The Texas Longhorns and Duke Blue Devils meet for the fourth time in the history of the two programs, but tonight’s match-up comes with much more on the line. While Duke has won all three previous “neutral” site meetings between the two teams, none of those wins came in the NCAA tournament. Tonight’s winner, though, will move on to a berth in the Sweet 16 and a meeting with UCLA or Villanova.

Texas comes into this one playing some very good basketball, if you can choose to overlook the first two-and-a-half minutes of the first-round game against Minnesota. And considering the way the rest of that game turned out, I can certainly choose to do that. A.J. Abrams went absolutely bananas from behind the arc, knocking down eight three-pointers en route to a 26-point night. The reason the perimeter was so wide open for A.J. was the dominating play of big man Dexter Pittman, who logged another double-double with 17 points and 11 rebounds and forced the Golden Gophers to switch to a zone in hopes of shutting down the post.

The play of those two men will be huge in tonight’s contest, as the Longhorns are facing a Duke team which lacks a true inside presence. The Blue Devils love to double down on bigger post players to mitigate the disadvantage, which means that A.J. must be hitting from outside. If Abrams is cold and Duke can contain Pittman with their doubling on the block, Texas will have a very rough time winning this game.

By the numbers

The Blue Devils have a very efficient offense, but what makes them scary is that they have an equally efficient defense to go along with it. Duke ranks 5th in the nation in offensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy’s number-crunching, and their defense checks in at 16th in the country. Being so strong on both sides of the ball led the Blue Devils to a menacing average margin of victory of 14.5 during regular-season play.

Those strong defensive numbers are fueled by an aggressive man-to-man defense that forces steals and pushes opponents out of their comfort zone. Duke ranked second in the ACC this season with nearly nine steals a game, and they forced opponents into just under 17 miscues per contest. While the Longhorns have actually handled pressure fairly well this season, they have had some issues with unforced turnovers. Tonight, Texas simply can’t afford to be dropping passes and rebounds or getting whistled for three-second calls and travels.

On the glass, Duke is nothing spectacular. As mentioned earlier, they lack a true post presence, so bigger teams are able to easily abuse them on the boards. But the Blue Devil players are ridiculously quick and hustle all over the floor, so they make up for it by grabbing a bunch of hustle rebounds that they have no business corralling. Their offensive rebounding numbers actually put them in the top 25 nationally, so the Longhorns can’t afford to be lazy when they box out following Duke misses. On the year, the Blue Devils posted a +3 rebounding margin per game.

Duke loves to slash to the basket, force the defense to react, and then move the ball around to find the open man. That has resulted in a lot of open three-point looks and seemingly endless runs where the Blue Devils torch their opponents from long range. But what many fans forget is that Duke has missed a lot of three-pointers as well, and their 35.2% success rate from behind the arc barely puts them in the top third of NCAA teams. Texas has had quite a problem letting teams get hot from long range, though, so they cannot afford to push their luck by giving easy looks to the Duke gunners.

The Blue Devils also love to draw the charge, so Pittman, Damion James, and Varez Ward will all need to watch their control with the ball. All three players have picked up more than their fair share of offensive fouls, and with Duke flopping all over the floor on the slightest bump, they are likely to pick up a few more tonight. These three guys will have to be careful and aware of their position on the court.

The starting five

The Duke lineup is an incredibly interesting one, as Coach K has been tinkering with rotations and starters for much of the season. Throughout the post-season, he has spread out the minutes even further, giving some of his bench players just as much time on the court as a few of the starters.

Guard Elliott Williams is one Blue Devil who is sharing a lot of the work load with other talented backcourt players off the bench. He is a speedy player who has great ups and hustles all over the floor, and he plays tough, hard-nosed defense that is incredibly popular with the Blue Devil faithful. Williams is only a freshman who averages about 15 minutes per game, but his role has expanded throughout ACC play and into the post-season. He’s going to make a few plays tonight that cause you to do a double-take, but look for Williams to become a true breakout star in the next few years.

Joining him in the backcourt is junior Jon Scheyer, a 6’5″ string bean whose length could cause some problems for the shorter Texas guards. Scheyer is a prototypical Duke player, the scrappy white guy with a deadly shot and a knack for hitting the clutch bucket every time your team is trying to make a run. The Blue Devils are at their best when he is hitting from long range, where he’s leading the team at a 38.8% clip. If the Longhorns let Scheyer heat up, they can likely kiss their upset chances goodbye.

The lanky forward Kyle Singler is Duke’s other key long-range gunner, hitting 38% of his long-range attempts. He’s another scrappy, hustling Blue Devil, and his 7.7 rebounds per game lead the team. Even though he’s often found taking jumpers from beyond the perimeter, Singler always crashes to the glass and punishes teams who are lazy at boxing out on the long J.

Junior swingman Gerald Henderson is an exciting player to watch, but he could very likely frustrate Texas fans tonight. He’s excellent at creating off the dribble and slashing to the rim, but he’s still an effective jump shooter as well. The Longhorns will find success against Henderson if they can head him off at the arc and force him to take long-range jumpers. While he can knock them down, Henderson is a much better finisher at the iron, and Texas can’t afford to give him a ton of points (and fouls) inside.

Lance Thomas is one Blue Devil who isn’t going to prove his worth on the stat sheet. Like most of his teammates, he is a hustle guy who annoys opponents by seemingly existing in eight different places on the court at once. But since Thomas only averages five points and three boards a game, so you won’t be reading about his huge role in tomorrow’s newspaper. If you watch the game, though, you’ll see him causing havoc with his pressure defense and gritty determination.

Off the bench

The real X-factor in tonight’s game is going to be big man Brian Zoubek. At 7-foot, 1-inch, he could be the best answer that the Blue Devils have to Pittman inside. Zoubek only averages about 12 minutes per game, though, so it will be interesting to see if Coach K elects to give him more minutes at the expense of a better offensive player. In addition to shutting down Pittman, Zoubek also changes the game simply with his length down low. He forces guards to take different angles and adjust their shots, so giving him more minutes could also make Dogus Balbay, Justin Mason, and Varez Ward less effective when they try to penetrate off the dribble.

Guard Greg Paulus is a selfless player who has been relegated to the bench in his senior year after being a team leader for most of his time on campus. He provides heady play when he’s on the court, and has more unbridled passion and energy in a 6’1″ frame than I think I’ve ever seen. He’s not a big-time scorer, although he’s a serviceable long-range threat, but his on-court leadership and ability to manage the game are huge.

One reason Paulus has seen a lot less playing time is the emergence of Nolan Smith, an off guard who has been asked to add point duties to his job description. He’s learning the one on the fly and is doing an impressive job of it, while averaging about five points and two assists per game. He’s an incredibly quick guard who loves to attack the rim, and when teams foul him on the layups, he makes them pay with a solid 85% success rate at the line.

David McClure is the only other Blue Devil who is likely to get a significant chunk of minutes tonight, but like Thomas, he is an intangibles guy who runs all over the court. Against Binghamton on Thursday night, McClure scored only two points in 16 minutes, but he added three rebounds, two steals, and a host of other hustle plays that don’t show up in the box score.

Keys to the game

Let Dexter dominate – As we mentioned in the lead, the Blue Devils have proven to be soft inside and big men have eaten them up this season. If Dexter is scoring a ton of points, not only does Texas reap the benefits on the scoreboard, but they also will enjoy the added benefit of more open looks for Abrams and James.

Defend the three – While we pointed out that Duke can get hot from three, it cannot be stated enough that the Longhorns love to let one opponent have the game of his life from long range. Texas cannot let Singler or Scheyer burn them for a bevy of three-pointers if they hope to pull the upset tonight.

Quality guard play – The post-season has been a stage for the emergence of Varez Ward as a consistent slasher who can create off the dribble. But the Horns will also need Balbay and Mason to continue to attack the paint and draw defenders away from Pittman and James. This attack worked wonders in the first half against Kansas, and the Longhorns should look to do the same against the smaller Blue Devils.

It should also be noted that Gary Johnson is questionable for tonight’s game thanks to back spasms, and on Saturday team reps put his chances of playing at 50/50.