Fresno State Bulldogs (0-0) at RV/#24 Texas Longhorns (0-0)
Frank Erwin Center | Austin, TX | Tip: 7 P.M. CT | TV: Longhorn Network
LRT Consecutive Game #221

For most college basketball programs, a rebuilding year consists of a losing record, numerous growing pains, and simmering discontent in the fanbase. For Rick Barnes and the Texas Longhorns, the 2011-12 campaign was certainly a rebuilding year. With just one returning starter and a whole host of freshmen on the roster, making the NCAA tournament for a 14th-straight year seemed to be a pipe dream. Somehow, Barnes and the Longhorns were not only able to avoid a losing record, but even managed to squeak into the NCAA field once more.

While Texas finished above .500, the Horns weren’t able to skip out on the growing pains and fan discontent. With a freshman-laden roster, Texas repeatedly fell short in one- and two-possession games, failing to execute at crunch time. Although the Longhorns overcame those difficulties and defied all reasonable expectations by making the NCAA tournament, fans ignored the short-term storyline and instead focused on the recent trend of post-season disappointments. Fair or not, the Texas fanbase has long been known as a “What have you done for me lately?” type of crowd, and the Longhorns have not advanced past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2008. Although Barnes has built Texas into a nationally-relevant program and recruits at the highest levels, critics point to the lack of trophies inside Denton Cooley Pavilion.

Rick Barnes oversees another young squad this season
(Photo credit: Orlin Wagner/Associated Press)

That attitude puts additional pressure on this season, especially when combined with the struggles of the football team. It’s no secret that Texas is a pigskin state, and when Mack Brown was having success on the gridiron in the late 2000’s, the corresponding success on the hardwood was just an added bonus for the school’s fans. With message boards and radio shows already filled with negativity over the current football season, Coach Barnes and the Longhorns will be under the microscope of an already-irritated fanbase.

As if those pressures weren’t enough on their own, the Horns will have to start this season without sophomore point guard Myck Kabongo. Last month, Yahoo! Sports was the first to report on an NCAA investigation into Kabongo’s relationship with agent Rich Paul and whether or not he received improper benefits on a trip to workout with former Longhorn Tristan Thompson in Akron, Ohio. The NCAA has still not ruled on the matter, and Texas will not play Kabongo until the governing body hands down its decision.

Starting in his place will be 5’10” point guard Javan Felix, an ESPN Top 100 recruit from St. Augustine in New Orleans. While it would be unreasonable to expect immediate greatness from the freshman, the early buzz on Felix is exciting. The length of Kabongo’s absence is still up in the air at this point, so getting major minutes for Felix in low-risk games against Fresno State, Coppin State, and Chaminade will be huge for his development. If Kabongo is still unavailable when the Longhorns start facing foes from BCS conferences, the freshman point guard — and Texas — will truly be tested.

The Horns will also hit the floor tonight without sophomore Jaylen Bond, the team’s most tenacious rebounder. The Pennsylvania native injured his ankle in practice this week and will not be available against the Bulldogs. As a freshman, Bond led the team with offensive and defensive rebounding rates of 13.3% and 21.4%, respectively, but did not play enough minutes to qualify for the national rankings.

Texas hopes that freshman Cameron Ridley is able to make up for that presence on the glass. A 6’9″ center, Ridley was a McDonald’s All-American and consensus top-twenty recruit, so he’s expected to immediately make a mark on the 40 Acres. He’s got the size and the physical tools to make a splash, so fans are hopeful that he can quickly adjust to the more competitive college game.

Ridley and Felix are just two of seven freshman joining the Longhorns this season, once again making them one of the youngest teams in the country. Big man Prince Ibeh brings quickness and athleticism to the table, giving the Horns a defensive presence that can alter the game inside. Greek import Ioannis Papapetrou, already nicknamed “Papi” by Kabongo and his teammates, should help to stretch the floor with his European background. There’s not much known about his skills at this point, so it will be interesting to watch his role develop throughout the course of the season.

Connor Lammert and Demarcus Holland are two freshmen who aren’t expected to make major contributions in their first year. Lammert is a the younger brother of Texas Tech’s Clark Lammert, and he’s another skilled-shooting forward who can help stretch the defense. Holland is a combo guard who can put it on the floor to generate points, but he struggled from outside in high school. If Kabongo is out for an extended stretch or misses the season entirely, Holland will provide some extra depth in the backcourt, although he is much more useful at the two.

The seventh member of this year’s freshman class is Danny Newsome, a walk-on from Langham Creek outside the Beltway in Houston. While he’s not going to provide meaningful minutes this season, he could perhaps develop into a new sidekick for the always-entertaining Melchionni Report.

With so many fresh faces on the roster, the success of this year’s team will likely ride on the development of the five-man sophomore class. Although Kabongo and Bond won’t be taking part in tonight’s game, all eyes will be on Julien Lewis, Jonathan Holmes, and Sheldon McClellan to see how much progress they made in the offseason.

Lewis was a very streaky shooter as a sophomore, so much so that you could generally tell what type of night he was going to have after just one or two shots. While it’d certainly be nice if he developed into a dead-eye over the summer, it’s much more reasonable to hope that he will make better decisions this year on nights when he is struggling. If he can defer to teammates on his off nights, perhaps the Longhorns can avoid some of the 1-for-10 performances like he delivered at Missouri last year.

Holmes quietly provided a lot of good minutes last season, and his rebounding really improved down the stretch of Big 12 play. If he can continue to clean up the offensive misses and perhaps improve the three-point shot he liked to test out last year, Holmes could be a key leader on this young squad.

Sheldon McClellan could break through as a sophomore
(Photo credit: Michael Thomas/Associated Press)

The most important sophomore on the roster, though, is McClellan. Fans saw flashes of his brilliance last year, when he would take over a game for just a few possessions at a time. Conventional wisdom holds that players make their greatest leap in the summer following their freshmen season, so Texas fans have high hopes that McClellan is going to be an unstoppable scorer this year. If he has the confidence and killer instinct that Coach Barnes has been trying to instill in him from Day One, Sheldon could be a difference-maker in the Big 12.

Coach-speak aside, the numbers seem to paint an excellent picture for McClellan, as well. John Pudner is a political professional who imported the Sabermetrics WAR (Wins Above Replacement player) formula to college basketball and named his new measurement “Value Add.” His entire player database is available online, and it offers my fellow stat-nerds hours of enjoyment.

The most interesting aspect of Pudner’s analysis, as it pertains to Texas, is the massive benefit he projects the Longhorns will receive from McClellan this season. Based on minutes, usage rate, and efficiency numbers from last season, Sheldon is ranked as the 37th most-valuable player this year. That’s the third-highest ranking in the entire Big 12, checking in just behind Jeff Withey of Kansas and Rodney McGruder of Kansas State. If McClellan can come anywhere close to making that kind of an impact this season, the Longhorns will surprise a lot of folks across the nation.