The Texas Longhorns head into conference play moving in the right direction. A home win over a talented but inconsistent UNC squad and an impressive performance on the road against Michigan State revealed a confident Longhorn team that looked nothing like the one that sleepwalked through a disastrous week on the island of Maui. Last Saturday, the Longhorns added another piece of the puzzle when tenacious rebounder Jaylen Bond rejoined the squad. There was also the huge news in late December that sophomore point guard and unquestioned team leader Myck Kabongo would be eligible for the final eight games of the season.

With one of the nation’s best defenses and a string of good news, things are finally looking up for Texas. Of course, opening conference play on the road against a formidable Baylor team could stop that momentum in an instant.

On paper, the Bears looked like a challenger to Kansas in the Big 12. On the court, the results have been mixed. Baylor recorded the school’s first road win against a Top 25 non-conference opponent when the Bears went into Rupp Arena and upset a young Kentucky team that is still finding its way. However, that win was sandwiched between home losses to the College of Charleston and Northwestern. There’s no doubt that these Bears should be one of the elite teams in the conference, but the question is whether or not they can consistently perform at a high level through the league’s grueling 18-game schedule.

By the numbers

The Bears have a practically unstoppable combination of talent in the paint and on the perimeter, and it shows with an adjusted offensive efficiency mark that is currently 17th in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy. The Bears score 1.132 points per possession, while holding opponents to an adjusted 0.945 points.

Baylor has been impressive so far this season against one of the nation’s toughest schedules. Pomeroy has their non-con slate ranked 32nd toughest in the land, as it also included a neutral-site game against Colorado, a home date with BYU and a true road game against Gonzaga last weekend.

While the efficiency numbers above have already been adjusted to account for that difficult schedule, the rest of their stats have not, and they are still dominant. The Bears are averaging more than 40 points per game in the paint, giving them one of the nation’s best two-point field-goal percentages at 55.4% per game. Their experienced backcourt takes care of the ball, posting a Top 30 turnover percentage of just 17.3%. Surprisingly, their offensive rebounding mark is at 34.2%, which just qualifies for the top third of Division I teams.

Defensively, the Bears have been using much more man than in years past, but it hasn’t stopped oppponents from hitting nearly 37% of their three-point attempts. Although Baylor starts four upperclassmen, there are still some major issues with communication on defense, which is keeping them from being truly dominant on that side of the ball. Their adjusted defensive efficiency is still ranked 89th in the country, but there is definitely room for improvement.

Prior to their loss to Gonzaga, the Bears appeared to be making strides in that department, holding BYU and USC Upstate to less than 0.9 points per possession. The Bulldogs torched Baylor both inside and out, however, posting 1.26 points per possession and an effective field goal percentage north of 60%. There’s no doubt that Gonzaga is a title contender this season, but Baylor will need better performances against elite teams if it wants to live up to its preseason billing.

Meet the Bears

For the first time in a long time, Texas will be battling the Bears with a new face on the Baylor sideline. Jerome Tang will be at the head of the Baylor bench this afternoon, as head coach Scott Drew is sitting out the first two conference games as part of the university’s self-imposed NCAA penalties. Although Baylor will be without its head coach, there’s still a ton of talent on the court for Texas to contend with.

The man that runs the show for Baylor is Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year Pierre Jackson (No. 55). If you don’t remember him from his impressive debut season in Waco last year, you will certainly know him by the end of this one. Jackson leads the league in scoring with 19.6 points per game, but is also an incredible facilitator, dishing out more than six assists each night.

It’s incredibly tough to shut down Jackson, because he can beat you in a variety of ways. His three-point shot is incredibly accurate, and he needs very little space to get it off. Jackson loves to simply step into a smooth three as the team races up the court in transition, so the Longhorns have to quickly find him as they get back on defense.

Jackson can also easily create his own shot in the half-court set. He’s a master at varying his speeds on the drive, hesitating just long enough to get a defender to downshift before he uses his blazing speed to drive to the rim. Jackson also has a wicked crossover that he loves to use on the wings, freezing opponents while he bursts to the rack.

Baylor also runs numerous ball screens for him on the perimeter, freeing him up to quickly drive to the rim. While he’s great at finishing through traffic, he really makes the highlight reel with his great feeds to the team’s bigs. As opponents scramble to provide help on Jackson’s drives, he’ll shovel a pass into the post or zip a one-handed feed to his teammate for a dunk.

Colorado and Gonzaga both gave Jackson some problems by rushing the ball screen and doubling him hard. The Buffaloes also had the luxury of a 6’6″ guard in Spencer Dinwiddie who could sag off of Jackson to limit his drives, yet still close out and contest three-pointers with his length. Texas doesn’t have that option today, but the Horns can certainly try to use their bigs to double past the ball screens and disrupt the Baylor half-court sets.

One thing that helps Baylor when they are doubled in those situations is the impressive game of 7’1″ freshman Isaiah Austin (No. 21). The big man has a great jump shot and is accurate beyond the arc, having hit 33% of his triples on the season. When Jackson is double-teamed, Austin’s height and long-range accuracy always give the Bears a relief option on the perimeter.

Austin is also very nimble with the basketball and can easily drive against opposing big men who try to guard him on the perimeter. He still has a very wiry frame and isn’t built to truly bang in the post, but with his nice shot and usual height advantage, it often doesn’t make a difference. A few more pounds of muscle will make Austin practically impossible to stop, but as it is, he’s still a match-up nightmare.

With Austin often stretching the floor, the man in the middle is junior Cory Jefferson (No. 34). He averages 13.2 points and 8.6 rebounds per game, and his offensive rebounding mark of 11.5% ranks him just outside the Top 200 nationally. Jefferson makes his hay on putbacks and easy finishes near the rim after Jackson has drawn defensive help. However, that’s not to say he can’t score outside the paint. Jefferson has a serviceable midrange game, but still lacks some consistency. The Horns want to force him to score on his jumpers, and hope that this is one of those days he’s not hitting them.

Even if Texas can keep Jefferson from scoring easy points, the Horns still have to worry about one of the nation’s most dangerous three-point shooters in Brady Heslip (No. 5). The Canadian junior has hit 35.6% of his long-range attempts this season, which is down considerably from his mark of 45.5% in 2011-12. However, last year Heslip lived on the perimeter and rarely drove the basketball. This year, he’s using the head fake to get defenders up before he drives for floaters or layups.

Rounding out the starting five is senior guard A.J. Walton (No. 22), the team’s defensive specialist. He is second in school history with 185 steals in 116 career games. While Walton is usually harassing the opponent’s best perimeter player, he still can score the ball. The senior is very smart about using his body inside to draw contact and shield the basketball, making sure to get it up and always have a chance at the three-point play.

Although Walton is probably too small to be tasked with shutting down Sheldon McClellan, he’ll likely be right in the jersey of Julien Lewis all afternoon. The one thing that may help Texas, however, is the aforementioned problem Baylor has had with communicating on defense. The Horns love to run both Lewis and McClellan through multiple screens off the ball, while Baylor often forgets to switch in those situations. If that happens this afternoon, there is little that Walton can do to stop the Texas shooters when he’s hung up on a screen without backup from his teammates.

The Bears rely primarily on their starting five, with those players eating up more than 76% of the team’s minutes. Still, the short bench is very talented and causes little drop-off when the starters need a breather.

Freshman Rico Gathers (No. 2) is built like a tank, or at least a middle linebacker. He’s only averaging 15.4 minutes per game with Jefferson ahead of him, but still manages to grab 4.3 boards and score nearly six points per game.

If Jefferson and Gathers both find themselves in foul trouble as they did against Gonzaga, freshman Taurean Prince (No. 35) will see much more than his average of five minutes. His post defense is still a work-in-progress, something that Gonzaga’s Elias Harris took full advantage of when Prince was in the game.

In the backcourt, Cal transfer Gary Franklin (No. 4) gives some quality minutes off the bench, and can both knock down the three or slice through the defense off the bounce.

Sophomore Duece Bello (No. 14) had a breakout performance in last season’s Big 12 Championship game, but hasn’t followed it up with consistent success this year. He has incredible hops and brings length to the perimeter with his 6’4″ frame, but is playing less than 12 minutes per game this season.

Freshman L.J. Rose (No. 1) also gets some time at the point each game, as he learns the ropes from Jackson. He’s currently averaging less than seven minutes per game.

Keys to the game

1) Limit second-chance points – The Bears aren’t as strong on the offensive glass as you might expect, although Jefferson has a nose for the ball on that end of the court. Still, Baylor is already so tough to stop on offense that Texas cannot afford to give up many offensive rebounds in this game. The Longhorns need to get a body on Jefferson when the shot goes up, and make sure that Austin doesn’t crash the glass from his usual spots outside the lane.

2) Turn Jackson into a passer – This key is much easier said than done, although the approach mentioned above is likely the best bet. Texas should blitz ball screens and stay close to the senior guard when he’s isolated on the perimeter. Although he can easily beat opponents off the dribble, the Longhorns will have to be ready to provide help once he drives and be willing to swallow a few points when he makes some impressive interior passes to his big men.

3) Cut down on live-ball turnovers – With Walton’s quick hands on the perimeter, the Bears get their fair share of breakaways. Couple his defense with Texas’ own turnover problems, and it could be a recipe for trouble.

Although Walton gets all the defensive praise, Jackson also gets quite a few swipes from unsuspecting opponents. Once he gets out on a fast break, his lightning-quick speed means that he is guaranteed to get to the rack on the other end. Texas is already going to have a tough time shutting down the Baylor offense, so they simply cannot be giving up fast break points if they want to have a shot this afternoon.

The Texas Longhorns wrap up 2012 with one last non-conference game, hosting in-state rival Rice this afternoon at the Erwin Center. While the Owls have been on an upward trajectory the last few seasons, this year’s squad is the definition of a rebuilding project, making this game more of a tune-up for the Longhorns. The timing is great, as Texas is coming off a pair of tough match-ups against North Carolina and Michigan State, with a road trip to Baylor looming next weekend.

By the numbers

No matter how you slice it, the numbers aren’t pretty for Coach Ben Braun and the Owls. Their adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency numbers rank in the bottom 100 nationally, with their offensive rebounding mark dead last out of 347 Division I teams. The Owls are still trying to put the pieces together after a tumultuous offseason, and it shows on the court.

As a result, Coach Braun has turned his team from one of last year’s quickest (68.6 possessions per game) to one of the slowest (64.3). They play patient basketball on the offensive end, spreading the court and waiting for the best possible shot. That patience does result in the one statistical bright spot for Rice, as their turnover rate of 17% is 22nd-best in the country. The Owls might not be able to score or rebound, but they certainly will not waste possessions with careless mistakes.

Meet the Owls

After the program’s most successful season in years, Coach Braun and the Rice faithful were ready for an experienced bunch to take the team to new heights this season. Instead, the decision not to renew the contract of assistant coach Marco Morcos unleashed a deluge of transfers and departures, gutting the once-promising roster.

Five Rice players transferred during the offseason, while a sixth returned home to Lebanon to play professionally. Of the six players, five were recruited by Morcos. Big man Arsalan Kazemi was a double-double machine at Rice and is now averaging 9.2 points and 10.4 boards for Oregon. Egyptian center Omar Oraby took his 7’4″ frame to USC, while German forward Jarelle Reischel went to Rhode Island. Point guard Dylan Ennis also transferred east, heading to Villanova, while forward Ahmad Ibrahim elected to go the professional route.

That leaves the Owls with three returning rotation guys, a host of newcomers, and a decided lack of size. The tallest players in the rotation are 6’7″ Seth Gearhart (No. 41) and British freshman Ross Wilson (No. 11). Gearhart is more of a stretch forward, however, while Wilson is struggling through the beginning of his first collegiate year. With no true big men, Rice often spreads all five players on the perimeter and constantly runs cuts through the lane, hoping for a quick-hitter that leads to a layup.

The star of the team is senior Tamir Jackson (No. 3), a 6’3″ guard who plays stifling perimeter defense and rebounds extremely well for a guy his size. On the offensive end, he’s the team’s best option to create a look, as he can put the ball on the floor and get to the rim when defenders play him a little too close. He’s also got the ability to hit a pull-up jumper at a moment’s notice, and is accurate enough from long range to be a consistent threat.

The other returning scorer is 6’4″ sophomore Julian DeBose (No. 15), who is also an excellent rebounder from the perimeter. He’s struggling with his midrange game this season, but has still managed to average 9.9 points per game by driving to the rack for layups and by converting his rare offensive boards into second-chance points.

With Ennis now on the Main Line, diminutive freshman Max Guercy (No. 1) is running the point. Listed at a generous 5’9″, Guercy is often able to get to the rim, but has had difficulties finishing in traffic. He’s good at using the hesitation dribble and varying his speeds to fool the defense, but Guercy’s inability to convert the easy looks is a huge blow for a team that is so inept on the offensive end.

Off the bench, junior forward Austin Ramljak (No. 42) has proven to be a big-time three-point threat. Although he’s been streaky from behind the arc, when the California juco product gets hot, he can light it up in a hurry. At the DirecTV Classic in Anaheim, Ramljak knocked down 9-of-18 from behind the arc in back-to-back games against Georgia Tech and Drake. On the season, he’s made a more reasonable 35% of his long-range looks, but Texas certainly can’t let him get comfortable this afternoon.

Freshman Keith Washington (No. 5) rounds out the core rotation, hailing from Philadelphia. He has an aggressive streak with good driving ability, and he has the strength to absorb contact and still get his shot up. Washington has shown some flashes this season that give fans hope that he can be a star, but for now he’s still a role player who is averaging 5.5 points in his 20 minutes per game.

Keys to the game

1) Take care of the ball – It looked like the Longhorns were heading the right direction in the turnover department, coughing it up on less than 17.5% of their possessions against UCLA, Texas State, and North Carolina. Saturday’s loss to a feisty Michigan State team exposed those weaknesses again, however, as the Longhorns ended more than 26% of their possessions with a turnover. While the Owls aren’t a team that forces many miscues, this is a major issue that the Longhorns need to get under control before tackling their Big 12 slate.

2) Deny Jackson’s driving lanes – Tamir Jackson is the only player on the Rice roster who can consistently create his own shot, and their offense can go cold for extended periods of time when he’s not scoring. If Julien Lewis and the Longhorns can turn away his drives and force him to beat them with long jump shots, Rice will have a hard time putting up enough points to hang with Texas.

3) Shadow Ramljak on the perimeter – Austin Ramljak has proven he can put up a bunch of points from outside, and he doesn’t need a ton of space to get off his shot. The Texas defenders need to stay in his shirt when he’s floating around the arc, and they have to contest his long-range attempts. The three-pointer is the great equalizer for less talented teams, so if Texas can limit the damage from behind the arc, Rice will have little hope for an incredible upset.

In front of a raucous crowd of nearly 15,000, the young Texas Longhorns faced their first true road test of the season in East Lansing yesterday afternoon. While they didn’t escape the Breslin Center with an improbable win, the team responded to adversity and battled down to the final minutes in a game that was much tighter than the final score indicated.

The Horns came out of the gate very shaky, hitting just one of their first nine shots, with the make coming on a simple stickback by Jonathan Holmes. Texas turned it over five times in the team’s first ten possessions, giving fans flashbacks to the disastrous start against Georgetown in New York. After eight minutes of play, the Horns had already fallen behind 12-4 and had gone more than seven minutes without a field goal.

This time, the Longhorns didn’t wither under the pressure. The team suddenly heated up from long range and charged into the lead, while Sheldon McClellan woke up late in the half against a Michigan State defense that was keyed in on denying him the ball. He fought through tight defense, earning six free throw attempts as the half wound down, all of which he converted.

The one player Texas couldn’t stop in the first half was Derrick Nix, who had half of his team’s 28 points when they headed to the locker room. He put the Longhorn bigs in foul trouble early, sending Holmes and Cameron Ridley to the bench for extended periods of time. Michigan State continued to feed the big man in the second half, and the rotating Longhorn frontcourt was eaten alive. Nix finished with a career day, scoring 25 points to go with 11 boards. Eleven of his points came at the line, as he hit 84.6% of his free throws, well above his career average of 51%.

With Nix dominating and the Spartans putting on a run, the Longhorns found themselves down by as many as 10 points. Once again, they relied on stout defense down the stretch to hold the Spartans in check while they slowly mounted a comeback. Texas didn’t allow an offensive rebound and forced three turnovers during a seven-minute stretch where they clawed back to within two points of Michigan State. In the end, an inability to score in the clutch allowed the Spartans to slowly pull away over the final two minutes.

What looked good

Once again, the Longhorns were active in setting screens for their shooters, who had to fight through tight defensive pressure on every cut and curl. Texas has been much more active on the offensive end in their last four games, looking like a completely different team than the one that stood around on the court in the Maui Invitational. Javan Felix logged 11 assists on the afternoon, hitting the shooters at the right time for midrange jumpers.

Julien Lewis was the leading scorer for Texas, putting up 16 points for the game. Ten of his points came in the second half, where he repeatedly knocked down tough, contested jumpers in the lane. He was the only Longhorn who could be counted on to consistently score as the game wound down, and his buckets kept Texas in it until the final minutes.

Lewis is much more reliable this season, thanks to his new role as a catch-and-shoot guy. Last year, he often tried to create his own looks, and especially struggled if he couldn’t get going early. Now, Felix and the Horns are working hard to get Lewis open, and his quick release means he doesn’t need much space. The tight defense he is drawing is also opening up opponents to the shot fake and drive. Julien has done this on a few occasions this year, but with future opponents likely to throw additional pressure at him, he’ll have to mix it in even more.

The most important thing for these young Horns to take from this game was the experience. They are learning to respond to adversity and different players are trying to shoulder the load down the stretch. Connor Lammert had a huge bucket in the final minutes, although it appeared to be released after the shot clock had expired. Jonathan Holmes worked hard inside during the comeback push, but had a key hoop wiped out by a controversial charge. Lewis was a workhorse, and even Ioannis Papapetrou added a key three-point play and snagged timely defensive rebounds.

The Longhorns came up short in close games time after time last season, with most of their final possessions turning into an adventure. Texas’ primary option was clearly J’Covan Brown, and many times the late-game sets were simply him clearing out and trying to drive on an isolated defender. Opponents knew that and help defense was quick to respond.

This year, there are more players who are willing to step up and the team has more options. Unfortunately, the Longhorns are still not shooting the ball consistently, so those opportunities are not being converted. Only time will tell if this leads to a repeat of last year’s close-game frustrations, or if some of the youngsters will emerge as heroes and pull out a few tight victories.

What needed work

The player that most observers expected to take over Brown’s go-to role was sophomore Sheldon McClellan. Opponents have put a lot of energy into denying him the ball and making Texas have to work very hard to free him up. It’s been a struggle for Sheldon to get going in most games this year, as he often seems frustrated by the suffocating defense.

While he fought through the pressure late in the first half and earned some trips to the line, he was forcing things from the field all game long. He knocked down only one jumper on the afternoon, a three-pointer during Texas’ first-half run. His other two buckets came on drives to the rim, and he finished with an ugly 3-for-10 line. Most importantly, he missed two technical free throws with Texas down by one in the second half, energizing the crowd and fueling a nine-point run that gave Michigan State its largest lead of the game. He pressed the rest of the way, forcing terrible, off-balance looks.

Sheldon is drawing the bulk of the defensive attention, and it is going to be that way all season long. He has to stop backing down from the challenge and continue to fight for his looks, even when blanketed by top defenders. McClellan also has to start taking the ball to the rack. With defenders right on him as he catches the ball, almost all of his shots are contested. Shot fakes and head fakes will get the defense off balance and open up driving opportunities. Even if help shuts off those lanes, it forces opponents to rotate and will open up looks for his teammates.

Felix also forced things at time, taking some of the luster off of his 11-assist performance. The Texas bigs certainly had major issues handling passes in this game, but sometimes the blame rested on the point guard. Late in the game, Lammert bobbled a pass in the middle of the lane, but Felix had thrown it low and right into the middle of a gaggle of Spartan defenders. Also in the second half, Felix zipped an inbounds pass above the head of Prince Ibeh, which the big man tipped out of bounds. Prince often has trouble handling even easy passes, so a high heater only highlighted that weakness.

Javan also failed to make layups once he got to the rim, a problem that has been a team-wide affair in recent weeks. Felix missed a pair of layups after shaking the defense, and he also lost the ball on the way up in the final possession of the first half. Papapetrou also failed to convert his own open look at the rim after deftly slipping through the Spartan D.

The missed layup was the least of the problems for Papi on Saturday afternoon, however. He once again left a ton of points at the line, making just four of his nine free throw attempts. The Longhorns missed five other free throws, hitting only 58.3% at the stripe. A miss by Lammert also came on the front end of a one-and-one in the second half, essentially costing the team a possible two points. In a game that was close until the final minutes and in which the Spartans made nearly 77% of their free throws, the charity stripe played a huge role.

Even with that many points left at the line, the biggest problem for Texas came in defending the post. Nix and sixth man Adreian Payne had their way with the Longhorn bigs throughout the game, scoring against whoever Texas threw out there. They piled up the fouls on the Texas bigs, limiting both Ridley and Holmes to less than 20 minutes.

Ibeh was the only player to find much success against Nix, blocking two shots in consecutive second-half possessions. Nix was whistled for a technical after the second block as he argued for a foul, but Ibeh could have easily earned his own T for staring down the big man as he sat on the floor. When fighting hard for a win on the road, Ibeh’s preening after a good play could have been disastrous. He has to show some maturity and restraint in the future.

The lack of double teams on Nix was mystifying, as the Spartans had struggled with that at times this year. Michigan State players often forgot to help their big man, abandoning him against the pressure when he was doubled in previous games. In addition, the Spartans’ lack of a consistent midrange game and outside shooting meant that they likely would have struggled to beat Texas with the jumper. Instead, the Longhorns waited to offer post help until after Nix had beat the primary defender, resulting in easy buckets and needless fouls.

If one thing can be taken from the Texas struggles against Nix and Payne, it’s that the post players were forced to defend one-on-one. Against a team like Baylor that has length all over the court, doubling would be much less effective. If the Longhorn frontcourt can learn from their mistakes against MSU, perhaps it will pay off against some of the bigger teams in the Big 12.

Texas will also need to lock down the defensive glass in key situations as they move into conference play. On the whole, the Longhorns did an excellent job closing out defensive possessions with rebounds, limiting the Spartans to an offensive rebounding mark of 31%. The Longhorns performed even better in that category than UConn, Kansas, and Miami did against the Spartans, holding them well below their season average of 37.4%. However, the offensive boards that Michigan State did manage to control often resulted in second chance points. One was a big bucket at the end of the first half, and a clutch three by Keith Appling during Michigan State’s second-half push came after the Spartans reclaimed one of their missed free throws.

Texas has done good work on the defensive glass this season, but has struggled when the game is on the line. An inability to box out late in the UCLA game helped fuel that Bruin comeback, and the second chance points given to Michigan State were crippling. The Longhorns have to maintain their focus and close out defensive possessions with strong rebounds when the pressure is highest.

Finally, it must be noted that once again the turnover bug cost Texas in a big way. Although the Longhorns settled down for a long stretch of the first half, the five early turnovers killed their offense for nearly eight minutes. The team wasted 26.1% of their total possessions with miscues, the worst ball-control performance since the Georgetown game, and the third-worst of the season. It’s been said time and again, but for an offense that already struggles to score points, simply throwing away possessions is a recipe for failure.

Up next: vs. Rice (3-8); Saturday, 1 P.M.

The Texas Longhorns square off with Michigan State this afternoon in East Lansing, wrapping up one of the toughest weeks of the season, both on and off the court. On Wednesday night, Texas pulled off its biggest win of the season, knocking off a ranked North Carolina squad. As the final minutes of the victory ticked away, a Yahoo! report quickly spread through the sports world, breaking the news of a season-long suspension for sophomore point guard Myck Kabongo.

As it turns out, the suspension had been handed down five days prior, on December 14th, and the Texas program was already in the process of appealing the decision. Last night, after the team had already landed in Michigan without their point guard, that suspension was reduced to 23 games. With 11 games having already been served, Kabongo will be available for the final eight regular season games and post-season play.

With all of the off-court distractions, the Longhorns still had to prepare for a very tough test in the form of another talented Spartan team. Tom Izzo’s bunch has not lost to a non-conference opponent at home since Texas stormed out of the Breslin Center with a win in December of 2010. The upperclassmen on the Michigan State roster certainly remember that game, and will be looking for some revenge this afternoon.

By the numbers

As always, Izzo’s team plays nasty defense and is a handful on the glass. Michigan State’s adjusted defensive efficiency is tenth-best in the country according to Ken Pomeroy, allowing opponents just 0.863 points per possession. With the Texas defense ranked fifth in the same metric, fans should be treated to a scrappy battle with a lot of missed shots.

On the glass, the Spartans are in the upper echelon on both ends of the court. They reclaim 37.9% of their own missed shots, ranking them 41st in the country. On defense, they limit opponents to just 27.5% of their offensive rebounding opportunities, a mark that is ranked 36th nationally.

With that prowess on the offensive glass and a pair of imposing players scoring in the paint, the Spartans have a pretty efficient offense this season. Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive efficiency numbers give the Spartans 1.077 points per possession, which ranks them in the Top 50. Michigan State does it nearly all from inside, with only 20.5% of their scoring coming from behind the arc.

Like Texas, the biggest weakness for Michigan State is turnovers. The Spartans end 23% of their possessions with miscues, while the Horns cough it up on 24.4% of their own. If the tough defenses weren’t already going to make it hard to score today, the offenses would still do their part with unforced errors.

Meet the Spartans

The man at the point is junior Keith Appling (No. 11), who is a converted shooting guard. He’s tops on the team with 15 points a game, and his 11.1% defensive rebounding rate is outstanding for a guard.

The Spartans run a ton of ball screens for their point guard, and he takes full advantage. Even though he doesn’t take a ton of threes, Appling can knock it down when opponents go under the screen. When he gets his man on his hip, Appling immediately drives it to the rack and can creatively finish through contact. At times, he’s too aggressive, as he’s picked up quite a few charging fouls while driving the lane.

With Appling at the point, freshman Gary Harris (No. 14) is at his natural position of shooting guard, and it’s allowed him to play major minutes and make a big impact in his short collegiate career. Harris is second on the team with 12.7 points per game and is winning the coach’s favor with good perimeter defense.

Like Appling, Harris is a constant recipient of perimeter ballscreens, but his repertoire is even more robust than Appling’s. He was a running back in high school, so he doesn’t shy away from contact, and loves to score through fouls at the rim. When the defense steps in to draw charges, Harris has a nice floater and a good midrange jumper that he can pull up to drain. He’s also knocking down just over 34% of his three-point looks, hitting about one per game.

Tom Izzo has lamented the lack of a shooter on his interior-oriented team, and it’s clear that Harris is one of the best options to step into that role. He has a good shot and can get hot in a hurry, but has yet to consistently put it together. He knocked down 5-of-10 in his last game against Bowling Green, but was just 1-for-7 against Tuskegee three days prior. If he can build on his latest performance with another good game against Texas, Harris could be hitting his stride just in time for Big 10 play on December 31st.

Sophomore wing Branden Dawson (No. 22) is one of the team’s most exciting players, but an ACL tear in March has slowed down his development a little bit. Dawson was starting to break out as an offensive threat at the end of his freshman year, but suffered that devastating injury in the final regular season game. He went through an incredibly rapid rehab, returning to action in just seven months. Although Dawson is missing a little bit of his explosiveness and some of the lateral quickness that made him a tough defender, he’s still been impressive this season.

Dawson is built like a tank, and when he slashes to the rim he is very tough to stop. He has good body control and knows how to protect the ball so that he can use his strength to finish through contact. He’s also a good post-up option, especially when matched up against other wing players of similar size. Dawson rebounds extremely well from the wings and is ranked in the Top 250 for offensive rebounding percentage. If he can start to consistently knock down the jumper, the sophomore will be an all-around stud.

Coach Izzo has recently favored a smaller, four-guard look with freshman Denzel Valentine (No. 45) joining the starting lineup. At 6’5″, he brings some length to the perimeter and has the handles to slash from the wings. Valentine also has excellent court vision and makes great passes once he gets the defense reacting. Unfortunately, he’s also had a terrible time with turnovers this season, so he’s not getting the opportunity to really show off those other skills. Valentine has coughed it up 27 times against just 32 assists, giving him an ugly 30.9% individual turnover rate.

The man in the middle of the new lineup is 6’9″ senior Derrick Nix (No. 25). The big man has shed a lot of weight throughout his collegiate career, but in years past has been known to put it back on during the summer. This year, he showed up in the best shape yet, and his post game looks so much smoother as a result.

Unfortunately, that lack of a shooter on the Michigan State roster has allowed opponents to sag into the lane and constantly double the big man. At times, the Spartans have been lax in hurrying to his aid, abandoning him against the pressure. When he has teammates available for the kickout, Nix does a great job of tossing it out and immediately reposting. The rest of the Spartans just need to be more alert so they can help out the big man instead of stranding him in the post.

Nix is also dominant on the glass, grabbing more than 10% of his offensive rebounding opportunities and more than 22% of his chances on the defensive end. His 7.5 boards per game are tied for tops on the team.

Adreian Payne (No. 5) is the man tied with Nix atop the team rebounding rankings, despite volunteering to take on a sixth-man role early in the year. Payne was struggling with foul trouble during the first few weeks of the season, limiting his minutes and effectiveness. Since coming off the bench, he has avoided the quick fouls and increased his playing time.

Payne is a great defensive presence in the lane, with quick hops to block shots. At 6’10”, he can clean up shots from the help side and closes out numerous possessions with authoritative defensive boards. Payne is also a very good passer, a trait that makes the Spartans very tough to stop when he and Nix share the floor at the same time. He also can knock down shots out to about 17 feet, allowing him to pull opposing bigs out of the lane to clear space. It also makes him a consistent threat to pick and pop on the numerous ball screens that Michigan State sets.

The Spartans don’t have much depth in the post, with Alex Gauna (No. 2) providing the only other option. He’s averaging just 7.2 minutes per game, but he brings the same floor-stretching abilities to the court as Payne. Gauna is not nearly the rebounder that Nix and Payne are, but he’s still able to post up and is rather slippery for a guy his size.

Coach Izzo thinks he’s going to trim his rotation to nine guys at some point this season, meaning one of his three guard reserves will likely be the odd man out. Travis Trice (No. 20) is the backup point guard, but he’s missed some time this year due to concussion-symptoms suffered after taking a shot to the nose in the season opener against Connecticut. Sophomore Brendan Kearney (No. 3) is averaging nearly 18 minutes a game and brings good length and perimeter defense with his 6’5″ frame. Fellow sophomore Russell Byrd (No. 0) is struggling with his shot as he comes back from foot injuries, sinking just 19.4% of his 31 three-point attempts.

Keys to the game

1) Avoid settling for bad shots – Michigan State’s defense can be suffocating at times, and their presence on the defensive glass is downright dominant. The Spartans have allowed opponents to post effective field goal percentages greater than 47% in only four games — losses to UConn and Miami, and three-point victories over Kansas and Louisiana-Lafayette. In each of those games, the Spartans still held their opponents to offensive rebounding marks below 25%.

Even though Texas did a great job reclaiming missed shots against North Carolina on Wednesday, it’s doubtful they can consistently find much success today against the Spartans. That makes every shot more important, and Michigan State is great at forcing their opponents to take bad ones. The Longhorns have struggled this season to shoot the basketball, even when they work to get great looks. They will have to be patient today and actually capitalize when they are able to get good opportunities.

2) Capitalize on Spartan mistakes – The Spartans have had trouble hanging on to the basketball all season long, posting turnover marks north of 25% on five different occasions. With Michigan State’s defense being so difficult to crack, Texas needs to take advantage of these miscues and score some points before the Spartans can get entrenched in their half-court D.

It’s also important to note that many of Michigan State’s turnovers are live-ball ones, meaning that the Longhorns should have ample opportunity for runouts and fast break buckets. If Texas misses out on these opportunities, like they did in a crushing loss to UCLA, there will be no chance of an upset this afternoon.

3) Limit turnovers – This has been a staple in the Keys to the Game, and despite recent improvements by the Horns, it remains in today’s preview. Points will be very hard to come by this afternoon, and turnovers will only serve as a mistake that hurts on both ends of the court. Texas cannot afford to give up easy points to Michigan State, and the Horns cannot waste their own offensive possessions.

The Longhorns have posted turnover percentages of 15.5%, 17.4%, and 16.1% in their last three games. A performance similar to that will keep them in position to challenge for an upset today. Conversely, careless mistakes like those seen in the Maui Invitational and against Georgetown will quickly squash any hopes Texas has of pulling off a shocking road win.

Last year, the one consistent storyline throughout the season was a lack of quality wins. The Longhorns spent the entire season on the bubble, with every win crucial to what would eventually become the program’s 14th-consecutive NCAA bid. Thanks to an inability to win close games, Texas finished the season with just three victories against the RPI Top 100, while its fans sweated the bubble until a Big 12 tournament win over Iowa State.

Although most fans have already written this season off as an abject failure, the truth is that we’re only about a third of the way through it. The absence of both Jaylen Bond and Myck Kabongo has been crippling, as evidenced in low offensive rebounding numbers and a sky-high turnover rate. The return of one or both of those players can only make the Longhorns better and increase the odds that they pull off some quality wins in league play.

Unfortunately, the Big 12 is under-performing to an alarming degree this season. Predicted to be a deep, difficult conference in 2012-13, the Big 12 now looks like Kansas, a couple of challengers, and a whole lot of muck. That gives the Longhorns six conference games against current RPI Top 50 teams and another six games against teams ranked between 51 and 100, with West Virginia just a few losses away from falling below that critical threshold.

Texas could certainly build a résumé on wins against OU, Baylor, and Iowa State, but it wouldn’t hold much weight when considered alongside a loss to D-II Chaminade. So, while no one would consider a mid-December game a “must win,” the importance of tonight’s game against UNC cannot be understated. The Tar Heels are young and inconsistent, and this match-up provides the opportunity for a quality win that can add some meat to the tournament résumé.

To pull off the upset without those two key Longhorns would not only impress the critics, but it would also give this inexperienced team some confidence heading into conference play. On the other hand, a loss does little to harm reputation. Many observers have already written the obituary on the 2012-13 Texas season, and another loss would likely go unnoticed. Tonight is a low-risk, high-reward situation for these young Longhorns, who have made some key improvements in the last two weeks. Now, fans will get to see what direction the team will be headed in for the next three months.

By the numbers

As usual, the Tar Heels love to get out and push the tempo, with their 75.4 possessions per game the third-fastest adjusted pace in Division I. While no one would confuse North Carolina with the pressure-loving teams of Mike Anderson, the Tar Heels can and do force mistakes, and they are always looking up court after rebounds and made buckets.

With John Henson and Tyler Zeller gone to the NBA, North Carolina is no longer an inside-out team that looks for paint touches every possession. Instead, this year’s Tar Heel squad loves to shoot it from outside. The team takes 28.7% of its shots from behind the arc, up from 23.5% a season ago. While North Carolina is not going to indiscriminately fire up three-pointers, this season definitely features a different approach to the half-court game.

As a result of the new look, North Carolina hardly ever gets to the free throw line. The Heels have a free-throw rate of just 22.6%, meaning they earn about one free throw for every five field goal attempts. That is the fifth-worst mark in all of D-I hoops, but it might actually be good for the sanity of North Carolina’s fans. The Heels have made less than 65% of their shots at the charity stripe, putting them in the bottom third nationally.

When looking at the big picture, the Heels are an imposing bunch on both ends of the court. North Carolina has an adjusted offensive efficiency of 1.08 points per possession, while allowing opponents an adjusted mark of just 0.891 points each time down the floor. Good interior defense and a solid job on the glass are both big components of that defensive dominance.

Meet the Tar Heels

With Kendall Marshall joining Henson and Zeller in this summer’s NBA Draft, the Heels have to rely on freshman Marcus Paige (No. 5) to run the show. The Iowa product is more of a scoring point, which is a marked difference from the pass-first approach that Marshall brought to the table. Paige is still adjusting to the college game, as evidenced by his early problems with turnovers. But after coughing it up four times in his collegiate debut and not logging a single assist, he’s steadily improved that ratio to a 1.36 assist-to-TO mark on the season.

Senior Dexter Strickland (No. 1) has spent much of his collegiate career as the backup point guard in Chapel Hill, and the arrival of Paige allowed him to move off the ball to the shooting guard spot. Still, he can’t completely leave that old role behind. With Paige more of a scoring guard, Strickland has actually taken over the team lead in assists. He’s averaging five per game, and that resurgence as a floor general gives Coach Roy Williams incredible flexibility in the backcourt with a pair of guards that can both run the point and also score in bunches.

Strickland is much better as a slashing, driving guard, but he’s clearly been working on the jump shot. Although he’s only made 26.7% from behind the arc this season, Dexter is still taking the triples and long-range twos a few times each game. That persistence seems to finally be paying off, as his accuracy on mid and long-range jumpers has improved over the last few games.

The third guard for the Tar Heels is 6’7″ sharpshooter Reggie Bullock (No. 35). That height makes it tough for opposing guards and wings to prevent him from launching three-pointers, and he’s more than happy to take advantage. More than 55% of his shots have come from behind the arc this season, and Bullock has knocked down 46.9% of those attempts. He’s not a guy who is going to put the ball on the floor and get to the rack, so opponents have to stay in his shirt and communicate when he’s run off of screens.

Although Bullock is an incredibly dangerous offensive weapon, the team’s new star is sophomore James Michael McAdoo (No. 43). A relative of the great Bob McAdoo, this soft-spoken big man is a handful for opposing defenses. McAdoo has a good post repertoire, a great midrange game, and is a confident, aggressive driver. He also has a quick release and makes swift post moves, so defenses are often caught off-guard when he suddenly pops an uncontested look. McAdoo is tops on the team with 15.4 points per game and 8.3 boards.

The fifth starting spot has belonged to a rotating cast of characters, but it was most occupied by freshman Brice Johnson (No. 11). At 6’9″, the freshman from South Carolina is still very thin and wiry compared to most opposing post players. Still, he has a knack for finding the ball near the rim, and he makes great cuts without the ball to get himself in scoring position. His great hops and athleticism also make him tough on the boards, and he’s already provided some rim-rattling dunks this season. With some more experience and a few more pounds of muscle, Johnson is going to be a very exciting player for the Heels.

The other post option is fellow freshman Joel James (No. 0), a 6’10” big man with a soft touch and a lot of raw talent. He didn’t begin playing organized basketball until his sophomore year of high school, so there’s still a lot of learning on the fly for James. He lets himself get pushed out of position on the blocks and on the boards, so he will have to improve his court awareness and his assertiveness to make a bigger impact for UNC. Self-improvement has been no problem for James, however, a fact he proved by losing more than 50 pounds in one summer. If he applies that mental focus to improving his post game, this skilled big is going to be a beast in the ACC.

Off the bench, P.J. Hairston (No. 15) is a strong, aggressive guard who can put the ball on the floor and get to the rim. At 6’5″ and 220 pounds, he’s a handful for most defenders, and he has the strength to fight through contact. When he’s being confident and decisive, Hairston can take over a game. When he’s not providing that spark for the offense, it clearly shows for North Carolina. He did not make the trip to Indiana after spraining his knee in practice, and the offense sorely missed his ability to create as they were blown out by the Hoosiers.

Leslie McDonald (No. 2) is a junior who also brings a scoring punch off the bench. His 10 points per game is fourth on the team, despite the fact he’s started only one game. McDonald shoots threes even more often than Bullock, having taken nearly 57% of his shots from long range this year. Bullock does top him in one category, though, as McDonald’s 46.7% accuracy is just a bit shy of the team lead.

The final member of the core rotation is freshman J.P. Tokoto (No. 25), a solid defender with a lot of length. Tokoto has an impressive wingspan that he uses to disrupt passing lanes and challenge shots, and his lateral quickness on the perimeter makes it tough to beat him. Like fellow freshman Johnson, Tokoto has athleticism in spades and possesses the ability to jump right out of the gym.

Desmond Hubert (No. 14) and Luke Davis (No. 4) will also likely see limited action in this one. Hubert was the fifth starter for many of the early-season games, but his ineffectiveness in the post has limited him to a reserve role. Davis provides a few minutes per game at the point, and is playing as a walk-on after transferring following his freshman season at Gardner-Webb.

Keys to the game

1) Stop the ball in transition – North Carolina is practically unstoppable when they are piling up the points in transition, as the sophomore class of Longhorns can remember well from their visit to Chapel Hill last season. The Tar Heels are still inconsistent in the half-court set, a fact made glaringly clear in their losses to Butler and Indiana. If Texas can prevent the Tar Heels from getting easy buckets in transition and force them to work for their points in the half court, that already-tough Longhorn D can really stifle the UNC attack.

2) Push McAdoo out of his comfort zone – One player who is especially dangerous even in those half-court sets is the future NBA star McAdoo. If he gets the ball in a post-up situation, he doesn’t even need time to feel up the defender and then make a move. He can quickly spin and pop a jumper, or go right to the effective baby hook. Where he’s most deadly, though, is catching the ball as he’s already moving towards the hoop. With his long legs and one power dribble, he can get to the rim in an instant and finish for two.

For Texas, this means that McAdoo has to be forced off of the blocks and has to receive passes with his back to the hoop or his momentum moving away from the rim. There’s no way Texas can do this on every possession, but if they can force McAdoo into the spots they want him for much of the game, it will certainly limit his effectiveness.

3) Silence the three-point shooters – Shutting down McAdoo won’t make much of a difference if Bullock or McDonald get hot from long range. Both players have proven they can score in a hurry, as McDonald dropped six triples on Mississippi State and another five on UAB, while Bullock has made at least three of them in five different games. Although it can be very hard to prevent the lanky Bullock from getting his shot off, the Longhorns need to chase him off the perimeter and they need to challenge McDonald’s looks.

4) Clean up the defensive glass – Even if Texas can do all of these things on defense, it still will be a futile effort if they don’t close out possessions with defensive rebounds. Fortunately, the Heels have had some major struggles on the offensive glass against quality competition, so the chances are good for the Longhorns.

In UNC’s win over East Carolina on Saturday, not a single Tar Heel post player reclaimed one of his team’s missed shots. It was the third time Carolina was held to an offensive rebounding mark of less than 30%, with the other two coming in losses to Butler and Indiana.

Texas has done an average job so far this season on the defensive glass, but the team is coming off two strong rebounding performances against UCLA and Texas State. The Longhorns held both teams to offensive rebounding marks under 27%, which is impressive when you consider the length on that Bruin squad with the likes of Kyle Anderson and the Wear twins. If the Horns can continue that recent trend tonight, they can keep themselves in this ballgame until the end.

5) Hang on to the ball – As promised, the perennial Key to the Game returns for the North Carolina match-up. While the Heels aren’t a team that is pressuring 100% of the time, they do key in on weaknesses that present opportunities to trap and press. Against a Longhorn team that has frequently turned it over, you can be sure that Coach Williams will throw in a few extra pressure situations to force mistakes and fuel that transition game.

The Longhorns have done a much better job at controlling the basketball in their last two games against UCLA and Texas State, but it will be challenging to do the same against North Carolina tonight. The last time they faced a team with this much length and athleticism, the Longhorns turned it over on 32% of their possessions against Georgetown. If they can avoid that kind of meltdown tonight, the Horns will at least have a chance to pull off an impressive upset.