It’s been a tragic fall for the Texas Longhorns this year. From the school’s first No. 1 ranking back in January, to its nearly-unprecedented slide out of the Top 25, the journey to the bottom has been long and arduous. Texas lost nine of its last sixteen games this season, including a three-game sweep at the hands of the Baylor Bears, a team the Horns had beaten 24 consecutive times prior to March of 2009.

But all of that means nothing in the grand scheme of things. That’s because the champion of NCAA men’s basketball is crowned at the end of a tournament. A tournament that levels the playing field and makes the last three weekends of the year the most important of the entire season. From 16-seed Vermont to overall No. 1 seed Kansas, every team has championship dreams. All it takes is six straight wins.

While the chances are slim for the Longhorns to put together a run like that, there’s certainly no denying that this team has the talent to at least be in the conversation. So, for the most optimistic members of the burnt-orange faithful, this could be seen as the first step in a larger journey. It’s win-and-advance, time, my friends. And so, with that in mind, our keys to earning that win……and advancing.

1) Maintain composure – The Longhorns are facing a Wake Forest team that has an excellent defense, particularly on the interior. Big man Chas McFarland and sophomore center Tony Woods are well-disciplined post defenders who play tall without leaving their feet. The Longhorns will have a hard time scoring inside, especially if they are relying on whistles to bail them out on poorly-chosen shots inside.

In the past, Texas has often become frustrated against good interior defenses and settled for a ton of outside shots, most of which were misses. The Longhorns must attack the inside with dribble penetration and good ball movement, and can not simply wait on the perimeter. If Justin Mason, J’Covan Brown, and Jordan Hamilton can force the Wake defense to react, and then actually make the extra pass, things should open up inside. Settle for outside shots, however, and the Longhorns will be playing right into the hands of the Deacs.

2) Pressure the ball – Senior guard Ishmael “Ish” Smith is not an exceptionally quick guard, but he’s a guy who confuses defenses with his hesitation dribble. His strength lies in pull-up jumpers and floaters, which is especially bizarre when you consider that he’s just a 50% free-throw shooter. Smith isn’t a big guy who finishes strong at the rim, so if he manages to force his way inside, Texas must make him earn the points. In addition, he loves to leave the ball just hanging in the air on his hesitation moves, so if the Longhorns defense has active hands, it could equal extra possessions and points.

That extra pressure shouldn’t be exclusively applied to Smith, however, as Wake Forest turns it over on more than 21% of their possessions. If the Longhorns can force Wake Forest into mistakes, it not only limits the Deac’s opportunities to score, but it ties in nicely with our first key of the game. The best way to score against a well-coached defense is to get it in the bucket before they even set up. If Texas can get down the court and score in transition before Wake sets up the half-court D, it will greatly increase the chances of a Longhorn win.

3) Limit the boards – Wake’s offensive efficiency is in the top third of the nation, but their field goal percentage is near the bottom. The reason behind the disparity? Strong offensive rebounding allows the Demon Deacons a ton of extra possessions, which typically allows them miss a ton of easy looks before finally scoring on a tip. (Sound familiar, Texas fans?) If the Longhorns can secure the defensive rebounds, it will force Wake to be much, much more efficient with the basketball.

One final stat

As we head to the arena, here is one final stat to chew on during the night sessions. The Longhorns are one of just three teams in this year’s NCAA tournament to have won a first-round game in each of the last four seasons. When things get dicey tonight, as they likely will, keep that fact in mind. And if that stat doesn’t give you confidence, just watch this video of McFarland getting tackled by a Clemson student…

As always, you can follow our Twitter updates from the arena during tonight’s games. We’ll be back in the A.M. with a post-game…and hopefully a look ahead to a second-round opponent.