The Longhorns are off to a rocking 7-0 start this season, the third time they’ve reached that mark in the last five seasons. While they haven’t played any particularly great teams, their strength of schedule is currently the second-toughest of the nation’s fifteen remaining unbeaten teams. That SOS score will definitely take a hit after this afternoon’s game with the Texas State Bobcats, but the Longhorns can rest assured that they will still be amongst the unblemished.

The Bobcats are returning seven players from last year’s squad, but have only two seniors on the roster. They lost their three best players to graduation, but signed a trio of juco transfers that has fourth-year coach Doug Davalos excited about his team’s prospects this season. Unfortunately for Davalos and the Bobcats, not many others hold those same expectations. Texas State was predicted to finish at or near the bottom of the Southland Conference’s West Division by most media outlets.

By the numbers

So far this season, the numbers haven’t been pretty for the Bobcats. If the 3-6 start isn’t bad enough, their defense and sloppy ballhandling have fans pulling out their hair. Texas State has allowed teams to hit 48.9% of their three-point attempts so far this year, better than only one other team in all of Division I basketball. Against a Texas team that has a bevy of solid outside shooters, the lack of perimeter defense could lead to a nightmare situation for the ‘Cats.

On offense, Texas State can’t seem to hang on to the basketball. They turn it over more than once every four possessions, which led to nauseating performances against Arizona State and Cal State Northridge. In those two games, the Bobcats coughed it up a combined 57 times. That kind of performance would embarrass a Little Dribblers coach.

Texas State runs an up-tempo style of play that is actually fifth-quickest in the country to date. Having so many possessions per game certainly helps the Bobcats make up for the fact that they lose the ball so often, but against efficient offensive teams like Texas, that style can only lead to bigger blowouts. The Longhorns and Bobcats have met all three years that Coach Davalos has been on the sideline, and while last year’s game was respectably close, his up-tempo style has been a boon for Texas. In those three meetings, the Longhorns have averaged 91 points.

Meet the Bobcats

The frenetic pace of Texas State basketball means that Coach Davalos is constantly throwing fresh bodies on the floor. He has eleven different players who average at least thirteen minutes per game, and all of them have earned at least one start. In most years, that could give his team an edge in depth against Texas, but this season the Longhorns have just as many players, and all are more talented.

So far, power forward Cameron Johnson has been the offensive leader for Texas State. He posted a double-double against UT-Pan American last Saturday, and is averaging 12.3 points and 7.9 rebounds through the first nine games. Johnson can post up and score, but is still comfortable in the open, transition game that Texas State loves. Against the number one defense in the country, he’ll have his work cut out for him.

J.B. Conley is another forward who has quickly made a mark after transferring from Temple College. While he was a small forward in his two seasons of junior college, Davalos expects him to fill a variety of roles for Texas State. So far, the biggest role he has filled is three-point marksman. Conley has knocked down 52% of his attempts from behind the arc, which has led him to nearly eleven points per game.

Senior forward John Ryback is one of just two returning starters for the Bobcats, and his leadership is desperately needed on this year’s team. He has responded early, starting eight games and averaging 10.6 points per contest. At just 6’7″, he’s going to have a tough time against the bigger Texas frontcourt, but his ability to knock down the three-ball could allow him to draw out bigger defenders and level the playing field. This season, he’s hitting on 40% of his long-range attempts.

Uriel Segura is another juco transfer for Texas State who has also made a quick start. He is a 6’3″ combo guard who Coach Davalos hopes will give him the flexibility to have two point guards on the floor at once. Segura is a pass-first player whose 3.4 assists per game lead the team, but he also knows how to shoot the basketball. He’s averaging just a shade under ten points per game and is practically automatic from the line.

In his sophomore campaign, guard Josh Bowman is bouncing back nicely from an injury-riddled first year. He’s firmly entrenched in the core rotation, and has even started in six games. He’s averaging nine points per game, but has been having trouble shooting so far this season. In fact, his 57% success rate at the free throw stripe might actually make him a candidate to transfer to Texas.

Rounding out that core rotation is junior point guard Ryan White. The Longhorns had a lot of problems with the speed of the Long Beach State guards on Monday night, so White could enjoy a breakout game if he attacks off the dribble and pushes for transition buckets. At just 5’11”, he could be a defensive liability on the perimeter against a taller Texas backcourt, but his quick hands will still be a point of concern for the Longhorns. He had better than a steal per game last season, and is swiping nearly two a game this year.

Dylan Hale and Tony Bishop are both newcomers who grab a solid share of minutes for Texas State. Hale is the team’s lone freshman, hailing from Minnesota. He’s a left-handed defensive specialist who’s already playing 18 minutes per game, but Coach Davalos expects even greater things in his next three seasons. Bishop is a 6’6″ juco transfer from Richland College who boasts a freakish 7-foot wingspan. The lengthy wing player can cause some havoc on defense, but is averaging just eight points per game on the offensive end.

Perhaps the most important bench player for Texas State is Cameroon-born forward Emmanuel Bidias a Moute, who grabs over five rebounds a night despite seeing the court for just fifteen minutes in each game. Against the bigger Texas Longhorns, the Bobcats are going to need that presence on the glass from Bidias a Moute, and he’ll likely see more action than usual.

Junior center Jonathan Sloan and sophomore guard Roshun Jackson are the other two players who see the floor consistently for Texas State, although neither has done anything exceptional this year Last year, Sloan struggled with injury and illness, while Jackson played a bit role from the bench.

What to look for

We know the Bobcats like to run, and from the looks of Monday night’s game against Long Beach State, the Longhorns have no trouble doing that. Texas is significantly bigger than Texas State, so they should have a commanding advantage on the glass. That should lead to a lot of empty possessions for the Bobcats, and tons of second-chance opportunities if Texas happens to be missing its shots.

When not stifling Texas State on the boards, the Longhorns should also be forcing a ton of turnovers. The Bobcats don’t take care of the ball, and on Monday night the Longhorns made hay off their opponent’s miscues. Texas scored 33 points off turnovers against Long Beach State, and should enjoy another gaudy output in that category this afternoon.

The final thing we’ll be watching tonight is whether or not Dogus Balbay continues to shine. This kind of up-and-down game is made for a thoughtful floor general with great court vision, and that’s what Balbay has brought to the table so far this year. If he continues to perform at that high of a level, and can keep defenses honest with any semblance of a short- to mid-range game, Texas will be ridiculously good. We’re crossing our fingers that he has another career day in this shootout.

Final notes

As always, tickets remain for this non-conference patsy, so take a break from the Christmas shopping and come see the Longhorns. You’ll even be treated to a return visit from 90’s Texas star Terrence Rencher, who is one of the assistants on the Texas State sidelines. If things get too ugly, perhaps he’ll even tear off the suit and try to play in one of those hideous grey, orange, and white uniforms that Tom Penders’ Runnin’ Horns wore last decade.

For those staying at home, the game is available on cable in Texas on Fox Sports Southwest, while fans outside of the Lone Star State can catch it as a part of the ESPN Full Court package.