Nineteen days ago, Texas A&M was absolutely reeling, having lost three of four after a nearly pristine start to their season. Only a narrow win in Stillwater kept the Aggies from stumbling into a home date with rival Texas on an ugly four-game losing streak. But the first eight minutes of the game that night went completely in Texas A&M’s favor, and they obliterated the Longhorns for an easy 80-63 win.

Since then, Texas has won five straight games, including Monday’s home upset of Kansas and road wins against OU and Baylor. And until Saturday’s fumble against Oklahoma State, the Aggies were just as hot, winning their next three after the dismantling of their rivals. The hot February for the top two teams in Texas has helped them separate from the pack in the Big 12, putting the Longhorns just a half-game out of first while the Aggies are hanging on to the coveted 4th-place spot in the conference — and the tournament bye that comes with it.

Lost amidst the ugly start to the January 30th game is the fact that Texas A&M and Texas played a pretty even game from that point on. As I mentioned in the game preview of that match-up, A&M is a very turnover-prone team, and there was a stretch in the first half where they made unforced error after unforced error. In front of a rowdy Texas crowd, there’s a chance that the Ags could get even more rattled tonight and make more mistakes. Don’t forget — this Aggie team is only 3-3 on the road, with the three wins coming against the bottom half of the Big 12.

As we look forward to tonight’s game, I feel that the biggest factor in the re-match will be the recent emergence of Gary Johnson. He is now a great offensive weapon in the paint, and the combo of Johnson and Connor Atchley in the hi-low game is really a treat to watch. When these two teams met at the end of January, the key post presence for the Longhorns was Dexter Pittman, while Johnson played only four ineffective minutes. With the addition of GJ’s offense and his work on the glass, the outlook for Texas is much rosier this time around.

A huge problem that teams face when playing Texas A&M is the pick-your-poison defensive quandary that their inside-out attack gives opponents. While a lot of Baylor’s ineffectiveness from behind the arc on Saturday was a result of their shooters going cold, the Texas three-point defense has improved tremendously over the last few weeks. If the Longhorns can shut down Dominique Kirk and Josh Carter — who was 4-of-7 behind the arc in College Station — it will make things a lot easier for the defense inside.

I linked it once earlier in this game preview, but take the time to go back and check out the preview I wrote of the first Texas/Texas A&M game to get an in-depth look at the Aggie squad and their style of play. Tonight is certainly going to be a hard-fought game, but Ken Pomeroy is predicting a three-point Longhorn victory, while Vegas likes Texas by 4.5 points.

Tonight’s game is sold out, so if you’re without a ticket you can tune in to ESPN or ESPNHD for the action or plop down $12 to watch it on the big screen in selected theatres throughout Texas (Plug in your zip code here to look for cinemas in your area.) See the rest of you at the Drum tonight.

Burnt Orange Nation game preview
Texas Sports game preview

Texas travels to Waco today, riding high after the home-court upset of Kansas on Monday night. The win was the fourth-straight for the Longhorns and their seventh victory in the last eight games. Texas also has a much longer streak hanging in the balance tonight, as they have won all 21 games against Baylor since Rick Barnes arrived in Austin for the 1998-99 season.

For an in-depth look at the Baylor players, you can re-read the game preview from the February 2nd match-up between these two teams, a game which Texas won by an 80-72 count. That loss was the start of a rough February for the Bears, who have since lost two of three. The ensuing game was an 80-72 home victory for Baylor over Texas Tech in Pat Knight’s first game as head coach. But since then, the Bears have dropped a pair of road games against Kansas and Oklahoma State, and are more than ready to return to the friendly confines of the Ferrell Center.

Just a week ago, there was a clear dividing line in the conference standings, with five teams lumped at the top and the other seven teams wallowing in mediocrity. But with Baylor’s recent dive, they now find themselves caught firmly between the two groups, and a loss today could drop them into the muddled middle of the conference.

It’s a “Gold Out” today in the sold-out Ferrell Center, so if you don’t have tickets you’ll probably want to plop down in front of the television. This ought to be another great match-up of two solid backcourts, and it’s one you won’t want to miss.

Not a whole lot of time for the preview today, but suffice it to say that Texas has its work cut out for it tonight against Kansas. The Jayhawks run ten deep, and practically every one of those players could start for any D-1 school in the country. The biggest changes between this year’s team and last year’s squad are the improved play of Sasha Kaun and Darnell Jackson. The added threat provided by these two down low means that defenses can no longer key on Mario Chalmers, Darrell Arthur, Brandon Rush, and Sherron Collins. The Texas defense is going to have a tough time guarding all of the scoring threats on the Kansas roster.

If you are looking for a way to beat Kansas, there isn’t much data to draw on. With only one loss — on the road to Kansas State — the Jayhawks have often seemed flawless. But Kansas also struggled with Colorado and against Arizona, so with the help of Ken Pomeroy we can look for the common thread. According to Pomeroy’s metrics, their opponents effective FG% was above 50% in all three of those games. The eFG% measure gives added weight to three-point shots, and that seems to be a good strategy against the high-pressure, turnover-forcing D of the Jayhawks. In the games against K-State, Colorado, and Arizona, the Jayhawks gave up 31 three-pointers. Even against Baylor on Saturday, Kansas allowed 12-of-29 shooting from behind the arc. While Texas will certainly need big games from its role players in this one, the Horns will have their best shot if they are knocking down the trifectas.

Andrew from Burnt Orange Nation pointed out in his Iowa State wrap that Texas bench play is going to be huge today. Kansas is a much deeper squad, and this is only their second game since last Monday’s win over Missouri. The Longhorns had to make two tough road trips and played an extra five minutes against ISU on Saturday. The guards are definitely going to get tired in this one, so they need to slow down the tempo and not play into the Jayhawks’ game plan.

That’s about all I’ve got time for now, as the power source outside the Erwin Center is turned off today and the battery on the laptop is running low. For a great pre-game, check out another post from Andrew previewing the match-ups. Tip is at roughly 8 PM on ESPN, which will be airing the game in beautiful hi-def. See you back here tomorrow morning for the post-mortem.

On Wednesday, Texas started off its brutal three-week march of death on the right foot, winning a road game in Norman. Today they face a team that doesn’t look to be threatening based solely on record, but the truth is that the Iowa State Cyclones can be a dangerous ball club. And even when you look past the teams themselves and just examine the history, you find that the Longhorns are only 2-5 all-time in Hilton Coliseum, a gym that can be incredibly loud and unnerving when ‘Clone fans fill it up.

This is something of a “must-win” for the Horns, as that death march gets only tougher from here. The next five games for Texas are against teams all ranked 38th or better according to Ken Pomeroy’s RPI approximations. And while Iowa State has won all three home games in Big 12 play, this is the most winnable game over the next three weeks for Texas.

By the numbers

The Cyclones’ offense is fairly anemic, but their defense is solid enough that they can grind out wins without scoring many points. That defense has been even better at home for Iowa State, as they’ve held opponents to only 58 points per game in conference play. For comparison, they’ve allowed 76 points per game on the road in conference games, although that stat is still a little inflated as two of the three teams included were Kansas and Kansas State.

Iowa State also plays really good defense without letting its opponents get to the line. On the season, they have taken 424 shots from the charity stripe, yet only sent opponents there 348 times. According to Pomeroy, their defensive free-throw rate (FT attempts/FG attempts) is 15th-best in all of NCAA basketball. While this would seem to be a good thing for a Texas team that shoots poorly from the line, it also means that a huge part of D.J. Augustin‘s game will be missing from his repertoire. If he can’t drive to the rim and draw fouls, the defense could be less-inclined to help, limiting the number of open looks that D.J. can dish for.

Texas fans can expect a slow, grind-it-out game from the Cyclones. Their tempo is ranked in the bottom-third of NCAA D-1 schools, which allows them to keep the score low enough to steal victories. With the number of possessions limited, Texas cannot afford to jack up ill-advised shots early in possessions, and they absolutely must crash the offensive glass. If Iowa State can somehow keep the Longhorn offense within the 60-point range, they could have a shot today.

The starters

The key to the Iowa State offense is guard Wesley Johnson, a Texas kid who got away. He leads the team in scoring with 13.9 points per game, and the Cyclones often look like they’ve forgotten how to score when he’s not out there. He missed the beginning of the season with a foot injury and then re-aggravated it in the victory over Colorado, causing him to miss the game against Nebraska earlier this week. The Cyclones sputtered with Johnson in street clothes, and struggled even more when big man Jiri Hubalek was also on the bench.

Johnson is a difficult match-up for Texas, because he’s an off-guard who is 6-foot, 7-inches. Yes, you read that right. He’s got a full eight inches on the Longhorns’ own 2-guard, A.J. Abrams, meaning that Damion James will likely be tasked with guarding the prolific scorer. But when James is on the bench, other Longhorns will have a tough time with him. Gary Johnson gives up an inch or two, while Clint Chapman, Alexis Wangmene, or Connor Atchley aren’t agile enough to keep up with Johnson. Wes is going to get his points in this game, but it’s a question of how well the Longhorns can shut down the other role players for Iowa State.

The other key to Iowa State’s unsteady offense is the aforementioned Jiri Hubalek. He’s a big man from the Czech Republic who can give ‘Clone fans heart attacks. While he gets his points down low, he often fumbles the pass or rebounds, and sometimes misses point-blank shots that he has no business missing. He’s fitting in more comfortably with Coach McDermott’s system now, although early clashes with the new coach nearly led to Hubalek quitting after Wayne Morgan’s departure. Hubalek will definitely score in the paint, but the Texas bigs have faced much tougher competition down low, and they should fare well against him.

The player I’m most excited to see today is freshman Craig Brackins. He can do a little bit of everything, as he’s lethal from long range, can attack off the dribble, and has the body to play down low when he feels like it. If the Cyclones do happen to pull off an upset in this one, it could be Brackins getting hot from outside that makes the difference. Although he still needs some work, the biggest knock on his game is that at 6-10, he hangs out too far from the paint. His team is getting out-rebounded on the season, and they need his length inside. So far, he’s only grabbing five boards per game and that number really needs to go up for the ‘Clones to see more success.

The point guard for Coach McDermott is former hometown kid and former walk-on Bryan Peterson. He’s a good floor-general who doesn’t score very often, but he has a nice shot from outside when he takes it. On the season, he’s only 35.8% from behind the arc, but he is still not a guy you want to leave open. He’s not going to get the kinds of assists that Augustin racks up when driving to the lane, but Peterson keeps the offense running and is a really great story for announcers to talk about when their games are out of hand.

Rashon Clark is a senior forward for the Cyclones, and he’s a consistent, hard-nosed kid. He’s yet another Iowa State player who is really long, and is averaging nine points and five boards this year. Sometimes it seems like he doesn’t communicate as well on defense as the other Iowa State players, but his long arms make it easier for him to catch up from behind the play on the occasions when he gets out of position. He’s a quick slasher and has absolutely incredible hops, so if gets out in the open court, expect him to bring the house down with a monster jam.

Off the bench

Although Brackins is the freshman who starts for Iowa State, Diante Garrett is the point guard of the future in Ames. He’s got a ton of talent, but still needs to develop his body and his game for the college level. I have a feeling that in future years, fans of Texas and other Big 12 schools are going to be frustrated quite a few times by the Garrett/Brackins combo. For now, he’s earning a nice chunk of minutes and learning on the job. He doesn’t score often because his shooting percentage is always dipping towards the Mendoza line, but he’s got good basketball IQ and commands the floor when he’s in there.

The most important guy off the bench could be Alex Thompson, though. He’s another 6’10” forward, but he’s an absolute presence on defense. He’s been playing pretty well in conference games, but really showcased what kind of a game he could have with significant minutes when the Cyclones faced Oregon State. Yes, I realize that the Beavers are abysmal, but Thompson shot 55% from the field and had a 12/5 line in his 30 minutes on the court. Like Brackins, he should really rebound better for a guy his size, but when he’s in the game he definitely makes opponents think twice about driving the lane.

Sean Haluska eats some minutes at the guard position, but he’s more famous for having a talented brother than for anything he’s done thus far in Ames. Other than that, Coach McDermott throws in a few minutes here and there for the rest of his bloated bench, but none make any contributions of note.

What to look for

Texas is going to have a tough time getting fast breaks going against the ‘Clones. Their transition D is solid, as the team gets back in a hurry to not only cut off the fast break, but get set up in position to prevent a secondary break, as well. If Texas can force some turnovers, they should certainly try to grab the easy points, but should not force the issue if the Cyclones cut it off. As I previously mentioned, possessions will be limited in this one, so the Horns can’t throw away the extra ones by pressing too hard against a good transition D.

The resiliency that the Horns showed on Wednesday night in Norman will also be big here. Iowa State is a great defensive team, and Texas could start out shooting poorly once again as a result. They need to keep pressing on like they did against the Sooners, and eventually their talent should win out. The nice thing about Iowa State’s slow-down, grind-it-out game is that even if they grab a lead, the Longhorns should always be within striking distance. Over a forty-minute game, I like Texas’ odds to end up on top.

With the game being more of a half-court affair, will fans be treated to more time from Dexter Pittman? With Coach Barnes bringing Damion James off the bench in the last two, Pittman, Chapman, and Wangmene have seen more minutes. This could be a chance for Pittman to eat up some PT and chip in some points down low against the Cyclone frontcourt.

On a related note, will this mark the return of James to the starting lineup? Nobody else really matches up with Wes Johnson, so leaving him out there against a Longhorn defense without DaMo to start the game could prove costly. I’d like to see James back in the starting five and hassling Johnson for 36+ minutes. This also leads to the point that James cannot afford to get in foul trouble in this one.

For another look at the match-ups, check out the interview that CrossCyed of Clone Chronicles gave the good folks at Burnt Orange Nation today. CC is a quality blogger and knows this team very well, so be sure to give it a look.

While this one is on ABC, it’s a split-national telecast with the Washington State/USC tilt airing at the same time. Check your local listings to see if its on in your area. If it’s not, you can check it out on ESPN360.com, although I’ve never messed with that and can’t really tell you how it works.

I may try to head all the way back to Austin tonight, so the post-game might take a while in coming. If I happen to stop somewhere for the night, I’ll try to tap it out then. Otherwise, look for new content on Sunday evening.

Texas returns home after a lopsided mid-week road loss to Texas A&M, hoping to rebound against Baylor this afternoon. In previous years, that would be just what the doctor ordered — beat up on the Bears, pad the stats, and move on to another conference test. But not any longer. This Baylor team is one of the league’s best and is the first one in school history to play Texas with a national ranking in hand.

Evidence of Scott Drew’s turnaround on the Waco campus could be seen last season, as Baylor took Texas down to the wire in all three games last season. That included a near-upset in the Big 12 Tournament where the Bears built a 20-point lead in the second half, but were overcome by the heroics of Kevin Durant and Craig Winder. This year, close enough isn’t good enough for Baylor, and they want to announce their legitimacy with a huge road win in Austin.

By the numbers

Baylor is a very solid team on both sides of the ball, with both offense and defense better on the perimeter. The Bears have an adjusted offensive efficiency of 112.3, while holding opponents to 93.4 points per 100 possessions. Baylor finds a lot of success in both departments by forcing turnovers and pushing the break, as 25% of their offense this season comes off of the transition game, according to Coach Drew.

On the other side of the ball, the Bears maintain great ball control with a turnover percentage (TO/possessions) that is 16th best in the entire nation. Scott Drew starts three solid guards and has two exciting younger ones that come off the bench, so forcing the issue will not be easy for the Texas defense.

Those guards are also great at guarding the three-point line, and they will make it difficult for D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams to get going from long range. Baylor can be absolutely abused inside, though, as Oklahoma proved in their win on Saturday. The Sooner post play was so troublesome that the Bears switched to a 2-3 zone to stop the bleeding, so if Texas can establish inside play perhaps they can open up their outside shooters this way.

The starters

Austin native Curtis Jerrells is the team’s leading scorer and one of the three excellent guards for the Bears. He’s started all 19 games for Baylor this season and averages 14.4 points per game. As is the case with all of the BU backcourt players, he’s quick with the ball, has great handles, and can attack the rim off the bounce. He’s a pretty good shooter from long range, too, but is overshadowed by some even better sharpshooters on the roster.

Aaron Bruce is benefiting from a more balanced Baylor attack this year. Without having to carry the entire team on his back, he has exhibited better shot selection and become an even more efficient scorer. He only plays 25 minutes a game this year, leaving him with fresh legs late in the games. He’s the best three-point shooting starter for the Bears, knocking them down at a scary 42.4% clip.

The other starting guard for Coach Drew is Henry Dugat, who is averaging 12.1 points per game coming into this one. Like Jerrells and Bruce, Dugat can attack the paint and score, or shoot it in your eye from behind the arc, where he’s hitting at 37% on the year.

The key big man down low is Kevin Rogers, and he is picking up the trash for Baylor in the paint. He’s the team’s leading scorer and seems to quietly rack up his points each game on putbacks and tip-ins. The Bears don’t have a ton off assists on the books, but the ones they often record come after one of the guards draws a collapsing defense in the lane and leaves the bigs wide open down low under the rim.

Josh Lomers is improving in his second season on the Brazos, but he still looks a bit raw. He reminds me a lot of Connor Atchley in his first two years, in that the kid clearly has potential but isn’t fully realizing it yet. Lomers was an absolute stud back at Boerne High, but the post players in high-level D1 basketball are a far cry from the poor kids he was abusing back in mid-level UIL play.

Off the bench

Tweety Carter is the smallest guy on the court for Baylor, and possibly the fastest. He can knock it down from anywhere, and was the leading all-time scorer in Louisiana high school history. His three-point percentage is a sky-high 43.3%, but teams that play up in his jersey will find him blowing by for an easy layup.

The other solid guard off the bench is freshman LaceDarius Dunn, another long-range dead-eye who is also a 43.3% shooter behind the arc. I know it sounds like a broken record, but Dunn is another quick one who is going to cause problems for the tired Texas guards when he comes in well-rested off the bench.

Delbert Simpson and Mamadou Diene are key reserves in the Baylor frontcourt, with walk-on Mark Shepherd earning some minutes as well. All three are still pretty unrefined, although Diene’s post defense can change the flow of a game. He’s a really long kid down under the rim, and he loves to block shots with authority. Offensively, he’s not much to write home about, but if Texas doesn’t stay on the boards, he’s going to get some garbage buckets.

Shepherd does all the little things right, much like former high school teammate Ian Mooney. He moves well without the ball, sets good screens, and hustles all over the place. He only averages two points a game, and if you see him shoot, you’ll understand why. But he’s something of a glue guy when the starters need a breather, and he’s fundamentally sound.

Simpson, a JuCo transfer, has really soft hands in the paint but often seems a little too excited with the ball. He’ll force shots that aren’t there instead of looking for the open man, and sometimes shuffles his feet in his rush to get the ball off. If Texas emphasizes the post game for a third-straight contest, he’ll likely be relied on for minutes when the Baylor bigs get into foul trouble.

What to look for

The key in this one is going to be limiting the Baylor three-pointers. For a Texas team who doesn’t like to guard the perimeter with any consistency, this will be a tall order. The Bears can quickly take the home crowd out of it with a long-range barrage, and they have made a ton of runs from deep deficits this year simply by riding the three-ball. Texas cannot afford to give up open looks downtown, and need to force Rogers and Diene to beat them down low.

For Texas, they need to try to expose the weakness inside for Baylor. Dexter Pittman should get a bunch of minutes again and needs to be fed the ball to take advantage of the Bears’ post D. If Rick Barnes doesn’t follow through on his threats to bench Damion James, DaMo will need to crash the glass and give another double-double performance.

And finally, if this game is close, Texas needs to improve from the line. The Bears lead the Big 12 from the line, hitting 73% of their attempts at the charity stripe. As has been well documented, the Horns haven’t been able to consistently hit free throws since early December. If the game is decided by a few points, this free throw disparity could unfortunately give the edge to the Bears. And when you consider that all three of the Baylor losses have been by seven points or less, the chances are good for another close one today.

As of 5 P.M. yesterday, there were still 1,000 tickets left for this one. I suspect that walk-up crowds will make it a sell-out, but if you’re thinking of catching the game, please come down to the Drum. If you happen to stay home, check out the affiliate list that’s linked at the top of this post to see which of your local networks will be carrying this ESPN+ telecast.