Just three weeks ago, Texas was the talk of the college basketball. The Longhorns stampeded through a brutal five-game stretch that included four games against ranked opponents, winning them all by double-digits. They ended Kansas’ seemingly interminable home-court winning streak at 69 games, and shot to the top line of every bracketologist’s S-curve.

The last two weekends changed all of that. Texas dropped back-to-back road games against Nebraska and Colorado, two teams mired in the middle of the Big 12 standings. While losing on the road in a major conference is never a shock, the manner in which the Longhorns stumbled in Lincoln and Boulder has fans concerned. Issues that plagued the team last season have suddenly reappeared, and Texas seems to have lost its killer instinct.

With two conference losses now on the ledger, Texas has lost its edge in the conference race. The Longhorns and Jayhawks are starting the final week of the season in a dead heat, but the two teams seem to be headed in decidedly different directions. If Texas has any designs on a conference title, they must bounce back against a nasty Kansas State team tonight. If Texas comes out with a stagnant offense and lackadaisical defense once more, it could be the harbinger of a very short March for the Horns.

By the numbers

As always, Frank Martin has his Wildcats playing excellent defense. Nationally, their adjusted defensive efficiency of 0.911 points per possession is ranked 25th, but they are just as strong in the tough Big 12. K-State is third in the league behind Texas and Kansas, allowing just 1.009 points each time down the floor.

The most surprising number for Kansas State’s defense is their turnover percentage. In a league with the high-pressure Missouri Tigers, the Wildcats actually have the best TO% mark in conference play. K-State has forced conference opponents into miscues on 22.7% of their possessions, and has forced turnover percentages north of 25% in six different league games.

Offensively, Kansas State uses an excellent frontcourt to fuel their scoring. While the Wildcats have an effective field goal percentage that is right in the middle of Division I hoops, their adjusted offensive efficiency is 57th nationally. The ‘Cats score 1.097 points each time down the floor, thanks in large part to the fact that their big men reclaim the misses. Kansas State’s 41.7% offensive rebounding percentage is fifth-best in the country.

Tonight’s game is bound to be a physical one, which is terrible news for fans of both teams. Kansas State and Texas are almost equally horrible when they get to the free throw line, with the Wildcats hitting 64.3% of their attempts and the Longhorns sinking 64.2% of theirs. While that means that interior fouling won’t hurt Texas as often on the scoreboard, their lack of frontcourt depth is something to be concerned with.

Meet the Wildcats

It has been a long and tortuous road for Coach Martin and the Wildcats this year. In the off-season, they lost big man Dominique Sutton when he transferred to UNC Central to be closer to his children. Then, after a troubling non-conference run in which Coach Martin openly questioned his team’s leadership, the Wildcats also lost Freddy Asprilla and Wally Judge to mid-season transfers.

With Jacob Pullen and Curtis Kelly both earning suspensions for taking discounts at a clothing store, and Pullen later declaring he wouldn’t play if the team was in the NIT, it has been a disjointed season to say the least.

Despite all of that, a huge home upset of Kansas two weeks ago seems to have righted the Wildcat ship. K-State has reeled off four straight wins, and if not for a loss by mere milliseconds in Boulder, the Wildcats would be riding a seven-game streak heading into tonight’s game.

As any college basketball fan knows, Jacob Pullen is the big man on campus in Manhattan. A preseason All-American, his career-high 38 points against Kansas fueled the Valentine’s Day upset. Since then, he’s averaged 26 points in wins over Oklahoma, Missouri, and Nebraska.

Pullen is a frightening match-up for any team because he can score in a variety of ways. He has an incredibly quick release on the catch-and-shoot, so the Wildcats are constantly running screens off the ball to free him up for the jumper. When Pullen gets open behind the arc, you can practically put the points on the scoreboard. In his last four games, the senior is shooting a blazing 65.2% behind the arc.

Unfortunately, the Longhorns can’t simply play him as a catch-and-shoot threat. With the ball in his hands, Pullen’s hesitation moves and powerful first step make him a constant threat to get to the rack. Even though he’s a smaller guard, he has the strength and athleticism to finish over and around bigger players, and easily scores through contact.

Kansas State’s other senior leader is big man Curtis Kelly, who came to Manhattan after a brief stint at Connecticut. He is a force inside, where he constantly comes down with offensive boards and sinks bunnies. Kelly is also a threat to score off the midrange jumper, though, and that ability allows him to pull opposing forwards out of the paint and open up driving lanes for Pullen and the other guards.

The main knock on Kelly’s game, though, is his raw emotion. He easily lets foul calls get in his head, and it can affect the other aspects of his game. If Kelly is clicking, he’s a tough player to stop. But frustrate him with the whistle or some solid post defense, and his performance typically goes downhill.

Joining Kelly in the frontcourt is Jamar Samuels, who was the Big 12’s Sixth Man of the Year last season. He’s a skilled offensive forward, who has the ability to face up post defenders and blow by them on the dribble. Samuels also can score with his back to the basket, as he often backs his man right down the lane for an easy two. On the glass, Samuels is one of the team’s best rebounders, claiming more than five boards a night.

The biggest surprise for the Wildcats this season has been the emergence of Rodney McGruder. An athletic swingman, the 6’4″ sophomore contributes all over the floor. He has a great three-point shot — it was his three-pointer that was just fractions of a second late in Boulder — but he can also body up bigger players inside. He leads the team with more than six rebounds per game, and is the team’s second-leading scorer with more than 11 points.

McGruder is a valuable hybrid player because while he contributes inside, he also has the handles and speed to attack from the wings or get out in transition. If Texas is able to limit the damage from Pullen tonight, it will be up to McGruder to pick up the slack for the Wildcats.

In the backcourt, the Wildcats have had another pleasant surprise from freshman Will Spradling. The son of a coach, he is a heady player who is averaging more than six points a game thanks in large part to his ability to read defenses and make smart cuts without the ball. Spradling also has a nice three-point shot, but his slow release makes it easier for defenses to close out on him behind the arc. Despite that, Spradling has still made 36% of his threes this season.

Another smart Wildcat is Shane Southwell, a sound defender who is practically a coach on the court. He can often be seen shouting out instructions to his teammates on the defensive end, or even physically pushing them in the right direction when things are breaking down. Offensively, he’s a non-threat, but is useful in setting screens to free Pullen or the cutting bigs. While he won’t fill up a stat sheet, Southwell’s high basketball IQ has earned him 12 starts in conference play.

Although the Wildcats have lost some players over the last few months, they still have a quality bench. In addition to Spradling, Coach Martin also employs a pair of quick guards in Martavious Irving and Nick Russell. Both can easily beat defenders off the dribble and have a knack for finding their way to the rim when the offense is stalling out. While the two guards each play less than 15 minutes a night in Big 12 games, they will likely chip in a few layups tonight.

Also coming off the bench is seven-footer Jordan Henriquez-Roberts, who has made massive strides in his sophomore year. As a freshman, he often looked stiff and awkward with the ball, but now is providing a few points and rebounds off the bench every night. At 7’0″, the one thing that has always come naturally to Henriquez-Roberts is post defense, and as a result he has a team-high 34 blocks despite playing less than 13 minutes per game.

Keys to the game

The biggest issue the Longhorns will face tonight is their inability to keep opponents off of the offensive glass. Kansas State is one of the best teams in the country at reclaiming their own misses, so Texas must limit second chance points in this one. In losses to Connecticut and Nebraska, the Horns allowed their opponents to snag more than 43% of their missed shots. If K-State can do the same thing tonight, it could push them to a huge road upset.

If the Longhorns want to get back on the right track, Jordan Hamilton must bounce back. In his last four games, Hamilton shot just 31% from the field, and was 8-of-24 behind the arc in losses to Nebraska and Colorado. If Hamilton can resist the urge to get into a game of one-upmanship with Pullen and instead take smart shots within the offense, his points will come naturally. If not, it’s very possible that the sophomore star could cripple the Texas offense.

On the other side of the ball, the Longhorns must communicate on defense. Kansas State will constantly set screens, oftentimes multiple ones just seconds apart, all in an effort to free up Pullen for the open looks. The Longhorns have to be on the same page when it comes to handling these screens, and they must also be alert to offer help defense when the K-State guards penetrate off the dribble.

Texas’ defense looked like a sieve on Saturday afternoon, and the Wildcats will have a field day if there is a repeat performance tonight. The Longhorns must get back to the sound team defense that carried them through the first five weeks of conference play.