11.09.09
Posted by Ryan Clark at 12:21AM

The first games of the 2009-10 season will finally tip off just hours from now, marking the start of the greatest five months of the year. And while most first-week games are of the snooze-fest variety, the simple thought of sneakers squeaking on hardwood and student section chants echoing in gyms already has our hearts all aflutter.

The preseason excitement surrounding this year’s Longhorn team is abnormally high in a city that typically lives and breathes Texas Football until early January. And although the hoops squad won’t take the floor for another six days, we can’t wait any longer to take our pre-season look at Rick Barnes’ latest bunch, a team that many pundits predict will be playing in Indianapolis at the Final Four.

Rick Barnes can’t complain about a lack of depth
(Photo credit: Donna McWilliam/Associated Press)

Deeper Than Ever

If there’s one thing the 2009-2010 Longhorns will lack this season, it’s enough of those cushy, padded chairs lining the Texas bench. Rick Barnes has filled up the locker room this year, listing 16 players on his opening day roster. And while walk-ons Andrew Dick and Dean Melchionni likely won’t find many minutes on a team this loaded, there is no doubt that every one of the other fourteen Longhorns would contribute at most D-1 universities.

And not only does Barnes have a bevy of athletes to choose from, but they bring a ton of experience to the table. Dexter Pittman, Damion James, and Justin Mason provide senior leadership and a strong motivation to reach the Final Four after falling just one game short of that goal two seasons ago. In addition, Gary Johnson is set to take another step forward as he begins his junior campaign, while sophomore guard Varez Ward showed flashes of brilliance down the stretch last year.

Shoring up the backcourt

While last year’s Texas guards had their share of issues, some fresh faces will immediately improve that aspect of the team. With J’Covan Brown finally past his NCAA Clearinghouse issues and Florida transfer Jai Lucas eligible in December, the Horns have a pair of guards who can not only handle the rock, but score with ease — something that limited the effectiveness of Mason and Dogus Balbay last year.

Freshman Avery Bradley is already flying high

Freshman Avery Bradley comes to campus as a McDonald’s All-American, and was pegged as the nation’s top recruit by numerous ranking services. He is an excellent shooting guard who will spread out defenses, but also has great handles and can fill in at the one. In fact, Bradley was even in attendance at the DeRon Williams Point Guard Skills Academy this summer, where he was the only freshman.

Lost in the excitement surrounding the incoming guards are the trio of returning ballhandlers — Ward, Mason, and Balbay. While none of the three provide the offensive threat that Brown, Lucas, or Bradley do, all of the returning guards are stingy defenders. And on a team coached by the defensive-minded Rick Barnes, that is sure to earn all three of them a fair share of minutes.

Length on the wings

Texas has often been outsized by opposing guards and wings, which was never more evident than in the aforementioned Elite Eight loss to Memphis in 2008. The longer, more athletic Tigers absolutely manhandled the Longhorns, exploiting their height advantage as the fluid Dribble-Drive Motion offense racked up the points for Coach Cal.

That won’t be a problem anytime soon for Texas, as a pair of freshman swingmen adds about 14 feet of wingspan to the Longhorn roster. The 6-foot, 7-inch Jordan Hamilton has been compared to Paul Pierce by a handful of pundits, and is also being tabbed as an excellent NBA prospect before even playing his first collegiate game. With Hamilton in the mix, senior leader James should be freed up to play more inside, and should prevent opponents from drawing Damion away from the defensive glass with their more-athletic wings.

Shawn Williams was the first member of the freshman class to commit, all the way back in August of 2008. But with both Hamilton and Bradley signing their LOIs later, this solid swingman has earned a lot less ink heading into the season. While Hamilton and James are certainly going to command a bulk of the minutes, we’ve been told that Williams is one of the most natural three-point gunners to step foot on the Forty Acres. That’s quite the compliment at a school that just enjoyed four years of A.J. Abrams’ long-range skills.

Power in the paint

While the Longhorns have playmakers in the backcourt and on the wings, the emergence of Dexter Pittman at the end of last season gives them a legitimate double-double threat every single night. Big Dex will have to keep himself out of foul trouble this year, something that has been a problem in the past. If Dexter is sidelined due to whistles, there is no one else on the roster who can fill his size-18 shoes.


(Photo credit: Harry Cabluck/Associated Press)

Gary Johnson will demand attention from defenses

That’s not to say that Texas doesn’t have a ton of other bigs who can clean the glass and dump in easy buckets. Gary Johnson is another consistent threat to post double-doubles, and if he can stay injury free this season, his tenacious play could earn nationwide attention. Despite his small size, Johnson is still a beast inside, and has no problem drawing slower bigs away from the basket before attacking the rim. The main thing Gary will need to avoid this season is the “black hole” mentality that led to nearly automatic shots once he touched the rock last year. On a team this talented, he can’t afford to steal looks from his teammates by wasting possessions.

Beyond the two playmakers, Barnes also has a handful of guys off the bench who will likely contribute in their short stints on the court. Alexis Wangmene is primed for a breakout season after playing excellent basketball in the Maui Invitational last November. Unfortunately, the big Cameroonian was injured for the year and never had a chance to build on his performance in Hawai’i.

Clint Chapman is also likely to see an increased role this season, with Connor Atchley departing after his senior year. Coach Barnes often talks about Clint’s basketball acumen in interviews, so perhaps this is the year Longhorn fans will see it translate from the practice court to game play. The role of the other Ivory Tower, Matt Hill, is still a huge question mark, as the junior played limited minutes in a majority of the games last season. With even more talent on the roster this year, his already-limited playing time could suffer another hit.

Gunning for Indianapolis

The mark of a Rick Barnes team is one that truly evolves from the start of November until the end of March. Not only is he constantly tinkering with rotations and minutes, but his players almost always improve over the course of a season. With three highly-touted freshmen on the roster and two new faces in the backcourt, the potential for growth is limitless. Combine that with senior leadership and the rigors of a schedule that includes Kansas, Michigan State, North Carolina, Connecticut, and Oklahoma, and you have a team that will be battle-tested and ready to make noise come March.

3.21.09
Posted by Ryan Clark at 10:22AM

[7] Texas Longhorns (23-11) vs. [2] Duke Blue Devils (29-6)
Greensboro Coliseum | Greensboro, NC | Tip: Approx. 7:15 CDT | TV: CBS

The Texas Longhorns and Duke Blue Devils meet for the fourth time in the history of the two programs, but tonight’s match-up comes with much more on the line. While Duke has won all three previous “neutral” site meetings between the two teams, none of those wins came in the NCAA tournament. Tonight’s winner, though, will move on to a berth in the Sweet 16 and a meeting with UCLA or Villanova.

Texas comes into this one playing some very good basketball, if you can choose to overlook the first two-and-a-half minutes of the first-round game against Minnesota. And considering the way the rest of that game turned out, I can certainly choose to do that. A.J. Abrams went absolutely bananas from behind the arc, knocking down eight three-pointers en route to a 26-point night. The reason the perimeter was so wide open for A.J. was the dominating play of big man Dexter Pittman, who logged another double-double with 17 points and 11 rebounds and forced the Golden Gophers to switch to a zone in hopes of shutting down the post.

The play of those two men will be huge in tonight’s contest, as the Longhorns are facing a Duke team which lacks a true inside presence. The Blue Devils love to double down on bigger post players to mitigate the disadvantage, which means that A.J. must be hitting from outside. If Abrams is cold and Duke can contain Pittman with their doubling on the block, Texas will have a very rough time winning this game.

By the numbers

The Blue Devils have a very efficient offense, but what makes them scary is that they have an equally efficient defense to go along with it. Duke ranks 5th in the nation in offensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy’s number-crunching, and their defense checks in at 16th in the country. Being so strong on both sides of the ball led the Blue Devils to a menacing average margin of victory of 14.5 during regular-season play.

Those strong defensive numbers are fueled by an aggressive man-to-man defense that forces steals and pushes opponents out of their comfort zone. Duke ranked second in the ACC this season with nearly nine steals a game, and they forced opponents into just under 17 miscues per contest. While the Longhorns have actually handled pressure fairly well this season, they have had some issues with unforced turnovers. Tonight, Texas simply can’t afford to be dropping passes and rebounds or getting whistled for three-second calls and travels.

Kyle Singler is one of Duke’s three-point threats
(Photo credit: Haraz N. Ghanbari/Associated Press)

On the glass, Duke is nothing spectacular. As mentioned earlier, they lack a true post presence, so bigger teams are able to easily abuse them on the boards. But the Blue Devil players are ridiculously quick and hustle all over the floor, so they make up for it by grabbing a bunch of hustle rebounds that they have no business corralling. Their offensive rebounding numbers actually put them in the top 25 nationally, so the Longhorns can’t afford to be lazy when they box out following Duke misses. On the year, the Blue Devils posted a +3 rebounding margin per game.

Duke loves to slash to the basket, force the defense to react, and then move the ball around to find the open man. That has resulted in a lot of open three-point looks and seemingly endless runs where the Blue Devils torch their opponents from long range. But what many fans forget is that Duke has missed a lot of three-pointers as well, and their 35.2% success rate from behind the arc barely puts them in the top third of NCAA teams. Texas has had quite a problem letting teams get hot from long range, though, so they cannot afford to push their luck by giving easy looks to the Duke gunners.

The Blue Devils also love to draw the charge, so Pittman, Damion James, and Varez Ward will all need to watch their control with the ball. All three players have picked up more than their fair share of offensive fouls, and with Duke flopping all over the floor on the slightest bump, they are likely to pick up a few more tonight. These three guys will have to be careful and aware of their position on the court.

The starting five

The Duke lineup is an incredibly interesting one, as Coach K has been tinkering with rotations and starters for much of the season. Throughout the post-season, he has spread out the minutes even further, giving some of his bench players just as much time on the court as a few of the starters.

Guard Elliott Williams is one Blue Devil who is sharing a lot of the work load with other talented backcourt players off the bench. He is a speedy player who has great ups and hustles all over the floor, and he plays tough, hard-nosed defense that is incredibly popular with the Blue Devil faithful. Williams is only a freshman who averages about 15 minutes per game, but his role has expanded throughout ACC play and into the post-season. He’s going to make a few plays tonight that cause you to do a double-take, but look for Williams to become a true breakout star in the next few years.

Joining him in the backcourt is junior Jon Scheyer, a 6’5″ string bean whose length could cause some problems for the shorter Texas guards. Scheyer is a prototypical Duke player, the scrappy white guy with a deadly shot and a knack for hitting the clutch bucket every time your team is trying to make a run. The Blue Devils are at their best when he is hitting from long range, where he’s leading the team at a 38.8% clip. If the Longhorns let Scheyer heat up, they can likely kiss their upset chances goodbye.

The lanky forward Kyle Singler is Duke’s other key long-range gunner, hitting 38% of his long-range attempts. He’s another scrappy, hustling Blue Devil, and his 7.7 rebounds per game lead the team. Even though he’s often found taking jumpers from beyond the perimeter, Singler always crashes to the glass and punishes teams who are lazy at boxing out on the long J.

Gerald Henderson is an inside-out threat
(Photo credit: Dave Martin/Associated Press)

Junior swingman Gerald Henderson is an exciting player to watch, but he could very likely frustrate Texas fans tonight. He’s excellent at creating off the dribble and slashing to the rim, but he’s still an effective jump shooter as well. The Longhorns will find success against Henderson if they can head him off at the arc and force him to take long-range jumpers. While he can knock them down, Henderson is a much better finisher at the iron, and Texas can’t afford to give him a ton of points (and fouls) inside.

Lance Thomas is one Blue Devil who isn’t going to prove his worth on the stat sheet. Like most of his teammates, he is a hustle guy who annoys opponents by seemingly existing in eight different places on the court at once. But since Thomas only averages five points and three boards a game, so you won’t be reading about his huge role in tomorrow’s newspaper. If you watch the game, though, you’ll see him causing havoc with his pressure defense and gritty determination.

Off the bench

The real X-factor in tonight’s game is going to be big man Brian Zoubek. At 7-foot, 1-inch, he could be the best answer that the Blue Devils have to Pittman inside. Zoubek only averages about 12 minutes per game, though, so it will be interesting to see if Coach K elects to give him more minutes at the expense of a better offensive player. In addition to shutting down Pittman, Zoubek also changes the game simply with his length down low. He forces guards to take different angles and adjust their shots, so giving him more minutes could also make Dogus Balbay, Justin Mason, and Varez Ward less effective when they try to penetrate off the dribble.

Guard Greg Paulus is a selfless player who has been relegated to the bench in his senior year after being a team leader for most of his time on campus. He provides heady play when he’s on the court, and has more unbridled passion and energy in a 6’1″ frame than I think I’ve ever seen. He’s not a big-time scorer, although he’s a serviceable long-range threat, but his on-court leadership and ability to manage the game are huge.

One reason Paulus has seen a lot less playing time is the emergence of Nolan Smith, an off guard who has been asked to add point duties to his job description. He’s learning the one on the fly and is doing an impressive job of it, while averaging about five points and two assists per game. He’s an incredibly quick guard who loves to attack the rim, and when teams foul him on the layups, he makes them pay with a solid 85% success rate at the line.

David McClure is the only other Blue Devil who is likely to get a significant chunk of minutes tonight, but like Thomas, he is an intangibles guy who runs all over the court. Against Binghamton on Thursday night, McClure scored only two points in 16 minutes, but he added three rebounds, two steals, and a host of other hustle plays that don’t show up in the box score.

Texas needs another huge game from Dexter Pittman
(Photo credit: Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press)

Keys to the game

Let Dexter dominate – As we mentioned in the lead, the Blue Devils have proven to be soft inside and big men have eaten them up this season. If Dexter is scoring a ton of points, not only does Texas reap the benefits on the scoreboard, but they also will enjoy the added benefit of more open looks for Abrams and James.

Defend the three – While we pointed out that Duke can get hot from three, it cannot be stated enough that the Longhorns love to let one opponent have the game of his life from long range. Texas cannot let Singler or Scheyer burn them for a bevy of three-pointers if they hope to pull the upset tonight.

Quality guard play – The post-season has been a stage for the emergence of Varez Ward as a consistent slasher who can create off the dribble. But the Horns will also need Balbay and Mason to continue to attack the paint and draw defenders away from Pittman and James. This attack worked wonders in the first half against Kansas, and the Longhorns should look to do the same against the smaller Blue Devils.

It should also be noted that Gary Johnson is questionable for tonight’s game thanks to back spasms, and on Saturday team reps put his chances of playing at 50/50.

3.12.09
Posted by Ryan Clark at 10:54AM

[5] Texas Longhorns (21-10) vs. [4] Kansas State Wildcats (21-10)
Ford Center | Oklahoma City, OK | Tip: Approx. 2 PM CDT
TV: Big 12 Network (Affiliate list) and ESPN Full Court

With yesterday’s 11-point win over Colorado, the Longhorns have advanced to the quarterfinal round of the Big 12 tournament, setting up a re-match with the Kansas State Wildcats. These two teams were part of a four-squad tie for fourth in the league, with K-State winning the tiebreaker by virtue of a win over the Longhorns back on January 31st.

Denis Clemente has led the way for K-State
(Photo credit: Orlin Wagner/Associated Press)

Unlike yesterday’s game, there’s a lot riding on today’s contest. The Wildcats are sitting on the wrong side of the bubble in most projections, thanks to a weak non-conference schedule and only a pair of quality wins against the Longhorns and Missouri Tigers. Most experts are theorizing that K-State needs a pair of wins in the league tourney to feel safe on Selection Sunday, so expect the ‘Cats to be playing full tilt this afternoon.

The Longhorns, on the other hand, are playing for seeding and a likely semi-final rematch with a Kansas team that they put a scare into on Saturday. Most bracket projections think that Texas has earned a 7- or 8-seed, which sets up an undesirable second-round NCAA match-up with one of the top eight teams in the tournament. But if the Longhorns can pull off a win today and an upset tomorrow, they could possibly work their way up the S-curve. There are a lot of moving parts involved as tournaments go on around the country, so all Texas can do is win.

The first meeting

The first time these two teams met, Denis Clemente became a breakout star, tying the conference’s scoring mark with 44 points in an 85-81 overtime win at the Frank Erwin Center. The Puerto Rican guard was a perfect 12-of-12 from the line and 6-of-6 from long range. Texas also gave up another four buckets from behind the arc, allowing the Wildcats to shoot a ridiculous 67% from three-point range.

Texas showed a lot of moxie in this game, however, fighting back from a 17-point deficit with less than eight minutes left in the game. The Longhorns finally tied things back up with only nine seconds left in the game, but couldn’t get over the hump in overtime.

Since then…

Coming into that game, Kansas State was only 2-4 in Big 12 play, thanks to a very tough opening slate. They followed up the Texas win by claiming victories in six of their final nine games, including road wins against Iowa State and Texas A&M in gyms that are famous for their home-court advantage.

Clemente continued to impress throughout the rest of the season, scoring 33 in a road game against Mizzou and 26 points against the Kansas Jayhawks. Unfortunately, the guard played a little dirty in that KU game, elbowing a player in the back and later slapping another one in the head, and missed the following game as a result.

Darren Kent has stepped up down the stretch
(Photo credit: Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press)

The biggest improvement during the stretch run, however, came from senior forward Darren Kent. His midrange game has blossomed, and his always-present three-point threat really stretches out opposing defenses. He’s played through a broken nose by wearing a protective mask, and has averaged nearly 10 points and six boards per game since the contest in Austin. With the added attention Clemente sees in this one, Kent could be the player to have a breakout game for Coach Frank Martin.

Keys to the game

For a longer preview of the Wildcat players and their tendencies, you’ll want to read the game preview from that earlier match-up. But for our keys to this afternoon’s re-match, just read on…

Keep pounding it inside – Texas scored 38 points in the paint against Colorado, and they’ll want to keep forcing it inside against the Wildcats. As we mentioned in that first game preview, Jamar Samuels and Luis Colon are foul magnets, and the Longhorns can earn a ton of free points by taking it at the twin towers. After those two frontcourt players, the talent level drops off significantly. If Texas can get them in foul trouble, facing off against lumbering forward Ron Anderson could make the points come even faster.

Defend the perimeter – The Wildcats scorched Texas for 10 three-pointers on only 15 attempts when they played in Austin, and that simply won’t fly if Texas hopes to winn today’s contest. The Kansas State frontcourt is not much of a scoring threat, so it’s worth the risk to play tighter outside on Clemente and Fred Brown while daring the ‘Cats to beat you down low.

Knock Clemente back to Earth – There’s simply no way that Clemente will go off for 44 points again in this one, especially if the officials decide that his forearm shoves are actually worthy of offensive foul calls. But when you consider the fact that the speedy guard dropped 44, his team had a 17-point lead, and Texas still almost stormed back for a win…well, you start to like the Longhorns’ odds if they can hold him to even just 20 points.

Tip is scheduled for 2 P.M. this afternoon, but tournament officials have been giving teams 27 minutes to warm up between contests. If the Bears and Jayhawks happen to run late in the early game, adjust your DVRs accordingly.

3.11.09
Posted by Ryan Clark at 9:46AM

[12] Colorado Buffaloes (9-21) at Texas Longhorns (20-10)
Ford Center | Oklahoma City, OK | Tip: Approx. 2 PM CDT
TV: Big 12 Network (Local affiliate list) and ESPN Full Court

Texas opens the Big 12 tournament with one of those awful games that means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things. A win over the league’s worst team, Colorado, does absolutely nothing for the Longhorns’ computer profile. In fact, playing against a team with such an awful record actually hurts the numbers that the NCAA Selection Committee is looking at as they fill out the bracket. In short, Texas has nothing to gain by beating the Buffaloes, but unfortunately has a lot to lose.

Cory Higgins leads the charge for Colorado
(Photo credit: Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press)

Stumbling against Colorado — something that Baylor did in last season’s tournament as the 5-seed — could easily cost the Longhorns a seed line or two when the NCAA brackets come out next Sunday. And for a team that has been vacillating between 7- and 8-seeds in most projections for the last four weeks, losing ground on the S-curve is a recipe for disaster. The Longhorns have to make a showing in this week’s tournament if they want to avoid a potential match-up with a 1- or 2-seed in the NCAA’s second round. Unfortunately, that run will have to start with this damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t trap game.

If you missed the game preview from the first time these two teams met, you will want to check it out for a detailed look at the Colorado players, their style of basketball, and how they match up with the Longhorns. If you’ve already read over that fine piece of literature, carry on for a quick preview of today’s tilt…

The previous meeting

Although Texas needed overtime for an 85-76 win, the Longhorns actually played remarkably well for most of the game. A.J. Abrams dropped 29, while Damion James had a double-double with 21 points and 14 rebounds. Texas fans will remember that James missed two opportunities to win the game at the free throw line in regulation, but his performance in overtime is what sealed the deal.

It wasn’t just the two stars who were clicking, as the Longhorns shot over 57% from the field and were seemingly unstoppable. Where they tripped up was in allowing the much shorter and guard-oriented Colorado team to grab just two rebounds less than the Longhorns. As we mentioned in the game preview of the first match-up, the lineup and style of play that Colorado coach Jeff Bzdelik employs means that Texas should be absolutely dominating the glass when these two teams meet.

Texas was also completely unable to shut down super soph Cory Higgins, who went off for 34 points, nine of which came at the line. Higgins shot 55% from the field, including a 3-of-5 afternoon from long range. Jermyl Jackson-Wilson doubled his season average with 10 against the Longhorns, while grabbing three key offensive rebounds in the game.

Since then…

When these teams first met on Valentine’s Day, the Buffaloes were fresh off a string of games where they had been putting scares into the top teams of the Big 12 Conference. Since then, Colorado has lost its remaining six games, but continued to play tough basketball that kept them in the contests until late.

Although the Buffaloes suffered a 21-point blowout loss at home against Oklahoma State followed by an 18-point embarrassment versus Baylor in Waco, they hung tough against quality teams from the top half of the conference in the other four losses. While none of those games were as impressive as the mid-season games that Colorado played on the road against Oklahoma and Kansas, their performance shows that these young Buffaloes are not yet throwing in the towel.

Higgins is one player in particular who is still giving 110% every night. In the last three games of the season, he averaged 23 points per contest on 49% shooting and swiped five steals. Unfortunately for the Buffs, Higgins still struggled with hanging on to the basketball. The Wildcats forced him to cough it up six times in the season finale on Saturday, giving him a final line on the year that includes a troubling 0.9 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Texas needs Damion James to crash the glass
(Photo credit: Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press)

Keys to the game

Dominate the rebounding battle – As it was in our first game preview for Colorado, the No. 1 key for this game is rebounding. Texas is much bigger than Colorado, and the Buffs’ affinity for a four-guard look with a post that sets high screens means that there is no excuse for the poor job the Longhorns did on the glass during the first match-up. Today Texas needs to keep Colorado off the boards — particularly Jackson-Wilson on the offensive end — and convert those solid defensive stands into one-and-done possessions.

Turn Higgins into a mere mortal – There is no doubt that this sophomore sensation is a great player, and next season could even lead Colorado out of the bottom rungs of the league standings. But if you take away even half of his 34-point performance from the February 14th game, Texas wins that one in a cakewalk. The Longhorns can’t sell out to guard Higgins, but he is by far their biggest offensive threat, and he warrants added defensive attention today. Texas needs to communicate on defense so they don’t lose the little guard as they fight through the infinite number of screens that Colorado is going to throw out there.

Play injury-free – Rather than a key to winning this game, we’re going with the big picture for No. 3 in our rundown. As we mentioned in the lead, Texas is in a no-win situation with this game. Losing it will cost them a few seed lines, but losing any of their key players in a win is no better. While you can’t really plan for a game with no tweaked ankles or knees, let’s all pull for the Longhorns to come out healthy on the other side of this one.

3.07.09
Posted by Ryan Clark at 12:31PM

Texas Longhorns (20-9 overall, 9-6 Big 12) at Kansas Jayhawks (24-6, 13-2)
Allen Fieldhouse | Lawrence, KS | Tip: 3 PM CST | TV: CBS

Coach Self and Brady Morningstar discuss their LOST theories
(Photo credit: Orlin Wagner/Associated Press)

Following their Monday night victory over the Baylor Bears, the Texas Longhorns can now breathe a little easier about their NCAA tournament hopes. They cracked the magical 20-win mark, have RPI and SOS numbers in the top 40, and have logged four wins against teams in the Top 30 of the RPI. But even with their ticket to the Big Dance practically punched, the Longhorns have a lot to play for this Saturday afternoon at Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence.

Texas sits in a tie with Oklahoma State for fourth in the Big 12, which comes with the added benefit of a first-round bye in next week’s conference tournament in Oklahoma City. While the Longhorns hold a tiebreaker over the Cowboys, they do not hold the tiebreaker over Kansas State, a team which is only one game back in the standings and hosts the lowly Colorado Buffaloes this afternoon. With the Wildcats likely winning and Oklahoma State having to travel to Norman to face Oklahoma, the Longhorns must win today to seal that fourth first-round bye.

For Kansas, today is a chance to win the Big 12 title outright. Even if they lose and split the league title, the Jayhawks will earn the 1-seed in next week’s conference tourney. But for a program with such a proud and storied history, anything less than an outright title will feel tainted. So while the Longhorns have their own reasons for wanting an upset this afternoon, the role of spoiler is also calling their name.

Unfortunately, winning in Lawrence has been an unsolvable mystery for the Longhorns, who have been unsuccessful in their eight tries dating back to 1941. Allen Fieldhouse is just as tough for other visiting opponents, as the Jayhawks have won 40 straight contests at home and have only lost once in 38 home games against teams from the conference’s southern half.

By the numbers

Based simply on efficiency, the Jayhawks seem like a flawless team. Kansas is 9th-best in the country on the defensive end, holding opponents to just 0.883 points per possession, while they also dice teams up on the offensive end to the tune of 1.141 points per possession. That differential of nearly 0.30 points each trip down the court starts to add up quickly, and it’s led to a handful of blowouts for the Jayhawks this year.

That excellent efficiency on both ends of the ball is especially dangerous in Lawrence, where Kansas rides the crowd’s energy to punch visitors in the mouth and race out to huge early leads. Against Missouri and Kansas State, both solid teams who are bitter rivals of the Jayhawks, Kansas jumped out to 33-12 and 18-0 leads, respectively. If the Longhorns aren’t clicking early, they could be digging themselves out of a massive hole for the entire afternoon.

Statistically, the one anomaly for Kansas is their turnover margin. The Jayhawks are actually giving it up 0.8 times per game more than their opponents, and it’s been the Achilles heel for a team that oftentimes seems unbeatable. In the road loss against Missouri, KU coughed it up an inexcusable 27 times. Texas isn’t a team that forces an inordinate number of mistakes by their opponents, but they are a team that hangs on to the basketball. If the Horns can squeeze out a few extra possessions, it will only help their long odds this afternoon.

Sherron Collins relishes his new leadership role
(Photo credit: Orlin Wagner/Associated Press)

The starting five

After losing all five starters from last year’s national championship team, the Jayhawks were a huge question mark heading into the season. They boasted a recruiting class that was ranked in the top five according to Scout, but the lack of experience was a definite concern for those bleeding blue in the midwest. Fortunately, junior Sherron Collins and sophomore Cole Aldrich stepped up to the task, filling the leadership void and carrying the team to a sparkling 24-6 record to date.

Collins is the steady floor general, a wicked fast guard who can heat up in a hurry from outside. Even though he leads the team with over 18 points per game, he’s averaging nearly five assists as well. Collins’ long-range threat means that defenders can often get pump-faked before he blows by them, and the little guy knows how to finish at the rack. But perhaps more importantly, he loves to kick it out when the defense collapses down on him, and this team has its share of long-range gunners that can capitalize on the opportunities Collins opens up.

Brady Morningstar is one of those three-point threats, hitting over 41% of his attempts this season. He’s a redshirt sophomore who actually took his year off after his freshman season, and he’s a capable ball-handler who can take over for Collins in a pinch. Morningstar is the team’s best on-ball defender, and he’ll likely be tasked with getting in the face of A.J. Abrams all game long.

Big man Aldrich is the key to everything for the Jayhawks, but he’s coming into this one a bit gimpy after hurting his ankle in the waning minutes of Wednesday night’s loss to Texas Tech. Kansas loves to run an inside-out game built on Aldrich’s presence in the lane, and when he’s sitting on the bench with foul trouble or injury, the Jayhawks turn fairly one-dimensional. The center is the team’s second-leading scorer with 15 points per contest, so if that ankle flares up at all this afternoon, Texas could hang around long enough to have a shot in the final minutes.

Cole Aldrich is a solid post defender
(Photo credit: Alonzo Adams/Associated Press)

Aldrich is also a hell of a rebounder and is averaging more than two blocks a game. Cole gets most of his blocks when he rotates over to help, so if the Texas guards can penetrate and draw him out of the lane, it could open things up for little dump-offs to Dexter Pittman, Gary Johnson, and Damion James.

Marcus Morris is the team’s lone starting forward, and one of two twin brothers from Philadelphia on the Jayhawk roster. Marcus is the more well-rounded of the two, and he is going to be an absolute star before he finishes his time at Kansas. He can isolate the defender and take him off the dribble, step out and hit the threes, or post up and kiss it off the glass. One knock on his game is a tendency to pick up dumb fouls, as he’s getting whistled about once every seven minutes. Fortunately, Coach Self has a few other solid options at forward, so he doesn’t need more than 18-20 minutes from this Morris.

Freshman Tyshawn Taylor is still a bit unpolished, but it’s clear that this kid will also be giving Big 12 opponents a bunch of headaches in the next few years. He’s only 6’3″, but his wingspan is deceptively long and he uses it to his advantage to get the shot off over taller defenders when he drives to the rim. Taylor also has a good jumper, can hit shots on the run, and penetrates with flashy speed. But he’s shown a problem with making sound decisions this year, and as a result he has more than his share of turnovers. Unfortunately, he’s also coming into this one a little banged up from the Tech game, where he injured his lower leg and headed to the locker room almost immediately.

Off the bench

Tyrel Reed is another three-point gunner for Kansas, hitting over 39% of his attempts from long range. Like Taylor and Morningstar, Reed is also enough of a ball handler to help out when Collins is off the court, but he’s not a true point guard. Taking Reed away from his natural position off the ball marginalizes his speciality, so Coach Self doesn’t waste many of his minutes by doing it.

Off the bench, Mario Little is an excellent sixth man for Coach Self and the ‘Hawks. He is a JuCo transfer that missed the first half of the season with injury, and many thought he was going to sit out the entire year and use a medical redshirt. But Little decided he wanted to help out his team immediately, and he saw his first action in conference play against Kansas State.

He’s a bit of a ‘tweener, as he can play as a big guard or a smaller forward and does both equally well. He has great outside range, can easily knock down the mid-range J, and loves to fight down low for rebounds and buckets. Despite only grabbing about 13 minutes per game, he’s averaging more than three rebounds, and is yet another player who is going to stand out in the near future.

Markieff Morris is more of a forward than his brother, and he has an even bigger problem picking up fouls. While Marcus is getting whistled once every seven minutes, Markieff is caught cheating once every five minutes. If he could learn to play better defense and stop picking up stupid fouls, Markieff Morris could earn more playing time and be a much bigger presence for the Jayhawks.

Travis Releford is a very big guard who has played in nearly every game this year, but doesn’t make a huge impact. He’s really good in the open court, but he’s not the greatest jump shooter and as a result, he struggles a bit more in the half-court. Releford can get to the rim, but he still needs some seasoning before he’s considered much of a threat.

Marcus Morris is not a fan of the new TigerChair
(Photo credit: Orlin Wagner/Associated Press)

Keys to the game

Mason and Balbay must penetrate – Both Texas guards showed that they weren’t afraid to attack the rim against Baylor on Monday night, but Mason has only rarely taken it to the rack this year. As mentioned above, Aldrich loves to rotate in help defense, so if the Texas guards can get him and the rest of the Jayhawks to play reactive defense, it should open up the post. In addition, any fouls the guards can draw on the big man will only help to turn Kansas into a team glued to the perimeter.

Play solid team defense – Kansas loves to spread out the floor, so their talented backcourt can easily expose flaws in the Texas man-to-man defense. The Longhorns are going to have to play smart D today, and work together to help on penetration without leaving the perimeter wide open. The Jayhawks can absolutely light it up from long range, so Texas simply cannot overpursue.

Shut down Collins – It seems fairly obvious to say that Texas must shut down the leading scorer for Kansas. But that’s exactly what Texas Tech did on Wednesday night, and the Jayhawks just could not get over the hump without his leadership. While you can’t really expect the Longhorns to hold Collins to an abysmal 3-of-19 like the Red Raiders did, it’s painfully obvious that the junior guard cannot score 20 points if Texas hopes to win.

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