night. And according to Mr. Pomeroy’s brand-spanking-new ranking system, this particular Battle of Tennessee has a 71.7% chance of kicking major ass. Guaranteed.

Bill Self might be in trouble for saying hello to recruit John Wall. Really? AAU coaches and family members of recruits are hired on staffs or paid to speak at camps and clinics, and this is what catches the NCAA’s attention? Basketball recruiting needs some cleaning up, but this kind of crap is not what they should be focusing on. Hell, if the Dallas Morning News could dig up the dirt on the Big 12, then certainly the NCAA could do some actual good instead of policing interactions like the one Self and Wall had.

Andy Glockner debuted his Bubble Watch this week, with seven Big 12 teams worthy of consideration in the field of sixty-five. OU is his only lock thus far, but Baylor and Texas sit just outside that coveted circle at the moment.

Don’t look now, but St. Joseph’s might be hitting its stride as A-10 play kicks off. The Hawks certainly aren’t a candidate for an NCAA at-large bid at this point, but they’ve opened league play at 3-0 and are helping Texas’ computer numbers with every win. The Atlantic 10+4 is clearly Xavier’s to lose, but St. Joe’s has the luxury of only having to play the Muskies once in the league’s unbalanced round robin — and the Hawks get to host the game at their temporary home, The Palestra.