3.05.11
Posted by Ryan Clark at 3:55PM

#8/7 Texas Longhorns (24-6 overall, 12-3 Big 12) at Baylor Bears (18-11, 7-8)
Ferrell Center | Waco, TX | Tip: 8 P.M. | TV: ESPN

With Kansas winning at Missouri and Texas A&M knocking off Tech at home, the top four seeds in the Big 12 tournament are already decided. The Jayhawks have claimed their seventh-straight conference championship with a 14-2 league record, and for the fourth time during that run, Kansas has earned sole possession of the conference crown. A&M’s victory locked them into the 3-seed, while resurgent Kansas State is now the league’s fourth-place team. The Longhorns, who opened league play with a sparkling 11-0 mark, are now guaranteed to finish in second place thanks to a 1-3 mark in their last four games.

Perry Jones III is averaging 16 points in Big 12 games
(Photo credit: Rod Aydelotte/Associated Press)

While that means Texas has nothing to play for in terms of conference seeding, the Horns still have the NCAA tournament to worry about. Their recent slide has eliminated any hopes of securing a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance, and another loss tonight could end their tenuous hold on a 2-seed. Baylor, meanwhile, is still one of the “First Four Out” in Joe Lunardi’s latest bracket projection at ESPN. Like Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas State before them, the Bears will be desperate for a résumé-building win over Texas.

The first meeting

After Texas had won their first nine league games by double-digits, the Baylor Bears finally ended that streak in the season’s first meeting between the two teams. The Longhorns sprinted out to an early lead, which grew to 19 at one point in the first half. Baylor’s LaceDarius Dunn made things interesting, though, scoring 22 points in the second half to get the Bears within three points in the final minutes. The Longhorns managed to ice things at the line, and escaped with a 69-60 win.

Tristan Thompson was the headliner for Texas, posting a double-double with 17 points and 13 boards. He even blocked three Baylor shots, and managed to outshine vaunted freshman Perry Jones III in a head-to-head battle. For the Bears, Dunn’s 26-point outburst led the way, with Jones’ 13 point performance the only other double-digit scoring output on the team.

Since then…

Since their impressive comeback fell just short against the Longhorns, the Bears have been something of a bi-polar team. I’d love to work in a timely joke about how Baylor has been bi-winning, but the fact of the matter is that they have had some very questionable losses over the last month.

Although the Bears completed a season sweep of Texas A&M with a win on Saturday night, they lost all three of their other conference games since facing Texas in Austin. Those losses included a head-scratching defeat to Texas Tech in Waco and a meltdown in the second half against Oklahoma State on Wednesday night. Perhaps they just needed more tiger blood.

Meet the Bears

For an in-depth look at the Baylor players and statistics, please read the preview from this season’s first meeting.

Keys to the game

While the offensive numbers have been ugly for Jordan Hamilton over the last two-plus weeks, his defense has been just as bad. In his final 2011 edition of the Power Rankings, SI’s Luke Winn published an excellent set of screenshots from the debacle in Colorado that underscored just how mercurial Hamilton’s defensive effort can be.

Without a doubt, Hamilton must bounce back for the Longhorns to win on the road tonight. He simply must improve the 30.6% shooting mark he has posted in the last five games, especially when you consider how Texas also suffers on the defensive end when his shot isn’t falling. Even if Hamilton is struggling from the floor, he has to remain mentally checked in on D against a loaded Baylor roster.

In addition, Texas needs to remain active on the glass. They did an excellent job in the first game, holding Baylor to a 23.8% mark on the offensive glass. Against the tall, talented frontline from Waco, that dominant of a performance was completely unexpected. While we aren’t holding our breath for a repeat of that performance tonight, if Texas can at least limit Baylor’s second chances, it will keep them in the game even when their own shots aren’t falling.

Finally, the Longhorn offense can’t grind to a halt. The first time these two teams played, Texas had one stretch of more than six minutes without a field goal. In the team’s recent losses to Colorado and Kansas State, they had similar droughts from the field.

Texas cannot allow their offense to devolve into four players standing around while Hamilton or J’Covan Brown make ill-advised drives from the corner that result in ugly, challenged shots. The Longhorns must get back to what worked for them earlier in the season, with motion off the ball and post players who could make the quick pass when defenses collapsed. If they can’t, the Texas offense will once again look like it has in the last two-plus weeks, and the Horns will likely be looking at another Saturday road loss to yet another bubble team.

3.01.11
Posted by Ryan Clark at 9:41AM

Kansas State Wildcats 75, #8/7 Texas Longhorns 70

If Rick Barnes and the Longhorns could have their way, the month of February would disappear from the calendar. In 2008, the Longhorns went on a perfect 8-0 march through the month of February, and then cruised all the way to the Elite Eight of the NCAA tournament. Since then, Texas has posted a 13-11 mark during the last three Februaries and has failed to make it out of the second round of the Big Dance. Last night, the Longhorns continued their February blues, as they closed out their home schedule with a disappointing loss to Kansas State, the team’s third defeat in its last four games.

Jacob Pullen scored 16 second-half points
(Photo credit: Michael Thomas/Associated Press)

Kansas State stifled Texas with stout interior defense, while the Longhorns went completely cold from long range. On the offensive end, the Wildcats rode a strong second-half performance from Jacob Pullen and the hot shooting of Rodney McGruder to win their seventh game in the last eight.

What looked good

The Longhorns attacked the strong K-State frontcourt early and often. Tristan Thompson played nothing like a freshman, scoring 18 first-half points to carry Texas through the first half. The big man even made four out of his five free throw attempts, a shocking number considering his season average was just south of 48% coming into the game.

The Longhorns also benefited from strong rebounding in the first twenty minutes, reclaiming 48% of their misses. With the team shooting so poorly, the offensive rebounds helped to mask the inefficiency and allowed Texas to earn second-chance points that kept them ahead for nearly the entire first half.

The early defense from Dogus Balbay and Cory Joseph on All-American Jacob Pullen also helped Texas maintain their narrow lead. While big man Curtis Kelly was hitting fadeaway jumpers like they were layups, Pullen was practically a non-factor. Balbay and Joseph fought through screens and stayed right in his shirt, limiting him to a 2-of-7 start from the field.

What needed work

Unfortunately, the game was once again a tale of two halves. While the first half was far from great for the Longhorns, the second one was a complete disaster. Texas opened the second stanza with a scoring drought of nearly five minutes, letting the Wildcats claim the lead and build it as large as six points before Jordan Hamilton finally made a bucket with his foot on the three-point line.

That basket was only Hamilton’s second of the entire game, and it came after he had already missed ten shots and turned it over three times. His offensive attack consisted of trying to shake his man off the dribble, but the Wildcats were prepared every time. When Hamilton attacked from the wings, he was met with extra defensive resistance, but never knew what he was doing with the ball. It would be nice to give him credit for not forcing up a shot every time, but in the rare cases he did try to make a pass, he waited until he was already in midair or tried to throw it through the legs of about 18 different people.

Jordan Hamilton couldn’t get it going against KSU
(Photo credit: Ricardo B. Brazziell/American-Statesman)

In the last five games, Hamilton is just 26-of-85 from the floor (30.6%). In the three losses to Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas State, the sophomore is just 9-of-28 from behind the arc (32.1%), a far cry from the 41.5% mark he posted in Texas’ first ten conference wins.

The key difference is that Hamilton’s three-point attempts now mostly come off of the dribble, oftentimes with a defender nearby. When the Texas offense was clicking through the month of January, Hamilton was coming off of curls for lightning-quick catch-and-shoot plays, which he was knocking down with regularity. Now, Hamilton is having to create his looks with his hands instead of his feet, and it’s killing the Longhorn offense.

The rest of the Longhorns were just as cold from the field. While Thompson was carrying the team, the rest of the Texas lineup combined to shoot just 25.9% from the field. The Longhorns made just three of their first 14 three-pointers, before J’Covan Brown drilled a pair in the final minute to make things interesting. The 27.8% mark behind the arc was the worst for Texas since going 2-of-8 in a blowout win over A&M at Reed Arena.

Defensively, the second half was an embarrassment. For a team that was posting historic defensive efficiency numbers just three weeks ago, the abundance of complete breakdowns in the half-court set was completely unacceptable. The Wildcats were able to get to the rack with no problem in the second half, scoring 14 points in the paint during the final 20 minutes.

Meanwhile, Rodney McGruder, a 42% career three-point shooter, constantly found himself wide open in the corner on kickouts. While the Longhorns were selling out to stop the drive, they seemingly forgot how to close out on shooters, and McGruder drilled four key three-pointers to make them pay. Just as with Colorado’s Levi Knutson on Saturday, Texas completely ignored the scouting report and consistently lost the best pure shooter on the floor.

A final point to illustrate the defensive collapse of the Longhorns is the sudden ballooning of their opponents’ effective field goal percentage. Fellow tempo-free stat nerds will already be familiar with the concept, but allow me a brief explanation. Essentially, eFG is an alteration of the classic field goal percentage that gives extra weight to the three point shot. Since a three is worth 1.5 times the points of a regular shot, it is worth that much in the calculation of the shooting percentage.

During Texas’ 11-game winning streak to open conference play, the Longhorns held opponents to an eFG of just 39.2%. In their three losses to Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas State, the Longhorns have allowed an eFG of 55.5%. Texas is not just losing games. The team is having an outright defensive collapse.

Next up: at Baylor (18-10 overall, 7-7 Big 12); Saturday, 8 P.M.

2.28.11
Posted by Ryan Clark at 4:03PM

Kansas State Wildcats (20-9 overall, 8-6 Big 12) at #8/7 Texas Longhorns (24-5, 12-2)
Frank Erwin Center | Austin, TX | Tip: 8 P.M. CT | TV: ESPN

Just three weeks ago, Texas was the talk of the college basketball. The Longhorns stampeded through a brutal five-game stretch that included four games against ranked opponents, winning them all by double-digits. They ended Kansas’ seemingly interminable home-court winning streak at 69 games, and shot to the top line of every bracketologist’s S-curve.

Frank Martin thought Toy Story 3 should win Best Picture
(Photo credit: Orlin Wagner/Associated Press)

The last two weekends changed all of that. Texas dropped back-to-back road games against Nebraska and Colorado, two teams mired in the middle of the Big 12 standings. While losing on the road in a major conference is never a shock, the manner in which the Longhorns stumbled in Lincoln and Boulder has fans concerned. Issues that plagued the team last season have suddenly reappeared, and Texas seems to have lost its killer instinct.

With two conference losses now on the ledger, Texas has lost its edge in the conference race. The Longhorns and Jayhawks are starting the final week of the season in a dead heat, but the two teams seem to be headed in decidedly different directions. If Texas has any designs on a conference title, they must bounce back against a nasty Kansas State team tonight. If Texas comes out with a stagnant offense and lackadaisical defense once more, it could be the harbinger of a very short March for the Horns.

By the numbers

As always, Frank Martin has his Wildcats playing excellent defense. Nationally, their adjusted defensive efficiency of 0.911 points per possession is ranked 25th, but they are just as strong in the tough Big 12. K-State is third in the league behind Texas and Kansas, allowing just 1.009 points each time down the floor.

The most surprising number for Kansas State’s defense is their turnover percentage. In a league with the high-pressure Missouri Tigers, the Wildcats actually have the best TO% mark in conference play. K-State has forced conference opponents into miscues on 22.7% of their possessions, and has forced turnover percentages north of 25% in six different league games.

Kansas State is great on the offensive glass
(Photo credit: Rich Sugg/Kansas City Star)

Offensively, Kansas State uses an excellent frontcourt to fuel their scoring. While the Wildcats have an effective field goal percentage that is right in the middle of Division I hoops, their adjusted offensive efficiency is 57th nationally. The ‘Cats score 1.097 points each time down the floor, thanks in large part to the fact that their big men reclaim the misses. Kansas State’s 41.7% offensive rebounding percentage is fifth-best in the country.

Tonight’s game is bound to be a physical one, which is terrible news for fans of both teams. Kansas State and Texas are almost equally horrible when they get to the free throw line, with the Wildcats hitting 64.3% of their attempts and the Longhorns sinking 64.2% of theirs. While that means that interior fouling won’t hurt Texas as often on the scoreboard, their lack of frontcourt depth is something to be concerned with.

Meet the Wildcats

It has been a long and tortuous road for Coach Martin and the Wildcats this year. In the off-season, they lost big man Dominique Sutton when he transferred to UNC Central to be closer to his children. Then, after a troubling non-conference run in which Coach Martin openly questioned his team’s leadership, the Wildcats also lost Freddy Asprilla and Wally Judge to mid-season transfers.

With Jacob Pullen and Curtis Kelly both earning suspensions for taking discounts at a clothing store, and Pullen later declaring he wouldn’t play if the team was in the NIT, it has been a disjointed season to say the least.

Despite all of that, a huge home upset of Kansas two weeks ago seems to have righted the Wildcat ship. K-State has reeled off four straight wins, and if not for a loss by mere milliseconds in Boulder, the Wildcats would be riding a seven-game streak heading into tonight’s game.

As any college basketball fan knows, Jacob Pullen is the big man on campus in Manhattan. A preseason All-American, his career-high 38 points against Kansas fueled the Valentine’s Day upset. Since then, he’s averaged 26 points in wins over Oklahoma, Missouri, and Nebraska.

Jacob Pullen can finish through contact
(Photo credit: Rich Sugg/Kansas City Star)

Pullen is a frightening match-up for any team because he can score in a variety of ways. He has an incredibly quick release on the catch-and-shoot, so the Wildcats are constantly running screens off the ball to free him up for the jumper. When Pullen gets open behind the arc, you can practically put the points on the scoreboard. In his last four games, the senior is shooting a blazing 65.2% behind the arc.

Unfortunately, the Longhorns can’t simply play him as a catch-and-shoot threat. With the ball in his hands, Pullen’s hesitation moves and powerful first step make him a constant threat to get to the rack. Even though he’s a smaller guard, he has the strength and athleticism to finish over and around bigger players, and easily scores through contact.

Kansas State’s other senior leader is big man Curtis Kelly, who came to Manhattan after a brief stint at Connecticut. He is a force inside, where he constantly comes down with offensive boards and sinks bunnies. Kelly is also a threat to score off the midrange jumper, though, and that ability allows him to pull opposing forwards out of the paint and open up driving lanes for Pullen and the other guards.

The main knock on Kelly’s game, though, is his raw emotion. He easily lets foul calls get in his head, and it can affect the other aspects of his game. If Kelly is clicking, he’s a tough player to stop. But frustrate him with the whistle or some solid post defense, and his performance typically goes downhill.

Joining Kelly in the frontcourt is Jamar Samuels, who was the Big 12’s Sixth Man of the Year last season. He’s a skilled offensive forward, who has the ability to face up post defenders and blow by them on the dribble. Samuels also can score with his back to the basket, as he often backs his man right down the lane for an easy two. On the glass, Samuels is one of the team’s best rebounders, claiming more than five boards a night.

The biggest surprise for the Wildcats this season has been the emergence of Rodney McGruder. An athletic swingman, the 6’4″ sophomore contributes all over the floor. He has a great three-point shot — it was his three-pointer that was just fractions of a second late in Boulder — but he can also body up bigger players inside. He leads the team with more than six rebounds per game, and is the team’s second-leading scorer with more than 11 points.

McGruder is a valuable hybrid player because while he contributes inside, he also has the handles and speed to attack from the wings or get out in transition. If Texas is able to limit the damage from Pullen tonight, it will be up to McGruder to pick up the slack for the Wildcats.

In the backcourt, the Wildcats have had another pleasant surprise from freshman Will Spradling. The son of a coach, he is a heady player who is averaging more than six points a game thanks in large part to his ability to read defenses and make smart cuts without the ball. Spradling also has a nice three-point shot, but his slow release makes it easier for defenses to close out on him behind the arc. Despite that, Spradling has still made 36% of his threes this season.

Another smart Wildcat is Shane Southwell, a sound defender who is practically a coach on the court. He can often be seen shouting out instructions to his teammates on the defensive end, or even physically pushing them in the right direction when things are breaking down. Offensively, he’s a non-threat, but is useful in setting screens to free Pullen or the cutting bigs. While he won’t fill up a stat sheet, Southwell’s high basketball IQ has earned him 12 starts in conference play.

Although the Wildcats have lost some players over the last few months, they still have a quality bench. In addition to Spradling, Coach Martin also employs a pair of quick guards in Martavious Irving and Nick Russell. Both can easily beat defenders off the dribble and have a knack for finding their way to the rim when the offense is stalling out. While the two guards each play less than 15 minutes a night in Big 12 games, they will likely chip in a few layups tonight.

Henriquez-Roberts is a solid post defender
(Photo credit: Rich Sugg/Kansas City Star)

Also coming off the bench is seven-footer Jordan Henriquez-Roberts, who has made massive strides in his sophomore year. As a freshman, he often looked stiff and awkward with the ball, but now is providing a few points and rebounds off the bench every night. At 7’0″, the one thing that has always come naturally to Henriquez-Roberts is post defense, and as a result he has a team-high 34 blocks despite playing less than 13 minutes per game.

Keys to the game

The biggest issue the Longhorns will face tonight is their inability to keep opponents off of the offensive glass. Kansas State is one of the best teams in the country at reclaiming their own misses, so Texas must limit second chance points in this one. In losses to Connecticut and Nebraska, the Horns allowed their opponents to snag more than 43% of their missed shots. If K-State can do the same thing tonight, it could push them to a huge road upset.

If the Longhorns want to get back on the right track, Jordan Hamilton must bounce back. In his last four games, Hamilton shot just 31% from the field, and was 8-of-24 behind the arc in losses to Nebraska and Colorado. If Hamilton can resist the urge to get into a game of one-upmanship with Pullen and instead take smart shots within the offense, his points will come naturally. If not, it’s very possible that the sophomore star could cripple the Texas offense.

On the other side of the ball, the Longhorns must communicate on defense. Kansas State will constantly set screens, oftentimes multiple ones just seconds apart, all in an effort to free up Pullen for the open looks. The Longhorns have to be on the same page when it comes to handling these screens, and they must also be alert to offer help defense when the K-State guards penetrate off the dribble.

Texas’ defense looked like a sieve on Saturday afternoon, and the Wildcats will have a field day if there is a repeat performance tonight. The Longhorns must get back to the sound team defense that carried them through the first five weeks of conference play.

2.27.11
Posted by Ryan Clark at 12:01PM
TEAM W L REMAINING GAMES
Texas 12 2 vs. KSU (2/28), at BU (3/5)
Kansas 12 2 vs. A&M (3/2), at Mizzou (3/5)
Texas A&M 9 5 at KU (3/2), vs. TTU (3/5)
Missouri 8 6 at Neb (3/1), vs. KU (3/5)
Kansas State 8 6 at UT (2/28), vs. ISU (3/5)
Baylor 7 7 at OSU (3/1), vs. UT (3/5)
Colorado 7 7 at ISU (3/2), vs. Neb (3/5)
Nebraska 6 8 vs. Mizzou (3/1), at CU (3/5)
Oklahoma State 5 9 vs. BU (3/1), at OU (3/5)
Oklahoma 4 10 at TTU (3/2), vs. OSU (3/5)
Texas Tech 4 10 vs. OU (3/2), at A&M (3/5)
Iowa State 2 12 vs. CU (3/2), at KSU (3/5)

The big picture

Another road loss for the Texas Longhorns has revived the Big 12 title race, with the Longhorns and Jayhawks now in a dead heat heading into the final week of the season. Both schools host solid teams in their midweek games before tackling tough road tests in Saturday’s season finales. Texas holds the head-to-head tiebreaker by virtue of their win over Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse, which means the Longhorns would be the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament if the two teams remain deadlocked at season’s end. The Big 12 awards co-championships rather than relying on those tiebreaker scenarios, so if the Jayhawks win their final two games, they will claim their seventh-consecutive conference title.

The Aggies are on the verge of sealing their first-round bye, which they failed to do in Waco on Saturday night. Now A&M needs only a win or a loss by both Kansas State and Baylor to lock things up. With the Longhorns facing K-State and the Aggies taking on Kansas, this could mark the first week in the history of the world that fans of the two schools root for their rivals. Of course, since the Aggies host Texas Tech in their season finale on Saturday, there’s little doubt that they will be able to avoid the first day of games in Kansas City.

Nebraska essentially scuttled its NCAA hopes with a loss to Iowa State yesterday, but Baylor and Colorado stayed in the hunt with big home wins over ranked opponents. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi slotted Baylor as one of his last four teams in the bracket late Saturday night, while he had Colorado among the first four teams out. Both teams have very winnable road games next on the docket, so they must simply take care of business to keep those NCAA hopes alive.

Mid-week games

Kansas State at Texas; Monday, 8:00 P.M. CT (ESPN)
LRT’s full preview of the Kansas State/Texas game will be available on Monday.

Baylor at Oklahoma State; Tuesday, 6:00 P.M. CT (ESPN2)
The Bears completed the season sweep of A&M on Saturday night, and have a shot to knock off Texas at home just a week later. The Bears can’t afford to overlook this game in between the two big ones, as the Cowboys typically defend their home court well.

In the first meeting between the two schools, Baylor destroyed Oklahoma State, 76-57. The Bears were led by freshman phenom Perry Jones III, who scored 24 points and grabbed eight rebounds. Baylor limited the Cowboys to just 0.814 points per possession, and claimed an insane 87.5% of their defensive rebounding opportunities. With OSU’s Darrell Williams still battling legal issues, Baylor should be able to dominate the rebounding department once again.

Missouri at Nebraska; Tuesday, 7:00 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
Had Nebraska actually taken care of business at Hilton Coliseum yesterday, this would have been a game with huge bubble implications. Now, the Cornhuskers are playing for pride against an old Big 8 rival. The Tigers were one of the Big 12’s hottest teams before they stumbled on the road against Kansas State yesterday. That loss moved Mizzou to a disappointing 1-5 record on the road in conference play, a statistic that is worrisome for Coach Mike Anderson when you consider how well Nebraska has played at home this season. If the Tigers get tripped up once more on the road, they may find themselves playing on the first day of the Big 12 tournament.

Colorado at Iowa State; Wednesday, 6:30 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
Iowa State burst Nebraska’s bubble yesterday, and Wednesday they have a chance to do the same thing to Colorado. The Buffaloes blew the Cyclones out when they met in Boulder earlier this month, winning by a 95-69 count. Five different Buffaloes scored in double figures in that game, with Alec Burks posting a 19-point, 10-rebound double-double. Colorado scored an incredible 1.208 points per possession against Iowa State, and limited the ‘Clones to just 13.9% success on the offensive glass. While Boulder provided a distinct home court advantage in the first game, there’s no reason that Colorado shouldn’t finish off the season sweep of Iowa State on Wednesday night.

Oklahoma at Texas Tech; Wednesday, 6:30 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
In a game that means nothing beyond seeding in the first day of the conference tournament, two scuttling programs will battle it out in front of roughly 791 fans at United Spirit Arena. The Sooners are on a seven-game losing streak, and could potentially match the nine-game losing streak they finished last season with. The Red Raiders, meanwhile, have lost six out of their last seven. If you spend two hours watching this game and have no connection to either school, psychiatric referrals will be provided.

Texas A&M at Kansas; Wednesday, 8:00 P.M. CT (ESPN2)
When Texas ended Kansas’ 69-game home winning streak earlier this season, they were the first road team to win in Lawrence since Texas A&M pulled off the feat on February 3rd, 2007. Unfortunately for the Aggies, Acie Law IV will not be walking through the door on Wednesday night. Unless, of course, he has some front-row seats at the Phog.

The Aggies have a frontcourt that has been exposed by more physical opponents this year, and it’s very likely that Thomas Robinson and the Morris twins will do just that on Wednesday night. Even if A&M imposes their will and forces Kansas into their style of grind-it-out basketball, the efficiency of the Jayhawk offense is far too potent for the Aggies to pull off the upset.

2.26.11
Posted by Ryan Clark at 9:17PM

Colorado Buffaloes 91, #5/5 Texas Longhorns 89

For the second consecutive Saturday, the Texas Longhorns walked quietly to the locker room as students rushed the court behind them. This afternoon, the overjoyed co-eds were clad in gold and black, as Colorado notched their third victory over a Top 25 opponent by shocking Texas, 91-89.

On its own merits, a Colorado win at home wouldn’t be that shocking this season, even against a vaunted opponent. It was the way in which the Buffaloes won this afternoon, though, that has the college basketball world buzzing. Alec Burks and Levi Knutson combined for 54 points — 37 of them in the second half — to erase a 22-point Texas lead en route to the win.

Colorado fans had reason to celebrate on Saturday
(Photo credit: Ed Andrieski/Associated Press)

The win puts Colorado in good position to close the regular season on a high note, and gives the Buffs another quality win to add to the ever-important résumé. With a road game against Iowa State and a home date with Nebraska left on the docket, there’s no reason that Colorado shouldn’t finish the season with 20 wins and a 9-7 mark in the Big 12.

Throw in a pair of victories over Kansas State and wins against Texas and Missouri, and suddenly the Buffaloes look like they could make the Big Dance despite a completely empty non-con profile.

For Texas, the post-season picture lost some of its shine with today’s loss. The Longhorns are now in a first-place tie with Kansas in the Big 12, although they do hold the head-to-head tiebreaker for the conference tournament’s No. 1 seed if the two teams remain tied at the end of the season. To win the title outright, Texas must now knock off both Kansas State and Baylor, plus get help from Texas A&M or Missouri in their games against KU.

At the national level, the loss also could alter the team’s route through the NCAAs. While the loss to Nebraska already put a dent in Texas’ hopes for a No. 1 seed in the tournament, this loss will likely guarantee that the Longhorns will be slotted no higher than a 2-seed. Things could certainly change between now and Selection Sunday, but unless the Longhorns knock off Kansas a second time in the conference tournament, the 1-seed seems out of the question.

That also means that instead of a short trip to San Antonio for possible second weekend action in the NCAA tournament, the Horns could end up in Anaheim, New Orleans, or Newark. There’s certainly the chance that the Longhorns could still be put in the closest region as a 2-seed, which happened for Texas in 2008 when they were slotted in the Houston regional. Of course, it’s all speculation at this point, but had Texas not dropped these two games, there would be nothing to speculate about.

J’Covan Brown sparked Texas early
(Photo credit: Ed Andrieski/Associated Press)

What looked good

In the early going, Texas did a fantastic job working the ball inside against a smaller Colorado team and taking advantage of open threes when the Buffaloes collapsed inside. Tristan Thompson and Cory Joseph combined for seven of Texas’ first 11 points, while Gary Johnson scored at will inside and finished the game with 17 points.

After being tied at 11 coming out of the under-16 media timeout, J’Covan Brown fueled a 14-0 run for Texas with hot shooting from behind the arc. He looked unstoppable early, combining his great shooting with excellent court vision. Brown kept the offense churning early, consistently finding his teammates for good looks inside, and he finished the game with five assists. Unfortunately, things went downhill late in the first half.

What needed work

The first inklings of trouble cropped up late in the first, as Colorado chipped away at a 22-point Texas lead just before the half. The Buffs broke out a zone, and the Longhorns seemed completely confounded by the simple 2-3, despite the fact that they had decimated Baylor’s zone just a few weeks prior.

On one particular possession late in the first half, Gary Johnson received an entry pass at the free-throw line, the softest part of a zone defense. Instead of making a quick read and kicking to an open teammate as the defense trapped down on him, he made repeated pass fakes as Buffaloes swarmed around him, and he ultimately had to kick it back out to a guard at the top of the key.

The offensive troubles continued into the second half, as the same Longhorn team that put up 48 points in the first 20 minutes could manage just 14 points in the first 11:15 of the second half. Colorado shut down driving lanes, and Texas could do nothing more than back the ball out and settle for jump shots. When the team made it to the line, they simply couldn’t convert. The Longhorns finished just 20-of-38 at the line.

Alec Burks dropped 33 points on the Texas defense
(Photo credit: Ed Andrieski/Associated Press)

Meanwhile, the Texas defense was having a meltdown of epic proportions. Burks and Knutson went off on their 37-point outburst in the second half, with the Longhorns seemingly unable to stop anything. Burks needed just inches to get off — and drill — shots in front of Texas defenders, but the Longhorns constantly left Knutson wide open as they scrambled to stop ball penetration. Knutson entered the game as the Big 12’s best three-point shooter with a success rate of 47%, and he made 3-of-5 in a 2:50 span that put Colorado up for good.

Even down the stretch, Texas failed to put the clamp down on defense. With the game still in doubt, the Longhorns managed to come up with a few key stops, only to then give up weak offensive rebounds and easy tip-ins., Sometimes, the Horns simply turned the ball right back over with sloppy play.

On one particularly crushing possession, Texas played 34 seconds of excellent defense, only to have Jordan Hamilton step out of bounds trying to catch the airballed shot. With one second left on the shot clock, Knutson missed a three off the inbounds, but Colorado grabbed the miss and ended the possession with a three by Burks.

As the second half wound down, it seemed that there was no stopping Colorado. Not only were they scoring at will while Texas couldn’t buy a bucket, but the ball was bouncing their way. Still, Texas somehow put on another furious late rally, as they did in Nebraska a week prior. Once again, the Longhorns fell short, and the questionable shot selection certainly didn’t help matters.

After Colorado’s Cory Higgins stepped out of bounds with the Buffaloes up four and just 29 seconds left on the clock, Hamilton launched a line drive from 25-feet that clanked off the iron and essentially sealed the game. Earlier, Brown had wasted a Colorado turnover on an over-and-back call by jacking up a contested shot off a curl just seconds into the possession.

While the Longhorn shooters have often showed poise in tough road environments, the latest trend is for them to try to silence the crowd with ill-advised looks. In the team’s back-to-back road losses, Hamilton was a combined 10-of-40 from the field, including an 8-of-24 mark from behind the arc. If the sophomore star is going to lead Texas through adversity, he needs to create open looks, not just rifle it up from behind the arc.

Before fans jump off of the bandwagon, though, they should take a brief glance at the history book. The last Longhorn team to lose in Boulder was the 2003 squad, one that also lost in their Big 12 tournament opener against Texas Tech. That Texas team bounced back quickly and made it all the way to the Final Four. If this year’s Longhorn team can simply re-discover their killer instinct, the future can still be promising.

Next up: vs. Kansas State (20-9 overall, 8-6 Big 12); 8 P.M. CT, Monday

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