3.05.08
Posted by Ryan Clark at 5:33PM

Just checking in for a few minutes after work, as we’ll soon be hitting the road for a special late-season roadie. Texas A&M visits the Ferrell Center tonight to face Baylor in a game with huge bubble implications, and Longhorn Road Trip will be there.

At the moment, both teams seem to be safe for the NCAAs, but a slip tonight could mean that the Aggies head to Kansas City as losers of six out of seven. With every upset in a mid-major tournament stealing a bid from the bubble, Mark Turgeon’s team can’t afford that trend.

For Baylor, a win would solidify their résumé and practically ensure a first-round bye in the Big 12 Tournament. It is also Senior Night for the Bears, which means that Aaron Bruce and Mark Shepherd will be playing their last game in the Golden Nipple. Take all of these storylines, mix in the hated Aggies as the opponents, and Waco should be absolutely rocking tonight.

A few notes on the Nebraska win will be headed your way late tonight or sometime tomorrow, along with a report on the trip to Waco.

3.04.08
Posted by Ryan Clark at 3:38PM

Mark Rosner of the Austin American-Statesman posted in his blog this afternoon that Texas has landed 2010 forward Tristan Thompson. The sophomore is ranked fifth in his class by Rivals.com and is currently playing his ball at St. Benedict’s Prep Academy in New Jersey, the same school that produced J.R. Smith. Rosner reports that the Toronto native was a huge Durant fan and that assistant Rodney Terry was key in the signing.

One other item of note from Rosner is that J’Covan Brown, Wesley Witherspoon, and ’09 target Renardo Sidney will be in town on Sunday to visit. It’s unfortunate that Witherspoon and Sidney will see a game when the students are away on Spring Break, but I know that the facilities and staff here in Austin will more than make up for it.

3.04.08
Posted by Ryan Clark at 3:13PM

Nebraska Cornhuskers (17-10 overall, 6-8 Big 12) at #9 Texas Longhorns (24-5, 11-3)
Tip: 6:35 P.M. CST | TV: Fox Sports Net/ESPN Full Court

Texas returns home after a surprising loss in Lubbock, hoping to maintain their hold on the Big 12 Championship and a 1-seed in the conference tournament next weekend. Standing in their way are the suddenly resurgent Nebraska Cornhuskers, winners of three of their last four, including a road upset of Texas A&M just a little over a week ago. With the early tip time and likely meager crowd, the Longhorns will have to be careful against a Nebraska team that can surprise anyone on any given night.

By the numbers

Nebraska’s game is built upon their excellent defense, which is ranked 20th in the country in efficiency. Over their last ten games, the Cornhuskers have allowed only two teams to notch an eFG% of greater than 50%. Doc Sadler’s team will try to limit the number of possessions and rely upon their stingy D to keep the score low enough that they can snatch a victory.

While Nebraska turns the ball over only about thirteen times a game, that number can be a bit misleading because of their pace of play. That slow-down brand of basketball that the Cornhuskers utilize means that their adjusted tempo is 302nd in the country out of 341 Division I teams. If Texas can not only pressure the ball, but also force the tempo against the stubborn Huskers, they can easily cruise in this one.

The starting five

Nebraska is completely built around the game of big man Aleks Maric. The 6’11” Aussie leads the team in scoring and averages a double-double with a line of 16/10. Not only can he showcase a myriad of post moves, but Maric is an excellent passer who draws the double team and has an eye for the interior dish or the back-door cut. Coach Sadler also likes to run high screens with Aleks, drawing out the bigger post defenders and opening up the inside lanes for their slashing guards. Texas will have a tough time matching up with the big man, but should be able to shut down the rest of the anemic Nebraska offense.

Point guard Cookie Miller is the other key player for Nebraska, although an injury suffered at Texas A&M on February 23rd has kept him out of the last two games. There’s no word yet on whether or not he will return to the floor this evening, much less the starting line-up. If he does play, Texas will be facing a guard who is quick on the dribble-drive and is a deft passer. He’s still turning over the ball more than you’d like for a point guard, but as he gains experience over the years he will likely develop into a hell of a threat. Miller is also a short guard, so he does not give the Longhorns a poor match-up defensively if he’s on the floor.

A candidate for the Big 12 All-Newcomer team is JuCo transfer Steve Harley. He’s another tiny guard who checks in at 5’11”, and he can shoot it from anywhere on the floor. But despite his tiny size, he’s not afraid to take it inside and try to earn his points amongst the trees.

Ryan Anderson is a 6’4″ guard who can hang out on the perimeter in the 4-out, 1-in look that Sadler employs. But on defense, he’s often mismatched with much taller players at the 3 or the 4. The Longhorns don’t go big often enough for this to be a huge factor in today’s game, but he will give up a few inches against Damion James and could find himself in a huge mismatch if he’s ever up against Connor Atchley, Clint Chapman, or Alexis Wangmene.

At 6-foot, 5-inches, Ade Dagunduro plays like a man much longer than he actually is. The “guard” also has to deal with the match-up issues that Anderson faces, but he is a solid defender and rebounder who can often hold his own against the taller players. Dagunduro also has a nice mid-range jumper, has shown range out to 18 feet, and can take it to the rack if the defense press him.

Off the bench

Sek Henry may start this game in place of Miller, but has often been a key sixth man for Coach Sadler this year. He has been tasked with running the point while Cookie has been injured, but it isn’t a natural role for him. He’s much more of a slashing guard, although his scoring punch hasn’t really been seen until the last few games. He’s good for five to seven points, but shouldn’t be a huge problem for the Horns today.

Sophomore guard Jay-R Strowbridge is playing about eighteen minutes a game and reminds me of a poor man’s A.J. Abrams. He’s undersized, has a quick release, and has been hitting threes at about a 38% clip so far this year. If he somehow gets hot tonight, it could make things interesting.

With the 4-out, 1-in look, Nebraska has oftentimes struggled on the offensive glass this year. The recent play of sophomore Chris Balham is helping with that problem, as he’s earned double-digit minutes in seven conference games after hardly playing throughout the non-conf slate. In those seven games, Balham is averaging 3.5 boards per contest, which would surprisingly put him fourth on the team.

What to look for

While Nebraska could feasibly win this game today, this is a program that is building for the future. Coach Sadler has redshirted five players, including a little-used sophomore, and will only be losing Maric to graduation this summer. If Texas takes care of business, this should be a one-sided affair.

1) Control the glass – The Longhorns can’t afford to let Nebraska suddenly become a solid rebounding club. The Cornhuskers are not a very good offensive team, so limiting them to one-and-done possessions should keep Nebraska from scoring enough to hang with Texas.

2) Limit Maric’s touches – It’s difficult to keep the big man from touching the ball considering the entire NU offense runs through him. But if Texas can keep him from catching the ball in the low blocks, things will be much easier tonight. Of course, they could also get him in early foul trouble like Oklahoma State did…

3) Play up to potential – This seems like a silly key point, but the fact of the matter is that Texas played one of its worst games of the year on Saturday. If the Longhorns play the way that they should, tonight’s game should not ever be in doubt. But play poor defense again or turn it over like they have in the last two, and things could get dicey.

3.03.08
Posted by Ryan Clark at 5:24PM

We’re just hours from the last Big Monday of the year, which means that conference tournaments are right around the corner. Cornell already punched their NCAA ticket in the tournament-less Ivy League, while the Big South, Ohio Valley, and Horizon all kick off their conference knockouts tomorrow.

The road loss to Tech didn’t hurt the Horns too much, as Texas slid four spots to #9 in both rankings. North Carolina was the benefactor of Tennessee’s loss in Nashville, with the Heels taking over first in both polls. Kansas was the only other Big 12 team to be ranked (5th by the AP and 6th by the coaches), while Baylor received votes in both polls and A&M earned three points in the AP despite losing four of their last five.

The loss also knocked Texas to a 2-seed in Lunardi’s latest projection, although it put the Horns back in Houston for the second weekend. Kansas also earned a 2-seed in this projection, with Kansas State (8), Baylor (9), Oklahoma (9), and Texas A&M (10) also making the field.

3.03.08
Posted by Ryan Clark at 3:52PM

Although slots four through ten are no longer separated by just a game as they were this time last week, the league is still a complete mess in the middle as the season winds to a close. Thanks to a complete tanking by Kansas State — losers of four straight and five out of six — the Baylor Bears actually control their own destiny in regards to the 3-seed in Kansas City. And with a late-season push, even the Oklahoma State Cowboys are within striking distance of that fourth and final bye in the conference tournament.

Texas Longhorns (11-3)
Remaining games: vs. Nebraska (Tuesday), vs. Oklahoma State (Sunday)
Outlook: The loss to Tech puts the Longhorns in a tie with Kansas once again, but they hold the tiebreaker for the #1 seed in Kansas City thanks to the victory over the Jayhawks last month. The crowds for this week’s games could be abysmal, with the Nebraska tip at 6:30 P.M. and the Oklahoma State game being played during Spring Break.

Kansas Jayhawks (11-3)
Remaining games: vs. Texas Tech (Tonight), at Texas A&M (Saturday)
Outlook: Unless the Longhorns stumble, the best that Kansas can hope for is a split title and the 2-seed in the post-season tournament. But Kansas must match Texas stride-for-stride down the homestretch, and their schedule is admittedly more difficult. Tech has a very slim shot at the NCAAs, but a road win in Lawrence would propel them to the top of the bubble discussion. And with A&M fading fast, their backs will be against the wall when Kansas comes to town on Sunday. KU cannot afford to overlook either one of these two teams.

Baylor Bears (8-6)
Remaining games: vs. Texas A&M (Wednesday), at Texas Tech (Saturday)
Outlook: Thanks to the head-to-head win over K-State, the Bears would claim the 3-seed if they win their remaining two games. But a stumble against A&M or Tech opens the door for the four teams sitting just a game back at 7-7, so Scott Drew’s guard-tastic team has to stay on top of its game this final week.

Kansas State Wildcats (8-6)
Remaining games: vs. Colorado (Tuesday), at Iowa State (Saturday)
Outlook: While Baylor does hold the tiebreaker, the Wildcats have the more manageable schedule this week. The home game against Colorado should finally snap the KSU slide, but this team has struggled all season long on the road and Hilton Coliseum will be a tough place to win on Senior Night. A split this week could drop the ‘Cats all the way from first place at the beginning of February to an opening-round game next Thursday in KC.

Texas A&M Aggies (7-7)
Remaining games: at Baylor (Wednesday), vs. Kansas (Saturday)
Outlook: While the K-State slide might seem monumental, the Aggies are the only team in the country this year who have fallen from the Top 10 to sweating things out on the bubble. A&M managed less than a point a minute in Norman on Saturday, and that simply won’t get the job done against the high-powered offenses of Baylor and Kansas. If Texas A&M wants to feel secure about its place in the NCAAs, they really have to steal that road game in Waco on Wednesday night, one that Longhorn Road Trip will be watching live from the Ferrell Center.

Oklahoma Sooners (7-7)
Remaining games: at Oklahoma State (Wednesday), vs. Missouri (Saturday)
Outlook: Of the four southern teams knotted at 7-7, Oklahoma has the easiest schedule left. The road game against Bedlam rival OSU won’t be easy, but a 9-7 finish and a potential 4-seed is within the grasp of the Sooners.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-7)
Remaining games: vs. Oklahoma (Wednesday), at Texas (Sunday)
Outlook: Raise your hand if you thought OSU would be earning fringe bubble talk with a week left to go in the season. Anyone? Fry? Bueller? The Pokes have a bitch of a finish in Austin on Sunday, but home court in the Bedlam series could put them above .500 in league play for what feels like the first time since Grover Cleveland was in office.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-7)
Remaining games: at Kansas (Tonight), vs. Baylor (Saturday)
Outlook: Pat Knight already has two Top 25 upsets on his nine-game bio, but both of those came in the friendly confines of the United Spirit Arena. This difficult final stretch will test the Red Raiders, and they could easily drop both games and find themselves playing in the dreaded 8-9 game next week.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-8)
Remaining games: at Texas (Tuesday), vs. Colorado (Sunday)
Outlook: After a promising non-conference start, Nebraska fizzled in Big 12 play. Winning three of their last four has them in the mix, but a tough road date with the Longhorns could quickly kill that momentum. The home game against Colorado on Sunday should provide an easy win, setting the Huskers up for potential home games in the NIT.

Missouri Tigers (5-9)
Remaining games: vs. Iowa State (Wednesday), at Oklahoma (Saturday)
Outlook: A possible split to finish the season for the Tigers, who have to be happy with even five conference wins after their entire team decided to have a brawl in a nightclub. If only they’d decided to have their Ultimate Fighting Championship prior to the game with Texas…

Iowa State Cyclones (4-10)
Remaining games: at Missouri (Wednesday), vs. Kansas State (Saturday)
Outlook: With K-State struggling on the road, the Cyclones could put a nice capper on a disappointing season by pulling off the home upset on Jiri Hubalek’s senior day. While the season has generally been a wash, the young talent that Coach McDermott has on-board could mean that great things will be happening in Ames in the near future.

Colorado Buffaloes (3-11)
Remaining games: at Kansas State (Tuesday), at Nebraska (Sunday)
Outlook: Richard Roby will finally exhaust his eligibility. It’s about damned time.

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